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Business Investing in Malaria Control: Economic Returns and ... - Path

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Zambia Sugar collected detailed absence data that allowed for a further plausibility check. As displayed <strong>in</strong><br />

Figure A.10, the rates of absence (sick rates) were <strong>in</strong>deed positively correlated with malaria <strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>and</strong><br />

the reduction <strong>in</strong> malaria co<strong>in</strong>cided with a reduction <strong>in</strong> absence. Over the past decade, all-cause sick rates<br />

appear to have fallen by nearly two thirds, converg<strong>in</strong>g towards a long-term level of 1.57%.<br />

Figure A.10<br />

Sick rates (average daily absence due to malaria illness) at Zambia Sugar 2001–2009<br />

Sick rate (percentage)<br />

8<br />

Over time<br />

Relation to malaria<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

100.00<br />

10.00<br />

1.00<br />

0.10<br />

Monthly malaria <strong>in</strong>cidence (percentage)<br />

Sick rate (percentage)<br />

8<br />

Pre-2003 average percentage: 4.49<br />

6<br />

2003 average percentage: 2.84<br />

4<br />

Long-term level percentage: 1.57<br />

2<br />

0<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

Source: Company data.<br />

Note: The long-term level is def<strong>in</strong>ed through an autoregressive model.<br />

BUSINESS INVESTING IN MALARIA CONTROL: ECONOMIC RETURNS AND A HEALTHY WORKFORCE FOR AFRICA<br />

55

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