Pakistan satellite crop monitoring bulletin - Agricultural Market ...

Government of Pakistan
Prelude:
SUPARCO, the National Space
Agency, is inter-alia involved in
monitoring of crops through use of
satellite remote sensing and GIS
technologies. This work is being
carried out in collaboration with
Pakistan Meteorological Department,
Provincial Crop Reporting Services,
National Fertilizer Development
Center (NFDC) and Indus River
System Authority (IRSA).
SUPARCO has developed techniques
and procedures for fast track delivery
of reliable and reproducible
information.
Inside this issue:
Crop Situation December
2011
Recession of rainwater
in Sindh
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index
(NDVI): Growth Profile
at Divisional level
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index
(NDVI): Growth Profile
at Provincial level
Kharif Crop Seasonal
Growth Profile 2011-12
Vegetation Difference,
31 st December, 2011
Temporal Vegetation
changes
1-4
5
6-7
8
9-11
12
Agro-met Conditions 16
13-15
Maximum Temperature:
December, 2011
17
Irrigation Water Supply
Situation
Daily Hydrological
Status at Indus Basin:
December, 2011
18
19
Fertilizer Situation 20
Field view of crops:
December, 2011
21-22
Crop Statistics: 2011-12 23
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
PAKISTAN SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM
Volume II, Issue 1
Crop Situation : December, 2011
Summary
The sowing of Rabi crops in Pakistan
stretches from mid September to end
December. During the Rabi season
2011-12, large areas were sown under
rapeseed, vegetables chickpeas,
fodders, wheat and other crops.
In barani areas (rainfed) the sowing of
Rabi crops was affected due to long
dry spell. The crops in these areas
have been under moisture stress and
there is a dire need of rainfall in
barani areas (rainfed) during early
part of January.
In irrigated areas, the major activity
during December was mainly focused
on sowing of wheat crop after harvest
of cotton, rice and after sugarcane
crops to some extent.
Government of Pakistan took two
fold policy decision to increase productivity
of wheat crop. These include
(a) Reduction in the price of
urea by about Rs. 200 per bag to Rs.
1600-1700 through a farm support
policy (b) Increase in the support
price of wheat to Rs. 1050 from Rs.
950 per 40 kg. The reduction in price
of fertilizer proved short-lived as the
urea prices reverted back to the level
of Rs. 1900 per bag at the end of
December 2011 against Rs. 853 per
bag during October 2010. The DAP
prices were around Rs. 4200-4400
per bag.
The cotton prices remained dull at
international and national levels. The
Liverpool Cot Look A index price of
cotton on 23 rd Dec, 2011 was 92.9
cents per lb compared to 181.25
cents per lb on the same date last
year. The New York cotton future
contract price for March 2012 on this
day was 87.24 cents per lb, compared
to 148.12 cents per lb on the same
date last year. The lackluster in trade
activity at Christmas almost around
1-Jan-2012
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31 st December, 2011
the globe, further depressed the cotton and other commodity prices.
The domestic prices of phutti (seed cotton) on 23 rd Dec, 2011 for 40 kg
were Rs. 1650-2300 in Sindh and Rs. 2000-2500 in Punjab. These prices
were around Rs. 4000-5000 per 40 kg last year. The fact is that over last
one year, the urea prices have doubled and the phutti prices have almost
halved.
Given a bumper crop of sugarcane this year, the market situation is bearish.
Punjab Government has fixed support price of sugarcane at Rs. 150
per 40 kg. The farmers are generally receiving about Rs. 125 per 40 kg.
The sugarcane marketing situation in Sindh and KP is comparatively better.
The farmers in Sindh are selling their cane directly to sugar mills at
Rs. 150 per 40 kg. In KP there is a large informal private sector outside
the sugar Industry, manufacturing gur 1 .
The sugar production is likely to touch a level of 5 million tons provided
all the available cane is crushed. The domestic requirement at an annual
consumption rate of 26 kg per capital works at 4.7 million tons for a
population of 180 million. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan, on the
advice of Executive Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) of the Cabinet has
contracted to procure 0.2 million tons of sugar from the sugar mills at a
rate of Rs. 46,250 per ton to revamp the market mechanism and facilitate
the mills to expand the fiscal and storage space.
The paddy rice prices are comparatively better this year viz. Basmati at
Rs. 1600-1700 per 40 Kg and coarse rice at around Rs. 800 per 40 kg.
1
Gur is an unrefined product prepared at the farm by boiling of sugarcane juice to a semi solid condition,
apportioning it into small cakes that solidify on cooling at ambient temperature.
Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a monthly publication of SUPARCO.

