Industry Trends - Mitchell International
Industry Trends - Mitchell International
Industry Trends - Mitchell International
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Volume Nine Number Two<br />
Q2 2009<br />
Published by <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
Report<br />
In this issue:<br />
Quarterly Feature:<br />
A Deeper Dive<br />
into the Latest<br />
Crash Parts Index<br />
Analysis Yields<br />
Unexpected<br />
Results<br />
Paint & Materials Feature:<br />
Understanding <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC: Sorting<br />
Out the Myths & Learning the Facts<br />
The Economy & Short-Term<br />
Energy Outlook<br />
Current Events in the Collision<br />
<strong>Industry</strong><br />
Motor Vehicle Markets<br />
New Vehicle Sales<br />
New Vehicle Sales by Company<br />
10 Best Selling Cars & Trucks<br />
Used Vehicle Sales—<br />
Current Monthly Index<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> Data<br />
Average Appraisal Values<br />
Collision Losses<br />
Comprehensive Losses<br />
Third-Party Auto Property Damage<br />
Supplements<br />
Parts Analysis<br />
Paint & Materials<br />
Labor Analysis<br />
Adjustments<br />
Facts-at-a-Glance:<br />
Automobile Technology Firsts<br />
Total Loss<br />
Canadian Collision Summary<br />
Casualty Statistics<br />
About <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> News Releases<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Brand Advertising at Work
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
Report<br />
Volume Nine Number Two<br />
Q2 2009<br />
Published by <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
Table of Contents<br />
3 Quarterly Feature : A Deeper Dive into the Latest Crash Parts Index<br />
Analysis Yields Unexpected Results<br />
7 The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook<br />
9 Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong><br />
14 Motor Vehicle Markets<br />
New Vehicle Sales<br />
Used Vehicle Sales<br />
16 <strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data<br />
Average Appraisal Values<br />
Collision Losses<br />
Automobile Milestones: Facts At-A-Glance<br />
Comprehensive Losses<br />
Third-Party Auto Property Damage<br />
Supplements<br />
Parts Analysis<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Crash Parts Index<br />
21 Paint & Materials Feature : Understanding <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC: Sorting Out the<br />
Myths & Learning the Facts<br />
Paint & Materials<br />
Labor Analysis<br />
Adjustments<br />
24 Total Loss<br />
25 Canadian Collision Summary<br />
Canada Appraisal Severity<br />
Canada Parts Utilization<br />
Vehicle Age and ACV’s<br />
29 Collision Casualty Statistics<br />
30 About <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
News Releases Q1-2009<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Brand Advertising at Work<br />
The <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report is a quarterly snapshot<br />
of the auto physical damage collision and casualty<br />
industries. Just inside—the economy, industry<br />
highlights, plus illuminating statistics and measures,<br />
and more. Stay informed on ongoing and emerging<br />
trends impacting the industry, and you, with the<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report!<br />
Questions or comments about the <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
Report may be directed to:<br />
Greg Horn<br />
Editor in Chief, Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong> Relations<br />
greg.horn@mitchell.com<br />
For distribution and circulation questions, or requests<br />
for back issues, please contact:<br />
Regina Merkey<br />
Managing Editor, Sr. Marketing Communications<br />
Specialist<br />
Distribution and Circulation<br />
(858) 368-7790<br />
e-mail: regina.merkey@mitchell.com<br />
For data analytics, please contact:<br />
Gail Sloan<br />
Sr. Director of Business Development and Licensing<br />
(858) 368-7869<br />
e-mail: gail.sloan@mitchell.com<br />
Additional Contributors:<br />
Manheim analytics provided by Thomas C. Webb,<br />
Chief Economist at Manheim Auctions. Webb has been<br />
associated with the used vehicle market for more than<br />
26 years, including serving as Senior Manager at a<br />
professional services firm’s global automotive practice,<br />
and Chief Economist for one of the industry’s largest<br />
national trade organizations.<br />
The <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report is published by <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
<strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
The information contained in this publication was<br />
obtained from sources deemed reliable. However,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc. cannot guarantee the<br />
accuracy or completeness of the information provided.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> is a leading provider of information, workflow, and performance management solutions to the<br />
property and casualty insurance claims, collision repair, and workers’ compensation industries. <strong>Mitchell</strong> facilitates millions of<br />
electronic transactions between more than 25,000 business partners each month to enhance their productivity, profitability,<br />
and customer satisfaction levels. For more information on <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, please visit our website at www.mitchell.com.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 2
Quarterly Feature<br />
A Deeper Dive into the Latest<br />
Crash Parts Index Analysis Yields<br />
Unexpected Results<br />
BY GREG HORN<br />
Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong> Relations, <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
In the last issue of the <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report (Q1-2009), we introduced the first series of<br />
findings from our ongoing <strong>Mitchell</strong> Crash Parts Index analysis. This new feature highlights<br />
data from this continued analysis, which organizes crash parts data into a general “collision<br />
parts market basket” and tracks changes in the average prices of these parts over time.<br />
As we continue to monitor the data, we expect to see fluctuations before establishing a<br />
finalized Crash Parts Index, which we will release in a subsequent issue of the <strong>Industry</strong><br />
<strong>Trends</strong> Report.<br />
The first installment of<br />
the Crash Parts Index<br />
prompted a flood of<br />
questions and requests<br />
from readers for further<br />
data queries. In this issue,<br />
we will respond by digging<br />
a bit deeper and looking<br />
at several of the most<br />
popular cars in the U.S.<br />
and their corresponding<br />
collision parts to provide<br />
a more detailed look at<br />
the parts prices for these<br />
top-selling vehicles. By<br />
The first installment prompted a<br />
flood of requests from readers for<br />
further data queries. In this issue,<br />
we will respond by digging a bit<br />
deeper and looking at several of<br />
the most popular cars in the U.S.<br />
and their corresponding collision<br />
parts to provide a more detailed<br />
