Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...
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their potential. At an individual country level, the estimated indicative export potential is given<br />
in the table below (expressed in US$ millions) 1 .<br />
Indicative<br />
<strong>Trade</strong><br />
Potential<br />
Current<br />
Country<br />
exports to<br />
BSEC<br />
Current<br />
Country<br />
exports to<br />
World<br />
Current BSEC<br />
imports from<br />
World<br />
Albania 613 86 662 385,169<br />
Armenia 674 166 937 386,112<br />
Azerbaijan 4,326 1,121 4,347 383,592<br />
Bulgaria 10,733 2,970 11,699 369,675<br />
Georgia 861 499 866 385,312<br />
Greece 14,728 3,362 17,418 332,923<br />
Moldova 1,067 608 1,091 385,510<br />
Romania 23,094 4,418 27,479 348,057<br />
Russia 84,693 25,430 241,244 289,227<br />
Serbia & Montenegro 4,545 1,466 4,703 378,571<br />
Turkey 45,662 8,300 73,028 273,774<br />
Ukraine 27,097 11,952 34,228 351,681<br />
Source: Author’s calculations based on UNSD Comtrade Database, using 2005 data<br />
The products which displayed the highest indicative trade potential are textiles, clothing,<br />
leather, agro-processing, beverages, wood, rubber, paper <strong>and</strong> printer material, agricultural<br />
<strong>and</strong> metal products 2 . Specific products were identified in the study in each of the product<br />
clusters <strong>and</strong> can be found in section II.2. The level of tariffs applied by countries across the<br />
region with the rest of the world are relatively high, so that lower tariffs between members of<br />
BSEC are expected to lead to substantial trade creation amongst member states.<br />
The study also focused on trade in services, which have performed far better for many<br />
member countries than the world trends. Moreover Greece, Turkey <strong>and</strong> Ukraine export more<br />
services than they import. Based on an assessment of the level of competitiveness, the<br />
indicative trade potential <strong>and</strong> the commitments made by BSEC countries in the WTO to<br />
liberalise trade in services, the study proposes a number of service sectors which presents<br />
opportunities for intra-BSEC trade promotion.<br />
1 The value of the indicative trade potential differs between the sum of countries <strong>and</strong> the<br />
region since the regional potential has been calculated using the aggregate figures of all<br />
12 Member States rather than adding the individual potential of each country.<br />
2 Energy products <strong>and</strong> motor vehicles also recorded a high indicative trade potential but<br />
are outside the scope of this study since they refer to larger multinational trade.<br />
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