Tradeflow Study - UNDP Black Sea Trade and Investment Promotion ...

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. II. Trade Potential and Opportunities for Growth II.1. Salient features of intra-BSEC trade in goods A limited number of key sectors account for most of the intra-regional trade flows in the BSEC region. In particular, 15 sectors alone represent respectively 83% and 72% of total intra regional exports and imports. Out of these 15 sectors, 10 are identified as of vital importance in both exports and imports based on the size flows (see table 3). A number of limitations exist with analysing trade data in the region. These primarily concern the misclassification of trade flows, unreported data and informal trade. Box 2 provides a summary of some of the problems encountered in analysing the trade statistics for the region. Table 3. Selection of 10 key sectors for intra-regional trade flows (2005) Rank HS Chapter Description Intra-BSEC Exports (Billion US$) Intra-BSEC Imports (Billion US$ ) 1 27 Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc 37.95 12.07 2 72 Iron and steel 7.3 6.46 3 85 Electrical or electronic machinery and equipment 1.32 1.51 4 87 Vehicles other than Railway, Parts and Accessories 1.91 1.48 5 84 Machinery and Mechanical Appliances, including parts 2.52 2.37 6 44 Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal 1.46 1.04 7 73 Articles of Iron and Steel 1.14 1.64 8 48 Paper & paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board 2.94 1.78 9 39 Plastics and articles thereof 1.66 1.64 10 60 Knitted or crocheted fabric 0.91 0.84 Source: UNSD COMTRADE (2007) In Annex 1, a number of tables display the major exports destination and import origin for each BSEC country and the major exports and imports by product group for each country. Not surprisingly, the Russian Federation is the leading country for most of the sectors, followed by Turkey, Greece and Ukraine. Russia and Turkey are the leading exporters for the top ten sectors. Azerbaijan is a significant exporter for regional fuels, while Serbia and Montenegro is a significant exporter for paper. 20/135
Box 2. Note on the quality of trade data used in this study Trade data in general can never provide a complete and accurate picture of traded values and quantities. This is particularly the case for BSEC where a number of countries do not report data or where data is wrongly reported, omitted or misclassified. Trade statistics can also be affected by informal trade, cross border smuggling, the re-exportation or re-importation of products, etc. However, trade flows and the indicators presented in this chapter provide a useful order of magnitude of actual trade flows and represent a valid point of departure for research. According to quality determinants, one may decide that trade data are reliable or not. While transactions are recorded in both the exporting and the importing country by the customs offices, it is then instructive to analyse the discrepancies between the export statistics of a country and the import statistics of its partners (mirror statistics). A good sign of data reliability is a relative match of these trade and mirror statistics. Imports figures are generally slightly higher than the exports figures, as they include freight and insurance costs. A difference of around 10% is generally observed as the norm. Discrepancy measures are defined as (M-T)/(T+M) where T is reported trade and M is for mirror estimate. These are presented in the tables below. For example, when Georgia reports its imports from BSEC Member States, it systematically over reports except for its trade with Armenia (under reports by 23% on average) and Russia (approximately accurate reporting based on both declarations). Table on Data Discrepancy in imports of BSEC countries REPORTER TOTAL ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MOL ROM RUS TUR ALBANIA 5.2 n.a. n.a. 15.6 n.a. 2.1 n.a. 1.9 18.4 3.4 ARMENIA 13.1 n.a. n.a. 47.5 -19 10.6 1.4 89.5 26.9 100 AZERBAIJAN -7.1 n.a. n.a. -20 -23.7 -20.2 n.a. 3.5 -3.2 -23.3 BULGARIA 3.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -8.8 n.a. -11.2 -7.4 3.6 GEORGIA -13.5 n.a. 23.2 -8.7 -40.1 -13.9 n.a. -70.8 0.8 -15.6 GREECE 6.