Why Canadian crime statistics don't add up - The Globe and Mail

More Questions than Answers:
The report also highlights that:
“Violent crime in Canada is also declining, but to a lesser extent than overall crime. Both
the violent Crime Severity Index and the violent crime rate declined slightly in 2009,
down 1%. The violent CSI dropped for the third consecutive year, and was 6% lower
than a decade earlier, a much smaller decline than for the overall CSI.”
Once again, the incomplete manner in which data are presented in the 2009 report makes it
impossible to verify the claim of a lower violent crime rate. Furthermore, as usual, the rate
of reported violent crime for 2008 in the 2008 report was revised upward in the 2009 report
from 1326 to 1331 per 100,000 population, thus inflating the apparent decline in the rate
reported for 2009. It would take only a small subsequent revision to make the decline into an
increase and, as noted, such revisions are habitual in this sort of data.
Also, the lack of data on rates of violent crime over the decade since 1999 and changing definitions
of what constitutes violent crime make it impossible to verify claims about the extent
to which the rate has fallen over that time. All we are left with is the rate of violent crime as
reported in the 1999 edition of 955 per 100,000 and in 2009 of 1314 per 100,000, which is
not an encouraging decrease but a jump of 33 percent over the decade. It should be stressed
that the unexplained change in the violent crime categorization is likely responsible for this
increase, but leaving it unresolved, and thus unclear, is not acceptable.
Another highlight requires a second look:
The incomplete
manner in which data
are presented in the
2009 report makes it
impossible to verify
the claim of a lower
violent crime rate.
“Most violent crimes declined in 2009, including homicide, serious assaults, sexual assaults
and robbery. However, increases were reported in attempted murder, extortion,
firearms offences and criminal harassment.
Police reported 610 homicides in 2009, 1 less than the previous year. Despite annual
fluctuations, the homicide rate has been relatively stable for the past decade and well
below the peak rate seen in the mid-1970s.”
While it is true that there was one less homicide reported to the police in 2009 than in 2008,
the following other facts are not noted:
àà
In 2008 a new category of “other violations causing death” (presumably infanticide
or criminal negligence causing death) was created, which makes it
unclear whether or not such criminal death cases were reported or included
in “homicide.” In 2009 there was an increase of two such incidents, thus creating
a net overall increase in criminal death causation from 2008.
àà
The number of homicides in 1999 was 538, so there was an approximately
12 percent increase from that year to 2009.
à à Most serious violent crimes (homicide plus attempted murder) increased
from 1225 in 1999 to 1295 in 2004, and to 1416 in 2009 – a decade-long
increase of approximately 15 percent. Continuing improvements in medical
16 February 2011