Seamless prediction

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Diagnostic potential predictability in EC-Earth 10 yr
What to expect from <strong>prediction</strong>s? • Prognostic potential predictability: ensemble spread in relation to total variance PPP = 1− 1 N( M −1) i= 1 2 • With X ij is the i th member of j th ensemble, N is number ensembles, M number of ensemble members N ∑ j= 1 M ∑ σ [ X ij ( t) − X j ( t)] 2 Griffies and Bryan 1997, Collins et al, Pohlmann et al
Page 1 and 2: Seamless prediction Prediction from
Page 3 and 4: Seamless prediction
Page 5 and 6: 3 pillars of 21st century scientifi
Page 7 and 8: Natural variability, chaotic atmosp
Page 9 and 10: Predicting natural variability: mor
Page 11 and 12: Monthly: Soil moisture, Sea Surface
Page 13 and 14: Seasonal to interannual: Coupled oc
Page 15 and 16: Decadal: Atlantic Multidecadal Osci
Page 17 and 18: Multi-decadal: anthropogenically fo
Page 19 and 20: Predictability beyond the Lorentz-l
Page 21: What to expect from predictions?
Page 25 and 26: Prognostic Potential predictability
Page 27 and 28: Making predictions
Page 29 and 30: Statistical: Precipipation in Cura
Page 31 and 32: Prediction experiment Initialize at
Page 33 and 34: Initialization, in particular the o
Page 35 and 36: Perturbing the ensemble " Perturbat
Page 37 and 38: Measures of skill
Page 39 and 40: Some simple deterministic measures
Page 41 and 42: Skill dynamical seasonal prediction
Page 43 and 44: Probabilistic scores Reliability di
Page 45 and 46: Probabilistic score Relative Operat
Page 47 and 48: ROC score, 3 month lead time Temper
Page 49 and 50: Always use a 0-hypothesis • Verif
Page 51 and 52: The model and bias
Page 53: Low (T159) and high resolution (T79
Page 58: EC-Earth: precipitation and bias
Page 61 and 62: EC-Earth: the North Atlantic Oscill
Page 63 and 64: EC-Earth: global mean temperature E
Page 66 and 67: Seasonal predictions
Page 68 and 69: Seasonal predictions: ENSO (2-4 mon
Page 70 and 71: Seasonal forecast ENSO
Page 72 and 73:
Seasonal predictions: tropical cycl
Page 74 and 75:
Decadal predictions in EC-Earth: gl
Page 76 and 77:
Verification multi-model EU-ENSEMBL
Page 78 and 79:
Verification multi-model decadal pr
Page 80 and 81:
Skill initialized predictions at mu
Page 82 and 83:
Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Os
Page 84 and 85:
Final remarks Predictability beyond
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