China Hype China Bashing

APEGBC MED/MMCD Joint Annual Conference
China Hype, China Bashing:
Macro Transportation Planning in Fast Urbanizing China
Jinhua Zhao
University of British Columbia
Nov 25, 2011

China Hype
1

China Hype and China Bashing
• GDP > Japan
• Urbanize 370m people without
slum
• Raise millions of people from
poor
• Million miles of road, billions of
square foot of housing, biggest
car market
• Biggest CO 2 emitter
• 16 of 20 most polluted cities
• Political reform lags behind
• Inequality:
– urban – rural; east – west; within city
– from one extreme to another extreme

the Context of Fast Urbanization

Percentage of urbanized population in 2009
Source: UN Human Development Report 2007/2008
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
11

Urban and Rural Population of the World, 1950-2050
7,000
6,000
Population (Millions)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
—
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Urban
Rural
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
12

Urbanization in China 2010-2040
Urban
636m
Natural Growth
Urban
~1,000m
2010
Rural
779m
Natural Growth
2040
Rural
507m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
13

Rebuild all North America cities in 30 years
and their transportation infrastructure…
14

1980
Urbanization in China 1980-2010
2010
2040
Urban
190m
Natural Growth
Urban
636m
Natural Growth
Urban
~1,000m
Rural
863m
Natural Growth
Rural
779m
Natural Growth
Rural
507m
1.05 Billion 1.42 Billion 1.49 Billion
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:
World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
15

Where is global passenger traffic going?
2050
36
Passenger transport development
2000 – 2050 (trillion pkm)
+95%
+21
2000
17
15
10
9
+14
3
6 6
+4 +4
2 2
Source: 2010 ProgTrans AG
Transport forecasts adopted from
Mobility Model (IEA/OECD)
Trend forecast scenario (2004)

Which continents will face the traffic growth?
(Trillion pkm / tkm)
+ 4.0
+ 3.0
5.2
3.8
Former Soviet Union
11.6
15.1
12.0
+ 6.4
+ 6.8
North
America
11.2
5.4
Europe
Africa
Middle
East
Asia
India
China
8.4
4.1
8.0
7.0
3.5
South
America
3.8
1.2
2.1 1.8
6.8
3.5
4.2
1.3
Oceania
= Growth of Passenger Transport by 2050 = Growth of Freight Transport by 2050
= Passenger Transport 2000
= Freight Transport 2000
Source: 2010 ProgTrans AG

GHG Emissions from Transport 2000-2050
(Mt CO 2 )
+129%
562
+ 385
177
Former Soviet Union
3,233
North
America
+ 580
1,810
Europe
China
1,530
+ 1,237
1,996
1,230
Africa
Middle
East
Asia
India
1,350
+ 990
+ 1,278
252
+ 942
348
1,290
South
America
579
+ 420
159
505
+ 290
215
744
+ 606
138
360
656
+ 167
489
Oceania
= additional CO 2 -Emissions by 2050
= CO 2 -Emissions 2000

Per Capita GHG Emissions from Transport 2000-2050
(t CO 2 /cap/a)
2.3
+ 1.6
Former Soviet Union
0.7
5.5
+ 0.6
4.9
+ 1.2
North
America
0.8
2.0
South
America
+ 1.3
2.0
3.3
0.3
+ 0.1
0.2
Europe
Africa
Middle
East
1.4 + 0.1 0.5
+ 0.4
1.3 0.1
Asia
India
3.4
China
+ 0.9
0.8
+ 0.4
0.4
1.0
Oceania
+ 0.8
0.2
= + carbon footprint (CO 2 /cap) 2050
= carbon footprint (CO 2 /cap) 2000
2.5

In terms of transportation, where is China heading for?
or
?
20

The story of two billion cars…
21

Bidding to Drive:
Car License Auction Policy in Shanghai
Student: Tracy Chen

China surpassed US: the largest car market

Car Ownership growth: Beijing vs. Shanghai
Million vehicles
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Year on year growth rate (%)
Shanghai Beijing Shanghai(Year growth rate) Beijing (Year growth rate)

Bidders, plates and bidding prices
Thousands
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-03
Feb-04
Jul-04
Dec-04
May-05
Oct-05
Mar-06
Aug-06
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Amount/ Price (¥ )
Plate Issued/month Number of bidders Average bid price

The most expensive piece of iron

Factors influencing public acceptance

Acceptance, Effectiveness and Equity
2.00
1.50
Acceptance Effectiveness Affordability Equity Implementation
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00

4 High Level Policy Options
• License Auction
• Parking Charge
• Fuel Tax
• Congestion Charge
• Improve Public Transit

4 High Level Policy Options
0.6
0.3
License auction
Acceptance
0.0
-0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6
-0.3
Increase parking
charging
Congestion
charging
Fuel tax
-0.6
Effectiveness

Car Owners vs. Non-Car Owners
0.6
Acceptance
0.3
0.0
-0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6
-0.3
Licencese
auction
Parking
charges
Congestion
charges
Fuel tax
-0.6
Effectiveness
car owners: red
non-car owners: blue

