POINT OUT
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<strong>POINT</strong><br />
<strong>OUT</strong><br />
Will India get its first Prime<br />
Minister from Tamil Nadu?<br />
The AIADMK has made it clear that Amma is no longer<br />
interested in being just a kingmaker, but a king<br />
» VIJAY GROVER<br />
The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and<br />
chief of the All India Anna Dravida<br />
Munnetra Kazhagam (AIAD-<br />
MK) J Jayalalithaa has also thrown<br />
her hat in the ring by projecting herself<br />
as the prime ministerial candidate for the<br />
2014 Lok Sabha elections. Jayalalithaa has<br />
joined hands with the Left parties in a bid<br />
to rake up a third front.<br />
Prakash Karat of Communist Party of<br />
India (M) has said that the other regional<br />
parties will join them to form a non-Congress<br />
BJP alternative as Lok Sabha elections<br />
approach.<br />
Jaya was always ambitious, rather too<br />
ambitious as political observers would<br />
say, but the timing of her announcement<br />
to take pot shot at the top post has rattled<br />
the BJP and its PM nominee Narendra<br />
Modi. The BJP was and still is banking on<br />
Jaya’s support to make his dream come<br />
true.<br />
The 39 Lok Sabha seats of Tamil Nadu<br />
and the single Pondicherry seat have traditionally<br />
played a crucial role in the government<br />
formation at the Centre for several<br />
decades now, ever since the Congress<br />
fortunes waned with the rise of regional<br />
parties. Since 1970s, Tamil Nadu has<br />
been a non-Congress-ruled state and the<br />
ruling party in the state has managed to<br />
play, or rather dictate terms, to the Centre.<br />
That has been the case from the time<br />
of MGR when he forced former prime<br />
minister late Rajiv Gandhi to accept conditional<br />
support to LTTE for keeping the<br />
Tamil political sentiments on his side, to<br />
the present political crisis in Tamil Nadu<br />
over injustice to the Sri Lankan Tamils in<br />
the island nation.<br />
The competitive efforts of the Dravidian<br />
parties in Tamil Nadu to champion<br />
the Sri Lankan Tamils’ miseries and forcing<br />
the Centre to abandon its ties with<br />
the Sri Lanka government clearly reflect<br />
Jaya was always ambitious, rather<br />
too ambitious as political observers<br />
would say, but the timing of her<br />
announcement to take pot shot at<br />
the top post has rattled the BJP and<br />
its PM nominee Narendra Modi<br />
the mood and highlight the issue that will<br />
decide the winner for the parliamentary<br />
seats in the state.<br />
For over a year, the aggressive stance<br />
of the present government led by Jayalalithaa<br />
managed to drive a wedge between<br />
the DMK and the Congress, forcing<br />
the DMK to desert the UPA ship for<br />
two crucial reasons – the singling out of<br />
A Raja on the 2G spectrum scam and the<br />
ambivalent stance of the UPA on Sri Lankan<br />
affairs.<br />
The DMK - Congress split has not<br />
come as music to the BJP ears but increased<br />
its worries. The BJP leaders, who<br />
on every visit to Chennai used to make<br />
the customary visit to Poes Garden residence<br />
of Puratchi Talaivi Jayalalithaa,<br />
have skipped the stop. The BJP, in a<br />
stronger Jayalalithaa, has been quick to<br />
calculate not just her rise as another<br />
prime ministerial candidate but also one<br />
who could question its PM aspirant Narendra<br />
Modi.<br />
Sensing an opportunity to play a<br />
crucial role in the government formation<br />
in 2014 where many regional parties<br />
harbour the ambition to take on the role<br />
of kingmakers could be decisive. The AI-<br />
ADMK sees Amma (Jayalalithaa) as the<br />
king and not just kingmaker, especially<br />
if the BJP does not breach the 150-seat<br />
mark. Sources in the AIADMK indicate<br />
that given the present situation in Tamil<br />
Nadu, Jaya could romp home with at least<br />
30 of the 39 seats in the polls. An alliance<br />
with the BJP may not give her any added<br />
strength, but could on the contrary prove<br />
futile. The 2004 experiment of an alliance<br />
with the BJP saw a large section of the minority<br />
dumping her, forcing both the BJP<br />
and the AIADMK to snap ties just after<br />
the poll debacle.<br />
This time around, Jayalalithaa has<br />
been very clear and ruled out any possible<br />
truck with the BJP which has been<br />
a very small player in the state. An alliance<br />
with the BJP and projecting Modi<br />
for the PM plank may force her to share<br />
credit with Modi, which she wants to<br />
avoid. Her strategy is to keep the minority<br />
Christian and Muslim voters<br />
happy.<br />
Interestingly, her fans and supporters<br />
address her as ‘Varangaala Pradhamar’<br />
which translated into English<br />
means ‘future prime minister’. The AI-<br />
ADMK has been projecting her as the<br />
next Prime Minister of the country at<br />
every public/ party meeting which Jaya<br />
has addressed. The question remains<br />
whether a collective Tamil sentiment<br />
will dominate the voting patterns and<br />
vote to get a first Prime Minister from<br />
Tamil Nadu for the country over a<br />
Gujarati Modi.<br />
30<br />
FEBRUARY 2014
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