POLITICS OF THE FUTURE Jim Dator PolSc 672 Fall 2010 ...

POLITICS OF THE FUTURE
Jim Dator PolSc 672 Fall 2010
Department of Political Science
University of Hawaii at Manoa
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu
(April 27, 2010 version. Detailed syllabus with readings to follow)
This course is a graduate-level introduction to futures studies from a political science
perspective. It serves as the introductory core course for students of the Alternative
Futures MA option in the Department of Political Science, and for anyone else interested
in learning what futures studies is and is not.
Unlike recent versions of Pols 672, this course will focus on learning and using
some of the major theories and methods of futures studies.
8/25. Introduction to the course and to each other. Some key terms and concepts
Assign: Come to class on September 1 prepared to introduce briefly a theory of
social change.
9/1. Overview and discussion of various theories of social stability and change.
9/8 and 15. What is "technology" and how can it be a key agent of social stability and
change?
9/22 and 29. A brief historical survey of the rise of futures studies and the various
"schools" and uses of futures studies, with an emphasis on "The Manoa School".
10/6. The importance of the past and present in anticipating the futures: Using STEEP,
Delphi, and trend analysis to identify "driving forces" from the past and present pushing
society into the futures.
10/13. Using environmental scanning and emerging issues analysis to identify things that
might/will break the "trends" and create new problem/opportunities.
10/20. The key role of "images of the future" in futures studies and in anticipating
alternative futures.
10/27. Grow, Collapse, Discipline, Transform: the four generic images of the futures.
Developing and using the four generic alternative futures scenarios . Written and other
forms of presentation.
Assign: Find, develop scenarios for, and present on 11/3 an "emerging issue".
11/3. Presentation and discussion of emerging issues.
Assign: Form research teams and begin developing alternative futures scenarios,
based on the theories and methods presented in this class.
11/10. Group Research

11/17. Group Research
11/24. Group inclass reports
12/1. Group inclass reports
12/8. Planning and conducting a futures visioning process to help a community create
preferred futures. Linking futures to planning, policy, and day-to-day decision-making
and administration.
12/15. Individual final projects due: "Alternative Futures of X"