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Practical Considerations in Raking Survey Data

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7. Exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and Diagnos<strong>in</strong>g Slow Convergence<br />

Sometimes the rak<strong>in</strong>g process does not converge <strong>in</strong> a specified number of iterations. As an aid to<br />

diagnos<strong>in</strong>g such situations and tak<strong>in</strong>g appropriate action, the enhanced IHB rak<strong>in</strong>g macro<br />

<strong>in</strong>corporates a module that, <strong>in</strong> case of non-convergence, uses the data to predict the number of<br />

iterations needed for convergence.<br />

The prediction is based on an empirical observation that the logarithm of the magnitude of the<br />

difference between an adjusted weighted total and its control total decl<strong>in</strong>es l<strong>in</strong>early with the<br />

number of iterations. In the authors’ experience, this relation holds reasonably well when a slowly<br />

converg<strong>in</strong>g rak<strong>in</strong>g process approaches the specified number of iterations (50 <strong>in</strong> most applications).<br />

The enhanced macro extrapolates the last iteration slope and estimates the iteration at which the<br />

slowest converg<strong>in</strong>g variable will cross a given tolerance threshold.<br />

One usually considers a rak<strong>in</strong>g process to be “converg<strong>in</strong>g slowly” if either it does not converge <strong>in</strong> a<br />

specified number of iterations or convergence takes substantially more iterations than usual. In the<br />

authors’ work, convergence usually takes place <strong>in</strong> 5 to 20 iterations. However, when the number of<br />

rak<strong>in</strong>g variables is large (say, more than 8) and some of the rak<strong>in</strong>g variables have numerous levels<br />

(the variable State with 51 categories, for <strong>in</strong>stance), the process may take much longer to converge<br />

or may even not converge <strong>in</strong> an <strong>in</strong>itially set number of iterations. The statistician has options to<br />

proceed with rak<strong>in</strong>g. The first one is by us<strong>in</strong>g the predicted number of iterations from the<br />

diagnostics to rerake the sample, try<strong>in</strong>g to achieve complete convergence. This option is illustrated<br />

later. However, the predicted number of iterations may be impractically large. Then, as a second<br />

option, one may attempt to preprocess the sample data.<br />

15

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