look at the parts prices for these<br />
top-selling vehicles.<br />
limiting the index to the three most popular vehicles, we hope to provide our readers with<br />
the insight they are looking for on inflationary trends for the cars most often insured and<br />
therefore repaired in today’s insurance and collision repair market.<br />
The methodology used in this installment mirrors the previous <strong>Mitchell</strong> Crash Parts Index<br />
analysis—we pulled data from 2003 through 2008 to create weighted average prices for<br />
these parts in aggregate, setting the base year at 2003 and equal to 100. This approach<br />
allows us to compare inflationary trends by part type and vehicle nameplate country of<br />
origin. It is important to remember that the values represented are based on 100 percent<br />
for the base year and related percentages, NOT the actual prices of the parts.<br />
The vehicles used in this comparison were the top-selling models during the 2003 to<br />
2008 time period by country of origin according to Ward’s AutoInfoBank. Domestically,<br />
the Chevrolet Malibu was the top-selling vehicle, while in Japan the Toyota Camry was a<br />
heavy hitter, and the Volkswagen Jetta was a major player from Europe during this time<br />
period. The data for 2003 to 2008 represents various model years and therefore different<br />
model generations (or services as <strong>Mitchell</strong> refers to them). For example, the data covers<br />
the first generation Malibu initially sold in 1997 and continues through 2003 (combined with<br />
data for identically styled fleet-only sales of the Chevrolet Classic for 2004-2006) as well<br />
as the second-generation model, sold during the 2004 through 2008 model years. Using<br />
this model-specific “market basket” subset provides insight into overall price actions by<br />
manufacturer, which, keep in mind, we will continue to monitor to produce a final version of<br />
the <strong>Mitchell</strong> Crash Parts Index.<br />
About the author…<br />
Greg Horn<br />
Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong> Relations,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
Greg Horn joined <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
<strong>International</strong> in September of<br />
2006 as Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong><br />
Relations. In this role, Greg assists<br />
the <strong>Mitchell</strong> sales force in providing<br />
custom tailored business solutions to<br />
the auto collision industry.<br />
He provides guidance to <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s<br />
Product Management and Business<br />
Analytics teams, playing an important<br />
role in shaping <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s solution<br />
portfolio to ensure that it meets<br />
the evolving needs of current and<br />
future clients. Greg also presents<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Updates at<br />
conferences across the country.<br />
Prior to joining <strong>Mitchell</strong>, Greg served<br />
as Vice President of Material Damage<br />
Claims at GMAC Insurance, where<br />
he was responsible for all aspects of<br />
the physical damage claims process<br />
and the implementation of a unique<br />
vehicle replacement program along<br />
with serving on the GM Safety<br />
Committee. Prior to GMAC, Greg<br />
served as Director of Material<br />
Damage Processes for National<br />
Grange Mutual in Keene, NH.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 3
Quarterly Feature : A Deeper Dive into the Latest Crash Parts Index Analysis (con’t.)<br />
The Data Findings:<br />
Looking at all collision parts for the top three selling vehicles in this instance (Chevrolet<br />
Malibu, Toyota Camry, and Volkswagen Jetta), reveals an unexpected piece of information—<br />
today’s composite price market basket is actually lower than it was in 2003 (See Fig. 1).<br />
This finding is contrary to the prior installment of the <strong>Mitchell</strong> Crash Parts Index Analysis<br />
(“Top Five Parts Across All Vehicles”) when we looked at hoods and fenders only (See<br />
Fig. 5). The Top 5 Index showed an increase in the top five parts for all vehicles in our repair<br />
estimate database from 2003 to 2008 (See Fig. 2).<br />
To understand this difference, we need to answer a few questions:<br />
1) Are the top three vehicles more likely to have aftermarket or used parts<br />
more readily available because of their popularity and long vehicle<br />
generation cycle,<br />
2) Which part type (OEM, aftermarket, recycled/used or remanufactured)<br />
lowers the price index, and<br />
3) Does selecting more used or aftermarket parts lower of the average market<br />
price for these parts?<br />
Fig. 1 – Top 3 Vehicles, All Parts<br />
110<br />
100<br />
100.00<br />
98.28 98.23 97.47<br />
91.09<br />
90<br />
89.41<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Fig. 2 – All Vehicles, Top 5 Parts<br />
120<br />
119.04<br />
115<br />
115.43<br />
111.39<br />
110<br />
107.08<br />
105<br />
101.96<br />
100.00<br />
100<br />
Looking at all collision<br />
parts for the top three<br />
selling vehicles in this<br />
instance (Chevrolet<br />
Malibu, Toyota Camry,<br />
and Volkswagen Jetta),<br />
reveals an unexpected<br />
piece of information—<br />
today’s composite<br />
price market basket is<br />
actually lower than it<br />
was in 2003 (see Fig. 1).<br />
95<br />
90<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 4
Quarterly Feature : A Deeper Dive into the Latest Crash Parts Index Analysis (con’t.)<br />
If we split all parts in the parts index out by vehicle type, each vehicle model decreases in<br />
average price since 2003 (See Fig. 3).<br />
Fig. 3 – Top 3 Vehicles All Collision Parts Index<br />
115<br />
JETTA<br />
105<br />
95<br />
100.00<br />
97.23<br />
CAMRY<br />
MALIBU<br />
85<br />
88.75<br />
85.40<br />
75<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
If we split out the same data pull by part type, aftermarket and remanufactured indexed<br />
parts actually increase, while new OEM and recycled/used parts decrease significantly in<br />
the price index (See Fig. 4).<br />
Fig. 4 – Top 3 Vehicles All Parts Index by Part Type<br />
120<br />
110<br />
114.97<br />
112.66<br />
REMANUFACTURED<br />
AFTERMARKET<br />
100<br />
100.00<br />
OEM<br />
RECYCLED<br />
90<br />
87.09<br />
80<br />
70<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
75.73<br />
Although you might not think about it, these charts indicate that decreasing new OEM<br />
prices and recycled/used prices are actually driving the overall decrease in the parts price.<br />
So, what’s the link? Pricing schemes.<br />
The relationship between new and used parts trends is affected by the standard practice<br />
of pricing used collision parts at a percentage of new OEM. The aftermarket parts index,<br />
however, has increased despite a fairly steady exchange rate with the Taiwan Dollar,<br />
meaning that foreign exchange variation is likely not responsible for the rising prices.<br />
Price increases accepted by U.S. aftermarket part sellers could be the reasons behind the<br />
increase, as could increased markups on the parts domestically. Remanufactured parts,<br />