Page 2
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
During Rabi, the water supply situation generally remained lower than last year in Punjab (-7.5 %) and Sindh (-38.7 %). The deficit was more
pronounced during. October–November and the situation improved a bit in December. The situation in KP and Balochistan improved this year
as water supply channels in these provinces were repaired in the aftermath of last year’s floods. The water level in reservoirs on 30 th December,
2011 was slightly higher this year than last year. Tarbella was at 1472.5 ft amsl higher by 1 ft than last year and Mangla was at 1147.3 ft
amsl, higher by 15.8 ft than last year. The size of area still inundated in Sindh by floods at the end of December was about 200 thousand ha.
This included an agricultural area of about 90 thousand ha.
Crops Situation
Kharif Crops
The perspective of major Kharif crops already harvested / being harvested is as follows:
Cotton Crop
The size of cotton crop was assessed by SUPARCO at 12.23 million bales 2 on 7 th October, 2011. The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee
(CCAC) of the Ministry of Textile on 21 st December, 2011 has come up with a size of crop at 12.598 million bales. The arrivals of cotton reported
by Pakistan Cotton Ginning Association on 1 st January, 2012 are 12.032 million bales, up by 1.792 million bales over the corresponding
period of last year. In Punjab, the arrivals were higher by 42.6 % and in Sindh were lower by 31.1 % mainly because of rain related damages.
The statistics of cotton arrivals are as follows.
The cotton prices remained low at international and national levels. The Liverpool Cot Look A index price of cotton on 23-Dec-2011 was 92.9
cents per lb compared to 181.25 cents per lb on the same date last year. The New York cotton future contract price for March 2012 on this
day was 87.24 cents per lb, compared to 148.12 cents per lb on the same date, last year. The future contracts on 23-Dec-2011 for May 2012
delivery were at 86.99 cents per lb against 134.67 cents per lb on this date lin the preceding year.
The domestic prices of cotton on 23 rd December, 2011 for 40 kg were Mirpur Khas Rs. 1650, Hyderabad Rs. 2000, Khairpur Rs. 1750 and
Sukkur Rs. 2300. In rain affected areas of Sindh where cotton crop was damaged, the desperate farmers resorted to sell their commodity at
one half to one third of the market price. The prices in Punjab were generally better than Sindh. The prices were Rs. 2500 in Rahim Yar Khan,
Rs. 2350 in Multan, Rs. 2200 in Sahiwal and Rs. 2500 in Burewala. In overall, the cotton prices were Rs. 1650-2300 in Sindh and Rs.2000-2500
in Punjab.
The current trading activity in the cotton market is murky. After a stand off with spinners, Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association is trying to
persuade the Government to direct the Trading Corporation of Pakistan as a second buyer for the procurement of 1 million bales of cotton. If
this endeavor materializes, it will bring a bullish sentiment to the market.
Rice Crop
The harvesting of rice both coarse and basmati was completed in November 2011. Most of the commodity has been procured by the traders/
industry for processing and export. The market prices are slightly better than last year.
Sugarcane Crop
1 st January Punjab Sindh Total
2012 9.627 2.405 12.032
2011 6.751 3.489 10.240
% Change 42.6 -31.1 17.5
The sugarcane production during 2011-12 has been estimated at 69.9 million 3 tons by SUPARCO. The cane has multiple uses as (i) crushing by
sugar mills (ii) gur making widely prevalent in Punjab and more so in KP (iii) fodder under emergent situations, generally when formal fodder
sources fail (iv) seed/wastage. There are reservations on the gur statistics as these data are not formally collected. The sugar production this
year may be around 5 million tons depending upon the extent, the cane is diverted for crushing or gur making. The statistics on farm and industrial
aspects of the crop are as overleaf.
2
SUPRACO based its estimates on standard weight of 170 kg a bale. The bank loans are linked to number of bales and not to the weight of
cotton ginned. Therefore these bales are generally undersized. The crop production estimate reported by SUPARCO would equal to 13 million
bales assuming a bale weight of 160 kg.
3
The sugarcane estimate and sugar forecast have been revised.
Cotton Arrivals (million bales)-Source: PCGA

