PBL rapport 550026002 Calibration and validation of the land use ...

Simulated 2000 land use using continuous model
Figure 5.2
Observed 2000 land use (left) and its simulation with the continous model, using 1993 land use as input (A) and the
multinomial regression specification (B) as input for the suitability maps
better than the models that simulate a lot of change (Pontius
Jr. et al., 2008).
Another factor which influences the simulation outcome, is
the fact that a static analysis of land-use patterns has been
performed at one moment in time. No information on landuse
change was included in the analysis. The analysis of recent
changes, rather than the long-term historical development
of the current land-use pattern, may offer useful clues for
pinpointing the location factors, which help explain changes
in the near future. Therefore, future calibration research will
include an analysis of changed land use, and will incorporate
specific maps related to, for example, municipal building
plans. In fact, most Land Use Scanner applications include a
wide range of spatially explicit policy and planning maps.
5.2
Continuous model
5.2.1 1993 land use as input
When the 1993 land use is used as input for the 2000 simulation,
84% to 99% of the cells per land-use type can be correctly
simulated (Table 6). A score that is comparable to the
validation results of the discrete model, discussed before. The
related map of dominant land use (10A), in contrast, better
resembles the observed land use. This is mainly caused by the
lack of scattered residential areas, which were described in
Validation results 33