Application of GIS to the Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
Application of GIS to the Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
Application of GIS to the Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
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<strong>Application</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>GIS</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> modeling<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate change impacts<br />
Dave Sauchyn<br />
University <strong>of</strong> Regina<br />
RS / <strong>GIS</strong> Worksop, Winnipeg<br />
9 June 2000
A triadic hierarchy <strong>of</strong> landscape sensitivity: Some sources and controls <strong>of</strong> disturbance<br />
and resistance<br />
Level Disturbance Resistance<br />
physiographic<br />
divisions<br />
soil landscapes and<br />
small watersheds<br />
slopes and<br />
channels<br />
• climatic change: frequency<br />
and magnitude <strong>of</strong><br />
hydroclimatic events<br />
• tec<strong>to</strong>nism<br />
• intrinsic geomorphic<br />
thresholds in large systems<br />
• climatic variability<br />
• major hydroclimatic events<br />
• coupling <strong>of</strong> systems<br />
• hydroclimatic events<br />
• soil hydraulic conductivity<br />
• local relief and slope<br />
• climatic change: surface and<br />
sub-surface water balances<br />
• ecoclimate and surficial<br />
geology<br />
• geomorphic his<strong>to</strong>ry<br />
• landscape disorder<br />
• land cover<br />
• shear strength <strong>of</strong> surficial<br />
materials<br />
• channel roughness<br />
• slope morphology<br />
• plant cover
Scales <strong>of</strong> geomorphic systems: The triadic hierarchy<br />
Level Function Spatiotemporal characteristics<br />
physiographic divisions boundary conditions cyclic; substitution <strong>of</strong> space for time<br />
soil landscapes and<br />
small watersheds<br />
focal level for<br />
environmental<br />
problems<br />
graded; scaling up from slopes and<br />
channels<br />
slopes and channels process mechanics steady (time independence);<br />
integration <strong>of</strong> events over small areas<br />
and short time spans
Geographic characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mixed grass prairie ecoregion<br />
General<br />
• 138,600 km 2 • > 50% <strong>of</strong> Canada’s agricultural land<br />
Ecoclimate<br />
• subhumid <strong>to</strong> semiarid • mixed grass prairie<br />
• high inter-annual climatic<br />
variability<br />
• extreme temperature seasonality<br />
Hydrography<br />
• major rivers are throughflowing • significant snow melt run<strong>of</strong>f<br />
• mostly intermittent streams • large area <strong>of</strong> internal drainage<br />
Geomorphology<br />
• poorly integrated drainage network • underfit streams in glacial meltwater valleys<br />
• glaciated sedimentary basin • weakly linked slopes and channels
Surficial Geology, Wood Mountain Map Sheet<br />
AF<br />
C<br />
CS<br />
DE<br />
GF<br />
GL<br />
LAKE<br />
LL<br />
R<br />
RG<br />
TG<br />
TGL<br />
TS<br />
TSs<br />
TT
Disturbance<br />
• annual s<strong>to</strong>rm<br />
• 10-yr s<strong>to</strong>rm<br />
• soil water s<strong>to</strong>rage<br />
• contributing area<br />
• slope gradient<br />
• local relief<br />
• wind magnitude-frequency
Rainfall erosion potential near Swift Current
Resistance<br />
• land cover<br />
• soil texture<br />
• precipitation/ potential<br />
evapotranspiration<br />
• surficial geology<br />
• bedrock geology<br />
• connectiveness<br />
• landscape position
Population,CDs4&8inSaskatchewanand1&4inAlberta<br />
120000<br />
Rural population<br />
Swift Current & Medicine Hat<br />
80000<br />
40000<br />
0<br />
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1996
This large belt <strong>of</strong> country embraces districts,<br />
some <strong>of</strong> which are valuable for <strong>the</strong> purposes <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> agriculturalist, while o<strong>the</strong>rs will for ever be<br />
comparatively useless. ... The least valuable portion<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> prairie country has an extent <strong>of</strong> about 80,000<br />
square miles, and is that lying along <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
branch <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Saskatchewan, and southward from<br />
<strong>the</strong>nce <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> boundary line, ...<br />
CAPT N . JOHN PALLISER,<br />
London, July 8, 1860
Landscape change safety fac<strong>to</strong>r<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> barriers <strong>to</strong> change<br />
magnitude <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> disturbing forces<br />
(Brunsden and Thornes, 1979: 476).
Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)<br />
A = RKLSCP<br />
A: average annual soil loss<br />
R: rainfall erosivity<br />
K: soil erodibility<br />
L: slope length<br />
S: slope gradient<br />
C: land cover fac<strong>to</strong>r<br />
P: conservation fac<strong>to</strong>r
Resistance<br />
• land cover<br />
• soil texture<br />
• precipitation/ potential<br />
evapotranspiration<br />
• surficial geology<br />
• bedrock geology<br />
• connectiveness<br />
• landscape position
Brown Soil Zone / Mixed Grass Prairie<br />
• 138,600 km 2<br />
• subhumid <strong>to</strong> semiarid<br />
• glaciated plains<br />
• poorly integrated drainage<br />
• weakly linked slopes and channels<br />
• few permanent streams and lakes<br />
• many internally drained basins<br />
• extreme temperature seasonality<br />
• high inter-annual climatic variability
Census Divisions 1 & 4 in Alberta<br />
and 4 & 8 in Saskatchewan
<strong>Climate</strong> Impact Assessment<br />
• forecasting change <strong>to</strong> natural / human systems<br />
without specific reference <strong>to</strong> location<br />
• evaluating models at point locations and<br />
interpolating among points; spatially discontinuous<br />
• evaluating a model by map unit; spatially<br />
continuous<br />
• spatial modeling <strong>of</strong> individual variables; spatially<br />
continuous and maintains spatial integrity <strong>of</strong> data
<strong>the</strong>re is no desert country<br />
CPR promotional car<strong>to</strong>on, 1896<br />
<strong>the</strong> monumental blunder <strong>of</strong> western settlement<br />
David C. Jones, Empire <strong>of</strong> Dust (1987: 21)
Cummulative Soil Erosion Potential<br />
(Kirkby and Cox,1995)<br />
N 0<br />
r 0<br />
CSEP = 2N r 2 0 0 exp(-h/r ) 0<br />
mean annual rain days<br />
mean rainfall per rain day<br />
h threshold soil water s<strong>to</strong>rage
Old Wives’s Lake / Dirt Hills
I think civilization will be hard pushed for room<br />
when it requires <strong>the</strong> coteau <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Missouri, at<br />
least for agricultural purposes.<br />
Commissioner G.A. French<br />
North-West Mounted Police<br />
Old Wives Creek, 1874
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