Alpine Mass Movements: Implications for hazard assessment and ...
Alpine Mass Movements: Implications for hazard assessment and ...
Alpine Mass Movements: Implications for hazard assessment and ...
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<strong>Alpine</strong> <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>:<br />
<strong>Implications</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping<br />
Seite 1
Seite 2<br />
Inhalt<br />
Seite 3<br />
Florian Rudolf-Miklau, Richard Bäk, Franz Schmid, Christoph Skolaut:<br />
Hazard Mapping <strong>for</strong> <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>: Strategic Importance <strong>and</strong><br />
Transnational Development of St<strong>and</strong>ards in the ASP-Project ADAPTALP<br />
Seite 12 6<br />
Imprint / Disclosure<br />
Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment <strong>and</strong> Water Management,<br />
Marxergasse 2, 1030 Vienna, Austria.<br />
Verein der Diplomingenieure der Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung,<br />
Bergheimerstrasse 57, 5021 Salzburg, Austria<br />
Editorial Team:<br />
Florian Rudolf-Miklau, Richard Bäk, Christoph Skolaut <strong>and</strong> Franz Schmid<br />
Florian Rudolf-Miklau:<br />
Principles of Hazard Assessment <strong>and</strong> Mapping<br />
Richard Bäk, Hugo Raetzo, Karl Mayer,<br />
Andreas von Poschinger, Gerlinde Posch-Trözmüller:<br />
Mapping of Geological Hazards: Methods, St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong><br />
Procedures (State of Development) - Overview<br />
Mateja Jemec & Marko Komac:<br />
An Overview of Approaches <strong>for</strong> Hazard Assessment<br />
of Slope <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong><br />
Seite 14<br />
Seite 24<br />
Seite 48<br />
Coordination:<br />
Barbara Kogelnig-Mayer<br />
Layout:<br />
Studio Kopfsache, Mondsee<br />
Cite as:<br />
BMLFUW (2011): <strong>Alpine</strong> <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>: <strong>Implications</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> mapping, Special Edition of Journal of Torrent, Avalanche, L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong><br />
Rock Fall Engineering No. 166.<br />
This publication was implemented within the framework of EU-project<br />
AdaptAlp, Workpackage 5, <strong>and</strong> is co-financed by the European Regional<br />
Development Fund (ERDF)<br />
BLOCK 1: Key-note papers<br />
Rol<strong>and</strong> Norer:<br />
Legal Framework <strong>for</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong> Mapping of Geological Hazards<br />
on the International, European <strong>and</strong> National Levels<br />
Karl Mayer, Bernhard Lochner:<br />
Wolfram Bitterlich:<br />
Internationally Harmonized Terminology <strong>for</strong><br />
Wildbachverbauung und Ökologie Widerspruch oder sinnvolle Ergänzung?<br />
Geological Risk: Glossary (Overview)<br />
Michael Mölk, Thomas Sausgruber, Richard Bäk, Arben Kociu:<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> (Rock Fall <strong>and</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide) in Austria<br />
Seite 82 Seite 70 Seite 64<br />
Hugo Raetzo, Bernard Loup:<br />
Geological Hazard Assessment in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
Seite 94<br />
Cover picture: Großhangbewegung Rindberg, Gde. Sibratsgfäll, Vorarlberg<br />
Source: die.wildbach<br />
BLOCK 2<br />
Stefano Campus:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Mapping in Piemonte (Italy):<br />
Danger, Hazard & Risk<br />
Seite 102
Seite 4<br />
Inhalt<br />
Seite 5<br />
Marko Komac, Mateja Jemec:<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment<br />
<strong>for</strong> Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in Slovenia<br />
Seite 108<br />
BLOCK 2: Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Karl Mayer, Andreas von Poschinger:<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
Geological Dangers (<strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>) in Bavaria<br />
Didier Richard:<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment<br />
<strong>for</strong> Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in France<br />
Pere Oller, Marta González, Jordi Pinyol, Jordi Marturià, Pere Martínez:<br />
Goeo<strong>hazard</strong>s Mapping in Catalonia<br />
Claire Foster, Matthew Harrison & Helen J. Reeves:<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in Great Britain<br />
Karl Mayer, Bernhard Lochner:<br />
International Comparison: Summary of the Expert<br />
Hearing in Bolzano on 17 March 2010<br />
Seite 158 Seite 150 Seite 142 Seite 130 Seite 118
Seite 6<br />
Seite 7<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen (Steinschlag, Rutschungen, Felsgleitungen) bedrohen den alpinen<br />
Lebensraum und verursachen zahlreiche Risiken. Durch die intensive Raumnutzung in den<br />
Bergtälern besteht ein zunehmender Bedarf an genauen Gefahrenkarten für diese Gefahrenarten.<br />
Aufgrund fehlender Daten und zuverlässiger Methoden für die Gefahrenbeurteilung<br />
wurden bisher keine generellen St<strong>and</strong>ards für die Gefahrdarstellung von Rutschungen und<br />
Steinschlägen entwickelt. Die Unsicherheit in der Beurteilung der Gefahren wird durch den<br />
Einfluss des Klimaw<strong>and</strong>els noch erhöht. Das Projekt ADAPTALP zielt darauf ab, diese Lücke<br />
durch die Entwicklung transnationaler St<strong>and</strong>ards für die Gefahrenzonenplanung für <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen<br />
zu schließen.<br />
FLORIAN RUDOLF-MIKLAU, RICHARD BÄK, FRANZ SCHMID, CHRISTOPH SKOLAUT<br />
Hazard Mapping <strong>for</strong> <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>:<br />
Strategic Importance <strong>and</strong> Transnational Development<br />
of St<strong>and</strong>ards in the ASP-Project ADAPTALP<br />
Gefahrendarstellung von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen:<br />
Strategische Bedeutung und länderübergreifende<br />
Entwicklung von St<strong>and</strong>ards im Projekt ADALPTALP<br />
Summary:<br />
<strong>Mass</strong> movements (rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides, rock slides) are major threats <strong>for</strong> the <strong>Alpine</strong> living<br />
space <strong>and</strong> cause various risks. Due to the intensive l<strong>and</strong> use in the mountain valleys, there is<br />
an urgent need <strong>for</strong> reliable <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>for</strong> these types of <strong>hazard</strong>s. Missing data <strong>and</strong> the lack<br />
of reliable methods <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of <strong>hazard</strong>s has obstructed the development of general<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall. The uncertainties <strong>and</strong> inaccuracies<br />
of models are increased by the impact of climate change. The project ADAPTALP (within the<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> Space Program) aims to close this gap by creating transnational st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping concerning geological risks (mass movements).<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> Space at risk: Importance of <strong>hazard</strong> maps<br />
In the <strong>Alpine</strong> countries, natural <strong>hazard</strong>s constitute<br />
a security risk in many regions. Floods, debris<br />
flows, avalanches, l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls<br />
threaten people, their living environments, their<br />
settlements <strong>and</strong> economic areas, transport routes,<br />
supply lines, <strong>and</strong> other infrastructure. They<br />
constitute a major threat to the bases of existence<br />
of the population. The increasing settlement<br />
pressure <strong>and</strong> area consumption, the opening up<br />
of transport routes in the Alps as well as strong<br />
growth rates in tourism have brought about a<br />
considerable spatial extension of endangered<br />
areas. With the rising dem<strong>and</strong>s on welfare <strong>and</strong><br />
quality of life, the need <strong>for</strong> safety <strong>and</strong> protection<br />
of the population increased as well.<br />
Hazard maps that show areas at risk by natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s are of paramount importance <strong>for</strong> the<br />
development of <strong>Alpine</strong> regions. The maps count<br />
among the active planning measures in natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> management <strong>and</strong> serve to the safety of<br />
existing settlements <strong>and</strong> their inhabitants as<br />
well as to the steering of l<strong>and</strong>-use only outside<br />
of endangered areas. Since the beginning of<br />
1970’s, these maps have been established in<br />
several countries (Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Austria, France)<br />
<strong>for</strong> the <strong>hazard</strong>s “flood”, “debris flow” <strong>and</strong><br />
“snow avalanches”. However there are no legal<br />
(technical) st<strong>and</strong>ards available <strong>for</strong> the outline<br />
of areas endangered by mass movements (e.g.<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides, rock fall). The <strong>assessment</strong> of these<br />
processes concerning the frequency <strong>and</strong> intensity<br />
of events (disasters) is difficult <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>ing<br />
due to the lack of measurements <strong>and</strong> basic data.<br />
In addition, the knowledge of geotechnical<br />
parameters, physical properties <strong>and</strong> triggering<br />
mechanisms of the displacement processes still<br />
are fragmentary, although wide progress were<br />
achieved by improved monitoring methods <strong>and</strong><br />
the detailed analysis of past events.<br />
Recently the expansion of settlement areas<br />
in <strong>Alpine</strong> valleys <strong>and</strong> the growing vulnerability of<br />
human facilities have significantly increased the risk<br />
<strong>for</strong> natural disasters caused by mass movements.<br />
The growing dem<strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> maps that cover<br />
these risky processes has initiated strong ef<strong>for</strong>ts in all<br />
mountainous countries in Europe to develop exact<br />
methods <strong>and</strong> appropriate st<strong>and</strong>ards that enable the<br />
production of <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>for</strong> mass movements<br />
with sufficient accuracy. By bundling these initiatives<br />
the ASP (<strong>Alpine</strong> Space Program/Funding Initiative of<br />
the European Commission) project ADAPTALP – in<br />
cooperation with other projects like SAFELAND,<br />
PERMANET or MASSMOVE – aims at the<br />
development of technical st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> provision<br />
of harmonized quality criteria <strong>for</strong> all member states.
Seite 8<br />
Seite 9<br />
<strong>Mass</strong> movements: Hazard processes on slopes<br />
A variety of processes exist by which materials<br />
can be moved through the slope system. These<br />
processes are generically known as mass<br />
movement or mass wasting. <strong>Mass</strong> movements<br />
per definition are movements of bodies of soil,<br />
sediments such as residual soil <strong>and</strong> bed rock<br />
which usually occur along steep-sided slopes <strong>and</strong><br />
mountains. <strong>Mass</strong> movements can be classified<br />
due to the rate of movement (rapid or slow), the<br />
type of movement (falling, sliding or flowing) <strong>and</strong><br />
to the type of material involved (soil, sediments or<br />
rock debris).<br />
Fig. 1: L<strong>and</strong> slide in cohesive soil resulting from slope<br />
instabilities <strong>and</strong> saturation of material by water.<br />
Abb. 1: Rutschung in bindigem Boden resultierend aus<br />
Hanginstabilitäten und Wassersättigung des Bodens.<br />
<strong>Mass</strong> movements have direct <strong>and</strong><br />
indirect impact on a number of human activities.<br />
The steepness <strong>and</strong> structural stability of slopes<br />
determines their suitability <strong>for</strong> agriculture, <strong>for</strong>estry,<br />
<strong>and</strong> human settlement. Instable slopes can also<br />
become a <strong>hazard</strong> to humans if their materials<br />
move rapidly through the process of mass wasting.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides can suddenly rush down a steep slope<br />
causing great destruction across a wide area<br />
of habitable l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> sometimes also floods by<br />
damming up bodies of water. Expenses related to<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides include actual damages to structures<br />
or property, as well as loss of tax revenues on<br />
devalued properties, reduced real estate values<br />
in l<strong>and</strong>slide prone areas, loss of productivity of<br />
agricultural l<strong>and</strong>s affected by l<strong>and</strong>slides, <strong>and</strong> loss<br />
of industrial productivity because of interruption<br />
of transportation systems by l<strong>and</strong>slides. Not only<br />
rapid types of mass movements are harmful.<br />
Slow movement of creep does more long term<br />
economic damage to roads, railroads, building<br />
structure <strong>and</strong> underground pipes.<br />
The operation of mass movement<br />
processes relies upon the development of<br />
instability in the slope system. The predominant<br />
source of stress is the gravitational <strong>for</strong>ce. Other<br />
factors that affect mass movements are the<br />
steepness of slopes, the lithological property of<br />
the slope materials, <strong>and</strong> the amount of water in<br />
the material. The two most important parameters<br />
in mass movement is the angle of friction <strong>and</strong> the<br />
cohesion.<br />
The magnitude of the gravitational<br />
<strong>for</strong>ce is related to the angle of the slope <strong>and</strong> the<br />
weight of slope sediments <strong>and</strong> rock. The following<br />
equation models this relationship:<br />
F = W sin Ø<br />
where<br />
F is gravitational <strong>for</strong>ce,<br />
W is the weight of the material occurring at<br />
some point on the slope, <strong>and</strong><br />
Ø is the angle of the slope.<br />
The stability of a slope depends on the<br />
relationship between the stresses applied to the<br />
materials that make up the slope <strong>and</strong> their internal<br />
strength. <strong>Mass</strong> movement occurs when the stresses<br />
exceed the internal strength. Slopes composed of<br />
loose materials, such as s<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> gravel, derive<br />
their internal strength from frictional resistance,<br />
which depends on the size, shape, <strong>and</strong> arrangement<br />
of the particles. Slopes consisting of silt <strong>and</strong> clay<br />
particles obtain it from particle cohesion, which is<br />
controlled by the availability of moisture in the soil.<br />
Rock slopes generally have the greatest internal<br />
strength due to the crystalline structures.<br />
Instability is not always caused by an<br />
increase in stress. In some cases, the internal<br />
strength of the materials can be reduced resulting<br />
in the triggering of a mass movement. Failure of<br />
the slope material can occur over a range of time<br />
scales. Some types of mass movement involve<br />
rather rapid, spontaneous events. Sudden failures<br />
tend to occur when the stresses exerted on the<br />
slope materials greatly exceed their strength <strong>for</strong><br />
short periods of time. <strong>Mass</strong> movement can also<br />
be a less continuous process that occurs over long<br />
periods of time. Slow failures often occur when<br />
the applied stresses only just exceed the internal<br />
strength of the slope system.<br />
Many factors can act as triggers <strong>for</strong> slope<br />
failure. One of the most common is prolonged<br />
or heavy rainfall. Rainfall can lead to mass<br />
movement through three different mechanisms.<br />
Often these mechanisms do not act alone. The<br />
saturation of soil materials with water increases<br />
the weight of slope materials which then leads<br />
to greater gravitational <strong>for</strong>ce. Saturation of soil<br />
materials can also reduce the cohesive bonds<br />
between individual soil particles resulting in the<br />
reduction of the internal strength of the slope.<br />
Lastly, the presence of bedding planes in the slope<br />
material can cause material above a particular<br />
plane below ground level to slide along a surface<br />
lubricated by percolating moisture.<br />
Additionally, a large variety of other<br />
trigger mechanism <strong>for</strong> mass movement other than<br />
the gravitational are known, such as:<br />
• Earthquake shocks cause sections of<br />
mountains <strong>and</strong> hills to break off <strong>and</strong> slide<br />
down.<br />
• Human modification of the l<strong>and</strong> or<br />
weathering <strong>and</strong> erosion help loosen large<br />
chunks of earth <strong>and</strong> start them sliding<br />
downhill.<br />
• Vibrations from machinery, traffic, weight<br />
loading from accumulation of snow,<br />
stockpiling of rock, from waste piles <strong>and</strong><br />
from buildings <strong>and</strong> other structures.<br />
In the Alps, mass movements occur in a wide<br />
range of processes consisting of bedrock <strong>and</strong> soil<br />
or a mixture of both.<br />
<strong>Mass</strong> movement on hard rock slopes<br />
is often dramatic <strong>and</strong> quick. They involve the<br />
downward movement of small rock fragments<br />
pried loose by gravitational stress, the enlargement<br />
of joints during weathering <strong>and</strong>/or freeze-thaw<br />
processes (rock fall). Larger scale, down slope<br />
movement of rock can also occur along welldefined<br />
joints or bedding planes. This type of<br />
movement is called rock slide. Rock slides often<br />
occur when a fracture plane develops causing<br />
overlying materials to slide down slope.<br />
Slopes <strong>for</strong>med from clays <strong>and</strong> silt<br />
sediments display somewhat unique mass<br />
movement processes. Two common types of<br />
mass movements in these cohesive materials are<br />
rotational slips (slumps) <strong>and</strong> mudflows. Both of<br />
these processes occur over very short time periods.<br />
Rotational slips or slumps occur along clearly<br />
defined planes of weakness which generally have<br />
a concave <strong>for</strong>m beneath the earth's surface. These<br />
processes can be caused by a variety of factors.<br />
The most common mechanical reason <strong>for</strong> them<br />
to occur is erosion at the base of the slope which<br />
reduces the support <strong>for</strong> overlying sediments.<br />
Mudflows occur when slope materials become<br />
so saturated that the cohesive bonds between<br />
particles is lost. In a mudflow there is enough<br />
water to allow the mixture to flow easily, as a<br />
viscous stream. Mudflows can occur on very low<br />
slope angles because internal particle frictional<br />
resistance <strong>and</strong> cohesion is negligible.
Seite 10<br />
Seite 11<br />
Type<br />
Fall<br />
Topple<br />
An earth flow is slower moving than a mudflow<br />
<strong>and</strong> involves a mass of material that retains rather<br />
distinct boundaries as it moves. “Debris flow” is<br />
a term used generally <strong>for</strong> rapid mass movements<br />
consisting of water <strong>and</strong> residual soil. The term<br />
implies a heterogeneous mixture of materials<br />
including a considerable fraction of particles<br />
that are coarser than the particles in mud. Debris<br />
flows occur on slopes as well as in laterally<br />
confined channels.<br />
Bedrock<br />
Rock fall<br />
Rock<br />
avalanche<br />
Rock<br />
topple<br />
Engineering soil<br />
predominantly …<br />
… coarse<br />
(Debris fall)<br />
(Debris<br />
topple)<br />
… fine<br />
(Earth fall)<br />
(Earth topple)<br />
Slide Rock slide Debris slide Earth slide<br />
Spread<br />
Flow<br />
Rock<br />
spread<br />
(Rock<br />
flow)<br />
(Debris<br />
spread)<br />
Debris flow<br />
(in channels)<br />
(Earth spread)<br />
Earth flow<br />
Tab. 1: Types of mass movements (classification) after<br />
Raetzo.<br />
Tab. 1: Typen von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen (Klassifikation)<br />
ASP-project ADAPTALP: Adaptation of<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong> management to climate change<br />
Climate change is, to a large extent, constituted by<br />
increasing temperatures <strong>and</strong> changed precipitation<br />
patterns. Any change of these critical factors<br />
has implications on the frequency <strong>and</strong> extent of<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s including mass movements. A<br />
major impact on the intensity of mass movements<br />
at high altitudes (above 2300 m in the Alps) has<br />
thaw of permafrost <strong>and</strong> the retreat of glaciers due<br />
to the increasing temperatures. The uncertainties<br />
<strong>and</strong> the increase of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s due to the<br />
impacts of climate change require concerted<br />
management in the <strong>Alpine</strong> Space. It must be<br />
managed on a transnational, national, regional<br />
<strong>and</strong> local scale to effectively save human life,<br />
settlements <strong>and</strong> infrastructure. Nevertheless, there<br />
is still a lack of precise data taking climate change<br />
into account. The result is an insufficient accuracy<br />
of available models <strong>and</strong> inaccurate prediction of<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> menacing catastrophic events.<br />
The impact of climate change increases these<br />
uncertainties.<br />
Harmonized cross-sectoral <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> mapping must be balanced<br />
on a transnational level. The ADAPTALP project<br />
(www.adaptalp.org) focuses on the harmonization<br />
of the various national approaches <strong>and</strong> methods<br />
<strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of <strong>hazard</strong>s related to mass<br />
movements. Along with the harmonization<br />
of terminology, an important issue tackled by<br />
ADAPTALP is the provision of reliable data <strong>and</strong><br />
models <strong>for</strong> this kind of processes. The more<br />
reliable the in<strong>for</strong>mation basis, the more efficiently<br />
adaptation strategies on local <strong>and</strong> regional level<br />
can be implemented. The project is based on an<br />
integrated transnational approach. That means<br />
that a comprehensive comparison of all available<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> methods is carried out covering all<br />
countries in the <strong>Alpine</strong> region (Austria, Germany,<br />
Italy, France, Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Slovenia) <strong>and</strong> other<br />
European states with a considerable share of<br />
mountain regions (Great Britain, Spain, Norway).<br />
The transnational exchange of knowledge <strong>and</strong><br />
the international harmonization in method <strong>and</strong><br />
procedure will raise the quality of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
considerably. A general “state-of-the-art” <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping concerning mass movements seems to be<br />
within reach.<br />
Fig. 2: Transnational st<strong>and</strong>ards in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping are of major importance <strong>for</strong> the prevention of<br />
catastrophic events according to l<strong>and</strong> use in endangered areas.<br />
Abb. 2: Die Entwicklung von länderübergreifenden St<strong>and</strong>ards in der Gefahrendarstellung ist bei<br />
der Prävention von Katastrophenereignissen von großer Bedeutung, da gefährdete Gebiete immer<br />
stärker genutzt werden.<br />
Hazard maps <strong>for</strong> mass movements<br />
Hazard zones are designated areas threatened<br />
by natural risks such as avalanches, l<strong>and</strong>slides or<br />
flooding. The <strong>for</strong>mulation of these <strong>hazard</strong> zones is<br />
an important aspect of spatial planning. The basis<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> maps is a comprehensive <strong>assessment</strong><br />
of geological <strong>and</strong> hydro(geo)logical framework<br />
conditions, slope instabilities, relevant triggering<br />
mechanisms, properties of displacement<br />
processes, potential risks <strong>and</strong> the vulnerability<br />
of endangered areas (objects). Consequently it is<br />
essential to distinguish the three aspects of mass<br />
movement <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping:<br />
• Dangers (susceptibilities): Assessment<br />
<strong>and</strong> characterization of threat (typology,<br />
morphology, inventory of mass movements).<br />
• Hazards: Spatial <strong>and</strong> temporal probability,<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting of evolution<br />
(scenarios) are needed.<br />
• Risks: Interaction between a threat having<br />
particular <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> human activities.<br />
In principle, these theoretical concepts are well<br />
known by experts but<br />
may cause problems in<br />
practice when applied<br />
in a legal framework.<br />
It is not unusual <strong>for</strong><br />
unsuitable types of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps to be<br />
applied <strong>for</strong> the wrong<br />
purposes. For example<br />
it is often to find<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory<br />
maps used as <strong>hazard</strong><br />
or risk maps.<br />
When mapping<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
(mass movements) in<br />
principle we have to<br />
distinguish between two situations:<br />
1. Scientific studies on mass movements with no<br />
legal implications (e.g. on l<strong>and</strong> use planning):<br />
Typical cases are studies carried out by<br />
universities (research institutes). The aim of<br />
these studies is to underst<strong>and</strong> the mechanical<br />
features of instability or to study different ways of<br />
evolution of the phenomenon (scenarios) in order<br />
to assess the susceptibility of investigated areas.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories can be made by means of<br />
a historical or morphological approach.<br />
2. Susceptibility/Hazard index/Hazard maps that<br />
have direct (obligatory) consequences <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
use planning <strong>and</strong> building trade at different<br />
scale: The scale used to present the results of<br />
the <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> depends on the desired<br />
product (susceptibility map, <strong>hazard</strong> index map,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zone map) <strong>and</strong> must be balanced with<br />
the precision requirements according to the<br />
spatial level of application (supra-regional,<br />
regional, local). The legal significance of these<br />
maps requires technical st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> a “stateof-the-art”<br />
concerning <strong>for</strong>mal requirements<br />
(e.g. investigation methods, documentation),
Seite 12<br />
Seite 13<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> procedures of the check<br />
<strong>and</strong> approval of the maps.<br />
ADAPTALP (in Work Package 5) will<br />
evaluate, harmonize <strong>and</strong> improve different<br />
methods of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping applied in the <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
area. A main emphasis will be on a comparison<br />
of methods <strong>for</strong> mapping geological <strong>hazard</strong>s in<br />
the individual countries. A glossary will facilitate<br />
interdisciplinary <strong>and</strong> multilingual cooperation as<br />
well as support the harmonization of the various<br />
methods. In selected model regions methods<br />
to adapt risk analysis to the impact of climate<br />
change will be tested. This should support the<br />
development of <strong>hazard</strong> zone planning towards<br />
Fig. 3: Example <strong>for</strong> a susceptibility map of the Arlberg region<br />
(Vorarlberg/Austria) after Ruff<br />
Abb. 3: Beispiel einer Suszeptibilitätskarte der Arlbergregion<br />
(Vorarlberg/Österreich) nach Ruff<br />
a climate change adaptation strategy. The results<br />
will be summarized in a synthesis report.<br />
These fields of research within the<br />
project contain the topics to work out the<br />
“minimum st<strong>and</strong>ards” (minimal requirements) <strong>for</strong><br />
the creation of danger (susceptibility) <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides. The first step is the evaluation<br />
of the “state of the art” in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping in each<br />
involved country. Two main questions will be<br />
answered by the project:<br />
• What kinds of danger (susceptibility),<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps are officially applied<br />
in each country?<br />
• Which st<strong>and</strong>ards are these maps based on?<br />
The second step will be the “harmonization” of<br />
the different methods, which are used in several<br />
countries. There<strong>for</strong>e similarities should be worked<br />
out <strong>and</strong> the “least common denominator” in the<br />
methods of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping should be found.<br />
The final step will be the creation of guidelines<br />
<strong>and</strong> recommendation, which include the results<br />
of this “harmonization”. They will include<br />
“minimum requirements <strong>for</strong> the creation of danger<br />
(susceptibility), <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps”.<br />
Other important results – developed in cooperation<br />
with other projects as MASSMOVE – will be:<br />
• Definition of minimal requirements <strong>for</strong> the<br />
collection of the relevant data of endangered<br />
areas <strong>and</strong> cartographic representation of<br />
slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls.<br />
• Specification of minimal requirements <strong>for</strong><br />
the spatial description of the dangers.<br />
• Development of minimal requirements <strong>for</strong><br />
the determination of the <strong>hazard</strong> potential of<br />
slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls.<br />
• Development of tools <strong>for</strong> the reduction of<br />
the risk potential by consideration of the<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s during l<strong>and</strong> use planning by the<br />
local administrations <strong>and</strong> during the l<strong>and</strong><br />
use as well as <strong>for</strong> the planning of preventive<br />
measures.<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
DI Dr. Florian Rudolf-Miklau<br />
Bundesministerium für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft,<br />
Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft,<br />
Abteilung IV/5, Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung<br />
Federal Ministry <strong>for</strong> Agriculture, Forestry,<br />
Enviroment <strong>and</strong> Water Management,<br />
Department IV/5, Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control<br />
1030 Wien, Marxergasse 2<br />
Tel.: (+43 1) 71 100 - 7333<br />
FAX: (+43 1) 71 100- 7399<br />
Mail: florian.rudolf-miklau@lebensministerium.at<br />
Homepage: http://www.lebensministerium.at/<strong>for</strong>st<br />
Dr. Richard Bäk<br />
Amt der Kärntner L<strong>and</strong>esregierung, Abt. 15 Umwelt<br />
Unterabteilung Geologie und Bodenschutz,<br />
A – 9020 Klagenfurt, Flatschacher Straße 70<br />
Tel: +43 - (0) 50536 - 31510<br />
Fax: +43 - (0) 50536 - 41500<br />
Mob. +43 - (0) 664 - 8053631510<br />
Mail: richard.baek@ktn.gv.at<br />
DI Franz Schmid<br />
Bundesministerium für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft,<br />
Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft,<br />
Abteilung IV/5, Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung<br />
Federal Ministry <strong>for</strong> Agriculture, Forestry,<br />
Enviroment <strong>and</strong> Water Management, Department<br />
IV/5, Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control<br />
1030 Wien, Marxergasse 2<br />
Tel.: (+43 1) 71 100 - 7338<br />
FAX: (+43 1) 71 100- 7399<br />
Mail: franz.schmid@lebensministerium.at<br />
Homepage: http://www.lebensministerium.at/<strong>for</strong>st<br />
DI Christoph Skolaut<br />
Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung,<br />
Sektion Salzburg<br />
Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control, District Salzburg<br />
5020 Salzburg, Bergheimerstraße 57<br />
Tel.: (+43 662) 871853 – 303<br />
FAX: (+43 662) 870215<br />
Mail: christoph.skolaut@die-wildbach.at<br />
Homepage: http://www.lebensministerium.at/<strong>for</strong>st<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
BATES A. L., JACKSON J. A.:<br />
Glossary of Geology. American Geological Institute, 3rd Edition, 1987.<br />
CAMPUS S., BABERO S., BOVO S., FORLATI F. (EDS.):<br />
Evaluation <strong>and</strong> prevention of natural risks. Taylor <strong>and</strong> Francis/Balkema,<br />
2007.<br />
GLADE T., ANDERSON M., CROZIER M. J. (HRG.):<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Hazards <strong>and</strong> Risk. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2005.<br />
GRUNER U., WYSS R.:<br />
Anleitung zur Analyse von Rutschungen. Swiss Bull. angew. Geol., Vol.<br />
14/1+2, 2009.<br />
RAETZO, H. , RICKLI, C.:<br />
Rutschungen. In: Bezzola G.R, & Hegg, C. (Hrsg.) 2007: Ereignisanalyse<br />
Hochwasser 2005, Teil 1 – Prozesse, Schäden und erste Einordnung.<br />
Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU, Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt WSL.<br />
Umwelt-Wissen Nr. 0707, 2007.<br />
RUFF, M.:<br />
GIS-gestützte Risikonanalyse für Rutschungen und Felsstürze in den<br />
Ostalpen (Vorarlberg, Österreich). Georisikokarte Vorarlberg. Diss. Univ.<br />
Karlsruhe, 2005.<br />
SIDLE R. C., OCHIAI H.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides processes, prediction <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use. American Geographical<br />
Union, water resources monograph 18, Springer Verlag, 2006.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 14<br />
Seite 15<br />
FLORIAN RUDOLF-MIKLAU<br />
Principles of Hazard Assessment <strong>and</strong> Mapping<br />
Grundlagen der Analyse und<br />
Bewertung von Naturgefahren<br />
Summary:<br />
The article summarizes the general principles <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. The<br />
main emphasis lies on the basic approaches <strong>and</strong> methods of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> with special<br />
attention to the “frequency-intensity-concept” (including the deficits of this approach). The<br />
strategic importance of “preventive” planning with regards to the use <strong>and</strong> development of<br />
endangered areas in mountain areas is discussed. In addition, a summary of the most important<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> categories of <strong>hazard</strong> (risk) mapping is provided.<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Der Beitrag fasst die generellen Grundlagen der Analyse und Bewertung von Naturgefahren<br />
zusammen. Der Schwerpunkt liegt im Bereich der grundlegenden Ansätze und Methoden für<br />
die Gefahrenbewertung, wobei das „Häufigkeits-Intensitäts-Konzept“ besondere Beachtung<br />
findet (einschließlich der Defizite dieses Ansatzes). Weiters wird auf die strategische Bedeutung<br />
der „präventiven Planung“ hinsichtlich der Nutzung und Entwicklung von gefährdeten<br />
Gebieten im Gebirge eingegangen. Abschließend erfolgt eine zusammenfassende Darstellung<br />
der wichtigsten St<strong>and</strong>ards und Kategorien der kartographischen Darstellung von Naturgefahren.<br />
Basic concept of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
Effective prevention against natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
requires a better underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the processes<br />
occurring in nature. The primary aim of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong> is to gain a deep <strong>and</strong> comprehensive<br />
knowledge of these processes in order to provide<br />
accurate prognosis of the expected magnitude<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong>ous events <strong>and</strong> the corresponding<br />
damaging effects. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU in SUDA<br />
ET. AL., 2011 [18.]) Another important dem<strong>and</strong><br />
is the prediction of the time of occurrence <strong>and</strong><br />
duration of a catastrophic event (predictability<br />
<strong>and</strong> advanced warning time; Fig. 1) (RUDOLF-<br />
MIKLAU, 2009 [14.]). The initial purpose of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> is the provision of basic<br />
knowledge <strong>for</strong> the planning of protection<br />
measures (e.g. flood control, avalanche control),<br />
which requires quantitative in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
the order <strong>and</strong> magnitude of catastrophic events<br />
<strong>and</strong> their probable damaging consequences on<br />
human health, economic activities, environment,<br />
<strong>and</strong> cultural heritage.<br />
Predictability<br />
Earthquake<br />
Rockfall<br />
seconds<br />
According to the well-established basic concept of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>, the procedure can be divided<br />
in three distinct steps (HÜBL ET AL., 2007 [9.]:<br />
• The survey of basic in<strong>for</strong>mation (data)<br />
• The analysis of <strong>hazard</strong>s (<strong>and</strong> risks)<br />
• The valuation of <strong>hazard</strong>s (<strong>and</strong> risks)<br />
As a rule, the survey of in<strong>for</strong>mation related to<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s focuses on the acquisition of<br />
basic data on relevant factors in nature. The survey<br />
includes “geo-data” (topography, geology, <strong>and</strong><br />
soil), “meteo-data” (climate, weather), “hydrodata”<br />
(precipitation, run-off, <strong>and</strong> groundwater)<br />
<strong>and</strong> “eco-data” (environmental parameters). In<br />
addition, data on past (historic) events represent a<br />
major source of in<strong>for</strong>mation. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU,<br />
2009 [14.]) For the purpose of risk <strong>assessment</strong>,<br />
data <strong>for</strong> natural processes must be combined with<br />
data related to human activities. These sources of<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation include demographic <strong>and</strong> economic<br />
statistics, data on l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> agriculture,<br />
<strong>and</strong> records of damages caused by past events<br />
(BRÜNDL ET AL., 2009 [5.]).<br />
Drought<br />
Debris flow<br />
Floods<br />
Storm<br />
Wildfire<br />
Volcanism<br />
Deceases<br />
Avalanches<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
minutes hours days weeks<br />
Fig. 1: Predictability of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (RUDOLF-MIKLAU, 2009 [14.]).<br />
Abb. 1: Vorhersagbarkeit von Naturgefahren (RUDOLF-MIKLAU, 2009 [14.]).<br />
Advanced warning time(T)
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 16<br />
Seite 17<br />
Management Presentation Validation Survey<br />
HAZARDS<br />
Hazard analysis<br />
Localization <strong>and</strong> topography<br />
Triggering mechanism<br />
Displacement processes/scenarios<br />
Frequency/intensitiy<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong><br />
Levels of <strong>hazard</strong> (risk)<br />
Classification of intensity<br />
Intensity criteria: e.g. pressure<br />
Process-/Suszeptibility maps<br />
Hazard (in<strong>for</strong>mation) maps<br />
Hazard zone maps<br />
The analysis of <strong>hazard</strong>s is subdivided into several<br />
tasks: the survey <strong>and</strong> localization of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
sources, the identification of triggering factors,<br />
the description of the triggering <strong>and</strong> displacement<br />
process <strong>and</strong> the potential effects (impact) on<br />
objects. The results of the <strong>hazard</strong> analysis are<br />
usually mapped in specific types of <strong>hazard</strong> maps<br />
(e.g. susceptibility maps, intensity maps).<br />
The analysis of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s provides a<br />
comprehensive image of the processes, their causes<br />
<strong>and</strong> effects, but requires additional in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
concerning the order of magnitude of the relevant<br />
event. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU in BOLLSCHWEILER<br />
ET AL., 2011 [3.]) Consequently, the valuation of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s aims at the description of magnitude in a<br />
graded manner. Hazards scales, physical intensity<br />
criteria or intensity classifications count among<br />
the established methods to present the magnitude<br />
of events. Usually the intensity of a <strong>hazard</strong>ous<br />
process is functionally related to the frequency<br />
of its occurrence. In practice this “frequencyintensity-concept”<br />
is the preferentially applied<br />
RISKS<br />
Risk analysis<br />
Analysis of damages: direct/indirect damage<br />
Damage potential<br />
Damage scenarios<br />
Risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
Validation of risks<br />
Risk acceptance (aversion)<br />
Risk map<br />
Cartographical presentation of risks<br />
Risk management<br />
Definition of protection goals<br />
Creation of protection concepts<br />
Management plans<br />
Protection measures<br />
Effectiveness / Efficiancy<br />
Fig. 2: System of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk<br />
management<br />
(RUDOLF-<br />
MIKLAU/SAU-<br />
ERMOSER, 2011<br />
[16.]).<br />
Abb. 2: System<br />
des Gefahrenund<br />
Risikomanagements<br />
(RU-<br />
DOLF-MIKLAU/<br />
SAUERMOSER,<br />
2011 [16.]).<br />
method <strong>for</strong> most natural <strong>hazard</strong>s in order to value<br />
their effects (see below). (HÜBL, 2010 [8.])<br />
Natural <strong>hazard</strong>s in the <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
environment are a complex system consisting<br />
of process chains with multiple interactions<br />
<strong>and</strong> dependencies. Thus the <strong>assessment</strong> of a<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> is not a mono-causal procedure but<br />
must take into account a large variety of more<br />
or less probable courses. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU<br />
in BOLLSCHWEILER ET AL., 2011 [3.]) The<br />
“scenario analysis” was established in risk<br />
management as an appropriate method to<br />
solve the complexity of comprehensive <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong>. Scenarios implicate that not only a<br />
single process but all relevant developments of<br />
an event within a defined period of recurrence<br />
are taken into account. (MAZZORANA ET AL.,<br />
2009 [12.]) In practice this means:<br />
• Several <strong>assessment</strong> methods (e.g.<br />
morphologic, historic, stochastic) are<br />
applied.<br />
• Models have to be calibrated with<br />
regionally measurements <strong>and</strong> data from<br />
documented events ahead of application.<br />
• The application of physical models is not<br />
only per<strong>for</strong>med <strong>for</strong> one single data set but<br />
<strong>for</strong> a frequency range of the input values.<br />
• Scenarios are checked concerning their<br />
plausibility.<br />
Approaches to <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>: The “frequencymagnitude-concept”<br />
<strong>for</strong> design events (DE)<br />
According to ONR 24800:2008 [13.] an event<br />
represents the entirety of all processes occurring<br />
in a temporal, areal <strong>and</strong> causal relationship <strong>and</strong><br />
corresponds to a specific probability of recurrence<br />
<strong>and</strong> intensity. The extreme event represents the<br />
maximum magnitude observed in the concerning<br />
catchment or risk area. The design event (DE)<br />
is applied as reference value (criteria) <strong>for</strong> the<br />
planning of protection measures <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps <strong>and</strong> represents the striven level of safety<br />
(acceptable risk). (RUDOLF-MIKLAU, 2009 [14.])<br />
The underlying concept of intensity <strong>and</strong><br />
frequency was originally established by WOLMAN<br />
& MILLER (1960) [19.]. Intensity in colloquial use<br />
refers to strength or magnitude of a process or<br />
event. Intensity of natural events (<strong>hazard</strong>s) can be<br />
expressed by physical criteria like discharge, flow<br />
depth, pressure (process energy) or area (mass)<br />
of deposited debris. (GEBÄUDEVERSICHERUNG<br />
GRAUBÜNDEN, 2004 [7.]) In general the<br />
frequency represents the period of recurrence<br />
between two events with comparable magnitude.<br />
Frequency is often expressed as return period,<br />
which is equal to the reciprocal of the exceedance<br />
probability of extreme precipitation or discharge<br />
values. As a rule the DE is determined according<br />
to a defined return period (e.g. flood with return<br />
period of 100 years). Frequency <strong>and</strong> intensity are<br />
functionally correlated. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU in<br />
BOLLSCHWEILER ET AL., 2011 [3.])<br />
The frequency-intensity-concept is based<br />
on extreme value statistics <strong>and</strong> is appropriate <strong>for</strong><br />
answering two basic questions:<br />
• How often does an extreme event of<br />
defined intensity occur statistically?<br />
• What is the expected extreme value <strong>for</strong> a<br />
defined time period?<br />
The two established methods to analyse extreme<br />
events are the “block-maxima-method” <strong>and</strong><br />
the “peak-over-threshold-method” (KLEEMAYR<br />
in RUDOLF-MIKLAU & SAUERMOSER, 2011<br />
[16.]). For the statistic analysis, r<strong>and</strong>om <strong>and</strong><br />
representative samples (data sets) are needed<br />
(e.g. time series of extreme precipitation). By<br />
means of statistical methods, it is attempted to<br />
conclude from properties of the sample to the<br />
rules of the “total population”. In technical terms,<br />
an unknown stochastic distribution function (e.g.<br />
Gumbel, Fréchet, Weibull) is derived from an<br />
empirical distribution of measured values. The<br />
most common field of application of the extreme<br />
value statistics is the prediction of weather<br />
extremes, extreme discharge in rivers <strong>and</strong> torrents<br />
of the extreme run-out distance of falls, slides or<br />
falls (mass movements or avalanches). The key<br />
problem of the method is the limited availability of<br />
measurements (data sets) that cover a sufficiently<br />
long period of time. In most cases the available<br />
data represents<br />
• either a too short observation (measuring)<br />
period,<br />
• or is fragmentary<br />
or both. Besides this major disadvantage, the<br />
method of extreme value statistics shows other<br />
considerable short comings.<br />
Especially <strong>for</strong> torrential processes, the frequencyintensity-function<br />
shows an “emergent” behavior<br />
implying a limited predictability of discharge<br />
from extrapolations of measurement data when<br />
a certain threshold value is exceeded. The event<br />
disposition of a catchment or risk area, defined
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 18<br />
Seite 19<br />
as the entirety of all conditions essential <strong>for</strong> the<br />
emergence of <strong>hazard</strong>ous processes, consists of the<br />
basic disposition (susceptibility) comprising all<br />
factors immutable over a long range of time (e.g.<br />
geology, soils) <strong>and</strong> the variable disposition, which<br />
is the sum of all factors subject to a short-term or<br />
seasonal change (e.g. precipitation, saturation of<br />
soil with water, l<strong>and</strong> use). If the variable disposition<br />
of a catchment or risk area is altered in the course<br />
of an event (e.g. exceedance of the water storage<br />
capacity of soil), the debris potential increases<br />
erratically, resulting in a possible transition of the<br />
predominant displacement process <strong>and</strong> a nonlinear<br />
increase of discharge. (HÜBL, 2010 [8.])<br />
The practical procedure of specification<br />
of a design event can be lucidly explained by the<br />
example of a “design flood” (RUDOLF-MIKLAU &<br />
SEREINIG, 2010 [15.]): Generally, a design flood<br />
[discharge in m³/s] with a return period of 100<br />
years represents the striven level of safety <strong>for</strong> flood<br />
(torrent) control measures in European countries.<br />
Expected values <strong>for</strong> a rainfall <strong>and</strong> flood events of a<br />
defined return period (including a corresponding<br />
confidence interval) can be derived from the<br />
hydraulic extreme value statistics. Flood statistics<br />
are based on the assumption that the observation<br />
period is representative <strong>for</strong> the long-term runoff<br />
behavior of the watershed. However, extreme<br />
flood events are qualified as “statistical outliers”<br />
that are not represented by the measured data<br />
collection (due to limited observation periods),<br />
but nevertheless contribute valuable in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
on hydrological extremes. Consequently, the<br />
statistically deduced design criterion should be<br />
supported by additional in<strong>for</strong>mation of temporal,<br />
spatial or causal reference. Especially the dating<br />
of historic flood events from chronicles or traces<br />
in nature (flood marks, “silent witnesses”) can<br />
provide precious additional in<strong>for</strong>mation on<br />
return periods, levels of flooding, or peak flood<br />
discharge. By dating historic events, extreme<br />
floods can approximately be related to a certain<br />
return period. A causal supplement of in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is gained if observed floods are analyzed with<br />
respect to their emergence regarding the weather<br />
conditions, the behavior of precipitation, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
disposition of the catchment area.<br />
In a first step, the determination procedure<br />
of the design flood requires the specification of<br />
the expected value of discharge by means of flood<br />
statistics <strong>and</strong> additional hydrological methods.<br />
From this basic design discharge, the design<br />
flood can be derived by taking into account solid<br />
transport, transient flow conditions <strong>and</strong> influences<br />
of stream morphology.<br />
The applicability of the frequencyintensity-concept<br />
is strongly limited <strong>for</strong> all types of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>for</strong> which measurements or observation<br />
data of extreme events are insufficiently or<br />
generally not available. In addition, it has to be<br />
taken into account that the period of recurrence of<br />
a triggering event can significantly differ from the<br />
frequency of the impact (damage) event. Recently,<br />
alternative concepts <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of<br />
magnitude of events are sought that could replace<br />
the “frequency-intensity-concept”. This holds<br />
especially true <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of extreme mass<br />
movements <strong>and</strong> avalanches where frequency<br />
hardly can be determined with sufficient accuracy.<br />
Methods of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
The aim of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> is the determination<br />
of relevant scenarios <strong>and</strong> the related return period<br />
<strong>for</strong> the purpose of providing a prognosis of the<br />
substantial process, the extension <strong>and</strong> intensity of<br />
an event as well as <strong>for</strong> the magnitude of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
(BRÜNDL ET AL., 2009 [5.]).<br />
Normally neither the physical properties<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> processes are completely clarified, nor<br />
is sufficient data on extreme events available.<br />
Consequently, the most important principle of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> is the compliance of a high<br />
redundancy in the procedures <strong>and</strong> methods applied<br />
(KIENHOLZ, 2005 [10.]). Two principle approaches<br />
are eligible <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> (Fig. 3):<br />
• The analysis of past events (retrospective<br />
indication).<br />
• The prognosis of future events (<strong>for</strong>esighted<br />
indication).<br />
Morphological Method: This method<br />
is based on the identification of triggering/<br />
displacement processes <strong>and</strong> the spatial distribution<br />
by means of “silent witnesses” (AULITZKY, 1992<br />
[1.]) in the morphology (deposition area) <strong>and</strong> at<br />
the vegetation (e.g. trees). Dendromorphology<br />
counts among these methods, which (besides<br />
other dating methods (BOLLSCHWEILER ET. AL.,<br />
2011 [3.])) provides<br />
Historical Method<br />
Retrospective Indication comprehensive time<br />
chronicles, witnesses<br />
series of past events.<br />
Statistical Method:<br />
is based on the assumption, that an occured event<br />
will reoccur with comparable course <strong>and</strong> effects.<br />
Morphological Method<br />
This method includes<br />
„silent witnesses“, dendromophology<br />
the analysis of<br />
measurements<br />
Statistical Method<br />
<strong>and</strong> observation<br />
extreme value statistics, triggering Foresightes Indication<br />
(monitoring) data by<br />
mechanism<br />
means of stochastic<br />
is based on the identification <strong>and</strong> analysis of factors<br />
Physical/Mathematical<br />
methods (e.g. extreme<br />
<strong>and</strong> processes, which represent evidence <strong>for</strong><br />
Method<br />
existing <strong>hazard</strong>s according to gained experiences. value statistics).<br />
Numerical/empirical models<br />
The method presupposes knowledge about the Nevertheless, the<br />
triggering mechanism, the displacement process derivation of reliable<br />
<strong>and</strong> the effect (impact) <strong>and</strong> includes the<br />
Pragmatic Method<br />
investigation of probability of recurrence<br />
(significant) trends<br />
Expert opinion (estimation)<br />
(return period).<br />
<strong>and</strong> prognoses<br />
requires a sufficient<br />
Fig. 3: Principle approaches to <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> (after KIENHOLZ, 2005 [10.]; modified).<br />
quantity of data <strong>for</strong><br />
Abb. 3: Grundlegende Vorgehensweisen bei der Gefährdungsanalyse<br />
a representative<br />
(nach KIENHOLZ, 2005 [10.]; geändert).<br />
time (observation)<br />
According to these principles, the following<br />
procedures can be chosen <strong>and</strong> should be<br />
applied corresponding to the rule of redundancy<br />
(HÜBL et al., 2007 [9.]):<br />
Historical Method: The method is based<br />
on the (qualitative <strong>and</strong> quantitative) analysis of<br />
reports, testimonies <strong>and</strong> chronicles of past events<br />
(catastrophes). This data provides evidences<br />
<strong>for</strong> the frequency of events, the triggering<br />
mechanism <strong>and</strong> the extension of the process as<br />
well as the damages occurred. As a rule, historic<br />
sources tend to be fragmentary <strong>and</strong> distorted due<br />
to subjective perception.<br />
period. (KLEEMAYR in RUDOLF-MIKLAU &<br />
SAUERMOSER, 2011 [16.])<br />
Physical/Mathematical Method: These<br />
methods are mainly based on numerical or<br />
empirical models, which provide in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(physical criteria) <strong>for</strong> the intensity of an event<br />
<strong>for</strong> a defined return period. In practice models<br />
are the preferred tool <strong>for</strong> the determination of<br />
design events in natural <strong>hazard</strong> engineering. Due<br />
to the limited accuracy of numerical models, the<br />
application always presupposes a calibration of<br />
regional measurements (data) <strong>and</strong> the validation<br />
of the results with expert opinions. In addition,
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models should not only be applied <strong>for</strong> a single<br />
data set but <strong>for</strong> a range of scenarios as well as <strong>for</strong> a<br />
distribution of input parameters. A comprehensive<br />
summary of available models <strong>for</strong> torrential<br />
processes is given in BERGMEISTER ET AL. (2009)<br />
[2.], <strong>for</strong> avalanches in RUDOLF-MIKLAU &<br />
SAUERMOSER (2011) [16.].<br />
Pragmatic Method: This method is<br />
based on the “expert opinion” of experiences<br />
practitioners <strong>and</strong> local experts. The pragmatic<br />
method is applied if other methods are not<br />
applicable or do not meet the goal of satisfying<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> (risk) <strong>assessment</strong>. In addition, this<br />
method serves as a redundancy <strong>and</strong> is used <strong>for</strong><br />
the validation of results of “exact” <strong>assessment</strong><br />
methods (mentioned above).<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> methods always<br />
suffer from major restrictions concerning their<br />
meaningfulness <strong>and</strong> accuracy. For the interpretation<br />
<strong>and</strong> validation of results, it is essential to know<br />
the sources of uncertainties <strong>and</strong> methodical<br />
short-comings. Some of these deficiencies are<br />
summarized below (KIENHOLZ, 2005 [10.]):<br />
• Limited availability of data<br />
• Limited observation (measuring) period<br />
• Lack of “direct” measurements (e.g.<br />
velocity of mass propagation during events;<br />
impact pressure)<br />
• Incomplete or false documentation of past<br />
events<br />
• Inconsistent quality of in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> data<br />
due to variable measuring (observation,<br />
monitoring, documentation) st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
• Uncertainties in the selection of relevant<br />
scenarios<br />
• Misjudgement of the effeminacy <strong>and</strong><br />
condition (usability) of existing protection<br />
measures<br />
• Misjudgement concerning the “residual risk”<br />
Preventive planning: principles <strong>and</strong> function<br />
“Prevention by planning” today is qualified as<br />
the most effective measure in natural <strong>hazard</strong><br />
management. Planning in relation to natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> risks can also unfold active as<br />
passive protection effects. Planning procedures<br />
concerning natural <strong>hazard</strong>s are not limited to the<br />
cartographic outline of endangered areas (areas<br />
at risk), but also provide the passivity to reduce<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s/risk by keeping endangered areas free<br />
from buildings or limiting the use of these zones<br />
(e.g. inundation areas). Thus preventive planning<br />
is the basis <strong>for</strong> the protection strategy “prevention<br />
by area”. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU, 2009 [14.])<br />
In addition, the cartographic depiction of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zones provides the essential in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(process intensity, magnitude of impact <strong>for</strong>ces)<br />
<strong>for</strong> the technical protection of existing buildings.<br />
Also the suitability of planned building sites<br />
concerning the risk by natural <strong>hazard</strong>s can be<br />
efficiently judged on the basis of <strong>hazard</strong> maps.<br />
In development planning, the localization of new<br />
settlements can be steered away from impending<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s. (BUWAL/BRP/BWW, 1997 [6.])<br />
In principle, in the <strong>Alpine</strong> environment<br />
the usability of l<strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong> building purposes is<br />
limited according to the expansion of <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
In mountainous regions, the total avoidance<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> zones <strong>for</strong> spatial development is not<br />
possible. Consequently, preventive planning<br />
defines limits (border lines) <strong>for</strong> areas that are<br />
appropriate <strong>for</strong> building. Within these limits,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps provide bases <strong>for</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong><br />
regulations <strong>for</strong> a <strong>hazard</strong>-adapted construction<br />
practice.<br />
Logically, the main emphasis of preventive<br />
planning lies in the sector of <strong>hazard</strong>s spatially<br />
“delimited” in action, such as floods, avalanches,<br />
mass movements. For natural <strong>hazard</strong>s that do not<br />
allow an “exact” delimitation (e.g. earthquake,<br />
storm, <strong>for</strong>est fire, snow load), preventive planning<br />
is limited to rough-scale maps showing a general<br />
gradation of risks. (RUDOLF-MIKLAU, 2009 [14.])<br />
The environmental planning is of major<br />
importance <strong>for</strong> the application of <strong>hazard</strong> maps.<br />
Consequently, preventive planning can be<br />
understood as a part of development planning.<br />
In order to regulate the use <strong>and</strong> development of<br />
endangered areas, the intervention of the state<br />
is essential. The primary goal of development<br />
planning concerning natural <strong>hazard</strong>s is to keep<br />
the endangered areas free from buildings (passive<br />
protection function). The active protection function<br />
of preventive planning lies in the reservation<br />
(provision) of areas <strong>for</strong> the spreading of <strong>hazard</strong>ous<br />
processes (e.g. inundation areas) or in the provision<br />
of st<strong>and</strong>ards (limits) <strong>for</strong> the use of endangered areas<br />
in order to reduce the risk potential.<br />
Mapping <strong>hazard</strong>s in <strong>Alpine</strong> environment<br />
The cartographic outline of endangered areas<br />
according to KIENHOLZ (2005) [10.] includes the<br />
elaboration of scientific <strong>and</strong> technical bases <strong>and</strong><br />
the depiction in <strong>hazard</strong> (indication) maps. In a<br />
second step, the geographic in<strong>for</strong>mation provided<br />
on triggering disposition <strong>and</strong> impact intensity of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>ous processes is used <strong>for</strong> the provision<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> zone maps <strong>and</strong> their implementation<br />
in the process of development planning. As a<br />
rule, <strong>hazard</strong> maps have no legal liability but are<br />
defined as “spatial expert opinions with prognosis<br />
character”, while the <strong>hazard</strong> zones become<br />
legally binding only by incorporating them into<br />
development planning documents (l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
maps). Thus legal liability of <strong>hazard</strong> zones may<br />
arise on the local level depending on the national<br />
legal framework.<br />
Consequently, it is essential to adapt the<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping to the requirements<br />
<strong>and</strong> goal of development planning on the regional<br />
<strong>and</strong> local level. In the <strong>Alpine</strong> countries in general<br />
the following categories of maps <strong>for</strong> the outline of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> risks can be distinguished:<br />
• Process maps (susceptibility, intensity)<br />
• Hazard (indication) maps<br />
• Hazard zone maps<br />
• Risk maps<br />
The following definitions are valid only with<br />
restrictions since terminology of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping<br />
substantially differs between countries <strong>and</strong><br />
scientific branches.<br />
A <strong>hazard</strong> (indication) map roughly<br />
indicates in which areas natural <strong>hazard</strong> have to be<br />
taken into account in l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> development<br />
activities. The character of the map is only<br />
demonstrative, while no concrete in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about the magnitude of the danger is provided.<br />
In many countries <strong>hazard</strong> zone maps are not<br />
available, leaving <strong>hazard</strong> indication maps as the<br />
only source of spatial in<strong>for</strong>mation.<br />
Process maps show <strong>hazard</strong>s by the<br />
spatial distribution of physical parameters<br />
(criteria) describing the triggering, displacement<br />
<strong>and</strong> impact processes. These maps are most often<br />
the result of numerical or empirical modeling. In<br />
some countries, process maps are trans<strong>for</strong>med<br />
into intensity maps showing the process criteria<br />
graded according to the levels of impact intensity<br />
(e.g. Switzerl<strong>and</strong>: frequency-intensity-matrix;<br />
LOAT, 2005 [11.]). Susceptibility is defined as the<br />
extent to which an area suffers from the risk of<br />
emergence of a <strong>hazard</strong>ous process if exposed to a<br />
triggering factor, without regard to the likelihood<br />
of exposure. Analogously, susceptibility maps<br />
show the disposition of an area <strong>for</strong> these events,<br />
but does not provide in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
frequency <strong>and</strong> expected intensity.<br />
Hazard zone maps show the impact of<br />
processes according to its magnitude (intensity,<br />
frequency) on the scale of the local cadastre<br />
(1.2000 – 1.5000). Consequently, these
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Fig. 4: Hazard indication map <strong>for</strong> mass movements (Bavaria,<br />
Germany).<br />
Abb. 4: Gefahrenhinweiskarte für <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen<br />
(Bayern, Deutschl<strong>and</strong>).<br />
maps provide specific in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
usability of certain plots <strong>for</strong> building or other<br />
development purposes. Hazard zone maps are<br />
regularly produced <strong>for</strong> the <strong>hazard</strong> types floods,<br />
avalanches <strong>and</strong> debris flow, <strong>and</strong> only in few<br />
countries (Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, France, <strong>and</strong> Italy) <strong>for</strong><br />
mass movements as well. In most countries,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zone maps are regulated by legal <strong>and</strong><br />
technical st<strong>and</strong>ards concerning their content,<br />
<strong>for</strong>mal requirements, approval procedure <strong>and</strong><br />
implementation in the development planning.<br />
Some countries have also defined a specific design<br />
Fig. 5: Hazard map <strong>for</strong> falls (rock fall) (Switzerl<strong>and</strong>).<br />
Abb. 5: Gefahrenzonenplan Felssturz (Steinschlag) (Schweiz).<br />
Fig. 6: Hazard zone map <strong>for</strong> torrents (including indication of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide areas) (Austria).<br />
Abb. 5: Gefahrenzonenplan Wildbäche (einschließlich des<br />
Hinweises von Rutschgebieten) (Österreich).<br />
event (period of recurrence) <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of<br />
the relevant <strong>hazard</strong>s. (HÜBL ET AL., 2007 [9.])<br />
The elaboration of risk maps is based on the<br />
depiction of objects at risk (risk potentials) within<br />
endangered areas. In principle there are two types<br />
of risk maps available (BORTER ET AL., 1999 [4.]):<br />
• Risk maps only showing risk potential<br />
without assessing (value) them.<br />
• Risk maps based on a graded, qualitative<br />
or quantitative <strong>assessment</strong> of risks (levels<br />
of risk; e.g. low – medium - high). These<br />
maps are elaborated by combining the<br />
impact intensity with the damage potential<br />
(value), the vulnerability <strong>and</strong> the exposition<br />
of objects/persons in the endangered area.<br />
Closing remarks<br />
Hazard (risk) <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping count<br />
among the most important tasks (measures) in<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong> management. The maps provide<br />
the key in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> most of the other mitigation<br />
measures in order to reduce risk to an acceptable<br />
level. GIS technology provides a powerful tool to<br />
combine spatial in<strong>for</strong>mation on natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
with other cartographic in<strong>for</strong>mation concerning<br />
human activities <strong>and</strong> development actions.<br />
Overlaying this in<strong>for</strong>mation makes feasible a<br />
comprehensive <strong>assessment</strong> of risks <strong>for</strong> human<br />
health, economic acidities, environment <strong>and</strong><br />
cultural heritage.<br />
As shown in this article, the methods<br />
<strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s still suffer<br />
from major short-comings <strong>and</strong> significant sources<br />
of inaccuracy. In addition, a comprehensive<br />
underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the triggering <strong>and</strong> displacement<br />
processes of <strong>Alpine</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong>s is still<br />
missing due to the limited availability of “direct”<br />
measurements <strong>and</strong> observation.<br />
Although <strong>hazard</strong> maps have gained a<br />
key role in the process of preventive planning,<br />
the in<strong>for</strong>mation provided by these maps should<br />
still be treated with care <strong>and</strong> only be interpreted<br />
by experts. This reservation especially holds true<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> maps devoted to mass movements.<br />
As the st<strong>and</strong>ards of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping in this field<br />
are still under development, preventive planning<br />
concerning rock fall <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides (unlike flood<br />
<strong>and</strong> avalanche <strong>hazard</strong>s) is still “in situ nascendi”.<br />
This delay justifies the strong ef<strong>for</strong>ts within the<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> space to establish <strong>and</strong> harmonize general<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s caused by mass movements.<br />
Anschrift des Verfassers / Author’s address:<br />
DI Dr. Florian Rudolf-Miklau<br />
Bundesministerium für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft,<br />
Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft, Abteilung IV/5,<br />
Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung<br />
Federal Ministry <strong>for</strong> Agriculture, Forestry,<br />
Enviroment <strong>and</strong> Water Management, Department<br />
IV/5, Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control<br />
1030 Wien, Marxergasse 2<br />
Tel.: (+43 1) 71 100 - 7333<br />
FAX: (+43 1) 71 100- 7399<br />
Mail: florian.rudolf-miklau@lebensministerium.at<br />
Homepage: http://www.lebensministerium.at/<strong>for</strong>st<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
[1.] AULITZKY H. (1992):<br />
Die Sprache der "Stummen Zeugen". Tagungsb<strong>and</strong> der Internationalen<br />
Konferenz Interpraevent 1992, S. 139-174.<br />
[2.] BERGMEISTER K., SUDA J., HÜBL J., RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. (2009):<br />
Schutzbauwerke der Wildbachverbauung. Verlag Ernst und Sohn Berlin<br />
(Wiley VCH).<br />
[3.] BOLLSCHWEILER M., STOFFEL M., RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. (2011):<br />
Tracking torrential processes on fans <strong>and</strong> cones. Springer Dortrecht (in<br />
preparation).<br />
[4.] BORTER P. (1999):<br />
Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren. Bern: Bundesamt für<br />
Umwelt, Wald und L<strong>and</strong>schaft BUWAL. Umwelt-Materialien 107/I+II.<br />
[5.] BRÜNDL M., ROMANG H., HOLTHAUSEN N., MERZ H., BISCHOF<br />
N. (2009):<br />
Risikokonzept für Naturgefahren – Leitfaden; Teil A: Allgemeine<br />
Darstellung des Risikokonzepts. Bern: Nationale Platt<strong>for</strong>m Naturgefahren<br />
PLANAT (vorläufige Fassung).<br />
[6.] BUNDESAMT FÜR UMWELT, WALD UND LANDSCHAFT<br />
BUWAL, BUNDESAMT FÜR RAUMPLANUNG BRP, BUNDESAMT FÜR<br />
WASSERWIRTSCHAFT BWW (1997):<br />
Berücksichtigung von Hochwassergefahren bei der raumwirksamen<br />
Tätigkeit, Biel.<br />
[7.] GEBÄUDEVERSICHERUNG GRAUBÜNDEN (2004):<br />
Vorschriften für bauliche Maßnahmen an Bauten in der blauen Lawinenzone.<br />
[8.] HÜBL J. (2010):<br />
Hochwässer in Wildbacheinzugsgebieten. Wiener Mitteilungen (in press).<br />
[9.] HÜBL J., FUCHS S., AGNER P. (2007):<br />
Optimierung der Gefahrenzonenplanung. Weiterentwicklung der<br />
Methoden der Gefahrenzonenplanung. IAN-Report 90. Wien: Universität<br />
für Bodenkultur (unveröffentlicht).<br />
[10.] KIENHOLZ H. (2005):<br />
Gefahrenzonenplanung im Alpenraum – Ansprüche und Grenzen, Imst:<br />
Imst: Wildbach- und Lawinenverbau (Zeitschrift für Wildbach-, Erosionsund<br />
Steinschlagschutz), Nr. 152, 135-151.<br />
[11.] LOAT R. (2005):<br />
Die Gefahrenzonenplanung in der Schweiz. Imst: Wildbach- und<br />
Lawinenverbau (Zeitschrift für Wildbach-, Erosions- und Steinschlagschutz),<br />
Nr. 152, 77-92.<br />
[12.] MAZZORANA B., FUCHS S., HÜBL J. (2009):<br />
Improving risk <strong>assessment</strong> by defining consistent <strong>and</strong> reliable system<br />
scenarios, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 145–159.<br />
[13.] ONR 24800:<br />
2008, Schutzbauwerke der Wildbachverbauung – Begriffe und ihre<br />
Definition sowie Klassifizierung. Austrian St<strong>and</strong>ards Institute, Vienna.<br />
[14.] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. (2009):<br />
Naturgefahren-Management in Österreich. Verlag Lexis-Nexis Orac .<br />
[15.] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F., SEREINIG N. (2009):<br />
Festlegung des Bemessungshochwassers: Prozessorientierte<br />
Harmonisierung für Flüsse und Wildbäche, ÖWAW 7-8: 29 – 32.<br />
[16.] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F., SAUERMOSER S. (Hrsg.) (2011):<br />
Technischer Lawinenschutz. Verlag Ernst und Sohn/Wiley Berlin (in<br />
preparation).<br />
[17.] SCHROTT L., GLADE T. (2008):<br />
Frequenz und Magnitude natürlicher Prozesse; in Flegentreff, Glade (Eds.):<br />
Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag<br />
Springer: 134 – 150.<br />
[18.] SUDA J., RUDOLF-MIKLAU F., HÜBL J., KANONIER A. (Hrsg.) (2011):<br />
Gebäudeschutz vor Naturgefahren. Verlag Spring Wien (in preparation).<br />
[19.] WOLMAN M. G., MILLER J. P. (1960):<br />
Magnitude <strong>and</strong> frequency of <strong>for</strong>ces on geomorphic processes. Journal of<br />
Geology 68 (1): 54 – 74.