often sold through the same suppliers as aftermarket parts, have a similar price trajectory.<br />
Drilling down even further into the data and splitting out the top sheet metal parts price<br />
shows that the Camry is the only vehicle in the mix that has shown an increase in the price<br />
index of top-selling sheet metal parts—hood and fenders (See Fig. 6). The Malibu’s hood<br />
The relationship<br />
between new and used<br />
parts trends is affected<br />
by the standard practice<br />
of pricing used collision<br />
parts at a percentage of<br />
new OEM.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 5
Quarterly Feature : A Deeper Dive into the Latest Crash Parts Index Analysis (con’t.)<br />
and fenders have dramatically decreased in the parts price index, indicating that price<br />
decreases for these parts are contributing to the Top 3 Vehicles All Parts Index decline.<br />
Additionally, the availability of used parts as well as the downward price adjustments to new<br />
OEM hoods and fenders since 2003 has lead to a lower overall part cost for the Malibu.<br />
Fig. 5 – Top 3 Vehicles, Fender and Hood Index<br />
115<br />
110<br />
108.91 108.24<br />
109.40<br />
105<br />
100<br />
95<br />
100.00<br />
97.26<br />
102.94<br />
90<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Fig. 6 – Top 3 Vehicles, Fender and Hood Index<br />
140<br />
136.04<br />
JETTA<br />
125<br />
CAMRY<br />
110<br />
95<br />
100.00<br />
96.03<br />
MALIBU<br />
80<br />
65<br />
66.55<br />
50<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
What Does This All Mean?<br />
In this case, the above indexes illustrate that while the Top 5 Collision Parts Price Index is<br />
increasing, segmenting the data by top vehicles can result in the unexpected and divergent<br />
conclusion. Specifically examining the top-selling vehicles by country actually allowed us<br />
to see the part price decreases for that market basket since 2003. Isolating the parts price<br />
index according to these top vehicles by part type helps us understand where pricing trends<br />
are going and how part type pricing is interrelated for vehicles that are commonly insured<br />
and repaired.<br />
Although it might not be something you are used to doing—whether it’s because it seems<br />
daunting or tedious—as you can see, looking at the results of data exploration can really<br />
help you stay on top of trends affecting the collision repair industry.<br />
Isolating the parts price<br />
index according to these<br />
top vehicles by part type<br />
helps us understand<br />
where pricing trends are<br />
going and how part type<br />
pricing is interrelated<br />
for vehicles that are<br />
commonly insured and<br />
repaired.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 6
The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook<br />
According to a statement released on April 8, 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee<br />
decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent (.25%). It is<br />
expected that the federal funds rate will likely remain exceptionally low for an extended period<br />
in order to try to continue to foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output as<br />
the economy continues to contract.<br />
Labor market conditions continue to deteriorate, and private payroll employment dropped<br />
considerably over the last several months. Employment losses remained widespread across<br />
industries, with the notable exception of health care. The civilian unemployment rate climbed<br />
1/2 percentage point in February, to 8.1 percent. The four-week moving average of initial<br />
claims for unemployment insurance continued to move up through early March, and the level<br />
of insured unemployed rose further.<br />
Industrial production fell in January and February, with cutbacks again widespread and<br />
capacity utilization in manufacturing declining to a very low level. Although production of light<br />
motor vehicles turned up in February, it remained well below the pace of the fourth quarter as<br />
manufacturers responded to the significant deterioration in demand over the past few months.<br />
The output of high-tech products declined as production of computers and semiconductors<br />
extended the sharp declines that began in the fourth quarter of 2008.<br />
Real consumer spending held steady, on balance, in the first two months of this year after<br />
having fallen sharply over the second half of last year. Real spending on goods excluding<br />
motor vehicles was estimated to have edged up, on balance, in January and February. In<br />
contrast, real outlays on motor vehicles contracted further in February after a decline in<br />
January. The financial strain on households intensified over the previous several months; by<br />
the end of the fourth quarter, household net worth for the first time since 1995 had fallen to<br />
less than five times disposable income, and substantial declines in equity and house prices<br />
continued early this year.<br />
Housing activity continued to be subdued. Single-family starts ticked up in February, and<br />
adjusted permit issuance in this sector moved up to a level slightly above starts. Multifamily<br />
starts jumped in February from the very low level in January, and the level of multifamily starts<br />
was close to where it had been at the end of the third quarter of 2008. Housing demand<br />
remained very weak, however. Although the stock of unsold new single-family homes fell in<br />
January to its lowest level since 2003, inventories continued to move up relative to the slow<br />
pace of sales. Sales of existing single-family homes fell in January, reversing the uptick seen<br />
in December. Over the previous 12 months, the pace of existing home sales declined much<br />
less than that of new home sales, reflecting in part increases in foreclosure-related and other<br />
distressed sales. The weakness in home sales persisted despite historically low mortgage<br />
rates for borrowers eligible for conforming loans. After having fallen significantly late last year,<br />
rates for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fluctuated in a relatively narrow range<br />
between January and March. In contrast, the market for nonconforming loans remained<br />
severely impaired. House prices continued to decline.<br />
Bank credit continued to decline in January and February, and commercial and industrial<br />
(C&I) loans decreased over these months. Commercial real estate loans outstanding also<br />
declined over the first part of 2009. In contrast, consumer loans on banks’ books jumped over<br />
the first two months of the year because of sizable increases at a few banks that purchased<br />
loans from their affiliated finance companies. In addition, some banks brought consumer<br />
loans that had previously been securitized back onto their books. After 12 consecutive months<br />
of contraction, residential mortgage loans on banks’ books increased in February, likely a<br />
result of the pickup in refinancing activity. In contrast, the rise in home equity loans slowed<br />
noticeably in January and February.<br />
