Total Factor Productivity and Sources of Long-Term Growth in ...

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The estimated parameters from the TFP decomposition equations for
the studied period (1975-96) are presented in table 2. The results indicate that
annual average agricultural wages has a statistically significant, negative impact
on TFP. Meanwhile, the trend variable and dummy variable which represents
the economic reform impact have statistically significant, positive impact on TFP
through the period 1975-96.
Otherwise, The estimated parameters from the TFP decomposition
equations for the pre-reform period (1975-86) are presented in table 3. The
results show that annual average agricultural wages and trend variable have a
statistically significant, negative impact on TFP. While, the number of
agricultural workers, number of tractors in use, number of harvesters and
threshers, and public fixed investment in agriculture and irrigation sectors have
statistically significant, positive impact on TFP through the period 1975-86.
In a different way, The estimated parameters from the TFP
decomposition equations for the economic reform era (1987-96) are presented in
table 4. The results reveal that annual average agricultural wages has a
statistically significant, negative impact on TFP. Otherwise, the number of
tractors in use and number of harvesters and threshers, have statistically
significant, positive impact on TFP through the period 1987-96.
Table (2): Total factor productivity decomposition for the Egyptian agricultural
sector, 1975-1996 estimated parameters.
Variable
Parameter
T-Ratio
Estimates
Intercept 0.6499 ** 22.077
Annual agricultural wages - 0.00015 * 2.372
Trend variable 0.0111 * 2.144
Dummy variable 0.2297 ** 5.387
R 2 = 0.88 R -2 = 0.85 F = 42.257 ** D.W. = 2.147
Note: Asterisks indicate significance levels : **=1% , *= 5%.
Dependent variable is the TFP index.
Estimation method is Ordinary Least Squares Method (OLS).
Source: Estimated from the tables (1&5).
Table (3) Total factor productivity decomposition for the Egyptian agricultural
sector, Before reform (1975-1986), estimated parameters.
Variables
Parameter T-Ratio
Estimates
Intercept -4.616 * -1.946
No. of agricultural workers (Thousands) 0.7715 * 2.091
No. of tractors in use 0.000033 * 2.312
No. of Harvesters in use 0.00079 * 2.116
Trend variable -0.149 ** -2.402
Public fixed investment in agriculture and
0.0006 * 2.143
irrigation sectors
Annual average agricultural wages (LE) -0.0007 -1.448
R 2 =0.65 R 2- = 0.23 F = 1.56 D.W. = 2.67
Note: Asterisks indicate significant levels: ** =1% * = 5%.
Dependent variable is the TFP index.
Estimation method is OLS and Max.Likelihood estimator 19
Source: Estimated from the tables (1&5).