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Seite 25<br />
RICHARD BÄK, HUGO RAETZO, KARL MAYER,<br />
ANDREAS VON POSCHINGER, GERLINDE POSCH-TRÖZMÜLLER<br />
Mapping of Geological Hazards: Methods, St<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
<strong>and</strong> Procedures (State of Development) - Overview<br />
Geologische Gefahrenkartierung: Methoden, St<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
und Verfahren (derzeitiger Status) – ein Überblick<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Die geologische Gefahrenkartierung ist in Europa trotz unterschiedlicher Methoden eine<br />
anerkannte Notwendigkeit für die Prävention. Die wissenschaftliche Charakterisierung der<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen basiert oft auf ähnlichen Methoden und ist deshalb eher vergleichbar.<br />
Hingegen ist die Umsetzung in die Raumplanung und in das Risikomanagement auf europäischer<br />
Ebene sehr unterschiedlich. Der Grund liegt primär in unterschiedlichen Gesetzen,<br />
Verordnungen und Verantwortlichkeiten, bzw. in sozio-ökonomischen Eigenheiten<br />
der Länder. Während in Italien und in der Schweiz technische Richtlinien bzw. gesetzliche<br />
Regelungen zur Erstellung von Gefahrenkarten bestehen, gibt es in Österreich nur für<br />
Hochwasser bzw. Lawinen Regelungen zur Ausweisung von Gefahrenzonen. In Deutschl<strong>and</strong><br />
wurde eine Empfehlung für die Erstellung von Gefahrenhinweiskarten publiziert. Aufgrund<br />
fehlender Regelungen in den alpinen Staaten Europas werden Ereigniskarten, Indexkarten,<br />
Gefahrenhinweiskarten und Gefahrenkarten als Grundlagen für die Gefahrenbeurteilung in<br />
verschiedenen Maßstäben mit unterschiedlichem Inhalt erarbeitet. Dies und unterschiedliche<br />
Definitionen erschweren den Vergleich. Ein multilinguales Glossar, die Einrichtung<br />
von Ereigniskatastern bei der Verwaltung und die Festlegung von Mindestan<strong>for</strong>derungen zur<br />
Erstellung von Grundlagen und Gefahrenkarten (An<strong>for</strong>derungen hinsichtlich Eingangsdaten<br />
und Zweck) sollten daher ein primäres Ziel sein. Im Projekt AdaptAlp (Interreg IV B, <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
Space) arbeiten die Alpenländer an gemeinsamen Grundsätzen.<br />
Summary:<br />
In spite of different methods used, geological <strong>hazard</strong> mapping is accepted as a tool <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>hazard</strong> prevention in Europe. Scientific characterization of mass movements is based on<br />
similar methods with mostly comparable results. However, the implementation in spatial<br />
planning <strong>and</strong> risk management differs considerably due to different regional legal acts,<br />
ordinances, responsibilities <strong>and</strong> pecularities. Whereas in Italy <strong>and</strong> Switzerl<strong>and</strong> there are<br />
technical guidelines <strong>and</strong> legal acts regarding l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall, in Austria only <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping concerning floods <strong>and</strong> avalanches is regulated. In Germany a recommendation<br />
on how to create a susceptibility map was published. Because of a lack of regulations in<br />
European <strong>Alpine</strong> states’ inventory maps, susceptibility <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> maps are created in<br />
different scales with different contents <strong>and</strong> quality. This, as well as different defintions of<br />
terms such as susceptibility, danger <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong>, makes comparison of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
products difficult. Consequently a multilingual glossary, l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories at regional<br />
authorities <strong>and</strong> minimal requirements as to how to create <strong>hazard</strong> maps (requirements<br />
concerning input data <strong>and</strong> purpose of <strong>assessment</strong>) are necessary. In the AdaptAlp project<br />
(Interreg IV B, <strong>Alpine</strong> Space) the <strong>Alpine</strong> regions elaborate the common principles.<br />
Introduction<br />
In <strong>Alpine</strong> regions, slopes of different<br />
morphological <strong>and</strong> geological conditions are<br />
prone to l<strong>and</strong>slides. Taking into consideration<br />
one of the geological principles <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> – the past is the key to the<br />
future – future slope failures will probably occur<br />
in areas with similar geological, morphological<br />
<strong>and</strong> hydrological situations that have led to past<br />
failures. Some triggering mechanisms happen<br />
sporadically <strong>and</strong> are not readily obvious. Because<br />
of the lack of memories of past l<strong>and</strong>slide events,<br />
the susceptibility to mass movements is not<br />
considered accurate in l<strong>and</strong> use. But the effects<br />
of mass movements (damages) necessitate new<br />
strategies on how to manage the future potential<br />
of natural (geological) <strong>hazard</strong>s in alpine regions.<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation about l<strong>and</strong>slides in alpine<br />
countries varies in its quality <strong>and</strong> quantity: In<br />
some regions, detailed l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories exist<br />
<strong>and</strong> are the basis <strong>for</strong> susceptibility <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong>. Different approaches to <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping are in practice. This fact <strong>and</strong> dissimilar<br />
meanings <strong>for</strong> terms like susceptibility, danger<br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> make a comparison of the regional<br />
approaches difficult. Using various input data also<br />
h<strong>and</strong>icaps the comparison of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
Within the INTERREG IV B project<br />
“Adaptation to Climate Change in the <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
Space “ (acronym AdaptAlp), work package<br />
5.1 Hazard Mapping - Geological Hazards is<br />
focusing on the transnational harmonization of<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards (minimal requirements in the field of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping) by exchanging<br />
experiences in the partner regions. This issue<br />
provides an overview of methods, st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong><br />
procedures without a pretense of completeness.<br />
The definitions of terms used regarding
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l<strong>and</strong>slides sometimes differ contradictorily in<br />
literature <strong>and</strong> in practice. For this reason the<br />
second goal of the work package 5.1 named<br />
above is the elaboration of a multilingual glossary.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories are the basis <strong>for</strong> all scientific<br />
<strong>and</strong> planning activities. They contain the basic<br />
data of natural <strong>hazard</strong> processes <strong>and</strong> should<br />
mainly include the facts. There<strong>for</strong>e all partner<br />
countries in the AdaptAlp Interreg project are<br />
working on l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories.<br />
[11] Guzzetti 2005 wrote about l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventories: “Despite the ease with which they<br />
are prepared <strong>and</strong> their immediateness, l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventories are not yet very common. Inventory<br />
maps are available <strong>for</strong> only a few countries<br />
<strong>and</strong> mostly <strong>for</strong> limited areas. This is surprising<br />
because inventory maps provide fundamental<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation on the location <strong>and</strong> size of l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
that is necessary in the <strong>assessment</strong> of slope<br />
stability at any scale, <strong>and</strong> in any physiographical<br />
environment.” Nevertheless, all of the countries<br />
considered <strong>for</strong> the literature survey have l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventories <strong>and</strong> maps, even if contents, scales <strong>and</strong><br />
the state of completeness vary.<br />
In order to predict l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong><br />
in an area, the morphological, geological, <strong>and</strong><br />
hydrological conditions <strong>and</strong> processes have to be<br />
identified. Their influence on the stability of the<br />
slopes has to be estimated.<br />
Different methods of data acquirement<br />
are used to establish databases to assess <strong>hazard</strong>s:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories as an important tool <strong>for</strong> the<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> of the susceptibility of slopes to mass<br />
movements are created nowadays more <strong>and</strong> more<br />
using digital technology. A general indication of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility can be obtained based on<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories, geological, soil <strong>and</strong> geomor-<br />
phological maps. Using digital DTM data in a GIS<br />
allows the production of hillshades with several<br />
geometries to detect typical l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>for</strong>ms.<br />
Modern methods <strong>for</strong> modelling processes are designed<br />
<strong>for</strong> the GIS environment. Slope stability <strong>and</strong><br />
rock fall trajectories can be computed over large<br />
areas to get indications of the <strong>hazard</strong>s. Analysis<br />
of aerial photographs is also a classical <strong>and</strong><br />
valuable technique to identify l<strong>and</strong>slide features.<br />
More subtle signs of slope movement cannot be<br />
identified on the maps mentioned above. Field<br />
observation by experts is necessary <strong>for</strong> accurate<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>. The requirements <strong>for</strong> acquired data<br />
are raised by the main goal: The accurateness <strong>and</strong><br />
detail of input data <strong>and</strong> scale depends on the aim<br />
of the product – susceptibility map, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
or risk analyses.<br />
For <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>, in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about possible scenarios is needed. For this<br />
reason it is important that l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories<br />
are induced to sustain l<strong>and</strong>slide knowledge over<br />
time. In most regions of the Alps, inventories have<br />
been established by authorities <strong>and</strong> are to some<br />
extent available to the public.<br />
Tab.1 gives in<strong>for</strong>mation about what<br />
kind of data is stored in different l<strong>and</strong>slide event<br />
inventories, <strong>and</strong> what questions are asked on the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide reporting <strong>for</strong>m. For the comparison,<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation from the countries Austria (Geological<br />
survey of Austria, of Lower Austria, of Carinthia,<br />
project MASSMOVE, project DIS-ALP), Germany,<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Slovenia, Italy, France, Slovakia, Australia<br />
<strong>and</strong> the USA (Oregon, Washington, Utah)<br />
was taken into account.<br />
The first section of table 1 shows<br />
if inventories exist. The second section<br />
deals with the basic data, mainly with the<br />
5W-questions: What happened where, when <strong>and</strong><br />
why, <strong>and</strong> who reported it (or made the database<br />
entry). The l<strong>and</strong>slide conditions in the third section<br />
give evidence, if e.g. in<strong>for</strong>mation on the activity,<br />
geometry <strong>and</strong> slope position of a l<strong>and</strong>slide is<br />
recorded. Recorded geological in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(fourth section) is sometimes specified in detail,<br />
sometimes only the in<strong>for</strong>mation is given that<br />
geological in<strong>for</strong>mation is being stored.<br />
In many cases additional in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
such as data on vegetation (l<strong>and</strong> cover),<br />
hydrogeological or hydrological conditions, as<br />
well as specific data such as the shadow angle are<br />
stored in the databases.<br />
Most inventories provide in<strong>for</strong>mation on<br />
the causes or triggers of l<strong>and</strong>slides. In some cases<br />
the damages due to l<strong>and</strong>slides are listed in the<br />
inventory, sometimes even the monetary value of<br />
the damage <strong>and</strong> the costs of remediation measures.<br />
Most inventory <strong>for</strong>ms also provide in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about how the listed data was gathered (e.g. field<br />
survey), some provide a rating about the reliability<br />
of the degree of precision of the in<strong>for</strong>mation. In<br />
most databases additional reports, documentation<br />
<strong>and</strong> bibliography are included or mentioned.<br />
In Austria the Geological survey of<br />
Austria, in cooperation with the Geological Survey<br />
of Carinthia, has created not just one “inventory<br />
map” but a “level of in<strong>for</strong>mation” (Fig. 1):<br />
Process index maps (map of phenomena<br />
“Prozesshinweiskarte”, “Karte der Phänomene”)<br />
can have different scales (1:50,000 <strong>and</strong> bigger)<br />
<strong>and</strong> can be of varying quality; it contains<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about process areas <strong>and</strong> phenomena<br />
of mass movements that have already happened.<br />
The event inventory (“Ereigniskataster”) records<br />
only those processes <strong>for</strong> which an event date is<br />
known (5W-questions); it is independent of a<br />
scale. In Carinthia, a digital l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory<br />
was created with historical events of the last<br />
50 years ([7] Bäk et al. 2005). The inventory<br />
map/event map (“Ereigniskarte”) contains only<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about processes <strong>for</strong> which an event<br />
date is known. The thematic inventory map<br />
contains only in<strong>for</strong>mation related to a type of<br />
process, categorized according to the quality of<br />
the data.<br />
In Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, the generation of a “map<br />
of phenomena” is m<strong>and</strong>atory ([30] Raetzo 2002).<br />
As with the Austrian “map of phenomena”, it<br />
shows the geologic-geomorphologic features. An<br />
extensive manual with a digital GIS-legend was<br />
published on a DVD by BWG ([8]BWG 2002,<br />
[14] Kienholz & Krummenacher 1995).<br />
The scale used depends on the purpose<br />
the map is used <strong>for</strong>, ranging from 1:2,000 (or<br />
even more) <strong>for</strong> a detailed study to 1:50,000 as<br />
an indicative map ([32] Raetzo & Loup 2009).<br />
On the other h<strong>and</strong>, the Federal Office <strong>for</strong> the<br />
Environment (FOEN) manages a database with<br />
all the events where damages were recorded. This<br />
national database is called “StorMe” <strong>and</strong> contains<br />
data on every natural <strong>hazard</strong> process: l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
debris flows, snow avalanches <strong>and</strong> floods.<br />
In Italy, a country with a particularly high<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide risk owing to its l<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>m configuration<br />
<strong>and</strong> its lithological <strong>and</strong> structural characteristics,<br />
the need <strong>for</strong> a complete <strong>and</strong> homogeneous<br />
overview of the distribution of l<strong>and</strong>slides was<br />
recognized after the disastrous event at Sarno. The<br />
aim of the IFFI Project (Inventario dei Fenomeni<br />
Franosi in Italia – “Italian L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory”)<br />
implemented by ISPRA (<strong>for</strong>merly: APAT, the<br />
Italian Environment Protection <strong>and</strong> Technical<br />
Services Agency) <strong>and</strong> by the regions <strong>and</strong> selfgoverning<br />
provinces was to identify <strong>and</strong> map<br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slides in accordance with st<strong>and</strong>ardized<br />
<strong>and</strong> shared methods. The work method included<br />
the collection of historical <strong>and</strong> archive data,<br />
aerial photo interpretation, field surveys, <strong>and</strong><br />
detailed mapping. A “L<strong>and</strong>slide Data Sheet” was<br />
prepared <strong>for</strong> collecting the l<strong>and</strong>slide in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
subdivided into three levels of progressively
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increasing detail (from: [13] ISPRA, 2008):<br />
• First level: contains the basic in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(location, type of movement, state of<br />
activity) <strong>and</strong> is m<strong>and</strong>atory <strong>for</strong> every<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide.<br />
• Second level: contains the geometrical,<br />
geological, <strong>and</strong> lithological parameters,<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use, causes <strong>and</strong> activation date.<br />
• Third level: provides detailed in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
on the damage, investigations <strong>and</strong> remedial<br />
measures.<br />
A scale of 1:10,000 is used <strong>for</strong> surveying <strong>and</strong><br />
mapping the l<strong>and</strong>slides throughout most of Italy,<br />
only in high mountainous areas or in lower<br />
populated areas is a scale of 1:25,000 used. As<br />
with many regions, the region of South Tyrol<br />
(Autonome Provinz Bozen Südtirol, [27] Nössing<br />
2009) also has a l<strong>and</strong>slide database that resulted<br />
from the IFFI Project. The type of movement, the<br />
litho-logical unit, the volume of the moving masses,<br />
the internal cause <strong>and</strong> the external trigger, as well<br />
as the induced damage are noted <strong>for</strong> each event.<br />
The extensive l<strong>and</strong>slide database,<br />
GEORISK of Bavaria, is an essential step to<br />
creating susceptibility maps. Until now 2,800<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides have been documented in the<br />
database, with in<strong>for</strong>mation about the type of<br />
movement, the extension, age <strong>and</strong> status of the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides. The following l<strong>and</strong>slide processes are<br />
recorded: flow ("Hangkriechen", "Schuttströme"),<br />
slide ("Rutschungen", "Hanganbrüche"), fall/rock<br />
fall ("Steinschläge", "Felsstürze", "Bergstürze"),<br />
Karst, subsidence ("Erdfälle", "Dolinen", "Senken",<br />
"Schwinden",..). Based on the inventory, maps<br />
were created, showing existing l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong><br />
their activity (“Karten der Aktivitätsbereiche”).<br />
The Slovenian l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory map<br />
is shown as a small inlet on the susceptibility<br />
map of Slovenia at a scale of 1:250,000. Personal<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation from M. Komac (Geo ZS) revealed<br />
that, since the sources <strong>for</strong> the inventory map of<br />
Slovenia are quite different from each other, the<br />
scales vary but l<strong>and</strong>slides were always mapped at<br />
a quite detailed scale.<br />
In France a database <strong>for</strong> mass movements<br />
is accessible on the internet. The processes taken<br />
into account are l<strong>and</strong>slides, rock fall, debris flows,<br />
subsidence <strong>and</strong> bank erosion. For each mass<br />
movement, the following detailed in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
can be retrieved: type of movement, detailed<br />
geographical data, in<strong>for</strong>mation about the quality,<br />
the precision <strong>and</strong> the origin of the data, detailed<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about the mass movement (size,<br />
activity), the damage caused, the causes <strong>for</strong> the<br />
movement <strong>and</strong> geological in<strong>for</strong>mation as well as<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about the survey of the phenomenon.<br />
A prototype l<strong>and</strong>slide database has<br />
been established by Geoscience Australia in<br />
collaboration with the University of Wollongong<br />
<strong>and</strong> Mineral Resources Tasmania, displaying the<br />
location of the l<strong>and</strong>slides on a map <strong>and</strong> providing<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation regarding the type of l<strong>and</strong>slide, date<br />
of occurrence (if known), a brief summary of the<br />
event, its cause <strong>and</strong> damage.<br />
In Engl<strong>and</strong> after the Aberfan disaster the<br />
UK government funded a number of research<br />
projects to look at the UK’s geo<strong>hazard</strong>s ([33]<br />
Reeves 2010). Now in the UK the BGS investigates<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong>s by looking at primary geo<strong>hazard</strong>s such<br />
as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions <strong>and</strong> secondary<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong>s such as l<strong>and</strong>slides, swelling/shrinking<br />
etc. Topics of consideration are the cause of<br />
events, return periods determined by analysis of<br />
past events, affected regions, influence of regional<br />
geology. An inventory is the first step in building an<br />
underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the occurrence of geo<strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
Currently BGS maintains two main shallow<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong> databases: the National L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong><br />
the Karst Database. These inventories provide<br />
the basis <strong>for</strong> analysing the spatial distribution<br />
of the geo<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> their causal factors. This<br />
underst<strong>and</strong>ing can be used to assess susceptibility.<br />
In the USA the L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory<br />
Steering Committee, composed of members of<br />
USGS <strong>and</strong> State Geological Surveys <strong>and</strong> other<br />
state agencies, are working on the L<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
Inventory Pilot Project. The purpose of this project<br />
is to provide a framework <strong>and</strong> tools <strong>for</strong> displaying<br />
<strong>and</strong> analyzing l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory data collected<br />
in a spatially aware digital <strong>for</strong>mat from individual<br />
states. To get in<strong>for</strong>mation about further l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
the Oregon Department of Geology <strong>and</strong> Mineral<br />
Industries, among others, has prepared an<br />
inventory <strong>for</strong>m. Besides in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
exact location (coordinates) of a l<strong>and</strong>slide, the<br />
following specifications should be listed: date of<br />
slide, activity, estimated dimension (length, width,<br />
depth, volume, estimated dimensions from: aerial<br />
photos, field evaluation), predominant type of<br />
material (rock, debris, earth, fill), predominant<br />
type of movement (fall/topple, flow, translational<br />
slide, rotational slide, spread), approximate<br />
original slope (e.g.: 30° +/- 5°, estimated from<br />
e.g. 1:24K USGS topo map), l<strong>and</strong> use where<br />
slide occurred (<strong>for</strong>ested area, harvested area,<br />
rural area, urban area, agriculture), cause of slide<br />
(road construction, road cut, road fill, earthquake,<br />
preexisting slide, steep natural slope, natural<br />
drainage, human built drainage, other), damage<br />
caused by slide <strong>and</strong> additional comments.<br />
In Cali<strong>for</strong>nia the l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory<br />
maps are available at a scale of 1:24,000.<br />
The inventory was prepared primarily by<br />
geomorphological analysis, interpretation of aerial<br />
photographs <strong>and</strong> also by field reconnaissance,<br />
interpretation of topographic map contours, <strong>and</strong><br />
review of geological <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide mapping.<br />
Also, each l<strong>and</strong>slide was classified according to<br />
its activity: active or historic, dormant-young,<br />
dormant-mature, dormant-old. The l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
material (rock, soil, earth, debris) <strong>and</strong> type of<br />
movement (slide, flow, fall, topple, spread) are<br />
also classified. Furthermore, each l<strong>and</strong>slide is<br />
classified according to a “confidence” (definite,<br />
probable, questionable) assigned by the geological<br />
interpreter. It can be regarded as a measure of<br />
likelihood that the l<strong>and</strong>slide actually exists.<br />
Susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> in <strong>Alpine</strong> regions<br />
A literature study regarding susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping ([29] Posch-Trözmüller 2010) shows<br />
the different approaches to <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> in<br />
alpine regions.<br />
For the <strong>assessment</strong> of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
(<strong>hazard</strong> maps) mainly heuristic methods are in<br />
practice. In this case scientific reports, geological<br />
<strong>and</strong> morphological mapping are the basis <strong>for</strong><br />
weighting methods. Statistical analysis (bivariante<br />
or multivariate) are used <strong>for</strong> the weighting. The<br />
weight of evidence method is based on a statistical<br />
Bayesian bivariate approach. Originally developed<br />
<strong>for</strong> ore exploration, this probabilistic method is<br />
now commonly used <strong>for</strong> the statistical <strong>assessment</strong><br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides. It is based on the assumption that<br />
future l<strong>and</strong>slides would be triggered or influenced<br />
by the same or similar controlling factors as<br />
previously registered l<strong>and</strong>slides ([15] Klingseisen<br />
& Leopold 2006, [16] Klingseisen et al. 2006).<br />
In Germany a recommendation on how<br />
to create a susceptibility map is given by the<br />
“Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s” team of engineering geologists<br />
of German federal governmental departments<br />
of geology ([37] SGD 2007). Basic minimal<br />
requirements <strong>for</strong> inventory records are defined,<br />
such as spatial positioning <strong>and</strong> technical data of<br />
mass movements. Digital modelling (rock fall,<br />
shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides) can be used to identify the<br />
susceptibility of areas to mass movements, verified<br />
by l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories or evaluation through
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field work. Indications of active/inactive l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
can be found by using registers, mapping <strong>and</strong>/or<br />
remote sensing (DTM) methods. Potential l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
areas (where l<strong>and</strong>slides have not yet taken place)<br />
are determined by empirical methods in account<br />
of geological <strong>and</strong> morphological situation <strong>and</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong> use. Alternatively areas prone to l<strong>and</strong>sliding<br />
can be derived semi-automatically by a cross-over<br />
between DTM <strong>and</strong> a geological entity. Regarding<br />
rock fall processes, source areas of rock fall are<br />
derived in a first step from l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories<br />
<strong>and</strong>/or remote sensing (DTM). Usually <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
areas with an inclination > 45° are potential rock<br />
fall escarpments. In the second step, the runout<br />
zone is depicted by empiric angle methods<br />
(shadow angle, geometric slope angle) or physical<br />
deterministic methods. The guidelines also include<br />
flow processes, subrosion, subsidence <strong>and</strong> uplift.<br />
For the whole Bavarian Alps (about<br />
4.300 km²) ([23] Mayer 2007), an “extended<br />
danger map” at a scale of 1:25,000 has already<br />
been presented or is being completed. That<br />
means that, in contrast to the susceptibility map<br />
(without in<strong>for</strong>mation on intensity <strong>and</strong> probability),<br />
it includes a qualitative statement about the<br />
probability through a predefined “design event”.<br />
The legend <strong>for</strong> the rock fall danger map discerns<br />
between “indication of danger”, yes or no, the<br />
legend <strong>for</strong> the danger map of superficial l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
discerns 3 entries (source area, accumulation<br />
zone, none), the deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides danger<br />
map also discerns 3 entries (indication, indication<br />
in extreme case, none).<br />
The Swiss indicative map (“Gefahrenhinweiskarte”)<br />
is generated at a scale of<br />
1:10,000 to 1:50,000. The legend gives only the<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation “indication of <strong>hazard</strong>” - yes or no,<br />
without specification of classes. It indicates the<br />
potential process areas of rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
<strong>and</strong> debris flows. It doesn’t include in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about intensity or probability. The creation of an<br />
indicative map is not obligatory in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>,<br />
since the law refers to the st<strong>and</strong>ardized <strong>hazard</strong><br />
map ([32] Raetzo & Loup 2009). Detailed<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation on <strong>hazard</strong> maps in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> is<br />
given by Raetzo & Loup in this issue [31].<br />
Because of the lack of a regulatory<br />
framework or technical norm concerning<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall in Austria - only the<br />
course of actions concerning floods, avalanches<br />
<strong>and</strong> debris flows are regulated by law (ordinance<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> zone mapping, [34] Rudolf-Miklau &<br />
Schmidt 2004) - the federal states all follow a<br />
different course of action.<br />
At the Geological Survey of Austria,<br />
a database-system <strong>for</strong> documenting mass<br />
movements in Austria (GEORIOS) containing<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about the different types of<br />
processes, geological, hydrological, geometric<br />
<strong>and</strong> geographical data, in<strong>for</strong>mation on studies or<br />
tests carried out as well as mitigation measures<br />
<strong>and</strong> the source of in<strong>for</strong>mation (archives, field<br />
work) is in use. Susceptibility maps in different<br />
scales <strong>and</strong> with different methods (heuristic<br />
approach, neural network analysis) have already<br />
been generated. Using the digital geological<br />
map (1:50,000), the inventory map, map of<br />
phenomena <strong>and</strong> a lithological map, susceptibility<br />
maps <strong>for</strong> Carinthia were generated in collaboration<br />
with the Geological Survey of Austria<br />
(GBA) <strong>and</strong> the Geological Survey of Carinthia at a<br />
scale of 1:200,000 ([17] Kociu et al., 2006). These<br />
are, of course, still lacking in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> recurrence period or probability<br />
of occurrence. For a small study area in Styria,<br />
the Geological Survey of Austria generated a<br />
susceptibility map at a scale of 1:50,000 using<br />
neural network analysis ([38] Tilch 2009).<br />
In Vorarlberg risk maps (susceptibility<br />
map, vulnerability map, risk map) were produced<br />
in the course of a university dissertation ([35]<br />
Ruff 2005). For modelling, he used bivariate<br />
statistics (l<strong>and</strong>slides) <strong>and</strong> cost analysis (rock falls),<br />
working with a 25x25m grid. The inventory map is<br />
included in the susceptibility map. Also, the local<br />
department of the Austrian Service <strong>for</strong> Torrent<br />
<strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control (WLV) creates “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps” within the “<strong>hazard</strong> zonation plan”. In<br />
Upper Austria, Lower Austria <strong>and</strong> Burgenl<strong>and</strong>,<br />
different approaches have been chosen to develop<br />
susceptibility maps (different scales, processes)<br />
derived from existing data sets <strong>and</strong> maps ([29]<br />
Posch-Trözmüller 2010): The main focus in<br />
Burgenl<strong>and</strong> is concentrated on shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
with an annual movement rate of 1-2cm. For<br />
the prediction of l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility based<br />
on morphological <strong>and</strong> geological factors, the<br />
method called Weights of Evidence was chosen<br />
([16] Klingseisen et al. 2006). In Lower Austria<br />
susceptibility maps have been created until now<br />
using a heuristic approach based on geological<br />
expertise, historical data <strong>and</strong> interpretation of DTM<br />
<strong>and</strong> aerial photos ([36] Schweigl & Hervas 2009).<br />
To provide the municipalities with assistance in<br />
spatial planning, l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps<br />
were generated <strong>for</strong> the main settled areas in Upper<br />
Austria (OÖ). The priority, which is a susceptibility<br />
class, was evaluated on the basis of the in-tensity<br />
<strong>and</strong> the probability of an event <strong>for</strong> each type of<br />
mass movement ([19] Kolmer 2009). As these<br />
maps include the intensity <strong>and</strong> the frequency of<br />
mass movements, they can be called “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps” by definition. Nevertheless it has to be<br />
taken into account that the method of generating<br />
these maps did not include either field work or<br />
remote sensing techniques. The method of <strong>assessment</strong><br />
is based solely on geological expertise.<br />
The national project of Italy, IFFI, also<br />
represents an important tool <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide risk<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>, l<strong>and</strong> use planning <strong>and</strong> mitigation<br />
measures. By using the in<strong>for</strong>mation contained in<br />
the database of the IFFI Project <strong>and</strong> the Corine<br />
L<strong>and</strong> Cover Project 2000, it was possible to carry<br />
out an initial evaluation of the “level of attention”<br />
on a municipal basis. The level of attention was<br />
<strong>for</strong> example rated “very high”, when the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
points, polygons <strong>and</strong> lines intersected with urban,<br />
industrial or commercial areas ([13] ISPRA 2008).<br />
The regions in Italy also have programs<br />
in cooperation with the IFFI Project (IFFI started<br />
as a national project <strong>and</strong> is continued by the<br />
separate regions), as well as with the PAI Project.<br />
For example, the region of Friuli Venezia Giulia<br />
has a l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory that originated within<br />
these two studies, collecting data from several<br />
different regional offices (in particular: Protezione<br />
Civile della Regione <strong>and</strong> the Direzione Centrale<br />
Risorse Agricole, Naturali, Forestali e Montagna)<br />
as well as from other public subjects that work<br />
on the territory. It homogenizes the in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
according to national st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> surveys new<br />
data. The program is used <strong>for</strong> the evaluation of the<br />
hydrogeological <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk <strong>and</strong> also to give a<br />
clear <strong>and</strong> updated view of the interventions made<br />
in the region to preserve vulnerable areas. The<br />
data is recorded in an official GIS structure called<br />
Sitgeo (Geological Service In<strong>for</strong>mation System).<br />
The main focus lies on <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> at the<br />
scale of a slope.<br />
Slovenia generated a susceptibility map<br />
of the whole country at a scale of 1:250,000 using<br />
statistical analyses ([20] Komac & Ribicic 2008).<br />
In 2002, BGS (Engl<strong>and</strong>) developed a nationwide<br />
susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong> of deterministic<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong>s such as l<strong>and</strong>slides, skrink-swell,<br />
etc. called GeoSure ([33] Reeves 2010). It<br />
was developed from the 50K digital geology<br />
polygons (DiGMap50), published in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
expert judgement knowledge, national l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
database, national geotechnical in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
database <strong>and</strong> modified DTM. Probabilistic<br />
methods are used <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> management by<br />
primary geo<strong>hazard</strong>s, deterministic methods by<br />
secondary geo<strong>hazard</strong>s.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 32<br />
Seite 33<br />
A number of guidelines have been published in<br />
Australia by the Australian Geomechanics Society<br />
concerning mass movements <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide risk<br />
management, as well as slope management <strong>and</strong><br />
maintenance. These guidelines are tools that<br />
were made to be introduced into the legislative<br />
framework of Australian governments at national,<br />
state <strong>and</strong> local levels, <strong>and</strong> they are also useful <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong> use planning.<br />
Regional susceptibility mapping of<br />
areas prone to l<strong>and</strong>sliding is not yet commonly<br />
undertaken in Australia: Because of a lack of<br />
good inventory maps <strong>and</strong> validated inventory<br />
databases, l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> mapping is very<br />
limited. Determining temporal probability is often<br />
not possible because of the lack of historical<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation ([25] Middleman 2007). L<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
mapping is generally done on a site-specific scale<br />
<strong>and</strong> is per<strong>for</strong>med by geotechnical consultants <strong>for</strong><br />
the purpose of zoning, building infrastructure<br />
<strong>and</strong> applying <strong>for</strong> development approvals ([25]<br />
Middleman 2007). Mineral Resources Tasmania<br />
(MRT, Department of Infrastructure, Energy <strong>and</strong><br />
Resources, State Government of Tasmania) is<br />
the only state government agency in Australia<br />
to undertake several activities with respect<br />
to l<strong>and</strong>slides, including regional mapping,<br />
administration of declared l<strong>and</strong>slide areas <strong>and</strong><br />
monitoring of a small number of problematic<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides. Mazengarb ([24], 2005) describes in<br />
detail the methodology of creating the “Tasmanian<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> map series” that started with a<br />
pilot area coinciding with the Hobart municipality.<br />
The following basic in<strong>for</strong>mation was used to<br />
create the individual l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> maps<br />
(note: In the report the maps are called “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps”, but on the homepage, where the maps are<br />
accessible via the internet, the individual maps<br />
are called “susceptibility maps”, but, nonetheless,<br />
giving “<strong>hazard</strong> zones” in the legends.): geological<br />
mapping (1:25,000), geomorphological mapping<br />
<strong>and</strong> analysis (1:5,000), l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> engineering<br />
data compilation, construction of digital elevation<br />
models (10x10m).<br />
For example, a threshold slope value of<br />
42° was chosen <strong>for</strong> modelling rock fall source<br />
areas. It does not imply that rock fall will not<br />
occur on lower slopes, but it becomes steadily<br />
less likely with reduced slope angles. A simple<br />
modelling approach was developed <strong>for</strong> modelling<br />
the rock fall runout area using the direction of<br />
maximum downhill slope defined by an aspect<br />
raster <strong>and</strong> calculating with a travel angle of 30°.<br />
In southwestern Cali<strong>for</strong>nia, soil-slip<br />
susceptibility maps have been produced. These<br />
show the relative susceptibility of hill slopes to<br />
the initiation of rainfall triggered soil slip-debris<br />
flows. They do not attempt to show the extent<br />
of runout of the resultant debris flows. The<br />
susceptibility maps were created in an iterative<br />
process from two kinds of in<strong>for</strong>mation: locations<br />
of sites of past soil slips <strong>and</strong> aerial photographs<br />
taken during six rainy seasons that produced<br />
abundant soil slips. These were used as the basis<br />
<strong>for</strong> a soil slip-debris flow inventory. Also, digital<br />
elevation models (DTM) of the areas were used<br />
to analyze the spatial characteristics of soil slip<br />
locations. Slope <strong>and</strong> aspect values used in the<br />
susceptibility analysis were 10 metre DTM cells at<br />
a scale of 1:24,000. For convenience, the soil-slip<br />
susceptibility values are assembled on 1:100,000<br />
scale bases ([26] Morton et al. 2003).<br />
Comparison of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> methods<br />
Methods of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> used in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>,<br />
Italy (Friuli Venezia Giulia), Australia, France <strong>and</strong><br />
USA are considered in this section. First the Swiss<br />
<strong>and</strong> the Italian methods are compared, as these<br />
define intensity <strong>and</strong> probability parameters. The<br />
Australian method of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>, which<br />
is quite different from the first ones, as well as<br />
the method applied in the state of Washington<br />
(USA), is also looked into (Tab. 2). Tab. 3 gives<br />
an overview about <strong>hazard</strong> maps generated in the<br />
considered countries.<br />
Comparison of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> methods in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy)<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> maps in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> are compared<br />
especially to Friuli Venezia Giulia. More detailed<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation on the Swiss method is given by<br />
Raetzo & Loup in this issue [31]. The Swiss<br />
method ([30] Raetzo 2002) <strong>and</strong> the method used<br />
in Italy ([21] Kranitz & Bensi 2009) are based on<br />
an intensity-probability matrix. They differ from<br />
each other in determining the intensity <strong>and</strong> the<br />
probability of a l<strong>and</strong>slide event.<br />
In Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, 5 degrees of <strong>hazard</strong> are<br />
used. In Italy the <strong>hazard</strong> is rated in 4 classes (from<br />
very high [P4] to moderate [P1]).<br />
Concepts of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
In Switzerl<strong>and</strong> the method to establish the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
map was simplified as much as possible due to<br />
the objective of facilitating its integration into<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use (planning). In order to have simple construction<br />
regulations, only 5 degrees of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
were defined: high, medium, low, residual <strong>and</strong><br />
neglectable <strong>hazard</strong>. The degree of <strong>hazard</strong> is<br />
defined in a <strong>hazard</strong> matrix based on intensity <strong>and</strong><br />
probability criteria ([32] Raetzo & Loup 2009).<br />
For the planning of protection measures, more<br />
detailed investigations <strong>and</strong> calculations are done<br />
(e.g. all energy classes). In general the methods<br />
used are related to the product, scales <strong>and</strong> the risk<br />
in order to respect economic criteria. Applying<br />
this concept, low ef<strong>for</strong>ts were used <strong>for</strong> the swiss<br />
indicative map (level 1). Important ef<strong>for</strong>ts are taken<br />
when a <strong>hazard</strong> map is established or reviewed<br />
(level 2). Hazard maps are an accurate delineation<br />
of zones on scales from 1:2,000 to 1:10,000.<br />
Detailed analyses <strong>and</strong> engineering calculations<br />
are <strong>for</strong>eseen <strong>for</strong> the planning of countermeasures<br />
or <strong>for</strong> expertises (level 3). It is planned to apply<br />
this concept of increased ef<strong>for</strong>ts <strong>for</strong> geological<br />
investigations when the <strong>assessment</strong> takes place<br />
on the second or third level. These investigations<br />
include geologic mapping, geomorphologic<br />
analyses, monitoring, geophysics, numerical<br />
modelling <strong>and</strong> other methods.<br />
Assessment of the intensity<br />
(Switzerl<strong>and</strong>/ Friuli Venezia Giulia)<br />
Intensities are assessed through a classification<br />
that is represented in table 2.<br />
The <strong>assessment</strong> of intensities in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
is different <strong>for</strong> each process, also <strong>for</strong> floods<br />
<strong>and</strong> snow avalanches ([30] Raetzo 2002). For<br />
continuous l<strong>and</strong>slide processes, the only criterion<br />
is the intensity. For spontaneous processes the<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> the probability both ranging from<br />
high to low in three classes (high – medium – low)<br />
are needed:<br />
• For rock falls, the intensity is defined by<br />
the energy. High intensity is defined as<br />
e≥300kJ, which is approximately the limit<br />
of resistance of massive armored walls.<br />
• For slides, the mean long-term velocity,<br />
the variation of the velocity (dv, or<br />
acceleration), the differential movement<br />
(D), <strong>and</strong> the depth of the slide (T) are used<br />
to determine the intensity ([32] Raetzo &<br />
Loup 2009).<br />
• For flowing processes like earth flows, the<br />
potential thickness <strong>and</strong> the possible depth<br />
of the depo-sition determine the intensity.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 34<br />
Seite 35<br />
For l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls the Swiss evaluation<br />
is normally based on intensity maps where 3 or<br />
more classes can be chosen. (e.g. 10-20,000 kJ<br />
<strong>for</strong> rock falls).<br />
In Italy, different methods of <strong>assessment</strong><br />
are used. For example, the regional method<br />
of Friuli Venezia Giulia ([21] Kranitz & Bensi<br />
2009) <strong>for</strong> rock fall: The intensities are classified<br />
by different methods using several tables. For fall<br />
processes, a table with definition of classes of the<br />
geometry is determined (after [12] Heinimann et<br />
al. 1998). The classification takes into account the<br />
block size of the rocks ([21] Kranitz & Bensi 2009).<br />
Another table determines the velocity factor (v),<br />
also ranging from 1- 3, using the definitions from<br />
Cruden & Varnes ([9], 1996). The intensity class,<br />
ranging from 1- 9, is then determined with the<br />
geometry-velocity matrix.<br />
Comparison between the Swiss <strong>and</strong> the Italian<br />
intensity classification:<br />
The differences in determining the intensity<br />
between the Swiss ([32] Raetzo & Loup 2009)<br />
<strong>and</strong> the Friuli method ([21] Kranitz & Bensi<br />
2009) are:<br />
• For fall processes in the Italian method,<br />
the energy does not need to be calculated,<br />
only the block sizes <strong>and</strong> the velocity need<br />
to be determined, while in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> the<br />
energy is calculated.<br />
• The Italian method does not differentiate<br />
<strong>for</strong> continuous processes. Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
uses the mean long-term velocity <strong>for</strong> these<br />
continuous l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
• The Swiss method determines 3 intensity<br />
classes to apply within the <strong>hazard</strong> matrix<br />
<strong>for</strong> the l<strong>and</strong> use planning. If protection<br />
measures are planned in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, all<br />
the energy values are taken into account.<br />
The Italian method determines 9 intensity<br />
classes.<br />
Assessment of the probability<br />
(Switzerl<strong>and</strong>/ Friuli Venezia Giulia)<br />
Swiss method ([32] Raetzo & Loup 2009):<br />
The probability <strong>assessment</strong> of the Swiss method<br />
defines the probability in analogy to the recurrence<br />
periods used in flood <strong>and</strong> avalanche<br />
protection (30, 100, 300 years return period),<br />
which corresponds to yearly probabilities of 0.03,<br />
0.01 <strong>and</strong> 0.003. An event with a return period<br />
higher than 300 years is normally also considered<br />
<strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> (risk analysis, residual risk,…).<br />
It corresponds mainly to the flood prevention<br />
strategy.<br />
The probability of an event has to be calculated<br />
or estimated:<br />
• Big events (“Bergsturz”, >1mio m3) do not<br />
recur. For smaller events the probability is<br />
defined by the elements at risk.<br />
• For continuous slides the probability is 1 (or<br />
100%), meaning that the event is happening<br />
already. Scenarios are defined when sudden<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide failure or acceleration can take<br />
place. When fast moving l<strong>and</strong>slides (debris<br />
or earth slides according to Varnes) have<br />
long run-out distances, the process is<br />
moving into a flow. In this case the Swiss<br />
method takes into account the change from<br />
the first to the second move <strong>and</strong> criteria of<br />
the flow processes are applied (see below).<br />
• The probability <strong>for</strong> debris <strong>and</strong> earth flows is<br />
determined through field work <strong>and</strong> based<br />
on inventory data. Numerical modelling<br />
of flow processes is also used <strong>and</strong> the<br />
importance of these results is rising.<br />
Method of Friuli Venezia Giulia ([21] Kranitz &<br />
Bensi 2009):<br />
The possible frequency or occurrence probability<br />
is determined through the records of historical<br />
events. If there is a lack of sufficient historical data<br />
<strong>for</strong> the statistical evaluation of the return period,<br />
the values will be assigned by a typological<br />
approach based on bibliographical data inherent<br />
to the characteristics of temporal return of the<br />
various typologies of l<strong>and</strong>slides. This will be<br />
calibrated on geomorphologic observations,<br />
analyses of historical photos, <strong>and</strong> aerial pictures<br />
(which is also the case in the Swiss method) from<br />
the year 1954 up to now, <strong>and</strong> historical data from<br />
local sources. The probability is then classified in<br />
4 classes:<br />
• high: 1-30 years (active l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
continuous <strong>and</strong>/or intermittent l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
quiescent – episodic with high frequency)<br />
• medium: 30-100 years (quiescent – episodic<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides with medium frequency)<br />
• low: 100-300 years (quiescent – episodic<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides with low frequency)<br />
• >300 years (ancient l<strong>and</strong>slides or<br />
palaeol<strong>and</strong>slides).<br />
Other approaches to <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
France<br />
Malet et al. ([22] 2007) describes the French<br />
methodology <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide risk zoning (Plan<br />
de Prévention des Risques), where 3 classes of<br />
risk (R1, R2, R3) with specific rules <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
regulations <strong>and</strong> urbanism can be represented<br />
in a matrix depicting <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> potential<br />
consequences. This qualitative method is based<br />
on the expert opinion of the scientist. No<br />
specific investigation is necessary, available data<br />
<strong>and</strong> reports are sufficient. The scale of work is<br />
specified as 1:10,000. The <strong>hazard</strong> map is an<br />
interpretation of the type of processes, activity,<br />
age <strong>and</strong> magnitude of the processes; the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
map is an interpretation of the type of processes,<br />
activity, magnitude <strong>and</strong> frequency. The risk map is<br />
the crossing of the <strong>hazard</strong> map <strong>and</strong> the inventory<br />
map of major stakes ([22] Malet et al. 2007).<br />
Australia<br />
In the Australian guidelines <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk zoning <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
use planning, the number of events per length<br />
of source area per year (rock fall) or per square<br />
kilometer of source area per year (slides) is used<br />
<strong>for</strong> describing the <strong>hazard</strong> of small l<strong>and</strong>slides. For<br />
large l<strong>and</strong>slides, the annual probability of active<br />
sliding or the annual probability that movement<br />
will exceed a defined distance or the annual<br />
probability that cracking within a slide exceeds<br />
a defined length is used to describe the <strong>hazard</strong>.<br />
The description of the <strong>hazard</strong> should include the<br />
classification <strong>and</strong> the volume or the area of the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
Whether l<strong>and</strong>slide intensity is required<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> zoning is to be determined on a caseby-case<br />
basis. For rock fall <strong>hazard</strong> zoning, it is<br />
likely to be required. There<strong>for</strong>e the frequency<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> is much more important <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
zonation than the intensity according to AGS.<br />
Intensity <strong>assessment</strong> in Australia:<br />
The l<strong>and</strong>slide intensity is assessed as a spatial<br />
distribution of:<br />
• the velocity of sliding coupled with slide<br />
volume or<br />
• the kinetic energy (e.g. rock falls, rock<br />
avalanches), or<br />
• the total displacement or<br />
• the differential displacement or<br />
• the peak discharge per unit width (m3/m/<br />
sec., e.g. debris flows)<br />
For basic <strong>and</strong> intermediate level <strong>assessment</strong>s of<br />
intensity, only the velocity <strong>and</strong> volume might be<br />
assessed. But <strong>for</strong> the advanced <strong>assessment</strong>s of<br />
rock fall or debris flow <strong>hazard</strong>, the energy should<br />
be determined. In AGS ([3] 2007b) it is noted that<br />
“there is no unique definition <strong>for</strong> intensity. Those<br />
carrying out the zoning will have to decide which<br />
definition is most appropriate <strong>for</strong> the study”.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 36<br />
Seite 37<br />
Frequency <strong>assessment</strong> in Australia:<br />
In AGS ([3], 2007b), the <strong>assessment</strong> of the<br />
frequency of a l<strong>and</strong>slide event <strong>for</strong> the generation<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> maps is usually determined from the<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> of the recurrence intervals (the average<br />
time between events of the same magnitude) of<br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slides. If the variation of recurrence interval<br />
is plotted against magnitude of the event, a<br />
magnitude-frequency curve is obtained.<br />
The methods listed <strong>for</strong> determining the<br />
frequency include: historical records; sequences<br />
of aerial photographs <strong>and</strong>/or satellite images;<br />
silent witnesses; correlation with l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
triggering events (rain storms, earthquakes); proxy<br />
data (e.g. pollen deposition, lichen colonization,<br />
fauna assemblages in ponds generated by a<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide,…); geomorphologic features (ground<br />
cracks, fresh scarps,…); subjective <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
It is further noted that “l<strong>and</strong>slides of<br />
different types <strong>and</strong> sizes do not normally have<br />
the same frequency (annual probability) of<br />
occurrence. Small l<strong>and</strong>slide events often occur<br />
more frequently than large ones. Different<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide types <strong>and</strong> mechanics of sliding have<br />
different triggers (e.g. rainfalls of different<br />
intensity, duration <strong>and</strong> antecedent conditions;<br />
earthquakes of different magnitude <strong>and</strong> peak<br />
ground acceleration) with different recurrence<br />
periods. Because of this, to quantify <strong>hazard</strong>, an<br />
appropriate magnitude-frequency relationship<br />
should in principle be established <strong>for</strong> every<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide type in the study area. In practice, the<br />
data available is often limited <strong>and</strong> this can only be<br />
done approximately.” A row of useful references<br />
on frequency <strong>assessment</strong> are listed in AGS ([3],<br />
2007b).<br />
In AGS ([1], 2000) it is noted that “even<br />
if extensive investigation is carried out, assessing<br />
the probability of l<strong>and</strong>sliding (particularly <strong>for</strong> an<br />
unfailed natural slope) is difficult <strong>and</strong> involves<br />
much uncertainty <strong>and</strong> judgement. In recognition<br />
of this uncertainty, it has been common practice<br />
to report the likelihood of l<strong>and</strong>sliding using<br />
qualitative terms such as “likely”, “possible” or<br />
“unlikely”.”<br />
Procedures of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping<br />
in the considered regions<br />
Tab. 3 gives an overview of <strong>hazard</strong> maps generated<br />
in the considered countries.<br />
In Germany a recommendation on how to create<br />
a susceptibility map is given by the “Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s”<br />
team of engineering geologists of German federal<br />
governmental departments of geology ([37] SGD<br />
2007). In 2007, the LfU completed the L<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility map of Oberallgäu (Bavaria). For<br />
this map, the processes of rock falls, superficial<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides were<br />
treated separately. The susceptibility maps <strong>for</strong> rock<br />
falls <strong>and</strong> superficial l<strong>and</strong>slides were created using<br />
modelling, whereas the susceptibility map <strong>for</strong><br />
deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides was created empirically,<br />
assuming that deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides tend to occur<br />
in areas already affected by l<strong>and</strong>slides in the past,<br />
but taking into consideration that process areas<br />
can exp<strong>and</strong> during reactivation of a l<strong>and</strong>slide. The<br />
basic data used <strong>for</strong> the investigations contained<br />
the following: topographic map 1:25,000, raster<br />
<strong>for</strong>mat; geological map 1:25,000 or 1:50,000 <strong>and</strong><br />
also maps in smaller scales where the detailed<br />
maps were not available, vector <strong>for</strong>mat; DTM,<br />
10m raster data; aerial photographs 1:18,000 <strong>and</strong><br />
orthophotos; data on <strong>for</strong>ests; GEORISK data (BIS-<br />
BY); data on catchment areas; historical data.<br />
In Austria only the Austrian Service <strong>for</strong><br />
Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control (WLV) generates<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps, called “Gefahrenzonenkarte” or<br />
“<strong>hazard</strong> zone maps” <strong>for</strong> floods, avalanches <strong>and</strong><br />
debris flows within the “Hazard zonation plan”<br />
(“Gefahrenzonenplan”). This is regulated by law<br />
(Forest Act BGBL. 440/1975). The implementation<br />
is regulated by a decree (“Verordnung des<br />
Bundesministeriums für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft,<br />
1976“, BGBl. Nr. 436/1976). The scale usually<br />
ranges between 1:2,000 <strong>and</strong> 1:5,000, it must not be<br />
smaller than 1:50,000. The map gives in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about the determined effects in the relevant area<br />
of catchment areas (torrent buffer areas) in red<br />
<strong>and</strong> yellow <strong>hazard</strong> zones. The design event is<br />
determined by a return period of 150 years.<br />
In the red <strong>hazard</strong> zone, infrastructures<br />
cannot be maintained or can only be maintained<br />
with a very high ef<strong>for</strong>t due to the high intensity<br />
or a high recurrence of avalanches or torrential<br />
events.<br />
The yellow <strong>hazard</strong> zone includes all<br />
other areas affected by avalanches <strong>and</strong> torrents.<br />
The constant use of these areas by infrastructures<br />
is affected due to these <strong>hazard</strong>s. The <strong>hazard</strong><br />
zone map also delineates blue areas (<strong>for</strong> the<br />
implementation of technical or <strong>for</strong>estal measures<br />
as well as protective measures), as well as brown<br />
<strong>and</strong> violet reference areas.<br />
The brown reference areas are areas<br />
presumably affected by other <strong>hazard</strong>s than<br />
torrents or avalanches, like rock fall or l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
The violet reference areas are areas, where soil<br />
<strong>and</strong> terrain have to be protected in order to keep<br />
up their protective function.<br />
In Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, the Federal Office <strong>for</strong><br />
the Environment FOEN (Bundesamt für Umwelt,<br />
BAFU) is responsible <strong>for</strong> creating guidelines<br />
concerning protection against natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
(floods, mass movements, snow avalanches). The<br />
concepts are similar <strong>for</strong> these processes to reach<br />
a certain level of protection. Protection against<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s takes place on the principle of<br />
integral risk management, taking into account:<br />
• Prevention of an event<br />
• Conflict management during an event<br />
• Regeneration <strong>and</strong> reconstruction after<br />
an event.<br />
The Swiss regulations are described in more detail<br />
by Raetzo in this issue [31].<br />
In some regions of Italy the <strong>hazard</strong> is<br />
assessed using the Swiss method ([30] Raetzo<br />
2002). This method is similar to the method planned<br />
by the Italian legislative body <strong>for</strong> hydrogeological<br />
risk <strong>assessment</strong>. Appropriate changes have been<br />
introduced in order to st<strong>and</strong>ardize these aspects<br />
<strong>and</strong> contextualize the method <strong>for</strong> territorial<br />
jurisdiction ([21] Kranitz & Bensi 2009). Four<br />
classes of <strong>hazard</strong>s are distinguished, ranging<br />
from very high (P4 “molto elevata”), high (P3<br />
“elevata”), medium (P2 “media”), to moderate (P1<br />
“moderata”).<br />
The French <strong>hazard</strong> map, PPR, Plan<br />
de prevention des risques, is made by the local<br />
authorities (mayors), but with support by national<br />
agencies like CEMAGREF or agencies of the<br />
departments. It was introduced in 1995. Made<br />
by the municipalities at a scale of 1:10,000<br />
-1:25,000, the plans need to be authorized<br />
by the prefects in collaboration with the local<br />
authorities <strong>and</strong> the civil society, such as insurance<br />
companies. The PPR gives in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
identification of danger zones; 3 classes of risk<br />
with specific rules <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use regulations <strong>and</strong><br />
urbanism can be represented. The method is a<br />
qualitative method based on the expert judgment<br />
of the scientist. There are PPRs <strong>for</strong> floods, mass<br />
movements, avalanches <strong>and</strong> wood fires. Nonobservance<br />
of the PPR has legal consequences.<br />
In Spain the Geological Institute of<br />
Catalonia (IGC) is responsible to “study <strong>and</strong><br />
assess geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, including avalanches,<br />
to propose measures to develop <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecast,<br />
prevention <strong>and</strong> mitigation <strong>and</strong> to give support<br />
to other agencies competent in l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> urban<br />
planning, <strong>and</strong> in emergency management” ([28]<br />
Oller et al. 2010). There<strong>for</strong>e, the IGC is charged<br />
with making official <strong>hazard</strong> maps with such<br />
finality. These maps comply with the Catalan
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 38<br />
Seite 39<br />
Urban Law (1/2005), which indicates that in those<br />
places where a risk exists, building is not allowed.<br />
For <strong>hazard</strong> mapping, the work is done on two<br />
scales: l<strong>and</strong> planning scale (1:25,000), <strong>and</strong> urban<br />
scale (1:5,000 or more detailed). These scales<br />
imply different approaches <strong>and</strong> methods to obtain<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> parameters. The maps are generated in<br />
the framework of a mapping plan or as the final<br />
product of a specific <strong>hazard</strong> report.<br />
The Australian AGS guidelines ([1] AGS,<br />
2000, [2]- [6] AGS 2007a-e) provide <strong>for</strong> a <strong>hazard</strong><br />
zonation at a local (1:5,000 -1:25,000) <strong>and</strong> a site<br />
specific (>1:5,000, typically 1:5,000 -1:1,000)<br />
scale with 5 <strong>hazard</strong> descriptors: very high – high<br />
– moderate – low – very low.<br />
The state of Washington (USA) generated<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mationsebene<br />
Interpretationsebene / Bewertungsebene<br />
quantitativ qualitativ / semiquantitativ<br />
Ereigniskataster<br />
Gefahrenhinweiskarte<br />
Fig. 1: Workflow of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping. ([18] Kociu et al. 2010)<br />
Ereigniskarte<br />
Grunddispositionskarte<br />
Abb. 1: Flussdiagramm zum Prozess Gefahrenkartierung. ([18] Kociu et al. 2010)<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zonation maps at a scale of 1:12,000.<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> included evaluating a<br />
“l<strong>and</strong>slide frequency rate (LFR)“ <strong>and</strong> a “l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
area rate <strong>for</strong> delivery (LAR)”. The LFR is obtained<br />
by taking the number of delivering l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
per l<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>m, divided by the total area of that<br />
l<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>m, <strong>and</strong> normalized to the period of study.<br />
The LAR is the area of delivering l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
normalized to the period of study <strong>and</strong> the area of<br />
each l<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>m. The resulting values are multiplied<br />
by one million <strong>for</strong> easier interpretation.<br />
In Cali<strong>for</strong>nia soil-slip susceptibility maps<br />
were produced at a scale of 1:24,000 delineating<br />
the susceptibility in 3 classes: low, moderate <strong>and</strong><br />
high. They give in<strong>for</strong>mation about the relative susceptibility<br />
of hill slopes to the initiation sites of<br />
Prozesshinweiskarte<br />
(Karte der Phänomene)<br />
Dispostionskarte<br />
Gefahrenpotentialkarte<br />
(Karte der potentiellen Wirkungsbereiche)<br />
Gefahrenkarte<br />
Risikokarte<br />
Thematische<br />
Inventarkarte<br />
Erweiterte<br />
Dispositionskarte<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ortparameter<br />
und -verhältnisse<br />
rainfall-triggered soil-slip debris flows ([26] Morton<br />
et al., 2003).<br />
The state of Utah prepared a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility map <strong>for</strong> the whole state at a scale<br />
of 1:500,000 <strong>for</strong> deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides, based<br />
on existing l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> slope angle thresholds<br />
<strong>for</strong> different geologic units. The susceptibility is<br />
delineated in 4 classes: high – moderate – low –<br />
very low ([10] Giraud & Shaw, 2007).<br />
Conclusion <strong>and</strong> recommendations<br />
Guzzetti ([11], 2005) discusses <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
in his thesis: “Despite the time [since the definition<br />
of “l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>” given by Varnes <strong>and</strong> the<br />
IAEG Commission on L<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> other <strong>Mass</strong><br />
<strong>Movements</strong> ([39], 1984)] <strong>and</strong> the extensive list<br />
of published papers – most of which, in spite of<br />
the title or the intention of the authors, deal with<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>and</strong> not with l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>”, l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> at the basin<br />
scale is sparse. And further: “This is largely due<br />
to difficulties associated with the quantitative<br />
determination of l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>.” In carrying out<br />
the literature survey, this un<strong>for</strong>tunately proved to<br />
be true <strong>and</strong> contributed to the confusion existing<br />
with definitions ([29] Posch-Trözmüller 2010).<br />
The differences call first <strong>for</strong> a national<br />
harmonization <strong>and</strong> second <strong>for</strong> international<br />
comparable methods (minimal requirements).<br />
To assess l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>s, the<br />
geological, morphological, hydrogeological <strong>and</strong><br />
hydrological conditions must be known <strong>and</strong><br />
analysed: The differences regarding acquisition of<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> of the susceptibility/<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> of slopes to l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall shown<br />
in the chapter above call <strong>for</strong> a “harmonization”<br />
of the different methods (e.g. parameters,<br />
minimal requirements). Hazard <strong>assessment</strong><br />
needs in<strong>for</strong>mation about possible scenarios.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories sustain l<strong>and</strong>slide knowledge<br />
through time <strong>and</strong> represent the main resource <strong>for</strong><br />
susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>. The evidence<br />
identified in the field are the facts dealing with<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. Inventories are the essential base<br />
<strong>for</strong> accurate <strong>hazard</strong>/risk <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> have<br />
there<strong>for</strong>e to be established by authorities.<br />
The variability of phenomena of mass<br />
movements makes regulations concerning<br />
methods of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> difficult. Guidelines<br />
regarding <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> should declare the<br />
minimal requirements taking into account the<br />
final objective <strong>and</strong> the scale of product.