The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed in December and January, as a steep fall<br />
in imports more than offset a decline in exports. All major categories of exports decreased,<br />
especially sales of industrial supplies, machinery, and automotive products. All major<br />
categories of imports decreased as well, with large declines in imports of oil, automotive<br />
Information on the economy and short-term energy outlook was obtained from the US Federal Reserve Board,<br />
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration<br />
(EIA). For more information, or to view original source materials, visit: www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC or<br />
www.eia.doe.gov<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 7
The Economy & Short-Term Energy Outlook (con't.)<br />
products, and industrial supplies. The drop in the value of oil imports reflected a lower price.<br />
Imports of automotive products declined as automakers made significant production cutbacks<br />
throughout North America.<br />
The global economic contraction continues to depress energy demand. In the United<br />
States, overall consumer prices increased in January and February, led by an increase in<br />
energy prices, after posting sizable declines late last year. Excluding the categories of food<br />
and energy, consumer prices edged higher in January and February after three months of<br />
no change.<br />
The annual price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged $100 per barrel<br />
in 2008. The global economic slowdown is projected to cut these prices by more than half, to<br />
average $42 per barrel in 2009 and $53 in 2010.<br />
Gasoline prices have been slowly increasing over the last two months while crude oil prices<br />
have stabilized and refiner margins have recovered from their recent near-historic lows. After<br />
averaging $1.69 per gallon in December 2008, the lowest monthly average since February<br />
2004, the retail gasoline price in February rose to $1.92 per gallon. Retail gasoline prices are<br />
projected to average $1.96 per gallon in 2009 and $2.18 per gallon in 2010.<br />
The U.S. economic downturn is the principal cause for the decline in domestic natural gas<br />
consumption, particularly in the industrial sector—where it is projected to fall by six percent<br />
in 2009—which in turn has led to lower natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot<br />
price is projected to decline from an average of $9.13 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2008 to<br />
about $4.70 per Mcf in 2009, but then increase in 2010 to an average of almost $5.90 per Mcf.<br />
Looking beyond the very near term, a number of market forces and policies now in<br />
place are expected to eventually lead to economic recovery. Notably, the low level of<br />
mortgage interest rates, reduced house prices, and the Administration’s new programs to<br />
encourage mortgage refinancing and mitigate foreclosures ultimately could bring about a<br />
lower cost of homeownership, a sustained increase in home sales, and a stabilization of<br />
house prices. The household saving rate, which had already risen considerably, is expected<br />
to eventually level out and cease to hold back consumption growth. Business inventories are<br />
expected come into line with even a low level of sales, and the pressure on production from<br />
inventory drawdowns should diminish. Fiscal and monetary policies are likely to contribute<br />
significantly to aggregate demand in coming quarters.<br />
To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Federal Open<br />
Market Committee will increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further<br />
by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities. This<br />
increase will bring its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year. The<br />
Committee will also increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to<br />
a total of up to $200 billion.<br />
Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee will purchase<br />
up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. Additionally, the<br />
Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate<br />
the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range<br />
of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets.<br />
Real GDP is expected to flatten out gradually over the second half of this year. It is then<br />
expected that it will expand slowly next year as the stresses in financial markets ease,<br />
the effects of fiscal stimulus take hold, inventory adjustments are worked through, and the<br />
correction in housing activity comes to an end.<br />
Little chance of a pickup in inflation is expected over the near term, as rising unemployment<br />
and falling capacity utilization hold down wages and prices and inflation expectations appear<br />
subdued. Inflation is likely to persist below desired levels, with a risk of deflation. Even without<br />
a continuation of outright price declines, falling expectations of inflation are expected to raise<br />
the real rate of interest and thus increase the burden of debt and further restrain the economy.<br />
Information on the economy and short-term energy outlook was obtained from the US Federal Reserve Board,<br />
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration<br />
(EIA). For more information, or to view original source materials, visit: www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC or<br />
www.eia.doe.gov<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 8
Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong><br />
Size Still Matters in Car Collisions, IIHS Says<br />
Minicars fare poorly in crash tests with midsize models<br />
Excerpted From: ABRN—April 2009<br />
ARLINGTON, Va. — Three front-to-front crash tests, each involving a microcar or minicar<br />
into a midsize model from the same manufacturer, show how extra vehicle size and<br />
weight enhance occupant protection in collisions. These Insurance Institute for Highway<br />
Safety (IIHS) tests are about the physics of car crashes, which dictate that very small cars<br />
generally can’t protect people in crashes as well as bigger, heavier models.<br />
“There are good reasons people buy minicars,” says Adrian Lund, IIHS president. “They’re<br />
more affordable and they use less gas. But the safety trade-offs are clear from our new<br />
tests. Equally clear are the implications when it comes to fuel economy. If automakers<br />
downsize cars so their fleets use less fuel, occupant safety will be compromised. However,<br />
there are ways to serve fuel economy and safety at the same time.”<br />
IIHS didn’t choose SUVs, pickup trucks or even large cars to pair with the micros and<br />
minis in the new crash tests. The choice of midsize cars reveals how much influence some<br />
extra size and weight can have on crash outcomes. IIHS chose pairs of 2009 models from<br />
Daimler, Honda, and Toyota because these automakers have micro and mini models that<br />
earn good frontal crashworthiness ratings, based on the IIHS offset test into a deformable<br />
barrier. Researchers rated performance in the 40 mph car-to-car tests, like the front-intobarrier<br />
