Economic evaluation of road safety measures - Swov

objectives will rely in part on the level of safety in the starting situation. In
principle, a country with a good level of safety will find it more difficult to
improve than a country that is relatively 'unsafe'. Nevertheless, even among
the ‘safest’ countries, some have set themselves very ambitious targets.
Sweden, for example, has developed a policy that targets on the (very)
long-term goal of zero fatalities (“Vision Zero”).
Country
Target percentage
(number of fatalities)
EU -15% (38,000)
-40% (27,000)
-“1 million euro test”
Annual
percentage *
3.2
3.4
Target year
2000
2010
Base year and
approx. number of
fatalities
Fatalities per billion
vehicle kilometres
(1997) **
1995 (45,000) 13.9
(1996)
Canada “safest in the world” - 2001 - -
Denmark -40 % 4.2 2000 1988 (250) 11.3
Finland -50% (367)
-65% (less than 250)
6.1
6.4
2000
2005
1989 (734) 10.1
France -50% 12.9 2002 1997 (8,000) 16.4
Iceland -20% 5.4 2000 1991-1996 (250) 7.8
Netherlands -25%
-50%
Sweden -25% (max. 400)
-50%
United
Kingdom
-33%
-33% (yet to be
decided upon)
1.9
2.9
6.9
6.1
2.6
3.3
2000
2010
2000
2007
2000
2010
1985 (1,438)
1986 (1,527)
10.2
1996 (537) 8.1
1981-1985 (5,800)
1994-1998
USA -20% 1.8 2008 1996 10.2
*) as percentage of preceding year
**) source: IRTAD (except EU, Denmark and Sweden: estimation by ETSC)
Table 2. Overview of road safety targets for several countries (OECD, 2000).
8.1
Secondly, the efforts to increase road safety involve the systematic and
goal-oriented development of effective packages of measures. The
systematic approach involves such elements as:
- a thorough analysis of the nature, extent and development of the most
significant road safety problems.
- an explanation of such problems, with scientific evidence wherever
possible
- identification of the most promising bases for measures
- the development of a coordinated package of measures, making use of
existing knowledge regarding effective solutions. For new problems and
solutions, with which no relevant experience has yet been gained,
experimental projects are implemented and evaluated.
- the monitoring and evaluation of these measures after implementation,
followed by feedback on the results to make it possible to modify the
policy if necessary.
A third factor is the requirement of efficiency. In some countries, the
usefulness of the measures must be proven by means of a cost-benefit
analysis, or the most cost-effective measures are selected within a predefined
budget. Another example of such decision criteria is the 'one million
8 SWOV Publication D-2000-16E