Key-note papers<br />
Countries Austria D CH SLO IT F AUS USA<br />
GBA NÖ K MM S By CH SLO IT F AUS O W U<br />
Inventory x x x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
Basic in<strong>for</strong>mation where x x x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
when x x x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
what x x x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
why x x x x x x x x x x<br />
who x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
reported when x x x x x x x x<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide conditions activity x x x x x x x x x<br />
geometry x x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
slope position x x x x x x<br />
approx. original slope x x x<br />
site description x x x x<br />
depth to bedrock x x<br />
depth to failure<br />
plane<br />
slope aspect x x x x x x<br />
slope x x x<br />
Geology in general x x x x x x x x x<br />
Geology, specified<br />
geologic/ tectonic<br />
unit<br />
x x x x x x x<br />
lithology/ stratigraphy x x x x x x x<br />
bedding attitude x x x x<br />
weathering x x x<br />
geotechnical<br />
properties<br />
x x x x x x x x<br />
x<br />
geotechnical<br />
parameters<br />
x x x<br />
rock mass structure x x x<br />
joints/ joint spacing x x x x<br />
discontinuities x x x<br />
structural<br />
contributions<br />
x x x<br />
L<strong>and</strong> cover/ use x x x x x<br />
Hydrogeology x x x x<br />
Relationship to rainfall x x x<br />
Classification of mass<br />
movements<br />
x x x<br />
Classification type x x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
rate of movement x x x<br />
material x x x x<br />
water content x x x<br />
Causes, Trigger x x x x x x x x x x<br />
Precursory signs x<br />
Silent witnesses x<br />
Damage x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
"Hazard" to infrastructure x x x x<br />
Remedial measures x x x x x<br />
Costs of measures <strong>and</strong><br />
investigation<br />
x x x<br />
Methods used x x x x x x x x x<br />
Degree of precision<br />
info/ reliability<br />
x x x x<br />
Reports etc. x x x x x x x x<br />
Tab. 1: Comparison of in<strong>for</strong>mation collected <strong>for</strong> different inventories<br />
Tab. 1: Vergleich der In<strong>for</strong>mationen in Ereigniskatastern<br />
Seite 40<br />
Seite 41
Key-note papers<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong> low intensity moderate intensity high intensity<br />
rock fall E
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 44<br />
Seite 45<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
Countries/ projects<br />
Comparison of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps<br />
USA:<br />
Washington<br />
Australia:<br />
AGS<br />
France:<br />
PPR<br />
Italy:<br />
Guzzetti<br />
Italy:<br />
Friuli, Veneto<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong>:<br />
FOEN/BAFU<br />
Austria:<br />
WLV<br />
1:12,000<br />
1:5,000-<br />
1:25,000<br />
1:10,000<br />
(urban),<br />
-1:25,000<br />
(rural)<br />
national is<br />
possible,<br />
regional<br />
1:2,000- 1:10,000 detail<br />
1:2,000-<br />
1:5,000<br />
Scale<br />
eventually x x<br />
Basic data:<br />
susceptibility map<br />
Basic data: inventory x x x x x x x<br />
30 years<br />
100 years<br />
300 years<br />
>300 years<br />
30 years<br />
100 years<br />
300 years<br />
(Residual risk zones<br />
<strong>for</strong> RP>300y)<br />
Return periods<br />
considered <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
use (probability) 150 years<br />
statistical<br />
statistic <strong>and</strong><br />
empirical<br />
qualitative<br />
empirical,<br />
probabilistic<br />
quantitative,<br />
statistical<br />
(incl. field<br />
investigation)<br />
quantitative,<br />
statistic, qualitative<br />
(incl. field<br />
investigation)<br />
quantitative,<br />
statistic,<br />
empirical<br />
Method<br />
(<strong>assessment</strong>,<br />
modelling)<br />
5 4 5 2 (3) 5 3<br />
2 (<strong>for</strong> torrent<br />
<strong>and</strong> debris<br />
flow),<br />
indication <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong><br />
rock fall<br />
Legend:<br />
Levels of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
Tab. 3: Comparison of different <strong>hazard</strong> maps, their scales <strong>and</strong> legends (levels of <strong>hazard</strong>)<br />
Tab. 3: Vergleich von verschiedenen Gefahrenkarten, Maßstäben und Legenden (Grad der Gefahren)<br />
Richard Bäk<br />
Amt der Kärntner L<strong>and</strong>esregierung<br />
Abt. 15 Umwelt<br />
Unterabteilung Geologie und Bodenschutz<br />
Flatschacher Straße 70, A – 9020 Klagenfurt<br />
Karl Mayer<br />
Bayerisches L<strong>and</strong>esamt für Umwelt<br />
Abt. 6 Wasserbau, Hochwasserschutz,<br />
Gewässerschutz<br />
Ref. 61 Hochwasserschutz und alpine<br />
Naturgefahren<br />
Lazarettstraße 67<br />
D – 80636 München<br />
Gerlinde Posch-Trözmüller<br />
Geologische Bundesanstalt<br />
Fachabteilung Rohstoffgeologie<br />
Neulinggasse 38, A-1030 Wien<br />
Andreas von Poschinger<br />
Bayerisches L<strong>and</strong>esamt für Umwelt<br />
Abt. 10 Geologischer Dienst<br />
Ref.106 Ingenieurgeologie, Georisiken,<br />
Lazarettstraße 67, D – 80636 München<br />
Hugo Raetzo<br />
Federal Office <strong>for</strong> the Environment FOEN<br />
Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU<br />
CH - 3003 Bern, Schweiz<br />
[1] AGS - AUSTRALIAN GEOMECHANICS SOCIETY, SUB-COMMITTEE<br />
ON LANDSLIDE RISK MANAGEMENT (2000):<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Risk Management Concepts <strong>and</strong> Guidelines. Australian<br />
Geomechanics, Vol 35, No 1, March 2000.<br />
[2] AGS (2007a).<br />
Guideline <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide Susceptibility, Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk Zoning <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong><br />
Use Planning. Australian Geomechanics Society. Australian Geomechanics,<br />
Vol 42, No 1, March 2007.<br />
[3] AGS (2007b).<br />
Commentary on Guideline <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide Susceptibility, Hazard <strong>and</strong><br />
Risk Zoning <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong> Use Planning. Australian Geomechanics Society.<br />
Australian Geomechanics, Vol 42, No 1, March 2007.<br />
[4] AGS (2007c).<br />
Practice Note Guidelines <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide Risk Management. Australian<br />
Geomechanics Society. Australian Geomechanics, Vol 42, No 1, March<br />
2007.<br />
[5] AGS (2007d).<br />
Commentary on Practice Note Guidelines <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide Risk Management<br />
2007. Australian Geomechanics Society. Australian Geomechanics, Vol 42,<br />
No 1, March 2007.<br />
[6] AGS (2007e).<br />
The Australian GeoGuides <strong>for</strong> slope management <strong>and</strong> maintenance.<br />
Australian Geomechanics Society. Australian Geomechanics, Vol 42, No<br />
1, March 2007.<br />
[7] BÄK, EBERHART, GOLDSCHMIDT, KOCIU, LETOUZE-ZEZULA &<br />
LIPIARSKI:<br />
Ereigniskataster und Karte der Phänomene als Werkzeug zur Darstellung<br />
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[8] BWG - BUNDESAMT FÜR WASSER UND GEOLOGIE:<br />
Naturgefahren, Symbolbaukasten zur Kartierung der Phänomene, 2002<br />
[9] CRUDEN D.M. UND VARNES D.J.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide types <strong>and</strong> processes. In: A. Keith Turner & Robert L. Schuster<br />
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[10] GIRAUD, R.E., SHAW, L.M.:<br />
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Survey, Utah Department of Natural Resources, Salt Lake City 2007.<br />
[11] GUZZETTI, F.:<br />
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[12] HEINIMANN, H.R., VISSER, R.J.M., STAMPFER, K.:<br />
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[13] ISPRA INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND<br />
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[14] KIENHOLZ, H., KRUMMENACHER, B.:<br />
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[15] KLINGSEISEN, B., LEOPOLD, PH.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Hazard Mapping in Austria.-GIM International 20 (12): 41-43,<br />
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[16] KLINGSEISEN, B., LEOPOLD, PH., TSCHACH, M.:<br />
Mapping L<strong>and</strong>slide Hazards in Austria: GIS Aids Regional Planning in Non-<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> Regions. ArcNews 28 (3): 16, 2006.<br />
[17] KOCIU, A., LETOUZE-ZEZULA, G., TILCH, N., GRÖSEL, K.:<br />
Georisiko-Potenzial Kärnten; Entwicklung einer GIS-basierten<br />
Gefahrenhinweiskarte betreffend <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen auf Grundlage<br />
einer digitalen geologischen Karte (1:50,000) und eines georeferenzierten<br />
Ereigniskatasters. Endbericht, Gefährdungskarte, Ausweisung von<br />
Bereichen unterschiedlicher Suszeptibilität für verschiedene Typengruppen<br />
der <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegung. Bund/Bundesländerkooperation KC-29, Bibl. Geol.<br />
B.-A., Wiss. Archiv, Wien, 2006<br />
[18] KOCIU, A., TILCH N., SCHWARZ L,. HABERLER A., MELZNER S.:<br />
GEORIOS - Jahresbericht 2009; Geol.B.-A. Wien 2010.<br />
[19] KOLMER, CH.:<br />
Geogenes Baugrundrisiko Öberösterreich. Vortrag im Rahmen des<br />
L<strong>and</strong>esgeologentages 2009, 26.2.2009, St. Pölten, 2009.<br />
[20] KOMAC, M.; RIBICIC, M.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Susceptibility Map of Slovenia 1:250,000. Geological Survey of<br />
Slovenia, Ljubljana 2008.<br />
[21] KRANITZ, F., BENSI, S.:<br />
The BUWAL method. In: Posch-Trözmüller, G. (Ed.): Second Scientific<br />
Report to the INTERREG IV A project MASSMOVE - Minimal st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
<strong>for</strong> compilation of danger maps like l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall as a tool <strong>for</strong><br />
disaster prevention. Attachment 4 to the second progress report, Geological<br />
Survey of Austria, Wien, 2009.<br />
[22] Malet, J.-P.; Thiery, Y.; Maquaire, O.; Sterlacchini, S.; van Beek,<br />
L.P.H.; van Asch, Th.W.J.; Puissant, A.; Remaitre, A.: L<strong>and</strong>slide risk zoning:<br />
What can be expected from model simulations? JRC Expert Meetings<br />
on Guidelines <strong>for</strong> Mapping Areas at Risk of L<strong>and</strong>slides in Europe 23-24<br />
October 2007, JRC, Ispra EU, 2007.<br />
[23] MAYER, K.:<br />
Maßnahme 3.2a „Schaffung geologischer und hydrologischer<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mationsgrundlagen“. Vorhaben „Gefahrenhinweiskarte Oberallgäu“.<br />
Bayerisches L<strong>and</strong>esamt für Umwelt, München 2007.<br />
[24] MAZENGARB, C.:<br />
The Tasmanian L<strong>and</strong>slide Hazard Map Series: Methodology. Tasmanian<br />
Geological Survey Record 2005/04, Mineral Resources Tasmania, 2005.<br />
[25] MIDDELMANN, M. H. (ED.):<br />
Natural Hazards in Australia: Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements.<br />
Geoscience Australia, Canberra 2007.<br />
[26] MORTON, D.M., ALVAREZ, R.M., CAMPBELL, R.H.:<br />
Preliminary soil-slip susceptibility maps, southwestern Cali<strong>for</strong>nia. USGS<br />
Open-File Report OF 03-17, Riverside, 2003.<br />
[27] NÖSSING, L.:<br />
Gefahrenzonenplanung in Südtirol. Vortrag im Rahmen des<br />
L<strong>and</strong>esgeologentages 2009, 26.2.2009, St. Pölten 2009.<br />
[28] OLLER, P., GONZALEZ, M., PINYOL, J., MARTINEZ, P.:<br />
Hazard mapping in Catalonia. Vortrag Workshop AdaptAlp, 17.3.2010,<br />
Bozen 2010.<br />
[29] POSCH-TRÖZMÜLLER, G.:<br />
AdaptAlp WP 5.1 Hazard Mapping - Geological Hazards. Literature<br />
Survey regarding methods of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping <strong>and</strong> evaluation of danger by<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall. Final Report, Geologische Bundesanstalt, Wien,<br />
2010<br />
[30] RAETZO, H.:<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> – codes of practice <strong>for</strong> mass movements,<br />
International Association of Engineering Geology IAEG Bulletin, 2002.<br />
[31] REATZO, H. & LOUP, B.:<br />
Geological <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> (this issue)<br />
[32] RAETZO, H. & LOUP, B. ET AL.; BAFU:<br />
Schutz vor <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen. Technische Richtlinie als Vollzugshilfe.<br />
Entwurf 9. Sept. 2009.<br />
[33] REEVES, H.:<br />
Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s: The UK perspective. Vortrag Workshop AdaptAlp, 17.3.2010,<br />
Bozen 2010.<br />
[34] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. & SCHMIDT F.:<br />
Implementation, application <strong>and</strong> en<strong>for</strong>cement of <strong>hazard</strong> zone maps<br />
<strong>for</strong> torrent <strong>and</strong> avalanches control in Austria, Forstliche Schriftenreihe,<br />
Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Bd. 18, p. 83-107, 2004.<br />
[35] RUFF, M.:<br />
GIS-gestützte Risikonanalyse für Rutschungen und Felsstürze in den<br />
Ostalpen (Vorarlberg, Österreich). Georisikokarte Vorarlberg. Diss. Univ.<br />
Karlsruhe, 2005.<br />
[36] SCHWEIGL, J.; HERVAS, J.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Mapping in Austria. JRC Scientific <strong>and</strong> Technical Report EUR<br />
23785 EN, Office <strong>for</strong> Official Publications of the European Communities,<br />
61 pp. ISBN 978-92-79-11776-3, Luxembourg, 2009.<br />
[37] SGD, PERSONENKREIS GEOGEFAHREN: Geogene Naturgefahren in<br />
Deutschl<strong>and</strong>- Empfehlungen der Staatlichen Geologischen Dienste (SGD)<br />
zur Erstellung von Gefahrenhinweiskarten., 2007.<br />
[38] TILCH, N.:<br />
Datenmanagementsystem GEORIOS (Geogene Risiken Österreich). Vortrag<br />
im Rahmen des L<strong>and</strong>esgeologentages 2009, 26.2.2009, St. Pölten 2009.<br />
[39] VARNES, D.J. AND IAEG COMMISSION ON LANDSLIDES AND<br />
OTHER MASS-MOVEMENTS:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> zonation: a review of principles <strong>and</strong> practice. The<br />
UNESCO Press, Paris, 1984.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 48<br />
Seite 49<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
In den Bergregionen treten an Steilhängen verschiedene Arten von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen<br />
auf, die Wasser und Sedimente mit sich führen: Muren, Bergsturz und Steinschlag. Das<br />
Ziel dieser Abh<strong>and</strong>lung ist es, einen kurzen Überblick über die vergangenen Analysen der<br />
Gefahren von Hangmassenbewegungen zu geben. Obwohl der Schwerpunkt auf Bergstürzen<br />
liegt, können die präsentierten Ansätze auch zur Gefahrenbeurteilung von Muren<br />
und Steinschlag verwendet werden. Insbesondere Bergstürze und Muren sind sehr häufig<br />
mitein<strong>and</strong>er verflochten. Im Folgenden wird „Bergsturz“ im weiteren Sinn als ein Begriff<br />
verwendet, der nicht nur auf einen Erdrutsch zu beziehen ist, sondern auch auf <strong>and</strong>ere<br />
Hangmassenbewegungen.<br />
Schlüsselwörter: Bergstürze, Muren, Felssturz, numerische Ansätze, Bergsturzgefahrenanalyse<br />
MATEJA JEMEC, MARKO KOMAC<br />
An Overview of Approaches <strong>for</strong><br />
Hazard Assessment of Slope <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong><br />
Ein Überblick über die Ansätze zur<br />
Gefahrenbeurteilung von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegung<br />
Summary:<br />
In mountainous areas, various types of mass movements occur on steep slopes involving<br />
water <strong>and</strong> sediment: debris flows, l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rockfalls. The aim of this paper is to gather<br />
a short overview of the past analyses that dealt with the <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> of slope mass<br />
movements. Although the main focus is on l<strong>and</strong>slides, the approaches presented can be used<br />
to assess debris flows <strong>and</strong> rockfall <strong>hazard</strong>s. In particular, l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> debris flow are very<br />
often interlaced between each other. In the following text, the term “l<strong>and</strong>slide” will be used<br />
as a term that might not always be strictly connected to only l<strong>and</strong>slides but also to other<br />
slope mass movements. In a way it has a broader meaning.<br />
Keywords: l<strong>and</strong>slides, debris-flows, rockfall, numerical approaches, l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
1. The “Early Ages”<br />
The first extensive papers on the use of spatial<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation in a digital context <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility mapping date back to the late<br />
seventies <strong>and</strong> early eighties of the last century.<br />
Among the pioneers in this field were Carrara<br />
et al. (1977) in Italy <strong>and</strong> Brabb et al. (1978) in<br />
Cali<strong>for</strong>nia. Nowadays, practically all research<br />
on l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> mapping<br />
makes use of digital tools <strong>for</strong> h<strong>and</strong>ling spatial data<br />
such as GIS, GPS <strong>and</strong> Remote Sensing. These tools<br />
also have defined, to a large extent, the type of<br />
analysis that can be carried out. It can be stated<br />
that to a certain degree the capability of GIS<br />
tools <strong>and</strong> the accuracy of the in-situ <strong>and</strong> remote<br />
sensing data have determined the current state of<br />
the art in l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
Many publications about l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> some<br />
worldwide l<strong>and</strong>slide research problems can be<br />
found in the literature of Einstein (1988), Fell<br />
(1994), Dai et al. (2002) <strong>and</strong> Glade et al. (2005).<br />
2. Terminology<br />
The term l<strong>and</strong>slide was defined by Varnes <strong>and</strong><br />
IAEG (1984) as “almost all varieties of mass<br />
movements on slopes, including rock-fall, topples<br />
<strong>and</strong> debris flow, that involve little or no true<br />
sliding”. Cruden (1991) moderated the accepted<br />
definition as “the movement of a mass of rock,<br />
earth or debris down a slope”. Later different<br />
working groups were established to support a<br />
specific level of st<strong>and</strong>ardisation in fields related<br />
to l<strong>and</strong>slides (UNESCO, IUGS, ISSMGE, ISRM<br />
<strong>and</strong> IAEG) <strong>and</strong> created the JTC (Joint Technical<br />
Committee on L<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> Engineered Slopes),<br />
which continues to work <strong>for</strong> the st<strong>and</strong>ardisation<br />
<strong>and</strong> promotion of research on l<strong>and</strong>slides among<br />
the different disciplines. A large set of definitions<br />
was later presented by ISSMGE TC32 (Technical<br />
Committee on Risk Assessment <strong>and</strong> Management,<br />
2004) where international terms recognized <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>hazard</strong>, vulnerability, risk <strong>and</strong> disaster can also<br />
be found. Since these definitions were published,<br />
many approaches have been implemented<br />
(Einstein, 1988; Fell, 1994; Soeters <strong>and</strong> van Westen,<br />
1996; Wu et al., 1996; Cruden <strong>and</strong> Fell, 1997; van<br />
Westen et al., 2003; Lee <strong>and</strong> Jones, 2004; Glade et<br />
al., 2005) allowing one to conclude that nowadays<br />
definitions regarding l<strong>and</strong>slides risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
are generally accepted. The latest in<strong>for</strong>mation of<br />
guidelines <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
risk zoning are published by JTC-1 (2008) <strong>and</strong> van<br />
Westen et al. (2008).
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 50<br />
Seite 51<br />
Data layer <strong>and</strong> types Accompanying data in tables Used methods <strong>for</strong> data collecting<br />
1. L<strong>and</strong>slide occurrence<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides Type, activity, depth, dimensions, etc Fieldwork, orthophoto, satellite images<br />
2. Environmental (preparatory) factors<br />
Terrain mapping units Units description In-situ survey (fieldwork), satellite images<br />
Geomorphological units Geomorphological description Ortophoto, fieldwork, high resolution DEM<br />
Digital elevation model (DEM) Altitude classes SRTM DEM data, topographic map<br />
Slope map Slope angle classes With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Aspect map Slope direction classes With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Slope length Slope length classes With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Slope shape Concavity/convexity With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Internal relief Altitude/area classes With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Drainage density Longitude/area classes With GIS <strong>for</strong>m DEM<br />
Lithologies<br />
Soils <strong>and</strong> material sequences<br />
Structural geological map<br />
Lithology, rock strength, weathering<br />
process<br />
Soils types, materials, depth, grain<br />
size, distribution, bulk density<br />
Fault type, length, dip, dip direction,<br />
fold axis<br />
Fieldwork <strong>and</strong> laboratory tests, archives,<br />
orthophoto<br />
Modelling <strong>for</strong>m lithological map,<br />
geomorphological map <strong>and</strong> slope map,<br />
fieldwork <strong>and</strong> laboratory analysis<br />
Fieldwork, satellite images, orthofoto<br />
Vertical movements Vertical movements, velocities Geodetic data, satellite data<br />
L<strong>and</strong> use map L<strong>and</strong> use type, tree density root depth Satellite images, orthofoto, fieldwork<br />
Drainage Type, order <strong>and</strong> length Orthophoto, topographic map<br />
Catchment areas Order, size Orthophoto, topographic map<br />
Water table Depth of water table in time Hydraulic stations<br />
3. Triggering factors<br />
Rainfall <strong>and</strong> maximum probabilities Precipitation in time Meteorological stations <strong>and</strong> modelling<br />
Earthquakes <strong>and</strong> seismic<br />
acceleration<br />
4. Elements at risk<br />
Earthquakes database <strong>and</strong><br />
maximum sesismic acceleration<br />
Seismic data, engineering geological data<br />
<strong>and</strong> modelling<br />
Population Number, sex, age, etc. Statistics in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Transportation system <strong>and</strong> facilities<br />
Lifeline utility system<br />
Roads <strong>and</strong> railroad types, facilities<br />
types<br />
Types of lifeline network <strong>and</strong><br />
capacity of fascilities<br />
Atlas, topographic map, local<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Atlas, topographic map, local<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Building Type of structure <strong>and</strong> occupation Topographic map, Housing in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Industry Industry production <strong>and</strong> type Atlas, topographic map, local in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Services facilities<br />
Number <strong>and</strong> type of health,<br />
educational, cultural <strong>and</strong> sport<br />
facilities<br />
Atlas, topographic map, local in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Tourism facilities Type of touristy facilities Atlas, topographic map, local in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Natural resources<br />
Area without natural resources<br />
combined<br />
Atlas, topographic map, local in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Tab. 1: Summary of data needed <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk <strong>assessment</strong>. Adapted from Soeters <strong>and</strong> van Westen (1996).<br />
Tab. 1: Zusammenfassung der Daten für Erdrutsch-Gefährdungs- und Risikoanalyse. Adaptiert von Soeters und van Westen (1996).<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide related data can be grouped into four<br />
main sets, Table 1 (Soeters <strong>and</strong> van Westen, 1996).<br />
Debris flows are processes that<br />
have several sub-categories <strong>and</strong> different<br />
characteristics. Debris flows are gravity-induced<br />
mass movements, intermediate between l<strong>and</strong><br />
sliding <strong>and</strong> water flooding, with mechanical<br />
characteristics different from either of these<br />
processes (Johnson, 1970). According to Varnes<br />
(1978), debris flow is a <strong>for</strong>m of rapid mass<br />
movement of rocks <strong>and</strong> soils in a body of granular<br />
solid, water, <strong>and</strong> air, analogous to the movement<br />
of liquids. In the l<strong>and</strong>slide classification of Cruden<br />
<strong>and</strong> Varnes (1996), debris flows are flow-like<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides with less than 80% of s<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> finer<br />
particles. Velocities vary between very rapid <strong>and</strong><br />
extremely rapid with typical velocities of 3 m/min<br />
<strong>and</strong> 5 m/sec, respectively. L<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> debris<br />
Fig. 1: Classification of slope mass movements as a ratio of solid fraction <strong>and</strong> material type.<br />
Modified after Coussot <strong>and</strong> Meunier (1996).<br />
Abb. 1: Klassifikation von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen als Verhältnis von Geschiebefraktion und Materialart.<br />
Modifiziert nach Coussot und Meunier (1996).<br />
flow are very often interlaced between each<br />
other (Fig.1). In many cases, heavy precipitation<br />
is recognised as the main cause, <strong>and</strong> thresholds<br />
under different climatic conditions have been<br />
empirically evaluated (Caine, 1980; Canuti et<br />
al., 1985; Fleming et al., 1989; Mainali <strong>and</strong><br />
Rajaratnam, 1994; Anderson, 1995; Cruden <strong>and</strong><br />
Varnes, 1996; Finlay et al., 1997; Crosta, 1998;<br />
Crozier, 1999; Dai et al., 1999; Glade, 2000;<br />
Alcantara-Ayala, 2004; Fiorillo <strong>and</strong> Wilson, 2004;<br />
Lan et al., 2004; Malet et al., 2005; Wen <strong>and</strong><br />
Aydin, 2005). L<strong>and</strong>slides may mobilise to <strong>for</strong>m<br />
debris flows by three processes: (a) widespread<br />
Coulomb failure within a sloping soil, rock, or<br />
sediment mass, (b) partial or complete liquefaction<br />
of the mass by high pore-fluid pressure, <strong>and</strong> (c)<br />
conversion of l<strong>and</strong>slide translational energy to<br />
internal vibrational energy (Iverson et al., 1997).
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 52<br />
Seite 53<br />
Rockfall is one of the most common mass<br />
movement processes in mountain regions <strong>and</strong> is<br />
defined as the free falling, bouncing or rolling<br />
of individual or a few rocks <strong>and</strong> boulders, with<br />
volumes involved generally being < 5 m 3 (Berger<br />
et al., 2002). Numerous studies exist concerning<br />
various aspects of rockfall, such as the dynamic<br />
behaviour (Ritchie, 1963; Erismann, 1986; Azzoni<br />
et al., 1995), boulder reaction during ground<br />
contact (Bozzolo et al., 1986; Hungr <strong>and</strong> Evans,<br />
1988; Evans <strong>and</strong> Hungr, 1993), or runout distances<br />
of falling rocks (Kirkby <strong>and</strong> Statham, 1975; Statham<br />
<strong>and</strong> Francis, 1986; Okura et al., 2000). Much<br />
research was also done on the possible triggers<br />
of rockfall, such as freeze-thaw cycles (Gardner,<br />
1983; Matsuoka <strong>and</strong> Sakai, 1999; Matsuoka,<br />
2006), changes in the rock-moisture level (Sass,<br />
2005), the thawing of permafrost (Gruber et al.,<br />
2004), the increase of mean annual temperatures<br />
(Davies et al., 2001), tectonic folding (Coe <strong>and</strong><br />
Harp, 2007) or the occurrence of earthquakes<br />
(Harp <strong>and</strong> Wilson, 1995; Marzorati et al., 2002).<br />
In addition, several studies exist on the long-term<br />
accretion rates of rockfall (Luckman <strong>and</strong> Fiske,<br />
1995; McCarroll et al., 1998). Furthermore, since<br />
the late 1980s, the field of numeric modelling<br />
has become a major topic in the field of rockfall<br />
research (Zinggerle, 1989; Guzzetti et al., 2002;<br />
Dorren et al., 2006; Stoffel et al., 2006).<br />
3. Numerical approaches to l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong><br />
According to Van Westen (1993), the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> methods have been divided<br />
into four groups of analysis. We’ve added an<br />
additional group – Artificial Neural Networks. The<br />
selection of one method over another depends on<br />
several factors (the data costs <strong>and</strong> availability, the<br />
scale, the output requirements, the geological <strong>and</strong><br />
geomorphological conditions, the tectonogenetic<br />
<strong>and</strong> morphogenetic behaviour of the l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
<strong>and</strong> computing capabilities of software <strong>and</strong><br />
hardware tools).<br />
Firstly, inventory analysis, which are<br />
based on the analysis of the spatial <strong>and</strong> temporal<br />
distribution of l<strong>and</strong>slide attributes <strong>and</strong> such<br />
inventories are the basis of most susceptibility<br />
mapping techniques. On detailed l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventory maps, the basic in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong><br />
evaluating <strong>and</strong> reducing l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>s on<br />
a regional or local level may be provided. Such<br />
maps include the state of activity, certainty of<br />
identification, dominant type of slope movement,<br />
primary direction, <strong>and</strong> estimated thickness of<br />
material involved in l<strong>and</strong>slides, <strong>and</strong> the dates of<br />
known activity <strong>for</strong> each l<strong>and</strong>slide (Wieczorek,<br />
1984).<br />
Secondly, the popular heuristic analysis<br />
(Castellanos <strong>and</strong> van Westen, 2003; R2 Resource<br />
Consultants, 2005; Ruff <strong>and</strong> Czurda, 2007;<br />
Firdaini, 2008) based on expert criteria with<br />
different <strong>assessment</strong> methods. The l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventory map is accompanied with preparatory<br />
factors to be the main input <strong>for</strong> determining<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> zoning. Experts then define the<br />
weighting value <strong>for</strong> each factor.<br />
Many researchers utilize statistical<br />
analysis (Neul<strong>and</strong>, 1976; Carrara, 1983; Pike,<br />
1988; Carrarra et al., 1991; van Westen, 1993;<br />
Chung & Fabbri, 1999; Gorsevski et al., 2000;<br />
Dhakal et al., 2000; Zhou et al., 2003; Saha et al.,<br />
2005; Guinau et al., 2007; Komac <strong>and</strong> Ribičič,<br />
2008; Magliulo et al., 2008; Miller <strong>and</strong> Burnett,<br />
2008; Pozzoni et al., 2009; Komac et al., 2010),<br />
where several parameter maps are surveyed to<br />
apply bivariate <strong>and</strong> multivariate analysis. The<br />
key of this method is the l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory map<br />
when the past l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrences are needed<br />
to <strong>for</strong>ecast future l<strong>and</strong>slide areas.<br />
The next approach is deterministic<br />
analysis (van Westen, 1994; Terlien et al., 1995;<br />
van Westen <strong>and</strong> Terlien, 1996; Soeters <strong>and</strong> Westen,<br />
1996; van Asch et al., 1999; Zaitchik et al., 2003;<br />
Mazengarb, 2004; Schmidt <strong>and</strong> Dikau, 2004;<br />
Mayer et al., 2010), which is based on hydrological<br />
<strong>and</strong> slope instability models to evaluate the safety<br />
factor. Montgomery et al. (1994, 1998 <strong>and</strong> 2000)<br />
have attributed a great importance to precipitation<br />
<strong>and</strong> many other investigations have also been<br />
carried out about the relationship between rainfall<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides (Crozier, 1999; Lida, 1999; Dai<br />
<strong>and</strong> Lee, 2001; Guzzetti et al., 2007). For rainfall<br />
induced failures, these models couple shallow<br />
subsurface flow caused by rainfalls of various<br />
return periods, predicted soil thickness <strong>and</strong> soil<br />
mantle l<strong>and</strong>slides. Numerous studies have used<br />
rainfall characteristics, such as duration, intensity,<br />
maximum <strong>and</strong> antecedent rainfall during a<br />
particular period, to identify the threshold value <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide initiation. Many authors (Caine, 1980;<br />
Caine <strong>and</strong> Mool, 1982; Brabb, 1984; Cannon<br />
<strong>and</strong> Ellen, 1985; Jakob <strong>and</strong> Weatherly, 2003)<br />
applied the rainfall intensity duration equation<br />
to estimate the threshold. With regard to specific<br />
rainfall characteristics, Wieczorek <strong>and</strong> Sarmiento<br />
(1983) used total rainfall duration be<strong>for</strong>e specific<br />
rainfall intensity occurs; Govi et al. (1985) applied<br />
total rainfall during a specific period after rainfall<br />
starts; <strong>and</strong> Crozier (1986) utilized the ratio of<br />
total rainfall to antecedent rainfall. Guzzetti et<br />
al. (2004) identified the local rainfall threshold<br />
on the basis of local rainfall <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide record<br />
<strong>and</strong> concluded that l<strong>and</strong>slide activity in Northern<br />
Italy initiates 8-10 hours after the beginning of a<br />
storm. However, many other investigations have<br />
been published about the relationship between<br />
rainfall <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> attribute a large<br />
impact to precipitation <strong>for</strong> the time duration of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides (Carrara, 1991; Mongomery et al.,<br />
1994, 1998; Terlien et al., 1995; Crozier, 1999;<br />
Laprade et al., 2000; Alcantara-Ayala, 2004; Coe<br />
et al., 2004; Fiorillo <strong>and</strong> Wilson, 2004; Lan et al.,<br />
2004; Wen <strong>and</strong> Aydin, 2005; Zezere et al., 2005;<br />
Giannecchini, 2006; Jakob et at., 2006). While<br />
some of them deal with specific cases, others are<br />
more concerned with the statistical relationship<br />
<strong>for</strong> creating correlations models <strong>and</strong> even produce<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasting models based on rainfall threshold<br />
values.<br />
One of the relatively new methods<br />
applied to l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> susceptibility<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> are artificial neural network (ANN)<br />
tools. ANN is a useful approach <strong>for</strong> problems<br />
such as regression <strong>and</strong> classification, since it<br />
has the capability of analyzing complex data<br />
at varied scales such as continuous, categorical<br />
<strong>and</strong> binary data. The concept of ANN is based on<br />
learning <strong>for</strong>m data with known characteristics to<br />
derive a set of weighting parameters which are<br />
used subsequently to recognize the unseen data<br />
(Horton, 1945).<br />
Lee et al. (2003b) developed l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility analysis techniques using a multilayered<br />
perception (MLP) network. The results<br />
were verified by ranking the susceptibility index<br />
in classes of equal area <strong>and</strong> showed satisfactory<br />
agreement between the susceptibility map <strong>and</strong><br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slide location data. Lee et al. (2003a)<br />
obtained l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility by using neural<br />
network models <strong>and</strong> compared neural models with<br />
probabilistic <strong>and</strong> statistical ones. They also show a<br />
combination of ANN <strong>for</strong> determination of weights<br />
used spatial probabilities to create a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility index map (Lee et al., 2004). Rainfall<br />
<strong>and</strong> earthquake scenarios as triggering factors <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides have been used in <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
with ANNs (Lee <strong>and</strong> Evangelista, 2006; Wang <strong>and</strong><br />
Sassa, 2006). Several studies recognize ANN as a<br />
promising tool <strong>for</strong> these applications <strong>and</strong> most of<br />
them use a Multi layer Perceptron (MLP) network<br />
<strong>and</strong> a back propagation algorithm <strong>for</strong> training<br />
the network (Rumelhart et al., 1986; Arora et<br />
al., 2004; Ercanoglu, 2005; Ermini et al., 2005;
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 54<br />
Seite 55<br />
Numerical approach Basic description of approach References<br />
Inventory analysis<br />
Heuristic analysis<br />
Statistical analysis<br />
Deterministic analysis<br />
rainfall<br />
Artificial neural<br />
network (ANN)<br />
Analysis of the spatial <strong>and</strong><br />
temporal distribution of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide attributes<br />
Based on expert criteria with<br />
different <strong>assessment</strong> methods<br />
Several parameter maps are<br />
surveyed to apply bivariate<br />
<strong>and</strong> multivariate analysis<br />
Apply hydrological <strong>and</strong> slope<br />
instability models to evaluate<br />
the safety factor<br />
Use rainfall characteristic to<br />
identify the threshold value <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide initiation<br />
Learning from data with<br />
known characteristics to derive<br />
a set of weighting parameters,<br />
which are used subsequently<br />
to recognize the unseen data<br />
Wieczorek (1984)<br />
Castellanos <strong>and</strong> van Westen (2003);<br />
R2 Resource Consultants (2005); Ruff <strong>and</strong><br />
Czurda (2007); Firdaini (2008)<br />
Neul<strong>and</strong> (1976); Carrara (1983); Pike<br />
(1988); Carrarra et al. (1991); van Westen<br />
(1993); Chung <strong>and</strong> Fabbri (1999); Gorsevski<br />
et al. (2000); Dhakal et al. (2000); Zhou et<br />
al. (2003); Saha et al. (2005); Guinau et al.<br />
(2007); Komac <strong>and</strong> Ribičič (2008); Magliulo<br />
et al. (2008); Miller <strong>and</strong> Burnett (2008);<br />
Pozzoni et al. (2009); Komac et al. (2010)<br />
van Westen (1994); Terlien et al. (1995);<br />
van Westen <strong>and</strong> Terlien (1996); Soeters<br />
<strong>and</strong> Westen (1996); van Asch et al. (1999);<br />
Zaitchik et al. (2003); Mazengarb (2004);<br />
Schmidt <strong>and</strong> Dikau (2004); Mayer et al. (2010)<br />
Caine (1980); Caine <strong>and</strong> Mool (1982);<br />
Wieczorek <strong>and</strong> Sarmiento (1983); Brabb<br />
(1984); Cannon <strong>and</strong> Ellen (1985); Govi et<br />
al. (1985); Crozier (1986); Carrara (1991);<br />
Terlien et al. (1995); Montgomery et al.<br />
(1994, 1998 <strong>and</strong> 2000); Crozier (1999);<br />
Lida (1999); Laprade et al. (2000); Dai<br />
<strong>and</strong> Lee (2001); Jakob <strong>and</strong> Weatherly<br />
(2003); Alcantara-Ayala (2004); Coe et<br />
al. (2004); Fiorillo <strong>and</strong> Wilson (2004);<br />
Guzzetti et al. (2004); Lan et al. (2004);<br />
Zezere et al. (2005); Wen <strong>and</strong> Aydin (2005);<br />
Giannecchini (2006); Jakob et al. (2006);<br />
Guzzetti et al. (2007)<br />
Horton (1945); Rumelhart et al. (1986);<br />
Ercanoglu <strong>and</strong> Gokceoglu (2002); Lee et al.<br />
(2003a); Lee et al. (2003b); Lu (2003); Arora<br />
et al. (2004); Lee et al. (2004); Neaupane <strong>and</strong><br />
Achet (2004); Catani et al. (2005); Ercanoglu<br />
(2005); Ermini et al. (2005); Gomez <strong>and</strong><br />
Kavzoglu (2005); Miska <strong>and</strong> Jan (2005); Wang<br />
et al. (2005); Yesilnacar <strong>and</strong> Topal (2005);<br />
Kanungo et al. (2006); Lee <strong>and</strong> Evangelista<br />
(2006); Lui et al. (2006); Melchiorre et al.<br />
(2006, 2008); Wang <strong>and</strong> Sassa (2006); Lee<br />
(2007); Pradhan <strong>and</strong> Lee (2007,2009a, 2009b,<br />
2009c); Nefeslioglu et al. (2008); Pradhan et<br />
al. (2009); Youssef et al. (2009)<br />
Tab. 2: Review of numerical approaches to l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> with short description of approach <strong>and</strong> references.<br />
Tab. 2: Überprüfung von numerischen Ansätzen zur Gefahrenabschätzung von Rutschungen mit einer kurzen Darstellung des Ansatzes<br />
und Referenzen.<br />
Gomez <strong>and</strong> Kavzoglu, 2005; Wang et al., 2005;<br />
Pradhan <strong>and</strong> Lee, 2007, 2009a, 2009b, 2009c;<br />
Pradhan et al., 2009; Youssef et al., 2009). Ermini<br />
et al. (2005) <strong>and</strong> Catani et al. (2005) used unique<br />
conditions units <strong>for</strong> the terrain unit definition in<br />
ANNs analysis. More critical analyses compare<br />
ANN techniques with other methods such as<br />
logistic regression, fuzzy weighing <strong>and</strong> other<br />
statistical methods (Ercanoglu <strong>and</strong> Gokceoglu,<br />
2002; Lu, 2003; Neaupane <strong>and</strong> Achet, 2004;<br />
Miska <strong>and</strong> Jan, 2005; Yesilnacar <strong>and</strong> Topal, 2005;<br />
Kanungo et al., 2006; Lee, 2007). In the neural<br />
network method, Nefeslioglu et al. (2008) showed<br />
that ANNs give a more optimistic evaluation of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility than logistic regression<br />
analysis. Melchiorre et al. (2006) did further<br />
research on the behaviour of a network with<br />
respect to errors in the conditioning factors by<br />
per<strong>for</strong>ming a robustness analysis <strong>and</strong> Melchiorre<br />
et al. (2008) improved the predictive capability<br />
<strong>and</strong> robustness of ANNs by introducing a cluster<br />
analysis. Neaupane <strong>and</strong> Achet (2004) used<br />
ANN <strong>for</strong> monitoring the movement. Moreover,<br />
Kanungo et al. (2006) showed that a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility map derived from combined<br />
neural <strong>and</strong> fuzzy weighting procedure is the best<br />
amongst the other weighting techniques. Lui et<br />
al. (2006) assessed the l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> using<br />
ANNs <strong>for</strong> a specific l<strong>and</strong>slide typology (debris<br />
flow), considering among the triggering factors<br />
frequency of flooding, covariance of monthly<br />
precipitation, <strong>and</strong> days with rainfall higher than a<br />
critical threshold.<br />
4. Approaches to l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
The l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong> is a<br />
particular step in the l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> is usually based on the comparison of<br />
the previously surveyed l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> the<br />
conditional or preparatory causal factors. With<br />
this combination a GIS is obtained in a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility map. In susceptibility analyses,<br />
triggering causal factors are often not considered.<br />
Some research has been done specifically related<br />
to the l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong> (Lee et<br />
al., 2003; Sirangelo <strong>and</strong> Braca, 2004; Guzzetti<br />
et al., 2006). Several countries have published<br />
national l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps that are<br />
based on their national l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory<br />
(Brabb et al., 1999; Guzzetti, 2000; Komac <strong>and</strong><br />
Ribičič, 2008). One of the proven techniques <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong> is the weights<br />
of evidence (WofE) modelling. Many l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility have been carried out using this<br />
method (van Westen, 1993; Fern<strong>and</strong>ez, 2003; van<br />
Westen et al., 2003; Lee <strong>and</strong> Choi, 2004; Suzen<br />
<strong>and</strong> Doyuran, 2004; Neuhauser <strong>and</strong> Terhorst,<br />
2007; Magliulo et al., 2008). Essentially, the<br />
WofE method is a bivariate statistical technique<br />
that calculates the spatial probability <strong>and</strong> odds of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides given a certain variable.<br />
Many investigations have included<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide runout in the analyses <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>. With research on l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
runout or travel distance started in mid Nineties<br />
of the last century (Hungr, 1995; Finlay et al.,<br />
1999; Chen <strong>and</strong> Lee, 2000; Okura et al., 2000;<br />
Fannin <strong>and</strong> Wise, 2001; Wang et al., 2002; Crosta<br />
et al., 2003; Hunter <strong>and</strong> Fell, 2003; Bertolo <strong>and</strong><br />
Wieczorek, 2005; Hungr et al., 2005; Malet et<br />
al., 2005; Crosta et al., 2006; van Asch et al.,<br />
2006; Pirulli et al., 2007; van Asch et al., 2007a;<br />
van Asch, et al., 2007b) where authors use three<br />
types of approaches <strong>for</strong> runout analysis. These are<br />
the empirical approach from previous l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
<strong>and</strong> geomorphological analysis, the deterministic<br />
approach from the geotechnical parameters <strong>and</strong><br />
the dynamic approach from numerical modelling<br />
of runout.
Key-note papers<br />
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L<strong>and</strong>slide vulnerability <strong>assessment</strong> is a<br />
fundamental component in the evaluation<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slide risk (Leone et al., 1996). Most<br />
publications about vulnerability are related to<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk <strong>assessment</strong> (Mejia-Navarro et al.,<br />
1994; Leone et al., 1996; Ragozin <strong>and</strong> Tikhvinsky,<br />
2000; van Westen, 2002; Hollenstein, 2005). The<br />
main object of these investigations determined<br />
the elements of risk which have impact on<br />
structures on its surface <strong>and</strong> estimate the cost.<br />
The vulnerability maps are expressed with values<br />
between 0 <strong>and</strong> 1, where 0 means no damage <strong>and</strong><br />
1 means total loss. Generally, the vulnerability<br />
to l<strong>and</strong>slides may depend on runout distance;<br />
volume <strong>and</strong> velocity of sliding; elements at risk<br />
(buildings <strong>and</strong> other structures), their nature <strong>and</strong><br />
their proximity to the slide; <strong>and</strong> the elements<br />
at risk (person), their proximity to the slide, the<br />
nature of the building/road that they are in, <strong>and</strong><br />
where they are in the building, on the road, etc<br />
(Finlay, 1996).<br />
The aim of l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> studies is to protect the population,<br />
the economy <strong>and</strong> environment against potential<br />
damage caused by l<strong>and</strong>slides (Crozier <strong>and</strong> Glade,<br />
2005). Risk in this context, is seen as a disaster<br />
that could happen in the future. The total risk<br />
map could be obtained by combining <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
vulnerability <strong>and</strong> made directly or specific risk or<br />
consequence maps can be created <strong>and</strong> analyzed<br />
in order to achieve some preliminary conclusions.<br />
The classification of the l<strong>and</strong>slide risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
is still in progress. At the moment the classification<br />
is based on the level of quantification dividing the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide risk <strong>assessment</strong> methods in qualitative,<br />
semi-qualitative <strong>and</strong> quantitative (AGS, 2000;<br />
Powell, 2000; Walker 2000; Chowdhury <strong>and</strong><br />
Flentje, 2003).<br />
The qualitative l<strong>and</strong>slide risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
approach is based on the experience of the experts<br />
<strong>and</strong> the risk areas are categorized generally in<br />
three or five classes as very high, high, moderate,<br />
low <strong>and</strong> very low. This method is applicable <strong>for</strong><br />
spatial analysis using GIS <strong>and</strong> usually applied at<br />
national or regional levels. This approach were<br />
found in literature from Lateltin (1997), AGS<br />
(2000), Budetta (2004), Cascini (2004), Ko Ko et<br />
al. (2004), IADB (2005), Nadim et al. (2006).<br />
With the semi-qualitative l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
risk <strong>assessment</strong> approach, weights are assigned<br />
under certain criteria, which provide numbers<br />
as outcome, instead of qualitative classes<br />
(0-1, 0-10 or 0-100). It could be applicable to<br />
any scale, but more reasonably used at medium<br />
scale. Semi-quantitative approach efficiently uses<br />
spatial multi-criteria techniques implemented in<br />
GIS that facilitate st<strong>and</strong>ardization, weighting <strong>and</strong><br />
data integration in a single set of tools. More<br />
details about the weighting system are published<br />
by Br<strong>and</strong> (1988), Koirala <strong>and</strong> Watkins (1988),<br />
Chowdhury <strong>and</strong> Flentje (2003), Blochl <strong>and</strong><br />
Braun (2005), Castellanos Abella <strong>and</strong> van Westen<br />
(2005) <strong>and</strong> Saldivar-Sail <strong>and</strong> Einstein (2007).<br />
When implementing the semi-quantitative<br />
model, usually the multi-criteria evaluation is<br />
used (see references below). The input is a set<br />
of maps that are the spatial representation on<br />
the criteria, which are grouped, st<strong>and</strong>ardised<br />
<strong>and</strong> weighted in a criteria tree. Meanwhile the<br />
output is one or more composite index maps<br />
indicating the completion of the model used.<br />
The theoretical background <strong>for</strong> the multicriteria<br />
evaluation is based on the Analytical<br />
Hierarchical Process (AHP) developed by Saaty<br />
(1977). The AHP has been extensively applied<br />
on decision making problems (Saaty <strong>and</strong> Vargas,<br />
2001). Recently some research has been carried<br />
out to apply AHP to l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> (Barredo et al., 2000; Mwasi,<br />
2001; Nie et al., 2001, Wu <strong>and</strong> Chen, 2009).<br />
Komac (2006) designed multivariate statistical<br />
processing techniques in order to obtain several<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility models with data at scale<br />
1:50,000 <strong>and</strong> 1:100,000. Based on the statistical<br />
results, several l<strong>and</strong>slides susceptibility maps<br />
were created.<br />
Quantitative l<strong>and</strong>slide risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
has been used <strong>for</strong> specific slopes or very small<br />
areas using probabilistic methods or percentage<br />
of losses expected (Whitman, 1984; Chowdhury,<br />
1988). Probabilistic values (0-1) are obtained<br />
at the expense of a certain amount of monetary<br />
or human loss. Quantitative risk analysis <strong>and</strong><br />
consequent <strong>assessment</strong> uses in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> probability, values of elements at risk<br />
<strong>and</strong> their vulnerability. Among the quantitative<br />
approaches found in literature there are some<br />
basic similarities but also some differences<br />
between the approaches. They include either<br />
estimation of <strong>hazard</strong> or estimation of vulnerability<br />
<strong>and</strong> consequences (Morgan, 1992; Einstein, 1988,<br />
1997; Fell, 1994; Fell et al., 2005; Anderson et al.,<br />
1996; Ragozin, 1996; Ragozin <strong>and</strong> Tikhvinsky,<br />
2000; Lee <strong>and</strong> Jones, 2004; AGS, 2000).<br />
5. L<strong>and</strong>slide risk management<br />
At the end of the <strong>assessment</strong> process when<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>and</strong> risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
have been identified, results <strong>and</strong> measures<br />
obtained should or may be included into the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide risk management process governed<br />
by decision makers to mitigate l<strong>and</strong>slide risk of<br />
the community or, at this level, several further<br />
approaches are possible. The strategies may<br />
be grouped into planning control, engineering<br />
solution, acceptance, <strong>and</strong> monitoring or warning<br />
systems. The risk assessed can be compared<br />
with the acceptance criteria to decide upon the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide mitigation measures required.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide (or any natural <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>for</strong> that matter)<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> process is just one of several steps in<br />
the (L<strong>and</strong>slide) Risk Management Cycle (RMC),<br />
which doesn’t end at the stage where results of<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> process are included in the RMC. RMC<br />
is a live system where each measure/provision<br />
results in a consequence(s) that influence(s)<br />
further development in <strong>and</strong> steps of this cycle. In<br />
a way we could define it as a spiral rather than as<br />
a circular process since the same position is never<br />
reached again.<br />
6. Conclusion<br />
In this paper, different approaches <strong>for</strong> the evaluation<br />
of slope mass processes are reviewed. In general,<br />
all analyses are based on the assumption that<br />
historical l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> their causal relationships<br />
can be used to predict future ones (“past is a key<br />
to the future”). However, we can see that many<br />
researchers use different approaches to evaluate<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides, debris flow or rockfall <strong>hazard</strong> risk<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>, which mainly depend on data<br />
availability. In developing countries, usually the<br />
lack of financial support to produce risk <strong>assessment</strong><br />
maps <strong>for</strong> dangerous areas results in emphasis<br />
on remediation measures. Whereas in countries<br />
with high st<strong>and</strong>ards, the approach to the topic is<br />
focused into prevention <strong>and</strong> into remediation if<br />
disasters occur. In any event the obstacles related<br />
to the availability of data are smaller each day<br />
due to low-cost satellite in<strong>for</strong>mation, the use of<br />
SRTM, ASTER <strong>and</strong> Google Earth, which ease the<br />
creation of l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory databases, a basis<br />
<strong>for</strong> any further <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>s. The l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventory map is probably the most important data<br />
set to work on <strong>for</strong> producing a reliable prediction<br />
map of spatial <strong>and</strong> temporal probability <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides or other slope mass movements <strong>and</strong> a<br />
necessity <strong>for</strong> any type of analyses.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 58<br />
Seite 59<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Mateja Jemec<br />
Dimičeva ulica 14<br />
SI – 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia<br />
mateja.jemec@geo-zs.si<br />
Marko Komac<br />
Dimičeva ulica 14<br />
SI – 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia<br />
marko.komac@geo-zs.si<br />
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VAN WESTEN, C.J., CASTELLANOS ABELLA, E.A. AND SEKHAR, L.K.,<br />
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VARNES, D.J., 1978.<br />
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Special Report No. 176, National Academy of Sciences, pp. 11-33.<br />
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L<strong>and</strong>slide Hazard Zonation: a rewiev of principles <strong>and</strong> practise. UNESCO,<br />
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WALKER, B.F., 2002.<br />
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WANG, F.W., SASSA, K. AND WANG, G., 2002.<br />
Mechanism of a long runout l<strong>and</strong>slide triggered by the August 1998 heavy<br />
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WANG, H.B. AND SASSA, K., 2006.<br />
Rainfall-induced l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> using artificial neural<br />
networks. Earth Surface Processes <strong>and</strong> L<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>ms, 31(2):235-247.<br />
WANG, H.B., XU, W.Y. AND XU, R.C., 2005, Slope stability evaluation<br />
using Back Propagation Neural Networks. Engineering Geology, 80 (3-4),<br />
302-315.<br />
WEN, B. P. AND AYDIN, A., 2005.<br />
Mechanism of a rainfall-induced slide-debris flow: constraints from<br />
microstructure of its slip zone, Engineering Geology, 78: 69–88.<br />
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Geotechnical Engineering, 110(2), 145-188.<br />
WIECZOREK, G.F., 1984.<br />
Preparing a detailed l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory map <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> evaluation <strong>and</strong><br />
reduction. Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists, XXI (3):<br />
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M.F., 2009.<br />
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ROLAND NORER<br />
Legal Framework <strong>for</strong> Assessment <strong>and</strong> Mapping<br />
of Geological Hazards on the International,<br />
European <strong>and</strong> National Levels<br />
Rechtlicher Rahmen für Analyse und Kartierung<br />
geologischer Gefahren auf internationaler,<br />
europäischer und nationaler Ebene<br />
Summary:<br />
Legal st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s are rather scarce at<br />
the international <strong>and</strong> European level. Certain protocols to the <strong>Alpine</strong> Convention provide <strong>for</strong><br />
the obligation to map geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, but they fail to adopt substantive st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>for</strong> it.<br />
At a European level, st<strong>and</strong>ards such as those <strong>for</strong> priority areas are only provided <strong>for</strong> in drafts<br />
such as the proposal <strong>for</strong> a Directive establishing a framework <strong>for</strong> the protection of soil or are<br />
mentioned in the Communication on the Community approach to prevent natural disasters.<br />
At a national level, there are legal provisions in connection with preventive planning on<br />
natural disasters, although the general problem on the coexistence of multiple area-related<br />
definitions persists. The extensive exposition of <strong>hazard</strong>s in <strong>for</strong>estry law remains a central issue.<br />
The sources <strong>and</strong> materials encountered to this end are, however, not enough to derivate<br />
consistent st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> provisions <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping.<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Rechtliche Vorgaben betreffend Analyse und Kartierung geologischer Gefahren sind sowohl<br />
auf internationaler als auch europäischer Ebene selten. Bestimmte Protokolle zur Alpenkonvention<br />
sehen Kartierungspflichten für geologische Risiken vor, ohne allerdings materielle<br />
Vorgaben zu treffen. Im Europarecht finden sich solche Regeln lediglich in Entwürfen wie bei<br />
den prioritären Gebieten im Vorschlag einer EU-Bodenrahmenrichtlinie oder sie werden wie<br />
im Gemeinschaftskonzept zur Verhütung von Naturkatastrophen erst in Aussicht gestellt.<br />
Auf nationaler Ebene bestehen in der Regel Rechtsvorschriften im Zusammenhang mit<br />
präventiven Planungen bei Naturgefahren, wenngleich das allgemeine Problem des Nebenein<strong>and</strong>ers<br />
von mehreren gebietsbezogenen Festlegungen besteht. Als zentrale Vorschriften<br />
gelten die flächenhaften Gefahrendarstellungen im Forstrecht. Das vorgefundene Material<br />
reicht jedenfalls nicht aus, um einheitliche St<strong>and</strong>ards und Vorgaben für Analyse und Kartierung<br />
ableiten zu können.<br />
1. Introduction<br />
A glance at the legal framework on <strong>assessment</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> mapping of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s 1 is difficult.<br />
No coherent legal system on the<br />
management of natural disasters can be found at<br />
either the international or European level. Also, a<br />
legal fragmentation can be detected at a national<br />
level. There<strong>for</strong>e, the art is to filter something like<br />
a legal essence out of diverse dispersed norms,<br />
which are often only partly related to this topic<br />
<strong>and</strong> follow different legal approaches. 2 This will<br />
be the attempt in the following sections. Naturally,<br />
the essay will not exceed a more or less abundant<br />
outline of the issue.<br />
2. International law<br />
2.1. <strong>Alpine</strong> Convention<br />
The <strong>Alpine</strong> Convention 3 <strong>and</strong> its protocols<br />
are the only source of international law. The<br />
“Soil Conservation Protocol” 4 provides <strong>for</strong> the<br />
obligation to draw up maps of <strong>Alpine</strong> areas “which<br />
are endangered by geological, hydrogeological<br />
<strong>and</strong> hydrological risks, in particular by l<strong>and</strong><br />
movement (mass slides, mudslides, l<strong>and</strong>slides),<br />
avalanches <strong>and</strong> floods”, <strong>and</strong> to register those areas<br />
<strong>and</strong> to designate danger zones when necessary<br />
(art. 10.1).<br />
Likewise, areas damaged by erosion <strong>and</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong> movement shall be rehabilitated in as far<br />
as this is necessary <strong>for</strong> the protection of human<br />
beings <strong>and</strong> material goods (art. 11.2).<br />
1<br />
For the “Natural <strong>hazard</strong>s profile“ of l<strong>and</strong>slips, rock fall, avalanches<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides, see RUDOLF-MIKLAU, Naturgefahren-<br />
Management in Österreich (2009), p. 21 et seq.<br />
2<br />
For an overview regarding norms of prevention, see RUDOLF-<br />
MIKLAU (fn. 1), p. 97 et seq.<br />
3<br />
BGBl. 1995/477.<br />
4<br />
BGBl. III 2002/235.<br />
Both provisions were classified as binding <strong>and</strong><br />
directly applicable. 5<br />
In addition, the “Mountain Forests<br />
Protocol” 6 aims to preserve <strong>and</strong>, whenever<br />
necessary, to develop or increase mountain <strong>for</strong>ests<br />
as a near-natural habitat (art. 1.1) <strong>and</strong> imposes the<br />
duty of the Contracting Parties to give priority to the<br />
protective function of mountain <strong>for</strong>ests (art. 6.1).<br />
The “Spatial Planning <strong>and</strong> Sustainable<br />
Development Protocol“ 7 establishes the obligation<br />
to determine the areas subject to natural <strong>hazard</strong>s,<br />
where building of structures <strong>and</strong> installations<br />
should be avoided as much as possible (art.<br />
9.2.e). The spatial planning policies also take<br />
into account the protection of the environment,<br />
in particular with regard to the protection against<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (art. 3.f).<br />
2.2. Findings<br />
In international law, only certain provisions<br />
established in the protocols to the <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
Convention refer to the obligation to map<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. But farther-reaching,<br />
additional substantive elaborations arising out of<br />
these duties are not revealed be<strong>for</strong>e the respective<br />
national implementation measures.<br />
3. European law<br />
3.1. Soil protection law<br />
The communication from the European<br />
Commission in 2002 about a Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil<br />
Protection 8 aims at the further development of<br />
5<br />
BMLFUW (ed.), Die Alpenkonvention: H<strong>and</strong>buch für ihre<br />
Umsetzung (2007), p. 112. Implementation analysis by<br />
SCHMID, Das Natur- und Bodenschutzrecht der Alpenkonvention.<br />
Anwendungsmöglichkeiten und Beispiele, in: CIPRA<br />
Österreich (ed.), Die Alpenkonvention und ihre rechtliche<br />
Umsetzung in Österreich – St<strong>and</strong> 2009, Tagungsb<strong>and</strong> der<br />
Jahrestagung von CIPRA Österreich, 21.-22.Oktober 2009,<br />
Salzburg (2010), p. 33 et seq.<br />
6<br />
BGBl. III 2002/233.<br />
7<br />
BGBl. III 2002/232..