tests, based on measured intrusion into the occupant compartment, forces recorded<br />
on the driver dummy, and movement of the dummy during the impact.<br />
The Honda Fit, Smart Fortwo, and Toyota Yaris are good performers in the IIHS frontal<br />
offset barrier test, but all three are poor performers in frontal collisions with midsize cars.<br />
These results reflect the laws of the physical universe, specifically principles related to force<br />
and distance. Click on collision for a link to the IIHS crash video and news release.<br />
Although the physics of frontal car crashes usually are described in terms of what happens<br />
to the vehicles, injuries depend on the forces that act on the occupants, and these forces<br />
are affected by two key physical factors. One is the weight of a crashing vehicle, which<br />
determines how much its velocity will change during impact. The greater the change,<br />
the greater the forces on the people inside and the higher the injury risk. The second<br />
factor is vehicle size, specifically the distance from the front of a vehicle to its occupant<br />
compartment. The longer this is, the lower the forces on the occupants.<br />
Size and weight affect injury likelihood in all kinds of crashes. In a collision involving two<br />
vehicles that differ in size and weight, the people in the smaller, lighter vehicle will be at a<br />
disadvantage. The bigger, heavier vehicle will push the smaller, lighter one backward during<br />
the impact. This means there will be less force on the occupants of the heavier vehicle and<br />
more on the people in the lighter vehicle. Greater force means greater risk, so the likelihood<br />
of injury goes up in the smaller, lighter vehicle.<br />
Crash statistics confirm this. The death rate in 1 to 3-year-old minicars in multiple-vehicle<br />
crashes during 2007 was almost twice as high as the rate in very large cars.<br />
“Though much safer than they were a few years ago, minicars as a group do a comparatively<br />
poor job of protecting people in crashes, simply because they’re smaller and lighter,” Lund<br />
says. “In collisions with bigger vehicles, the forces acting on the smaller ones are higher,<br />
and there’s less distance from the front of a small car to the occupant compartment to ‘ride<br />
down’ the impact. These and other factors increase injury likelihood.”<br />
The death rate per million 1-3-year-old minis in single-vehicle crashes during 2007 was<br />
35 compared with 11 per million for very large cars. Even in midsize cars, the death rate<br />
in single-vehicle crashes was 17 percent lower than in minicars. The lower death rate is<br />
because many objects that vehicles hit aren’t solid, and vehicles that are big and heavy<br />
have a better chance of moving or deforming the objects they strike. This dissipates some<br />
of the energy of the impact.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 9
Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong> (con't.)<br />
Some proponents of mini and small cars claim they’re as safe as bigger, heavier cars. But<br />
the claims don’t hold up. For example, there’s a claim that the addition of safety features<br />
to the smallest cars in recent years reduces injury risk, and this is true as far as it goes.<br />
Airbags, advanced belts, electronic stability control, and other features are helping. They’ve<br />
been added to cars of all sizes, though, so the smallest cars still don’t match the bigger cars<br />
in terms of occupant protection.<br />
Would hazards be reduced if all passenger vehicles were as small as the smallest<br />
ones? This would help in vehicle-to-vehicle crashes, but occupants of smaller cars are at<br />
increased risk in all kinds of crashes, not just ones with heavier vehicles. Almost half of<br />
all crash deaths in minicars occur in single-vehicle crashes, and these deaths wouldn’t be<br />
reduced if all cars became smaller and lighter.<br />
Another claim is that minicars are easier to maneuver, so their drivers can avoid crashes in<br />
the first place. Insurance claims experience says otherwise. The frequency of claims filed<br />
for crash damage is higher for mini 4-door cars than for midsize ones.<br />
Here’s how the pairs of cars fared in the IIHS new crash tests:<br />
• Honda Accord versus Fit: The structure of the Accord held up well in the crash test into<br />
the Fit, and all except one measure of injury likelihood recorded on the driver dummy’s<br />
head, neck, chest, and both legs were good. In contrast, a number of injury measures on<br />
the dummy in the Fit were less than good. Forces on the left lower leg and right upper leg<br />
were in the marginal range, while the measure on the right tibia was poor. These indicate<br />
a high risk of leg injury in a real-world crash of similar severity. In addition, the dummy’s<br />
head struck the steering wheel through the airbag. Intrusion into the Fit’s occupant<br />
compartment was extensive. Overall, this minicar’s rating is poor in the front-to-front<br />
crash, despite its good crashworthiness rating based on the IIHS frontal offset test into a<br />
deformable barrier. The Accord earns good ratings for performance in both tests.<br />
• Mercedes C class versus Smart Fortwo: After striking the front of the C class, the Smart<br />
went airborne and turned around 450 degrees. This contributed to excessive movement<br />
of the dummy during rebound — a dramatic indication of the Smart’s poor performance<br />
but not the only one. There was extensive intrusion into the space around the dummy<br />
from head to feet. The instrument panel moved up and toward the dummy. The steering<br />
wheel was displaced upward. Multiple measures of injury likelihood, including those on<br />
the dummy’s head, were poor, as were measures on both legs. “The Smart is the smallest<br />
car we tested, so it’s not surprising that its performance looked worse than the Fit’s. Still<br />
both fall into the poor category, and it’s hard to distinguish between poor and poorer,” Lund<br />
says. “In both the Smart and Fit, occupants would be subject to high injury risk in crashes<br />
with heavier cars.” In contrast, the C class held up well, with little to no intrusion into the<br />
occupant compartment. Nearly all measures of injury likelihood were in the good range.<br />
• Toyota Camry versus Yaris: There was far more intrusion into the occupant compartment<br />
of the Yaris than the Camry. The minicar’s door was largely torn away. The driver seats in<br />
both cars tipped forward, but only in the Yaris did the steering wheel move excessively.<br />
Similar contrasts characterize the measures of injury likelihood recorded on the dummies.<br />
The heads of both struck the cars’ steering wheels through the airbags, but only the head<br />
injury measure on the dummy in the Yaris rated poor. There was extensive force on the<br />
neck and right leg plus a deep gash at the right knee of the dummy in the minicar. Like the<br />
Smart and Fit, the Yaris earns an overall rating of poor in the car-to-car test. The Camry<br />
is acceptable.<br />
One reason people buy smaller cars is to conserve fuel. Gasoline prices skyrocketed last<br />
year, and there’s no telling what the price at the pump might be next week. Meanwhile,<br />
