Nov 2009 - Travel Business Analyst

contd from p1 – Market Monitor
-9.2; Feb -13.3; Jan -10.4; Dec -5.3; Nov -7.0; Oct
-4.9; Sep -3.9. ACI.
• Germany visitor arrivals: Aug +1.7; Jul -0.4;
Jun -8.1; May -3.8; Apr -8.2; Mar -7.5; Feb -9.9;
Jan -9.0; Oct -1.2; Sep +1.4. WTO.
• Hawaii visitor arrivals: Aug +0.3; Jul +1.3;
Jun -5.2; May -6.4; Apr -1.5; Mar -17.2. PATA.
• Italy visitor arrivals: Jul +4.0; Jun -6.1; May
-8.2; Apr +5.2; Mar -6.3; Feb -3.3; Jan -6.5; Oct
-1.8; Sep -3.1. WTO.
• Japan Airlines seat sales Europe: Aug +3.2;
Jul -6.1; Jun -15.9; May -19.9; Apr -14.3.
• Jet Blue Airways seat sales: Sep +12.3; Aug
+4.4; Jul +4.0; Jun +0.6; May +1.5; Apr +0.8;
Mar -4.4; Feb -4.1.
• London airports international passengers,
Gatwick Heathrow Stansted: Sep -1.2 +0.1
-10.6; Aug -5.2 +0.6 -6.4; Jul -5.4 +1.2 -4.3;
Jun -8.1 -2.9 -10.2; May -6.7 -3.7 -18.3; Apr
-3.1 +3.0 -12.1; Mar -18.6 -7.7 -15.2. BAA.
• London hotels: Aug occupancy -0.8pts, rate
-7.9; Jul occupancy +3.0 pts, rate -13.7; Jun
+0.3p -7.1; May +1.4p -5.4; Apr 1.6p -11.8;
Mar 0.2p -3.4; Feb -2.0p -8.0. TRI.
• Lufthansa seat sales (ttl, Eur/dom): Sep +24.9
+29.4; Aug +13.4 +15.8; Jul 0.0 +15.0; Jun -5.5
-1.6; May -5.1 -3.1; Apr -6.1 -4.5; Mar -2.3 -1.9;
Feb -10.5 -9.1; Jan -9.3 -7.6; Dec -3.7 -2.2; Nov
-2.3 -3.5; Oct -1.4 -3.0; Sep +1.1 -0.4.
• Netherlands visitor arrivals: Jul +3.8; Jun
+6.4; May -9.6; Apr +13.9; Mar -21.3; Feb
-12.1; Jan -8.6; Dec -10; Nov -10; Oct -10; Sep
-15. WTO.
• Paris CDG airport passengers: Jul -4.4; Jun
-6.5; May -7.1; Apr -1.9; Mar -9.0; Feb -8.7; Jan
-6.4; Dec -2.6; Nov -3.7; Oct +3.4; Sep -2.8. ACI.
• Paris hotels: Aug occupancy -7.6pts, rate
-7.9; Jul occupancy +2.1 pts, rate -5.5; Jun
occupancy +1.1p -0.7; May -5.8p, rate -13.7;
Apr -8.9p -11.9; Mar -7.4p -8.8; Feb -12.1p
-13.0; Jan -3.5p -3.7; Dec -4.7p +1.0. TRI.
• Rome FCO airport passengers: Jul -7.3; Jun
-11.9; May -8.4; Apr -3.1; Mar -1.9; Feb -6.2;
Jan -8.6; Dec -6.5; Nov -5.8; Oct +0.7; Sep
+5.7. ACI.
• Ryanair seat sales: Sep +16.9; Aug +19.1; Jul
+18.8; Jun +13.0; May +8.9; Apr +11.8; Mar
+4.8; Feb +7.4; Jan +10.9; Dec +10.6.
• Southwest Airlines seat sales: Aug -3.0; Jul
+0.1; Jun -6.4; May -8.3; Apr -1.5; Mar -5.2.
• Spain visitor arrivals: Sep -9.5; Aug -8.1; Jul
-6.1; Jun -10.0; May -11.7; Apr -1.7; Mar -20.8;
Feb -15.9; Jan -10.1; Dec -14.0; Nov -12.0. gov.
• Switzerland visitor arrivals: Aug +0.4; Jul -3.1; Jun
-5.7; May -11.0; Apr -3.6; Mar -13.4; Feb -11.1; Jan
-3.3; Nov -8.2; Oct -1.9; Sep -2.8. WTO.
• Turkey visitor arrivals: Sep +4.9; Aug -1.2; Jul
+6.1; Jun -3.1; May -1.9; Apr +4.5; Mar -8.2; Feb
+0.5; Jan -4.0; Nov 7.7; Oct 13; Sep 5.0. WTO.