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political commitment to soil protection in order<br />
to achieve a more comprehensive <strong>and</strong> systematic<br />
protection. As soil <strong>for</strong>mation is an extremely slow<br />
process, soil can essentially be considered as a<br />
non-renewable resource. 9 It proceeds to mention<br />
eight main threats to soil in the EU 10 , including<br />
“erosion” <strong>and</strong> “floods <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides”. These are<br />
intimately related to soil <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> management.<br />
“Floods <strong>and</strong> mass movements of soil cause<br />
erosion, pollution with sediments <strong>and</strong> loss of soil<br />
resources with major impacts <strong>for</strong> human activities<br />
<strong>and</strong> human lives, damage to buildings <strong>and</strong><br />
infrastructures, <strong>and</strong> loss of agricultural l<strong>and</strong>”. 11<br />
In 2006, the European Commission followed<br />
suit with a Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil Protection 12<br />
<strong>and</strong> with a Proposal <strong>for</strong> a Directive establishing<br />
a framework <strong>for</strong> the protection of soil 13 , the latter<br />
of which provides in its art. 6 <strong>for</strong> priority areas<br />
(first draft: risk areas) with regard to l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
The addendum l<strong>and</strong>slides “brought about by the<br />
down-slope, moderately rapid to rapid movement<br />
of masses of soil <strong>and</strong> rock material” fell victim to<br />
the changes made by the European Parliament. 14<br />
Also, a programme of measures shall be adopted<br />
within five years of the implementation of the<br />
Directive (art. 8). A list of common elements <strong>for</strong><br />
the identification of areas at risk of l<strong>and</strong>slides can<br />
be found in the appendix. 15<br />
8<br />
Communication from the Commission to the Council, the<br />
European Parliament, the Economic <strong>and</strong> Social Committee <strong>and</strong><br />
the Committee of the Regions – Towards a Thematic Strategy<br />
<strong>for</strong> Soil Protection, COM(2002) 179 final.<br />
9<br />
Communication from the Commission to the Council, the<br />
European Parliament, the Economic <strong>and</strong> Social Committee<br />
<strong>and</strong> the Committee of the Regions – Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil<br />
Protection, COM(2006) 231 final, Section 1.<br />
10<br />
Towards a Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil Protection (fn. 8),<br />
Section 3.<br />
11<br />
Towards a Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil Protection (fn. 8),<br />
Section 3.8.<br />
12<br />
Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil Protection (fn. 9).<br />
13<br />
Proposal <strong>for</strong> a Directive of the European Parliament <strong>and</strong> of<br />
the Council establishing a Framework <strong>for</strong> the Protection of Soil<br />
<strong>and</strong> amending Directive 2004/35/EC, COM(2006) 232 final.2..<br />
14<br />
European Parliament legislative resolution of 14 November<br />
2007 on the proposal <strong>for</strong> a directive of the European<br />
Parliament <strong>and</strong> of the Council establishing a framework <strong>for</strong><br />
the protection of soil <strong>and</strong> amending Directive 2004/35/EC,<br />
P6_TA(2007)0509.<br />
15<br />
Annex I Section 5: soil typological unit (soil type), properties,<br />
occurrence <strong>and</strong> density of l<strong>and</strong>slides, bedrock, topography,<br />
l<strong>and</strong> cover, l<strong>and</strong> use (including l<strong>and</strong> management, farming<br />
systems <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>estry), climate <strong>and</strong> seismic risk.<br />
In particular, the EU Directive establishing a<br />
Framework <strong>for</strong> the Protection of Soil turned out<br />
to be fiercely disputed. 16 Since 2007, after an<br />
attenuated version failed to obtain the majority<br />
in the EU Environment Council, the future of this<br />
proposal remains uncertain.<br />
3.2. Environmental law<br />
In the remaining European environmental laws,<br />
certain provisions about erosion can be found. 17<br />
However, there are no further provisions dealing<br />
with the topic of this essay.<br />
3.3. Agricultural law<br />
The situation is rather similar in the area of<br />
European agricultural law. Different st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
are included in the general provisions on direct<br />
payments (cross compliance) 18 , in which there is<br />
an obligation to maintain all agricultural l<strong>and</strong> in<br />
good agricultural <strong>and</strong> environmental condition,<br />
such as those regarding soil erosion. 19 In contrast,<br />
the regulation on support <strong>for</strong> rural development 20<br />
includes in its Axis 2 some links with supporting<br />
measures, such as af<strong>for</strong>estation (cf. art. 50.6). 21<br />
16<br />
Cf. in detail NORER, Bodenschutzrecht im Kontext der europäischen<br />
Bodenschutzstrategie (2009), p. 17 et seq.<br />
17<br />
Like the Directive 2000/60/EC establishing a framework <strong>for</strong><br />
Community action in the field of water policy (“Wasserrahmenrichtlinie“),<br />
OJ 2000 L 327/1.<br />
18<br />
Art. 4 et seq. Council Regulation (EC) No. 73/2009 establishing<br />
common rules <strong>for</strong> direct support schemes <strong>for</strong> farmers<br />
under the common agricultural policy <strong>and</strong> establishing certain<br />
support schemes <strong>for</strong> farmers, OJ 2009 L 30/16.<br />
19<br />
Art. 6 in conjunction with Annex III Regulation (EC) 73/2009;<br />
§ 5.1 in conjunction with Annex INVEKOS-CC-V 2010, BGBl. II<br />
2009/492.<br />
20<br />
Council Regulation (EC) No. 1698/2005 on support <strong>for</strong> rural<br />
development by the European Agricultural Fund <strong>for</strong> Rural Development<br />
(EAFRD), OJ 2005 L 277/1.<br />
21<br />
Cf. Recital 32, 38, 41 <strong>and</strong> 44 Regulation (EC) 1698/2005. For<br />
Austrian implementation see Sonderrichtlinie zur Umsetzung<br />
der <strong>for</strong>stlichen und wasserbaulichen Maßnahmen im Rahmen<br />
des Österreichischen Programms für die Entwicklung des<br />
ländlichen Raums 2007 – 2013 „Wald & Wasser“, BMLFUW-<br />
LE.3.2.8/0054-IV/3/2007 idF BMLFUW-LE.3.2.8/0028-<br />
IV/3/2009.<br />
3.4. Spatial planning law<br />
Regarding the quantitative aspects of soil<br />
protection, a separate communication on the<br />
topic of “Planning <strong>and</strong> Environment – the<br />
Territorial Dimension” has been announced <strong>for</strong> a<br />
some time now. This communication should deal<br />
with rational l<strong>and</strong>-use planning, as addressed by<br />
the Sixth Environment Action Programme. 22 The<br />
announced content, however, does not refer to a<br />
special relevance <strong>for</strong> the prevention of l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
Hence, at present the only object of an integrated<br />
<strong>and</strong> sustainable management at the EU level is<br />
the flood prevention programme in transnational<br />
river areas included in the European Spatial<br />
Development Perspective (ESDP). 23<br />
3.5. Disaster law<br />
The Communication of the European Commission<br />
of February 2009 24 was another attempt to<br />
establish measures, based on the already existing<br />
instruments, <strong>for</strong> a Community approach on the<br />
prevention of natural <strong>and</strong> man-made disasters.<br />
Three key elements were mentioned <strong>for</strong><br />
the Community approach: creating the conditions<br />
<strong>for</strong> the development of knowledge based disaster<br />
prevention policies at all levels of government,<br />
linking the actors <strong>and</strong> policies throughout the<br />
disaster management cycle <strong>and</strong> making existing<br />
instruments per<strong>for</strong>m better <strong>for</strong> disaster prevention.<br />
In particular, the subsection “Developing<br />
guidelines on <strong>hazard</strong>/risk mapping” (3.1.3) is<br />
of great interest. Here, the Commission tries<br />
22<br />
Towards a Thematic Strategy <strong>for</strong> Soil Protection (fn. 8), Section<br />
2.1, 6.1.; REISCHAUER, Bodenschutzrecht, in: Norer (ed.),<br />
H<strong>and</strong>buch des Agrarrechts (2005), p. 491.<br />
23<br />
European Commission (ed.), ESDP European Spatial<br />
Development Perspective. Towards Balanced <strong>and</strong> Sustainable<br />
Development of the Territory of the European Union (1999),<br />
Section 146.<br />
24<br />
Communication from the Commission to the European<br />
Parliament, the Council, the European Economic ad Social<br />
Committee <strong>and</strong> the Committee of the Regions. A Community<br />
approach on the prevention of natural <strong>and</strong> man-made disasters,<br />
COM(2009) 82 final, 23.02.2009.<br />
to collect <strong>and</strong> unify in<strong>for</strong>mation about <strong>hazard</strong>/<br />
risks by developing Community guidelines <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk mapping, building upon existing<br />
Community initiatives. However, these should<br />
focus on disasters with potential cross-border<br />
impact, exceptional events, large-scale disasters,<br />
<strong>and</strong> disasters <strong>for</strong> which the cost of recovery<br />
measures appears to be disproportionate when<br />
compared to that of preventive measures. Also, a<br />
more efficient targeting of Community funding 25<br />
is dealt with (3.3.1) by establishing an inventory<br />
of existing Community instruments capable<br />
of supporting disaster prevention activities, as<br />
well as by developing a catalogue of prevention<br />
measures (e.g. measures integrating preventive<br />
action in re<strong>for</strong>estation/af<strong>for</strong>estation projects).<br />
Furthermore, a Council Decision<br />
establishing a Community Civil Protection<br />
Mechanism 25 deals with assistance intervention<br />
in the event of major emergencies, or the<br />
imminent threat thereof. However, a regulation<br />
on geological mass movements similar to the EU<br />
Directive on the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> management of<br />
flood risks 27 , with its flood <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>and</strong> flood<br />
risk maps, does not currently exist.<br />
3.6. Findings<br />
Some relevant regulations can be found at the<br />
European level. However, only one of them, Cross<br />
Compliance, is in <strong>for</strong>ce <strong>and</strong> affects the topic dealt<br />
with in this essay in a rather marginal way. By<br />
contrast, the Proposal <strong>for</strong> a Directive establishing<br />
a Framework <strong>for</strong> the Protection of Soil, which has<br />
been put on hold, contemplates the designation<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slide risk areas <strong>and</strong> the establishment of<br />
25<br />
Especially the European Agricultural Fund <strong>for</strong> Rural Development,<br />
the Civil Protection Financial Instrument, LIFE+,<br />
the ICT Policy Support Programme, the Research Framework<br />
Programme.<br />
26<br />
Council Decision 2007/779/EC of 8 November 2007, OJ<br />
2007 L 314/9.<br />
27<br />
Directive 2007/60/EC on the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> management of<br />
flood risks, OJ 2007 L 288/27.
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action programmes. Furthermore, a Community<br />
approach on the prevention of natural disasters<br />
sets out guidelines <strong>for</strong> the unification of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping in large-scale disasters.<br />
4. National law<br />
4.1. Forestry law<br />
Many times, the catchment area of mountain<br />
torrents <strong>and</strong> avalanches, as well as references to<br />
rock fall <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slip areas, are established within<br />
the national <strong>for</strong>estal spatial planning. 28 It can even<br />
include the layout of <strong>for</strong>ests with a protective<br />
function 29 or the extensive <strong>hazard</strong> description<br />
structured in risk levels. 30 The protective effect of<br />
the <strong>for</strong>est especially implies “the protection against<br />
natural peril <strong>and</strong> contaminating environmental<br />
influences as well as the conservation of the soil<br />
against torrents <strong>and</strong> drift, boulders accumulation<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides”. 31 Thus, <strong>for</strong>ests with a direct<br />
protective function against the above-mentioned<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s could be signalised by means of an<br />
administrative act (Bannwälder). 32<br />
4.2. Water law<br />
Such regulations are limited to measures <strong>for</strong> flood<br />
prevention 33 , although geological risks are at<br />
times also included 34 .<br />
28<br />
In Austria e.g. the mapping of risk areas is based on § 11 Austrian<br />
Forestry Act 1975, BGBl. 1975/440, in conjunction with §<br />
7.a Regulation on the mapping of risk areas, BGBl. 1976/436,<br />
including brown areas of reference, which posed other <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
than mountain torrents <strong>and</strong> avalanches, such as rock fall<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slips. Cf. JÄGER, Raumwirkungen des Forstrechts,<br />
in: Hauer/Nußbaumer (ed.), Österreichisches Raum- und<br />
Fachplanungsrecht (2006), p. 181 et seq.; STÖTTER/FUCHS,<br />
Umgang mit Naturgefahren – Status quo und und zukünftige<br />
An<strong>for</strong>derungen, in: Fuchs/Khakzadeh/Weber (ed.), Recht im<br />
Naturgefahrenmanagement (2006), p. 21 et seq.<br />
29<br />
In Austria e.g. Forestry Development Plan (Waldentwicklungsplan)<br />
based on § 9 Austrian Forestry Act 1975.<br />
30<br />
In Austria e.g. <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risks mapping (Gefahren- und<br />
Risikokarten), here geological <strong>hazard</strong> mapping (no legal basis).<br />
31<br />
Such as in § 6.2b Austrian Forestry Act 1975.<br />
32<br />
Such as in § 27.2.a Austrian Forestry Act 1975.<br />
33<br />
In Austria e.g. Section 4 of the Water Law Act 1959, BGBl.<br />
1959/215 (Wv).<br />
4.3. Soil protection law<br />
The rules on soil protection can be divided in two<br />
categories with different aims: on the one h<strong>and</strong>,<br />
qualitative soil damage such as contaminating<br />
activities <strong>and</strong> structural damages <strong>and</strong> on the<br />
other h<strong>and</strong>, quantitative soil loss, such as soil<br />
degradation <strong>and</strong> erosion. 35 The second category<br />
could also be of interest <strong>for</strong> mass movements. 36<br />
4.4. Spatial planning law<br />
As a general rule, rules on areas with a higher<br />
risk of mass movements in connection with the<br />
designation of building sites 37 or special use in<br />
grassl<strong>and</strong> can be mainly found in spatial planning<br />
law. Further contents in this regard remain<br />
missing. 38<br />
4.5. Building law<br />
A similar situation applies to building law. The<br />
suitability as a building site <strong>for</strong> areas with a higher<br />
risk of mass movements is not given. 39<br />
34<br />
In Austria e.g. Water Construction Development Act (Wasserbautenförderungsgesetz),<br />
BGBl. 1985/148 (Wv), expressly<br />
mentions the necessary protection against “rock fall, mudflow<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides” in the requirements <strong>for</strong> granting <strong>and</strong> allocation<br />
of federal funds to pursuit the objectives in the Act (§ 1.1.1.b).<br />
35<br />
Cf. HOLZER/REISCHAUER, Agrarumweltrecht. Kritische<br />
Analyse des „Grünen Rechts“ in Österreich (1991), p. 47;<br />
REISCHAUER (fn. 22), p. 477.<br />
36<br />
In Austria e.g. the pertinent national provisions only provide<br />
<strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>-use measures <strong>for</strong> soil in erosion areas; see § 5 Burgenl<strong>and</strong><br />
Soil Protection Act (Burgenländisches Bodenschutzgesetz),<br />
LGBl. 1990/87; § 27 Upper Austria Soil Protection<br />
Act 1991 (Oberösterreichisches Bodenschutzgesetz), LGBl.<br />
1997/63; § 7 Salzburg Soil Protection Act (Salzburger Bodenschutzgesetz),<br />
LGBl. 2001/80; § 6 Styria Agricultural Soil<br />
Protection Act (Steiermärkisches l<strong>and</strong>wirtschaftliches Bodenschutzgesetz),<br />
LGBl. 1987/66.<br />
37<br />
In Austria e.g. § 37.1.a Tyrol Spatial Planning Act (Tiroler<br />
Raumordnungsgesetz), LGBl. 2006/27, according to which<br />
certain areas are excluded as building sites when f.i. there is a<br />
risk of „rockfall, l<strong>and</strong>slide or other gravitated natural <strong>hazard</strong>s”.<br />
From the perspective of avalanche protection see in detail<br />
KHAKZADEH, Rechtsfragen des Lawinenschutzes (2004), p.<br />
37 et seq.<br />
38<br />
F.i. the Recommendation Nr. 52 of the Austrian Spatial Planning<br />
Conference (ÖROK) about preventive h<strong>and</strong>ling with natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s in Spatial Planning (2005) also puts an emphasis<br />
in floods. Cf. <strong>for</strong> Austria altogether KANONIER, Raumplanungsrechtliche<br />
Regelungen als Teil des Naturgefahrenmanagements,<br />
in: Fuchs/Khakzadeh/Weber (ed.), Recht im Naturgefahrenmanagement<br />
(2006), p. 123 et seq.<br />
4.6. Findings<br />
In the light of the arid gain at the international <strong>and</strong><br />
European legal level, at a first glance the respective<br />
national systems seem to constitute the determining<br />
factor, by implementing higher-ranking guidelines<br />
or autonomously. However, norms related to the<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s,<br />
such as the law of natural disaster management<br />
at all 40 , remain fragmentated between the various<br />
regulations (“Querschnittsmaterien”). Relevant<br />
provisions exist, primarily in <strong>for</strong>estry law with its<br />
extensive <strong>hazard</strong> descriptions, but also marginally<br />
in spatial planning law. This fact, however, would<br />
not allow the development of uni<strong>for</strong>m st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
<strong>and</strong> provisions <strong>for</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. 41<br />
5. Conclusion<br />
Legal provisions regarding the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
mapping of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s are tenuously<br />
sown at the international <strong>and</strong> European level.<br />
Unlikely enough, at the national level more legal<br />
provisions exist in connection with preventive<br />
planning 42 <strong>for</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. Here, the existing<br />
instruments partially conduct the <strong>assessment</strong> of<br />
mass movements, although the general problem<br />
of the coexistence of different area-related<br />
definitions still remains. 43<br />
39<br />
In Austria e.g. § 5.1.5 Styria Building Act (Steiermärkisches<br />
Baugesetz), LGBl. 1995/59, according to which a plot area is<br />
only suitable <strong>for</strong> building if the risks posed by „flood debris<br />
accumulation, rockfall, l<strong>and</strong>slides” are not to be expected. From<br />
the perspective of avalanche protection see in detail KHAKZ-<br />
ADEH (fn. 37), p. 58 et seq.<br />
40<br />
For Austria see e.g. HATTENBERGER, Naturgefahren und<br />
öffentliches Recht, in: Fuchs/Khakzadeh/Weber (ed.), Recht im<br />
Naturgefahrenmanagement (2006), p. 67 ; RUDOLF-MIKLAU<br />
(fn. 1), p. 57 <strong>and</strong> list 61 et seq., speaking of „Kompetenzlawine“.<br />
41<br />
WEBER/OBERMEIER, Verwaltungs- und zivilrechtliche Aspekte<br />
von Steinschlaggefährdung und –schutz, Studie im Auftrag<br />
des Bundesministeriums für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt<br />
und Wasserwirtschaft (2008, unveröffentlicht), p. 29, suggest<br />
<strong>for</strong> Austria f.i. an extension of the competence „Wildbach- und<br />
Lawinenverbauung“ towards other natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. The political<br />
feasibility seems little realistic.<br />
42<br />
For Austria see in detail RUDOLF-MIKLAU (fn. 1), p. 129 et<br />
seq.; HATTENBERGER (fn. 40), p. 73 et seq.<br />
43<br />
For Austria see HATTENBERGER (fn. 40), p. 84 et seq.<br />
A convincing <strong>and</strong> coherent overall view cannot<br />
be offered. Whereas the available legal set of tools<br />
remains within the same course of action, no<br />
relevant changes coming from the international<br />
<strong>and</strong> European level are to be expected in the<br />
near future. Admittedly, the creation of uni<strong>for</strong>m<br />
technical st<strong>and</strong>ards by all those involved as a<br />
further step towards self-regulation should be<br />
brought to mind.<br />
Anschrift des Verfassers / Author’s address:<br />
Univ.-Prof. Dr. Rol<strong>and</strong> Norer<br />
University of Lucerne<br />
School of Law<br />
Hofstraße 9<br />
P.O. Box 7464<br />
CH-6000 Luzern 7<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong>
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 70<br />
Seite 71<br />
KARL MAYER, BERNHARD LOCHNER<br />
Internationally Harmonized Terminology<br />
<strong>for</strong> Geological Risk: Glossary (Overview)<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Ausgangslage und Motivation für dieses Projekt ist die schon „traditionelle“ Problematik der<br />
unterschiedlichen Verwendung und Definition der Begrifflichkeiten in der Fachliteratur zum<br />
Themenbereich <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungsprozesse. Dies hat zur Folge, dass die Arbeitsweisen der<br />
Experten in den verschiedenen geologischen Ämtern in den Projektpartnerländern nicht einheitlich<br />
sind und es daher immer wieder zu Missverständnissen und Schwierigkeiten bei der<br />
Abstimmung gemeinsamer Projekte kommt. Aufgrund dieser Komplexität und der Unklarheit,<br />
die speziell im deutschsprachigen Raum, aber auch europaweit, besonders im Hinblick auf<br />
die Klassifikation der <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen existiert, soll ein mehrsprachiges Glossar erstellt<br />
werden, in welchem im Sinne der internationalen Harmonisierung in Absprache mit den<br />
einzelnen Projektpartnerländern die von den jeweiligen geologischen Ämtern verwendeten<br />
administrativen Begriffe eingestellt und in Beziehung gesetzt werden. Das gesamte Projekt<br />
gliedert sich grundsätzlich in einen technischen und einen inhaltlichen Teil, wobei die erste<br />
Projektphase vom technischen Bereich bestimmt wird. Da die harmonisierten Begrifflichkeiten<br />
und Definitionen für alle beteiligten Länder und auch für eine breitere Öffentlichkeit zugänglich<br />
gemacht werden soll, wird eine relationale Datenbank erstellt, in welcher die Inhalte<br />
logisch verknüpft werden und welche zu Projektende in die LfU-Homepage integriert wird.<br />
Internationale Harmonisierung der Fachterminologie<br />
für geologische Risiken: Glossar (Überblick)<br />
Summary:<br />
Purpose <strong>and</strong> motivation <strong>for</strong> this project are the difficulties traditionally encountered when<br />
using or defining mass movements terms in scientific papers. This results in different methods<br />
<strong>and</strong> concepts being used by geological agencies <strong>and</strong> finally leads to misunderst<strong>and</strong>ings<br />
<strong>and</strong> problems in cooperative international projects. In order to tackle that complexity <strong>and</strong><br />
ambiguity, found not only in the German-speaking geology, but generally throughout Europe,<br />
a multilingual glossary shall be created. This glossary aims at an international harmonization<br />
by providing the user with a selection of official terms used by the geological agencies in a<br />
specific country <strong>and</strong> by setting relations to similar terms employed in other countries. The<br />
resulting harmonized terms <strong>and</strong> definitions should be made available to all partners <strong>and</strong> to the<br />
general public on the internet through the Bavarian Environment Agency homepage. The first<br />
step is to design <strong>and</strong> implement the technical infrastructure required to store <strong>and</strong> query the<br />
terms. For this purpose, a relational database management system will be used as a back-end.<br />
1. Requirements <strong>for</strong> the relational database<br />
Be<strong>for</strong>e the actual database is deigned, it is essential<br />
to assess the exact requirements <strong>for</strong> the glossary.<br />
This eases the following conceptional work a lot<br />
<strong>and</strong> minimizes time-consuming adjustments <strong>and</strong><br />
changes to the model later on.<br />
First a list of attributes needed <strong>for</strong> a single<br />
glossary term as well as a type <strong>for</strong> those attributes<br />
(e.g. numbers, text, keys etc.) is to be defined.<br />
The type of attribute determines which relations<br />
can be saved in the database <strong>and</strong> what kind of<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation can be queried using them. Every<br />
attribute corresponds at least to one column in the<br />
main glossary table.<br />
The unique language to which a<br />
term is assigned is a fundamental attribute in<br />
a multilingual glossary. Because of the pan-<br />
European character of the glossary, it is necessary<br />
to specify the languages more precisely by linking<br />
them to a specific country, resulting in a unique<br />
combination <strong>for</strong> one language <strong>and</strong> one country.<br />
It is particularly relevant <strong>for</strong> this project, as the<br />
usage of a term varies greatly within a language<br />
depending on the region where it is used, as<br />
it is the case <strong>for</strong> German (Germany, Austria,<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong>).<br />
Easy <strong>and</strong> intuitive queries are essential<br />
<strong>for</strong> the usability of the glossary. Although the<br />
user friendliness mostly depends on the graphical<br />
user interface <strong>and</strong> is hard to control through the<br />
database design, there are still aspects that need<br />
to be considered in conception. It is important to<br />
determine what possible queries will be offered<br />
to the user (e.g. a search by synonyms, case <strong>and</strong><br />
special character insensitive searches, etc.) <strong>and</strong> to<br />
adapt the database design accordingly.<br />
Editing <strong>and</strong> adding glossary terms after<br />
the initial import should also be possible <strong>and</strong><br />
requires saving metadata <strong>for</strong> each entry, e.g. time<br />
<strong>and</strong> date of the creation or the last edit of a term.<br />
Using that in<strong>for</strong>mation, it is easy to reconstruct the<br />
history of an entry at a later point in time.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 72<br />
Seite 73<br />
PK<br />
Finally, the database should, to some<br />
extent, be exp<strong>and</strong>able if future needs <strong>for</strong><br />
extensions or additional functions arise.<br />
1.1 Relations<br />
tdtaTerm<br />
idterm<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
metacreator<br />
metaowner<br />
idreadaccess<br />
idwriteaccess<br />
deleted<br />
metamasterlang<br />
metalastedit<br />
The classical approach followed by most<br />
glossaries is a single translation layer; a direct<br />
translation of each term into exactly one term<br />
of another language. This corresponds to a 1: n<br />
relation between the entities (i.e. glossary terms)<br />
in an entity-relationship model (ERM). Such a<br />
direct translation supposes an equivalence of<br />
the terms’ definition <strong>and</strong> meaning. In this new<br />
glossary, the relations between the different<br />
terms should be defined solely by their technical<br />
meaning, resulting in two possible relations: same<br />
meaning or similar meaning. A direct translation is<br />
still required in order to provide the user with the<br />
exact translation of a definition in his language.<br />
Following example should help clarifying<br />
the concept of “meaning” vs. “definition”:<br />
The English term “rock fall” is usually<br />
translated into “Felssturz” or “Bergsturz” in<br />
German, but that translation usually doesn't<br />
consider the effective volume transported.<br />
However, if the technical meaning is taken into<br />
account, “Bergsturz”, which corresponds to a<br />
minimum volume of 106 cubic meters, would<br />
have the same meaning as “rock avalanche”, also<br />
characterized by volume values above 106 cubic<br />
tdtaTermLng<br />
PK, FK1<br />
PK<br />
meters. The relation to “rock fall” (i.e. similar<br />
meaning) would be a looser one. The relations<br />
between “cliff falls“, “block falls“, “boulder falls“<br />
<strong>and</strong> “Felssturz“, “Steinschlag“, “Blockschlag“<br />
could be defined in a similar manner.<br />
(Note: the values used above are examples <strong>and</strong> do<br />
not necessarily match any official values)<br />
1.2 Database model<br />
This chapter describes in detail the different<br />
“sections” of the database. For the purpose<br />
of clarity, the database was divided into four<br />
“sections” or “areas” which correspond to a set of<br />
interrelated tables. The following diagram shows<br />
the relations between those “sections”.<br />
Glossary<br />
• Terms<br />
• Relations<br />
• Translation tables<br />
Metadata<br />
• Workflow<br />
• History<br />
idterm lang<br />
term description<br />
Fig. 1: Example of a multilingual glossary where each term has exactly one translation in<br />
each other language. The primary key of the language table ('tdtaTermLng') is defined by<br />
its ID <strong>and</strong> language<br />
Abb. 1: Beispiel eines mehrsprachigen Glossars, in dem jeder Begriff genau eine<br />
Übersetzung für jede weitere Sprache hat. Der Primärschlüssel der Tabelle mit dem<br />
Textinhalt ('tdtaTermLng') ist somit über ID und Sprache definiert.<br />
Auxiliary<br />
• Key tables<br />
• Relation tables<br />
User Management<br />
• Users & groups<br />
• Permissions<br />
Fig. 2: Overview of the database model components<br />
Abb. 2: Übersicht über die Komponenten des Datenbankmodells<br />
The nomenclature used throughout the database<br />
follows a simple naming convention. Depending<br />
on the function or content of a particular table,<br />
its name is prefixed differently. The prefix “tdta-”<br />
st<strong>and</strong>s <strong>for</strong> tables in which actual data is being stored,<br />
“tkey-” is used <strong>for</strong> key tables (key attributes can<br />
only take a value from a predefined set of keys) <strong>and</strong><br />
“trel-” <strong>for</strong> relation tables. Unique IDs are prefixed<br />
with “id-” <strong>and</strong> meta-attributes with “meta-”.<br />
For most of the tables the multilingual concept<br />
required by the direct translation provides a<br />
second table with an identical name <strong>and</strong> the suffix<br />
“-Lng”. Those language tables hold the text values<br />
of the different glossary terms. The first “section”<br />
is the core of the database, with its element tables<br />
tdtaElement <strong>and</strong> tdtaEleGlossarTerm. The glossary<br />
terms are stored in the latter, whereas the main<br />
element table holds additional in<strong>for</strong>mation related<br />
to the system <strong>and</strong> not to the glossary itself (mostly<br />
through the usage of <strong>for</strong>eign keys).<br />
tdtaEleGlossarTerm<br />
PK,FK1 idelement<br />
FK3<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
term<br />
reference<br />
idtopic<br />
idlang<br />
idcountry<br />
searchterm<br />
searchsynonyms<br />
Fig. 4: Auxiliary tables<br />
Abb. 4: Behelfstabellen<br />
tkeyCountry<br />
PK idcountry<br />
countrysort<br />
PK<br />
tkeyLang<br />
idlang<br />
langsort<br />
tkeyTopic<br />
PK idtopic<br />
topicsort<br />
PK<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
FK1<br />
FK5<br />
FK3<br />
PK,FK1,<br />
PK,FK2<br />
tdtaElement<br />
idelement<br />
elementtype<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
metaowner<br />
metacreator<br />
idreadaccess<br />
idwriteaccess<br />
deleted<br />
metamasterlang<br />
tdtaElementLng<br />
idelement<br />
lang<br />
tdtaEleGlossarTermLng<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK,FK2<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK,FK2<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK,FK2<br />
idcountry<br />
lang<br />
title<br />
summary<br />
metacreated<br />
metalastedit<br />
metatranslator<br />
countryterm<br />
tkeyLangLng<br />
idcountry<br />
lang<br />
langterm<br />
idlanguage<br />
tkeyTopicLng<br />
idtopic<br />
lang<br />
topicterm<br />
PK<br />
PK,FK1<br />
FK3<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
tdtaEleGlossarTerm<br />
idelement<br />
term<br />
reference<br />
idtopic<br />
idlang<br />
idcountry<br />
searchterm<br />
searchsynonyms<br />
tdtaEleGlossarTermLng<br />
PK,FK1, FK2<br />
PK,FK1<br />
Fig. 3: Main tables<br />
Abb. 3: Haupttabellen<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK<br />
tkeyLanguage<br />
idlanguage<br />
lang<br />
languagesort<br />
tkeyLanguageLng<br />
idlanguage<br />
lang<br />
languagesort<br />
idelement<br />
lang<br />
title<br />
description
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 74<br />
Seite 75<br />
For each term, following fields are available:<br />
• 'term': the actual text value (direct<br />
translation using the -Lng table)<br />
• ‘reference’: source of in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> date<br />
• 'idlang' <strong>and</strong> 'idcountry': <strong>for</strong>eign keys<br />
pointing to a unique combination of<br />
language/country<br />
• 'idtopic': <strong>for</strong>eign key specifying the topic of<br />
this term<br />
• 'searchterm' <strong>and</strong> 'searchsynonyms': used<br />
<strong>for</strong> insensitive searches<br />
• 'picture': paths to pictures depicting a term<br />
PK<br />
PK<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
FK1<br />
FK5<br />
FK3<br />
PK<br />
FK1<br />
tkeyWorkflowStatus<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
workflowstatussort<br />
tdtaElement<br />
idelement<br />
elementtype<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
metaowner<br />
metacreator<br />
idreadaccess<br />
idwriteaccess<br />
deleted<br />
metamasterlang<br />
tdtaUser<br />
iduser<br />
username<br />
password<br />
email<br />
organisation<br />
fullname<br />
inactive<br />
superadmin<br />
lastlogin<br />
loginip<br />
maingroup<br />
Fig. 5: Metadata tables<br />
Fig. 5: Metadata tables<br />
The auxiliary tables are mainly key tables defining<br />
the different languages, countries <strong>and</strong> topics used<br />
in the main table. They also contain the relation<br />
table used to specify relations between terms<br />
based on a relation code (“similar” or “same”).<br />
Metadata is partly stored in the tdtaElement table<br />
using <strong>for</strong>eign keys. Those keys point to external<br />
metadata tables such as tkeyWorkflowstatus<br />
or tdtaUser, where, <strong>for</strong> example, in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about the status, author or owner of an element<br />
are defined. tdtaHistory works similarly to a log<br />
by saving all actions per<strong>for</strong>med on a specific<br />
tkeyWorkflowStatusLng<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK,FK2<br />
PK,FK1<br />
FK3<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
PK<br />
FK2<br />
FK1<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
lang<br />
workflowstatusterm<br />
tdtaEleGlossarTerm<br />
idelement<br />
term<br />
reference<br />
idtopic<br />
idlang<br />
idcountry<br />
searchterm<br />
seyrchsynonyms<br />
tdtaHistory<br />
idhistory<br />
idelement<br />
lang<br />
iduser<br />
logdatetime<br />
info<br />
idelementaction<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK<br />
FK2<br />
PK<br />
tkeyLanguage<br />
idlanguage<br />
lang<br />
languagesort<br />
tkeyLanguageLng<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK<br />
idlanguage<br />
lang<br />
languagesort<br />
tkeyelementActionLng<br />
PK<br />
FK1<br />
idelementaction<br />
lang<br />
elementactionterm<br />
idlanguage<br />
tkeyElementAction<br />
idelementaction<br />
elementactionsort<br />
idhistory<br />
PK<br />
FK4<br />
FK2<br />
FK1<br />
FK5<br />
FK3<br />
PK<br />
FK1<br />
tdtaElement<br />
idelement<br />
elementtype<br />
idworkflowstatus<br />
metaowner<br />
metacreator<br />
idreadaccess<br />
idwriteaccess<br />
deleted<br />
metamasterlang<br />
tdtaUser<br />
iduser<br />
username<br />
password<br />
email<br />
organisation<br />
fullname<br />
inactive<br />
superadmin<br />
lastlogin<br />
loginip<br />
maingroup<br />
element, which can be displayed as a list to an<br />
authorized user.<br />
Finally, user <strong>and</strong> group management<br />
defines the group(s) a user belongs to <strong>and</strong> which<br />
read/write rights a group or a specific user owns<br />
(through the tdtaElement table)<br />
1.3 Data capture <strong>and</strong> import<br />
PK<br />
PK,FK2<br />
PK,FK1<br />
Fig. 6: User <strong>and</strong> group management<br />
Abb. 6: Benutzer- und Gruppenverwaltung<br />
The primary data capture is done via an Excel<br />
table with a predefined <strong>for</strong>mat. This table is used<br />
as an interface to import data records in the<br />
database. The person responsible <strong>for</strong> filling out<br />
this table must ensure that the relations between<br />
the terms are set correctly. Other errors, such as<br />
tdtaGroup<br />
idgroup<br />
groupname<br />
description<br />
trelUserGroup<br />
iduser<br />
idgroup<br />
PK<br />
duplicate IDs, can be h<strong>and</strong>led to some extent by<br />
the database itself. The integration of the database<br />
into the homepage from the Bavarian Environment<br />
Agency (LfU) <strong>and</strong> a graphical user interface to<br />
manually add or edit single terms is planned in<br />
the final stage of the project.<br />
2. Contents of the glossary<br />
tkeyPermissionLevelLng<br />
PK,FK1<br />
PK<br />
tkeyPermissionLevel<br />
idpermissionlevel<br />
permissionlevelsort<br />
idpermissionlevel<br />
lang<br />
permissionlevelterm<br />
In view of a different use of l<strong>and</strong>slide-terms in the<br />
European countries, a multilingual glossary can help<br />
to improve the collaboration between the experts.<br />
Also, progress concerning the comparability of the<br />
methods dealing with geological <strong>hazard</strong>s in the<br />
several countries is to be achieved.
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 76<br />
Seite 77<br />
In general, the glossary implies terms <strong>and</strong><br />
definitions to l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> corresponding maps,<br />
considering “danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk” caused by<br />
several kinds of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. Due to the<br />
“alpine – character” of the project, the glossary<br />
contains all the languages spoken in the <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
region plus English <strong>and</strong> Spanish <strong>for</strong> two additional<br />
European countries dealing with geological<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s. There<strong>for</strong>e, the glossary consists of the<br />
following six languages:<br />
• German – Germany, Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, Austria<br />
(three different lists)<br />
• Italian – Italy<br />
• French – France<br />
• Slovenian – Slovenia<br />
• Spanish – Spain (Castilian <strong>and</strong> Catalan)<br />
• English – United Kingdom<br />
2.1 Basic list <strong>for</strong> Germany<br />
For the development of such a glossary, it is<br />
necessary to create a “basic list” in which all<br />
the desired terms <strong>and</strong> definitions are included.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e a table with 92 terms <strong>and</strong> definitions<br />
<strong>for</strong> geological <strong>hazard</strong>s (in German) was drafted.<br />
Based on this, the other language lists were<br />
developed. More in<strong>for</strong>mation on the approach of<br />
this “Harmonization” is available in chapter 3.2.<br />
In order to facilitate this process, all<br />
the terms are structured in different topics.<br />
This classification is very useful <strong>for</strong> simplifying<br />
the comparability between the languages. For<br />
example, it’s much easier to get the English term<br />
<strong>for</strong> “Stauchwulst” if the English expert knows that<br />
you are searching <strong>for</strong> an accumulation term. This<br />
topical limitation helps the translator to get the<br />
several experts on the right track.<br />
The “basic list” is structured into the<br />
following topics:<br />
• Accumulation (Ablagerungen - z.B.<br />
Schuttkegel)<br />
• General geomorphology (Allgemeine<br />
Geomorphologie - z.B. Grat)<br />
• General (Allgemeines - z.B.<br />
Primärereignis)<br />
• Fracture <strong>for</strong>ms (Anbruch<strong>for</strong>men - z.B.<br />
Bergzerreissung)<br />
• Path of movement (Bewegungsbahnen -<br />
z.B. Sturzbahn)<br />
• Flow process slow (Fließprozess – langsam<br />
- z.B. Solifluktion)<br />
• Flow process rapid (Fließprozess – schnell<br />
- z.B. Blockstrom)<br />
• Flow process very rapid (Fließprozess –<br />
sehr schnell - z.B. Murgang)<br />
• Risk (Gefahr-Gefährdung-Risiko - z.B.<br />
Restrisiko)<br />
• Maps (Karten - z.B. Gefahrenkarte)<br />
• Classification – processes (Klassifikation –<br />
Prozesse - z.B. Sturzprozess)<br />
• Measures (Maßnahmen - z.B. aktive<br />
Maßnahmen)<br />
• Slides combined (Rutschprozess –<br />
Kombinierte Rutschung - z.B. Rutschung<br />
mit kombinierter Gleitfläche)<br />
• Slides rotational (Rutschprozess<br />
– Rotationsrutschung - z.B.<br />
Rotationsrutschung)<br />
• Slides translational (Rutschprozess<br />
– Translationsrutschung - z.B.<br />
Translationsrutschung)<br />
• L<strong>and</strong>slide dynamics (Rutschungsdynamik -<br />
z.B. aktuelle Hangbewegung)<br />
• L<strong>and</strong>slide features (Rutschungsmerkmale -<br />
z.B. Rutschungkopf)<br />
• Falls (Sturzprozess – Bergsturz - z.B.<br />
Bergsturz)<br />
• Falls (Sturzprozess – Blockschlag - z.B.<br />
Blockschlag)<br />
• Falls (Sturzprozess – Felssturz - z.B.<br />
Felssturz)<br />
• Falls (Sturzprozess – Steinschlag - z.B.<br />
Steinschlag)<br />
• Subrosion (Subrosionsprozess - z.B.<br />
Doline)<br />
As mentioned above, the different terms lists<br />
will be integrated in the official homepage of<br />
the Bavarian Environment Agency in a final step.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, the terms are collected in a predefined<br />
id term lang country definition reference topic<br />
2016 Abflusslose<br />
Senke<br />
2066 aktive<br />
Maßnahmen<br />
2070 Aktuelle<br />
Hangbewegung<br />
de<br />
de<br />
de<br />
DE<br />
DE<br />
DE<br />
2029 Anbruch de DE<br />
2027 Auslöser de DE<br />
2092 Bachschwinde<br />
(Ponor)<br />
de<br />
DE<br />
2079 Bergsturz de DE<br />
Fig. 7: Extract of the “Basic-Terms-Table” in German<br />
Abb. 7: Auszug aus der Deutschen Begriffstabelle<br />
Senke ohne natürlich möglichen<br />
oberirdischen Wasserabfluss. In<br />
einem fluviatil geprägten Relief<br />
stellt sie eine Anomalie dar, die<br />
u.U ein Hinweis auf Hangbewegungen<br />
sein kann<br />
Schutzmaßnahme, die dem Naturereignis<br />
aktiv entgegenwirkt,<br />
um die Gefahr zu verringern<br />
oder um den Ablauf eines Ereignisses<br />
oder dessen Eintretenswahrscheinlichkeit<br />
wesentlich zu<br />
verändern. Neben den klassischen,<br />
punktuellen technischen<br />
Schutzmaßnahmen wie zum<br />
Beispiel Stützmauer oder Felsanker<br />
sind auch flächendeckende<br />
Maßnahmen im Einzugsgebiet,<br />
beispielsweise Auf<strong>for</strong>stungen<br />
oder Entwässerungen, dieser<br />
Kategorie zuzuordnen.<br />
Hangbewegung die zum Zeitpunkt<br />
der Aufnahme aktiv oder<br />
bezüglich ihres Alters für die<br />
Untersuchungen relevant war.<br />
Hangbereich aus dem eine<br />
Hangbewegung ihren Ausgang<br />
nimmt.<br />
Der Auslöser/Anlass für das<br />
Versagen eines Hanges liegt in<br />
externen Faktoren. Dieser löst<br />
eine quasi so<strong>for</strong>tige Reaktion<br />
aus, die ihrerseits wieder Auslöser<br />
für die nächste Reaktion<br />
sein kann (Kausalitätskette).<br />
Die Auslöser reduzieren zum<br />
Beispiel die Festigkeit der im<br />
Hang anstehenden Gesteine.<br />
Mögliche Auslöser können sein:<br />
Niederschläge, Schneeschmelze,<br />
Frost- Tauwechsel, Erdbeben,<br />
Menschlicher Eingriff.<br />
Öffnungen an der Erdoberfläche<br />
über die Oberflächenwasser in<br />
den Untergrund eindringt.<br />
Hangbewegung mit großem<br />
Volumen und hoher Dynamik,<br />
die oftmals dafür sorgt, dass<br />
die <strong>Mass</strong>en am Gegenhang<br />
weit aufbr<strong>and</strong>en. Volumen ><br />
1.000.000m³.<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
LfU Bayern<br />
Allgemeine<br />
Geomorphologie<br />
Maßnahmen<br />
Rutschungsdynamik<br />
Anbruch<strong>for</strong>men<br />
Allgemeines<br />
Subrosionsprozess/Allgemein<br />
LfU Bayern Sturzprozess -<br />
Bergsturz<br />
same_<br />
rel<br />
similar_<br />
rel
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 78<br />
Seite 79<br />
Excel table with a unique ID <strong>for</strong> each term. This<br />
ID is used to establish the relations between the<br />
different languages <strong>and</strong> also to integrate these in<br />
the relational database. Fig. 6 shows an extract<br />
of this Excel table with the basic terms from<br />
Germany.<br />
2.2 “Harmonisation” of terms <strong>and</strong> methods<br />
“…A glossary will facilitate transdisciplinary<br />
<strong>and</strong> translingual cooperation as well as support<br />
the harmonization of the various methods…”<br />
(www.adaptalp.org).<br />
Striving <strong>for</strong> “Harmonization” of regional<br />
terms <strong>and</strong> methods seems to be a guiding principle<br />
not only in WP 5 of the AdaptAlp project but in<br />
multiple European cooperation projects.<br />
In the literature, a lot of definitions are<br />
used <strong>for</strong> the term harmonization. According to<br />
the business dictionary, harmonization is an<br />
“adjustment of differences <strong>and</strong> inconsistencies<br />
among different measurements, methods,<br />
procedures, schedules, specifications, or systems<br />
to make them uni<strong>for</strong>m or mutually compatible”<br />
(www.businessdictionary.com).<br />
This definition implies some important<br />
points which are mentioned as main goals in many<br />
projects supported by the EU. The adjustment of<br />
differences <strong>and</strong> the achievement of compatibility<br />
also play a major role in work package 5:<br />
“AdaptAlp will evaluate, harmonise <strong>and</strong> improve<br />
different methods of <strong>hazard</strong> zone planning<br />
applied in the <strong>Alpine</strong> area. The comparison of<br />
methods <strong>for</strong> mapping geological <strong>and</strong> water risks<br />
in the individual countries” (www.adaptalp.org)<br />
will be brought into focus.<br />
Concerning the development of the<br />
multilingual glossary <strong>for</strong> geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, the<br />
“Harmonization” is implemented by the following<br />
approach.<br />
German<br />
English<br />
id term definition reference topic topic term definition<br />
2001 Stauchwulst<br />
2002 Murwall<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
Blockl<strong>and</strong>schaft<br />
Murkegel,<br />
-fächer<br />
Schwemmkegel,<br />
-fächer<br />
2006 Schuttkegel<br />
2007 Buckelfläche<br />
2008 Sturzmasse<br />
2009 Rutschmasse<br />
2010<br />
Rutschscholle<br />
2011 Sturzblock<br />
Wulst aus Gesteinsmaterial.<br />
Sie tritt vor allem an der<br />
Stirn einer Rutsch- oder<br />
Kriechmasse auf<br />
Murablagerung am<br />
seitlichen R<strong>and</strong> des<br />
Murkanales<br />
Gelände, in dem weiträumig<br />
Blöcke und Gesteinsschollen<br />
verteilt sind.<br />
Herkunft der Blöcke in der<br />
Regel von großen Fels- od.<br />
Bergstürzen, aber auch von<br />
Talzuschüben.<br />
Unter Murkegel sind kegelförmige<br />
Ablagerungen v.a.<br />
an Gerinnen zu verstehen,<br />
deren Böschungswinkel<br />
meist mehr als 8-10° beträgt<br />
Sie sind oft noch durch die<br />
typischen dammartigen<br />
Wülste entlang des R<strong>and</strong>es<br />
eines ehemaligen Murstromes<br />
gekennzeichnet.<br />
Schwemmkegel weisen im<br />
Gegensatz zu Murkegeln<br />
meist Böschungswinkel von<br />
weniger als 10° auf, größere<br />
Geschiebeblöcke fehlen.<br />
Schuttkegel entstehen<br />
v. a. durch Steinschlag.<br />
Sie lagern sich an<br />
Steilwände und dort<br />
bevorzugt im Bereich von<br />
Steinschlagrinnen an<br />
Gelände, das durch<br />
unruhige Morphologie<br />
(weiche Formen)<br />
gekennzeichnet ist.<br />
Ablagerung infolge eines<br />
Sturzprozesses.<br />
Ablagerung infolge eines<br />
Rutschprozesses<br />
Teilweise im<br />
Verb<strong>and</strong> befindlicher<br />
Gesteinskomplex, der als<br />
ganze Scholle abrutscht.<br />
Einzelblock >1m³, infolge<br />
eines Sturzprozesses.<br />
Fig. 8: Extract of the “suggested-terms list” <strong>for</strong> Engl<strong>and</strong><br />
Abb. 8: Auszug aus der vorgeschlagenen Begriffsliste für Engl<strong>and</strong><br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation toe????<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation<br />
Bloc<br />
L<strong>and</strong>scape????<br />
coned debris/<br />
detritus????<br />
undulating<br />
area????<br />
sliding bloc/clod/<br />
massif????<br />
LfU Bayern Ablagerungen accumulation (fall) bloc????<br />
accumulation at the toe/foot<br />
of the main body.<br />
accumulation at flank of the<br />
main body.<br />
Area in which blocs are<br />
shared spacious. Bloc are<br />
comming from rock collapses,<br />
block falls or sags.<br />
Coned accumulation espacially<br />
at channels with a<br />
naturel slope of 8-10°.<br />
Coned accumulation espacially<br />
at channels with a<br />
naturel slope less than 10°<br />
<strong>and</strong> with no big blocs.<br />
"coned debris/detritus" are<br />
caused by rock falls. They<br />
accumulate at the rock face.<br />
Area which is characterized<br />
by undulating morphologie.<br />
Accumulation caused by a<br />
fall process.<br />
Accumulation caused by a<br />
slide process.<br />
A coplex of rocks which is<br />
sliding as one bloc/clod/<br />
massif.<br />
One bloc (
Key-note papers<br />
Seite 80<br />
Seite 81<br />
2.2.1 Basic rules<br />
In order to tackle the complexity <strong>and</strong> ambiguity,<br />
found not only in German-speaking geology,<br />
but generally throughout Europe, a multilingual<br />
glossary shall be created. This glossary aims at<br />
international harmonization by providing the<br />
user with a selection of official terms used by<br />
the geological agency in a specific country <strong>and</strong><br />
by setting relations to similar terms employed in<br />
other countries. Unlike many other glossaries,<br />
which are more like dictionaries working with<br />
direct translations; this glossary consists of terms<br />
<strong>and</strong> definitions which are used by the official<br />
agencies from the involved countries. So the big<br />
difference from many other word lists is the way<br />
of getting the topics.<br />
2.2.2 Data acquisition<br />
Basically the data acquisition is made during<br />
short visits in the involved countries. Building<br />
on the German “basic list”, in these talks “term<br />
after term” is discussed with the respective person<br />
responsible. With regard to linguistic problems,<br />
each “Harmonization” is carried out with the<br />
help of native speakers who also be well versed in<br />
the thematic of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. The terms are<br />
related in the following three <strong>for</strong>ms:<br />
• Same meaning (the term has the same<br />
meaning in both languages)<br />
• Similar meaning (the term has a similar<br />
meaning in both languages)<br />
• Not existing (no term with the same or<br />
similar meaning exists)<br />
To facilitate the harmonization process, in the<br />
run-up to the visits, several national literature<br />
lists with suggested terms are worked out with<br />
the native speakers. These lists also contain short<br />
descriptions of the desired expressions <strong>and</strong> they<br />
are sent to the responsible persons <strong>for</strong> orientation<br />
<strong>and</strong> preparation. Furthermore, Fig. 7 shows an<br />
extract of the “suggested terms list” <strong>for</strong> Engl<strong>and</strong>.<br />
A picture paints a thous<strong>and</strong> words, there<strong>for</strong>e also<br />
pictures <strong>and</strong> illustrations are used within the talks.<br />
2.2.3 Data preparation <strong>and</strong> presentation<br />
Concerning the data preparation, the main issues<br />
are already described in the technical description<br />
above. The central point to fully exploit the<br />
possibilities of the database structure is the correct<br />
setting of the relations between the different terms<br />
(over the ID).<br />
Regarding to the data presentation, at<br />
this stage of the project no final results can be<br />
shown. As mentioned in the introduction of this<br />
article, the main output of the project will be an<br />
online glossary which is linked to the homepage<br />
of the Bavarian Environment Agnecy (LfU). The<br />
layout of this web page should be clear <strong>and</strong><br />
simple <strong>for</strong> everyone to use. There<strong>for</strong>e existing<br />
online glossaries are compared <strong>and</strong> “bestpractice”<br />
examples are pulled out as inspiration.<br />
Fig. 8 shows the “Inter Active Terminology <strong>for</strong><br />
Europe” glossary from the European Union which<br />
approximately fulfils the desired criteria <strong>for</strong> the<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong> glossary.<br />
technical meaning. Although the structure of the<br />
model may seem complex, the multiple functions<br />
offered by external tables <strong>and</strong> the stronger data<br />
integrity fully compensate <strong>for</strong> a higher level of<br />
complexity. To achieve this complexity, not only<br />
the structure of the relational database but also<br />
the contents should satisfy the guidelines. The<br />
term “Harmonisation” is playing a central role<br />
in the work <strong>for</strong> the glossary where the contents<br />
are concerned. Only terms, which are officially<br />
used by the regional responsible agencies,<br />
are registered in the glossary <strong>and</strong> the relations<br />
between the different expressions are also defined<br />
by several experts. The topics in this glossary<br />
are not defined by a translation agency, which<br />
undoubtedly would have the linguistic ability<br />
but not the specialist background. Due to this<br />
approach, every involved country or region gets<br />
the chance to determine the terms <strong>and</strong> definitions<br />
they use <strong>and</strong> that procedure improves the overall<br />
result. The connection to the LfU – Homepage<br />
ensures accessibility <strong>for</strong> all interested persons.<br />
This is an important contribution to one of the<br />
main goals of the whole project, namely the<br />
improvement of the cooperation by the European<br />
countries in dealing with geological <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
3. Conclusion<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Fig. 9: Screenshot of the online “Inter Active Terminology <strong>for</strong> Europe” from the EU (Source: http://iate.europa.eu)<br />
Abb. 9: Screenshot de online „Inter Active Terminology <strong>for</strong> Europe” der EU (Quelle: http://iate.europa.eu)<br />
As mentioned in the introduction, this article<br />
presents no final results because the project runs<br />
until February 2011. Nevertheless, provisional<br />
results, theoretical <strong>and</strong> practical approaches<br />
could be shown. The database model presented<br />
in this article fulfils all requirements stated<br />
by a multilingual glossary focusing on mass<br />
movements <strong>and</strong> other geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. The<br />
multilingual concept provides the user with a<br />
direct translation of a term in a <strong>for</strong>eign language<br />
<strong>and</strong> sets relations to other terms based on its<br />
Karl Mayer<br />
Bavarian Environment Agency (LfU)<br />
(Office Munich)<br />
Lazarettstraße 67<br />
80636 Munich – GERMANY<br />
Bernhard Lochner<br />
alpS – Centre <strong>for</strong> Natural Hazard<br />
<strong>and</strong> Risk Management<br />
Grabenweg 3<br />
6020 Innsbruck - AUSTRIA
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Seite 82<br />
Seite 83<br />
MICHAEL MÖLK, THOMAS SAUSGRUBER, RICHARD BÄK, ARBEN KOCIU<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment<br />
<strong>for</strong> Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong><br />
(Rock Fall <strong>and</strong> L<strong>and</strong>slide) in Austria<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards und Methoden der Gefährdungsanalyse<br />
für schnelle <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen<br />
(Steinschläge und Rutschungen) in Österreich<br />
Summary:<br />
This presents the Austrian approach <strong>for</strong> the documentation <strong>and</strong> prediction of l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong><br />
rock falls from various inventories (GEORIOS - Geological Survey, Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche<br />
Control, inventories of the federal states) via the <strong>hazard</strong> zone planning leading to the<br />
development of process related susceptibility maps. The different legal obligations of the<br />
respective organizations leads to different results regarding the type, the extent <strong>and</strong> the quality<br />
of the expertise.<br />
Introduction<br />
In Austria there are several public organizations<br />
([12] HÜBL et al. 2009) involved in the <strong>assessment</strong><br />
of rapid gravitational mass movements such<br />
as rock falls <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides. Inventories of such<br />
events are maintained by the Austrian Torrent <strong>and</strong><br />
Avalanche Control (WLV) <strong>and</strong> the Geological<br />
Survey of Austria (GBA) apart from independent<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>s done by the national railway <strong>and</strong><br />
road administrations.<br />
On the level of the federal administrations,<br />
different approaches to documenting <strong>and</strong>/or<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasting such mass movements are being followed.<br />
These organizations deal with those <strong>hazard</strong>s using<br />
different approaches (method <strong>and</strong> target).<br />
As there are no legal instructions in Austria<br />
as to how to deal with the evaluation of mass<br />
movements, the federal states all follow a different<br />
course of action. Also, the status of available<br />
historical data is very different in the individual<br />
states. In some of the federal states, almost no data<br />
is available, others have collected a lot of data<br />
but it is not digitally available. And then there are<br />
states that can rely on a lot of digitally available<br />
data <strong>and</strong> are working on generating l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
susceptibility maps. The following provides a short<br />
summary about the ef<strong>for</strong>ts in the federal states.<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>-movement inventories in Austria<br />
Since 1978 the Geological Survey of Austria<br />
has been gathering <strong>and</strong> displaying in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(e.g. documents, photos, inventory maps)<br />
about gravitational mass movements <strong>and</strong> other<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>ous processes. Due to the increasing<br />
amount of data, the Department of Engineering<br />
Geology of the Geological Survey of Austria<br />
developed a complex data management system<br />
called GEORIOS. It consists of a Geographical<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation System (GIS), which is the basis <strong>for</strong><br />
the digital storage <strong>and</strong> display of data <strong>and</strong> overlay<br />
of different data types. Additionally the data<br />
management system consists of a relational data<br />
base, which manages additional thous<strong>and</strong>s of<br />
meta-in<strong>for</strong>mation (documents, photos etc.).<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Der „österreichische“ Weg zur Erfassung von historischen bzw. zur Vorhersage von zukünftigen<br />
Steinschlagprozessen und Rutschungen von den verschiedenen Ereigniskatastern (GEORIOS<br />
– Geologische Bundesanstalt, Wildbach- und Lawinenkataster, Ereigniskataster der Länder)<br />
über die Gefahrenzonenplanung bis zur Erstellung von Prozessdispositionskarten wird dargestellt.<br />
Dabei sind unterschiedliche gesetzliche Verpflichtungen und Zielsetzungen für die damit<br />
befassten Organisationen maßgeblich für die Art, den Umfang und die Qualität der erreichten<br />
Aussagen.<br />
Fig. 1: Inventory of mass movements in Austria (source Geol. B.-A.: www.geologie.ac.at)<br />
Abb. 1: Karte der <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Österreich (Quelle: Geol. B.-A.: www.geologie.ac.at)
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The database includes detailed<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about the mass movements (geology,<br />
hydrology, geometric <strong>and</strong> geographical data,<br />
studies or tests carried out, mitigation measures)<br />
<strong>and</strong> the source of in<strong>for</strong>mation (archives, etc.), <strong>and</strong><br />
also in<strong>for</strong>mation about who carried out the field<br />
work <strong>and</strong> added the data into the database.<br />
There are already 22,000 mass<br />
movements stored in the database. The<br />
compilation of a part of the mass movements<br />
in Austria is publicly accessible via the internet<br />
(www.geologie.ac.at) in German <strong>and</strong> English.<br />
However, the web application includes only<br />
events such as slides, rock falls, or more complex<br />
mass movements which have been published<br />
already in the media or the internet <strong>and</strong> are freely<br />
available <strong>for</strong> everyone ([16]KOCIU et al 2007).<br />
An engineering geological database, as<br />
well as a bibliographical database is also included<br />
in the GEORIOS system.<br />
In cooperation with the Geological<br />
Survey of Carinthia, the Geological Survey of<br />
Austria has created not just one “inventory map”,<br />
but a “level of in<strong>for</strong>mation”, as is explained in the<br />
following ([17] KOCIU et al 2010):<br />
Level of in<strong>for</strong>mation:<br />
• Process index map, map of phenomena<br />
(“Prozesshinweiskarte”, “Karte der<br />
Phänomene”): These kinds of maps can have<br />
different scales (1:50,000 <strong>and</strong> bigger) <strong>and</strong><br />
can be of varying quality with in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about process areas as phenomena of mass<br />
movements that have already happened.<br />
• The event inventory (“Ereigniskataster”)<br />
records only those processes <strong>for</strong> which an<br />
event date is known (5W–questions), it is<br />
independent of a scale <strong>and</strong> can contain<br />
processes without in<strong>for</strong>mation on location.<br />
In Carinthia, a digital l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory<br />
was created with historical events of the<br />
last 50 years ([1] BÄK et al 2005).<br />
Fig. 2: Event inventory of Carinthia with 5W-questions <strong>and</strong><br />
quality remarks MAXO (M-sure; A-estimate; X-uncertain;<br />
O-unknown)<br />
Abb. 2: Ereignisdatenbank von Kärnten mit 5W-Fragen und<br />
Qualitätskriterien „MAXO“<br />
• The inventory map/event map<br />
(“Ereigniskarte”) contains only in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about processes <strong>for</strong> which an event date is<br />
known (5W–questions: What, When, Where,<br />
Who, Why). The symbols are correlated to<br />
process type <strong>and</strong> magnitude (triangle – small<br />
events, pentagon – great events).<br />
Fig. 3: Event map of Carinthia (brown – l<strong>and</strong>slides; blue – earth<br />
flow; red – rock fall; green – earth fall)<br />
Abb. 3: Ereigniskarte von Kärnten<br />
• The thematic inventory map contains<br />
only in<strong>for</strong>mation related to a type of<br />
process, categorized according to the<br />
quality of the data.<br />
Fig. 4: WLV-Inventory of mass movements in Austria (source: www.die-wildbach.at)<br />
Abb. 4: Ereignisdatenbank der WLV (Quelle: www.die-wildbach.at)<br />
The Austrian Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control (WLV)<br />
also maintains an inventory covering torrential<br />
floods, avalanches, l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls – the<br />
are chosen to develop susceptibility maps<br />
(different scales, processes) derived from existing<br />
data sets <strong>and</strong> maps ([30] POSCH-TRÖTZMÜLLER<br />
so called “Wildbach- und Lawinenkataster”. G., 2010): Main focus of Burgenl<strong>and</strong> is<br />
concentrated on shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides with an<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards of susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong> in Austria<br />
annual rate of movement of 1-2cm. For the<br />
prediction of l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility based on<br />
morphological <strong>and</strong> geological factors, the method<br />
Because of the lack of a regulatory framework<br />
or technical st<strong>and</strong>ard concerning l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong><br />
rock falls in Austria - only the course of actions<br />
concerning floods, avalanches <strong>and</strong> debris flows<br />
are regulated by law (ordinance of <strong>hazard</strong> zone<br />
mapping,[33] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. & SCHMIDT<br />
F., 2004) - the federal states all follow a different<br />
course of action.<br />
For example, in Vorarlberg risk maps<br />
(susceptibility map, vulnerability map, risk map)<br />
were produced in the course of a university<br />
dissertation ([34] RUFF, 2005). For modelling,<br />
bivariate statistics (<strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides) <strong>and</strong> cost<br />
analysis (<strong>for</strong> rock fall) were used, working with a<br />
25x25m raster. The susceptibility, meaning spatial<br />
susceptibility, is presented in 5 classes (very low,<br />
low, medium, high, very high). The inventory map<br />