the gears are turning to hike federal fuel economy requirements to address environmental<br />
concerns. The conflict is that smaller vehicles use less fuel but do a relatively poor job of<br />
protecting people in crashes, so fuel conservation policies have tended to conflict with<br />
motor vehicle safety policies.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 10
Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong> (con't.)<br />
A problem with the current structure of fuel economy standards for cars is that the target<br />
of 27.5 miles per gallon is applied to an automaker’s whole fleet, no matter the mix of cars<br />
an individual automaker sells. This encourages manufacturers to sell more smaller, lighter<br />
cars to offset the fuel consumed by their bigger, heavier models. Sometimes automakers<br />
even sell the smaller — and less safe — cars at a loss to ensure compliance with fleetwide<br />
requirements.<br />
In response, the Obama administration announced it is boosting the fuel economy standard<br />
for cars, beginning with 2011 models, and instituting a size-based system to set fuel<br />
economy targets like the one already in effect for SUVs, pickups, and vans. This system<br />
will mandate lower fuel consumption as cars get smaller and lighter, thus removing the<br />
incentive for automakers to downsize their lightest vehicles to comply. It also could mean<br />
that technology currently used to enhance horsepower would go instead to reduce gas<br />
consumption — a direct safety benefit because less powerful cars have lower crash rates.<br />
Another way to conserve fuel, and serve safety at the same time, is to set lower speed<br />
limits. Going slower uses less fuel to cover the same distance. The national maximum 55<br />
mph speed limit, enacted in 1974, saved thousands of barrels of fuel per day. It also saved<br />
thousands of lives. Highway deaths declined about 20 percent the first year, from 55,511<br />
in 1973 to 46,402 in 1974. The National Research Council estimated that most of the<br />
reduction was due to the lower speed limit, and the rest was because of reduced travel.<br />
By 1983 the national maximum 55 mph limit still was saving 2,000 to 4,000 lives annually.<br />
“Fifty-five was adopted to save fuel, but it turned out to be one of the most dramatic<br />
safety successes in motor vehicle history,” Lund concludes. “The political will to reinstate it<br />
probably is lacking, but if policymakers want a win-win approach, lowering the speed limit<br />
is it. It saves fuel and lives at the same time.”<br />
Vehicle Obstacle Detection Systems Launching in 2009<br />
Excerpted From: CollisionWeek—March 2009<br />
While the promise of road-infrastructure based traffic management is still years away, some<br />
car manufacturers are moving ahead with autonomous radar-based obstacle detection<br />
systems increasing the safety of both drivers and pedestrians.<br />
According to ABI Research, Toyota is planning to add a millimeter-wave radar system to<br />
some of its car models in Japan in 2009. The driver is warned about potential side and<br />
front collisions and when a crash is imminent automatic braking, seat belt retraction and<br />
air bag deployments are initiated. In the US, a similar pre-collision system will be available<br />
on the 2010 Toyota Prius as an option. A similar feature was announced by Hyundai at<br />
CES. However, the current automotive slump will delay the adoption of active safety as a<br />
standard option across all brands.<br />
<br />
“Vehicle manufacturers are mainly interested in active safety as a new differentiator,” says<br />
ABI Research Practice Director Dominique Bonte. “However, avoiding accidents has a<br />
huge impact on traffic congestion levels, the reduction of which remains the primary goal<br />
of ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems).”<br />
To realize the benefits of integrated traffic management, ITS requires vehicle-to-vehicle<br />
and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication. While many successful tests based on the<br />
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) protocol are ongoing in Japan (ITS-Safety<br />
2010 project), Europe (ERTICO, CAR 2 CAR Communication Consortium) and the US<br />
(DoT’s IntelliDriveSM project), full rollout is not expected before 2015.<br />
In the meantime, ABI says several subcomponents of ITS are already in place. The Toll<br />
Collect consortium introduced GPS-based electronic road tolling in Germany in 2005<br />
with more than 650,000 on-board units installed in trucks so far. In 2008 ERTICO’s Road<br />
Charging Interoperability (RCI) project demonstrated seamless interoperable tolling<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 11
Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong> (con't.)<br />
technology in six EU countries. Automatic emergency calling is available with Onstar and<br />
Ford Sync in the US and will be mandatory in Europe by 2013 via the eCall project.<br />
ABI Research’s new “Intelligent Transportation Systems Market Overview” report is part of<br />
two ABI Research Services, Telematics and Location Based Services.<br />
Salvage Vehicle Legislation Sent to Kentucky Governor<br />
Excerpted From: CollisionWeek—March 2009<br />
The Kentucky House of Representatives last week sent a measure to the governor that will<br />
increase the damage allowable on a vehicle before it will require a salvage title.<br />
House Bill 309, approved 36-2 in the Senate on March 11, proposes a change in the<br />
calculation used to determine whether or not the vehicle owner must apply for a salvage<br />
title. For a vehicle to be considered salvage in Kentucky, the amount of damage must<br />
exceed 75 percent of its value just prior to the accident. If approved by the governor, the<br />
bill would exclude the cost of parts and labor for airbag replacement from the 75 percent<br />
calculation.<br />
The legislation would define a salvage vehicle as follows:<br />
(a) A vehicle which has been wrecked, destroyed, or damaged, to the extent that the total<br />
estimated or actual cost of parts and labor to rebuild or reconstruct the vehicle to its preaccident<br />
condition and for legal operation on the roads or highways, not including the cost<br />
of parts and labor to reinstall a deployed airbag system, exceeds seventy-five percent<br />
(75%) of the retail value of the vehicle, as set forth in a current edition of the National<br />
Automobile Dealer’s Association price guide.<br />
The bill adds additional language specifically stating that insurance must pay for airbag<br />
replacement.<br />
(d) Airbag reinstallation costs which are excluded from the seventy-five percent (75%)<br />
computation as set forth in paragraph (a) of this subsection shall be included by an insurer<br />
in the computation of the total physical damage estimate according to the terms and<br />
conditions of individual policies, provided that the total costs payable by an insurer do not<br />
exceed the total retail value of the vehicle.<br />
ADESA Sees Fifth Month of Firming Used Car Prices<br />
Excerpted From: CollisionWeek—April 2009<br />