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 3
Sugarcane Crop Estimate and Sugar Forecast 2011-12—SUPARCO
Province Area ( 000 ha ) Yield (tons per ha) Production
( million tons)
Percent Crushing
Crushing
(million tons)
% Recovery Sugar production
(million tons)
Punjab 873.4 55.4 48.4 74.0 35.8 9.24 3.3
Sindh 294.2 56.0 16.5 85.0 14.0 9.42 1.3
KP 111.1 45.0 5.0 75.0 3.8 8.64 0.3
Pakistan 1278.7 54.6 69.9 76.7 53.6 9.25 5.0
Source: Crop Statistics by SUPARCO and the information on industrial aspects is from Pakistan Sugar Mills Association-PSMA
Given a bumper crop of about 70 million tons, the market situation is generally bearish for the cane. Punjab Government has fixed support of
sugarcane at Rs. 150 per 40 kg. This sector is mainly beleaguered by unscrupulous middlemen in Punjab who siphon off large profits by purchasing
cane from farmers at a rate of Rs. 125 per 40 kg. In addition, discounted payments are being made to farmers, growing high weight,
low sugar recovery, banned varieties. The sugarcane marketing situation in Sindh is moderately better as the province is generally free from
middlemen and the farmers are selling their cane direct to sugar mills at Rs. 150 per 40 kg. Farmers generally incur a cost of Rs. 25 per 40 kg
on an average, for harvesting and delivery at weigh stations. The effective procurement price is therefore lesser by the same amount and this
expenditure is almost similar in all provinces. There is a large trend in KP to divert cane for gur making. The farmers are generally better off in
this province to sell their commodity.
Given the crushing and recovery levels of last year, the sugar production is forecast at 5 million tons. The per capita consumption of sugar is
26 kg per head per year. At this rate, the consumption requirements of sugar would be 4.7 million tons. The Trading Corporation of Pakistan,
on the advice of Executive Committee of the Cabinet (ECC), has contracted to procure a quantity of 0.2 million tons of sugar from the sugar
mills at a rate of Rs. 46250 per ton to gear up market mechanism and to enable the mills to expand the fiscal and storage capacity. The prices
of sugar have fallen down from Rs. 70-75 during October to Rs. 50 per kg in December 2011.
Rabi Crops
The sowing situation of Rabi crops is as follows:
Wheat Crop
The sowing of rabi crops has been completed. During the month of December, the sowing of wheat crop continued in the aftermath of harvests
of cotton, rice and sugarcane crops. There have been very scanty rains in barani areas. The situation of urea supply up to end November
was not very satisfying. The urea off take was 973.2 thousand tons during October-November compared to 1306.7 thousand tons for these
months during 2010. The irrigation water supply is also lower than last year, especially in Sindh to a large extent (-38.7 %) and in Punjab, at
small level (-7.5%). The loss in wheat production from the inundated areas of Sindh, on account of flooding during summer, is estimated at 0.2
million tons.
Potato Crop
Three crops of potato are sown in Pakistan viz. autumn (80%) spring (12%) and hill crop (8%). Autumn crop is grown mainly in Punjab and to
some extent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Punjab, the crop is mainly sown in Okara, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Kasur, Chiniot, Jhelum, Lahore and
Sialkot districts. The cropping patterns of potato usually involve maize-maize-potato or rice-potato-maize rotation. The high temperature at
sowing are damaging for seed tubers. The potatoes are therefore sown when soil temperatures cool down in late October. The harvesting of
the crop starts in late December. At this stage of crop growth, the tuber size is by and large small and the yields are around 15- 20 tons per
ha. The farmers compromise on low yield in December as commodity prices are usually high at this juncture of time. The driving forces for
this rise in price are (a) low supplies of potatoes in the market as availability from cold storages normally trims off and (b) the demand for
stored /sweetened potatoes shrinks as consumers prefer to buy vitamin-rich fresh produce. The harvest continues up to end February or
slightly beyond depending upon ambient temperatures. This increase in crop growth period results in an increase in crop yield to around 25-
30 tons per ha.
SUPARCO started monitoring potato crop from the current autumn season. Multi spectral satellite imagery of medium and high resolutions
from SPOT VGT, MODIS sensors on Terra, Aqua and SPOT 5 satellites were used in this investigation. These data were used to study the
phenological behavior of potato crop at various stages of growth viz. sowing, peak photosynthetic activity and at maturity. A stratified system
was designed to draw random samples in the main growing districts. These sampled sites were used to collect spectral signatures during
ground truthing by a team of experts in late December 2011. Vegetation analyses were carried out for vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area
index and other parameters. The digital image processing and classification was carried out to estimate area sown under potato crop. The
district wise statistics of potato districts visited by SUPARCO team is as overleaf.

