Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment - Clean Energy Ministerial
Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment - Clean Energy Ministerial
Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment - Clean Energy Ministerial
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GLOBAL TRENDS IN<br />
CLEAN ENERGY<br />
INVESTMENT<br />
CLEAN ENERGY MINISTERIAL<br />
LONDON, 25 APRIL 2012<br />
Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive<br />
Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
Twitter: @MLiebreich<br />
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 1
AGENDA<br />
1. <strong>Investment</strong> activity<br />
2. Short-term issues<br />
3. Underly<strong>in</strong>g trends<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 2
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY,<br />
2004–11 ($BN)<br />
31%<br />
5% 5%<br />
$247bn<br />
$260bn<br />
1%<br />
22%<br />
$187bn $189bn<br />
35%<br />
$153bn<br />
51%<br />
$113bn<br />
39%<br />
$54bn<br />
$0bn<br />
$75bn<br />
$0bn<br />
$0bn<br />
$0bn<br />
$0bn<br />
$0bn<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted<br />
for re-<strong>in</strong>vested equity. Does not <strong>in</strong>clude proceeds from acquisition transactions<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 3
TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY<br />
In clean energy, a billion<br />
dollars isn’t cool. You know<br />
what’s cool?<br />
A trillion dollars.<br />
That’s cool<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, Columbia Pictures<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 4
CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY<br />
INVESTMENT, 2004–11 ($BN)<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
Fossil fuel<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
<strong>Clean</strong> energy<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
Note: <strong>Investment</strong> for new build – fossil fuel calculated from EIA & IEA numbers, clean energy<br />
taken from Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance totals. <strong>Clean</strong> energy capacity <strong>in</strong>cludes small<br />
distributed capacity.<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 5
FINANCIAL NEW INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY BY<br />
REGION, 2004-2011 ($BN)<br />
Europe<br />
North America<br />
29.9 32.9 38.8<br />
23.9<br />
35.1<br />
49.2<br />
11.8<br />
20.3<br />
32.2<br />
50.1 51.6 44.9 44.3<br />
38.9<br />
12.5<br />
6.0<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
Asia & Oceania<br />
57.6 60.6<br />
46.8<br />
Middle East & Africa<br />
26.1<br />
34.2<br />
18.4<br />
6.4<br />
11.7<br />
South America<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
5.3<br />
0.3 0.1 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.4<br />
2.4<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
15.7<br />
10.2 10.5 12.8 9.2<br />
5.5<br />
3.1<br />
0.6<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
Note: New <strong>in</strong>vestment volume adjusts for re-<strong>in</strong>vested equity. Total values <strong>in</strong>clude estimates for<br />
undisclosed deals. This comparison does not <strong>in</strong>clude small-scale projects or R&D estimates.<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 6
NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY<br />
2011 ($BN)<br />
by cont<strong>in</strong>ent<br />
by trade block<br />
Central &<br />
South<br />
America<br />
6%<br />
Middle East<br />
& Africa<br />
1%<br />
ROW<br />
5%<br />
Europe<br />
24%<br />
Asia &<br />
Oceania<br />
39%<br />
BASIC<br />
41%<br />
OECD<br />
54%<br />
North<br />
America &<br />
Caribbean<br />
30%<br />
Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not<br />
adjusted for re-<strong>in</strong>vested equity<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 7
NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY<br />
Q1 2004–Q1 2012 ($BN)<br />
52.9<br />
52.3<br />
44.2<br />
42.8<br />
44.1<br />
30.7 30.4<br />
24.5 26.3<br />
20.2 20.6<br />
15.2 17.0<br />
13.2<br />
6.5 5.7 5.5 7.3 8.8 10.5<br />
29.2<br />
38.3 36.0<br />
19.938.0<br />
35.6<br />
35.4 34.0 35.4 38.7<br />
34.3<br />
37.2<br />
26.7<br />
Q1<br />
04<br />
Q2<br />
04<br />
Q3<br />
04<br />
Q4<br />
04<br />
Q1<br />
05<br />
Q2<br />
05<br />
Q3<br />
05<br />
Q4<br />
05<br />
Q1<br />
06<br />
Q2<br />
06<br />
Q3<br />
06<br />
Q4<br />
06<br />
Q1<br />
07<br />
Q2<br />
07<br />
Q3<br />
07<br />
Q4<br />
07<br />
Q1<br />
08<br />
Q2<br />
08<br />
Q3<br />
08<br />
Q4<br />
08<br />
Q1<br />
09<br />
Four quarter runn<strong>in</strong>g average<br />
Q2<br />
09<br />
Q3<br />
09<br />
Q4<br />
09<br />
Q1<br />
10<br />
Q2<br />
10<br />
Q3<br />
10<br />
Q4<br />
10<br />
Q1<br />
11<br />
Q2<br />
11<br />
Q3<br />
11<br />
Q4<br />
11<br />
Q1<br />
12<br />
Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not<br />
adjusted for re-<strong>in</strong>vested equity<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 8
NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2011 – 2012 YTD<br />
150<br />
NEX<br />
NASDAQ<br />
S&P 500<br />
140<br />
130<br />
120<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12<br />
Note: Values as of 19 April 2012; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011.<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 9
EUROPEAN FINANCIAL CRISIS<br />
/ / / /<br />
Photo: Bloomberg<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 10
COST OF DEBT, TYPICAL EUROPEAN WIND FARM<br />
(%)<br />
7%<br />
6%<br />
5%<br />
4%<br />
Project spread<br />
Credit <strong>in</strong>surance<br />
Term swap<br />
6M Euribor<br />
3%<br />
ECB rate<br />
2%<br />
Risk perception<br />
Reduced competition<br />
Basel III<br />
1%<br />
0%<br />
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12<br />
Note: Data as of 31 March 2012, Term swap – 8 year Euro swap rate<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 11
SOLYNDRA<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 12
US WIND CAPACITY ADDITIONS, 2006–15<br />
(GW)<br />
Production tax credit<br />
NOT extended<br />
6.3<br />
9.0<br />
8.4<br />
10.2<br />
10.0<br />
7.1<br />
6.7<br />
9.5<br />
8.5<br />
10.0<br />
2.5<br />
2.5<br />
5.2<br />
4.9 4.4<br />
3.5<br />
0.5<br />
5.0<br />
1.5<br />
3<br />
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 13
CLEAN ENERGY POLICY<br />
96 COUNTRIES<br />
WITH POLICY<br />
SUPPORT<br />
POLICY<br />
WEAKENING<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 14
PV MODULE PRICES, 1976–2012<br />
($/W)<br />
100<br />
1976<br />
PRICES HAVE FALLEN<br />
75% SINCE 2008<br />
45% IN PAST YEAR<br />
10<br />
1985<br />
2003<br />
1<br />
2006<br />
2012<br />
2012<br />
0.1<br />
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000<br />