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. -27.3 91.3 n.a. 1.8 61.6 -2.1 MOLDOVA -3.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 18.4 n.a. 7.6 -17 1.2 1.3 RUSSIA -19.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.6 n.a. -19.1 TURKEY 7.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 n.a. -10.9 n.a. 0.6 7.9 Note: Bilateral discrepancy defined as 100*(T-M)/(T+M), T reported trade, M mirror estimate for 2003. Varies between -100% and +100%; n.a. refers to data not available; no data reported for Romania, Serbia and Montenegro and Ukraine Source : International Trade Center, based on COMTRADE Data of the UNSD Table on Data Discrepancy for exports of BSEC countries REPORTER TOTAL ALB ARM AZE BGR GEO GRC MOL ROM RUS TUR ALBANIA 3.2 n.a. n.a. 17.7 n.a. -49.9 n.a. -100 46.4 10.5 ARMENIA 5.7 n.a. n.a. 80.5 23.2 -63.7 -2.6 n.a. -6.2 n.a. AZERBAIJAN -13.5 n.a. n.a. -99.7 -8.7 -29.6 n.a. -7.2 -23.3 6.8 BULGARIA 3.7 15.6 n.a. n.a. -40.1 -27.3 18.4 0.8 21.4 5.1 GEORGIA 40.2 n.a. -19 -23.7 n.a. 91.3 -9.4 37.9 - 53.8 GREECE -3 2.1 n.a. n.a. -8.8 n.a. n.a. -3.8 -41.5 -10.9 MOLDOVA 15.9 n.a. 1.4 6.4 8.1 -3.9 62.4 -2.2 13.6 19.7 RUSSIA 16.1 n.a. n.a. -3.2 -7.4 n.a. 61.6 n.a. 50.3 7.9 TURKEY 4.5 n.a. n.a. -23.3 3.6 -15.6 -2.1 n.a. 3.3 -19.1 Note: Bilateral discrepancy defined as 100*(T-M)/(T+M), T reported trade, M mirror estimate for 2003. Varies between -100% and +100%; n.a. refers to data not available; no data reported for Romania, Serbia and Montenegro and Ukraine Source : International Trade Center, based on COMTRADE Data of the UNSD 21/135
Page 1: Black Sea Economic Cooperation: Stu
Page 4 and 5: . Table of Contents Abbreviations .
Page 6 and 7: . Table 15d. Greece’s Commitments
Page 8 and 9: . Abbreviations BSEC EBRD EU EUROST
Page 10 and 11: . econometric model, referred to as
Page 12 and 13: . In this regard, travel services h
Page 14 and 15: . stock and foreign affiliates acti
Page 16 and 17: Current account balance (% of GDP)
Page 18 and 19: % of GDP . The dynamism of the priv
Page 20 and 21: . I.2. Background to Trade and Inve
Page 24 and 25: . As mentioned earlier, the major e
Page 26 and 27: Imports Perspective . There are cer
Page 28 and 29: . II.1.3 Intra-industry trade betwe
Page 30 and 31: j j . x is the value of total expo
Page 32 and 33: . Table 10 provides a summary of th
Page 34 and 35: . Table 11. Twenty five products wi
Page 36 and 37: . Wood and wood products, in parti
Page 38 and 39: . Metal products, in particular HS
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Page 42 and 43: . II.4. Services With the exception
Page 44 and 45: . Table 13. Performance of trade in
Page 46 and 47: . Table 14a. Indicative Service Exp
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. Table 23d. FDI in Romania (2005)
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. Table 23f. FDI in Turkey (2005) I
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. of trade in services performance,
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. Egger, P. (2002), An Econometric
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. World Bank (2005), Trade, Transp
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. Annex 1. Trade Indicators 82/135
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. Table A2. Major Import Partners f
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. Table A4. Major Import by Product
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Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. Table A7 Trade intensity in BSEC
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. HS Description ALB ARM AZE BGR GE
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. country I and country j’s capit
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. Annex 2.3. Results of Gravity Equ
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. Georgia Sector / Exports to ALB A
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. Russia Sector / Exports to ALB AR
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. Annex 2.4. Results of Trade Flow
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Annex 2.5. Results of Trade Flow An
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. Note: Excludes energy and tobacco
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