PRESS RELEASE 18 FEBRUARY 2011 ABN AMRO ... - Virtual Metals

The VM Group
101 Ashmill Street, London - NW1 6RA, United Kingdom
Tel + 44 (0) 20 7569 5930
Web: http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk
Email: info@virtualmetals.co.uk
PRESS RELEASE
UNDER STRICT EMBARGO – NOT FOR PUBLICATION OR COMMENT BEFORE 12:00 LONDON TIME
FRIDAY 18 FEBRUARY
18 FEBRUARY 2011
ABN AMRO/VM Group: Agricommodities Monthly – COFFEE QUARTERLY
VM Group in partnership with ABN AMRO today publishes the February 2010 edition of The
Agricommodities Monthly, which reports on and analyses key developments in the global markets
for agricommodities.
The February issue is a Coffee Quarterly. The global coffee supply-demand balance will remain
relatively tight during the 2010-2011 season, leaving fairly low stocks of arabica as we go into the
2011-2012 season, which will see a lower arabica production out of Brazil. We see a surplus of
6.54m 60-kg bags for arabica in 2010-2011, and a surplus of 5.18m bags of robusta. Global coffee
demand growth remains subdued in our view, at around 1%/year. Arabica coffee futures reached
the highest in 14 years in February and robusta futures have risen to their highest in more than two
years. We see scope for futures’ prices remaining high in both.
In addition, the report each month carries a commodity-related feature. In February we look at
Malaysia’s ambitions to raise its crude palm oil production.
The Agricommodities Monthly is free of charge and open-access and is available directly from the
VM Group at www.vmgroup.co.uk. If you have not received a copy of this report, or should you require
further details or commentary, please contact:
Clare Hayter, VM Group, +44 20 7569 5930, info@virtualmetals.co.uk

Page 2 of 2
Coffee supply & demand balance, million 60 kg bags
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011
Arabica Robusta Arabica Robusta Arabica Robusta
South America 52.15 12.82 48.12 13.48 54.63 14.00
Central America & Caribbean 17.73 0.23 17.50 0.23 17.83 0.03
Africa 8.85 7.65 8.55 7.75 8.39 7.85
Asia 3.85 33.65 4.36 31.95 4.56 33.65
Rest of world 0.45 0.36 0.45 0.36 0.45 0.36
Total Production 83.03 54.71 78.98 53.77 85.86 55.89
Demand 78.55 49.15 79.02 49.68 79.32 50.71
Balance 4.48 5.56 -0.04 4.09 6.54 5.18
Note: italics denote revisions to previous estimates
Million 100 60kg bags
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
80
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
60
40
20
0
Arabica
Robusta
RoW South America C. America and Caribbean Africa Asia
Source: ABN AMRO, VM Group
Company number 3404 796 Registered in England and Wales
Registered Office: 1 Bickenhall Mansions, Bickenhall Street, London, W1U 6BP
Directors: BR Aitken, GP Briggs, JF Cross, PM Curtis, AA McGregor, E Ratshikhopha