Festival Hydro's Notice of Application for Electrical Distribution Change

Festival Hydro Inc.
EB-2009-0263
Exhibit 3
Tab 2
Schedule 1
Page 8 of 24
Filed: August 28, 2009
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The monthly data used in the regression model and the resulting monthly prediction for the
actual and forecasted years are provided in Appendix A.
The sources of data for the various data points are:
a) Environment Canada website for monthly heating degree day and cooling degree
information. Data for the Stratford MOE was used;
b) The Ontario real GDP monthly index for the period January 1998 to December 2010 was
derived from the Government of Ontario’s 2003, 2008 and 2009 Ontario Economic
Outlooks from the Ontario Ministry of Finance.;
c) Population data was based on Census population data for the City of Stratford and Town
of St. Marys from the 1998, 2001 and 2006 Census data. Population statistics for the
smaller towns in Festival‘s service territories were obtained from the municipal offices.
As noted on the page above, the coefficient on population is negative. This is the result
of population growth in recent years increasing at a decreasing rate; and
d) The calendar provided information related to number of days in the month and the
spring/fall flag.
The annual kWh results of the above prediction formula compared to the actual annual purchases
from 1998 to 2008 are shown in the graph below.