is included in the susceptibility map. On the other<br />
h<strong>and</strong>, the local department of the Austrian Service<br />
<strong>for</strong> Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control (WLV) creates<br />
“<strong>hazard</strong> maps” within the “<strong>hazard</strong> zoning plan”.<br />
called “Weights of Evidence” was chosen ([15]<br />
KLINGSEISEN et al., 2006). Three (respectively<br />
4) <strong>hazard</strong> zones were classified ([“high Hazard”],<br />
“<strong>hazard</strong>”, “<strong>hazard</strong> cannot be excluded”, “no<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>”, [15] KLINGSEISEN et al., 2006). In<br />
Lower Austria up until now the susceptibility maps<br />
have been created using a heuristic approach<br />
based on geological expertise, historical data <strong>and</strong><br />
interpretation of DEM <strong>and</strong> aerial photos. Three<br />
to ten classes of susceptibility are delineated at<br />
a scale ranging from 1:50,000 to 1:25,000 ([36]<br />
SCHWEIGL & HERVAS 2009). To offer assistance<br />
<strong>for</strong> the municipalities in l<strong>and</strong>-use planning,<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps were generated <strong>for</strong><br />
the major settled areas in Upper Austria (OÖ).<br />
For each type of mass movement, the priority,<br />
which is a susceptibility class, was evaluated on<br />
the basis of the intensity <strong>and</strong> the probability of an<br />
event. The priority was classified in 3 stages (high<br />
– medium – low; [18] KOLMER, 2005). As these<br />
maps include the intensity <strong>and</strong> the frequency of<br />
In Upper Austria, Lower Austria, mass movements, they can be called “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
Burgenl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Carinthia, different approaches maps” by definition. Nevertheless it has to be
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taken into account that the method of generating<br />
these maps included neither field work nor remote<br />
sensing techniques. The method of <strong>assessment</strong> is<br />
based solely on geological expertise.<br />
Using the digital geological map of<br />
Carinthia (1:50,000), the inventory map of mass<br />
movements (l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock falls), DEM<br />
(10m x10m raster), l<strong>and</strong>-use <strong>and</strong> lithologicalgeotechnical<br />
characteristics of bedrock <strong>and</strong><br />
For a small study area in Styria, the Geological<br />
Survey of Austria generated a susceptibility map<br />
<strong>for</strong> spontaneous l<strong>and</strong>slide (soil slips <strong>and</strong> earth<br />
flows) at a scale of 1:50,000 using neural network<br />
analysis ([35] SCHWARZ et al., 2009). Any<br />
susceptibility class is not a ranking of the degree<br />
of slope stability, but a description of the relative<br />
propensity/probability of a l<strong>and</strong>slide of a given<br />
type <strong>and</strong> of a given source area to occur.).<br />
unconsolidated sediments, process-related<br />
At the Geological Survey of Austria<br />
susceptibility maps <strong>for</strong> Carinthia were generated in<br />
a collaboration of the Geological Survey of Austria<br />
(GBA) <strong>and</strong> the Geological Survey of Carinthia at<br />
a scale of 1:200,000 ([1] BÄK et al., 2005). Of<br />
course these maps still lack in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> recurrence period or probability of<br />
occurrence. Due to the imprecision of input data<br />
used, the accuracy of predictions regarding the<br />
susceptibility <strong>for</strong> rapid mass-movements based on<br />
maps like the ones mentioned above is limited.<br />
(GBA), susceptibility maps in different scales <strong>and</strong><br />
with different methods (heuristic approach, neural<br />
network analysis) have already been generated. ([17]<br />
KOCIU et al., 2010, [21] MELZNER et al., 2010,<br />
[38] TILCH et al., 2009, [39] TILCH et al., 2010, [40]<br />
TILCH et al., 2010, [41] TILCH et al 2009).<br />
Legal situation, requirements by the law,<br />
responsibility of different authorities<br />
The key feature <strong>for</strong> susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping is a good documentation of historic<br />
Fig. 5: Susceptibility map <strong>for</strong> spontaneous shallow l<strong>and</strong>slide at Gasen – Haslau ([35] Schwarz et al 2009).<br />
Abb. 5: Dispositionskarte für spontane, flachgründige Rutschungen im Bereich Gasen-Haslau ([35]Schwarz et al 2009).<br />
events, a thorough mapping of the phenomena<br />
involved <strong>and</strong> an accurate interpretation of the<br />
failure with the subsequent processes.<br />
The WLV is legally obliged to do an<br />
inventory of all events regarding natural <strong>hazard</strong>s,<br />
such as torrential processes, avalanches, rock-falls<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides in the so called “Wildbach- und<br />
Lawinenkataster – WLK” ([8] Forstgesetz 1975).<br />
The GBA defines its very own tasks, among others:<br />
“the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> evaluation of geogenically<br />
induced natural <strong>hazard</strong>s". These inventories<br />
(WLV, GBA, geological surveys of provinces like<br />
Carinthia) are established to guarantee a complete<br />
documentation of processes <strong>and</strong> events that can<br />
eventually endanger infrastructure <strong>and</strong>/or people.<br />
The data collected in the inventories allow <strong>for</strong><br />
better in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> further evaluation of where,<br />
when, how often <strong>and</strong> with which intensities those<br />
events took place. These inventories can <strong>for</strong>m<br />
an important basis <strong>for</strong> the elaboration of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps <strong>and</strong> related <strong>hazard</strong> zones, which give the<br />
authorities good evidence to optimize l<strong>and</strong>-use<br />
planning <strong>and</strong> avoid areas that tend to be exposed<br />
to natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. For already developed areas,<br />
the <strong>assessment</strong> of the type of process, magnitude,<br />
run-out, location, frequency etc. allows <strong>for</strong> a better<br />
priority-rating <strong>and</strong> design of mitigation measures.<br />
The elaboration of <strong>hazard</strong> zone maps<br />
([8] Forstgesetz 1975 <strong>and</strong> [2] BGBl. 436/1976)<br />
<strong>for</strong> potentially endangered zones caused by<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (except flooding by rivers <strong>and</strong><br />
earthquakes, which are done by other authorities)<br />
<strong>for</strong> all communities is the task of the Austrian<br />
Torrent <strong>and</strong> Avalanche Control (WLV).<br />
The delineation of potential emmissionzones<br />
of rapid mass movements, such as rock falls<br />
<strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides, are not m<strong>and</strong>atory <strong>and</strong> there<strong>for</strong>e<br />
can be illustrated as “brown <strong>hazard</strong> indication<br />
areas” by the WLV.<br />
The legal implication of these indication<br />
areas lies in the obligation of the authorities<br />
issuing building permits to consult an expert to<br />
evaluate the <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>for</strong> the planned construction<br />
site explicitly, otherwise the community can be<br />
excluded from public funding <strong>for</strong> the financing of<br />
mitigation measures in the future.<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards, guidelines, official <strong>and</strong> legal documents<br />
Several st<strong>and</strong>ards issued by the IAEG (Internat.<br />
Association of Engineering Geology –UNESCO<br />
Working Party of World L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory<br />
[42] to [47]) exist <strong>for</strong> the documentation <strong>and</strong><br />
classification of l<strong>and</strong>slides. Furthermore, <strong>for</strong> the<br />
documentation of l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> rock fall events<br />
(avalanches <strong>and</strong> torrential processes are covered<br />
as well) there is a short course of the Universität<br />
für Bodenkultur Wien, Dpt. f. Bautechnik und<br />
Naturgefahren, Inst. f. <strong>Alpine</strong> Naturgefahren,<br />
which certifies documentalists <strong>for</strong> those processes.<br />
For the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> evaluation of rock<br />
fall processes <strong>and</strong> the design of protection<br />
measures an Austrian St<strong>and</strong>ard is currently under<br />
development ([28] ONR 24810: Technischer<br />
Steinschlagschutz).<br />
State of the art in the practice<br />
The code of practice is to be brought up to the<br />
state of the art due to the absence of binding<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards. The state of the art according to the<br />
“Wasserrechtsgesetz WRG 1959 §12a(1)” is<br />
defined in Austria as the following: The use of<br />
modern technological methods, equipment <strong>and</strong><br />
modes of operation with proven functionality<br />
which represent the status of progress based on<br />
relevant scientific expertise.<br />
Rock fall <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
The state of the art regarding the <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
evaluation of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>for</strong> rock fall processes can
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be described by the following workflow. The<br />
methods to be applied are just roughly described,<br />
<strong>for</strong> a detailed description see the cited literature.<br />
Depending on the objective of the <strong>assessment</strong>, the<br />
tools to be applied may vary in respect to the scale<br />
of the result, being more coarse at regional scale<br />
<strong>and</strong> detailed at slope-scale.<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ard procedure <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of rock fall<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s (best practice):<br />
Preparation<br />
• Definition of the boundaries of the project<br />
area in compliance with the stakeholder<br />
• Acquisition of basic data (topografic maps,<br />
geology, l<strong>and</strong> use, literature, studies etc.)<br />
• Collection of historic event in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
(written <strong>and</strong> oral)<br />
Field work:<br />
• Collection of properties of the <strong>for</strong>est (if<br />
relevant), identification (by field work <strong>and</strong>/<br />
or according to e. g. [12] JABOYEDOFF<br />
1999) <strong>and</strong><br />
• Evaluation of detachment areas<br />
description of discontinuities<br />
(type, dip/direction, opening, filling …),<br />
properties of rock mass,<br />
relevant failure mechanisms,<br />
probabilistic distribution of<br />
joint-bordered rock bodies<br />
• Scree slopes: block-size distribution<br />
(statistics)<br />
• Analysis of rock fall processes ([22]<br />
MELZNER et al 2010, [23] MELZNER et al<br />
2010, [24] MÖLK 2008):<br />
Rough estimation of run out e. g. by<br />
shadow angle (regional scale)<br />
2D or 3D modelling (probabilistic):<br />
provides run out length, energy <strong>and</strong><br />
bouncing-height distributions <strong>for</strong> slopescale<br />
problems<br />
Fig. 6: Delineation of potential conflict areas at regional extent<br />
using an empirical model ([21] Melzner et al 2010).<br />
Abb. 6: Abgrenzung potenzieller Wirkungsbereiche mittel einfachen<br />
empirischen Modellansätzen ([21] Melzner et al 2010).<br />
For the design of mitigation measures, a<br />
probabilistic approach is going to be defined<br />
as a st<strong>and</strong>ard procedure in Austria ([28] ONR<br />
24810) following the concept of partial factors of<br />
safety ([26] EUROCODES) <strong>for</strong> actions/resistances<br />
<strong>and</strong> varying accepted probabilities of failure<br />
depending on the casualty <strong>and</strong> reliability-classes<br />
of [27] Eurocode 0.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
General<br />
The combination of a rotational <strong>and</strong> a translational<br />
sliding mechanism is called a compound slide.<br />
These may develop in horizontally stratified soils<br />
<strong>and</strong> rocks, where the upper part of the slope shows<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides present complex natural phenomena<br />
<strong>for</strong> both the variability of processes <strong>and</strong> the<br />
dimensions. A l<strong>and</strong>slide may exhibit a translational<br />
sheet slide of some square meters involving the<br />
ground surface or a deep seated mass movement<br />
of several cubic kilometres.<br />
Rapid l<strong>and</strong>slides with reference to [6]<br />
CRUDEN & VARNES (1996) feature velocities<br />
of some metres per minute to several meters per<br />
second. In Austria, the main processes exhibit<br />
different slides <strong>and</strong> debris slides. Very rapid to<br />
rapid flow slides, which one can find <strong>for</strong> example<br />
in Sc<strong>and</strong>inavia or in Canada, have no relevance<br />
in Austria.<br />
Slides include rotational, translational<br />
<strong>and</strong> compound slides. Rotational slides own a<br />
circular sliding surface, which results from shear<br />
failure in relatively homogenous rock or soil of low<br />
a rotational failure which is constrained by a plane<br />
of weakness at the base (e. g. a claystone layer).<br />
A process that frequently can be observed<br />
in Austria are debris slides (e. g. Gasen <strong>and</strong> Haslau<br />
2005, Vorarlberg). These failures occur in porous<br />
soils, especially after extraordinary water input<br />
resulting from precipitation <strong>and</strong>/or snow melt<br />
leading to an excess of pore water pressure. The<br />
mass movement often starts as a rotational slide,<br />
which turns into a debris flow down slope.<br />
When assessing l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>s, it<br />
is important to distinguish between preparatory<br />
factors <strong>and</strong> the triggers ([46] WL/WPLI 1994). The<br />
triggering of the occurrence of a mass movement is<br />
the last step of destabilization over a longer period<br />
of time. Concerning [37] THERZAGHI (1950) the<br />
stability of slopes is stated by the factor of safety,<br />
which is expressed by the ratio between driving<br />
strength. Translational<br />
slides take place in<br />
rock on <strong>for</strong>given more<br />
or less planar features<br />
like bedding planes,<br />
joints etc. The failure<br />
results when the shear<br />
resistance on the plane<br />
is exceeded. Relatively<br />
often one can find<br />
these slides in the soil<br />
cover of the ground,<br />
called sheet slides,<br />
where the sliding<br />
surface is <strong>for</strong>med by a<br />
weak clay layer, such<br />
as a gley horizon in the<br />
range of groundwater<br />
fluctuations.<br />
Fig. 7: An Example of changes of the factor of safety with time after [46] WL/WPLI (1994)<br />
Abb. 7: Beispiel für die Veränderung der Sicherheit eines Einhanges über die Zeit,<br />
nach [46] WL/WPLI (1994)
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<strong>for</strong>ces <strong>and</strong> resisting <strong>for</strong>ces. Stable slopes feature a<br />
factor of safety over one, meaning that the resisting<br />
<strong>for</strong>ces exceed the driving <strong>for</strong>ces. If the driving<br />
<strong>for</strong>ces are greater than the resisting <strong>for</strong>ces the slope<br />
fails, i.e. the factor of safety drops under one.<br />
Fig. 5 ([46] WL/WPLI 1994) shows the<br />
development of a stable slope to one that fails.<br />
Since the slope is exposed to weathering, erosion<br />
processes etc. the factor of safety of the slope<br />
decreases to the point where it is close to failure<br />
(marginally stable). At this point the slope is<br />
susceptible to many triggers.<br />
When assessing l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> the<br />
following in<strong>for</strong>mation is needed regarding the<br />
ground conditions:<br />
• geology <strong>and</strong> structures<br />
• hydrogeology,<br />
• type of process<br />
• velocity of the process<br />
• geotechnical properties of materials<br />
involved<br />
• potential role of human activities (triggers?).<br />
State of the practice in l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>assessment</strong><br />
Conventional methods are based on observations<br />
of potentially unstable slopes. Aerial photos,<br />
both stereographic <strong>and</strong> orthophotos, have been<br />
used since decades to detect these slopes by<br />
characteristic geomorphological phenomena in<br />
combination with available geological maps ([4]<br />
BUNZA 1996, [14] KIENHOLZ 1995). This first<br />
analysis is completed by mapping in the field. The<br />
data are commonly presented in l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps, which show the spatial distribution of<br />
different <strong>hazard</strong> classes. Additionally chronicles,<br />
which occasionally exist at the town halls, turned<br />
out to be very useful.<br />
State of the art in l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>assessment</strong><br />
For several years, high resolution Lidar data<br />
have been available <strong>for</strong> most regions in Austria<br />
bearing l<strong>and</strong>slide activity. They are a powerful<br />
tool to recognize geomorphological structures<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides ([49] ZANGERL et al., 2008). A<br />
main advantage of Lidar data in comparison<br />
to conventional photos is the in<strong>for</strong>mation on<br />
shaded areas <strong>and</strong> of areas covered with wood.<br />
Additionally, remote sensing systems (e.g.<br />
airborne <strong>and</strong> satellite-based multispectral <strong>and</strong><br />
radar images) provide in<strong>for</strong>mation on unstable,<br />
slowly creeping slopes, which may fail <strong>and</strong><br />
transfer into a rapid moving masses ([31] PRAGER<br />
et al., 2009).<br />
Until recently, susceptibility/<strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps in Austria were often made on dem<strong>and</strong>.<br />
For some years authorities (LReg Kärnten, WLV<br />
Oberösterreich und Vorarlberg) are going to make<br />
comprehensive <strong>hazard</strong> maps giving a basis on<br />
decision-making <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> development.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide inventories (databases of WLV, GBA,<br />
several federal states) in combination with GIS<br />
applications are used to get rapid in<strong>for</strong>mation to<br />
areas prone to l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
Collected surface data in combination<br />
with subsurface data gained from trenches<br />
<strong>and</strong> boreholes or seismic refraction, groundpenetrating<br />
radar <strong>and</strong> electrical resistivity profiles<br />
allow <strong>for</strong> the drawing of an underground-model<br />
<strong>and</strong> deduce the type of failure mechanism which<br />
is most likely to occur.<br />
Geotechnical data are also required<br />
to assess the factor of safety <strong>and</strong> the probability<br />
of failure by means of analytical calculations<br />
or numerical modelling (e.g. [29] Poisel et al.<br />
2006). Additional in<strong>for</strong>mation on the process<br />
can be provided by a monitoring system. This<br />
serves as a check <strong>for</strong> the taken assumptions<br />
<strong>and</strong> an evaluation of the mechanical model.<br />
Furthermore, a monitoring allows the prediction<br />
of failure time under certain circumstances (e.g.<br />
[9] FUKUZONO 1985, [19] KRÄHENBÜHL<br />
2006, [32] ROSE & HUNGR 2007)<br />
Future development<br />
The development of <strong>for</strong>ecast-models <strong>for</strong> the<br />
prognosis of the location <strong>and</strong>/or time of rapid<br />
gravitational mass movements to take place<br />
or even the meteorological settings which will<br />
trigger such events is at an early stage. Due to<br />
the fact that the authorities are strongly asking <strong>for</strong><br />
such tools, many practitioners <strong>and</strong> scientists are<br />
focusing on that topic.<br />
The multitude of parameters influencing<br />
the development of the erosion processes in<br />
question will keep the stakes high <strong>and</strong> will not<br />
allow <strong>for</strong> providing the authorities with the accurate<br />
models they ask <strong>for</strong> within a considerable time.<br />
Given the necessary detailed parameters, such as<br />
geology, hydrogeology, geotechnical parameters<br />
etc., triggering, influencing or allowing <strong>for</strong> the<br />
processes in question are at h<strong>and</strong>, <strong>and</strong> all the<br />
necessary models are developed, it is highly likely<br />
that they will work in certain regions with similar<br />
or corresponding geological, morphological <strong>and</strong><br />
meteorological conditions only.<br />
The accuracy of these models will<br />
necessarily depend highly on a thorough<br />
calibration with well-documented events.<br />
This emphasizes the necessity of a consistent<br />
documentation of events, to provide the modeldevelopers<br />
with calibration data.<br />
This means that the expertise of experts<br />
applied at defined locations with all the necessary<br />
field work <strong>and</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> of natural parameters,<br />
fed in apt models will not become obsolete in<br />
the near <strong>and</strong> very probably not even in the far<br />
future. Models showing the disposition of a given<br />
environment to tend to mass-movements <strong>and</strong><br />
also <strong>for</strong>ecasting the location, time <strong>and</strong> run-out<br />
of such processes will be a precious tool <strong>for</strong> the<br />
experts although a replacement of a thorough<br />
evaluation of the conditions on site is not to be<br />
expected anytime.<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Michael Mölk<br />
Forsttechnischer Dienst für<br />
Wildbach und Lawinenverbauung,<br />
Geologische Stelle<br />
Liebeneggstr. 11<br />
6020 Innsbruck<br />
michael.moelk@die-wildbach.at<br />
Thomas Sausgruber<br />
Forsttechnischer Dienst für<br />
Wildbach und Lawinenverbauung<br />
Geologische Stelle<br />
Liebeneggstr. 11<br />
6020 Innsbruck<br />
thomas.sausgruber@die-wildbach.at<br />
Richard Bäk<br />
Abt. 15 Umwelt<br />
Geologie+Bodenschutz<br />
Flatschacher Straße 70<br />
9020 Klagenfurt<br />
richard.baek@ktn.gv.at<br />
Arben Kociu<br />
Geologische Bundesanstalt<br />
Fachabteilung Ingenieurgeologie<br />
Neulinggasse 38<br />
1030 Wien<br />
arben.kociu@geologie.ac.at
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Seite 92<br />
Seite 93<br />
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Einfluss auf mittels heuristischer Methode erstellte Dispositionskarten<br />
für <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen im Lockergestein - eine Fallstudie im Bereich<br />
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[43] WP/WLI - Working Party on L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory (International<br />
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[44] WP/WLI - Working Party on L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory (International<br />
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[45] WP/WLI - Working Party on L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory (International<br />
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[46] WP/WLI - Working Party on L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory (International<br />
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[47] WP/WLI - Working Party on L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory (International<br />
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52, Paris 1995<br />
[48] WYLLIE D. C. (2006): Risk management of rock fall <strong>hazard</strong>s. – Sea<br />
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[11] HUTCHSINSON, J.N. (1988):<br />
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[28] ONR 24810:<br />
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[30] POSCH-TRÖZMÜLLER, G. (2010):<br />
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[31] PRAGER, Ch.; ZANGERL, Ch.; NAGLER, Th. (2009):<br />
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[33] RUDOLF-MIKLAU F. & SCHMIDT F. (2004):<br />
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[18] KOLMER, Ch. (2009):<br />
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[19] KRÄHENBÜHL R. (2006):<br />
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[34] RUFF, M. (2005):<br />
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Karlsruhe, 2005.<br />
[35] SCHWARZ, L., TILCH, N. & KOCIU. A. (2009):<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide sucseptibility mapping by means of artificial Neuronal Networks<br />
per<strong>for</strong>med <strong>for</strong> the region Gasen-Haslau (eastern Styria, Austria) – 6th<br />
European Congress on regional Geoscientific Cartography <strong>and</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Systems. (http://www.geologie.ac.at/pdf/Poster/poster_2009_euregio.pdf)
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Seite 94<br />
Seite 95<br />
HUGO RAETZO, BERNARD LOUP<br />
Geological Hazard Assessment in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
Geologische Gefahrenbeurteilung in der Schweiz<br />
Summary:<br />
Geological <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>s are based on Swiss laws dealing with natural <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
Guidelines are published by the Federal Office <strong>for</strong> the Environment (FOEN/BAFU). According<br />
to the integrated risk management, the methods are applied <strong>for</strong> all natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
floods, snow avalanches). The <strong>hazard</strong> maps are dealing with five degrees: high (red), medium<br />
(blue), low (yellow), residual (yellow-white), no <strong>hazard</strong> (white).<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Geologische Gefahren werden in der Schweiz gemäß den eidgenössischen Gesetzen über den<br />
Wald und den Wasserbau erhoben und beurteilt. Dazu hat das zuständige Bundesamt (heute<br />
das Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU) entsprechende Empfehlungen und Richtlinien veröffentlicht.<br />
Im Sinne des integralen Risikomanagements werden für alle Gefahrenprozesse vergleichbare<br />
Methoden angewendet und anschließend in der Planung umgesetzt. Das gilt für geologische<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen, Hochwasser und Lawinen. Für diese Prozesse werden Gefahrenkarten<br />
erstellt, die immer fünf Gefahrenstufen ausscheiden: Hohe, mittlere und geringe Gefahr sowie<br />
Restgefährdung und keine Gefährdung. Daraus entstehen die roten, blauen, gelben, gelb-weiß<br />
gestreiften und weißen Zonen auf den Gefahrenkarten.<br />
Introduction<br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong> is a country exposed to many natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s. These <strong>hazard</strong>s include earthquakes, floods,<br />
<strong>for</strong>est fires, snow avalanches, rock falls <strong>and</strong> debris<br />
flows. More than 6% of Switzerl<strong>and</strong> is affected by<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s due to slope instability. These areas occur<br />
mainly in the Prealps <strong>and</strong> in the Alps. The R<strong>and</strong>a<br />
rock avalanches of 1991 are a good example of the<br />
potential of such <strong>hazard</strong>s. Thirty million m 3 of fallen<br />
debris cut off the valley <strong>for</strong> two weeks. In another<br />
case, a l<strong>and</strong>slide was reactivated with historically<br />
unprecedented rates of displacement up to 6 m/<br />
day, causing the destruction of the village of Falli-<br />
Hölli in the year 1994.<br />
The legal <strong>and</strong> technical background<br />
conditions <strong>for</strong> the protection against l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
have undergone considerable changes since the<br />
80’s. The flooding of 1987 promoted the federal<br />
authorities to review criteria governing natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> protection. The Federal Flood Protection<br />
Law <strong>and</strong> the Federal Forest Law came into <strong>for</strong>ce in<br />
1991. Their purpose is to protect the environment,<br />
human lives <strong>and</strong> property from the damage caused<br />
by water, mass movements, snow avalanches <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>for</strong>est fires. Following the promulgation of these<br />
new regulations, greater emphasis has been<br />
placed on preventive measures. Consequently,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>, the identification of protection<br />
objectives, purposeful planning of preventive<br />
measures <strong>and</strong> the limitation of the residual<br />
risk are of central importance. The cantons are<br />
now required to establish inventories <strong>and</strong> maps<br />
denoting areas of <strong>hazard</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> to take them<br />
into account in the l<strong>and</strong> use planning. For the<br />
improvement of the inventories <strong>and</strong> the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
maps, the federal government provides subsides<br />
to the cantonal authorities (50%).<br />
In a first step the l<strong>and</strong>slides are identified<br />
<strong>and</strong> classified. During this phase inventories <strong>and</strong><br />
maps of phenomena are established. In a second<br />
step the <strong>hazard</strong> of l<strong>and</strong>slides is assessed according<br />
to the methods used in the Swiss strategy against<br />
all natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (e.g. floods, avalanches). The<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> is then integrated into l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
planning <strong>and</strong> in the risk management (3. step).<br />
First step: Hazard identification<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides can be classified according to the<br />
estimated depth of the sliding plane (< 2m: shallow;<br />
2-10 m: intermediate; >10 m: deep) <strong>and</strong> the long<br />
term mean velocity of the movements (< 2 cm/year:<br />
substabilised; 2-10 cm/year: slow; > 10 cm/year:<br />
active). These depth <strong>and</strong> velocity parameters are<br />
not always sufficient to estimate the potential<br />
danger of a l<strong>and</strong>slide. Differential movements must<br />
also be taken into account since they can generate<br />
buildings to topple or cracks to open.<br />
Rock falls are characterized by their speed<br />
(< 40 m/s), the size of their elements (Østone < 0.5 m,<br />
Øblock > 0.5 m) <strong>and</strong> the volumes involved. Rock<br />
avalanches with huge volumes (v > 1million m 3 )<br />
<strong>and</strong> high speed (> 40 m/s) can also happen<br />
although these are rare.<br />
Due to heavy rainfall, debris flows <strong>and</strong><br />
very shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides are frequent in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>.<br />
These are moderate volume (< 20,000 m 3 ) <strong>and</strong><br />
high speed features (1-10 m/s). These phenomena<br />
are very dangerous <strong>and</strong> annually cause important<br />
traffic disruptions <strong>and</strong> fatalities.<br />
A map of l<strong>and</strong>slide phenomena <strong>and</strong><br />
an associated technical report provide signs<br />
<strong>and</strong> indications of slope instability as observed<br />
in the field. The map represents phenomena<br />
related to dangerous processes <strong>and</strong> delineates the<br />
vulnerable areas.<br />
Field interpretation of these phenomena<br />
allows areas vulnerable to l<strong>and</strong>slides to be<br />
mapped. This is based on the observation <strong>and</strong><br />
interpretation of l<strong>and</strong><strong>for</strong>ms, on structural <strong>and</strong><br />
geomechanical properties of slope instabilities,
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<strong>and</strong> on historical traces. Extensive knowledge of<br />
past <strong>and</strong> current events in a catchment area is<br />
essential if zones of future instability are to be<br />
identified.<br />
Some recommendations <strong>for</strong> the uni<strong>for</strong>m<br />
classification, representation <strong>and</strong> documentation<br />
of natural processes have been established by the<br />
Swiss federal administration. Consequently, the<br />
definition of features on a natural <strong>hazard</strong> map is<br />
based on a uni<strong>for</strong>m legend <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides, floods<br />
<strong>and</strong> snow avalanches. The different phenomena<br />
are represented by different colours <strong>and</strong> symbols.<br />
RED: high <strong>hazard</strong><br />
• People are at risk of injury both inside <strong>and</strong> outside buildings.<br />
• A rapid destruction of buildings is possible.<br />
or:<br />
An additional distinction is made between<br />
potential, inferred or proved events. According to<br />
the scale of mapping (e.g. 1:50,000 <strong>for</strong> the Master<br />
Plan, 1:5,000 <strong>for</strong> the Local Plan), this legend may<br />
contain a large number of symbols.<br />
Inventories: Recommendations <strong>for</strong><br />
the definition of a uni<strong>for</strong>m Register <strong>for</strong> slope<br />
instability events has been developed, including<br />
special sheets <strong>for</strong> each phenomenon (l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
floods, snow avalanches). Each canton is currently<br />
compiling the data <strong>for</strong> its own register. These<br />
databases (StorMe) are transferred to the FOEN to<br />
• Events occurring with a lower intensity, but with a higher probability of occurrence. In this<br />
case, people are mainly at risk outside buildings, or buildings can no longer house people.<br />
The red zone mainly designates a prohibition domain (area where development is prohibited).<br />
BLUE: moderate <strong>hazard</strong><br />
• People are at risk of injury outside buildings. Risk is considerably lower inside buildings.<br />
• Damage to buildings should be expected, but not a rapid destruction, as long as the<br />
construction type has been adapted to the present conditions.<br />
The blue zone is mainly a regulation domain, in which severe damage can be reduced by<br />
means of appropriate protective measures (area with restrictive regulations).<br />
YELLOW: low <strong>hazard</strong><br />
• People are at slow risk of injury.<br />
• Slight damage to buildings is possible.<br />
The yellow zone is mainly an alerting domain (area where people are notified at possible<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>).<br />
YELLOW-WHITE HATCHING: residual danger<br />
Low probability of high intensity event occurrence can be designated by yellow-white hatching.<br />
The yellow-white hatched zone is mainly an alerting domain, highlighting a residual danger.<br />
WHITE: no danger or negligible danger, according to currently available in<strong>for</strong>mation.<br />
allow an overview of the different natural disasters<br />
<strong>and</strong> potential associated damage in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>.<br />
Second step: Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> of l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
Hazard is defined as the occurrence of a potentially<br />
damaging natural phenomena within a specific<br />
period of time in a given area. Hazard <strong>assessment</strong><br />
implies the determination of the magnitude or<br />
intensity of an event over time. <strong>Mass</strong> movements<br />
often correspond to gradual (l<strong>and</strong>slides) or unique<br />
(falls, debris flows) events. It is sometimes difficult<br />
to make an <strong>assessment</strong> of the return period of<br />
a massive rock avalanche, or to predict when a<br />
dormant l<strong>and</strong>slide may reactivate.<br />
Some federal recommendations have<br />
been proposed in the 90’s <strong>for</strong> the management<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> floods. Since 1984 similar<br />
recommendations have already existed <strong>for</strong> snow<br />
avalanches. Hazard maps, according to the federal<br />
“recommendations“ (guidelines), express three<br />
degrees of danger, represented by corresponding<br />
colours: red, blue <strong>and</strong> yellow (Fig. 1). The various<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zones are delineated according to the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide phenomena maps, the register of slope<br />
instability events <strong>and</strong> additional documents.<br />
Numerical models (analysis of block trajectories,<br />
calculations of factors of safety) may be used to<br />
determine the extent of areas endangered by rock<br />
falls, or to present quantitative data on the stability<br />
of a potentially unstable area.<br />
A chart of the degrees of danger has been<br />
developed in order to guarantee a homogeneous<br />
<strong>and</strong> uni<strong>for</strong>m means of <strong>assessment</strong> of the different<br />
kinds of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s across Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
(floods, snow avalanches, l<strong>and</strong>slides…) – <strong>for</strong><br />
example, Fig.1 <strong>for</strong> fall processes. Two major<br />
parameters are used to classify the danger: the<br />
intensity, <strong>and</strong> the probability (frequency or return<br />
period). Three degrees of danger have been<br />
defined. These are represented by the colours red,<br />
blue <strong>and</strong> yellow. The estimated degrees of danger<br />
have implications <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use. They indicate the<br />
level of danger to people <strong>and</strong> to animals, as well<br />
as to property. In the case of mass movement,<br />
people are considered safer inside the buildings<br />
than outside.<br />
A description of the magnitude of<br />
potential damage caused by an event is based on<br />
the identification of threshold values <strong>for</strong> degrees<br />
of danger, according to possible damage to<br />
property. The intensity parameter is divided into<br />
three degrees:<br />
High intensity: People <strong>and</strong> animals are at risk<br />
of injury inside buildings; heavy damage to<br />
buildings or even destruction of buildings is<br />
possible.<br />
Medium intensity: People <strong>and</strong> animals are<br />
at risk of injury outside buildings, but are at<br />
low risk inside buildings; lighter damage to<br />
buildings should be expected.<br />
Low intensity: People <strong>and</strong> animals are slightly<br />
threatened, even outside buildings (except<br />
in the case of stone <strong>and</strong> block avalanches,<br />
which can harm or kill people <strong>and</strong> animals);<br />
superficial damage to buildings should be<br />
expected.<br />
Criteria <strong>for</strong> the intensity <strong>assessment</strong>:<br />
There is generally no applicable measure to define<br />
the intensity of slope movements. However,<br />
indicative values can be used to define classes<br />
of high, mean <strong>and</strong> low intensity. Applied criteria<br />
usually refer to the zone affected by the process,<br />
or to the threatened zone.<br />
For rock falls, the significant criterion is the<br />
impact energy in the exposed zone (translation<br />
<strong>and</strong> rotation energy). The 300 kJ limit corresponds<br />
to the impact energy to which can be resisted<br />
by a rein<strong>for</strong>ced concrete wall, as long as the<br />
structure is properly constructed. The 30 kJ limit
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Phenomena Low intensity Medium intensity High intensity<br />
Rock fall E < 30 kJ 30 < E < 300 kJ E > 300 kJ<br />
Rock avalanche - - E > 300 kJ<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide v ≤ 2 cm/y v : 2-10 cm/y v>10 cm/year<br />
Earth flows <strong>and</strong><br />
debris flows<br />
dv, D, T dv, D, T dv, D, T<br />
potential e < 0.5 m 0.5 m < e < 2 m e > 2 m<br />
real - h < 1 m h > 1 m<br />
v > 0.1 m/day <strong>for</strong><br />
shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides;<br />
displacement > 1 m<br />
per event<br />
E: kinetic energy; e: thickness of the unstable layer; h: height of the earthflow deposit; v: long term mean<br />
velocity, dv: variation of velocity (accelerations), D: differential movements, T: thickness of the l<strong>and</strong>slide.<br />
correlated with recurrent meteorological conditions.<br />
The probability of mass movement occurrence<br />
should mainly be established <strong>for</strong> a given duration of<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use. Thus, the probability of potential damage<br />
during a certain period of time, or the degree<br />
of safety of a specific area should be taken into<br />
account, rather than the frequency of dangers.<br />
The probability of occurrence <strong>and</strong> the<br />
return period can be mathematically linked, if<br />
attributed to the same reference period:<br />
p = 1 – (1 – 1/ T) n<br />
Whereby p is the probability of occurrence, n<br />
represents the given time period (<strong>for</strong> example 30<br />
or 50 years), <strong>and</strong> T is the return period.<br />
For example, considering a time period of 30<br />
years, an event with a 30-year return period has<br />
a 64% probability of occurrence (or about 2 in<br />
3), of 26% (or about 1 in 4) <strong>for</strong> a 100-year return<br />
period, <strong>and</strong> of 10% (or about 1 in 10) <strong>for</strong> a 300-<br />
year return period.<br />
The calculation of the probability of<br />
occurrence clearly shows that even <strong>for</strong> a rather<br />
high return period (300 years), the residual danger<br />
remains not significant.<br />
In principle, the probability scale does<br />
not exclude very rare events, neither does it<br />
exclude the intensity scale <strong>for</strong> high magnitude<br />
events. Hazards with a very low probability of<br />
occurrence are usually classified as residual<br />
dangers under the st<strong>and</strong>ard classification. In the<br />
corresponds to the maximum energy that oak-<br />
converted to danger classes. Other criteria as<br />
wood stiff barriers can resist (e.g. rail sleeper).<br />
For rock avalanches, the high intensity class<br />
(E > 300 kJ) is always reached in the impact zone.<br />
The target zones affected by block avalanches<br />
of low to medium intensity can only be roughly<br />
delineated. There<strong>for</strong>e, it is recommended not to<br />
artificially delineate zones affected by low to<br />
medium intensities.<br />
Most l<strong>and</strong>slides: A low intensity movement has an<br />
annual mean speed of lower than 2 cm per year.<br />
A medium intensity has a speed ranging from<br />
one to 10 cm per year. The high intensity class<br />
is assigned to velocities higher than 10 cm per<br />
velocity changes or accelerations (dv), differential<br />
movements (D) <strong>and</strong> thickness of the l<strong>and</strong>slide (T)<br />
can lead to increase resp. to reduce the intensity<br />
class as derived from the long term velocity.<br />
For earth flows <strong>and</strong> debris flows,<br />
the intensity depends on the thickness of the<br />
potentially unstable layer. The boundaries defining<br />
the three intensity classes are set at 0.5 m <strong>and</strong> 2 m.<br />
Probability: Probability of l<strong>and</strong>slides is defined<br />
according to three classes. The class limits are set<br />
at 30 <strong>and</strong> 300 years <strong>and</strong> are equivalent to those<br />
established <strong>for</strong> snow avalanches <strong>and</strong> floods. The<br />
100-year limit corresponds to a value applied in<br />
INTENSITY<br />
low medium high<br />
RED<br />
BLUE<br />
YELLOW<br />
YELLOW / WHITE<br />
year <strong>and</strong> to shear zones or zones with clear<br />
the design of flood protection structures.<br />
differential movements (D). It may also be assigned<br />
The results of probability calculations to<br />
if reactivated phenomena have been observed or,<br />
if horizontal displacements greater than one meter<br />
per event may occur. Finally, the high intensity<br />
determine if mass movements occur remain very<br />
uncertain. Unlike floods <strong>and</strong> snow avalanches, mass<br />
movements are usually non-recurrent processes.<br />
high<br />
medium<br />
PROBABILITY<br />
low<br />
very low<br />
class can also be assigned to very rapid shallow<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides (speed > 0.1 m/day). In the area affected<br />
by l<strong>and</strong>sliding field, intensity criteria can be directly<br />
The return period, there<strong>for</strong>e, only has a relative<br />
meaning, except <strong>for</strong> events involving stone <strong>and</strong><br />
block avalanches <strong>and</strong> earth flows, which can be<br />
Fig. 1: Matrix <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong> of <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
Abb. 1: Matrix für die Gefahrenbeurteilung
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domain of dangers related to mass movements,<br />
the limit <strong>for</strong> a residual danger has been set <strong>for</strong> an<br />
event with a 300-year return period.<br />
The degree of <strong>hazard</strong> is defined in a<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> matrix based on intensity <strong>and</strong> probability<br />
criteria (Raetzo & Loup 2009). The resulting<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> map is mainly used <strong>for</strong> planning (l<strong>and</strong><br />
use), while the design of protection measures<br />
needs more detailed investigations. In general<br />
the methods used are related to the product,<br />
scales <strong>and</strong> the risk in order to respect economic<br />
criteria: low ef<strong>for</strong>ts are done <strong>for</strong> the Swiss<br />
indicative map (level 1), important ef<strong>for</strong>ts<br />
are done when a <strong>hazard</strong> map is established<br />
or reviewed (level 2). Detailed analyses <strong>and</strong><br />
engineering calculations are <strong>for</strong>eseen <strong>for</strong> the<br />
planning of countermeasures (level 3). Applying<br />
this concept rising ef<strong>for</strong>ts <strong>for</strong> geological<br />
investigations are planned when the <strong>assessment</strong><br />
on the second or third level takes place.<br />
Third step: L<strong>and</strong> use planning <strong>and</strong> risk management<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> map is a basic document used in<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use planning. Natural <strong>hazard</strong>s should be<br />
taken into account particularly in the following<br />
situations:<br />
• Elaboration <strong>and</strong> improvement of cantonal<br />
Master Plan <strong>and</strong> Communal Local Plans <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong> use.<br />
• Planning, construction, trans<strong>for</strong>mation of<br />
buildings <strong>and</strong> infrastructures.<br />
• Granting of concessions <strong>and</strong> planning<br />
<strong>for</strong> construction <strong>and</strong> infrastructural<br />
installations.<br />
• Granting of subsidies <strong>for</strong> building <strong>and</strong><br />
development (road <strong>and</strong> rail networks,<br />
residences), as well as <strong>for</strong> slope stabilisation<br />
<strong>and</strong> protection measures.<br />
According to Art. 6 of the Federal Law <strong>for</strong> L<strong>and</strong><br />
use Planning, the cantons must identify all areas<br />
that are threatened by natural <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
The cantonal Master Plan is a basic<br />
document <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use planning, infrastructural<br />
coordination <strong>and</strong> accident prevention. It consists<br />
of a map <strong>and</strong> a technical report, <strong>and</strong> is based on<br />
studies. The Master Plan allows <strong>for</strong> deciding the<br />
following:<br />
• It shows how to coordinate activities<br />
associated with different l<strong>and</strong> uses.<br />
• It identifies the goals of planning <strong>and</strong><br />
specifies the necessary stages.<br />
• It provides legal constraints to the<br />
authorities in charge of l<strong>and</strong> use planning.<br />
The objectives of the Master Plan with respect to<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s are:<br />
• To early detect conflicts between l<strong>and</strong> use,<br />
development <strong>and</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
• To refine the survey of basic documents<br />
concerning natural <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
• To <strong>for</strong>mulate principles that can be applied<br />
by the cantons to the issue of protection<br />
against natural <strong>hazard</strong>.<br />
• To define necessary requirements <strong>and</strong><br />
m<strong>and</strong>ates to be used in subsequent<br />
planning stages.<br />
The constraints on Local Planning already allow<br />
<strong>and</strong> ensure appropriate management of natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s with respect to l<strong>and</strong> use. The objective<br />
of these constraints is to delineate danger zones<br />
by highlighting restrictions, or to establish legal<br />
frameworks leading to the same ends.<br />
At the same time danger zones can be<br />
delineated on the local plan with areas suitable<br />
<strong>for</strong> construction as well as additional protection<br />
zones.<br />
The degrees of danger are initially assigned<br />
according to their consequences <strong>for</strong> construction<br />
activity. They must minimise risks to the safety<br />
of people <strong>and</strong> animals, as well as minimising<br />
as possible damage to property. In agricultural<br />
zones, buildings affected by different degrees of<br />
danger are constrained by the same conditions as<br />
those in built-up areas.<br />
Conclusions<br />
In Switzerl<strong>and</strong> legal <strong>and</strong> technical references are<br />
published to clarify which responsibilities the<br />
authorities have <strong>and</strong> how the <strong>assessment</strong> has to<br />
be done in order to apply the concept of integral<br />
risk management. The <strong>hazard</strong> map indicates<br />
which areas are unsuitable <strong>for</strong> use, according<br />
to existing natural <strong>hazard</strong>. The integration of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps into l<strong>and</strong> use planning (including<br />
construction conditions, building licences)<br />
<strong>and</strong> the development of protective measures to<br />
minimise damage to property are main objectives.<br />
When the <strong>hazard</strong> map is compared with<br />
existing l<strong>and</strong> use conflicts may occur. Since it is<br />
difficult or impossible to change l<strong>and</strong> use, specific<br />
construction codes are required to reach the<br />
desired protection level. Hazard maps are also<br />
considered in planning protective measures as<br />
well as the installation of warning systems <strong>and</strong><br />
emergency plans. The federal recommendations<br />
are on attempt to mitigate natural disasters by<br />
restricting development on unstable areas.<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Hugo Raetzo<br />
Federal Office <strong>for</strong> the Environment FOEN<br />
Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU<br />
3003 Bern<br />
Schweiz<br />
Bernard Loup<br />
Federal Office <strong>for</strong> the Environment FOEN<br />
Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU<br />
3003 Bern<br />
Schweiz<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
BUNDESAMT FÜR RAUMPLANUNG, BUNDESAMT FÜR<br />
WASSERWIRTSCHAFT & BUNDESAMT FÜR UMWELT, WALD UND<br />
LANDSCHAFT, (1997).<br />
Empfehlungen, Berücksichtigung der <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungsgefahren bei<br />
raumwirksamen Tätigkeiten, EDMZ, 3000 Bern.<br />
CRUDEN D.M. UND VARNES D.J.:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide types <strong>and</strong> processes. In: A. Keith Turner & Robert L. Schuster<br />
(eds): L<strong>and</strong>slide investigation <strong>and</strong> mitigation: 36-75. Transportation<br />
Research Board, special report 247. Washington: National Academy Press,<br />
1996.<br />
KIENHOLZ, H., KRUMMENACHER, B. et al.:<br />
Empfehlungen Symbolbaukasten zur Kartierung der Phänomene Ausgabe<br />
1995, Mitteilungen BUWAL Nr. 6, 41 S., Reihe Vollzug Umwelt VU-<br />
7502-D, Bern 1995.<br />
RAETZO et al.:<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> of mass movements – codes of practice in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>,<br />
International Association of Engineering Geology IAEG Bulletin, 2002.<br />
RAETZO, H. & LOUP, B.; BAFU:<br />
Schutz vor <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen. Technische Richtlinie als Vollzugshilfe.<br />
Entwurf 9. Sept. 2009.<br />
VARNES, D.J. <strong>and</strong> IAEG Commission on L<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> other <strong>Mass</strong>-<br />
<strong>Movements</strong>:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> zonation: a review of principles <strong>and</strong> practice. The<br />
UNESCO Press, Paris, 1984.
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STEFANO CAMPUS<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Mapping in Piemonte (Italy):<br />
Danger, Hazard & Risk<br />
Kartierung von Rutschungen im Piemont (Italien):<br />
Gefahren & Risiken<br />
Summary:<br />
This paper briefly describes the legal framework of l<strong>and</strong>slide danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk mapping<br />
in Italy <strong>and</strong> Piemonte. Laws or rules that indicate how a l<strong>and</strong>slide analysis (danger, <strong>hazard</strong>, risk)<br />
has to be done, do not exist. As a general remark, it has to be observed that public legislation<br />
defines general principles <strong>and</strong> lines of conduct, functions, activities <strong>and</strong> authorities involved,<br />
while the regional administrations apply restrictions on l<strong>and</strong> use through different regional laws.<br />
Keywords: L<strong>and</strong>slide, danger, <strong>hazard</strong>, risk, Piemonte, Italy<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Diese Abh<strong>and</strong>lung beschreibt kurz den gesetzlichen Rahmen der Kartografie von Rutschungsgefahren<br />
und -risiken in Italien und im Piemont. Es gibt keine Gesetze oder Verordnungen darüber,<br />
wie eine Rutschungsanalyse (Gefahren und Risiken) auszuführen ist. Als eine allgemeine<br />
Bemerkung ist festzustellen, dass die öffentliche Gesetzgebung allgemeine Prinzipien und<br />
Richtlinien, Funktionen, Aktivitäten und betreffende Befugnisse festlegt, die Regionalverwaltungen<br />
hingegen erlegen auf der unterschiedlichen l<strong>and</strong>esgesetzlichen Basis Einschränkungen<br />
hinsichtlich der Bodennutzung auf.<br />
Schlüsselwörter: Rutschung, Gefahr, Gefährdung, Risiko, Piemont, Italien<br />
Introduction<br />
When facing a natural <strong>hazard</strong>, risk management<br />
can be divided in several stages:<br />
a) danger characterization, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> vulnerability analysis;<br />
b) risk evaluation <strong>and</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>;<br />
c) risk prevention (protective works, l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
regulation, monitoring, etc.);<br />
d) crisis <strong>and</strong> post-crisis management;<br />
e) feedback from experience.<br />
It is essential to properly distinguish the three<br />
aspects of l<strong>and</strong>slides studies:<br />
• DANGER. Threat characterization (typology,<br />
morphology even quantitative, inventory…);<br />
• HAZARD. Spatial <strong>and</strong> temporal probability,<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting of evolution<br />
(scenarios) are needed;<br />
• RISK. Interaction between a threat having<br />
particular <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> human activities. We<br />
need vulnerability <strong>and</strong> damage analysis.<br />
These differences are theoretically well known by<br />
all technicians but often there are some problems<br />
when they have to be applied in a legal framework.<br />
So, it is not so unusual to find inventory maps used<br />
as <strong>hazard</strong> maps or damage maps called risk maps.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, we have to distinguish two situations:<br />
1) L<strong>and</strong>slides studies that have no influence from<br />
legal point of view. Typical cases are the studies<br />
carried out by universities about relevant<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides. The aim is, <strong>for</strong> example, to underst<strong>and</strong><br />
the mechanical features of instability or to study<br />
different ways of evolution of the phenomenon<br />
(scenarios) in order to assess residual risk. Any<br />
method to assess l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk can<br />
be used. They include statistical, deterministic,<br />
numerical, etc. methods <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
qualitative or matrix calculus <strong>for</strong> risk. L<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventory can be made by means of historical,<br />
morphological, etc. approach.<br />
2) L<strong>and</strong>slide studies that have direct consequences<br />
to l<strong>and</strong> planning laws, at local scale or higher.<br />
GIS methods allow <strong>for</strong> per<strong>for</strong>ming analyses<br />
over wide areas that are useful to be included<br />
in basin plans or master plans. National or local<br />
laws can require st<strong>and</strong>ard ways to present the<br />
results (common graphical signs on the maps,<br />
<strong>for</strong> example).<br />
Legal framework in Italy <strong>and</strong> Piemonte<br />
High Level Legislation (national level)<br />
The national Law n. 445/1908 (Transfer <strong>and</strong><br />
consolidation of unstable towns) <strong>and</strong> Royal<br />
Decree R.D. n. 3267/1923 (Establishment of areas<br />
subject to hydro-geological constrains) were the<br />
first public regulations on l<strong>and</strong> use planning. At<br />
the beginning of ‘70s, l<strong>and</strong> use management was<br />
transferred to the regions.<br />
The national Law n. 183/1989<br />
introduced l<strong>and</strong> use planning at a basin scale: the<br />
government sets the st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> general aims<br />
without fixing a methodology to analyze <strong>and</strong><br />
evaluate the dangers, <strong>hazard</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> risks related<br />
to natural phenomena. The same law designated<br />
the Autorità di Bacino (Basin Authorities) whose<br />
main goal is to draw up the Basin Plan, a tool <strong>for</strong><br />
planning actions <strong>and</strong> rules <strong>for</strong> conservation <strong>and</strong><br />
protection of the territory.<br />
About Po basin, the last plan adopted<br />
in 2001 is called PAI (Piano per l’Assetto<br />
Idrogeologico or Hydrogeological System Plan<br />
of River Po Basin). It tries to verify the geological<br />
instability of the whole territory as regards the<br />
l<strong>and</strong> use planning through a process of upgrading<br />
<strong>and</strong> feedback with the local urban management<br />
plans. Moreover, all the municipalities are<br />
classified according different risk levels, mainly<br />
from a qualitative point of view. For l<strong>and</strong>slides it<br />
has two atlases (1:25,000 scale):
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1) Atlas of Hydro-geological Risks (l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
floods, alluvial fans, avalanches) at the<br />
municipal level. Every municipality is valued<br />
on the basis of the <strong>hazard</strong>, vulnerability<br />
<strong>and</strong> expected damage. L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> is<br />
function of ratio between area of l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
within municipal boundaries <strong>and</strong> whole area<br />
of municipality.<br />
It has 4 qualitative classes:<br />
• R1-moderate risk. Social damages <strong>and</strong> few<br />
economic losses are possible.<br />
• R2-medium risk. Few damages to buildings<br />
<strong>and</strong> infrastructures without loss of<br />
functionality.<br />
• R3-high risk. Problems to human safety.<br />
Many damages <strong>and</strong> economic losses.<br />
• R4-very high risk. Deaths <strong>and</strong> severe<br />
injuries are possible.<br />
2) Atlas of L<strong>and</strong>slides. It is an inventory, in<br />
which polygons <strong>and</strong> points are divided in 3<br />
classes (fig. 1):<br />
• Fa-Area with Active L<strong>and</strong>slides (“very<br />
high <strong>hazard</strong>”). No new buildings or<br />
infrastructures are allowed. Only measures<br />
of protection <strong>and</strong> reduction of vulnerability;<br />
• Fq-Area with Quiescent L<strong>and</strong>slides (“high<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>”). Some enlargements are allowed.<br />
New buildings are allowed according to<br />
city development plan.<br />
• Fs-Area with Stabilized L<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
(“medium-moderate <strong>hazard</strong>”). The<br />
development of these areas is indicated in<br />
the city development plan.<br />
The catastrophic event of May 1998, which caused<br />
heavy damages <strong>and</strong> victims in municipalities<br />
of Sarno <strong>and</strong> Quindici (Campania), urged the<br />
Fig. 1: Example of Atlas of L<strong>and</strong>slides published by Po River Basin Authority (elaboration by Arpa Piemonte).<br />
Abb. 1: Beispiel des „Atlas of L<strong>and</strong>slides“ (Bergsturz-Atlas), veröffentlicht von Po River Basin Authority (Ausarbeitung von ARPA<br />
Piemonte).<br />
government to give answers <strong>for</strong> development<br />
regulation (to reduce or eliminate l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
losses). According to the national Law n.<br />
267/1998, the government en<strong>for</strong>ced legislative<br />
measures at the national level, including the<br />
procedure to define l<strong>and</strong>slide risk areas.<br />
Another important aspect of the<br />
Law n. 267/1998 regards the development of<br />
“extraordinary plans” to manage the situations of<br />
higher risk (R.M.E.-Aree a Rischio Molto Elevato),<br />
where safety problems or functional damages<br />
are possible. Local <strong>and</strong> regional authorities<br />
are obliged to define, design <strong>and</strong> apply proper<br />
measures to risk mitigation, with national funding.<br />
In Piedmont, these actions have been applied in<br />
some significant cases such as in Ceppo Morelli<br />
(Valle Anzasca in northern part of Piemonte),<br />
classified as a very high-risky area.<br />
Low Level Legislation (Local Urban Development Plan)<br />
The classification of areas made by the Po Basin<br />
Authority is a binding act. The municipality must<br />
adopt a new town development plan taking into<br />
account that classification. If the municipality<br />
wants to change PAI classification, a deep analysis<br />
of the areas has to be done to justify new l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
destination.<br />
Regione Piemonte Regional Law <strong>for</strong><br />
Urban Development L.R. n. 56/1977, which is the<br />
main legal instrument of l<strong>and</strong> use management at<br />
a local scale, as well as the Regional Law L.R. n.<br />
45/1989 which regulates l<strong>and</strong> use modification<br />
<strong>and</strong> trans<strong>for</strong>mation in areas subject to<br />
environmental protection, divides areas in more<br />
detailed classes having (almost) same meaning of<br />
PAI classification.<br />
In Piemonte, the local management plan<br />
(required by the Regional Law L.R. n. 56/1977)<br />
includes the danger/<strong>hazard</strong> zoning in order<br />
to identify l<strong>and</strong>slide prone areas on the basis<br />
of geological <strong>and</strong> morphological features <strong>and</strong><br />
historical analysis.<br />
In a state of emergency (as established by<br />
the Regional Law n. 38/1978, which regulate <strong>and</strong><br />
organise interventions related to severe instability<br />
phenomena), a specific article of the regional law<br />
56/1977 (art. 9/bis) allows inhibiting or suspending<br />
development in the involved areas. Consequently,<br />
new l<strong>and</strong>-use planning must be realised (upgrade/<br />
revision of the local management plan).<br />
The last integrations to this law<br />
(Circolare del Presidente della Giunta Regionale,<br />
n. 7/LAP/1996 <strong>and</strong> Nota Tecnica Esplicativa, n.<br />
12/1999) introduced the concept of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
risk zoning, classifying the whole territory in<br />
different classes where l<strong>and</strong> uses are precisely<br />
regulated <strong>and</strong> defined, where building is<br />
<strong>for</strong>bidden, where preventive measures have to be<br />
taken, etc…<br />
It is important to clarify that Regione<br />
Piemonte does not have an official regional<br />
Geological Survey. Some geological functions<br />
are executed by Arpa Piemonte (Agency<br />
<strong>for</strong> Environmental Protection) having two<br />
“geological” departments: one dedicated to<br />
Geological In<strong>for</strong>mative System, research <strong>and</strong><br />
applied projects, the other one deals with<br />
geological aspects of municipality urban plans.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, we produce l<strong>and</strong>slide danger,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk analyses that have not any legal<br />
consequences.<br />
Within many regional, national <strong>and</strong><br />
European projects, Arpa Piemonte carried<br />
out many experiences in fields of assessing<br />
methodology <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>:<br />
<strong>for</strong> instance, the IMIRILAND Project within Fifth<br />
Framework Programme, Interreg PROVIALP<br />
Project Fall or national Project of Geological<br />
Cartography <strong>for</strong> shallow <strong>and</strong> planar l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps in the southern hilly part of Piemonte<br />
region called Langhe (fig. 2).
