ipcc_wg3_ar5_final-draft_postplenary_chapter8

Final Draft Chapter 8 IPCC WGIII AR5
There are regional differences in transport mitigation pathways with major opportunities to shape
transport systems and infrastructure around low‐carbon options, particularly in developing and
emerging countries where most future urban growth will occur (robust evidence, high agreement).
Transport can be an agent of sustained urban development that prioritizes goals for equity and
emphasizes accessibility, traffic safety, and time‐savings for the poor while reducing emissions, with
minimal detriment to the environment and human health. Transformative trajectories vary with
region and country due to differences in the dynamics of motorization, age and type of vehicle fleets,
existing infrastructure, and urban development processes. In least developed countries, prioritizing
access to pedestrians and integrating non‐motorized and public transport services can result in
higher levels of economic and social prosperity. In fast growing emerging economies, investments in
mass transit and other low‐carbon transport infrastructure can help avoid future lock‐in to carbon
intensive modes. Mechanisms to accelerate the transfer and adoption of improved vehicle efficiency
and low‐carbon fuels to emerging and developing economies, and reducing the carbon intensity of
freight in emerging markets, could offset much of the growth in non‐OECD emissions by 2030. It
appears possible for LDV travel per capita in OECD countries to peak around 2035, whereas in non‐
OECD countries it will likely continue to increase dramatically from a very low average today.
However, growth will eventually need to be slowed in all countries. (limited evidence; medium
agreement) [8.7, 8.9]
A range of strong and mutually‐supportive policies will be needed for the transport sector to
decarbonize and for the co‐benefits to be exploited (robust evidence, high agreement).
Decarbonizing the transport sector is likely to be more challenging than for other sectors, given the
continuing growth in global demand, the rapid increase in demand for faster transport modes in
developing and emerging economies, and the lack of progress to date in slowing growth of global
transport emissions in many OECD countries. Transport strategies associated with broader nonclimate
policies at all government levels can usually target several objectives simultaneously to give
lower travel costs, improved mobility, better health, greater energy security, improved safety, and
time savings. Realizing the co‐benefits depends on the regional context in terms of economic, social,
and political feasibility as well as having access to appropriate and cost‐effective advanced
technologies. (medium evidence; high agreement) [8.4, 8.7]
In rapidly growing developing economies, good opportunities exist for both structural and
technological change around low‐carbon transport. In OECD countries, advanced vehicle
technologies could play a bigger role than structural and behavioural change, since economic growth
will be slower than for non‐OECD countries. Policy changes can maximize the mitigation potential by
overcoming the barriers to achieving deep carbon reductions and optimizing the synergies. Pricing
strategies, when supported by education policies to help create social acceptance, can help reduce
travel demand and increase the demand for more efficient vehicles (for example, where fuel
economy standards exist) and induce a shift to low‐carbon modes (where good modal choice is
available). For freight, a range of fiscal, regulatory, and advisory policies can be used to incentivize
businesses to reduce the carbon intensity of their logistical systems. Since rebound effects can
reduce the CO 2 benefits of efficiency improvements and undermine a particular policy, a balanced
package of policies, including pricing initiatives, could help to achieve stable price signals, avoid
unintended outcomes, and improve access, mobility, productivity, safety, and health. (medium
evidence; medium agreement) [8.7, 8.10]
Knowledge gaps in the transport sector
There is a lack of comprehensive and consistent assessments of the worldwide potential for GHG
emission reduction and especially costs of mitigation from the transport sector. Within this context,
the potential reduction is much less certain for freight than for passenger modes. For LDVs, the longterm
costs and high energy density potential for on‐board energy storage is not well understood.
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