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AT M O S P H E R I C T R A N S P O R T M O D E L L I N G capabilities, case studies on CTBT-related events, improved understanding of noble gas background levels, and scientific improvements related to ATM. The implementation of operational capabilities at the CTBTO including the close cooperation with the WMO, was well covered by several posters (Becker et al., ATM-03/E; Skomorowski and Pechinger, ATM-07/E; Wotawa and Becker, ATM-09/E). The CTBTO’s ATM system is now fully functional and provides real-time reliable guidance and products to support the verification technologies. These products contain all relevant information to enable the IMS radionuclide measurements to be traced back to their source as well as information that helps determine the radionuclide network‘s capability in terms of network coverage and threshold monitoring. The ATM system is based on a scientifically sound and proven technology that uses the world’s best atmospheric analyses available from the ECMWF. Furthermore, the CTBTO is able to access support from the WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres on a 24-hour basis. This has helped increase confidence in the CTBTO’s assessments by comparing backtracking modelling with WMO results. In-depth case studies on CTBT-related events were presented by some of the ISS posters. These included the assessment of the DPRK 2006 event (Becker et al., ATM-10/E; Stocki et al., ATM-14/E) and the study of the 2008 shutdowns of some of the major medical isotope emitters (Chalk River, Canada, and Fleurus, Belgium). These temporary shutdowns offered a unique opportunity to assess the relative impact of these production facilities on the monitoring system (Ungar et al., ATM-15/E; Wotawa et al., ATM-16/E). ATM technology is increasingly used to further explore and understand the noble gas measurements at the IMS stations. In that regard, a few posters presented studies to enhance understanding of the background level of global noble gas measurements at the IMS stations. In particular, one study presented updated results of the global detection capabilities of the radionuclide stations to detect the various xenon isotopes by using many years of xenon measurements at the stations (Ungar et al., ATM-12/E). There have been significant contributions over the last six months alone that have helped improve the understanding of global noble gas background levels. This was one of the areas of work which was identified as needing improvement during the briefing session on the ISS project organized last December 2008 in Washington by the Center for Strategic & International Studies. The posters at ISS09 clearly demonstrated that substantial progress has been made in that field. Finally, many of the posters covered scientific improvements to the science of ATM. Two posters specifically addressed the area of ensemble modelling methods, which aim to reduce the uncertainties in the ATM assessments. One poster (Galmarini et al., ATM-05/E) compared the performance of two approaches to generating the ensemble members (multi-model ensemble and ensemble prediction system based ensemble), while the other (Galmarini and Potempski, ATM-04/E) examined new approaches to evaluate multi-model ensemble systems. Other posters explored opportunities for improvement (Arnold et al., ATM-02/E; Panday, ATM-06/E; Seibert, ATM-08/E). These included the use of more sophisticated source terms for the emissions scenarios such as time-dependent emission profiles, the need to examine the issues related to the resolution and quality of the meteorological data input to the ATM system, and the potential application of ATM to on-site inspection (OSI) related issues. In that regard, the importance of considering the complex terrain topographies and the weather phenomena in detail at the smaller scales was well highlighted. Posters also included ongoing work to assess the added value of running higher resolution ATM systems so as to better capture the various smaller scale phenomena, in particular for the monitoring stations located near complex terrain which affect the atmospheric flows. ATM AND OTHER CIVIL AND SCIENTIFIC APPLICATIONS The benefits of CTBT verification technologies for civil and scientific applications were strongly expressed at ISS09. The ATM scientific area profits from the availability 32 SCIENCE FOR SECURITY
of radionuclide datasets in order to verify and validate the atmospheric models, which is an essential part of the ATM science. Furthermore, WMO receives the weather observations from IMS stations. These observations may be used in the global data assimilation systems, which, in turn, help to improve the assessment of the atmospheric flows around the globe and improve the weather forecasts. A well recognized civil application takes advantage of the capability to detect volcanic eruptions worldwide using infrasound monitoring. The time and intensity of the volcanic ash eruptions are important inputs to the tracking and forecasting of ash clouds in the atmosphere using ATM methods. The International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC) provide timely guidance to the aviation industry concerning ash clouds. They would benefit from improved time and intensity information about the release of ash plumes to better track and forecast these plumes using ATM. Here again; this detailed information can be used to validate ATM systems more accurately (Fee et al., INFRA-28/G). ATM: A CORNERSTONE TO THE CTBT VERIFICATION TECHNOLOGY The presentations and discussions at ISS09 clearly demonstrated the positive contributions of ATM to the CTBT verification regime as well as the unique collaboration with the WMO. The impressive turnout of posters presented at ISS09 indicates that interest from the scientific community will continue to grow. This is also related to the fact that ATM technology provides the link that associates radionuclide events with seismic events and improves the reliability and accuracy of infrasound event backtracking. Many international ATM experts have expressed an interest in participating in ISS follow-up activities. Until then, the special session dedicated to ‘Research and Development in <strong>Nuclear</strong> Explosion Monitoring’, AT M O S P H E R I C T R A N S P O R T M O D E L L I N G Figure 2 Section snapshot of the poster by Seibert (ATM-08/E) discussing the CTBT relevant benefits of running ATM systems with higher resolved input meteorological fields. SCIENCE FOR SECURITY 33
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