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So complete coverage of basic in<strong>for</strong>mation is<br />
available (lithology, geotechnical geo-database,<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides inventory, etc…), but only few rigorous<br />
applications of <strong>hazard</strong> & risk <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
One of the available tools produced<br />
by Arpa Piemonte is the regional part of Italian<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides Inventory (IFFI). It is a national program<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory, sponsored by national<br />
Fig. 3: Arpa Piemonte Web-GIS In<strong>for</strong>mation Service of the IFFI Project.<br />
Abb. 3: ARPA Piemonte, Web-GIS In<strong>for</strong>mationsdienst des IFFI-Projekts.<br />
Fig. 2: Extract from the<br />
shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>hazard</strong><br />
map of 1:50,000 scale sheet<br />
Dego in Piemonte. The<br />
traffic light colors indicate<br />
increasing <strong>hazard</strong> (from<br />
green to red), referring to<br />
return periods of critical<br />
rainfall (Arpa Piemonte,<br />
2006).<br />
Abb. 2: Auszug aus dem<br />
Gefahrenzonenplan rutschgefährdeter,<br />
oberflächennaher<br />
Hänge im Maßstab<br />
von 1:50.000 Dego im<br />
Piemont. Die Ampelfarben<br />
veranschaulichen die<br />
zunehmende Gefahr (von<br />
grün zu rot) mit Bezug auf<br />
Wiederkehrdauern kritischen<br />
Niederschlags (ARPA<br />
Piemonte, 2006).<br />
authorities <strong>and</strong> made locally by the regions. It<br />
is the first try of an inventory based on common<br />
graphical legend <strong>and</strong> glossary.<br />
In Piemonte, over 35,000 l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
were recognized by interpreting aerial photos<br />
<strong>and</strong> field surveys <strong>and</strong> the In<strong>for</strong>mative System of<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides is constantly updated with inclusion of<br />
new l<strong>and</strong>slides or corrections <strong>and</strong> deepening of<br />
existing l<strong>and</strong>slides (fig. 3). Every region decided<br />
by itself if the results of IFFI Project (danger maps)<br />
do or do not have or a legal value. Currently, in<br />
Piemonte l<strong>and</strong>slides inventory coming from IFFI<br />
Project is not a legal basis but it is one of the tools<br />
available that can be consulted.<br />
In any event, IFFI represents a very<br />
important tool <strong>for</strong> the planners who finally have<br />
the first homogeneous, shared, detailed <strong>and</strong> most<br />
complete knowledge of the l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrence<br />
on the whole territory.<br />
As a general remark <strong>for</strong> Italy, it has<br />
to be observed that public legislation defines<br />
general principles <strong>and</strong> lines of conduct, functions,<br />
activities <strong>and</strong> authorities involved, while the<br />
regional administrations apply restrictions on l<strong>and</strong><br />
use through different regional laws.<br />
Final remarks<br />
• Laws or rules that indicate how a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
analysis (danger, <strong>hazard</strong>, risk) has to be<br />
done, do not exist;<br />
• There is often some confusion among<br />
danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk. An inventory<br />
map can be used as <strong>hazard</strong> map (i.e.<br />
susceptibility map), without any prevision<br />
of scenarios;<br />
• There is some lack of trust in quantitative<br />
methods. Qualitative approach seems to be<br />
preferred;<br />
The technicians who make the maps have to<br />
think firstly:<br />
• Who will be the end users?<br />
• What will be the use of maps?<br />
• Is the scale of work suitable <strong>for</strong> this?<br />
• Are the complexity of methods (time,<br />
resources, needed input data…) <strong>and</strong><br />
results appropriate <strong>and</strong> underst<strong>and</strong>able <strong>for</strong><br />
decision makers?<br />
Anschrift des Verfassers / Author’s address:<br />
Stefano Campus<br />
Arpa Piemonte<br />
Dipartimento Tematico Geologia e Dissesto<br />
via Pio VII 9, 10135 TORINO (ITALY)<br />
stefano.campus@regione.piemonte.it<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
ARPA PIEMONTE, (2006),<br />
Note illustrative della Carta della Pericolosità per Instabilità dei Versanti<br />
alla scala 1:50,000 Foglio n. 211 Dego. (S. Campus, F. Forlati & G. Nicolò<br />
editors), Apat, Roma. (in Italian);<br />
ARPA PIEMONTE, (2007),<br />
Evaluation <strong>and</strong> prevention of natural risks. (S. Campus, F. Forlati, S. Barbero<br />
& S. Bovo editors), Balkema Publisher;<br />
ARPA PIEMONTE, (2008),<br />
Interreg IIIa 2000-2006 Alpi Latine Alcotra. Progetto n. 165 PROVIALP-<br />
Protezione della Viabilità Alpina. Final Report (in Italian);<br />
ARPA PIEMONTE, (2010),<br />
Geographic In<strong>for</strong>mation System on-line - http://webgis.arpa.piemonte.it<br />
V.A. (2004),<br />
Identification <strong>and</strong> mitigation of large l<strong>and</strong>slides risks in Europe. The<br />
IMIRILAND project. (C. Bonnard, F. Forlati & C. Scavia editors), Balkema<br />
Publisher;
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Zusammenfassung:<br />
Slowenien liegt in einem komplexen Raum Adria – Dinaren – Pannonisches Becken, und<br />
seine allgemeine geologische Struktur ist bestens bekannt. Aufgrund seiner außerordentlich<br />
heterogenen geologischen Lage ist Slowenien Hangmassenbewegungen (SMM = slope mass<br />
movement) sehr stark ausgesetzt. Die slowenische Gesetzgebung (und darauf beruhend auch<br />
die entsprechenden Maßnahmen) sind vorwiegend auf die Schadenbehebungsphase und die<br />
Begrenzung der Auswirkungen bereits aufgetretener SMM-Vorkommnisse ausgerichtet, es mangelt<br />
jedoch an vorbeugenden Maßnahmen. Der Zweck dieses Artikels ist die Präsentation von<br />
Gefahrenhinweiskarten über Hangmassenbewegungen auf nationaler und regionaler Ebene,<br />
die zum Schutz vor schnellen <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Slowenien erstellt wurden und die eine<br />
fachlich fundierte Grundlage für die entsprechenden Präventivmaßnahmen bilden. Der nächste<br />
logische Schritt wäre, dieses Know-how und diese Ansätze in die Gesetzgebung zu integrieren.<br />
Schlüsselwörter: <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen, Gesetzgebung, Gefahrenhinweiskarte, Slowenien<br />
MARKO KOMAC, MATEJA JEMEC<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in Slovenia<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards und Methoden der Gefährdungsanalyse für<br />
schnelle <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Slowenien<br />
Summary:<br />
Slovenia is situated on the complex Adria – Dinaridic – Pannonian structural junction <strong>and</strong><br />
its general geological structure is well known. As a consequence of an extraordinarily<br />
heterogeneous geological setting, Slovenia is highly exposed to slope mass-movement<br />
processes. While Slovenian legislation (<strong>and</strong> based on that also measures) mainly focuses on<br />
the remediation phase <strong>and</strong> mitigation of consequences of SMM events that have already<br />
occurred, its biggest deficiency lays in the area of prevention measures. The purpose of this<br />
paper is to represent slope mass movement susceptibility maps on a national <strong>and</strong> a local<br />
level that have been developed <strong>for</strong> protection from rapid mass movements in Slovenia <strong>and</strong><br />
which <strong>for</strong>m an expert foundation <strong>for</strong> the prevention measures. The next logical step would be<br />
to incorporate this knowledge <strong>and</strong> approach into legislation.<br />
Keywords: mass movement processes, legislation, susceptibility map, Slovenia<br />
but they can be mitigated or avoided, applying<br />
1. Introduction<br />
adequate legislation measures supported by<br />
corresponding expert argumentation. Although<br />
Slovenian territory occupies the Eastern flank of Slovenian legislation (<strong>and</strong> hence also measures)<br />
the <strong>Alpine</strong> chain. As in other areas of the <strong>Alpine</strong> mainly focuses on the remediation phase <strong>and</strong><br />
region, Slovenia is exposed to different slope mass mitigation of consequences of SMM events that<br />
movements (SMM) above the average of the rest of have already occurred, it’s biggest deficiency lays<br />
Europe. SMM that represent substantial problems in the area of prevention measures. While, in the<br />
can be generally divided into three groups, 1) case of rare SMM events, the current approach of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides, 2) debris-flows, <strong>and</strong> 3) rock falls. The exclusively post-event measures is conditionally<br />
majority of SMM events cannot be prevented, sustainable, in the case of frequent events it<br />
Fig 1: Relation between <strong>hazard</strong>s on one side <strong>and</strong> elements at risk on the other, <strong>and</strong> the risk in between (after Alex<strong>and</strong>er, 2002).<br />
Abb. 1: Beziehung zwischen Gefahren und gefährdeten Elementen, und das dazwischen liegende Risiko (nach Alex<strong>and</strong>er, 2002).
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becomes unsustainable <strong>and</strong> brings a huge burden<br />
to the local, regional <strong>and</strong> state budget. The only<br />
reasonable approach would hence be minimising<br />
interaction between SMM events <strong>and</strong> elements<br />
at risk. Graphically this interaction would be<br />
presented as a cross-section between the natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> on one side <strong>and</strong> vulnerability of elements<br />
at risk on other side (Fig 1).<br />
2. Legislation in the field of slope mass movement<br />
domain<br />
In the area of systematic prevention measures<br />
regarding SMM, Slovenia lags behind other <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
countries or regions. One of the basic approaches<br />
to solve the problem is to establish potentially<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>ous areas due to natural phenomena <strong>and</strong><br />
the inclusion of this in<strong>for</strong>mation in spatial plans.<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation on geology, upon which the slope<br />
mass movement occurrence heavily depends, it is<br />
not yet an integral part of spatial plans. Legislative<br />
acts deal mostly with remediation issues instead<br />
with the prevention measures.<br />
The protection strategy against l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
(within legislation the term l<strong>and</strong>slide also other<br />
types of slope mass movements are included)<br />
varies substantially <strong>and</strong> is tailored according<br />
to different terrain conditions. They are mainly<br />
divided into prevention, emergency protective<br />
measures <strong>and</strong> permanent measures adopted in the<br />
process <strong>for</strong> remediation. In the frame of preventive<br />
actions, the emphasis is on creating a national<br />
database of active l<strong>and</strong>slides (<strong>and</strong> other SMM) <strong>and</strong><br />
intentions of government to include <strong>hazard</strong>s doe<br />
to l<strong>and</strong>slides into spatial planning. In the planning<br />
<strong>and</strong> implementation of emergency protective<br />
measures, the emphasis is on protecting human<br />
lives <strong>and</strong> property.<br />
Law on protection against natural <strong>and</strong> other disasters<br />
(Official Gazette of RS, no. 64/94)<br />
The Act governs the protection against natural<br />
<strong>and</strong> other disasters <strong>and</strong> includes the protection of<br />
people, animals, property, cultural heritage <strong>and</strong><br />
environment against any <strong>hazard</strong> or accidents (risk)<br />
that can threaten their safety. The main goal of<br />
the protection against natural <strong>and</strong> other disasters<br />
system is to reduce the number of disasters, <strong>and</strong><br />
to <strong>for</strong>estall or reduce the number of victims <strong>and</strong><br />
other consequences of disaster. The basic tasks<br />
of the system are: prevention, preparedness,<br />
<strong>and</strong> protection against threats, rescue <strong>and</strong> help,<br />
providing of basic conditions <strong>for</strong> life, <strong>and</strong> recovery.<br />
National program of protection against natural <strong>and</strong> other<br />
disasters (Official Gazette of RS, no. 44/02)<br />
On the basis of the Resolution, the National<br />
Programme of Protection against Natural <strong>and</strong><br />
Other Disasters <strong>for</strong> the period 2002 – 2007.<br />
The National Programme is oriented towards<br />
the prevention <strong>and</strong> its basic aim is to reduce the<br />
number of accidents <strong>and</strong> to prevent or minimise<br />
its consequences.<br />
Law on the Remediation of consequences of natural<br />
disasters (Official Gazette of RS, no. 114/05)<br />
The Act defines a l<strong>and</strong>slide as a natural disaster.<br />
According to the article 11, with some restriction<br />
<strong>and</strong> at some level of damage, state budget funds<br />
may be used to ease the effects of natural disasters.<br />
Damage <strong>assessment</strong> is made in accordance<br />
with the Regulation on the methodology <strong>for</strong><br />
damage <strong>assessment</strong> (Official Gazette of RS,<br />
no. 67/03, 79/04), after which the l<strong>and</strong>slide is<br />
considered a l<strong>and</strong>slide, which threats a property<br />
or infrastructure.<br />
Water Act (Official Gazette RS, no. 67/02, 4/09)<br />
Protection against the harmful effects of water<br />
that is among other the issues dealt with this<br />
act also refers to protection against l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
Threatened area is defined by Government, which<br />
is responsible <strong>for</strong> protecting the population,<br />
property <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> in dangerous exposed areas.<br />
In order to protect against the harmful effects of<br />
water, l<strong>and</strong> in the threatened area is categorized<br />
into classes based on the risk.<br />
Act on measures to eliminate the consequences of certain<br />
large-scale l<strong>and</strong>slides in 2000 <strong>and</strong> 2001 (Official Gazette<br />
RS, no. 21/02, 92/03, 98/05)<br />
Act defines the <strong>for</strong>mat <strong>and</strong> the method of<br />
financing <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>m of allocating state aid <strong>for</strong><br />
the implementation of remedial measures, to<br />
prevent the spread of l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> stabilization<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides on the specific area of influence. It<br />
covers several major l<strong>and</strong>slides in Slovenia.<br />
Spatial Development Strategy of Slovenia (Official Gazette<br />
of RS, no. 76/04)<br />
The Spatial Development Strategy of Slovenia is a<br />
public document guiding development in the field<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slide problematics. It provides a framework<br />
<strong>for</strong> spatial development throughout the country<br />
<strong>and</strong> sets guidelines <strong>for</strong> development in European<br />
space. It provides <strong>for</strong> the creation of spatial<br />
planning, its use <strong>and</strong> conservation. The spatial<br />
strategy takes into account social, economic <strong>and</strong><br />
environmental factors of spatial development.<br />
Slovenia's Development Strategy<br />
Slovenia's Development Strategy sets out the<br />
vision <strong>and</strong> objectives of Slovenia <strong>and</strong> five<br />
development priorities with action plans. The<br />
chapter on protection against natural disasters is<br />
included in the fifth development priority, which<br />
is designed to achieve sustainable development.<br />
Regulation of the spatial order of Slovenia (Official Gazette<br />
of RS, no. 122/04)<br />
Regulation of spatial order in Slovenia provides<br />
the rules <strong>for</strong> managing the field of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
problematic. One of the important articles is<br />
Article 67, in which is mentioned how to plan<br />
according to the limitations which are caused by<br />
natural disasters <strong>and</strong> water protection.<br />
Resolution of the National Environmental Act (Official<br />
Gazette of RS, no. 2/06)<br />
The National Environmental Action Programme<br />
(NEAP) is the basic strategic document in the<br />
field of environmental protection, aimed at<br />
improving the overall environment <strong>and</strong> quality<br />
of life <strong>and</strong> protection of natural resources. NEAP<br />
was prepared under the Environmental Protection<br />
Act <strong>and</strong> complies with the European Community<br />
Environment Programme, which addresses the<br />
key environmental objectives <strong>and</strong> priorities<br />
that require leadership from the community.<br />
The objectives <strong>and</strong> measures are defined in<br />
the four areas, namely: climate change, nature<br />
<strong>and</strong> biodiversity, quality of life, <strong>and</strong> waste <strong>and</strong><br />
industrial pollution.<br />
3. Methodology<br />
Due to specifics of different slope mass movement<br />
processes, a single approach would be hampered<br />
in its results / prognosis. The following chapter<br />
presents an overview of approaches to slope<br />
mass movements (1 – l<strong>and</strong>slides; 2 – debris-flows;<br />
3 – rock falls) <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>. The presented<br />
approaches are similar to a certain level, they also<br />
differ according to the scale of the <strong>assessment</strong>. The
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final results (but not the only ones) of approaches<br />
presented in the following text were presented<br />
in a <strong>for</strong>m of warning maps that are still the main<br />
product used by end users. All the analyses were<br />
conducted in GIS, which enables the end users to<br />
implement results also in a <strong>for</strong>m of databases or a<br />
digital <strong>for</strong>mat.<br />
According to Skaberne (2001) the<br />
terminology of slope mass movements in Slovenia<br />
are as follows: l<strong>and</strong>slides are processes of<br />
translational or rotational movement of rock or<br />
soil as a consequence of gravity at discontinuity<br />
plane(s). Rock falls are processes of falling or<br />
tumbling of a part of rock or soil along a steep<br />
slope. Debris-flows are processes of transportation<br />
of material composed of soil, water <strong>and</strong> air.<br />
The l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility model <strong>for</strong><br />
Slovenia at scale 1:250,000 was developed<br />
at the Geological Survey of Slovenia in 2006<br />
(Komac & Ribičič, 2006). The final result of this<br />
approach was presented in a <strong>for</strong>m of a warning<br />
map (Fig. 2). Based on the extensive l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
database that was compiled <strong>and</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ardised<br />
at the national level, <strong>and</strong> analyses of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
spatial occurrence, a L<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility map<br />
of Slovenia at scale 1 : 250,000 was completed.<br />
Altogether more than 6,600 l<strong>and</strong>slides were<br />
included in the national database, of which<br />
roughly half are on known locations. Of 3,257<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides with known locations, r<strong>and</strong>om but<br />
representative 65% were selected <strong>and</strong> used <strong>for</strong><br />
the univariate statistical analyses (χ2) to analyse<br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrence in relation to the<br />
spatio-temporal precondition factors (lithology,<br />
slope inclination, slope curvature, slope aspect,<br />
distance to geological boundaries, distance to<br />
structural elements, distance to surface waters,<br />
flow length, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> cover type) <strong>and</strong> in relation<br />
to the triggering factors (maximum 24-h rainfall,<br />
average annual rainfall intensity, <strong>and</strong> peak ground<br />
acceleration). The analyses were conducted using<br />
GIS in raster <strong>for</strong>mat with a 25 × 25 m pixel size.<br />
Five groups of lithological units were defined,<br />
ranging from small to high l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility.<br />
Furthermore, critical slopes <strong>for</strong> the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
occurrence, other terrain properties <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> cover<br />
types that are more susceptible to l<strong>and</strong>sliding were<br />
also defined. Among triggering factors, critical<br />
rainfall <strong>and</strong> peak ground acceleration quantities<br />
were defined. These results were later used as<br />
a basis <strong>for</strong> the development of the weighted<br />
linear susceptibility model where several models<br />
with various factor weights variations based on<br />
previous research were developed. The rest of<br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slide population (35 %) was used <strong>for</strong> the<br />
model validation. The results showed that relevant<br />
precondition spatio-temporal factors <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
occurrence are (with their weight in linear model):<br />
lithology (0.3), slope inclination (0.25), l<strong>and</strong> cover<br />
type (0.25), slope curvature (0.1), distance to<br />
structural elements (0.05), <strong>and</strong> slope aspect (0.05).<br />
Beside l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>, a rainfall influence on l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
occurrence was analysed since rainfall plays<br />
an important role in the l<strong>and</strong>slide triggering<br />
processes. Analyses of l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrences in<br />
the area of Slovenia have shown that areas where<br />
intensive rainstorms occur (maximal daily rainfall<br />
<strong>for</strong> a 100-year period), <strong>and</strong> where the geo-logical<br />
settings are favourable an abundance of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
can be expected. This clearly indicates the spatial<br />
<strong>and</strong> temporal dependence of l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrence<br />
upon the intensive rainfall. Regarding the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
occurrence, the intensity of maximal daily <strong>and</strong><br />
average annual rainfall <strong>for</strong> the 30 years period<br />
was analysed. Results have shown that daily<br />
rainfall intensity, which significantly influences the<br />
triggering of l<strong>and</strong>slides, ranges from 100 to 150<br />
mm, most probably above 130 mm. Despite the<br />
vague influence, if any at all, of the average annual<br />
rainfall, the threshold above which significant<br />
number of l<strong>and</strong>slides occurs is 1000 mm.<br />
Fig. 2: L<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility warning map of Slovenia at scale 1:250,000 (Komac & Ribičič, 2006, 2008).<br />
Abb. 2: Gefahrenhinweiskarte für Rutschungen in Slowenien im Maßstab von 1:250.000 (Komac & Ribičič, 2006, 2008).<br />
The debris-flow susceptibility model <strong>for</strong> Slovenia weighted sum approach was selected on the<br />
at scale 1:250,000 was also developed at basis of easily acquired spatio-temporal factors to<br />
Geological Survey of Slovenia in 2009 (Komac et simplify the approach <strong>and</strong> to make the approach<br />
al., 2009). The final result of this approach was easily transferable to other regions. Based on the<br />
presented in a <strong>for</strong>m of a warning map (Fig. 3). calculations of 672 linear models with different<br />
For the area of Slovenia (20,000 km 2 ), a debrisflow<br />
susceptibility model at scale 1:250,000 was factors <strong>and</strong> based on results of their success to<br />
weight combinations <strong>for</strong> used spatio-temporal<br />
produced. To calculate the susceptibility to debrisflow,<br />
occurrences using GIS several in<strong>for</strong>mation factors’ weight combination was selected. To avoid<br />
predict debris-flow susceptible areas, the best<br />
layers were used such as geology (lithology <strong>and</strong> over-fitting of the prediction model, an average of<br />
distance from structural elements), intensive weights from the first hundred models was chosen<br />
rainfall (48-hour rainfall intensity), derivates of as an ideal combination of factor weights. For<br />
digital elevation model (slope, curvature, energy this model an error interval was also calculated.<br />
potential related to elevation), hydraulic network A debris-flow susceptibility model at scale<br />
(distance to surface waters, energy potential of 1:250,000 represent a basis <strong>for</strong> spatial prediction<br />
streams), <strong>and</strong> locations of sixteen known debris of the debris-flow triggering <strong>and</strong> transport areas. It<br />
flows, which were used <strong>for</strong> the debris-flow also gives a general overview of susceptible areas<br />
susceptibility models’ evaluation. A linear model-<br />
in Slovenia <strong>and</strong> gives guidance <strong>for</strong> more detailed
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(4) Mapping of problematic areas at scale<br />
1:5000 or 1:10,000 <strong>for</strong> the purpose of the<br />
highest detail planning<br />
(3) Development of detailed<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong> map at scale 1:25,000 as<br />
a combination of synthesis of<br />
phases (1) <strong>and</strong> (2)<br />
(1) Synthesis of archive geological data into the<br />
overview geo<strong>hazard</strong> map at scale 1:25,000<br />
(2) Development of statistical geo<strong>hazard</strong> at scale<br />
1:25,000<br />
Fig. 3: Debris-flow susceptibility warning map of Slovenia at scale 1:250,000 (Komac et al., 2009).<br />
Abb. 3: Muren-Gefahrenhinweiskarte Sloweniens im Maßstab von 1:250.000 (Komac et al., 2009).<br />
research areas <strong>and</strong> further spatial <strong>and</strong> numerical<br />
analyses. The results showed that approximately<br />
4% of Slovenia’s area is extremely high susceptible<br />
<strong>and</strong> approximately 11% of Slovenia’s area of<br />
processes, taking the Bovec municipality as<br />
the case study area. The geo<strong>hazard</strong> map at the<br />
scale 1:25,000 as the final product is aimed<br />
to be directly applicable in spatial planning<br />
susceptibility to debris-flows is high. As expected, of local communities (municipalities). The<br />
these areas are related to mountainous terrain in<br />
the NW <strong>and</strong> N of Slovenia.<br />
In the frame of a research project, slope<br />
mass movement geo<strong>hazard</strong> estimation – The<br />
Bovec municipality case study an approach to<br />
assess the l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> rock-fall susceptibility at<br />
the municipal scale (1:25,000) (Bavec et al, 2005;<br />
Komac, 2005). The production of a susceptibility<br />
map that should represent (officially not included<br />
among the documentation yet) one of basic layers<br />
in the spatial planning process shown in the Fig. 4.<br />
Methodology was developed <strong>for</strong> estimation<br />
of geo<strong>hazard</strong> induced by mass movement<br />
requirements that were followed to achieve this<br />
aim were: expert correctness, reasonable time of<br />
elaboration, <strong>and</strong> easy to read product. Elaboration<br />
of the final product comprises four consecutive<br />
phases, of which the first three are done in the<br />
office: 1) synthesis of archive data, 2) probabilistic<br />
model of geo<strong>hazard</strong> induced by mass movement<br />
processes, 3) compilation of phases 1 <strong>and</strong> 2 into<br />
the final map at scale 1:25,000. As the last phase,<br />
field reconnaissance of most <strong>hazard</strong>ous areas is<br />
<strong>for</strong>eseen. The susceptibility model development<br />
was based on the upgrading of the expert geo<strong>hazard</strong><br />
map at scale 1:25,000 with a probabilistic model<br />
Fig. 4: Schematic diagram of the process of production of l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> rock-fall susceptibility at the municipal scale (1:25.000)<br />
(Bavec et al., 2005).<br />
Abb. 4: Schematische Darstellung der Erstellung von Gefahrenhinweiskarten über Erdrutsch, Berg- und Felssturz im Maßstab einer<br />
W<strong>and</strong>erkarte (1:25.000) (Bavec et al., 2005).<br />
development that included relevant influence<br />
factors. For analytical purposes, 10,816 models<br />
were developed: 3,142 <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
<strong>and</strong> 7,674 <strong>for</strong> rock-fall susceptibility. In both<br />
cases, geology/lithology <strong>and</strong> slope angle showed<br />
to be the most important influencing factors.<br />
Regarding l<strong>and</strong>slides, additional important factors<br />
were l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> synchronism of strata bedding<br />
<strong>and</strong> slope aspect, <strong>and</strong> in the case of rock-falls an<br />
additional important factor was synchronism of<br />
strata bedding <strong>and</strong> slope aspect.<br />
The methodology is focused towards<br />
the direct use of the final product in the process<br />
of spatial planning at the municipal level <strong>and</strong> is<br />
divided into four phases as shown in Fig. 4:<br />
• (1) Synthesis of archive geological data<br />
in the overview geo<strong>hazard</strong> map at scale<br />
1:25,000 (Budkovič, 2002).<br />
• (2) Development of statistical geo<strong>hazard</strong> at<br />
scale 1:25,000 (Komac, 2005).<br />
• (3) Development of detailed geo<strong>hazard</strong><br />
map at scale 1:25,000 as a combination of<br />
synthesis geological map (1) <strong>and</strong> statistical<br />
geological model (2) <strong>and</strong> delineating the<br />
most problematic areas.<br />
• (4) Mapping of problematic areas at scale<br />
1:5,000 or 1:10,000 <strong>for</strong> the purpose of the<br />
highest detail planning.<br />
All presented approaches are based on a probability<br />
statistical model that is a part of a conceptual<br />
development model of general or detailed slope<br />
mass susceptibility maps represented in Fig 5.
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Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
Univariate analysis (x 2 )<br />
of SMM occurrence by<br />
classes within each of<br />
the influence factor<br />
Field testing<br />
Good results<br />
Development of<br />
phenomenon<br />
susceptibility map<br />
Influence factors classes<br />
ranging based upon<br />
their influence on the<br />
SMM occurrence<br />
Bad results<br />
Selection of optimal<br />
<strong>and</strong> most logical<br />
susceptibility model<br />
Values normalisation<br />
within each influence<br />
factor (0-1)<br />
Testing of different<br />
models developed on<br />
the weighted sum<br />
of influence factors<br />
Fig 5: Conceptual<br />
model of<br />
development<br />
of general or<br />
detailed slope<br />
mass susceptibility<br />
maps.<br />
Abb. 5:<br />
Konzeptionelles<br />
Modell für die<br />
Entwicklung von<br />
allgemeinen<br />
oder detaillierten<br />
Gefahrenhinweiskarten<br />
über<br />
Hangbewegungen.<br />
Marko Komac<br />
Dimiceva ulica 14<br />
1000 Ljubljana<br />
SI-Slovenia<br />
Marko.komac@geo-zs.si<br />
Mateja Jemec<br />
Dimiceva ulica 14<br />
1000 Ljubljana<br />
SI-Slovenia<br />
Mateja.jemec@geo-zs.si<br />
ALEXANDER, D.E., 2002.<br />
Principles of emergency planning <strong>and</strong> management. Ox<strong>for</strong>d University<br />
Press, New York, 340 pp.<br />
BAVEC, M., BUDKOVIČ, T. AND KOMAC, M., 2005. Estimation of<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong> induced by mass movement processes. The Bovec municipality<br />
case study. Geologija, 48/2, 303-310.<br />
BUDKOVIČ, T., 2002. Geo-<strong>hazard</strong> map of the municipality of Bovec.<br />
Ujma, 16, 141-145.<br />
KOMAC, M. 2005. Probabilistic model of slope mass movement<br />
susceptibility - a case study of Bovec municipality, Slovenia. Geologija,<br />
48/2, 311-340.<br />
KOMAC, M., RIBIČIČ, M., 2006. L<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility map of Slovenia<br />
at scale 1:250,000. Geologija, 49/2, 295-309.<br />
KOMAC, M., KUMELJ, Š. AND RIBIČIČ, M., 2009.<br />
Debris-flow susceptibility model of Slovenia at scale 1: 250,000. Geologija,<br />
52/1, 87-104.<br />
SKABERNE, D., 2001.<br />
Prispevek k slovenskemu izrazoslovju za pobočna premikanja. Ujma,<br />
14–15, 454–458.<br />
For all influence factors included in the weighted<br />
sum model calculation, original values were<br />
trans<strong>for</strong>med into the same scale, which ranged<br />
from 0 – 1 to assure the equality of the input data.<br />
In other words, within each factor original values<br />
were normalised with the eq. 1.<br />
(RV - Min)<br />
NVR = ,<br />
Max - Min<br />
eq. 1<br />
or discreet variable value. Final slope mass<br />
movements susceptibility values (the range<br />
is between 0 <strong>and</strong> 1) were classified into 6<br />
susceptibility classes: 0 – Negligible (or None); 1<br />
– Insignificant (or Very Low); 2 – Low; 3 – Medium<br />
(or Moderate); 4 – High; 5 – Very High.<br />
4. Conclusion<br />
Where NVR represents new <strong>and</strong> normalised<br />
value, <strong>and</strong> RV the old (nominal) value. Min <strong>and</strong><br />
Max represent the minimum <strong>and</strong> maximum<br />
original value within the factor, respectfully. For<br />
the purpose of the development of the best <strong>and</strong><br />
at the same time the most logical susceptibility<br />
model, a weighted sum approach (Voogd, 1983)<br />
was used (eq. 2).<br />
n<br />
H = ∑ w j<br />
x f ij<br />
j=l<br />
eq. 2.<br />
Where H represents st<strong>and</strong>ardised relative<br />
phenomenon susceptibility (0 – 1), w j<br />
represents<br />
the factor weight, <strong>and</strong> f ij<br />
represents a continuous<br />
Slope mass movement processes are specific in<br />
their nature, hence separate analyses had to be<br />
per<strong>for</strong>med <strong>and</strong> a different model development<br />
had to be developed. In Slovenia, slope mass<br />
movement susceptibility maps have been<br />
developed on national <strong>and</strong> on local level. In the<br />
case of the latter, which has an actual application,<br />
value maps were developed only <strong>for</strong> some test<br />
areas. Thus several questions remain open <strong>and</strong><br />
these are: when will the geo<strong>hazard</strong> layer be<br />
included as a compulsory part of the spatial<br />
planning document, to what extent quality<br />
geological data will be used <strong>for</strong> the <strong>assessment</strong>,<br />
<strong>and</strong> how the lack of detailed geological data<br />
would be tackled.
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KARL MAYER, ANDREAS VON POSCHINGER<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
Geological Dangers (<strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong>) in Bavaria<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards und Methoden zur Verminderung<br />
von geologischen Gefährdungen durch<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Bayern<br />
Summary:<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation about geological <strong>hazard</strong>s in the Bavarian Alps (e.g. rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides) is<br />
available in the Internet or intranet section Georisk of the Bodenin<strong>for</strong>mationssystem Bayern<br />
(BIS-BY) (www.bis.bayern.de). This in<strong>for</strong>mation system is already used by a number of<br />
departments such as district administrations, water <strong>and</strong> traffic management offices, <strong>for</strong>est<br />
management as well as private users. By now the BIS-BY only shows the sites of origin of<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> not the whole endangered area, which would be relevant <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
use planning. This area, the so called process area, can only be defined by empirical or<br />
numerical simulations <strong>and</strong> models.<br />
A <strong>hazard</strong> map gives an overview of the situation. It is based on model calculations <strong>and</strong><br />
empirical analysis <strong>and</strong> can be verified by the Georisk-cadastre (BIS-BY). Concerning the<br />
spatial extent of the process areas, possible inaccuracies may impair an exact expression<br />
of the danger. The <strong>hazard</strong> map shows large areas where a special type of danger can be<br />
assumed. There<strong>for</strong>e, will be easier to deduce possible conflicts between <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong><br />
use. Hazard maps can be included in the l<strong>and</strong> development plan or can be used to assign<br />
priorities while taking measures.<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mationen über geogene Gefährdungen (z.B. Steinschlag, Felsstürze, Rutschungen) sind<br />
als GEORISK-Daten über das Bodenin<strong>for</strong>mationssystem Bayern (BIS-BY) im Internet oder<br />
Intranet abrufbar (www.bis.bayern.de). Dieses In<strong>for</strong>mationssystem wird bereits von vielen<br />
Fachstellen genutzt. Neben den L<strong>and</strong>kreisen sowie vielen Kommunen sind die Behörden der<br />
Wasserwirtschaft, der Straßen- und Forstverwaltung sowie private Planer die Hauptnutzer. Im<br />
BIS-BY ist bisher allerdings nur das Herkunftsgebiet von Gefährdungen dargestellt, nicht der<br />
planungsrelevante Gefährdungsbereich. Dieser kann nur durch empirische oder numerische<br />
Simulationen und Modellierungen abgegrenzt werden.<br />
Die Gefahrenhinweiskarte gibt eine Übersicht über die Gefährdungssituation. Sie basiert<br />
sowohl auf Modellrechnungen als auch auf empirischen Untersuchungen und wird mit dem<br />
GEORISK-Ereigniskataster (BIS-BY) auf Plausibilität geprüft. Bezüglich der räumlichen Abgrenzung<br />
kann sie Ungenauigkeiten enthalten und die Gefährdung nicht in jedem Fall genau<br />
wiedergeben. Die Gefahrenhinweiskarte hält für große Gebiete flächendeckend fest, wo<br />
mit welchen Gefahren gerechnet werden muss. Daraus lassen sich mit geringem Aufw<strong>and</strong><br />
mögliche Konfliktstellen zwischen Gefahr und Nutzung ableiten. Die Gefahrenhinweiskarten<br />
können einerseits in Flächennutzungspläne mit einfließen und dienen <strong>and</strong>erseits zur Prioritätensetzung<br />
beim Erarbeiten weitergehender Maßnahmen.<br />
1. Introduction<br />
In Germany, geogenic natural <strong>hazard</strong>s, such<br />
as mass movements, karstification, large scale<br />
flooding as well as ground subsidence <strong>and</strong> uplift<br />
affecting building ground, shall be recorded,<br />
assessed <strong>and</strong> spatially represented using a common<br />
minimal st<strong>and</strong>ard in the future. For this purpose,<br />
the “Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s” team of engineering geologists<br />
of the different German federal governmental<br />
departments of geology (SGD) are giving<br />
recommendations on how to create a <strong>hazard</strong> map.<br />
These recommendations of minimum requirements<br />
are directed at the employees of the SGD. An<br />
important component <strong>for</strong> developing <strong>hazard</strong> maps<br />
is the construction <strong>and</strong> evaluation of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventories (e.g. l<strong>and</strong>slide or sinkhole inventories).<br />
The recorded data in the inventories<br />
should have a minimal nationwide st<strong>and</strong>ard <strong>and</strong><br />
are divided into:<br />
• Main data of the topic mass movements <strong>and</strong><br />
subrosion / karst with in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
spatial positioning, about determination of<br />
coordinates, etc.<br />
• Commonly shared technical data of the<br />
subject mass movements <strong>and</strong> subrosion /<br />
karst with in<strong>for</strong>mation about the date<br />
of origin, about the l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> about<br />
damage, etc.<br />
• Specific technical data of the subject mass<br />
movement <strong>and</strong> subrosion / karst<br />
• Data concerning subsidence <strong>and</strong> uplift<br />
Computerized modelling increasingly allows<br />
the identification of <strong>hazard</strong> areas that have been<br />
verified using the l<strong>and</strong>slide inventory or through<br />
evaluation of the results of field work. The<br />
current emphasis in Germany is on hydrological<br />
modelling of flood events that are used <strong>for</strong><br />
water management issues in flood prevention.<br />
Geotechnical modelling is used increasingly <strong>for</strong><br />
rock falls, avalanches <strong>and</strong> shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides.
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If necessary, in addition to the tools described<br />
above, field studies will be needed <strong>for</strong> exact<br />
clarification <strong>and</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> of given situations.<br />
In <strong>Alpine</strong> regions, natural <strong>hazard</strong>s are<br />
a common phenomenon. L<strong>and</strong>slides, rock falls<br />
<strong>and</strong> mudflows occur in the course of mountain<br />
degradation that reflects the natural slope<br />
instability of mountain areas. L<strong>and</strong>slides are mostly<br />
triggered by extreme rainfall that will, according<br />
to climate scientists, become more relevant in<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> regions in particular (Umweltbundesamt<br />
2008). With an increase in heavy rainfall events<br />
an increase in l<strong>and</strong>slide events must be expected.<br />
With approximately 4450 km², the<br />
Bavarian Alps cover about 6.3 % of Bavaria. The<br />
Bavarian Alps are the most important tourist region<br />
of Bavaria <strong>and</strong>, there<strong>for</strong>e, of particular importance.<br />
Furthermore, they have a unique ecological value<br />
that has to be specially protected. Since it is more<br />
<strong>and</strong> more difficult to ensure this protection by<br />
structural activities, protective measures need<br />
to be involved in the planning process <strong>and</strong> also<br />
allow sustainable <strong>and</strong> cost effective strategies.<br />
The most effective <strong>and</strong> sustainable<br />
method to prevent losses arising from <strong>hazard</strong>ous<br />
events is to avoid l<strong>and</strong> use in the endangered<br />
areas. In areas where construction already has<br />
been established or where construction of new<br />
infrastructure or buildings is unavoidable, it<br />
is essential to determine areas endangered by<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
In May 2008, the Bavarian Environmental<br />
Agency launched the project <strong>hazard</strong> map <strong>for</strong> the<br />
Bavarian Alps. The aim of the project is to create<br />
a <strong>hazard</strong> map <strong>for</strong> deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides, shallow<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> rock fall areas <strong>for</strong> the whole of<br />
the Bavarian Alps. It will be finished during<br />
December 2011.<br />
2. Definition of a <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
The federal geological surveys of Germany<br />
agreed on definitions <strong>for</strong> the terminology used<br />
<strong>for</strong> mapping of geological <strong>hazard</strong>s (Personenkreis<br />
“Geogefahren” 2008) based on BUWAL (2005). A<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> map gives a first overview of areas affected<br />
by l<strong>and</strong>slides (potentially endangered area) <strong>and</strong><br />
can be a basis <strong>for</strong> the detection of conflicts of<br />
interests. By defining a most probable design<br />
event <strong>and</strong> integrating it in the l<strong>and</strong>slide modelling<br />
process, a <strong>hazard</strong> map also gives a qualitative<br />
statement about the probability of a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
event. The potential process areas of the expected<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides vary depending on the design event,<br />
the geological, topographical <strong>and</strong> morphological<br />
situation <strong>and</strong> the existence of <strong>for</strong>est. Modelling<br />
parameters <strong>for</strong> rock fall <strong>and</strong> shallow l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
simulations can be deduced <strong>and</strong> trivialised from<br />
comprehensive data.<br />
Generally the scale of a <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
ranges from 1:10,000 to 1:50,000. Within this<br />
project, despite the possibilities of the zoom<br />
function of a GIS, the <strong>hazard</strong> map is produced <strong>for</strong><br />
a scale of 1:25,000.<br />
3. Material <strong>and</strong> methods<br />
3.1 Basis maps<br />
Essential data basis <strong>for</strong> modelling the <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
is a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM)<br />
derived from airborne laser scanning. The datasets<br />
are used in different resolutions (1 m, 5 m, 10 m)<br />
depending on the modelling approach. The<br />
vertical resolution is better +/- 0.3 m, except <strong>for</strong><br />
very few areas where currently no laser scanning<br />
data is available.<br />
3.2 Basis data <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide modelling<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation about geological <strong>hazard</strong>s such as<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides, rock falls <strong>and</strong> earth falls, especially<br />
in the densely populated areas in the Bavarian<br />
Alps, is available in the section Georisk of<br />
the Bodenin<strong>for</strong>mationssystem Bayern (BIS-BY,<br />
www.bis.bayern.de), a GIS-based inventory of<br />
Bavaria including numerous geological data. By<br />
now (October 2010), about 4,500 l<strong>and</strong>slide events<br />
have been detected <strong>and</strong> evaluated within the<br />
project area. Every event is described concerning<br />
its process type <strong>and</strong> dimension, the age <strong>and</strong><br />
potential future trend of the l<strong>and</strong>slide as well as<br />
annotations about the source <strong>and</strong> the degree of<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation. Origin <strong>and</strong> accumulation zones of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides have been digitised <strong>and</strong> stored as well<br />
as significant photos. With all of this the BIS-BY is<br />
the most important source of in<strong>for</strong>mation.<br />
Also integrated in the BIS-BY are maps<br />
of active areas that have been mapped by field<br />
work, aerial photo analysis <strong>and</strong> archive data <strong>for</strong><br />
the main settlement areas. Within these maps<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are classified into four levels of activity<br />
to give an indirect statement about the level of<br />
danger. These maps can be used to estimate the<br />
extension of deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides, <strong>for</strong> example.<br />
Above all, results of two other projects<br />
have been used: Within the project HANG<br />
(historical analysis of alpine <strong>hazard</strong>s), historical<br />
data of l<strong>and</strong>slides have been evaluated <strong>and</strong><br />
digitised. Within the project EGAR (catchment<br />
areas in alpine regions), the risk potential of<br />
alpine torrents has been estimated analysing the<br />
discharge <strong>and</strong> catchment potential.<br />
4. Fall processes<br />
4.1 Minimum requirements in Germany<br />
In many states of Germany, only medium to long<br />
term, large-scale numeric modelling of rock<br />
fall <strong>hazard</strong>s are possible using high resolution<br />
terrain models <strong>and</strong> specialised software. In the<br />
first stage, a “black <strong>and</strong> white map” is created<br />
showing verified / potential rock fall areas derived<br />
from the l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories <strong>and</strong> / or remote<br />
sensing (DEM). This map shows verified as well<br />
as potential rock fall escarpments i.e. slopes with<br />
an inclination > 45° (in <strong>Alpine</strong> areas). The entire<br />
process area is, however, not depicted.<br />
In the second stage, the run-out zone, i.e.<br />
the entire process area, is depicted. That means<br />
areas prone to rock falls due to the inclination, but<br />
which are not confirmed. To define these areas,<br />
estimated empiric angle methods or physical<br />
deterministic models can be used.<br />
To determine rock fall escarpments, the<br />
shadow angle <strong>and</strong> the geometric slope angle is<br />
applied. Both the shadow angle (e.g. 27°) as well<br />
as the geometric slope angle (e.g. 32°) can be<br />
used as the estimated angle (Mayer & Poschinger<br />
2005). An angle of deflection from the vertical<br />
slope can be used as a lateral boundary of the<br />
process area (e.g. 30°).<br />
In Bavaria this method is used <strong>for</strong><br />
huge rock masses. For single blocks, a physical<br />
trajectory model from Zinggeler + GEOTEST is<br />
used (MAYER 2010).<br />
4.2 Modelling rock fall of single blocks (methods use in<br />
Bavaria)<br />
For the detection of potential starting zones of<br />
rock falls, two empirical approaches can be<br />
applied. In a first step, potential starting zones
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stored in the BIS-BY are extracted. These starting<br />
zones are detected by field work. In areas where<br />
no in<strong>for</strong>mation is available, an even more empiric<br />
approach must be applied: it has to be assumed<br />
that every slope steeper than 45° is a potential<br />
detachment zone (Wadge et al. 1993).<br />
Fig. 1: Basic processes during rock fall simulation (Krummenacher<br />
et al. 2005).<br />
Abb. 1: Schematische Darstellung der prinzipiellen Prozesse<br />
der Steinschlagmodellierung (Krummenacher et al. 2005).<br />
According to Meißl (1998) or Hegg &<br />
Kienholz (1995) the process model can be divided<br />
into two parts: the trajectory model calculating<br />
the paths of the blocks as vectors <strong>and</strong> the friction<br />
model calculating the energy along these paths<br />
as well as the run-out length. In this project, the<br />
vector based simulation model of Zinggeler &<br />
GEOTEST (Krummenacher et al. 2005) is used.<br />
Beside the topographical in<strong>for</strong>mation derived from<br />
the DEM, damping <strong>and</strong> friction characteristics of<br />
the slope surface <strong>and</strong> the vegetation have to be<br />
known. Furthermore it is very important to define<br />
a design event <strong>for</strong> rock fall. That means that,<br />
according to the geology, <strong>for</strong>m <strong>and</strong> dimension of<br />
typical blocks have to be determined.<br />
As the block dimension is the only<br />
variable parameter within the simulation, it plays<br />
an essential role in the calculation of the run- out<br />
zone. To assess the design events, the starting zones<br />
already determined within the disposition model<br />
have been intersected with the geological map.<br />
The affected geological units have been checked<br />
by field work. As a result, a mean block size <strong>and</strong><br />
geometry that represents the most probable event<br />
has been determined <strong>for</strong> every geological unit.<br />
This design event has been assigned to one of<br />
four volume classes. For each of these classes the<br />
mean block mass has been calculated. The block<br />
mass of a geological unit is an input parameter <strong>for</strong><br />
the simulation.<br />
The simulation of the block movement<br />
is carried out according to physical principles of<br />
mechanics <strong>and</strong> is separated into falling, bouncing<br />
<strong>and</strong> rolling (Fig. 1). The calculation is a succession<br />
of these processes with intermediate contacts to<br />
underground <strong>and</strong> tree trunks.<br />
The loss of energy during tread mat<br />
is controlled by de<strong>for</strong>mability <strong>and</strong> surface<br />
roughness. These parameters have to be deduced<br />
<strong>and</strong> trivialised from the basis data of the area to be<br />
investigated.<br />
Fig. 2: 3D Trajectories with (red) <strong>and</strong> without (orange) the<br />
protecting function of <strong>for</strong>est.<br />
Abb. 2: 3D Sturztrajektorien mit (rot) und ohne (orange)<br />
Berücksichtigung der Schutzfunktion des Waldbest<strong>and</strong>es.<br />
The simulation has been run <strong>for</strong> two<br />
different scenarios. Within the first scenario, the<br />
<strong>for</strong>est with the protecting function of the trees<br />
has been considered. To simulate a worst-case<br />
scenario, the <strong>for</strong>est has not been included in the<br />
second scenario.<br />
4.3 Modelling rock fall masses (Bavarian approach)<br />
The application of the different global<br />
angles depends on slope morphology. A proper<br />
The trajectory model <strong>for</strong> rock fall (chapter 4.2) decision <strong>for</strong> one global angle model can be<br />
calculates the reach of single blocks. For the runout<br />
zone of larger rock fall volumes, an empirical <strong>and</strong> geometrical slope tangent. If the quotient is<br />
reached by the quotient of shadow angle tangent<br />
process model with a worst case approach is used. below 0.88, the shadow angle has to be used.<br />
Numerous papers (Lied 1977, Onofri & Canadian Otherwise the geometrical slope angle is better<br />
1979, Evans & Hungr 1993, Wieczorek et al. 1999, suited to describe the maximum run-out zone<br />
Meißl 1998) show that a global angle method is an (Mayer & von Poschinger 2005).<br />
appropriate approach to determine the maximum<br />
Global angles can easily be modelled<br />
run-out zone of rock fall. Two different global with implemented functionalities of st<strong>and</strong>ard<br />
angles have been applied. The first <strong>and</strong> more GIS programs. Within the project, the viewshed<br />
important one is the shadow angle (β in Fig. 3). It is function of Spatial Analyst in ArcGIS has been<br />
defined as angle between the horizontal line <strong>and</strong> employed. This function identifies all cells on<br />
the connecting line from the block with maximum a surface (DEM) that can be seen from selected<br />
run out <strong>and</strong> the top of the talus. According to observation points (Fig. 4). There are a number<br />
Evans & Hungr (1993) a shadow angle of 27° of important attributes of every starting point<br />
has been assumed. The other global angle is the necessary <strong>for</strong> the modelling process: the vertical<br />
geometrical slope angle that spans between the view angle, which is the predefined global angle<br />
horizontal line <strong>and</strong> top of detachment zone (α in (Fig. 3), the horizontal view angle that is defined<br />
Fig. 3). A minimum geometrical slope angle of 30° with 30°, as well as the aspect that can be<br />
is presumed (Meißl 1998).<br />
calculated out of the DEM.<br />
Fig. 3: Global angle models: shadow angle (β) <strong>and</strong> geometrical slope angle (α) (Meißl 1998, modified).<br />
Abb. 3: Pauschalgefällemodelle: Schattenwinkel (β) und Geometrisches Gefälle (α), verändert nach Meißl (1998).
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To identify of <strong>hazard</strong> areas, only important rock<br />
fall areas with evidence of activity have been<br />
processed. Due to long-lasting field work, there<br />
is an excellent overview of the situation within<br />
the densely populated areas in the Bavarian Alps.<br />
Beyond those areas it is assumed that all important<br />
rock fall areas are known. To start the modelling<br />
process, first the global angle approach has to be<br />
chosen (shadow angle or geometrical angle). After<br />
digitizing the starting points <strong>and</strong> determination of<br />
necessary attributes, the viewshed modelling with<br />
ArcGIS can be executed.<br />
5. Slide processes<br />
5.1 Minimum requirements in Germany<br />
In the first stage, l<strong>and</strong>slide inventories, e.g. all<br />
registered objects <strong>and</strong> the associated near-surface<br />
processes, should be visually displayed. That<br />
means affected by definite indications of active<br />
<strong>and</strong> inactive l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides that have<br />
already occurred (reactivation or enlargement of<br />
the l<strong>and</strong>slide area is possible). The areas can be<br />
found using mapping (registers) or remote sensing<br />
(DEM) methods.<br />
Fig. 4: The viewshed function identifies all raster locations to<br />
be seen from appointed starting points with defined global<br />
angle.<br />
Abb. 4: Die Viewshed-Funktion ermittelt alle Bereiche, die<br />
von festgelegten Startpunkten mit einem definierten Vertikalund<br />
Horizontalwinkel gesehen werden.<br />
In the second stage, potential<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide areas are determined in addition to<br />
the verified l<strong>and</strong>slide areas. That means areas<br />
prone to l<strong>and</strong>slides due to the geological <strong>and</strong><br />
morphological situation <strong>and</strong> the l<strong>and</strong> use (were<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides have not yet taken place). These areas<br />
can be found by using empirical methods due to<br />
the geological <strong>and</strong> morphological circumstances<br />
<strong>and</strong> the l<strong>and</strong> usage; alternatively / additionally:<br />
Visualisation of semi-automatically derived areas<br />
(cross-over between DEM / geological entity); e.g.<br />
using an additional signature<br />
The distinction between shallow <strong>and</strong><br />
deep-seated slides is optional when visualising<br />
the <strong>hazard</strong> map. Near-surface l<strong>and</strong>slides of<br />
a small volume (shallow slides) are either<br />
separately determined using above procedure or<br />
are displayed simultaneously alongside the deepseated<br />
slides.<br />
5.2 Modelling deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
(methods used in Bavaria)<br />
Deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides are mostly result of the<br />
activation of predefined failure zones, i.e. by<br />
long lasting rainfall. Experience shows that they<br />
can range from about 5 m up to more than 100<br />
m in depth. To identify areas endangered by deep<br />
seated l<strong>and</strong>slides, two different approaches have<br />
been applied. On the one h<strong>and</strong>, areas showing<br />
evidence of previous deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides, with<br />
either ongoing activity or a clear probability of<br />
reactivation, have been evaluated. On the other<br />
h<strong>and</strong>, the terrain has been evaluated concerning<br />
an increased susceptibility <strong>for</strong> deep-seated<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
The locality of the origin of danger (areas<br />
showing a higher probability <strong>for</strong> the development<br />
of a deep seated l<strong>and</strong>slide) has been identified<br />
within the previously cited disposition model.<br />
Previous experiences <strong>and</strong> analysis have<br />
demonstrated that deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides mostly<br />
occur in areas already affected by l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
in the past. For this reason they can be used as<br />
design events. To detect these areas, in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about known l<strong>and</strong>slides, extracted from the<br />
databases listed in chapter 3.2 has to be evaluated.<br />
Permanent activity or more or less recurrent<br />
reactivation likely produces enlargement of the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide area identified in the disposition model,<br />
both the detachment <strong>and</strong> run-out zone upward<br />
<strong>and</strong> downward.<br />
Since a numeric modelling of deep seated<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides is not available <strong>for</strong> a regional scale, the<br />
determination of the potential process area has<br />
to be worked out with empirical methods, taking<br />
into account the local geology <strong>and</strong> morphology.<br />
Under extreme conditions, the process<br />
area can reach the next ridge, terrace or depression<br />
in the greater surroundings of the l<strong>and</strong>slide. In the<br />
case of small-scaled scars in smooth slopes, a margin<br />
of 20 – 30 m has been added to the detachment<br />
areas to assess the potential process area.<br />
To determine the potential run out of an<br />
active or reactivable l<strong>and</strong>slide, the present runout<br />
length has been determined by databases,<br />
hillshades <strong>and</strong> field work in a first step. If there are<br />
indications <strong>for</strong> active movements in the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
toe, it is assumed that the run-out length will<br />
proceed even further in case of a reactivation. The<br />
danger area has to be dimensioned according to<br />
geomorphologic conditions.<br />
6. Flow processes<br />
6.1. General approach<br />
The procedure <strong>and</strong> depiction of flow processes<br />
like deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides (Talzuschub) is similar<br />
to the method used <strong>for</strong> slide processes. Flow<br />
processes rarely occur in low mountain ranges.<br />
In the German <strong>Alpine</strong> area, debris flows are<br />
more related to water-related <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong> this<br />
reason not explained here in detail.<br />
The deep-seated l<strong>and</strong>slides are h<strong>and</strong>led<br />
in the same way as the slide processes. The<br />
process occurring in the run-out zone of shallow<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides is also mostly a flow process. To estimate<br />
this process as disposition model in Bavaria, the<br />
physical computer model SLIDISP is used. To find<br />
the run-out zones <strong>and</strong> to simulate the process, the<br />
model SLIDEPOT (GEOTEST) is applied.<br />
6.2 Modelling shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides (methods used in Bavaria)<br />
Shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides are usually triggered by heavy<br />
rainfall, depending on the predisposition of the<br />
slope. Like the rock fall simulation, the modelling<br />
of shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides is carried out in two steps.<br />
The starting zones are calculated in the disposition<br />
model <strong>and</strong> the run-out zones are calculated in the<br />
process model.<br />
For the disposition model, the<br />
deterministic numerical model SLIDISP (Liener<br />
2000 <strong>and</strong> GEOTEST AG) is used. This assumes an<br />
above average precipitation <strong>for</strong> a certain area. The<br />
Infinite-Slope-Analysis is applied to calculate the<br />
slope stability <strong>for</strong> every raster cell. Fundamental<br />
basic data are the slope angle, derived from the DEM<br />
from which the thickness of soil will be deduced<br />
<strong>and</strong> the geology which allows to determine friction<br />
angle <strong>and</strong> cohesion as geotechnical parameters.<br />
The factor of safety F will be calculated <strong>for</strong> every<br />
raster cell to describe the ratio of retentive <strong>and</strong><br />
impulsive <strong>for</strong>ces (Fig. 5, Selby 1993).<br />
The natural range in the variation of<br />
different input parameters will be considered<br />
using a Monte-Carlo-Simulation. For every<br />
raster cell, the number of instable cases will be<br />
determined. The higher the number of instabilities<br />
the higher is the probability of slope failure.<br />
Since the occurrence of <strong>for</strong>est affects the stability<br />
in an enormous way, the root strength will be
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influences on karstification, can be noted in an<br />
additional category. Optionally, a differentiation<br />
between carbonate, sulphate <strong>and</strong> chloride<br />
karstification can be implemented in the first or<br />
second stage of the <strong>hazard</strong> map. If the in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is available in individual states, the spread of the<br />
inner <strong>and</strong> outer salt slopes as well as intact salt<br />
domes should be entered into the <strong>hazard</strong> map.<br />
8. Discussion<br />
Fig. 5: Principle <strong>for</strong> the calculation of the factor of safety F <strong>for</strong> every raster cell (Selby 1993).<br />
Abb. 5: Grundlagen zur Berechnung des Sicherheitsgrades F einer Rasterzelle (Selby 1993).<br />
integrated in the calculation of the factor of safety angle. The expansion stops if a defined number<br />
as an additional parameter. Considering the root of expansion steps is achieved or if the calculated<br />
strength <strong>and</strong> its effect on soil stability it is possible value falls below a defined threshold.<br />
to simulate two scenarios with different intensities<br />
The run-out zones will be calculated <strong>for</strong><br />
of the “root effect” (high <strong>and</strong> low).<br />
both scenarios. In both cases, a maximum of 8<br />
To calculate the run-out zones. the expansion steps have been calculated while the<br />
raster-based model SLIDEPOT is used (GEOTEST degradation factor has been reduced in the <strong>for</strong>est.<br />
AG). For every raster cell in the starting zone, Because of uncertainties concerning complex<br />
the accumulation will be modelled in the flow edge conditions, the degradation factors have<br />
direction. The model is based on neighbourhood been defined quite pessimistically. With this the<br />
statistics. Above a potential accumulation cell, the run-out zones are large enough <strong>and</strong> rather too<br />
raster cells inside a 20° sector will be analysed large in the case of doubt.<br />
(Fig. 6). Accumulation will be calculated if there<br />
is a starting zone <strong>and</strong> if the topography in the 7. Subrosion / karstification<br />
sector named above is not convex. Every step of<br />
expansion will analyse the neighbourhood up to a Superficial or near-surface subrosion features<br />
defined distance (4 cells; red circle in Fig. 6). With (sinkholes) <strong>and</strong> the knowledge of subrodable<br />
every step, the hypothetical starting volume <strong>and</strong> sediments serve as criteria <strong>for</strong> the analysis of<br />
the rest volume will be reduced by a degradation a process area. In the first stage, the following<br />
factor, which depends <strong>for</strong>emost on the slope <strong>hazard</strong> areas are distinguished:<br />
Fig. 6: Calculation of accumulation: <strong>for</strong> the central cell with<br />
exposition of 210° –230°, the 20° sector identifies 3 cells<br />
that are either starting zones or already show accumulation<br />
(orange cells).<br />
Abb. 6: Berechnung der Auslaufbereiche: Für die Rasterzelle<br />
in der Mitte mit der Zellexposition 210°–230° wurden<br />
drei Rasterzellen im Sektor von 20° ermittelt, die sowohl<br />
Anbruchzone als auch Auslaufbereich sind (orange Rasterzellen).<br />
Verified karstification features from the<br />
Geological map, event register or remote sensing<br />
(e.g. DEM) methods. In the first stage, superficial<br />
or near-surface subrosion features (e.g. sinkholes,<br />
depressions, clefts) are visualised. There is<br />
no differentiation between fossil <strong>and</strong> current<br />
subrosion features. The second stage includes<br />
the visualisation of the dispersion of karstifiable<br />
sediments. Hazard fields can be derived using<br />
a point or area statistical evaluation (e.g. using<br />
the feature density or a raster based density<br />
calculation), as well as using influencing factors,<br />
such as geology, tectonics <strong>and</strong> hydrogeology.<br />
The result of the second stage determines<br />
the differentiation of <strong>hazard</strong> areas. Where<br />
applicable, the <strong>hazard</strong> areas can be coupled<br />
with general geotechnical recommendations as<br />
to construction work in karst l<strong>and</strong>scapes. Special<br />
conditions in individual states, e.g. mining<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> map has been worked out <strong>for</strong> a regional<br />
scale (1:25,000). There<strong>for</strong>e the boundaries of the<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> areas are not sharply bounded lines <strong>and</strong><br />
a detailed view on particular areas or objects is<br />
not allowed. In addition, the modelling of the<br />
different processes can make no claim to be<br />
complete. The maps show potentially endangered<br />
areas that have been determined on the basis of<br />
available in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> that has been computed<br />
with modern numerical models. Anthropogenic<br />
preventive measures have not been introduced<br />
into the models.<br />
Improbable <strong>and</strong> extreme events have not<br />
been considered. Instead, frequently occurring<br />
events have been modelled since they are more<br />
representative <strong>and</strong> felt more as a risk. From a<br />
geological view, rare <strong>and</strong> extreme events have<br />
to be accounted as an unavoidable residual <strong>and</strong><br />
remaining risk.<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>for</strong> rock fall of single<br />
blocks <strong>and</strong> rock fall masses <strong>and</strong> deep-seated<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are based on field work <strong>for</strong> the most<br />
part. On the contrary, the <strong>hazard</strong> areas of shallow<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are solely based on computer models<br />
<strong>and</strong> represent a typical susceptibility map.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, they are presented as hatched areas.<br />
In the field, witnesses of <strong>for</strong>mer traces of shallow<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are hard to find due to weathering.<br />
However, if the predicted consequences of
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Seite 129<br />
climate change with an increase in extreme<br />
rainfalls will come true, an increasing number of<br />
shallow l<strong>and</strong>slides must be taken into account.<br />
Climate change predictions could be<br />
implemented in the model if maps with predicted<br />
precipitation on a local scale were available.<br />
This would allow the identification of hot spots<br />
with heavy rainfall <strong>and</strong>, there<strong>for</strong>e, a higher<br />
susceptibility <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides. The identification of<br />
such hot spots is one target in the <strong>Alpine</strong> Space<br />
Programme project AdaptAlp that also focuses<br />
on evaluation, harmonizing <strong>and</strong> improvement of<br />
different methods <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> mapping.<br />
9. Conclusions<br />
A <strong>hazard</strong> map is a very helpful tool <strong>for</strong> planning<br />
authorities to get an overview about l<strong>and</strong> use<br />
conflicts <strong>and</strong> potentially endangered areas. It is<br />
a general map created under objective scientific<br />
criteria <strong>and</strong> indicating geological <strong>hazard</strong>s that<br />
have been identified <strong>and</strong> localized but not<br />
analysed <strong>and</strong> evaluated in detail. A <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
does not contain specifications about the degree<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> or the intensity or probability of an<br />
event.<br />
The map will be provided to local <strong>and</strong><br />
regional planning authorities <strong>for</strong> water, traffic,<br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>est management. It helps the planner<br />
identify hot spots <strong>and</strong> make decisions concerning<br />
measures of protection. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, it also<br />
shows areas not endangered <strong>and</strong> free <strong>for</strong> planning.<br />
In critical cases, the <strong>hazard</strong> map has<br />
to disclose the requirement <strong>for</strong> further analysis.<br />
In this cases a detailed expertise analysis has<br />
to decide if measures are technically feasible,<br />
economically reasonable <strong>and</strong> under sustainable<br />
aspects really necessary.<br />
To help potential users interpret the<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> map, the results are presented to all<br />
authorities. Furthermore, an intensive cooperation<br />
with the Bavarian Environment Agency is offered.<br />
In addition, a limited version of the <strong>hazard</strong> map is<br />
published on the Internet (www.bis.bayern.de).<br />
But the <strong>Alpine</strong> part of Bavaria is not the<br />
only region affected by geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. The<br />
<strong>Alpine</strong> foothills <strong>and</strong> the Swabian-Franconian<br />
Jurassic-mountains are affected as well. For the<br />
mid-term, the goal is to develop <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>for</strong><br />
the whole of Bavaria.<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Karl Mayer<br />
Bavarian Environment Agency (LfU)<br />
(Office Munich)<br />
Lazarettstraße 67<br />
80636 Munich – GERMANY<br />
Andreas von Poschinger<br />
Bavarian Environment Agency (LfU)<br />
(Office Munich)<br />
Lazarettstraße 67<br />
80636 Munich – GERMANY<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
BUNDESAMT FÜR RAUMENTWICKLUNG, BUNDESAMT FÜR<br />
WASSER UND GEOLOGIE, BUNDESAMT FÜR UMWELT, WALD UND<br />
LANDSCHAFT (BUWAL) [eds.] (2005):<br />
Empfehlungen Raumplanung und Naturgefahren. – 50 p., Bern.<br />
EVANS, S. G. & HUNGR, O. (1993):<br />
The <strong>assessment</strong> of rock fall <strong>hazard</strong>s at the base of talus slopes. – Canadian<br />
Geotechnical Journal, 30 (4): 620-636, Ottawa (Nat. Res. Council of<br />
Canada).<br />
HEGG, C. & KIENHOLZ, H. (1995):<br />
Deterministic paths of gravity-driven slope processes: The „Vector Tree<br />
Model“. In: Carrara, A. & Guzzetti, F. (eds.): Geographical In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards, 79 – 92, Dordrecht.<br />
KIENHOLZ, H., ERISMANN, TH., FIEBIGER, G. & MANI, P. (1993):<br />
Naturgefahren: Prozesse, Kartographische Darstellung und Maßnahmen.<br />
– In: Tagungsbericht zum 48. Deutschen Geographentag in Basel, 293 –<br />
312, Stuttgart.<br />
KRUMMENACHER, B., PFEIFER, R., TOBLER, D., KEUSEN, H. R., LINIGER,<br />
M. & ZINGGELER, A. (2005):<br />
Modellierung von Stein- und Blockschlag; Berechnung der Trajektorien auf<br />
Profilen und im 3-D Raum unter Berücksichtigung von Waldbest<strong>and</strong> und<br />
Hindernissen. – anlässlich Fan-Forum ETH Zürich am 18.02.2005, 9 p.,<br />
Zollikofen.<br />
LIED, K. (1977):<br />
Rockfall problems in Norway. – In: Istituto Sperimentale Modelli e Strutture<br />
(ISMES), 90: 51-53, Bergamo.<br />
LIENER, S., (2000):<br />
Zur Feststofflieferung in Wildbächen. Geographisches Institut Universität<br />
Bern. Geographica Bernensia G64, Bern.<br />
MAYER, K. & VON POSCHINGER, A. VON (2005):<br />
Final Report <strong>and</strong> Guidelines: Mitigation of Hydro-Geological Risk in <strong>Alpine</strong><br />
Catchments, “CatchRisk”. Work Package 2: L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong><br />
(Rockfall modelling). Program Interreg IIIb – <strong>Alpine</strong> Space.<br />
MAYER, K., PATULA, S., KRAPP, M., LEPPIG, B., THOM, P., POSCHINGER,<br />
A. VON (2010):<br />
Danger Map <strong>for</strong> the Bavarian Alps. Z. dt. Ges. Geowiss., 161/2, p. 119-128,<br />
10 figs. Stuttgart, June 2010<br />
MEISSL, G. (1998):<br />
Modellierung der Reichweite von Felsstürzen. – In: Innsbrucker<br />
Geographische Studien, 28: 249 p., Innsbruck (Selbstverl. des Instituts für<br />
Geographie der Universität Innsbruck).<br />
ONOFRI, R. & CANDIAN, C. (1979):<br />
Indagine sui limiti di massima invasione dei blocchi franati durante il sisma<br />
del Friuli del 1976. – Regione Autonoma Friuli-Venezia Giulia e Università<br />
degli Studi di Trieste, 41 p., Trieste (Cluet Publisher).<br />
PERSONENKREIS “GEOGEFAHREN“ (2008):<br />
Geogene Naturgefahren in Deutschl<strong>and</strong> – Empfehlungen der Staatlichen<br />
Geologischen Dienste (SGD) zur Erstellung von Gefahrenhinweiskarten;<br />
not published.<br />
SELBY, M.J. (1993):<br />
Hillslope Materials <strong>and</strong> Processes, Ox<strong>for</strong>d University Press, Ox<strong>for</strong>d.<br />
UMWELTBUNDESAMT [eds.] (2008):<br />
Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschl<strong>and</strong> – Phase 1: Erstellung<br />
regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschl<strong>and</strong>. – http://www.umweltdaten.de/<br />
publikationen/fpdf-l/3513.pdf<br />
WADGE, G., WISLOCKI, A.P. & PEARSON, E.J. (1993):<br />
Spatial analysis in GIS <strong>for</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>. In: Goodchild, M.F.,<br />
Parks B.O. & Steyaert, L.T. (Hrsg.) – Environmental modelling with GIS:<br />
332-338, New York, Ox<strong>for</strong>d.<br />
WIECZOREK, F. G., MORRISSEY, M. M., IOVINE, G. & GODT, J. (1999):<br />
Rockfall Potential in the Yosemite Valley, Cali<strong>for</strong>nia. – In: U.S. Geological<br />
Survey Open-File Report 99-0578, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/ofr-99-<br />
0578/.