historic prices<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>ese c-Si module prices<br />
First Solar th<strong>in</strong>-film module cost<br />
Notes: Inflation adjustment us<strong>in</strong>g US PPI, R2 of c-Si regression = 0.94, R2 of FSLR regression = 0.98;<br />
data s<strong>in</strong>ce 2007 based on Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance Solar Spot Market Price Index<br />
/ / / /<br />
experience curve<br />
Th<strong>in</strong>-film experience curve<br />
MW (log)<br />
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, FSLR fil<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 15
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2010<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $4.03/W capex assumed for 2010<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 16
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2011<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $3.73/W capex assumed for 2011<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 17
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2012<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
Indonesia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $3.01/W capex assumed for 2012<br />
Australia<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 18
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2013<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $2.72/W capex assumed for 2013<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 19
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2014<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $2.51/W capex assumed for 2014<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 20
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2015<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $2.34/W capex assumed for 2015<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 21
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2016<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $2.19/W capex assumed for 2016<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 22
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2017<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $2.07/W capex assumed for 2017<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 23
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2018<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $1.97/W capex assumed for 2018<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 24
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2019<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $1.88/W capex assumed for 2019<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 25
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2020<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER<br />
kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $1.80/W capex assumed for 2020<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Indonesia<br />
Australia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 26
RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICE 2012, INSOLATION,<br />
RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE 2025<br />
0.40<br />
$/kWh<br />
0.35<br />
0.30<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
Indonesia<br />
Saudi Arabia<br />
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000<br />
25GW<br />
Potential<br />
residential<br />
EMEA ASOC AMER kWh/kW/year<br />
PV market<br />
/ / / /<br />
Denmark<br />
Germany<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
France<br />
More sun<br />
Italy<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Brazil<br />
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module degradation, 1%<br />
capex as O&M annually. $1.52/W capex assumed for 2025<br />
Australia<br />
Hawaii<br />
Turkey<br />
South Korea<br />
California<br />
New Jersey North India<br />
Israel<br />
Canada<br />
Argent<strong>in</strong>a<br />
North Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Texas<br />
Mexico<br />
South<br />
South India<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Source: Eurostat, grid operators, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong><br />
F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 27
WIND TURBINE PRICES, 1984-2011<br />
(€/MWH)<br />
4.0<br />
2.0<br />
1.0<br />
7%<br />
1984 1990 2000 2004 2011<br />
0.5<br />
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000<br />
MW<br />
Note: Learn<strong>in</strong>g curve (blue l<strong>in</strong>e) is least square regression: R 2 = 0.77 and 7% learn<strong>in</strong>g rate; data<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce 2008 based on Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance W<strong>in</strong>d Turb<strong>in</strong>e Price Index<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, ExTool<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 28
EVOLUTION OF WIND POWER, 1984 - 2011<br />
2011<br />
34% capacity factor<br />
1984<br />
21% capacity factor<br />
/ / / /<br />
Photos: Bloomberg<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 29
AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND, 1984-<br />
2011 (€/MWH)<br />
500<br />
100<br />
50<br />
14%<br />
10<br />
1984 1990 2000 2004 2011<br />
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000<br />
MW<br />
Note: Learn<strong>in</strong>g curve (blue l<strong>in</strong>e) is least square regression: R 2 = 0.88 and 14% learn<strong>in</strong>g rate.<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, ExTool<br />
/ / / /<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 30
GRID-COMPETITIVE CLEAN ENERGY<br />
New<br />
coal<br />
Best W<strong>in</strong>d<br />
Gas at<br />
$6/MMBtu<br />
= =<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 31
COST PREMIUM OVER TIME FOR NEW TECHNOLOGY WITH<br />
ADDED BENEFIT<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
TELEPHONES ($/MINUTE)<br />
PV (EUR/kWh)<br />
0.50<br />
0.40<br />
Mobile<br />
0.60<br />
0.50<br />
German feed-<strong>in</strong> tariff<br />
0.30<br />
0.20<br />
0.10<br />
Fixed<br />
0.40<br />
0.30<br />
0.20<br />
0.10<br />
Retail electricity<br />
and taxes<br />
0.00<br />
0.00<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, Federal Communications Commission, BSW Solar, Eurostat<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 32
CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030<br />
($BN)<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
/ / / /<br />
Source: New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance <strong>Global</strong> Futures 2008, Bloomberg New <strong>Energy</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH, 25 APRIL 2012 TWITTER: @MLiebreich 33
THANK YOU!<br />
MICHAEL LIEBREICH<br />
TWITTER: @MLiebreich<br />
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