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Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle Chapter 2 A ...

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Condition (39) points to a key implication of <strong>the</strong> property of non-separability<br />

(! 6= 0): equilibrium output is no longer invariant to monetary policy, at least<br />

to <strong>the</strong> extent that <strong>the</strong> latter implies variations in <strong>the</strong> nominal interest rate.<br />

In o<strong>the</strong>r words, monetary policy is not neutral. As a result, equilibrium condition<br />

(39) does not su¢ ce to determine <strong>the</strong> equilibrium level of output, in<br />

contrast with <strong>the</strong> economy with separable utility analyzed above. In order to<br />

pin down <strong>the</strong> equilibrium path of output <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r endogenous variables we<br />

need to combine (39) with <strong>the</strong> remaining equilibrium conditions, including a<br />

description of monetary policy.<br />

One such additional condition can be obtained by imposing <strong>the</strong> goods<br />

market clearing condition y t = c t on Euler equation (37), which yields an<br />

equation relating <strong>the</strong> nominal interest rate to <strong>the</strong> expected path of output<br />

<strong>and</strong> expected in‡ation:<br />

y t = E t fy t+1 g<br />

1<br />

(i t E t f t+1 g ! E t fi t+1 g ) (40)<br />

Finally, we need an equation which describes how monetary policy is<br />

conducted. For <strong>the</strong> purposes of illustration we assume that <strong>the</strong> central bank<br />

follows <strong>the</strong> simple in‡ation-based interest rate rule<br />

i t = + t + v t (41)<br />

where v t now represents an exogenous policy disturbance, assumed to follow<br />

<strong>the</strong> stationary AR(1) process<br />

v t = v v t<br />

1 + " v t<br />

Similarly, <strong>and</strong> for concreteness, we assume that <strong>the</strong> technology parameter<br />

follows <strong>the</strong> AR(1) process<br />

a t = a a t<br />

1 + " a t<br />

Using (41) to eliminate <strong>the</strong> nominal rate in (39) <strong>and</strong> (40), <strong>and</strong> combining<br />

<strong>the</strong> resulting two equations we can obtain (after some algebraic manipulation)<br />

<strong>the</strong> following closed form expressions for <strong>the</strong> equilibrium level of in‡ation, <strong>the</strong><br />

19

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