Rising used car values mean damaged vehicles are more likely to be repaired than totaled,<br />
and ADESA Analytical Services just reported the fifth straight month of rising used car<br />
values.<br />
The firming in wholesale used vehicle prices that began in November continued in March,<br />
with average prices rising sequentially for the fifth month in a row, ADESA analyst Tom<br />
Kontos reported.<br />
On a year-over-year basis, prices are still modestly under water, but the level of submersion<br />
has diminished to almost negligible levels. “With consumers, and hence dealers, actively<br />
seeking used vehicles in these tough economic times, demand, as well as supply,<br />
conditions remain favorable for wholesale prices to continue to firm,” said Kontos.<br />
According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of Wholesale Used Vehicle<br />
Prices by Vehicle Model Class, wholesale used vehicle prices in March averaged $9,880<br />
-- a 5.5% increase over February. Cumulatively, average prices have risen by almost $1,250<br />
since their trough in October, though they remain down 1.5 percent year-over-year.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 12
Current Events in the Collision <strong>Industry</strong> (con't.)<br />
All vehicle model class segments experienced month-over-month increases in average<br />
prices, and full-size SUVs and pickups were both up year-over-year. Mid-size and full-size<br />
cars also registered year-over-year average price increases.<br />
DOT Posts New Fuel Economy Standards for Model Year 2011<br />
Excerpted From: ABRN—March 2009<br />
The U.S. Department of Transportation posted new fuel economy standards for cars and<br />
light trucks for the 2011 model year.<br />
The new standards will raise the industry-wide combined average to 27.3 miles per gallon<br />
(a 2.0 mpg increase over the 2010 model year average), as estimated by the National<br />
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). It will save about 887 million gallons of fuel<br />
and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 8.3 million metric tons.<br />
The 2011 standard will use an attribute-based system, which sets fuel economy standards<br />
for individual vehicle models, based on size. The work on the multi-year fuel economy plan<br />
for model years after 2011 is already underway.<br />
The review will include an evaluation of fuel-saving technologies, market conditions and<br />
future product plans from the manufacturers. The effort will be coordinated with interested<br />
stakeholders and other federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency.<br />
On January 26, 2009, President Barack Obama directed the Department of Transportation<br />
to review relevant legal, technological, and scientific considerations associated with<br />
establishing more stringent fuel economy standards, and to finalize the 2011 model year<br />
standard by the end of March.<br />
“These standards are important steps in the nation’s quest to achieve energy independence<br />
and bring more fuel efficient vehicles to American families,” says U.S. Secretary of<br />
Transportation Ray LaHood.<br />
U.S. Transportation Secretary Comments on Newest Seat Belt Data<br />
Excerpted From: CollisionWeek—April 2009<br />
The number of traffic deaths on U.S. roads last year reached a record low, while seat belt<br />
use continued to climb, the U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood announced. New<br />
state-by-state data shows that Michigan has the highest seat belt use, while Massachusetts<br />
registered the lowest.<br />
Lower fatalities and higher seat belt use are trends we want to see,” said Secretary LaHood.<br />
“States like Michigan are raising the bar on seat belt use, making communities safer and<br />
keeping families intact.”<br />
In Michigan, the belt use rate was 97.2 percent in 2008. By contrast, Massachusetts was<br />
66.8 percent.<br />
The DOT’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated that 37,313 people<br />
were killed in motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2008. It’s the lowest number of deaths on U.S.<br />
roads since 1961, when 36,285 lives were lost. The nation also saw the lowest fatality rate<br />
ever recorded in 2008 at 1.28 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, down from<br />
1.36 in 2007.<br />
The survey shows that jurisdictions with primary belt laws continue to exhibit higher use<br />
rates than those with weaker laws. In Maine, for example, belt use increased from 79.8<br />
percent to 83 percent a year after the state enacted a primary seat belt law.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 13
Motor Vehicle Markets<br />
New Vehicle Sales<br />
According to Ward’s auto, total new light-vehicle sales through March 2009 declined by an astonishing 38.3%<br />
compared to the same period last year. Both foreign and domestic manufacturers suffered serious declines,<br />
with domestic light trucks leading the decline.<br />
Number of Vehicles<br />
Ward’s U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Summary<br />
January-March 2009<br />
0 1m 2m<br />
Domestic Cars<br />
709,124<br />
-40.6<br />
Import Cars<br />
392,486<br />
-28.5<br />
Total Cars<br />
Domestic Light Trucks<br />
Import Light Trucks<br />
Total Light Trucks<br />
Domestic Light Vehicles<br />
1,101,610<br />
865,193<br />
230,436<br />
1,095,629<br />
1,574,317<br />
-36.8<br />
-42.7<br />
-26.0<br />
-39.8<br />
-41.7<br />
Vol % Change from 2008 Sales<br />
Import Light Vehicles<br />
622,922<br />
-27.6<br />
Total Light Vehicles<br />
2,197,239<br />
-38.3<br />
Number of Vehicles<br />
Ward’s U.S. Light Vehicle Sales by Company<br />
January-March 2009<br />
0 1m 2m<br />
Chrysler<br />
Ford<br />
GM<br />
<strong>International</strong> (Navistar)<br />
North America Total<br />
Honda<br />
Hyundai<br />
Isuzu<br />
Kia<br />
Mazda<br />
Mitsubishi<br />
Nissan<br />
Subaru<br />
Suzuki<br />
Tata<br />
Toyota<br />
Asia Total<br />
BMW<br />
Daimler<br />
Porsche<br />
Volkswagen<br />
Europe Total<br />
Total Light Vehicles<br />
246,047<br />
318,496<br />
409,832<br />
37<br />
974,412<br />
230,985<br />
95,854<br />
441<br />
68,893<br />
53,795<br />
13,834<br />
174,774<br />
41,532<br />
15,131<br />
8,596<br />
359,672<br />
1,063,507<br />
51,244<br />
45,219<br />
4,925<br />
57,932<br />
159,320<br />
2,197,239<br />
-45.6<br />
-42.8<br />
-48.8<br />
-54.3<br />
-46.2<br />
-34.5<br />
0.5<br />
-83.0<br />
1.0<br />
-30.8<br />
-48.9<br />
-35.2<br />
1.6<br />
-42.8<br />
-29.6<br />
-37.1<br />
-31.1<br />
-25.2<br />
-26.1<br />
-27.3<br />
-18.5<br />
-23.2<br />
-38.3<br />
Vol % Change from 2008 Sales<br />
Source is country of manufacture. Domestics are from U.S., Canada, Mexico. Imports are from overseas.<br />
Light vehicles are cars and light trucks (GVW Classes 1-3, under 14,001 lbs.). DSR is daily sales rate.<br />
Source: Ward’s AutoInfoBank ©Copyright 2009, Ward’s Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media Inc. Redistribution prohibited.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 14
Motor Vehicle Markets (con't.)<br />
Ward’s 10 Best Selling<br />
Cars and Trucks<br />
January-March 2009<br />
Cars<br />
1. Toyota Camry<br />