Page 4
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
The production of autumn potato crop 2011-12 is forecast at about 6 million tons.
Autumn Potato Crop: 2011-12
District
Area
(estimate)
000 ha
Yield
(forecast )
tons/ha
Production
(forecast )
million tons
Jhelum 4.46 19.3 0.086
Chiniot 30.95 22.3 0.690
Kasur 37.24 22.4 0.834
Okara 64.57 26.8 1.730
Sahiwal 32.90 22.7 0.747
Pakpattan 42.97 25.8 1.109
Others 31.39 24.5 0.769
Punjab 244.48 24.4 5.965

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 5
Recession of rainwater in Sindh, December 2011
The peak inundation of geographic area during the season was about 1.3 million ha. Most of inundated area receded at the end of December.
On 31 st December, 2011 about 0.2 million ha area was still submerged. The production loss to wheat from the submerged area is forecast at
0.15 million tons. The statistics are as follows.
Inundation of Geographic Area (000ha)
Districts 22 Sept 1 Oct 18 Oct 30 Oct 15 Nov 30 Nov 31 Dec
Badin 358.1 347.8 193.1 159.2 121.3 97.2 48.5
Dadu 78.3 62.9 22.1 16.7 12.8 11.0 3.6
Hyderabad 3.9 3.6 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 0.8
Jacobabad 72.4 68.9 11.4 9.5 7.4 6.8 2.8
Jamshoro 43.4 31.1 11.6 10.0 8.5 6.9 4.6
Khairpur 3.2 3.1 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.6
Matiari 17.5 17.0 7.5 5.7 4.1 3.6 2.1
Mirpurkhas 179.6 177.5 86.7 67.0 52.6 40.0 18.9
Nausheroferoz 15.1 14.7 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.0
Sanghar 247.0 236.9 154.3 125.4 109.0 93.9 61.2
Shaheed
Benazirabad
63.6 60.3 25.6 16.3 13.1 11.9 8.2
Tando Allahyar 32.3 31.3 22.3 20.1 18.9 18.1 11.4
Tando Muhammad
Khan
29.4 28.6 9.6 8.1 6.5 6.0 2.5
Tharparkar 20.7 21.2 15.7 12.0 10.2 8.1 1.9
Thatta 64.5 63.0 21.4 13.6 9.9 8.6 5.0
Umerkot 75.9 78.9 56.6 49.1 46.1 42.0 29.2
Total 1304.9 1246.9 646.8 520.1 426.6 360.1 203.4

Page 6
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level
SUPARCO is continuously acquiring MODIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPOT VGT data on 10 daily basis to assess crop
growth. SPOT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes in image classification.
The graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows:

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 7
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level

Page 8
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial level

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 9
Kharif Crop Seasonal Growth Profile 2011-12 at Divisional Level

Page 10
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Kharif Crop Seasonal Growth Profile 2011-12 at Divisional Level

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 11
Kharif Crop Seasonal Growth Profile 2011-12 at Provincial level

Page 12
Vegetation Indices Changes in December, 2011.
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Vegetation Indices Changes in 2011 vs. 2010 during December.
Satellite Imagery: SPOT VGT 1000m

