Bryan Leyland MSc, FIPENZ, FIEE, FIMechE Consulting Engineer ...

S1 Submission on Renewables
Bryan Leyland MSc, FIPENZ, FIEE, FIMechE
Consulting Engineer
www.bryanleyland.co.nz
Most of my professional life has been involved in renewable electricity
generation
I have:
- been responsible for many of the small hydro schemes in NZ since
1970
- involved in most of the large hydro schemes in NZ
- worked on biofuels, tidal power, windpower
- familiar with wave, tidal stream, and solar power schemes
- provided expert evidence on the economics of windpower
projects in New Zealand
I am operator and part owner of a 920 kW small hydro scheme in
Golden Bay
I see no need for special policies to promote renewables - apart from
fixing the RMA!

S2 The characteristics of windpower
• Unpredictable
• the output fluctuates rapidly on a relatively short timescale
• it cannot be predicted more than a few hours ahead
• calm periods sometimes exist all over New Zealand
• no more than 5-10% can be relied on to be available over winter
peak demand periods
• the timing cannot be predicted accurately
•
The capacity factor is low - 35 to 40% in New Zealand,
20-30% overseas
• Windpower is at a maximum in the springtime
and a minimum during the autumn and early
winter peak demand periods

S3 High demand and not much wind
Wind

S3 High demand and not much wind
Not much wind power
Price spike at
peak demand
Wind

S4
Wind can’t give us a reliable and economic supply
Power from a 184 MW windfarm in 2008
Measured every 30 minutes
The current cost of windpower is
$3100/kW and >12c/kWh
The current cost of geothermal is
$4500/kW and ~9c/kWh
Jan May August Dec

Manorburn pumped storage scheme
• 1000 - 1500
MW
• 400% increase
in existing
hydro storage
• Storage and
backup for dry
years and~1500
MW of wind
• Cost $2-$3
billion
• Uneconomic
under present
market

Nuclear/windpower comparison
• Notional 5000 MW isolated system
• Cost of supply from nuclear power plus
conventional pumped storage
• Nuclear power is a baseline that is viable anywhere in
the world
• In New Zealand, geothermal, coal, gas or hydro would
probably be cheaper
• Cost of supply from windpower plus longterm
pumped storage

Nuclear Plus Pumped Storage 8.6c

Windpower + pumped storage 14.7c

S5 Cost of Windfarms

S6
80 % of the time the output was below 130 MW (70%)

S7 Output from 184 MW NI Windpower
Low output in critical dry period

S8 Tidal stream power
• SeaGen prototype
weighs 1000 tonnes.
• Delivered full power
(1200 kW) in December
08 but does not seem to
have completed three
months reliable
operation
• Seems to be further
ahead than anyone else

S9 Kaipara Tidal Stream Power

S10 Pelamis - Sea snake
• Deployed in
Portugal last year
and now
abandoned for
“financial and
technical reasons”
• Originally
developed by Prof
Normal Bellamy at
Coventry
University in the
1980s. He
abandoned it in
favour of “Sea
Clam” - a much

S11 Olmedilla Solar Voltaic Farm
• 60 MW for $530
million = $8800/
kW
• ~85 GWh pa
• ~60/c/kWh
• Loses 60%
output on a
cloudy day and
100% every night
• Subsidy = 560%
of wholesale
price for 20+
years!
• A lot of glass to
clean!

S12 Kalpasar Project, India
This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!

S12 Kalpasar Project, India
This scheme is not economic - in spite of 8-9m tides!