Observation and Analysis for the Semiconductor Cycle with a State ...
Observation and Analysis for the Semiconductor Cycle with a State ...
Observation and Analysis for the Semiconductor Cycle with a State ...
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Motivation <strong>and</strong> Background:<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> <strong>Cycle</strong>s<br />
Change %<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
-20<br />
-40<br />
-60<br />
Semicondoctor market<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> manufacfuring equipment market<br />
1990 1995 2000 2005<br />
• Cyclical behaviors in<br />
semiconductor markets have<br />
been well-known as “Silicon<br />
<strong>Cycle</strong>”<br />
• Influential factors <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
behaviors from observations<br />
– Business cycles<br />
– Unbalance of supply <strong>and</strong><br />
dem<strong>and</strong><br />
– Memory cycles <strong>with</strong> periodical<br />
technology shifts<br />
• Expectation <strong>for</strong> modulations<br />
– Consolidation of industry<br />
– Diversification in electronics<br />
dem<strong>and</strong><br />
Graduate School of Business Science/University of Tsukuba<br />
3
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