Volume II, Issue 1
Temporal change: Rice in Kallar Tract, Punjab
Page 13
Potato
Potato
Temporal change: Potato in Sahiwal Division, Punjab
Potato
Potato
Potato
Potato
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Page 14
Temporal change: Rice 2010 and 2011 in Larkana Division, Sindh
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Temporal change: Rice in the Indus delta, Sindh
Inundation
Inundation
Temporal change: Cotton in Punjab
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Volume II, Issue 1
Temporal change: Cotton in Sindh
Page 15
Wheat
Rain water
recession
Rain water
recession
Temporal Change: Sugarcane in Peshawar Valley, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Temporal change: Rice in Pat Feeder Area of Balochistan
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m

Page 16 Page 16
Agro-Met Conditions:
The agro met conditions which prevailed during the month of November are as under:
a) Rainfall
There was very scanty rainfall till Dec 31,2011. Minor rainfall took place in November. The rainfall statics are as follows:
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Date
Rainfall
06-07 Oct
Islamabad 23 mm, D G Khan 17 mm, Kamra 13 mm, Muzafarabad 25 mm, Hunza 16 mm, Bannu 29 mm, Kohat 46
mm, Malam Jaba 23 mm, Parachinar 61mm
Bhakkar 23 mm, Chakwal 11 mm, Jhelum 11.7 mm, Mianwali 40 mm, Kamra 28 mm, Murree 40 mm, Gar Dopata 79
23-24 Oct mm, Pattan 45 mm, Muzafarabad 27 mm, Bannu 10 mm, Kohat 24 mm, Malam Jaba 52 mm, DIR 76 mm, Parachinar
72 mm
01-05 Nov
Chakwal 3.4 mm, Kamra 5 mm, Murree 12 mm, Muzafar abad 28 mm, Pattan 68 mm, Dir 51 mm, Kalam 48 mm,
Parachinar 78 mm, Peshawar 13 mm, Gawadar 25 mm, Jawani 36 mm, Pasni 16 mm, Ormara 9 mm,
Bhakkar 5 mm, Chakwal 2 mm, Islamabad 8 mm, Mianwali 10 mm, Murree 9 mm, Muzafar abad 11 mm, Pattan 10
08-11 Nov mm, Sakardu 11 mm, Dir 11 mm, Kalam 15 mm, Malam Jaba 22 mm, Parachinar 49 mm, Peshawar 14 mm, Kalat 10
mm, Ormara 8 mm, Smungli 18 mm, Quetta 21 mm
09- Dec Rawalkot 10 mm, Chilas 6 mm, Gari Dopatta 6 mm
21- Dec Pattan 19 mm, Malam Jabba 12 mm, Balakot 13 mm
b) Temperature
The average maximum temperatures during December 2011 were higher by 1-2 degree centigrade than December 2010.
Monthly Cumulative Precipitation:
December 2011
December 2010
Monthly Temperature: December, 2011
Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 17
Maximum Temperature: December, 2011
The ranges of maximum temperatures during December 2011 were as follows:

Page 18 Volume II, Issue 1
Irrigation Water Supply Situation :
In Rabi season, the sowing of crops is mainly carried out during October-Dec period. The water supplies in Punjab and Sindh were generally
lower than last year. IRSA has explained that low supplies are based on the indents given by the provinces. It appears that these plans are to
conserve water for the stressful period of Rabi crop viz. of Jan-Feb in Sindh and Feb-Mar in Punjab.
Rabi 2011-12
Month
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Year
Jhelum-
Chenab
Punjab
Indus
Total
Sindh KP Balochistan Total
Million Acre Feet
2011 2.476 2.135 4.612 1.916 0.150 0.164 6.842
2010 2.624 2.430 5.054 3.833 0.021 0.094 9.001
% change -5.62 -12.12 -8.75 -50.01 618.10 74.89 -23.99
2011 2.035 1.549 3.584 1.636 0.097 0.208 5.526
2010 2.049 1.732 3.781 2.803 0.123 0.149 6.855
% change -0.68 -10.54 -5.19 -41.61 -20.97 40.00 -19.39
2011 1.802 1.370 3.171 2.128 0.105 0.224 5.629
2010 1.742 1.300 3.043 2.628 0.129 0.183 5.983
% change 3.40 5.34 4.23 -19.02 -18.18 22.40 -5.91
2011 6.313 5.054 11.367 5.681 0.352 0.597 17.997
2010 6.415 5.462 11.877 9.263 0.273 0.426 21.839
% change -1.59 -7.46 -4.29 -38.68 29.18 40.13 -17.59

