Session Handout - Creative Learning Exchange

Panarchy: A Metaphor for 

Conveying Systems Concepts 

and Improving Systems 

Thinking Skills 

Richard Plate 

School of Natural Resources and 

Environment 

University of Florida

Richmond’s Seven Thinking Skills 

♦ Dynamic Thinking 

♦ Systems-as-Cause Thinking 

♦ Forest Thinking 

♦ Operational Thinking 

♦ Closed-Loop Thinking 

♦ Quantitative Thinking 

♦ Scientific Thinking

Dynamic Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Static Thinking 

– Focus on events over patterns 

– Do not consider that things might get worse 

before they get better 

♦ Focus on behavior over time 

♦ Events result from “the continuous build-up 

of pressures within a system”

Systems-as-Cause Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Systems-as-Effect Thinking 

– View behavior as driven by external forces 

– Predict and prepare mentality 

♦ Ask the question, “In what ways are we 

‘doing it to ourselves?’” 

♦ Structure system so that unexpected 

perturbations are manageable

Forest Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Tree-by-Tree Thinking 

– Heavy in details 

– Focus on numerical accuracy 

♦ View from 10,000 meters 

♦ Enables you to connect different parts of the 

forest

Operational Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Factors thinking 

– “Critical Success Factors” 

– “Key Drivers” 

♦ How is performance being generated? 

♦ Concentrating on causality

Closed-Loop Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Straight-Line Thinking 

– Causality runs only one way 

– Each factor is independent of other factors 

♦ Factors affect each other 

♦ Accounts for feedback within the system

Quantitative Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Measurement Thinking 

– Knowledge implies precise measurement 

– Attempt to get beyond uncertainty 

♦ Applying rough numbers to soft variables 

(e.g., level of motivation, morale, etc.) 

♦ Specifying numerical values for graphing 

relationships

Scientific Thinking 

♦ Alternative to Proving-Truth Thinking 

– Focus on proving models true 

– Over-investment in models 

♦ “Science proceeds by discarding falsehoods, 

not by proving truth.” 

♦ Willingness to change models/policies to fit 

the situation

Panarchy 

♦ Field of Natural Resource Management: Successes 

that lead to failure 

♦ Panarchy is suggested as a metaphor for 

understanding system dynamics. 

♦ Caricatures of Nature 

Inherently stable—moving naturally toward a balanced 

equilibrium 

Inherently unstable—slipping inevitably toward total 

disorder (entropy) 

♦ Pan (Image of unpredictable change) + Hierarchy

Caricatures of Nature: A Closer Look 

♦ Nature Flat 

♦ Nature Balanced 

♦ Nature Anarchic 

♦ Nature Resilient 

♦ Nature Evolving 

Gunderson and Holling 2002

Key Concepts 

♦ Change follows a general pattern 

♦ Nonlinear behavior are the result of 

interactions between large- and small-scale 

processes 


Example: Spruce-Fir Forests 

♦ Release—Forest fire or pest outbreak 

♦ Reorganization—soil processes make 

nutrients available for exploitation 

♦ Growth and Exploitation—early stages of 

ecological succession 

♦ Conservation—“climax” community 

Gunderson and 

Holling 2002

Other Examples 

♦ Physical—pile of sand 

♦ Historical—rise and fall of governments 

and/or civilizations 

♦ Literary—progression of characters 

♦ Political—elections as a way to manage 

release peacefully

Adaptive Cycle—Social Context 


Scale—Natural Context 


Scale—Social Context 


Adaptive Cycle across Scale 


Benefits of Using the Panarchy 

Metaphor for Mental Models 

♦ Dynamic Thinking: 

– events are viewed as part of an ongoing cycle of growth 

and change 

– continuous build-up and release of pressure within a 

system 

♦ Systems-as-Cause Thinking: 

– system behavior caused by interactions between fast 

and slow variables 

– system creates conditions for its own release period 

♦ Forest Thinking: 

– temporal scales extended to view entire cycles 

– look at more than one variable and more than one scale

Benefits of Using the Panarchy 

Metaphor for Mental Models 

♦ Closed-Loop Thinking: 

– feedbacks become critical to understanding 

system behavior 

– Small-scale processes feedback and dominate 

during back-loop periods of release. 

♦ Scientific Thinking: 

– models and policies must change to fit the 

situation 

– Constantly reassess to see where the 

model/policy does not fit the system

Sample Assignments 

♦ Learning Panarchy 

– Evolution of a musical artist/group 

♦ Using Panarchy 

– Evolution of a political movement (Civil Rights, 

Women’s Rights, Environmental) 

♦ Key Tasks and Questions 

– Identify and describe the stages of at least two adaptive 

cycles for your system. 

– Identify slow processes vs. fast processes and describe 

key interactions 

– What have occurred from one cycle to the next? 

– What has remained constant from cycle to cycle?

Closing Comments 

♦ “As you gain ability and confidence [with systems 

thinking skills], you’ll find that you’ll begin to see 

the world in new, more dynamic and holistic 

ways—which is really the most powerful 

advantage that systems thinking offers” 

(Richmond 2000). 

♦ “The challenge…is to conserve the ability to 

adapt to change, to be able to respond in a flexible 

way to uncertainty and surprises. And even to 

create the kind of surprises that open opportunity” 

(Gunderson and Holling 2002).

The End 

Acknowledgements 

♦ Creative Learning Exchange 

♦ University of Florida Student Government

Session Handout - Creative Learning Exchange

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