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DIDIER RICHARD<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment<br />
<strong>for</strong> Rapid <strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in France<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards und Methoden der Gefährdungsanalyse<br />
für schnelle <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Frankreich<br />
Summary:<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> is required <strong>for</strong> different purposes <strong>and</strong> is carried out through expertise<br />
<strong>assessment</strong>s at different levels, using various approaches. Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping<br />
methods are st<strong>and</strong>ardized at least <strong>for</strong> their use in the frame of l<strong>and</strong>-use planning in what is<br />
called the plan <strong>for</strong> the prevention of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (plan de prévention des risques naturels<br />
prévisibles, PPR). This is one of the main instruments used by the French national authorities<br />
<strong>for</strong> preventing natural <strong>hazard</strong>s while taking them into account in l<strong>and</strong> use development.<br />
Within this procedure, a general methodological guidelines document <strong>and</strong> other<br />
documents specific to the different types of <strong>hazard</strong>s specify the conditions <strong>and</strong> clarify the<br />
method <strong>and</strong> approach proposed to draw up the PPR. One of these documents is dedicated<br />
to mass movement <strong>hazard</strong>s. In this procedure, the <strong>hazard</strong> map is an intermediate step in<br />
elaborating the risk map, i.e. the regulations stemming from the PPR (together with the<br />
associated regulations).<br />
Various types of in<strong>for</strong>mation available <strong>and</strong> databases can be used <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> mapping, based on an inventory of phenomena <strong>and</strong> a back-analysis<br />
of current <strong>and</strong> past events.<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> must characterize a given <strong>hazard</strong> in terms of intensity <strong>and</strong><br />
frequency of occurrence. For mass movements, specific approaches are proposed, given the<br />
specific characteristics of these phenomena.<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Gefahrenbeurteilungen sind für verschiedene Zwecke er<strong>for</strong>derlich und werden in Form von<br />
fachlichen Gutachten auf unterschiedlichen Ebenen anh<strong>and</strong> verschiedener Ansätze vorgenommen.<br />
Gefährdungsbeurteilung und Kartierungsmethoden sind zumindest für die Verwen-<br />
dung im Rahmen der Flächennutzungsplanung st<strong>and</strong>ardisiert: Der Plan für die Verhinderung<br />
von Naturgefahren (plan de prévention des risques naturels prévisibles, PPR) ist eines der<br />
wichtigsten Mittel der französischen nationalen Behörden für die Vermeidung natürlicher<br />
Gefahren und findet in der Flächennutzungsplanung Berücksichtigung.<br />
Im Rahmen dieses Verfahrens beschreiben allgemeine methodologische Richtlinien<br />
und <strong>and</strong>ere, für die verschiedenen Arten von Gefahren spezifische Dokumente die Bedingungen<br />
und geben Aufschluss über die empfohlenen Methoden und Ansätze zum Erstellen<br />
des PPR. Eines dieser Dokumente befasst sich mit den durch <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen verursachten<br />
Gefahren. In diesem Verfahren ist der Gefahrenzonenplan ein Zwischenschritt in<br />
der Erstellung des Risikoplans, d.h., die Vorgaben stammen vom PPR (gemeinsam mit den<br />
zugehörigen Bestimmungen).<br />
Für die Erstellung von Gefährdungsanalysen und die Gefahrenzonenplanung (Gefahrenkartierung)<br />
stehen – beruhend auf einem Best<strong>and</strong> von Phänomenen und einer Analyse<br />
aktueller und vergangener Ereignisse – verschiedene Arten von In<strong>for</strong>mationen und Datenbanken<br />
zur Verfügung.<br />
Gefährdungsanalysen müssen eine gegebene Gefahr in Bezug auf die Intensität und<br />
Häufigkeit des Auftretens beschreiben. Für <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen sind spezifische Ansätze<br />
empfohlen, welche die spezifischen Merkmale dieser Erscheinungen berücksichtigen.<br />
Introduction<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> of rapid mass movements<br />
is required <strong>for</strong> different purposes than <strong>for</strong> other<br />
natural phenomena. Depending on the objectives,<br />
this must be carried out at different scales. Hazard<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> can also take different <strong>for</strong>ms, but<br />
most often its final outcome is a <strong>hazard</strong> map.<br />
Different types of expertise from various experts<br />
<strong>and</strong> approaches contribute to <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, establishing st<strong>and</strong>ardized approaches,<br />
methods <strong>and</strong> tools is dem<strong>and</strong>ing. The field of l<strong>and</strong>use<br />
planning, however, integrates st<strong>and</strong>ardized<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping methods.<br />
Hazards mapping <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>-use planning<br />
Natural <strong>hazard</strong>s must be taken into account in l<strong>and</strong>use<br />
planning documents. These are mainly schemes<br />
of territorial coherence at an inter-urban scale <strong>and</strong><br />
local urban planning at the community scale.<br />
Typically, urban planning procedures<br />
<strong>and</strong> decisions, under the jurisdiction of national or<br />
local authorities, must integrate natural <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
The plan <strong>for</strong> prevention of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (plan de<br />
prévention des risques naturels prévisibles - PPR)<br />
established by the law of February 2, 1995, is now<br />
one of the national authority’s main instruments<br />
<strong>for</strong> preventing natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. The PPR is a<br />
specific procedure designed to take into account<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s in l<strong>and</strong>-use development.<br />
The PPR is elaborated under the authority<br />
of the department’s prefect, which approves it<br />
after <strong>for</strong>mal consultation with municipalities <strong>and</strong><br />
a public inquiry. The PPR involves the local <strong>and</strong><br />
regional authorities concerned from the very first<br />
steps of its preparation (Fig. 1). It can cover one<br />
or several types of <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> one or several<br />
municipalities.
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For areas exposed to greater <strong>hazard</strong>s, the PPR is<br />
a document which in<strong>for</strong>ms the public on zones<br />
that expose populations <strong>and</strong> property to <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
It regulates l<strong>and</strong> use, taking into account natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s identified in this zone <strong>and</strong> goals of<br />
nonaggravation of risks. This regulation extends<br />
from authorising construction under certain<br />
conditions to prohibiting construction in cases<br />
where the <strong>for</strong>eseeable intensity of <strong>hazard</strong> or the<br />
nonaggravation of existing risks warrants such<br />
action. This guides development choices on less<br />
exposed l<strong>and</strong> in order to reduce harm <strong>and</strong> damage<br />
to persons <strong>and</strong> property.<br />
The PPR is designed <strong>for</strong> urban planning<br />
<strong>and</strong> is incumbent on everybody: individuals,<br />
companies, communities <strong>and</strong> government<br />
authorities, especially when delivering building<br />
permits. It must there<strong>for</strong>e be annexed to<br />
the local urban planning plan when such a<br />
document exists.<br />
The basis <strong>for</strong> the regulation of projects<br />
in the perimeter of a PPR is to discontinue<br />
development in areas with the greatest <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong>, there<strong>for</strong>e, to prohibit l<strong>and</strong> development<br />
<strong>and</strong> construction. This principle must be strictly<br />
Fig. 1: PPR<br />
elaboration<br />
scheme (Source: V.<br />
Boudières; 2008)<br />
Abb. 1: Programm<br />
zur Ausarbeitung<br />
eines PPR (Quelle:<br />
V. Boudières; 2008)<br />
applied when the safety of persons is involved.<br />
In other cases, this principle remains particularly<br />
warranted by the cost of preventive measures to<br />
reduce the vulnerability of future constructions<br />
<strong>and</strong> the cost of compensation in cases of<br />
disaster, financed by society. However, since<br />
the prevention objectives are then based on<br />
economic considerations, it is possible to discuss<br />
the limits of prohibitions <strong>and</strong> requirements with<br />
local actors, elected officials <strong>and</strong> economic <strong>and</strong><br />
consumer representatives without departing from<br />
this principle. Adjustments can be accepted when<br />
the situation does not allow alternatives. For<br />
example in urban centres, where requirements<br />
to reduce the vulnerability of projects <strong>and</strong><br />
preventive, protection <strong>and</strong> safety measures<br />
allowing the organization of emergency services<br />
will be set up.<br />
The PPR may operate in zones that are<br />
directly at risk, but also in other zones that are<br />
not in order to avoid aggravating existing risks<br />
or causing new ones. It regulates projects <strong>for</strong><br />
new installations. It may prohibit or impose<br />
requirements on any type of construction,<br />
structure, development or any farming, <strong>for</strong>estry,<br />
craft, commercial or industrial activity, <strong>for</strong> their<br />
completion, use or exploitation <strong>and</strong> requirements<br />
of any kind can be used, up to total prohibition.<br />
The PPR may also define general preventive,<br />
protection <strong>and</strong> safety measures that must be<br />
taken into account by communities as well as<br />
individuals. This option particularly concerns<br />
measures relating to the safety of persons <strong>and</strong> the<br />
organization of rescue operations as well as all<br />
general measures that are not specifically related<br />
to a particular project.<br />
Finally, the PPR may take an interest<br />
in existing structures as well as new projects.<br />
However, <strong>for</strong> property construction that has been<br />
allowed in the past, only limited improvements<br />
whose cost is less than 10% of the market or<br />
estimated value of the property can be required.<br />
As a complement to the PPR – the central<br />
tool of the French national authorities’ natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s prevention action – other procedures<br />
<strong>and</strong> tools are designed to provide preventive<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation that must be provided to inhabitants<br />
possibly exposed to <strong>hazard</strong>s (in<strong>for</strong>mation tools:<br />
DDRM, DCS, DICRIM, IAL, etc.) as well as<br />
measures relating to the safety of persons <strong>and</strong> the<br />
organization of rescue operations that must be<br />
taken into account by communities <strong>and</strong> private<br />
individuals (safety measures plan: PCS). These<br />
procedures are m<strong>and</strong>atory <strong>for</strong> the municipalities<br />
with an existing PPR. Danger studies are also<br />
m<strong>and</strong>atory <strong>for</strong> certain classes of hydraulic works<br />
(new regulations <strong>for</strong> dams <strong>and</strong> dikes). Adequate<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> (<strong>and</strong> mapping) is of course also<br />
necessary <strong>for</strong> all these prevention tools.<br />
Rapid mass movements<br />
Approximately 7,000 French municipalities are<br />
threatened by mass movements, one-third of<br />
which can be highly dangerous <strong>for</strong> the population.<br />
Most of these towns, located in mountain regions,<br />
are exposed to various phenomena stemming<br />
from the instability of slopes <strong>and</strong> cliffs (collapses,<br />
rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides).<br />
<strong>Mass</strong> movements are demonstrations<br />
of the gravitational movement of ground masses<br />
destabilized under the influence of natural<br />
solicitations (snow melting, abnormally heavy<br />
rainfall, an earthquake, etc.) or human activities<br />
(excavation, vibration, de<strong>for</strong>estation, exploitation<br />
of materials or groundwater, etc.).<br />
They vary greatly in <strong>for</strong>m, resulting from<br />
the multiplicity of triggering mechanisms (erosion,<br />
dissolution, de<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> collapse under<br />
static or dynamic load), themselves related to the<br />
complexity of the geotechnical behaviour of the<br />
materials (geologic structure, geometry of the<br />
fracture networks, groundwater characteristics, etc.)<br />
According to the velocity of movement, two<br />
groups can be distinguished:<br />
• Slow movements, <strong>for</strong> which the de<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is progressive <strong>and</strong> can be accompanied by<br />
collapse but in principle without sudden<br />
acceleration:<br />
Ground subsidence consecutive<br />
to changes in natural or artificial<br />
subterranean cavities (quarries or mines);<br />
Compaction by shrinkage of clayey<br />
grounds <strong>and</strong> by consolidation of certain<br />
compressible grounds (muck, peat);<br />
Creep of plastic materials on low slopes;<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides, i.e. a mass movement along<br />
a flat, curved or complex discontinuity<br />
surface of cohesive grounds (marls <strong>and</strong><br />
clays);<br />
Shrinkage or swelling of certain clayey<br />
materials depending on their moisture<br />
content.<br />
• Rapid movements which can be split into<br />
two groups, according to the propagation<br />
mode of materials:
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The first group includes:<br />
Subsidence resulting from the sudden<br />
collapse of the top of natural or artificial<br />
subterranean cavities, without damping<br />
by the surface layers;<br />
Rock falls resulting from the mechanical<br />
alteration of fractured cliffs or rocky<br />
scarps (volumes ranging from 1 dm 3 to<br />
10 4 or 10 5 m 3 );<br />
Some rock slides.<br />
The second group includes:<br />
Debris flows, which result from the<br />
transport of materials or viscous or fluid<br />
mixtures in the bed of mountain streams;<br />
Mud flows, which generally result from<br />
the evolution of l<strong>and</strong>slide fronts. Their<br />
propagation mode is intermediate between<br />
mass movement <strong>and</strong> fluid or viscous<br />
transport.<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> methods<br />
In France’s administrative <strong>and</strong> institutional<br />
organization, certain activities <strong>and</strong> policies remain<br />
the jurisdiction of centralised authorities, such as<br />
the policy <strong>for</strong> natural risk prevention, overseen by<br />
the Ministry of the Environment. This is probably<br />
one of the most significant differences compared<br />
with other <strong>Alpine</strong> countries. One consequence<br />
is the willingness to maintain a minimum<br />
homogeneity <strong>and</strong> coherence at the national level<br />
<strong>and</strong> in the way different types of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
are treated.<br />
Within the framework of this common<br />
procedure, a general methodological guidelines<br />
document has been published, followed by others<br />
specific to the different types of <strong>hazard</strong>s: floods,<br />
<strong>for</strong>est fires, earthquakes, snow avalanches (to be<br />
approved), torrential floods (to be approved)…<br />
One of these guideline documents is dedicated<br />
to geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, including subsidence,<br />
sinking, collapse, rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides, <strong>and</strong><br />
associated mud flows, but it excludes debris flows<br />
in general.<br />
The general guide, published in August<br />
1997, presents the PPR, specifies how it should<br />
be drawn up <strong>and</strong> tries to answer the numerous<br />
questions that may arise <strong>for</strong> their implementation.<br />
The other guidelines, such as the one dedicated<br />
to mass movements, clarify the method <strong>and</strong><br />
approach proposed <strong>for</strong> the various types of risks.<br />
The general methodology establishes that the PPR<br />
is composed of:<br />
• a presentation report explaining the<br />
analysis of the phenomena considered<br />
<strong>and</strong> the study of their impacts on people<br />
<strong>and</strong> existing or future property. This report<br />
explains the choices made <strong>for</strong> prevention,<br />
stating the principles the PPR is based on<br />
<strong>and</strong> commenting the regulations adopted.<br />
• a regulatory map at a scale generally<br />
between 1:10,000 <strong>and</strong> 1:5,000, which<br />
delineates areas controlled by the PPR.<br />
These are risk-prone areas but also areas<br />
where development could aggravate the<br />
risks or produce new sources of risk.<br />
• regulations applied to each of these areas.<br />
The regulations define the conditions<br />
required <strong>for</strong> carrying out projects,<br />
prevention, protection <strong>and</strong> safety measures<br />
that must be taken by individuals or<br />
communities, but also measures applicable<br />
to existing property <strong>and</strong> activities.<br />
The regulatory zoning of the PPR is based on<br />
risk <strong>assessment</strong>, which depends on the analysis<br />
of the natural phenomena that may occur <strong>and</strong><br />
of their possible consequences in terms of l<strong>and</strong><br />
use <strong>and</strong> public safety. This analysis includes four<br />
preliminary stages:<br />
• Determination of the risk basin <strong>and</strong> the<br />
study perimeter;<br />
• Knowledge of the historic <strong>and</strong> active natural<br />
phenomena: inventory <strong>and</strong> description;<br />
• Hazard qualification: characterization of<br />
natural phenomena which can arise within<br />
the study perimeter;<br />
• Evaluation of the socioeconomic <strong>and</strong><br />
human stakes subjected to these <strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
The elaboration of the PPR generally begins<br />
with the historical analysis of the main natural<br />
phenomena that have affected the studied<br />
territory. This analysis, possibly supplemented<br />
by expert advice on potential <strong>hazard</strong>s, results<br />
Fig. 2: The PPR<br />
methodological<br />
guidelines collection<br />
Abb. 2: Die<br />
Sammlung methodologischer<br />
Richtlinien für<br />
einen PPR<br />
Fig. 3: Positioning of the<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> map within the<br />
general procedure of PPR<br />
elaboration<br />
Abb. 3: Positionierung des<br />
Gefahrenzonenplans in der<br />
allgemeinen Ausarbeitungsphase<br />
eines PPR
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Seite 137<br />
in a <strong>hazard</strong> map that evaluates the scope of<br />
predictable phenomena. This map, including an<br />
analysis of the territory outcomes carried out in<br />
consultation with the various local partners, is<br />
the basis <strong>for</strong> reflection during the elaboration<br />
of the PPR. Combining the levels of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
outcomes allows defining risk zones.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e, in this procedure the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
map is an intermediate step necessary to elaborate<br />
the risk map, i.e. the real regulatory outcome of<br />
the PPR (together with the associated regulations).<br />
The study of phenomena by risk basin produces<br />
the <strong>hazard</strong> map, which is combined with the<br />
identification of elements at risk in drawing up the<br />
risk map.<br />
Data <strong>and</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
The first step in elaborating <strong>hazard</strong> maps consists<br />
of collecting all available data <strong>and</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
that can be exploited <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>.<br />
Priority is given to the qualitative general studies<br />
<strong>and</strong> to the back-analysis of past events. The<br />
general studies are conducted based on existing<br />
data, the back-analysis of past or current events<br />
<strong>and</strong> field surveys. Priority must be given to these<br />
elements, as stipulated by article 3 of the decree<br />
of October 5th, 1995, which specifies that the<br />
elaboration of PPR takes into account the current<br />
state of knowledge.<br />
The main in<strong>for</strong>mation sources are:<br />
• Municipal archives (technical documents,<br />
deliberations, miscellaneous documents,<br />
petitions, general reports or accident<br />
reports, etc.);<br />
• Parochial archives;<br />
• Departmental sources (archive <strong>and</strong> quarry<br />
services, miscellaneous diagnoses, etc.);<br />
• Engineering consulting firm documents<br />
(geotechnical <strong>and</strong> geological reports, civil<br />
engineering studies <strong>and</strong> reports, field visit<br />
reports, etc.);<br />
• General <strong>and</strong> research documents (scientific<br />
papers, geological guides, monographs,<br />
PhD theses, etc.);<br />
• Field surveys <strong>and</strong> eye witness accounts;<br />
• Existing databases <strong>and</strong> maps, aerial<br />
photographs.<br />
Historical <strong>and</strong> existing studies as well as field<br />
investigations are collected <strong>for</strong> the study of the<br />
Fig. 5:<br />
Geological<br />
maps <strong>and</strong><br />
databases<br />
(www.<br />
brgm.fr)<br />
Abb. 5:<br />
Geologische<br />
Karten und<br />
Datenbanken<br />
(www.<br />
brgm.fr)<br />
Study of phenomena<br />
by risk basin<br />
Identification of<br />
elements at risk<br />
Regulatory<br />
documents<br />
Historical <strong>and</strong> existing<br />
studies, field investigation<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mative map of<br />
natural phenomena<br />
Hazard map<br />
Necessary in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>and</strong> consultation<br />
Available maps <strong>and</strong> data bases<br />
Elements at risk<br />
appreciation<br />
Risk Prevention<br />
Plan (PPR)<br />
Risk management<br />
Annexation as<br />
servitude in the PLU<br />
Fig. 4:<br />
The first<br />
step of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping<br />
Abb. 4:<br />
Der erste<br />
Schritt<br />
der<br />
Gefahrenzonenplanung<br />
Fig. 6:<br />
Example of<br />
a ZERMOS<br />
map<br />
Abb. 6:<br />
Beispiel<br />
eines<br />
ZERMOS-<br />
Plans
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Seite 138<br />
Seite 139<br />
Intensity level<br />
Low<br />
Coutermeasures importance level<br />
Can be financed by an individual owner<br />
phenomena step. Maps <strong>and</strong> databases are available<br />
<strong>for</strong> this work: geological maps at a 1:50,000 scale,<br />
covering France (Fig. 5 - www.brgm.fr); a few<br />
Zermos maps (Fig. 6) of zones exposed to soil<br />
movement <strong>hazard</strong>s, a combination of susceptibility<br />
levels <strong>and</strong> geomorphologic features, which are<br />
quite old <strong>and</strong> not exhaustive; a French database<br />
of mass movements (Fig. 7 - www.bdmvt.net);<br />
<strong>and</strong> an events database of the RTM services that<br />
will soon be on line.<br />
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong><br />
Hazard evaluation includes three components:<br />
the intensity of mass movements, the time of<br />
occurrence <strong>and</strong> the spatial extension. Once<br />
translated into regulatory zoning, the in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
contained in this map will be used to manage <strong>and</strong><br />
plan l<strong>and</strong> development <strong>and</strong> construction works.<br />
Hazards are thus qualified in terms of intensity.<br />
Considering the variety of mass movements,<br />
Fig. 7: The<br />
BDMVT,<br />
French<br />
database<br />
of mass<br />
movements<br />
(www.<br />
bdmvt.net)<br />
Abb. 7:<br />
BDMVT<br />
– französische<br />
Datenbank<br />
für<br />
<strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen<br />
(www.<br />
bdmvt.net)<br />
it is difficult to directly translate their physical<br />
characteristics in terms of intensity, except by<br />
defining as many <strong>hazard</strong>s as movement types,<br />
which would make the <strong>hazard</strong> zoning document<br />
difficult to read. It is there<strong>for</strong>e necessary to refer to<br />
more global criteria so they can be compared <strong>and</strong><br />
their use <strong>for</strong> regulatory zoning facilitated.<br />
Different methods are possible to assess a<br />
representative intensity level <strong>for</strong> all phenomena:<br />
• As <strong>for</strong> earthquakes, intensity can be<br />
translated in terms of potential <strong>for</strong> damage,<br />
using parameters such as the volume of<br />
soil or rock involved, the depth of the<br />
failure surface, the final displacement,<br />
the kinetic energy, etc. However, damage<br />
potential depends not only on the physical<br />
phenomenon, but also on the vulnerability<br />
of buildings, which introduces a bias.<br />
• Intensity can be assessed according to<br />
the importance <strong>and</strong> the cost of protection<br />
measures that would be necessary to<br />
Medium<br />
High<br />
Major<br />
Can be financed by a limited group of owners<br />
Fig. 8: Example of relationships proposed between the importance of countermeasures <strong>and</strong> intensity level<br />
Abb. 8: Beispiel der empfohlenen Beziehungen zwischen der Bedeutung der Gegenmaßnahmen und der Intensitätsstufe<br />
implement. Different classes of intensity can<br />
be identified if these measures remain within<br />
the domain of an individual owner or a group<br />
of owners or if they require community<br />
intervention <strong>and</strong> investment (Fig. 8).<br />
Geological <strong>hazard</strong> qualification is based on<br />
qualitative criteria, such as the observed or expected<br />
damage or impacts or the cost range of possible<br />
countermeasures <strong>for</strong> the intensity evaluation.<br />
The frequency of events is estimated on<br />
the basis of the historical events identified on<br />
the site. The reference <strong>hazard</strong> is the most severe<br />
potential events considered by the expert as likely<br />
to occur in a 100-year period (or more frequently<br />
if human lives are concerned), or the most severe<br />
historical event identified on an equivalent site.<br />
The probabilistic approach based on<br />
a frequency analysis is possible only <strong>for</strong> some<br />
phenomena such as rock falls. This assumes that<br />
sufficient data are available, which is actually<br />
rare. As most mass movements are not repetitive<br />
processes, contrary to earthquakes or floods, it is<br />
necessary to consider a probability of occurrence<br />
of an event qualitatively over a given period (e.g.<br />
50 or 100 years), without reference to numerical<br />
values. For instance, three levels or probabilities<br />
may be used: low, medium <strong>and</strong> high.<br />
Concerns a spatial area larger than the individual<br />
ownership scale <strong>and</strong>/or very higth cost <strong>and</strong>/or technically<br />
difficult<br />
No possible technical countermeasure<br />
Only a few cases in France (Séchilienne, la Clapière...)<br />
In most cases, the occurrence probability is not<br />
a true probability, but is simply a scale of relative<br />
susceptibility, relying on elements such as slope<br />
angle, lithology, fracturing of the rock mass,<br />
presence of water, etc.<br />
The <strong>hazard</strong> is graded by combining the<br />
time occurrence <strong>and</strong> the intensity, typically in a<br />
2D table (Fig. 10). There is no general specification<br />
<strong>for</strong> this stage of the <strong>hazard</strong> evaluation, but<br />
presenting the key of the <strong>hazard</strong> evaluation is<br />
strongly recommended.<br />
In the presence of substantial human<br />
<strong>and</strong> socioeconomic danger, methods <strong>and</strong><br />
tools specifying the spatial extension of the<br />
phenomena, thus reducing uncertainty, can be<br />
used: run-out modelling <strong>for</strong> rock falls, geophysics<br />
surveys delineating underground mines, etc. In<br />
case of rock falls <strong>and</strong> related phenomena, <strong>hazard</strong><br />
evaluation includes both the stability analysis<br />
of rock masses <strong>and</strong> run-out distance evaluation.<br />
Numerical tools are increasingly used to estimate<br />
the maximal run-out distance, but the reliability of<br />
the results is highly dependent on the experience<br />
of the engineering geologist.<br />
Generally, the topographic basis used is<br />
the IGN (National Geographic Institute) 1:25,000<br />
map, enlarged to 1:10,000. In presence of
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
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Seite 141<br />
Conclusion<br />
Acknowledgements<br />
Fig. 9: Decision process <strong>for</strong> assessing the reference <strong>hazard</strong><br />
Abb. 9: Entscheidungsprozess zur Bewertung der Bezugsgefährdung<br />
substantial damage potential or if the precision<br />
of the study <strong>and</strong> the amount of available data<br />
allow it, it is possible to map the <strong>hazard</strong>s on a<br />
or Séchilienne (Isère), involving more than 10<br />
million cubic metres of material, ad hoc methods<br />
of <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> have been set up, including<br />
1:5,000-scale map.<br />
the monitoring of movement <strong>and</strong> various<br />
As far as very large mass movements are computer simulations.<br />
concerned, such as La Clapière (Alpes-Maritimes)<br />
Probability of occurrence<br />
Methods assessing <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>for</strong> rapid mass<br />
movements are still mostly empirical <strong>and</strong> rely<br />
on the experience of the engineering geologist.<br />
The PPR guidelines give a general framework<br />
<strong>and</strong> general principles <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
mapping. Precise rules are not yet available at the<br />
national level. The geological analysis remains the<br />
basis of <strong>hazard</strong> evaluation, but numerical tools as<br />
GIS <strong>and</strong> computer simulation are also used. The<br />
main requirement is that the method used should<br />
be explained.<br />
Anschrift des Verfassers / Author’s address:<br />
Didier Richard<br />
Cemagref – Unité de Recherche<br />
“érosion torrentielle, neige et avalanches”<br />
BP 76 – F 38402 Saint-Martin-d’Hères Cedex<br />
Tel. : +33 4 76 76 27 73<br />
mail : didier.richard@cemagref.fr<br />
Jean-Louis Durville, Conseil général de<br />
l'environnement et du développement durable.<br />
Alison Evans, Service de Restauration des Terrains<br />
en Montagne de Haute-Savoie.<br />
The person to contact <strong>for</strong> more in<strong>for</strong>mation on this<br />
policy within the French Ministry of Sustainabledevelopment,<br />
is François Hédou (Francois.<br />
HEDOU@developpement-durable.gouv.fr).<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
RISK PREVENTION FRENCH WEBPORTAL: www.prim.net<br />
RISK MAPPING:<br />
http://cartorisque.prim.net/<br />
WEBSITE OF THE FRENCH MINISTRY IN CHARGE OF RISK PREVENTION<br />
POLICY: http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/<br />
FRENCH MASS MOVEMENTS DATABASE: http://www.bdmvt.net/<br />
BRGM (bureau de recherches géologiques et minières) Website: http://<br />
www.brgm.fr/<br />
LCPC (1999)<br />
L'utilisation de la photo-interprétation dans l'établissement des plans<br />
de prévention des risques liés aux mouvements de terrain. Collection<br />
Environnement, 128 p.<br />
LCPC (2000)<br />
Caractérisation et cartographie de l'aléa dû aux mouvements de terrain.<br />
Collection Environnement, 91 p.<br />
MINISTÈRE DE L'AMÉNAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE (1999).<br />
Plans de prévention des risques naturels (PPR). Risques de mouvements de<br />
terrain. La Documentation française, 71 p.<br />
Intensity level<br />
Low<br />
Determining factors<br />
identified on the site are<br />
diffuse, poorly determined.<br />
Medium<br />
Many determining factors are<br />
identified on the site. Some<br />
factors unlisted can appear<br />
with time.<br />
High<br />
Some nonidentified determining<br />
factors on the<br />
site. The intensity of the<br />
factors is high.<br />
Low<br />
Rock Falls < 1 dm 3<br />
Very low to low<br />
<strong>hazard</strong><br />
Very low to low <strong>hazard</strong> /<br />
Medium<br />
Rock Falls < 100 m 3<br />
Very low to low<br />
<strong>hazard</strong><br />
Medium <strong>hazard</strong><br />
High <strong>hazard</strong><br />
High<br />
Collapses > 100 m 3 / High <strong>hazard</strong> High <strong>hazard</strong><br />
Abb. 10: Beispiel für die Erstellung einer Übersichtstabelle über Steinschlaggefahr (von CETE du sud-ouest)<br />
Fig 10: Example of <strong>hazard</strong> table determination <strong>for</strong> rock fall <strong>hazard</strong> (from CETE du sud-ouest)
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
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Seite 143<br />
PERE OLLER, MARTA GONZÁLEZ, JORDI PINYOL, JORDI MARTURIÀ, PERE MARTÍNEZ<br />
Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s Mapping in Catalonia<br />
Kartierung von geologischen Gefahren in Katalonien<br />
Summary:<br />
This paper presents the different lines of work being undertaken by the Geological Institute<br />
of Catalonia (IGC) on geological <strong>hazard</strong> mapping. It describes the different map series, scales<br />
of representation, methodologies <strong>and</strong> its expected use.<br />
Keywords: <strong>hazard</strong> mapping, geo<strong>hazard</strong>s, Catalonia.<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Diese Abh<strong>and</strong>lung bietet einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Aktivitäten des Geologischen<br />
Instituts Katalonien (IGC) für die Kartierung geologischer Gefahren. Sie beschreibt die<br />
unterschiedlichen Kartenserien, den Umfang der Darstellungen, die angew<strong>and</strong>te Methodik<br />
und den erwarteten Gebrauch der Karten.<br />
Schlüsselwörter: Gefahrenkartierung, Geogefahren, Katalonien.<br />
Introduction<br />
With Law 19/2005, the Parliament of Catalonia<br />
approved the creation of the Geological Institute<br />
of Catalonia (IGC) assigned to the Ministry of<br />
L<strong>and</strong> Planning <strong>and</strong> Public Infrastructures (DPTOP)<br />
of the Catalonian Government.<br />
One of the functions of the IGC is to<br />
“study <strong>and</strong> assess geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, including<br />
avalanches, to propose measures to develop<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecast, prevention <strong>and</strong> mitigation <strong>and</strong><br />
to give support to other agencies competent in<br />
l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> urban planning, <strong>and</strong> in emergency<br />
management”. There<strong>for</strong>e, the IGC is in charge of<br />
making official <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>for</strong> such a finality.<br />
These maps comply with the Catalan Urban Law<br />
(1/2005) which indicates that building is not<br />
allowed in those places where a risk exists.<br />
The high density of urban development<br />
<strong>and</strong> infrastructures in Catalonia requires<br />
geo-thematic in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> planning. As<br />
a component of the Geoworks of the IGC,<br />
the strategic programme aimed at acquiring,<br />
elaborating, integrating <strong>and</strong> disseminating the<br />
basic geological, pedological <strong>and</strong> geothematic<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation concerning the whole of the territory<br />
in scales suitable <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> urban planning.<br />
Geo-<strong>hazard</strong> mapping is an essential part of this<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation. Despite some tests carried out with<br />
wide l<strong>and</strong> recovery (Mountain Regions Hazard<br />
Map 1:50,000 [DGPAT, 1985], Risk Prevention<br />
Map of Catalonia 1:50,000 [ICC, 2003]), at<br />
present the work is done mainly on two scales:<br />
l<strong>and</strong> planning scale (1:25,000), <strong>and</strong> urban<br />
planning scale (1:5,000 or more detailed). These<br />
scales imply different approaches <strong>and</strong> methods to<br />
obtain <strong>hazard</strong> parameters used <strong>for</strong> such a purpose.<br />
The maps are generated in the framework of a<br />
mapping plan or as the final product of a specific<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> report. These different types of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping products are explained below.<br />
Geological Hazard Prevention Map of Catalonia<br />
1:25,000 (MPRGC25M)<br />
The most important mapping plan is the Geological<br />
Hazard Prevention Map of Catalonia 1:25,000<br />
(MPRGC25M). This project started in 2007. The<br />
MPRGC includes the representation of evidence,<br />
phenomena, susceptibility <strong>and</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
of geological processes. These are the processes<br />
generated by external geodynamics (such as slope,<br />
torrent, snow, coastal <strong>and</strong> flood dynamics) <strong>and</strong><br />
internal (seismic) geodynamics. The in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is displayed by different maps on each published<br />
sheet. The main map is presented on a scale of<br />
1:25,000, <strong>and</strong> includes l<strong>and</strong>slide, avalanche <strong>and</strong><br />
flood <strong>hazard</strong>. The <strong>hazard</strong> level is qualitatively<br />
classified as high (red), medium (orange) <strong>and</strong> low<br />
(yellow). The methods used to analyze <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
basically consist of geomorphological, spatial <strong>and</strong><br />
statistical analysis.<br />
Several complementary maps on a<br />
1:100,000 scale show <strong>hazard</strong>s caused individually<br />
by different phenomena in order to facilitate the<br />
Fig. 1: First published sheet, Vilamitjana (65-23), in 2010.<br />
Abb. 1: Das erste veröffentlichte Blatt,<br />
Vilamitjana (65-23), 2010.
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Seite 144<br />
Seite 145<br />
reading of the sheet <strong>and</strong> underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the<br />
mapped phenomena. Two additional maps <strong>for</strong><br />
flooding <strong>and</strong> seismic <strong>hazard</strong>s, represented on<br />
a 1:50,000 scale, are added to the sheet. The<br />
map is to provides government <strong>and</strong> individuals<br />
with an overview of the territory with respect to<br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s, identifying areas where it is<br />
advisable to carry out detailed studies in case of<br />
action planning. At the same time, a database<br />
is being implemented. It will incorporate all the<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation obtained from these maps. In the<br />
future it will become the Geological Hazard<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation System of Catalonia (SIRGC).<br />
The procedure followed in the main map consists<br />
of three steps:<br />
1.Catalogue of phenomena <strong>and</strong> evidences<br />
2.Susceptibility determination<br />
3.Hazard determination<br />
The catalogue of phenomena <strong>and</strong> evidence is<br />
the base of the further susceptibility <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
analysis. It consists of a geomorphologic approach<br />
<strong>and</strong> it comprises the following phases:<br />
1. Bibliographic <strong>and</strong> cartographic search: the<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation available in archives <strong>and</strong> databases<br />
is collected.<br />
2. Photointerpretation: carried out on vertical<br />
aerial photos of flights from different years<br />
(1957, 1977, 1985, 2003, etc.). The observation<br />
of the topography <strong>and</strong> the vegetation allows<br />
the identification of areas with signs of<br />
instability coming from the identification <strong>and</strong><br />
characterization of events that occurred recently<br />
or in the past, <strong>and</strong> from activity indicators.<br />
3. Field survey: checking <strong>and</strong> contrasting on the<br />
field, the elements identified in the previous<br />
phases. Field analysis allows a better approach<br />
<strong>and</strong> underst<strong>and</strong>ing, <strong>and</strong> there<strong>for</strong>e identifying<br />
signs <strong>and</strong> phenomena are not observable<br />
through the photointerpretation.<br />
4. Population inquiries: the goal of this stage is to<br />
complement the in<strong>for</strong>mation obtained in the<br />
earlier stages, especially in aspects such as the<br />
intensity <strong>and</strong> frequency. It is done through a<br />
survey to witnesses who live <strong>and</strong>/or work in the<br />
study areas.<br />
In a second step, areas susceptible to be<br />
affected by the phenomena are identified from the<br />
starting zone to the maximum extent determinable<br />
at the scale of work. Their limits are drawn taking<br />
into account the catalogue of phenomena,<br />
geomorphological indicators of activity, <strong>and</strong> from<br />
the identification of favourable lithologies <strong>and</strong><br />
morphologies of the terrain. This phase includes<br />
the completion of GIS <strong>and</strong> statistical analysis<br />
to support the determination of the starting <strong>and</strong><br />
run-out zone. It can be extensively applied with<br />
satisfactory results with regard to the scale <strong>and</strong><br />
purpose of the work.<br />
Finally, <strong>hazard</strong> is estimated on the basis<br />
of the analysis of the magnitude <strong>and</strong> frequency (or<br />
activity) of the observed or potential phenomena.<br />
Susceptibility areas are classified according to<br />
the <strong>hazard</strong> matrix represented in Fig. 2. Hazard<br />
zones are represented as follows: areas where<br />
no <strong>hazard</strong> was detected (white), zones with low<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> (yellow), medium <strong>hazard</strong> zones (orange),<br />
<strong>and</strong> areas with high <strong>hazard</strong> (red).<br />
In order to obtain an equivalent <strong>hazard</strong><br />
<strong>for</strong> each phenomena, an ef<strong>for</strong>t was made to<br />
Fig. 2: Hazard matrix (based on Altimir et al, 2001).<br />
Abb. 2: Gefahrenmatrix (auf der Grundlage von Altimir et al, 2001).<br />
equate the parameters that define them. The<br />
same frequency/activity values were used <strong>for</strong> all<br />
phenomena, but magnitude values were adapted<br />
to each of them.<br />
Each <strong>hazard</strong> level contains some<br />
considerations <strong>for</strong> prevention (Fig. 3). These<br />
considerations in<strong>for</strong>m about the need <strong>for</strong> further<br />
detailed studies <strong>and</strong> advise about the use of<br />
corrective measures.<br />
Fig. 3: Prevention recommendations.<br />
Abb. 3: Empfohlene Präventivmaßnahmen.<br />
Hazard from each phenomena is<br />
analyzed individually. The main challenge of the<br />
map is to easily present the overlapping <strong>hazard</strong> of<br />
different phenomena. A methodology identifying<br />
that this overlap exists has been established<br />
with this objective in mind. It indicates what the<br />
maximum overlapped <strong>hazard</strong> is (Fig. 4), but in any<br />
case, without obtaining new <strong>hazard</strong> values.<br />
Fig. 4: Multi-<strong>hazard</strong> representation.<br />
Abb. 4: Darstellung von Mehrfachrisiken.<br />
An epigraph is assigned, to identify the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
level <strong>and</strong> the phenomena that causes it, especially<br />
in overlapping areas (Fig. 5). This epigraph<br />
consists of two characters, the first in capital<br />
letters, indicates the value of <strong>hazard</strong> (A <strong>for</strong> high<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>, M <strong>for</strong> medium <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> B <strong>for</strong> low<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>), <strong>and</strong> the second, in lower-case, indicates<br />
the type of phenomena (e <strong>for</strong> large l<strong>and</strong>slides, s<br />
<strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides, d <strong>for</strong> rockfalls, x <strong>for</strong> flows, a <strong>for</strong><br />
avalanches <strong>and</strong> f <strong>for</strong> subsidence <strong>and</strong> collapses).<br />
The higher the overlapping is, the longer the<br />
epigraph will be.<br />
Fig. 5: Example of multi-<strong>hazard</strong> representation.<br />
Abb. 5: Beispiel von Mehrfachrisiken.<br />
Fig. 6: Main map 1:25000, which includes l<strong>and</strong>slides, avalanches,<br />
sinking <strong>and</strong> flooding according to geomorphologic<br />
criteria.<br />
Abb. 6: Hauptkarte 1:25000; sie veranschaulicht die Gefahren<br />
hinsichtlich Bergstürze, Lawinen, Absenkung und Hochwasser<br />
nach geomorphologischen Kriterien.
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Complementary maps<br />
Complementary maps represent the <strong>hazard</strong><br />
established <strong>for</strong> each individual phenomena at<br />
1:100,000 scale. The purpose of these maps is<br />
to facilitate the interpretation of the main map.<br />
Depending on the type of phenomena identified<br />
in the main map, the number of complementary<br />
maps can vary from 1 to 6.<br />
The final map (Fig. 8) also represents the values of<br />
the basic seismic acceleration of the compulsory<br />
"Norma de Construcción Sismorresistente<br />
Española" (NCSE-02) <strong>for</strong> a placement in rock,<br />
<strong>and</strong> the intensity of the seismic emergency plan<br />
(SISMICAT).<br />
Fig. 10: Flooding <strong>hazard</strong> map 1:100,000 based on hydraulic<br />
modeling.<br />
Abb. 10: Hochwasser-Gefahrenzonenkarte 1:100.000 auf der<br />
Grundlage hydraulischer Modellierung.<br />
Fig. 12: First published Avalanche Paths Map, “Val d’Aran<br />
Nord”, in 1996.<br />
Abb. 12: Erste veröffentlichte Lawinenzugkarte „Val d’Aran<br />
Nord“, 1996.<br />
The termination of the MZA allows a first global<br />
Fig. 7: Complementary map of surface l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>.<br />
Abb. 7: Komplementärkarte über Erdrutschrisiken.<br />
Seismic <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
This map was obtained from the map of seismic<br />
areas <strong>for</strong> a return period of 500 years, <strong>for</strong> a<br />
middle ground, <strong>and</strong> considering the effects of soil<br />
amplification.<br />
To take into account the amplification<br />
of the seismic motion due to soft ground, a<br />
geotechnical classification of lithologies from<br />
the Geological Map of Catalonia 1:25,000 into<br />
4 types was carried out: R (hard rock), A (compact<br />
rocks), B (semi-compacted material) <strong>and</strong> C (non<br />
cohesive material). This classification is based on<br />
the speed of the S-wave through them (Fleta et al.,<br />
1998). The proposed amplifications were assigned<br />
to each group of lithologies. For types R <strong>and</strong> A no<br />
additions of any degree of intensity were made,<br />
but <strong>for</strong> types B <strong>and</strong> C, there was an addition of<br />
0.5 degrees of intensity.<br />
Fig. 8: Seismic <strong>hazard</strong> map 1:100,000.<br />
Abb. 8: Seismische Gefahrenzonenkarte, 1:100.000.<br />
Fig. 9: Seismic <strong>hazard</strong> map symbology.<br />
Abb. 9: Symbologie seismische Gefahrenzonenkarte.<br />
Flooding <strong>hazard</strong> map<br />
The flooding <strong>hazard</strong> map at 1:50,000 scale shows<br />
the limits of the hydraulic modeling <strong>for</strong> periods of<br />
50, 100 <strong>and</strong> 500 years provided by the Catalan<br />
Water Agency (ACA). A flooding map according to<br />
geomorphologic criteria was done in those streams<br />
were hydraulic modeling was not per<strong>for</strong>med.<br />
Fig. 11: Flooding <strong>hazard</strong> map symbology.<br />
Abb. 11: Symbologie Hochwasser-Gefahrenzonenkarte.<br />
Avalanche Paths Map (MZA)<br />
A second mapping plan, already finished, is<br />
the Avalanche Paths Map (MZA). It was begun<br />
in 1996 <strong>and</strong> finished in 2006. An extent of<br />
5,092 km 2 was surveyed. During this process<br />
17,518 avalanche paths were mapped. This is<br />
a susceptibility map on a scale of 1:25,000,<br />
useful <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong> planning in the Pyrenean areas.<br />
The methodology is based on the French “Carte<br />
de Localisation des Phénomènes d’Avalanches”<br />
(Pietri, 1993). On this map, the avalanche paths,<br />
mapped from terrain analysis (photointerpretation<br />
<strong>and</strong> field work), are represented in orange, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
inventory in<strong>for</strong>mation (witness surveys, historical<br />
documents, field surveys <strong>and</strong> dendrochronology)<br />
is represented in violet.<br />
vision of the avalanche <strong>hazard</strong> distribution in this<br />
region. The area potentially affected by avalanches<br />
covers 1,257 km 2 . That is at 3.91% of the Catalan<br />
country, <strong>and</strong> considering the Pyrenean territory, it<br />
affects 36%.<br />
At present, all the avalanche in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is stored in the avalanche database of Catalonia<br />
(BDAC). New events, coming from avalanche<br />
observation, are added to this database. The<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation is available via the Internet at:<br />
http://www.icc.cat/msbdac/.<br />
Hazard maps <strong>for</strong> urban planning<br />
At present, <strong>for</strong> all the municipalities that want to<br />
increase their building limits, the procedure is<br />
first of all to make a preliminary <strong>hazard</strong> map on a<br />
1:5,000 scale. This element is, in fact, just a map<br />
of “yes or no”, which states if a <strong>hazard</strong> exists or<br />
not. If the municipality decides not to develop in<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>ous areas, the process finishes. In the case<br />
that the municipality wants to build in the <strong>hazard</strong>zone<br />
areas, more detailed studies have to be<br />
completed. These studies include complex data<br />
collection, usually via drilling specific boreholes,<br />
other geotechnical work, <strong>and</strong> advanced modelling.
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Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Pere Oller, Marta González, Jordi Pinyol,<br />
Jordi Marturià, Pere Martínez<br />
Institut Geològic de Catalunya<br />
C/ Balmes 209/211<br />
08006 Barcelona<br />
Fig. 13: Interface of the avalanche data server<br />
Abb. 13: Benutzeroberfläche des Lawinendatenservers<br />
The phenomena taken into account are l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
rock falls, sinking <strong>and</strong> snow avalanches. In these<br />
maps, the <strong>hazard</strong> mapping is obtained from<br />
frequency/intensity analysis. Advanced modelling<br />
analysis is per<strong>for</strong>med in order to obtain the most<br />
accurate results, <strong>and</strong> to support the observational<br />
data <strong>and</strong> expert criteria. Up to the present day,<br />
there is no st<strong>and</strong>ard methodology. The current<br />
challenge <strong>for</strong> the IGC is to prepare guidelines <strong>for</strong><br />
such a goal in order to guarantee the st<strong>and</strong>ards of<br />
quality <strong>and</strong> homogeneity.<br />
There are preliminary studies of a <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping plan 1:5,000 <strong>for</strong> snow avalanches. In<br />
this map terrain is classified into high <strong>hazard</strong> (red),<br />
medium <strong>hazard</strong> (blue) <strong>and</strong> low <strong>hazard</strong> (yellow).<br />
Urban planning implications regarding <strong>hazard</strong><br />
have not been defined yet. An analysis of the MZA,<br />
supported by the statistical α−β model, resulted in<br />
the identification of 24 urban areas to be mapped.<br />
The mapping methodology includes terrain<br />
analysis, avalanche inventory, nivometeorological<br />
analysis <strong>and</strong> numerical modelling to complete the<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation.<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
PIETRI, C., 1993:<br />
Rénovation de la carte de localisation probable des avalanches. Revue de<br />
Géographie <strong>Alpine</strong> nº1. P. 85-97.<br />
AGÈNCIA CATALANA DE L’AIGUA (Departament de Medi Ambient i<br />
Habitatge). Directrius de planificació i gestió de l’espai fluvial. Guia<br />
tècnica. 45 pp.<br />
ALTIMIR, J.; COPONS, R.; AMIGÓ, J.; COROMINAS, J.; TORREBADELLA,<br />
J. AND VILAPLANA, J.M. (2001):<br />
Zonificació del territori segons el grau de perillositat d’esllavissades al<br />
Principat d’Andorra. Actes de les 1es Jornades del CRECIT. 13 I 14 de<br />
setembre de 2001. P. 119-132.<br />
FLETA, J., ESTRUCH, I. I GOULA, X. (1998).<br />
Geotechnical characterization <strong>for</strong> the regional assesment of seismic risk in<br />
Catalonia. Proceedings 4th Meeting of the Environmental <strong>and</strong> Engineering<br />
Geophysical Society, pàg. 699-702. Barcelona, setembre 1998.<br />
NCSE-02 (2002).<br />
Norma de Construcción Sismorresistente Española. Parte General y de<br />
Edificación, Comisión Permanente de Normas Sismorresistentes, Real<br />
Decreto 997/2002 del 27 de septiembre de 2002, Boletín Oficial del<br />
Estado nº 244, viernes 11 de octubre de 2002. Ministerio de Fomento. P.<br />
35898-35987.