Volume II, Issue 1
Daily Hydrological Status at Indus Basin: December, 2011
The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows:
DECEMBER 2011: Daily River Water Inflow (000 cusecs)
Indus at Indus at Indus at Jhelum at Chenab at
Day Tarbela Chashma Taunsa Mangla Marala
Kabul at
Nowshera
1 25.9 65.2 62.4 10.2 5.9 7.3
2 25.3 60.2 61.3 7.8 5.9 7.4
3 24.2 57.1 61.3 7.8 5.9 7.6
7 24.2 54.3 53.4 9.9 5.9 6.7
8 19.0 52.3 53.4 5.9 6.4 6.7
9 23.2 65.5 50.8 8.1 6.4 7.0
10 22.7 45.5 50.5 8.1 7.4 7.0
12 23.0 50.6 48.0 10.3 6.6 7.3
13 20.9 53.2 48.0 7.0 6.1 6.5
14 19.5 48.6 47.7 8.2 5.9 6.1
15 20.4 45.8 47.2 9.0 6.6 5.7
16 19.6 44.3 47.0 9.0 5.9 5.5
17 20.9 49.5 45.4 9.0 5.9 6.5
19 20.0 42.9 40.1 7.0 6.2 5.7
20 18.9 33.8 40.1 7.0 6.2 5.4
21 19.6 33.4 39.9 7.0 5.9 6.2
22 19.6 34.8 38.9 7.0 5.9 6.6
23 19.7 35.6 37.4 10.0 5.9 6.0
24 20.0 34.4 36.9 9.6 5.9 5.6
26 18.7 33.6 34.0 9.4 6.1 6.4
27 17.2 21.0 31.6 6.5 6.7 5.6
28 17.6 22.5 29.7 6.5 5.7 27.4
29 17.8 22.8 27.1 7.3 5.7 23.7
30 18.3 21.3 23.9 6.4 5.7 21.8
31 18.6 21.3 35.2 6.45 5.4 5.2
Condition No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood
Page 19
The water level in Tarbela at the end of December was 1472.5 feet above mean sea level (amsl) and Mangla was at 1147.3 feet (amsl).
Reservoir
Reservoir Level (feet) above mean sea Level on the date of
Full Reservoir
1-Dec 13-Dec 21-Dec 30-Dec
Level
2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010
Tarbela 1502.8 1499.1 1483.6 1288.2 1475.3 1477.0 1472.5 1471.5 1550.0
Mangla 1173.0 1159.3 1160.5 1149.6 1151.8 1137.8 1147.3 1131.5 1210.0
Source: Punjab Irrigation Department, Lahore

Page 20
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Fertilizer Situation:
The statistics released by National fertilizer Development Center of Planning Commission indicate an opening inventory of urea for Rabi at 163
thousand tons. The imports are estimated at 823 thousand tons. The domestic production is 2316 thousand tons. The total availability of urea
during Rabi 2011-12 is likely to be 3302 thousand tons. There is a high probability of additional imports of 200 thousand tons of urea under
SABIC (Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corporation ) funding mechanism. The prices of urea eased somewhat to Rs. 1600 per bag during early
December due to Government’s farm support policy. However the effort to bring a resilience to urea prices did not work well and the commodity
prices increased to Rs. 1900 per bag towards the end of December 2011. The urea prices were Rs. 853 per bag in October 2010.
The Opening inventory of DAP for Rabi 2011-12 was 224 thousand tons. The total availability of DAP would be 829 thousand tons, which interalia
comprises 296 thousand tons of imports and 309 thousand tons of domestic production. The demand of DAP for Rabi season 2011-12
is 723 thousand tons. The price of DAP were at Rs. 4200 to 4400 per bag during December 2011.
The fertilizer off take during rabi 2011-12 showed a dismal look. The fertilizer situation off take during initial months of rabi season viz. October
and November 2011 was 742 .0 thousand tons compared to 1066.3 thousand tons last year, a decrease of 30.4 %. The decrease in off take
of nitrogen (N) was 27.3 %, phosphate 37.6 % and potash 48.8 %. The reasons for these short falls include (a) a quantum jump in price of urea
(b) levying of GST on fertilize (c ) Lower domestic production during owing to gas load shedding to fertilizer manufacturing plants (d) Low
farm liquidity owing to depressed phutti prices and problem in payments of cane dues by sugar mills.
Month
Source: National Fertilizer Development Center
*P= Provisional assumed at the level of last year
2011-12 2010-11 % Change
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Total Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Total
(000 tons)
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Total
October 287.3 106.7 2.8 396.8 286.5 205 5.6 497.1 0.3 -48.0 -50.0 -20.2
November 258.9 84.7 1.5 345.1 464.7 101.6 2.9 569.2 -44.3 -16.6 -48.3 -39.4
December(P) 364 65.3 1.2 430.5 333.5 58.4 3.3 395.2 9.1 11.8 -63.6 8.9
Total 910.2 256.7 5.5 1172.4 1084.7 365 11.8 1461.5 -16.1 -29.7 -53.4 -19.8

