Bo Andersen - The Norwegian Scientific Academy for Polar Research
Bo Andersen - The Norwegian Scientific Academy for Polar Research
Bo Andersen - The Norwegian Scientific Academy for Polar Research
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Truth and Belief in Science – <br />
a Climate Change Perspective<br />
<strong>Bo</strong> <strong>Andersen</strong>!<br />
<strong>Norwegian</strong> Space Centre!<br />
03-06-10!
Do You believe in Climate Change and is<br />
it true that it is man made?!<br />
03-06-10!
What is ”truth” in science?!<br />
Aristotle: Constant <strong>for</strong>ce = constant<br />
! !speed!<br />
Newton: ! F = m a!<br />
Einstein: ! F = mʼ a!<br />
03-06-10!
Unambigious Answers?!<br />
Belief and Truths belong in<br />
religions and courts.!<br />
At the cutting edge of any<br />
science there will be<br />
contradicting high quality<br />
results. !<br />
Science is not democratic, but<br />
this does not imply that a<br />
minority has more insight. !<br />
Science advances by the<br />
disproval of and replacement<br />
of accepted knowledge.!<br />
03-06-10!
What do we “scientists” really do?!<br />
Falcification! Accountability! Unprejudiced! Truth!<br />
Science! +++! +++! ++! - - -!<br />
<strong>Research</strong>! +! +++! +! - - -!<br />
Investigations! -! ++! +! +!<br />
Studies! - -! - +! - -! +!<br />
Opinions! - - -! - -! - -! ++!<br />
Faith! - - -! - - -! - - -! +++!<br />
03-06-10!
Relationship to Climate Science !<br />
Not one, but numerous<br />
scientific fields.!<br />
Not a question of proving, but<br />
gaining insight, understanding<br />
and the power of prediction.!<br />
Models are essential tools in<br />
this quest.!<br />
If you treat models of complex<br />
interacting systems as<br />
representations of nature, you<br />
move into the realms of faith.!<br />
03-06-10!
”Everyone talks about the Weather”!<br />
Enormous amounts of faith, beliefs and direct falsification<br />
on internet.!<br />
Very little quality science published by the ”sceptics”.!<br />
Scientists, professors and other cranks issue strong<br />
opinions way beyond their competence (just look at me). !<br />
Conspiracy theories and sacrificial roles flourish. !<br />
Media, politicians and partly ourselves want simple<br />
answers <strong>for</strong> complicated and difficult questions, they<br />
seldom exist.!<br />
03-06-10!
Climate Debate?!<br />
More an asymmetric quarrel with vested interests, straw men<br />
and political overtones.!<br />
Asymmetric ”discussion”, more or less competent scientists<br />
versus amateurs.!<br />
“Amateurs” is a menagerie of individuals and groups:!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Scientist with more or less well founded criticisms, mostly from<br />
other fields.!<br />
People with ”hangups”, often without knowledge of scientific<br />
method and picking out single discrepancies.!<br />
People mixing up “climate” and “weather”.!<br />
Political and economic interest and lobby groups.!<br />
On all sides media and “believers” with very selective vision.!<br />
Organized campaigns to miscredit IPCC. !<br />
03-06-10!
Cold in Europe… record warm January globally!!<br />
9 <br />
<strong>Norwegian</strong> Space Centre <br />
03-06-10<br />
03-06-10!
Some undisputed facts concerning Climate!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>The</strong> Sun is the driver of the climate system, variation in<br />
insolation influences the climate.!<br />
<strong>The</strong> Earths radiative balance determines the global mean<br />
temperature, without a ”Green House Effect” we would not<br />
exist. !<br />
Variation in the atmospheres composition of gasses that trap<br />
heat will influence climate, exactly how much has uncertainty. !<br />
Changes in global glaciation the last millions of years dominated<br />
of variation of insolation caused by changing orbital parameters. !<br />
In decreasing order of importance the main ”Green House<br />
Gasses” are: H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O.!<br />
From the end of the eighteenth century the human consumption<br />
of fossile fuels have changed the constitution of the Earths<br />
atmosphere significantly. !<br />
03-06-10!
<strong>The</strong> Major Uncertainties!<br />
<br />
<br />
Lacking understanding of long<br />
term internal variation or<br />
oscillations in the climate<br />
systems.!<br />
Major feedback mechanisms:!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Clouds and cloud <strong>for</strong>mation!<br />
Ocean/atmosphere/cryosphere!<br />
Vertical and latitudinal effects!<br />
Surface change and permafrost!<br />
<br />
<br />
Scaling factors <strong>for</strong> radiative<br />
<strong>for</strong>cing.!<br />
At smaller level impact of solar<br />
variability.!<br />
03-06-10!
Best estimates now (IPCC)!<br />
03-06-10!
With 2009!<br />
03-06-10!
Temperatures are a real hassle!!<br />
03-06-10!
Apples and Oranges!<br />
03-06-10!
This is what it is really about!<br />
03-06-10!
Even Further back in time!<br />
03-06-10!
Only from Space!<br />
03-06-10!
Well known measurements!<br />
Global temperature<br />
Atmospheric CO 2 content<br />
03-06-10!
Mostly models and indirect measurements!<br />
Modeller<br />
Global temperatur<br />
Solutstråling, maks. utslag<br />
03-06-10!
Correlations – not science!<br />
03-06-10!
Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to<br />
human activities
A nice correlation, but?!<br />
03-06-10!
Change of Arctic Sea Ice!<br />
03-06-10!
A new regime?!<br />
03-06-10!
Reasons to worry?!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Mankinds burning of fossile fuels have changed the composition of<br />
the atmosphere in an unprecedented manner, not reproduced by<br />
natural variations the last million years.!<br />
Solar variation may have larger influence than current accepted<br />
conclusions. !<br />
<br />
But since solar variability has not over 850 thousand years produced anything<br />
like that observed the last 200 years, it seems a bit strange that it shouldact<br />
differently coincidently with mankinds burning of fossile fuels. !<br />
We can do next to nothing with the Sun, orbital parameters or<br />
vulcanoes.!<br />
Even the most pesimistic IPCC emission scenarios are too<br />
optimistic, at least <strong>for</strong> the first decades. !<br />
Must refrain from energy colonialism or imperialism. !<br />
03-06-10!
Conclusions (1)!<br />
Significant uncertainty in the extent of the predicted change,<br />
but the risks are even more significant. !<br />
Ef<strong>for</strong>ts must be focussed on the dominating mechanisms.!<br />
<strong>The</strong> IPCC consensus process is conservative, not the<br />
opposite. Better scientific foundation <strong>for</strong> decisions than most<br />
other issues.!<br />
No indications of conspiracies, financing mechanisms will<br />
always have impact.!<br />
More quality science/research from “sceptics” is clearly<br />
wanted.!<br />
<strong>The</strong> power of prediction in the models is improving, but still<br />
have a long way to go.!<br />
03-06-10!
Conclusions (2)!<br />
More than enough<br />
knowledge to insist on<br />
emission reductions.!<br />
Errors, misinterpretations<br />
and direct mistakes on all<br />
sides, clearly mostly with<br />
the amateurs!!<br />
In general “Climate<br />
Science” is as good and<br />
sound as any crosssectorial<br />
science.!<br />
03-06-10!
Change language