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CLAIRE FOSTER, MATTHEW HARRISON, HELEN J. REEVES<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> Methods of Hazard Assessment <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>Mass</strong> <strong>Movements</strong> in Great Britain<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards und Methoden der Gefahrenbewertung<br />
von <strong>Mass</strong>enbewegungen in Großbritannien<br />
Summary:<br />
With less extreme topography <strong>and</strong> limited tectonic activity, Great Britain experiences a<br />
different l<strong>and</strong>slide regime than countries in many other parts of the world e.g. Italy <strong>and</strong><br />
France. Glacial modification of the l<strong>and</strong>scape during the Pleistocene, followed by severe<br />
periglacial conditions have led to the presence of high numbers of ancient or relict l<strong>and</strong>slides.<br />
Debris flows <strong>and</strong> rock falls common to higher relief areas of Europe occur but are less likely<br />
to interfere with development <strong>and</strong> population centres. Despite the often subdued nature of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides in Great Britain, numerous high profile events in recent years have highlighted the<br />
continued need to produce useable, applied l<strong>and</strong>slide in<strong>for</strong>mation. The British Geological<br />
Survey has developed a national l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility map which can be used to highlight<br />
potential areas of instability. It has been possible to create the national susceptibility map<br />
(GeoSure) because of the existence of vast data archives collected by the survey such as the<br />
National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database, National Geotechnical Database <strong>and</strong> digital geological maps.<br />
This susceptibility map has been extensively used by the insurance industry <strong>and</strong> has also<br />
been adopted <strong>for</strong> a number of externally funded projects targeting specific problems.<br />
Keywords<br />
British Geological Survey, L<strong>and</strong>slides, GeoSure, National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Aufgrund einer weniger extremen Topographie und der beschränkten tektonischen Aktivität des<br />
L<strong>and</strong>es unterscheiden sich Auftreten und Verlauf von Erdrutschen in Großbritannien von denen<br />
in vielen <strong>and</strong>eren Ländern der Welt, z.B. Italien und Frankreich. Glaziale Veränderungen<br />
der L<strong>and</strong>schaft während des Pleistozäns, denen schwierige periglaziale Bedingungen folgten,<br />
haben eine hohe Anzahl von vorzeitlichen oder relikten Bergstürzen verursacht. Die für<br />
höhere Entlastungszonen in Europa typischen Muren und Felsstürze treten zwar auf, doch ihre<br />
Wahrscheinlichkeit, Entwicklungs- und Bevölkerungszentren zu beschädigen, ist gering. Trotz<br />
des häufig geringen Ausmaßes von Erdrutschen in Großbritannien heben zahlreiche bekannte<br />
Ereignisse der letzten Jahre nach wie vor die Notwendigkeit hervor, anwendbare In<strong>for</strong>mationen<br />
über Rutschungen zu erstellen. Vom British Geological Survey (BGS) wurde eine nationale Gefahrenhinweiskarte<br />
für Rutschungen entwickelt, anh<strong>and</strong> derer potentielle Bereiche von Instabilität<br />
aufgezeigt werden können. Die Erstellung der nationalen Gefahrenhinweiskarte (GeoSure)<br />
war auf der Grundlage umfangreicher Datenarchive möglich, die vom BGS zum Beispiel auf<br />
der Grundlage der National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database, der National Geotechnical Database und von<br />
digitalen geologischen Karten angelegt wurden. Diese Gefahrenhinweiskarte findet beispielsweise<br />
in der Versicherungsbranche Anwendung und wurde für eine Reihe extern finanzierter<br />
Projekte übernommen, die auf bestimmte Probleme abzielen.<br />
Schlüsselwörter<br />
British Geological Survey, Rutschungen, GeoSure, National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database<br />
Background on l<strong>and</strong>slide research <strong>and</strong> planning in<br />
Great Britain<br />
Prior to the 1966 Aberfan disaster, which<br />
led to the deaths of 144 people, l<strong>and</strong>sliding<br />
was not widely considered to be particularly<br />
extensive or problematic in Great Britain (GB).<br />
In the years following the disaster, a limited<br />
amount of research into l<strong>and</strong>slide distribution<br />
<strong>and</strong> mechanisms was undertaken but failed to<br />
lead to a structured regulatory framework <strong>for</strong><br />
managing l<strong>and</strong>slide risk. The Aberfan l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>and</strong> costly disruptions to infrastructure projects<br />
in the 1960/70’s (Skempton & Weeks 1976 <strong>and</strong><br />
Early & Skempton 1972) strengthened the view<br />
that the extent of ground instability was neither<br />
well understood nor managed by developers or<br />
planners. This view led to national <strong>assessment</strong>s<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides being carried out in the 1980’s <strong>and</strong><br />
1990’s on which the current national policy is<br />
largely based. These <strong>assessment</strong>s provided the<br />
basis <strong>for</strong> planning policies <strong>and</strong> guidance that, to<br />
some degree, continue to control development<br />
on or around unstable ground. However, limited<br />
resources since this initial push to underst<strong>and</strong> the<br />
problem meant that these initiatives have failed<br />
to develop into an effective, integrated, national<br />
response to deal with l<strong>and</strong>slides in GB. The<br />
current systems, which are neither centralized nor<br />
legally binding, comprise a system of planning<br />
regulations (Town <strong>and</strong> Country Panning Act<br />
1990), guidance notes, operational regulations<br />
<strong>and</strong> building codes (Building Regulations, 2006).<br />
With the exception of the Building Regulations,<br />
none of these legal statutes specifically mention
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l<strong>and</strong>slides. The majority of the legislation can<br />
be interpreted as placing responsibility with the<br />
developer, utility operator or l<strong>and</strong>owner to ensure<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are not an issue.<br />
The main source of regulatory<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation regarding slope instability issues<br />
is contained within Planning Policy Guidance<br />
Note 14 (PPG14) <strong>and</strong> its associated Annex (Anon<br />
1990, 1994). The Annex sets out the procedure <strong>for</strong><br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide recognition <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
emphasises the need to consider ground instability<br />
throughout the whole development process from<br />
l<strong>and</strong>-use planning, through design to construction.<br />
These documents provide recommendations<br />
that slope instability be considered in any<br />
planning decision. If l<strong>and</strong>sliding is a known<br />
issue, ‘a developer’ must provide evidence that<br />
any development activity will not exacerbate<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide activity <strong>and</strong> that any building will be<br />
safe. However, PPG14 is not legally compulsory<br />
<strong>and</strong> only recommends that the local planning<br />
authorities should endeavour to make use of<br />
any relevant expertise when assessing whether a<br />
planning application may be affected by ground<br />
instability. The guidance notes do not specifically<br />
refer to geological or geotechnical expertise<br />
but details of some in<strong>for</strong>mation sources of are<br />
provided, including BGS data. Despite this, there<br />
is no legal compulsion <strong>for</strong> a planning authority<br />
to underst<strong>and</strong> the extent or nature of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s within their area of concern <strong>and</strong>, thus,<br />
include them in planning decisions. Building<br />
regulations put further emphasis on the role of<br />
the developer to control the impact of instability<br />
requiring that “The building shall be constructed<br />
so that ground movement caused by…. l<strong>and</strong>-slip<br />
or subsidence (other than subsidence arising from<br />
shrinkage), in so far as the risk can be reasonably<br />
<strong>for</strong>eseen, will not impair the stability of any part of<br />
the building.” (Anon. 2004).<br />
The current PPG14 predates the era of<br />
GIS <strong>and</strong> advises that citizens consult geological<br />
maps <strong>and</strong> the now defunct Department of the<br />
Environment L<strong>and</strong>slide Database. These sources<br />
of in<strong>for</strong>mation have been superseded by the BGS’s<br />
‘GeoSure’ <strong>and</strong> continually updated National<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Database. Despite the availability of<br />
these resources, national guidance has never<br />
been updated to take this into account. Despite<br />
the advances in l<strong>and</strong>slide mapping <strong>and</strong> <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping, there is still no legal compulsion to use<br />
or consider it within a planning application in GB.<br />
Development of l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps <strong>and</strong><br />
databases in GB<br />
BGS began to map geological <strong>hazard</strong>s digitally in<br />
the mid 1990’s. These early steps have paved the<br />
way <strong>for</strong> the development of much more detailed<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> maps that cover the whole of Great Britain<br />
<strong>and</strong> are complimented by detailed l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
mapping <strong>and</strong> an extensive National L<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
Database (NLD).<br />
The first systematic <strong>assessment</strong> of<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s was triggered by the insurance industry<br />
after it identified a need to better underst<strong>and</strong><br />
geological <strong>hazard</strong>s. Insurance losses caused<br />
by ground movements (including subsidence)<br />
between 1989 <strong>and</strong> 1991 reached around £1-<br />
2bn following a particularly dry period <strong>and</strong>, as<br />
a result, a digital geo<strong>hazard</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation system<br />
(GHASP – GeoHAzard Susceptibility Package)<br />
was developed by the BGS. This first decision<br />
support system (DSS) gave a weighted averaged<br />
result <strong>for</strong> each of the 10000 postcode sectors<br />
in GB <strong>and</strong> came to be used by around 35% of<br />
the Industry (Culshaw & Kelk, 1994). Since<br />
the development of GHASP, improvements in<br />
GIS technology <strong>and</strong> the availability of digital<br />
topographical <strong>and</strong> geological mapping <strong>for</strong> 98%<br />
of GB have led to advances in the methods used<br />
to map geo<strong>hazard</strong> potential.<br />
The BGS has since developed a Geographical<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation System (GIS)-based system (GeoSure)<br />
to assess the principal geological <strong>hazard</strong>s across the<br />
country (Foster et al. 2008, Walsby 2007, 2008).<br />
One output is a GIS layer that provides ratings of<br />
the susceptibility of the country to l<strong>and</strong>sliding on<br />
a rating scale of A (low or nil) to E (significant),<br />
which has been simplified <strong>for</strong> Fig. 1. Importantly, a<br />
high susceptibility score does not necessarily mean<br />
that a l<strong>and</strong>slide has happened in the past or will<br />
do so in the future, but where a l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong><br />
is most likely to occur if the slope conditions are<br />
adversely altered by a change in one or more of<br />
the factors controlling slope instability (Fig. 1).<br />
GeoSure is produced at 1:50,000 scale <strong>and</strong> can<br />
be integrated to show the spatial distribution of<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility in relation to buildings <strong>and</strong><br />
infrastructure. According to the dataset, 350,000<br />
households in the UK, representing 1% of all<br />
housing stock, are in areas considered to have a<br />
'significant' l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility (Rated E).<br />
GeoSure works by modelling the causative<br />
factors of l<strong>and</strong>sliding: lithology, slope angle <strong>and</strong><br />
discontinuities being of prime importance. This has<br />
been made possible through the use of GIS due<br />
to its ability to spatially display <strong>and</strong> manipulate<br />
data (Soeters & Van Westen, 1996). The GeoSure<br />
methodology uses a heuristic approach to assess <strong>and</strong><br />
classify the propensity of a geological <strong>for</strong>mation to<br />
fail as well as to score the relevant causative factors.<br />
The BGS holds large amounts of in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
the lithological nature of the rocks <strong>and</strong> soils within<br />
Great Britain. The National Geotechnical Physical<br />
Properties database contains in<strong>for</strong>mation on the<br />
geographical distribution of physical properties<br />
(such as strength) of a wide range of rocks <strong>and</strong> soils<br />
present in GB. This in<strong>for</strong>mation is vitally important<br />
in determining the propensity of a material to<br />
fail. The scores assigned to each lithology are<br />
based on material strength, permeability <strong>and</strong><br />
known susceptibility to instability. Discontinuities<br />
were assessed as an important causative factor<br />
as they reflect the mass strength of a material, its<br />
susceptibility to failure <strong>and</strong> its ability to allow water<br />
to penetrate a rock mass. Scores were defined in<br />
line with those used in the British St<strong>and</strong>ard 5930:<br />
Field Description of Rocks <strong>and</strong> Soils (British<br />
St<strong>and</strong>ards Institute 1990) <strong>and</strong> by Bieniawski (1989).<br />
Analysis of known l<strong>and</strong>slides showed that slope<br />
angle is one of the major controlling factors <strong>and</strong><br />
this was derived from the NEXTMap digital terrain<br />
model of Britain at a 5m resolution. The scores<br />
<strong>for</strong> all the causative factors at each grid cell are<br />
combined in an algorithm to give an overall score<br />
based on the relative susceptibility to l<strong>and</strong>sliding.<br />
The method is flexible enough to allow alteration<br />
(nationally or locally) of the algorithm in the future<br />
<strong>and</strong> include other factors such as the presence <strong>and</strong><br />
nature of superficial deposits.<br />
Fig. 1: GeoSure layer showing the potential <strong>for</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
<strong>hazard</strong><br />
Abb. 1: GeoSure-Schicht veranschaulicht das Potential von<br />
Rutschungsgefährdungen.
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Another important tool to both in<strong>for</strong>m <strong>and</strong> assess<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility in GB is the National<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide Database (NLD). L<strong>and</strong>slide databases<br />
are commonplace in Europe but there is variability<br />
in their complexity <strong>and</strong> amount of further work<br />
carried out to further enhance or update the<br />
datasets. Assessing an area’s susceptibility to<br />
l<strong>and</strong>sliding requires knowledge of the distribution<br />
of existing failures <strong>and</strong> also an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of<br />
the causative factors <strong>and</strong> their spatial distribution.<br />
This type of in<strong>for</strong>mation is only available from a<br />
detailed database of past events from which one<br />
can draw out relevant in<strong>for</strong>mation which may<br />
in<strong>for</strong>m the user of where l<strong>and</strong>slides may occur<br />
in the future. The National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database<br />
is the most comprehensive source of in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
on recorded l<strong>and</strong>slides in GB <strong>and</strong> currently holds<br />
records of over 15,000 l<strong>and</strong>slide events (Fig.<br />
2). Each of the 15,000+ l<strong>and</strong>slide records can<br />
hold in<strong>for</strong>mation on over 35 attributes including<br />
location, dimensions, l<strong>and</strong>slide type, trigger<br />
mechanism, damage caused, slope angle, slope<br />
aspect, material, movement date, vegetation,<br />
hydrogeology, age, development <strong>and</strong> a full<br />
bibliographic reference. A fully digital workflow<br />
has been developed at BGS to enable capture<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slide in<strong>for</strong>mation. The first stage of the<br />
process involves using digital aerial photograph<br />
interpretation software (SocetSet) to capture<br />
digital l<strong>and</strong>slide polygons which can then be<br />
altered through field checking using BGS·SIGMA<br />
mobile technology (Jordan 2009; Jordan et al.<br />
2005). BGS·SIGMAmobile is the BGS digital field<br />
data capture system running on rugged tablet PCs<br />
with integrated GPS units, <strong>and</strong> is used extensively<br />
<strong>for</strong> all geological mapping activities within the<br />
British Geological Survey (Jordan et al., 2008).<br />
When collecting l<strong>and</strong>slide in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
either <strong>for</strong> the NLD or <strong>for</strong> digital maps,<br />
internationally recognised st<strong>and</strong>ards have been<br />
followed where appropriate. The database<br />
Fig. 2: Distribution of l<strong>and</strong>slide database points from the<br />
National L<strong>and</strong>slide GIS database. OS topography © Crown<br />
Copyright. All rights reserved.<br />
Abb. 2: Verteilung der Rutschungs-Datenbankpunkte von der<br />
National L<strong>and</strong>slide GIS Datenbank. OS Topographie © Crown<br />
Copyright. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.<br />
dictionaries have been produced using<br />
internationally recognised terminology. For<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide type, the dictionary definitions follow<br />
the conventions set out by Varnes (1978), the<br />
EPOCH project (Flageollet, J.C., 1993) <strong>and</strong> the<br />
WP/WLI (1990). Age <strong>and</strong> activity of a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
are important factors to record within a l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventory. Temporal l<strong>and</strong>slide data is as important<br />
to underst<strong>and</strong>ing the geomorphic evolution of an<br />
area as the spatial distribution of slides. However,<br />
it is extremely difficult to date ancient l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
events with any degree of accuracy <strong>and</strong>, as such,<br />
the ages assigned to l<strong>and</strong>slides only provide an<br />
arbitrary indication of age. The WP/WLI (1990)<br />
regrouped the Varnes (1978) definitions on<br />
age <strong>and</strong> activity under the following headings:<br />
'state of activity,' 'distribution of activity' <strong>and</strong><br />
'style of activity.' Whilst the NLD follows the<br />
style of activity definitions, it has simplified the<br />
state of activity terms defined by Varnes (1978)<br />
into active, inactive <strong>and</strong> stabilised whilst also<br />
adding descriptions on the state of development<br />
(Advanced, degraded, incipient). Whilst activity<br />
state <strong>and</strong> style have been described in the WP/<br />
WLI definitions (WP/WLI, 1993), age has been<br />
somewhat neglected. Data <strong>for</strong> modern l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
observed either at the time of the event or through<br />
comparison of aerial photographs <strong>and</strong> geological<br />
mapping, is included in the NLD. To record cause,<br />
the NLD has incorporated both triggering <strong>and</strong><br />
preparatory factors, limited to those most likely to<br />
be identifiable <strong>and</strong> relevant in GB. The definitions<br />
are based upon the WP/WLI (1990).<br />
Further adaptations of l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps<br />
in Great Britain<br />
Following the creation of the Geosure<br />
methodology, BGS has worked within a<br />
consortium including the Transport Research<br />
Laboratory (TRL) <strong>and</strong> the Scottish Executive to<br />
create a digital <strong>hazard</strong> layer specifically <strong>for</strong> debris<br />
flows. This work was triggered in August 2004<br />
following a period of intense rainfall which led<br />
to two debris flows trapping 57 motorists on the<br />
A85 trunk road in Scotl<strong>and</strong>. As a consequence<br />
of this event <strong>and</strong> others during the same period,<br />
the Scottish Executive commissioned a study to<br />
assess the potential impact of further debris flows<br />
on the transport network of Scotl<strong>and</strong> (Winter et<br />
al., 2005). BGS was involved in the provision of a<br />
GIS layer highlighting slopes susceptible to debris<br />
flows. Debris flows, one of the five main types<br />
of l<strong>and</strong>slides, have a specific set of preparatory<br />
criteria which differs from translational <strong>and</strong><br />
rotational slides. This modified <strong>assessment</strong><br />
sought to digitally capture this set of criteria <strong>and</strong><br />
create a layer showing areas where debris flows<br />
are most likely to occur in the future. An initial<br />
study determined five main components which<br />
should be considered when determining the<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> potential of debris flows affecting the road<br />
network:<br />
1. Availability of debris material<br />
2. Hydrogeological conditions<br />
3. L<strong>and</strong> use<br />
4. Proximity of stream channels<br />
5. Slope angle<br />
It was considered that in<strong>for</strong>mation regarding each<br />
of these could be extracted from existing digital<br />
datasets. The resulting interpreted data were<br />
combined to produce a working model of debris<br />
flow <strong>hazard</strong> that could be validated by comparing<br />
with known events (Fig. 2). The A85 debris flow<br />
event in 2004 is shown alongside the modelled<br />
susceptibility layer, existing drainage channels<br />
are shown as particularly susceptible to failure<br />
through debris flows. Whilst the <strong>assessment</strong> of<br />
debris flows highlights areas where they may<br />
occur in the future, it does not attempt to model<br />
the run-out of such failures.<br />
Future Developments<br />
Currently, work is ongoing to validate the current<br />
methodology against statistical methods such<br />
as bivariate statistical analysis <strong>and</strong> probabilistic<br />
methods. The GeoSure method is based upon<br />
expert knowledge <strong>and</strong> a heuristic approach<br />
which is being tested against more statistic-based<br />
approaches to assess its validity. Naranjo et al.,<br />
(1994) consider statistical methods to be the<br />
most appropriate method <strong>for</strong> mapping regional<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility because the technique is<br />
objective, reproducible <strong>and</strong> easily updateable.<br />
Bivariate analysis <strong>for</strong> instance relies upon the<br />
availability of l<strong>and</strong>slide occurrence <strong>and</strong> causal<br />
parameter maps, which are compared against
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distributed data <strong>and</strong> causal factor in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
contained in the National L<strong>and</strong>slide Database of<br />
Great Britain, assesses the l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
in Great Britain. It uses a heuristic approach to<br />
model the causative factors that cause these<br />
events. It assesses <strong>and</strong> classifies the propensity of<br />
a geological <strong>for</strong>mation to fail as well as to score<br />
the relevant causative factors (e.g. slope angle).<br />
By using these methodologies <strong>and</strong> datasets, a<br />
national <strong>assessment</strong> of the potential <strong>hazard</strong> to<br />
l<strong>and</strong>sliding mass movement events in Great<br />
Britain can there<strong>for</strong>e be undertaken.<br />
BIENIAWSKI Z T (1989).<br />
Engineering Rock <strong>Mass</strong> Classifications. Wiley Interscience, New York, 272 p<br />
BRITISH STANDARDS INSTITUTE. (1990).<br />
BS 5930. The Code of practice <strong>for</strong> site investigations. HMSO, London, 206 p<br />
EARLY, K.R. & SKEMPTON, A. 1972.<br />
Investigation of the l<strong>and</strong>slide at Walton's Wood, Staf<strong>for</strong>dshire. Quarterly<br />
Journal of Engineering Geology, 5, 19-41.<br />
FLAGEOLLET, J. C. (Ed) 1993.<br />
Temporal occurrence <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting of l<strong>and</strong>slides in the. European<br />
Community. EPOCH (European Community Programme).<br />
FOSTER, C, GIBSON, AD & WILDMAN, G (2008).<br />
The new national l<strong>and</strong>slide database <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>assessment</strong><br />
of Great Britain. In: Sassa, K, Fukuoka, H & Nagai, H + 35 others (eds),<br />
Proceedings of the First World L<strong>and</strong>slide Forum, United Nations University,<br />
Tokyo. The International Promotion Committee of the International<br />
Programme on L<strong>and</strong>slides (IPL), Tokyo, Parallel Session Volume, 203-206.<br />
JORDAN, C. J., 2009. BGS∙SIGMAmobile; the BGS Digital Field Mapping<br />
System in Action. Digital Mapping Techniques 2009 Proceedings, May 10-<br />
13, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA, Vol. U.S. Geological Survey Openfile<br />
Report.<br />
Fig. 3a: Extract from the debris flow susceptibility layer along with<br />
b: the Glen Ogle debris flow of 2004.<br />
Abb. 3a: Ausschnitt der Gefahrenhinweiskarte für Muren, gemeinsam<br />
mit b: dem Murgang in Glen Ogle, 2004.<br />
each other to create a weighted value <strong>for</strong> each<br />
parameter determined by calculating the l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
density (Aleotti <strong>and</strong> Chowdhury, 1999 <strong>and</strong> Süzen<br />
<strong>and</strong> Doyuran, 2004). Results from an initial pilot<br />
study suggest that, in small areas, where detailed<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide mapping exists, bivariate (conditional<br />
probability) <strong>and</strong> probabilistic approaches are able<br />
to more accurately predict l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
than GeoSure. However, this approach only<br />
works where l<strong>and</strong>slides have been mapped. This<br />
technique cannot be used where no l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
mapping has been undertaken. Another issue<br />
with the conditional probability technique is that<br />
it relies on the assumption that all the parameters<br />
are mutually exclusive. The value of the heuristic<br />
approach is its ability to highlight areas where<br />
there are no known l<strong>and</strong>slides but where there is<br />
existing knowledge on the underlying causative<br />
factors. The heuristic approach is able to produce<br />
national scale <strong>assessment</strong>s which could be refined<br />
in the future by numerical methods <strong>for</strong> smaller,<br />
regional studies.<br />
Further adaptations to the GeoSure<br />
methodology, similar to those used to assess<br />
debris flows, are planned <strong>for</strong> the future. Rock fall<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> could be another type of mass movement<br />
that is investigated using the heuristic GeoSure<br />
approach applying different causal factors <strong>and</strong><br />
scoring algorithms.<br />
Conclusion<br />
In Great Britain, l<strong>and</strong>sliding does not have a<br />
structured regulatory framework, but historical<br />
events, such as the Aberfan disaster <strong>and</strong> Scottish<br />
debris flow events (Winter et al, 2005), have<br />
highlighted the importance of underst<strong>and</strong>ing<br />
the distribution <strong>and</strong> mechanisms that cause<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide mass movement events in Great Britain.<br />
The BGS GeoSure methodology, using spatially<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Dr. Helen J. Reeves<br />
Head of Science L<strong>and</strong> Use<br />
Planning & Development<br />
British Geological Survey,<br />
Kingsley Dunham Centre,<br />
Keyworth, Nottingham.<br />
United Kingdom, NG12 5GG.<br />
Direct Tel:- +44 (0)115 936 3381<br />
Mobile:- +44 (0)7989301144<br />
Fax:- +44 (0)115 936 3385<br />
E-mail:- hjre@bgs.ac.uk<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
ALEOTTI, P., AND CHOWDHURY, R. 1999.<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong>: Summary review <strong>and</strong> new perspectives.<br />
Bulletin Engineering Geology <strong>and</strong> Environment, Vol. 58, pp. 21–44.<br />
ANON. (1990).<br />
Planning Policy Guidance 14: Development on Unstable L<strong>and</strong>. Department<br />
of the Environment, Welsh Office. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.<br />
ANON. (1994).<br />
Planning Policy Guidance 14 (Annex 1): Development on Unstable L<strong>and</strong>:<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> Planning. Department of the Environment, Welsh Office.<br />
Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.<br />
Anon. (2004). The Building Regulations 2000 (Structure), Approved<br />
Document A, 2004 Edition. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Her<br />
Majesty's Stationery Office, London.<br />
CULSHAW, MG & KELK, B (1994).<br />
A national geo-<strong>hazard</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation system <strong>for</strong> the UK insurance industry<br />
- the development of a commercial product in a geological survey<br />
environment. In: Proceedings of the 1st European Congress on Regional<br />
Geological Cartography <strong>and</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation Systems, Bologna, Italy. 4, Paper<br />
111, 3p.<br />
JORDAN, C. J., BEE, E. J., SMITH, N. A., LAWLEY, R. S., FORD, J.,<br />
HOWARD, A. S., AND LAXTON, J. L., 2005.<br />
The development of digital field data collection systems to fulfil the British<br />
Geological Survey mapping requirements. GIS <strong>and</strong> Spatial Analysis:<br />
Annual Conference of the International Association <strong>for</strong> Mathematical<br />
Geology, Toronto, Canada, York University, 886-891.<br />
NARANJO, J.L., VAN WESTEN, C.J. AND SOETERS, R. 1994.<br />
Evaluating the use of training areas in bivariate statistical l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong><br />
analysis: a case study in Colombia. International Institute <strong>for</strong> Aerial Survey<br />
<strong>and</strong> Earth Sciences. 3 : 292–300<br />
SKEMPTON, A. & WEEKS, A. 1976<br />
The Quaternary history of the Lower Greens<strong>and</strong> escarpment <strong>and</strong> Weald<br />
Clay vale near Sevenoaks, Kent. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal<br />
Society, A, 283, 493-526.<br />
SOETERS, R. & VAN WESTEN, C.J. 1996.<br />
Slope instability recognition, analysis <strong>and</strong> zonation. In: Transportation<br />
Research Board Special Report 247, National Research Council, National<br />
Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 129-177.<br />
SUZEN, M.L. AND DOYURAN, V. 2004.<br />
A comparison of the GIS based l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong> methods:<br />
multivariate versus bivariate. Environmental Geology, 45, 665- 679.<br />
THE BUILDING AND APPROVED INSPECTORS REGULATIONS<br />
(Amendment). 2006. HMSO.<br />
TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING ACT. 1990. HMSO.<br />
VARNES D. J.: Slope movement types <strong>and</strong> processes. In: Schuster R. L. &<br />
Krizek R. J. Ed., L<strong>and</strong>slides, analysis <strong>and</strong> control. Transportation Research<br />
Board Sp. Rep. No. 176, Nat. Acad. oi Sciences, pp. 11–33, 1978.<br />
WALSBY, JC (2007).<br />
Geo<strong>hazard</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation to meet the needs of the British public <strong>and</strong><br />
government policy. Quaternary International, 171/172: 179-185.<br />
WALSBY, JC (2008).<br />
GeoSure; a bridge between geology <strong>and</strong> decision-makers. In: Liverman,<br />
D.G.E., Pereira, CPG & Marker, B (eds.) Communicating environmental<br />
geoscience. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 305: 81-87.<br />
WINTER, M. G., MACGREGOR, F & SHACKMAN, L (Eds) 2005.<br />
Scottish Road Network L<strong>and</strong>slides Study. The Scottish Executive. Edinburgh.<br />
WP/ WLI. 1993.<br />
A suggested method <strong>for</strong> describing the activity of a l<strong>and</strong>slide. Bulletin of the<br />
International Association of Engineering Geology, No. 47, 53-57.<br />
WP/ WLI. (International Geotechnical Societies UNESCO Working Party on<br />
World L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory) 1990.<br />
A suggested method <strong>for</strong> reporting a l<strong>and</strong>slide. Bulletin of the International<br />
Association of Engineering Geology, No. 41, 5-12.
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KARL MAYER, BERNHARD LOCHNER<br />
International Comparison: Summary of the Expert<br />
Hearing in Bolzano on 17 March 2010<br />
Internationaler Vergleich: Zusammenfassung<br />
des Expert Hearings in Bozen vom 17. März 2010<br />
Zusammenfassung:<br />
Das AdaptAlp Workpackage 5 „Expert Hearing“ am 17. März 2010 in Bozen wurde von 28 Experten<br />
aus acht Ländern besucht und widmete sich inhaltlich vollständig den Zielen von Action<br />
5.1: Der Aufbau eines mehrsprachigen Glossars zu Hangbewegungen und insbesondere die<br />
Erarbeitung von Mindestan<strong>for</strong>derungen zur Erstellung von Gefahrenkarten. Neben einer kurzen<br />
Vorstellung des Projekt<strong>for</strong>tschrittes und der weiteren Vorgehensweise hinsichtlich der Erarbeitung<br />
eines mehrsprachigen Glossars wurde von Vertretern aus allen beteiligten Ländern der jeweilige<br />
„State oft the Art“ bezüglich Gefahrenkartierung vorgestellt. Ausgehend von diesen Präsentationen,<br />
welche die Grundlage für das weitere Vorgehen bilden, wurden im Anschluss an das Treffen<br />
Kurzzusammenfassungen für jede Region verfasst, welche innerhalb eines Gesamtberichtes auf<br />
der AdaptAlp Homepage (www.adaptalp.org) einzusehen sind. In einem weiteren Schritt wurden<br />
auf Basis dieser Beiträge zwei Tabellen erstellt, welche einerseits alle verwendeten Karten<br />
strukturiert nach verschiedenen Typen und <strong>and</strong>ererseits unterschiedliche Charakteristiken von<br />
Karten zusammenfassen und auf Länderebene vergleichen. Mithilfe dieser Matrizen werden Gemeinsamkeiten<br />
und Unterschiede zwischen den beteiligten Regionen sichtbar und ein „kleinster<br />
gemeinsamer Nenner“ kann erarbeitet und in einem nächsten Meeting (Dezember 2010) fixiert<br />
werden. Ergebnis dieses Vorgehens und des Projektteiles wird eine Zusammenstellung von Mindestan<strong>for</strong>derungen<br />
zur Erstellung von Gefahrenhinweiskarten und Gefahrenkarten sein.<br />
Summary:<br />
The AdaptAlp work package 5 “Expert Hearing” on March 17th, 2010 in Bolzano was<br />
attended by 28 experts from eight countries. It was dedicated to the goals of action 5.1: The<br />
creation of a multilingual glossary on l<strong>and</strong>slides <strong>and</strong> especially the elaboration of minimum<br />
requirements <strong>for</strong> “<strong>hazard</strong> mapping”. Beside a short presentation on the progress <strong>and</strong> the<br />
further approach of the multilingual glossary, the “state of the art” in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping<br />
<strong>for</strong> each involved region was presented by several people responsible. Based on these<br />
presentations, which build the basis <strong>for</strong> the further approach, short abstracts were composed<br />
<strong>for</strong> each region. These short descriptions can be seen inside the official Hearings report<br />
published on the AdaptAlp Homepage (www.adaptalp.org). In a further step, based on these<br />
abstracts <strong>and</strong> the presentations, two tables were created. On the one h<strong>and</strong>, all used maps<br />
were grouped according to different types <strong>and</strong> on the other h<strong>and</strong> diverse characteristics of<br />
maps were summarized <strong>and</strong> compared at the country level. With these matrices, similarities<br />
<strong>and</strong> differences between the involved regions become visible <strong>and</strong> a “least common<br />
denominator” could be elaborated. These denominators should be discussed at the next<br />
meeting (December 2010) <strong>and</strong>, as a result, a compilation of minimum requirements to the<br />
creation of “Danger, Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk maps” will be published.<br />
1. Introduction<br />
In dealing with geological <strong>hazard</strong>s today,<br />
geotechnical (active) <strong>and</strong> spatial (passive)<br />
measures come to implementation to minimize<br />
risk. Because of a time limitation of active<br />
measures (e.g. protective walls) <strong>and</strong> the decrease<br />
of space <strong>for</strong> permanent settlings, spatial planning<br />
gets more <strong>and</strong> more important. Due to avalanche<br />
catastrophes in the 1950’s which were affecting<br />
large parts of the Alps, in 1954 in the Swiss<br />
municipal Gadmen, the first “Avalanche-Zone-<br />
Plan” was passed. This was the first time a natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> was considered in spatial planning (cf.<br />
Glade a. Felgentreff 2008, p 160f).<br />
Nowadays, almost 60 years later, “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping” is a central part in risk management.<br />
Countless types of “Danger, Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk<br />
maps” are produced <strong>for</strong> all kinds of risks. With<br />
regard to natural <strong>hazard</strong>s, especially geological<br />
processes, a large variety of maps <strong>and</strong> methods<br />
are used in the different European countries to<br />
prevent natural disasters.<br />
Exactly this variety, which reaches<br />
from simple danger mappings to legally binding<br />
“Hazard Zone Plans” (Gefahrenzonenplan),<br />
should be shown inside this part of the AdaptAlp<br />
project. However main goal of work package 5<br />
(WP 5) is not only the description of this variety, but<br />
a development of a “least common denominator”<br />
which includes the minimum requirements <strong>for</strong> the<br />
creation of Danger, Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk maps.<br />
This article focuses on the AdaptAlp<br />
“Expert Hearing” from 17 March 2010 take place<br />
in Bolzano <strong>and</strong> which dedicates the contents of<br />
work package 5. In the following sections, the<br />
main goals of this meeting <strong>and</strong> the contributions<br />
from the involved experts were shown. In the<br />
final chapter, first basic approaches concerning a<br />
possible synthesis out of the big variety of “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
planning methods” is pointed out.
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Seite 161<br />
2. Main goals of the “Expert Hearing”<br />
The topics of the expert hearing are all about the<br />
goals of the AdaptAlp Work package 5 – “Hazard<br />
Mapping”:<br />
“Hazard zones are designated areas<br />
threatened by natural risks such as avalanches,<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides or flooding. The <strong>for</strong>mulation of these<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> zones is an important aspect of spatial<br />
planning. AdaptAlp will evaluate, harmonise <strong>and</strong><br />
improve different methods of <strong>hazard</strong> zone planning<br />
applied in the <strong>Alpine</strong> area. Focus will be on a<br />
comparison of methods <strong>for</strong> mapping geological<br />
<strong>and</strong> water risks in the individual countries. A<br />
glossary will facilitate transdisciplinary <strong>and</strong><br />
translingual cooperation as well as support the<br />
harmonisation of the various methods. In selected<br />
model regions, methods to adapt risk analysis to<br />
the impact of climate change will be tested. This<br />
should support the development of <strong>hazard</strong> zone<br />
planning towards a climate change adaptation<br />
strategy. The results will be summarized in a<br />
synthesis report (www.adaptalp.org).<br />
The official description of WP 5 shows<br />
two main parts (goals), which are worked out in<br />
Action 5.1 under the leadership of the Bavarian<br />
Environment Agency (LfU) in collaboration with<br />
the alpS – Centre <strong>for</strong> Natural Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk<br />
Management in Innsbruck <strong>and</strong> with the inputs<br />
from the international experts of the project<br />
partners.<br />
The two main goals are the elaboration<br />
of a “multilingual glossary to l<strong>and</strong>slides” <strong>and</strong> the<br />
development of “minimum st<strong>and</strong>ards to create<br />
danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps”.<br />
As announced in the introduction,<br />
the main focus of the hearing in Bolzano lies<br />
on the elaboration of basics <strong>for</strong> the definition<br />
of minimum st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>for</strong> <strong>hazard</strong> mapping.<br />
There<strong>for</strong>e the progress of the glossary was only<br />
addressed inside a short presentation at the<br />
beginning of this meeting. The rest of this one-day<br />
session was dedicated to the contents of <strong>hazard</strong><br />
mapping. Due to this <strong>and</strong> the fact that the glossary<br />
part is already described in detail within chapter<br />
2.6 of this publication, this article only refers to<br />
the <strong>hazard</strong> mapping part.<br />
3. Hazard mapping in the <strong>Alpine</strong> regions<br />
At the beginning of this chapter, it is important<br />
to clarify that, because of the scheduled timing<br />
of the project, at this time no final results can be<br />
presented. Nevertheless, the theoretical approach<br />
<strong>and</strong> the already achieved marks can be shown. In<br />
general the course of action in getting a “synthesis”<br />
to <strong>hazard</strong> mapping is structured in three steps.<br />
First step is the evaluation of the “state of the art”<br />
in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping in each country involved.<br />
Exactly this point was the intention <strong>and</strong> the<br />
main goal of the hearing in Bolzano. Two main<br />
questions remained to be answered:<br />
• What kinds of danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps<br />
are officially applied in each country?<br />
• Which st<strong>and</strong>ards are these maps based on?<br />
To answer these questions, each participant gave<br />
a short overview of the official used danger,<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps <strong>and</strong> also in<strong>for</strong>mation on<br />
the creation of such maps were given in short<br />
presentations.<br />
The second step will be the<br />
“harmonisation” of the different methods used in<br />
several countries. There<strong>for</strong>e similarities should be<br />
worked out <strong>and</strong> the “least common denominator”<br />
in the methods of <strong>hazard</strong> mapping should be<br />
found. This second step is to be discussed in detail<br />
in the next workshop at the end of 2010.<br />
The final part will be the creation<br />
of a report, which includes the results of this<br />
“harmonisation”. Within the hearing in Bolzano,<br />
the plenum discussed the possible commitment<br />
of such a report <strong>for</strong> each country. However the<br />
title of the project contained the term “minimum<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards”, which rather sounds like a legal<br />
term, the involved experts decided to switch to<br />
word st<strong>and</strong>ards with “requirements”. So this legal<br />
character is avoided <strong>and</strong> the final report will<br />
include a part with “minimum requirements to the<br />
creation of danger, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong> risk maps”.<br />
4. Short summary from the “expert-contributions”<br />
in Bolzano<br />
In the following sections, the “state of the art -<br />
presentations” from several experts in Bolzano are<br />
shown in short summaries <strong>for</strong> each country.<br />
4.1 Germany<br />
In Germany, geogenic natural <strong>hazard</strong>s, such<br />
as mass movements, karstification, large scale<br />
flooding, as well as building ground that is<br />
affected by subsidence <strong>and</strong> uplift, shall in future<br />
be recorded, assessed <strong>and</strong> spatially represented<br />
using a common minimum st<strong>and</strong>ard. An<br />
important component <strong>for</strong> developing danger maps<br />
is the construction <strong>and</strong> evaluation of l<strong>and</strong>slide<br />
inventories (e.g. l<strong>and</strong>slide or sinkhole inventories).<br />
The recorded data in the inventories should have a<br />
minimal nationwide st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> are divided into:<br />
• Main data on the topic area mass<br />
movements <strong>and</strong> subrosion / karst with<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about the spatial positioning,<br />
about determination of coordinates, etc.<br />
• Commonly shared technical data of<br />
the subject area mass movements <strong>and</strong><br />
subrosion / karst with in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
the date of origin, about the l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong><br />
about damage, etc.<br />
• Specific technical data of the subject area<br />
mass movement <strong>and</strong> subrosion / karst<br />
• Surface data concerning subsidence <strong>and</strong><br />
uplift<br />
Regarding l<strong>and</strong>slides, slide, fall, flow <strong>and</strong><br />
subrosion processes are recorded in the<br />
inventories. Methods lasting from field studies to<br />
computerized modelling are used <strong>for</strong> the creation<br />
of these “danger maps”. In Germany, danger<br />
maps serve as a first estimation of possible natural<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s caused by certain geological conditions<br />
<strong>and</strong> should serve as a planning reference <strong>for</strong><br />
possible investigations of individual objects where<br />
necessary. On the danger map, the areas in which<br />
natural <strong>hazard</strong>s are possible are not delineated<br />
precisely <strong>and</strong> local conditions (e.g. prevention<br />
schemes, topographic peculiarities) are not taken<br />
into consideration in every case. Because of these<br />
reasons, it is recommended adding the following<br />
annotations <strong>for</strong> each subject area:<br />
“The following map was created <strong>for</strong> a<br />
1:25,000 scale <strong>and</strong> is not precise. It serves as a<br />
first estimation of possible engineering geological<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> cannot replace a geotechnical<br />
survey. Areas within the immediate vicinity of<br />
danger fields can also be affected. The intensity<br />
<strong>and</strong> probability of a possible event cannot be<br />
extracted from the map.”<br />
4.2 Austria<br />
At this time there is no regulatory framework or<br />
technical norm concerning mass movements in<br />
Austria. Only the course of actions concerning<br />
floods, avalanches <strong>and</strong> debris flows are regulated<br />
by law. This includes the generation of “<strong>hazard</strong><br />
zoning maps” (“Gefahrenzonenplan”). These are<br />
generated by the Austrian Service <strong>for</strong> Torrent <strong>and</strong><br />
Avalanche Control (Forsttechnischer Dienst für<br />
Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung, WLV).
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As there are no legal instructions or st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />
in Austria about if or how to deal with the<br />
evaluation of mass movements, the federal states<br />
are all following a different course of action.<br />
The status of available data is very different in<br />
the individual states. In some of the federal<br />
states almost no data is available, others have a<br />
lot of data but not digitally available. And then<br />
there are states that can rely on a lot of digitally<br />
available data <strong>and</strong> are working on generating<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility maps.<br />
4.3 Italy (Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna, Province Bolzano)<br />
In Italy the national law (high level, n. 445/1908)<br />
<strong>and</strong> Royal Decree R.D. (n. 3267/1923) were the<br />
first public regulations on l<strong>and</strong> use planning. At<br />
the beginning of ‘70s the l<strong>and</strong> use management<br />
was transferred to regions.<br />
The national Law n. 183/1989<br />
introduced l<strong>and</strong> use planning at a basin scale.<br />
The government sets the st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> general<br />
aims without fixing a methodology to analyse <strong>and</strong><br />
evaluate the dangers, <strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> risks related<br />
to natural phenomena. The same law designated<br />
the Autorità di Bacino (Basin Authority) whose<br />
main goal is to draw up the Basin Plan, a tool <strong>for</strong><br />
planning actions <strong>and</strong> rules <strong>for</strong> conservation <strong>and</strong><br />
protection of the territory.<br />
One of the available tools produced by<br />
ARPA Piemonte is the Italian L<strong>and</strong>slides Inventory<br />
(IFFI). It is a national program of l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
inventory, sponsored by national authorities <strong>and</strong><br />
made locally by the regions. It is the first try of<br />
an inventory based on common graphical legend<br />
<strong>and</strong> glossary.<br />
The Emilia-Romagna L<strong>and</strong>slide Inventory<br />
Map (LIM) reports over 70,000 l<strong>and</strong>slides, while<br />
the historical data base contains about 6,600<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide events. LIM may be considered as an<br />
elementary <strong>for</strong>m of a <strong>hazard</strong> map <strong>and</strong>, based<br />
on this, en<strong>for</strong>ce rules <strong>and</strong> obligations addressing<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> reduction: only existing hamlets<br />
<strong>and</strong> villages can extend on dormant l<strong>and</strong>slides;<br />
on active ones, all new construction is <strong>for</strong>bidden.<br />
Otherwise, the use of a purely descriptive<br />
terminology (active, dormant), restricts the<br />
usability of this map, being often obsolete, <strong>and</strong> is<br />
there<strong>for</strong>e a frequent bone of contention.<br />
In the federal state law from 11 August<br />
1997, the base <strong>for</strong> the approval of guidelines to the<br />
creation of <strong>hazard</strong> plans (Gefahrenzonenpläne) <strong>for</strong><br />
South Tyrol was laid. Also the role of municipalities<br />
was defined to carry out the planning within<br />
three years. Finally, the approval of plans <strong>and</strong> the<br />
role of coinvolved partners are also part of this<br />
law. The scale of this legal binding <strong>hazard</strong> plan<br />
(“Gefahrenzonenplan”) in South Tyrol tends to the<br />
working level of detail <strong>for</strong> the analyzed area. In<br />
settlements, a 1:5,000 scale <strong>and</strong> in other regions a<br />
1:10,000 scale is used <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>slides, hydrological<br />
<strong>hazard</strong>s <strong>and</strong> avalanches are analyzed.<br />
4.4 Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
Switzerl<strong>and</strong> is a <strong>hazard</strong>-prone country exposed<br />
to many mass movements, but also to floods <strong>and</strong><br />
snow avalanches. Active <strong>and</strong> dormant l<strong>and</strong>slides<br />
take some 6% of the national surface. Most of the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slides are very slow or slow reaching some<br />
millimetres to centimetres of displacement per<br />
year. Sudden slope movements with velocities up<br />
to 40 m/s are also observed (e.g. rock avalanches).<br />
The federal laws came into <strong>for</strong>ce in 1991 <strong>and</strong> are<br />
based on an integrated approach to protect people<br />
<strong>and</strong> property from natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. The nontechnical,<br />
preventive measures are of particular<br />
importance: l<strong>and</strong>-use planning, zoning, building<br />
codes. The reference documents in Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />
are the natural <strong>hazard</strong> maps. The techniques<br />
<strong>for</strong> developing these maps are outlined in the<br />
federal guideline where a three step procedure is<br />
proposed:<br />
1) Firstly, an indispensable prerequisite <strong>for</strong> the<br />
l<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> identification is obtaining<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about past slope failure events:<br />
the maps of phenomena <strong>and</strong> the registration<br />
of events (database).<br />
2) Secondly, <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> implies the<br />
determination of magnitude or intensity<br />
over time. Five classes of <strong>hazard</strong> are<br />
determined in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>: high danger<br />
(red zone), moderate danger (blue zone),<br />
low danger (yellow zone), residual danger<br />
(yellow-white zone) <strong>and</strong> no danger (white<br />
zone).<br />
3) Based on the <strong>hazard</strong> maps <strong>and</strong> risk analysis,<br />
three kinds of measures can be then taken<br />
(third step): planning measures, technical<br />
measures <strong>and</strong> organizational measures.<br />
4.5 France<br />
The plan <strong>for</strong> prevention of natural <strong>hazard</strong>s (plan<br />
de prévention des risques naturels prévisibles -<br />
PPR) established by the law of 2 February 1995<br />
is the “central” tool of the French State's action<br />
in preventing natural <strong>hazard</strong>s. The elaboration<br />
of the PPR is conducted under the authority of<br />
the prefect of the department, which approves it<br />
after <strong>for</strong>mal consultation of municipalities <strong>and</strong> a<br />
public inquiry. The PPR is achieved by involving<br />
local <strong>and</strong> regional concerned authorities from the<br />
beginning of its preparation. It can h<strong>and</strong>le only<br />
one type of <strong>hazard</strong> or more <strong>and</strong> cover one or<br />
several municipalities.<br />
In the frame of this common procedure,<br />
a general methodological guidelines document<br />
has been published. One of these guideline<br />
documents is dedicated to geological <strong>hazard</strong>s,<br />
which includes subsidence, sinking, collapse,<br />
rock falls, l<strong>and</strong>slides, <strong>and</strong> associated mud flows,<br />
but excludes debris flows.<br />
4.6 Engl<strong>and</strong><br />
Up until 1966, the UK Government were not<br />
interested in Geo<strong>hazard</strong>s, they were more<br />
interested in finding oil <strong>and</strong> gas to help the UK<br />
economy develop <strong>and</strong> exp<strong>and</strong>. After the Aberfan<br />
disaster (where 144 people, 116 of them children),<br />
the UK government were much more interested<br />
<strong>and</strong> funded a number of research projects to look<br />
at the UK’s geo<strong>hazard</strong>s.<br />
An inventory is the first step in<br />
building an underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the occurrence of<br />
geo<strong>hazard</strong>s. Currently BGS maintains two main<br />
shallow geo<strong>hazard</strong> databases: the National<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>and</strong> Karst Database (www.bgs.ac.uk).<br />
These inventories provide the basis <strong>for</strong> analysing<br />
the spatial distribution of the geo<strong>hazard</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
their causal factors. From this underst<strong>and</strong>ing<br />
susceptibility can be assessed. In 2002, BGS<br />
developed a nationwide susceptibility <strong>assessment</strong><br />
of deterministic geo<strong>hazard</strong>s such as l<strong>and</strong>slides,<br />
skrink-swell, etc. called GeoSure (http://www.bgs.<br />
ac.uk/products/geosure/).<br />
4.7 Spain (Catalonia)<br />
The Parliament of Catalonia approved, with Law<br />
19/2005, the creation of the Geological Institute<br />
of Catalonia (IGC), assigned to the Ministry<br />
of L<strong>and</strong> Planning <strong>and</strong> Public Infrastructures<br />
(DPTOP) of the Catalonian Government. The<br />
most important mapping plan is the Geological<br />
Hazard Prevention Map of Catalonia 1:25,000<br />
(MPRGC25M). As a component of the<br />
Geoworks of the IGC, the strategic program
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Comparison of different maps <strong>and</strong> their scales<br />
Austria Germany Switzerl<strong>and</strong> Slovenia Italy France Spain UK<br />
Level Type of map GBA <strong>and</strong> Kärnten WLV Bayern CH Slovenia<br />
basic<br />
inventory<br />
Arpa<br />
Piemonte<br />
South Tyrol<br />
Emilia<br />
Romagna<br />
France Catalonia UK<br />
Geomorphologic map large scale variable scales 1:10,000 1:5,000 1:10,000 1:10,000 variable<br />
Geotechnical map 1:5,000-1:50,000 1:200,000<br />
Engineering geological map 1:5,000 (l<strong>and</strong>slides) 1:250,000<br />
Level of attention<br />
Inventory map 1:25,000 to 1:50,000<br />
Multi-temporal inventory map<br />
1:5,000 to 1:2,000<br />
<strong>and</strong> 1:25,000 to<br />
1:50,000<br />
1:10,000-<br />
1:25,000<br />
1:10,000-1:50,000<br />
(M1), 1:2,000-<br />
1:10,000 (M2),<br />
1:5,000-1:2,000 or<br />
bigger (M3)<br />
Municipal<br />
>1:50,000 1:10,000 1:10,000 1:25,000-<br />
1:100,000 1:10,000 1:25,000<br />
-<br />
1:10,000<br />
Map of phenomena<br />
1:50,000 <strong>and</strong> bigger<br />
1:10,000-1:50,000<br />
(M1), 1:2,000-<br />
1:10,000 (M2),<br />
1:5,000-1:2,000 or<br />
bigger (M3)<br />
1:10,000<br />
1:5,000 or<br />
1:10,000<br />
variable<br />
scales<br />
1:25,000<br />
<strong>and</strong> bigger<br />
1:10,000-<br />
1:50,000<br />
suscepti-bility<br />
Map of area of activity 1:25,000 1:10,000<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility<br />
map, danger map<br />
(Gefahrenhinweiskarte)<br />
1:200,000 (K, regional),<br />
1:50,000 (St., local)<br />
1:25,000 1:10,000-1:50,000 1:250,000 1:10,000 yes<br />
1:25,000<br />
(2000)<br />
1:5,000<br />
(2009)<br />
1:10,000-<br />
1:50,000<br />
1:25,000 1:50,000<br />
<strong>hazard</strong> index map K, Bleiberg: 1:10,000<br />
Hazard map 1:2,000-1:10,000 1:25,000<br />
1:10,000-<br />
1:25,000<br />
1:25,000<br />
<strong>hazard</strong><br />
Detailed Study (Detailstudie)<br />
Hazard zone map<br />
(Gefahrenzonenkarte)<br />
not smaller than<br />
1:50,000, usually<br />
1:2,000 to 1:5,000<br />
1:5,000-1:2,000 or<br />
more<br />
1:10,000<br />
1:5,000;<br />
1:10,000<br />
1:5,000 -<br />
1:1,000<br />
Hazard zone map of the<br />
development plan<br />
1:10,000<br />
1:5,000;<br />
1:10,000<br />
1:5,000<br />
Map of potential damage<br />
1:5,000;<br />
1:10,000<br />
risk<br />
Vulnerability map 1:250,000<br />
Risk zoning map, risk map<br />
1:5,000;<br />
1:10,000<br />
Fig. 1: Comparison of different maps <strong>and</strong> their scales<br />
Abb. 1: Vergleich unterschiedlicher Karten und deren Maßstab
Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
Comparison of in<strong>for</strong>mation collected <strong>for</strong> different inventories<br />
Characteristics Austria Ger CH SLO Italy F UK ES<br />
GBA K By CH SLO EmRo AP ST F UK Catalan<br />
Inventory x x x x x x x x x x<br />
national scale x x x x x x<br />
regional scale x x x x x<br />
study/ detailed scale x x x<br />
geometry (width, length...) x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
Basic in<strong>for</strong>mation where x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
when x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
what x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
why x x x x x x x x x<br />
who x x x x x x x x x<br />
reported when x x x x x x x<br />
L<strong>and</strong>slide conditions activity ( number of events...) x x x x x x x x x x x<br />
slope position x x x x x x x<br />
approx. original slope x x x<br />
positional accuracy x x x<br />
site description x x x x x x<br />
depth to bedrock x<br />
depth to basal failure plane x x<br />
slope aspect x x x x x x x x<br />
slope x x x x x x<br />
Geology in general x x x x x x x<br />
Geology, specified geologic unit x x x x x x x<br />
tectonic unit x x x x<br />
lithology x x x x x x x x<br />
stratigraphy x x x x<br />
bedding attitude x x x<br />
weathering x x x<br />
geotechnical properties (rock, debris) x x x x x x<br />
geotechnical parameters (shear,…) x x<br />
rock mass structure x x x x<br />
joints x x<br />
joint spacing x<br />
discontinuities x<br />
structural contributions x x<br />
L<strong>and</strong> cover x x x x<br />
L<strong>and</strong> use x x x x<br />
Hydrogeology x x x<br />
Relationship to rainfall x x<br />
Classification of mass movements (not specified) x x x x<br />
Classification type x x x x x x x x x x<br />
rate of movement x x x x x<br />
material x x x x x x<br />
water content x x x<br />
Causes x x x x x x x x x x<br />
Trigger x x x x x x<br />
Precursory signs (fissures,…) x x x<br />
Silent witnesses x x<br />
Rock fall: shadow angle x x x<br />
Rock fall: (geometric) slope gradient x x x<br />
Damage x x x x x x x x x x<br />
"Hazard" to infrastructure x x x x x<br />
Remedial measures x x x x x x x<br />
Costs of rem. Measures x x x<br />
Costs of investigation x<br />
Method used to gather info (field survey, aerial photo-interpretation,…) x x x x x x x x x<br />
Degree of precision of in<strong>for</strong>mation x x x x x x<br />
Certainty/ reliability of in<strong>for</strong>mation x<br />
Investigations, reports, documentation, references included x x x x x x x x<br />
Bibliography included x x x x x x<br />
Fig. 2: Comparison of characteristics <strong>and</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation collected <strong>for</strong> different inventories <strong>and</strong> maps<br />
Abb. 2: Vergleich von Charakteristiken und eingehende In<strong>for</strong>mationen für unterschiedliche Inventare und Karte<br />
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Hazard <strong>assessment</strong> <strong>and</strong> mapping of mass-movements in the EU<br />
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aimed to acquiring, elaborating, integrating <strong>and</strong><br />
disseminating the basic geological, pedological<br />
<strong>and</strong> geothematic in<strong>for</strong>mation concerning the<br />
whole of the territory in the suitable scales <strong>for</strong><br />
the l<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> urban planning. This project started<br />
in 2007. In the MPRGC, evidence, phenomena,<br />
susceptibility <strong>and</strong> natural <strong>hazard</strong>s of geological<br />
processes are represented. These processes are<br />
generated by external geodynamics (such as slope,<br />
torrent, snow, coastal <strong>and</strong> flood dynamics) <strong>and</strong><br />
internal (seismic) geodynamics. The in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
is displayed by different maps on each published<br />
sheet. The main map is presented on a scale of<br />
1:25,000, <strong>and</strong> includes l<strong>and</strong>slide, avalanche<br />
<strong>and</strong> flood <strong>hazard</strong>. Hazard level is qualitatively<br />
classified as high (red), medium (orange) <strong>and</strong> low<br />
(yellow). The methods used to analyze <strong>hazard</strong>s<br />
basically consist of geomorphologic, spatial <strong>and</strong><br />
statistical analysis.<br />
4.8 Slovenia<br />
Legislation, planning <strong>and</strong> prevention measures are<br />
not satisfying in the field of l<strong>and</strong>slides in Slovenia<br />
<strong>and</strong> the primary activities are still focused on<br />
remediation instead on the prevention measures.<br />
The updated Act on Spatial planning from<br />
2007, governing natural disasters also discusses<br />
problems with mass movements, but a common<br />
methodology <strong>and</strong> procedures to prevent geologyrelated<br />
natural disasters does not exist yet.<br />
At the moment <strong>for</strong> Slovenia, a<br />
“l<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility map” (scale 1:250,000)<br />
<strong>and</strong> a “debris-flow susceptibility map” (scale<br />
1:250,000) is elaborated by the Geological Survey<br />
of Slovenia. In addition to this, a probabilistic<br />
model of slope mass movement susceptibility <strong>for</strong><br />
the Bovec municipality in north-western Slovenia<br />
was developed based on the expert geo<strong>hazard</strong><br />
map at scale 1:25,000 <strong>and</strong> several other relevant<br />
influence factors.<br />
5. Conclusion<br />
As mentioned in the introduction of this article,<br />
the “state of the art in <strong>hazard</strong> mapping“ in the<br />
involved countries isn’t in balance. This fact was<br />
also confirmed inside the “Expert Hearing” in<br />
Bolzano.<br />
To solve this problem, in a first step the<br />
big variety of maps applied in the several regions<br />
was summarized in one table (see Fig. 1). This chart<br />
builds the basis <strong>for</strong> further actions concerning<br />
the creation of minimum requirements. It is<br />
structured into different levels <strong>and</strong> the associated<br />
type of maps. The levels lasting from “basic” (e.g.<br />
geomorphologic maps) over “inventories” (e.g.<br />
inventory map), “susceptibility” (e.g. susceptibility<br />
map) <strong>and</strong> “<strong>hazard</strong>” (e.g. <strong>hazard</strong> map) to “risk”<br />
(e.g. risk map).<br />
Furthermore, a matrix (see Fig. 2)<br />
with specified characteristics <strong>and</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
collected <strong>for</strong> different maps was created out<br />
of the great wealth of in<strong>for</strong>mation given at the<br />
hearing in Bolzano. In particular, this table should<br />
help to find accordance’s between the different<br />
approaches. All the characteristics used in any<br />
involved country (e.g. inventory) <strong>for</strong>m the basis<br />
<strong>for</strong> the definition of minimum requirements to<br />
“<strong>hazard</strong> mapping”.<br />
Finally, out of these two matrices a<br />
recommendation will be created <strong>and</strong>, based<br />
thereon, the final minimum requirements should<br />
be fixed in the next workshop on December 2010<br />
in Munich. The final report on the whole project<br />
will include a chapter with the decided minimum<br />
requirements to the creation of “Danger, Hazard<br />
<strong>and</strong> Risk maps”.<br />
Anschrift der Verfasser / Authors’ addresses:<br />
Karl Mayer<br />
Bavarian Environment Agency (LfU)<br />
(Office Munich)<br />
Lazarettstraße 67<br />
80636 Munich – GERMANY<br />
Bernhard Lochner<br />
alpS – Centre <strong>for</strong> Natural Hazard <strong>and</strong> Risk<br />
Management<br />
Grabenweg 3<br />
6020 Innsbruck - AUSTRIAText<br />
Literatur / References:<br />
CRUDEN, D.M. & VARNES, D.J. (1996): L<strong>and</strong>slide types <strong>and</strong> processes.<br />
In A. Keith Turner & Robert L. Schuster (eds), L<strong>and</strong>slide investigation <strong>and</strong><br />
mitigation: 36-75. Transportation Research Board, special report 247.<br />
Washington: National Academy Press.<br />
FELGENTREFF, C. & GLADE, T. (Hrsg.) (2008): Naturrisiken und<br />
Sozialkatastrophen. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag, Heidelberg, 454 S.<br />
KOMAC, M. (2005): Probabilistic model of slope mass movement<br />
susceptibility - a case study of Bovec municipality, Slovenia. Geologija,<br />
48/2, 311-340.<br />
KOMAC, M. & RIBIČIČ, M. (2006): L<strong>and</strong>slide susceptibility map of<br />
Slovenia at scale 1:250.000. Geologija, 49/2, 295-309.<br />
KOMAC, M., KUMELJ, Š. & RIBIČIČ, M. (2009): Debris-flow susceptibility<br />
model of Slovenia at scale 1: 250,000. Slovenia. Geologija, 52/1, 87-104.<br />
MAYER, K. & POSCHINGER, A. von (2005): Final Report <strong>and</strong> Guidelines:<br />
Mitigation of Hydro-Geological Risk in <strong>Alpine</strong> Catchments, “CatchRisk”.<br />
Work Package 2: L<strong>and</strong>slide <strong>hazard</strong> <strong>assessment</strong> (Rockfall modelling).<br />
Program Interreg IIIb – <strong>Alpine</strong> Space.<br />
MAYER, K., Patula, S., Krapp, M., Leppig, B., Thom, P., Poschinger, A. von<br />
(2010): Danger Map <strong>for</strong> the Bavarian Alps. Z. dt. Ges. Geowiss., 161/2, p.<br />
119-128, 10 figs. Stuttgart, June 2010<br />
RAETZO, H., LATELTIN, O., TRIPET, J.P., BOLLINGER, D. (2002): Hazard<br />
<strong>assessment</strong> in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> – codes of practice <strong>for</strong> mass movements. Bull. of<br />
Engineering Geology <strong>and</strong> the Environment 61(3): 263-268.<br />
RIBIČIČ, M., KOMAC, M., MIKOŠ, M., FAJFAR, D., RAVNIK, D.,<br />
GVOZDANOVIČ, T., KOMEL, P., MIKLAVČIČ, L. & KOSMATIN FRAS, M.<br />
(2006): Novelacija in nadgradnja in<strong>for</strong>macijskega sistema o zemeljskih<br />
plazovih in vključitev v bazo GIS_UJME : končno poročilo. Ljubljana:<br />
Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo (in Slovene).
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AdaptAlp<br />
DI Maria Patek, MBA<br />
Bundesministerium für L<strong>and</strong>- und Forstwirtschaft,<br />
Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft<br />
Abteilung IV/5<br />
Marxergasse 3<br />
1030 Wien<br />
Tel.: 01/711 00 - 7334<br />
Fax: 01/71100 - 7399<br />
E-Mail: die.wildbach@lebensministerium.at