Volume II, Issue 1
Page 21
Field view of crops: December, 2011
Sugarcane crop standing at Chiniot
Wheat at Chiniot
Potato field at Chiniot
Barseem growing as fodder crop
Wilting Potato field at Chiniot
Wilting in Potato plant
Potato harvesting at Chiniot
Potato harvesting at Chiniot
Guava field at Chiniot
Guava Packing and Marketing
Sweet peas at Chiniot
Sweet peas at fruiting

Page 22
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Field view of crops: December, 2011
Newly Emerging Potato crop at Sahiwal
Healthy Potato field at Sahiwal
Harvested Sugarcane waiting for crushing at
ITFAQ Sugar mill at Sahiwal
Off season cultivation of Cucurbits
Standing Cotton crop at Sahiwal
Sugarcane harvesting at Pakpattan
Hybrid of Apple Gourd at Pakpattan
Hybrid of Apple Gourd at Pakpattan
Wheat emergence at Pind Dadan Khan
Canola at flowering Pind Dadan Khan
Onion filed at Pind Dadan Khan
Potato harvested at Pind Dadan Khan

Page 23
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Crop Statistics: 2011-12
NEWS/UPCOMING
EVENTS:
The area estimate and forecast for potato yield and production worked by SUPARCO are as follows:
Province
Potato: Autumn Crop ,2011-12
Area
(estimate)
000 ha
Yield
(forecast )
tons/ha
Punjab 244.48 24.4 5.965
Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa
Production
(forecast)
million tons
8.95 14.0 0.126
Total 253.43 24.0 6.091
Agriculture News
TCP to buy 0.2 million tons of sugar
TCP has finalized a deal to buy 0.2 million tons of sugar. Two bidders Hussain Sugar
mill and Sheiko Sugar mills, quoted the lowest bid of Rs 46,250 per ton. TCP has
offered other bidders to match the lowest .The ECC of the Cabinet has asked the
TCP to assess the reasonability of sugar price offered by the sugar mills in response
to tender opened on 23 rd Dec, 2011.
Saudi Arabia signs 2 accords worth USD 172m
Saudi Arabia will provide two soft loans worth USD 172 million for construction of
infrastructure for Malakand, region and import of urea fertilizer. This was announced
during a signing ceremony of the two agreements worth USD 172 million
on 29 th Dec, 2011.
The first agreement is a soft loan worth USD 72 million allocated for improving
infrastructure in Malakand, North / South Waziristan and Bajaur and to increase the
agricultural productivity. The amount will also be used to develop the educational
standards in these areas while the health sector would also be promoted.
The second loan agreement is worth USD 100 million for import of urea to be
used during Rabi season that will benefit the agriculture sector. It will assist to produce
additional crops including food and others.
Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission
SPARCENT, Islamabad, Main Islamabad Highway 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tel.: (+92) 51 4611792
Fax: (+92) 51 4611796
E-mail: sgs@ suparco.net.pk
http://www.suparco.gov.pk