• UK resident departures: Aug -11.3; Jul -13.7;
Jun -17.7; May -13.8; Apr -11.0; Mar -22.8; Feb
-24.0; Jan -17.3; Dec -11.3; Nov -2.4; Oct -11.7;
Sep -6.1. gov.
• UK visitor arrivals: Aug -7.7; Jul -7.1; Jun
+3.2; May -15.7; Apr -4.0; Mar -10.9; Feb -21.1;
Jan -10.3; Dec -18.0; Nov -16.2; Oct -5.5; Sep
-10.1. gov.
• United Airlines seat sales: Sep -8.8; Aug
contd on p5
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
contd from p1 – France
cause the scheme would be for helping
so-called disadvantaged people (although
this includes the young and the
old, not generally assumed to be ‘disadvantaged’),
and a challenge would be
regarded as inhumane. Also, it would
be relatively easy for France to alter
this plan for it to become some sort of
medical subsidy, and so outside commercial
protection laws.
Easiest government support for
‘social tourism’ could be in the
form of discounts on travel products
- where the government may
actually pay companies to offer
their products and services at lower
prices.
But AF also wants to help by
building what it calls “affordable
accommodation”.
Coming from the market that gave
Accor’s Formule 1 US$45/€30-pernight
hotels to the world that might
seem ironic. In fact, such ‘affordable
accommodation’ may be more similar
to what trade unions did in the times
of communist economies in Europe;
many built holiday hostels for use by
their workers in leisure regions, usually
in the same country.
Indeed, these socialist moves by AF
also seem to be a flashback 20 years to
the policies in state-driven socialist
economies.
World arrivals
Growth for 2010
Latest calculations from the World
Tourism Organization indicate that
worldwide visitor arrivals dropped
7% over the first eight months of the
year. The WTO now forecasts a 5%
drop for the whole year; that neatly
matches its forecast since early
2009 - which was for a 4-6% drop.
Monthly percentage falls have
been reducing. For the two highseason
months of July and August,
falls were 3% in both months compared
with 8% in the first half.
Visitor spending, however, has
fallen slightly more - down 9-10%
in the first half, with a 6-8% fall expected
over the whole year.
For 2010, the WTO forecasts
1-3% growth.
Also, the WTO’s ‘Confidence Index’
is also improving. The share of
pundits with a negative outlook for
the next four months has decreased
from 62% to 42%, while for 30%
prospects are ‘equal’, and for 28%
they are ‘better’ or ‘much better’.
Latest regional breakouts
show Europe down 8% year-todate,
Asia Pacific down 5% YTD,
and the Americas down 7% YTD.
Separately, our World Travel Industry
Index, which indexes all travel-segment
results not just visitor arrivals,
shows a 9.4% fall in Q1, 5.3% fall in
Q2, 7.3% fall in H1, but a drop of only
2.6% in both July and August - a great
improvement on the 7.3% fall in May
and 6.2% in June.
Germany
Updates
• The 20th anniversary of the fall
of the Berlin Wall next month will
probably be a major attraction for
2009 for visitors to Germany’s capital.
To commemorate the fall, and
the peaceful revolution movement
which led to the collapse of the East
Germany state, the city has set up
special visitor itineraries, such as a
wall trail, and will host exhibitions
in some museums.
Arrivals increased 4.5% over January-August
to 5.53mn, but foreign
arrivals increased less, up 3.2%.
However, growth will probably pick up
substantially this month, and we estimate
that will push growth up closer to
7.5% for the whole year.
Over Jan-Aug, major markets
showing the best performers
were France (102k, up 15%), Italy
(173k +14%) and Sweden (66k
+13%). However, arrivals from the
UK dropped 10% (182k) and from
Spain 1% (133k).
• The promotional focus in 2010
of Germany’s destination-marketing-organisation
will be on family
holidays and Germany’s creativity,
particularly on design and architecture.
contd on p4
Volume 19 Number 11
ISSN-0256-419X
Email annual subscription rate is €800 for the monthly 12-page Europe edition, €800 for the monthly 12-page Asia Pacific edition, €100 for the monthly
single-page Net Value, and €100 for the monthly single-page People-in-Travel. There are linked rates for these four products; see back page for more
details and subscription form. Airmailed print-copy subscriptions are also available.
Europe: 46 Blvd des Arbousiers, 83120 Ste Maxime, France. Tel: (33-4)-9443-8160, Email: TBAoffice@gmail.com
Asia Pacific: GPO Box 12761, Hong Kong, China. Tel: (852)-2507-2310, Email: TBAoffice@gmail.com
Editor: Murray Bailey. Business Development Managers: Raymonde Perpignani, Simmey Wong.
Design by Context Design & Publishing. Printed by Image Press. Copyright © Travel Business Analyst Ltd, 2009. www.travelbusinessanalyst.com
2
TRAVEL BUSINESS ANALYST EUROPE NOVEMBER 2009