Module 13 of 15 Probability and Statistics Part 1 of 2 3rd Grade Math

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Module 13 of 15
Probability and Statistics
“more likely than, less likely than, or
equally likely as”
Part 1 of 2
3 rd Grade Math
Students: Please return your completed module to your HIP teacher. Your HIP teacher
will forward your completed module to your science or math teacher to make sure you
receive credit for the work you have completed. Remember, your future is extremely
important to us and we are here to help you! Get your next module and keep going – you
will be SUCCESSFUL!!!

Goal
At the end of this module, you should
be able to use data to describe events
as more likely than, less likely than, or
equally likely as.

What is probability?
Probability
can be defined as
the chance of an
event occurring.
We can use charts
and graphs to better
decide the likelihood
of something
occurring.

Probability scale
Impossible: “not” possible at all.
Unlikely: “not” likely to happen – but there is
a very slight chance it will happen.
Likely: There is a chance of happening.
Certain: Definitely will happen.

Probability of an event occurring
Try to make a prediction if the events listed
are impossible, unlikely, likely, or certain.
Remember, these are your opinions. It will
help if you base your answer on
previous/past events that already occurred.
1. The Spurs will win the NBA Championship game. __________________
2. The next baby born in San Antonio will be a girl. __________________
3. You will watch television sometime today. ________________
4. It will snow in San Antonio during the month of August. _________________
5. You will read at least four books this month. ___________________
6. It will be sunny tomorrow. _____________________

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
Start here:

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
“ANSWER”
This must be the answer since it
has the “least” number of pieces.

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
I love candies – yum!!!
I put them all in one bag so I can take them to
my grandma’s house. On the road, I reached
inside my bag of candies without looking.
Which candy do you think I will most likely
pick? Circle your answer.

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
“answer”
I will probably pick out the candy with the most
amount. Remember, it’s not what you like. It’s
what I will probably get if I reach inside the bag
without looking.

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
You are doing so good
understanding probability.
Now’ let’s try something
different.
Look at the spinner below.
Take careful attention to the
size of each area. Now, try
to answer these questions.
1. Which color will the spinner
most likely land on?
2. Which color will the spinner
least likely land on?

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
“answer”
Since the largest area in the
spinner is Red (half of the
circle), this will be the area
that the needle will most
likely land on.
Since the smallest area in
the spinner is Blue, this will
be the area that the needle
will least likely land on.
1. Which color will the spinner
most likely land on? RED
2. Which color will the spinner
least likely land on? BLUE

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
Let’s change the question. I
will include a tally chart, and
let’s see if you can still give
me the probability based on
my question below.
Which tally chart shows the most likely result of 12 spins?
Chart A
Color
Spins
Chart B
Color
Spins
Chart C
Color
Spins
Chart D
Color
Spins
Red
Red
Red
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Blue
Blue
Blue
Blue

more likely than, less likely than, or equally likely as.
“answer”
Largest area
smallest area
This question is asking us
which chart most likely
results of 12 spins. EASY!
Just look at the smallest and
largest area. Then see which
chart matches that.
Which tally chart shows the most likely result of 12 spins?
Chart A
Color
Spins
Chart B
Color
Spins
Chart C
Color
Spins
Chart D
Color
Spins
Red
Red
Red
Red
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Yellow
Blue
Blue
Blue
Blue
Yellow and blue
should not be equal
Yellow is NOT the
largest
This looks good!
Red is the largest.
Blue is the smallest.
Red and yellow should
not be equal

Your turn

Answer key

Blue
toothpick
has the
most
amount in
the box.

Red should be the
most. Blue should be
the least. There are NO
equals.

Michelle has the
least amount.
Therefore, the
chance that the
ticket will have
Michelle’s name on
it is “least likely”.

• Listen for probability mentioned in weather
forecasts as in probability of precipitation.
• Design a board game in which play is
advanced through the use of number
cubes or a spinner.
• Get a brown bag (lunch sack). Put
different things in it. Guess which item you
will pick out “most likely” and which one
will you pick out “least likely”.

Congratulations!!!
Job Well Done, and we will see you again soon
in
“Dr. Dragonosky’s
Mad math Lab!!”