Policy Transfers
• Singapore Shanghai
– Car industry
– City state vs. city in a region
• Shanghai Beijing?
– Bidding vs. lottery
• Shanghai Vancouver?
– Local context vs. generic human nature

A 2 Trillion Yuan Promise in China?
High Speed Rail and Commuting Patterns
Initial Observations
Students: Jessie Wang and Cindy Tse

China High Speed Railway Network Map by 2020
2010:
>200 km/h: 7,431 km
>350km/h:1,995 km
2020:
>200km/h: 16,000km

HSR Highway Air
Travel Time (hours)
Distance window
for HSR
Travel Distance (km)

Yangtze River Delta High Speed Rail
– within about one hour travel time
1% Land
6% Population
20% GDP

H-N HSR Route
21 stops located along the most prosperous cities in the Yangtze Delta
region, including Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Zhenjiang

Promises of HSR
• Speed, Travel Time Saving?
• Environmental? Replacing Air Travel?
• Symbolic value?
• Agglomeration
– Urban and regional agglomeration (one key Justification of HSR)
– Increasing productivity: labor pooling
– Regional integration/Mega-region

Down to the earth
Is it realistic to commute across cities using HSR?

Prerequisite 1: Infrastructure and service
• Opened in July 1st, 2010
• 301km route in 73-120 minutes
• Coverage: Shanghai to Nanjing 6:00am-9:30pm
• Headways: 123 pairs of trains each day
• Average: 7.5 minutes
• Peak hours: 8am-11am: 5.3 minutes

Prerequisite 2: Household Finance
Housing + Transportation Cost
Kunshan
Neighbourhood
Shanghai
Neighbourhood
Housing price (RMB) 1.1million 2.5 million
Monthly Mortgage
(RMB)
Monthly transport cost
(RMB)
Total monthly cost
(RMB)
4,157 9,447
1,218 304
5,375 9,752
Total cost is 45% less

Questions on HSR and Commuting
• Now: is this happening?
• Future: possible use of HSR for commuting?
• Reality check: barriers and potentials

METHOD – On-board and stations Surveys
• Pilot Survey
– March 22, 2011, On-board survey on H-N HSR at 8-9am
– 29 questionnaires
• Full Survey
– Two weeks in April-May 2011 AM and PM peak periods
– On-board and stations survey, H-N HSR, 472 questionnaires
– 471 valid questionnaires
• 40% of the responses were collected on-board
• 60% of the responses were collected at four stations:
– Nanjing, Shanghai Hongqiao, Zhenjiang, Kunshan South

Method – Survey Design
• Current travel: purpose, frequency, price, access and
egress, waiting
• Commuting and relocation opportunities
• Acceptable maximum commuting time
• Demographics and socioeconomics information

Is HSR commuting happening?

Trip Purpose: minimal working trips
Other
4%
Work
5%
Tourism/Social
23%
Business
37%
Personal Business
14%
Shopping
1%
School
16%

Trip Frequency
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
19% >= once a week
5%
0%

Prior Mode
Which mode(s) did you usually use before the H-N HSR is available?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Future potential

Future Potential: Self Evaluation
Would you considering commuting using HSR in the future?
Yes
7%
No
52%
Maybe later
41%

Relocation Opportunities
Would you consider relocating home or work because of HSR?
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Home
Work
20%
10%
0%
Yes No Maybe later

Potential Locations
Which city would you choose if you were to move home or work?
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Residential
Employment
5%
0%

Future Potential: Expectation for Others
Would you think HSR will attract other people to consider commuting across cities?
Maybe
33%
Yes
33%
No
34%

Is this potential realistic?
• Travel Time
– Total tolerable commuting time
– Access, egress and waiting
• Pricing
– Ticket affordability
– Target markets
• System Integration: HSR + Urban Transportation

Tolerable Commuting Time
Maximum One-Way Door to Door Travel Time
40%
35%
30%
25%
27% >= 1 hour
20%
15%
10%
10% >= 1.5 hours
5%
0%
2.5 hrs
Time

Access and Egress Time
25%
20%
15%
10%
Access
Egress
5%
0%
60
(minutes)

Waiting time in stations
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30
(minutes)

Total Out-of-HSR Travel Time
Time (minutes) Access Egress Waiting Total
10th percentile 15 15 15 45
20th percentile 20 20 20 60
Median 30 35 40 105

Ticket Price
Full Ticket Price HSR Conventional
First Class 233 CNY (36 USD) 113 CNY (17 USD)
Second Class 146 CNY (22 USD) 94 CNY (14 USD)
HSR Price Premium
• Second-class 55%
• First-class 106%

Who paid for your ticket?
Company
36%
Myself
64%

Is the price affordable?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Very expensive Expensive Acceptable Very cheap

