The impact of schools on young people's transition to university

Conclusion
<strong>The</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> this study was to determine whether, and to what extent, school characteristics can
<strong>impact</strong> on TER and the probability <strong>of</strong> university enrolment by age 19. <strong>The</strong> analysis highlights the
importance <strong>of</strong> a school’s characteristics. Although individual factors are the main drivers <strong>of</strong> success,
school characteristics are responsible for almost 20% <strong>of</strong> the variation in TER and 9% <strong>of</strong> the variation in
the probability <strong>of</strong> university enrolment, after controlling for TER. However, for TER only around seven
percentage points <strong>of</strong> the variation can be attributed to the school characteristics that can be
explained through the variables included in the analysis. <strong>The</strong> remaining 13 percentage points reflect
features that are peculiar to certain <strong>schools</strong>, with these idiosyncratic (or school ‘ethos’) factors
producing differences between <strong>schools</strong> that can be measured statistically but cannot be explained
using the LSAY data.
<strong>The</strong> most influential factors to emerge from the analysis are the role <strong>of</strong> sector, academic orientation,
differentiation from the norm and resourcing. In relation to sector, high-performing <strong>schools</strong> include
government, Catholic and independent <strong>schools</strong>. However, even after controlling for relevant
characteristics, the low-performing <strong>schools</strong> are almost all government. Academic orientation, as
measured through parental pressure for the school to perform academically is important, as are the
limitations imposed by the timetable <strong>of</strong> work-related programs. Schools that deviate from the norm
(single-sex <strong>schools</strong>, the small number <strong>of</strong> <strong>schools</strong> that do not see themselves as competing with other
<strong>schools</strong>, and the few which either stream all or no subjects) perform better than average, as do those
with high proportions <strong>of</strong> students from language backgrounds other than English. <strong>The</strong> analysis further
shows that resources do have some <strong>impact</strong>. On average, <strong>schools</strong> with lower student—teacher ratios
obtain slightly better TERs, and student fees contribute more to school funds among <strong>schools</strong> in the
high-performing cluster.
Another interesting insight this paper generates is with respect to the role <strong>of</strong> school-SES. Previous
studies (Gonski et al. 2011; NOUS et al. 2011; OECD 2010; Perry & McConney 2010) find school-SES to
affect academic achievement up to age 15. This study finds that a school’s overall socioeconomic
status matters for university enrolment at age 19, but does not influence students’ TER outcomes at
the end <strong>of</strong> senior secondary schooling, conditioning on academic achievement at age 15.
However, school SES does <strong>impact</strong> on the probability <strong>of</strong> going on to university for a given TER. Other
school attributes which influence (positively) this probability are a high proportion <strong>of</strong> non-English
speaking background students, and being Catholic and Independent rather than Government.
Overall, this analysis was about the important, albeit not exclusive, aim <strong>of</strong> schooling to prepare
students for the transition to higher education. Results show that <strong>schools</strong> matter in relation to TER
and the probability <strong>of</strong> going on to university over and above individual student characteristics.
36 <strong>The</strong> <strong>impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>schools</strong> on young people’s transition to university