Target Markets: Who Should HSR Serve?
• Business travelers
Trip purpose (current)
Other
4%
Work
5%
• Migrant workers
• Commuters
Tourism/
Social
23%
Business
37%
Personal
Business
14%
Shopping
1%
School
16%

Target Markets: Who Should HSR Serve?
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Business Commuters Migrant workers
Note: Based on Pilot Survey only

Integration: HSR + Urban Transportation
• Modal integration: various access and egress modes: subway, bus, taxi
• Price Integration: discount on transfers, one price for the whole trip
• Ticketing Integration: universal transit pass
• Information Integration: information sharing, integrated journey planner

Access and Egress Modes
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Access
Egress
10%
5%
0%
Subway Bus Taxi Car
Passenger
Car Walk Bike

Integration Between HSR and Subway/Bus
Importance
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
42%
50%
10%
0%
6%
HSR and Subway/Bus Integration
Very Impo. Impo Unimpo Very Unimpo
2%

Integration Between HSR and Subway/Bus
Satisfaction of current service
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
38%
24%
14%
10%
7%
7%
HSR and Subway/Bus Integration
Very Unsatisfied (-3) -2 -1 1 2 Very Satisfied (3)

Importance of various service aspects
HSR and Subway/Bus Integration
Monthly HSR pass for communters
Transfer Information
Company partially pay HSR tickets
Car Parking for HSR stations
Joint Pass for HSR and Subway/Bus
Shortening checking-in time
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Satisfaction of existing service integration
Clear signage in the stations and streets
Time table for bus and subway in the HSR …
Shelter in Bus Stop
Schedule and Pricing Info online and phone
Transfer Walking Distance
Transfer Ticket Purchase
Safety in Walking Transfer
Coordination between HSR, Subway and …
Car parking in HSR stations
% Unsatisfied
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Conclusion
• HSR as commuting mode: not there yet
– Current commuting use: minimal
– Future use: potentially high
• Key barriers
– Access, egress and waiting
– System integration: physical, information, fare & ticketing
• Target markets
– Business travelers: high
– Commuters: low
• Agglomeration and productivity gain: long way to go

Acknowledgement
• We would like to thank Jessie Wang and her husband in their great effort
of conducting the surveys in the H-N HSR systems.

Reviving Bicycles in Beijing Neighborhoods
Student: Maggie Wang

Travel Pattern Change in Beijing
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Others
Cycling
Public Transit
Taxi
Private Car
20%
10%
0%
1986 2000 2005 2006 2009
Data Source: 2005 Beijing Transportation Survey Report; Jiang et al. (2009)

What happened?

Land use, roads and cars
5000
Number of Cars in Beijing
(thousand)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1997 2000 2005 2010
2005 Beijing Transportation Survey Report
Guo et al., 2009; City Work Report 2010

Public Transit:
great expansion and low price
• 12 new subway lines opened
since 2008
• Many subway lines have reached
their maximum capacities
• Heavily subsidized tickets
cost over 10 billion RMB
each year
• Bus: < 1 CNY

Physical Barriers

What’s wrong with bike?
Bye-bye, bike!
Speed?
Cost?
Reliability?
Environment?
Health?

What’s wrong with bike?
People’s preference change
• Public policy makers
• Government researchers
• Transportation planner
• Layperons

What’s wrong with bike?
Public Policies
• Action Plan of UrbanTravel Demand
Management in China (1995)
• Beijing Declaration on Urban Transportation
Development Strategy in China (1995)
• Designing Code for Urban Road Transportation
Planning GB 50220 (1995)
• Policies on electric bike use (2002, 2006)
• Law on Road Traffic Safety (2004)
• Beijing’s Master City Plan (2005)
• Energy Conservation Law (2008)
• ―Revive Bike Use in Beijing‖ (2009)

What’s wrong with bike?
A government
transportation
researcher
How do you think of bicycle?

Beijing Subway
2000

2011

2015

What’s wrong with bike?
A government
transportation
researcher
How do you think of bicycle?
I don’t think about bicycles.

What’s wrong with bike?
A Planner
“I feel lonely being a pro-biking planner…”

What’s wrong with bike?
A layman
“I would rather cry in a BMW than
smile on my bike.”
“The first thing to get rid of when
getting richer is my bike!”

Historic Review
Pre-Bicycle
Period
Early Adoption
of the Bicycle
Use
Rapid Growing
Bicycle Use
Declining Period
Revival
1200-1900 1900-1949 1950-1990 1991-Now
?
Western toy
Upper class
fancies
Every family
necessities
Failure of life
Active lifestyle
Pro-environ.
Cool person

Concluding remarks

China Hype and China Bashing
High Speed Rail
China Hype
Ambition, Scale, Finance,
Speed
China Bashing
Safety, Corruption, Finance
Bicycle Kingdom of Bicycle Decline of Bicycle
Car
Environment
Car industry;
Policy innovation/
Implementation
Heavy investment, Clean
Energy, Regulation
Congestion; transparency,
affordability, equity,
implementation
Knowledge and Attitude;
Education