2. Toyota Corolla/Matrix<br />
67,199<br />
59,598<br />
Trucks/Vans/SUVs<br />
1. Ford F Series<br />
2. Chevrolet Silverado<br />
81,579<br />
67,283<br />
Note: Table combines imports and domestics.<br />
Source: Ward’s AutoInfoBank.<br />
3. Honda Accord<br />
4. Honda Civic<br />
5. Nissan Altima<br />
55,279<br />
50,530<br />
49,658<br />
3. Dodge Ram Pickup<br />
4. Honda CR-V<br />
5. Ford Escape<br />
46,619<br />
38,472<br />
31,030<br />
©Copyright 2009, Ward’s Automotive Group,<br />
a division of Penton Media Inc.<br />
Redistribution prohibited.<br />
6. Chevrolet Malibu<br />
7. Ford Focus<br />
8. Ford Fusion<br />
35,600<br />
30,056<br />
28,478<br />
6. Toyota RAV4<br />
7. Jeep Wrangler<br />
8. Toyota Tacoma<br />
28,331<br />
25,450<br />
24,937<br />
9. Chevrolet Impala<br />
27,515<br />
9. Dodge Caravan<br />
23,580<br />
10. Hyundai Sonata<br />
25,657<br />
10. GMC Sierra<br />
22,508<br />
Used Vehicle Sales – Current Monthly Index<br />
BY TOM WEBB<br />
Chief Economist – Manheim<br />
Wholesale Prices Rise in February<br />
Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally<br />
adjusted basis) increased significantly again in February.<br />
Seasonally adjusted, February’s rise was 3.7%, which came on<br />
the heels of a 3.8% increase in January. The Manheim Used<br />
Vehicle Value Index now stands at 105.5, which represents a yearover-year<br />
decline of 2.4%.<br />
Some analysts have suggested that the rapid rise in wholesale<br />
used vehicle pricing is a precursor to an improvement in new vehicle<br />
sales and may even point to a recovery in the overall economy. It’s<br />
more likely, however, that the turnaround in wholesale used vehicle<br />
values is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for a better<br />
new vehicle market. That’s especially true given that the recent rise<br />
in auction pricing has been driven in large part by supply dynamics<br />
that were created by the unprecedented slowdown in new vehicle<br />
sales.<br />
Pace of new vehicle sales continues to fall. February’s<br />
seasonally adjusted annual selling rate for new vehicles was only<br />
9.1 million units. New vehicle sales (absent rental and other fleet)<br />
have declined by an estimated 610,000 units in just the first two<br />
months of 2009. If one assumes a normal 60% trade-in rate to the<br />
selling dealer, that means 366,000 fewer units of potential used<br />
vehicle inventory. And, meanwhile, the rate of decline in retail used<br />
vehicle sales has begun to diminish. With forecasters continuing<br />
to lower new vehicle sales forecasts for 2009 (Edmund’s in now at<br />
10.1 million and J.D. Power is at 10.5 million), this supply dynamic<br />
is not going to change anytime soon.<br />
Pricing outlook: up in the short-term, stable in the long-term.<br />
Wholesale pricing has significant upside momentum as result<br />
of the needed bounce-back from 2008’s dismal fourth quarter.<br />
(Seasonally and mix-adjusted wholesale prices are still lower than<br />
they were in any of the first nine months of 2008.) Nevertheless,<br />
with non-seasonally adjusted wholesale prices up nearly 12%<br />
since the start of the year, it will be difficult for dealers to pass<br />
further large increases on to retail customers. More important,<br />
lenders have not, and probably will not, increase permissible loan<br />
amounts to fully offset the rise in inventory acquisition costs.<br />
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index<br />
February 2008 – February 2009<br />
116<br />
114<br />
112<br />
110<br />
108<br />
106<br />
104<br />
102<br />
100<br />
98<br />
96<br />
94<br />
92<br />
90<br />
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb<br />
08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09<br />
Source: Manheim Consulting<br />
Buyers switch to used vehicles. Comments from dealers indicate<br />
that potential new vehicle buyers are opting instead to buy used.<br />
Evidence that these buyers could have actually afforded a new<br />
vehicle is provided by the fact that many of today’s used vehicle<br />
customers are making significant downpayments and the shorter<br />
loan maturity (relative to new vehicles) means that the monthly<br />
payment on their used vehicle loan would often be enough to buy<br />
new.<br />
Tax refunds may be helping more than expected. The IRS has<br />
yet to release any refund statistics for the 2009 tax season to date,<br />
but hints are that the disbursements may have risen substantially.<br />
The increase in the standard deduction, as well as the rise in the<br />
maximum earned income tax credit, has likely been very beneficial<br />
to the used vehicle market.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 15
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data<br />
The following information was assembled from industry-wide appraisal data uploaded from<br />
participating insurance carriers, body shops, and independent appraisers, processed by<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> and compiled through <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s AIM (Advanced Information<br />
Management) system.<br />
With the obvious exception of the Total Loss section, all data in this section, including ACV<br />
benchmarks, relate to repairable vehicle appraisals only.<br />
Sections included in the <strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data:<br />
• Average Appraisal Values<br />
• Comprehensive Losses<br />
• Supplements<br />
• Paint & Materials<br />
• Adjustments<br />
• Collision Losses<br />
• Third-Party Auto Property Damage<br />
• Parts Analysis<br />
• Labor Analysis<br />
• Total Losses<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
AIM<br />
AIM <br />
features immediate online data access,<br />
custom report construction, ad-hoc query<br />
capabilities, weekly updates, and the ability to<br />
accept and consolidate detailed appraisal data<br />
from all major estimating platforms. For more<br />
information on AIM, visit <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s website at<br />
www.mitchell.com.<br />
Development Explained<br />
The following data points are dynamic and subject to change from on-going supplement<br />
and total loss designation activities amending original appraisal values. Average appraisal<br />
values submitted in June, for example, will likely increase by several dollars over the next<br />
few months, then stabilize as all supplements are factored into the final value for the period.<br />
Raw values are provided, and then adjusted based on the observed six-month change<br />
behavior from prior data to produce a projected final or “developed” value. Adjusted values<br />
may therefore be considered reliable approximations of the eventual, industry value for<br />
any given datum. As supplement frequency and severity, as well as total loss designation<br />
activities vary by carrier, we suggest that each company isolate their own development<br />
factors to apply to their own unique data sets.<br />
Average Appraisal Values<br />
The average appraisal value, calculated by combining data from all first and third-party<br />
repairable vehicle appraisals uploaded through <strong>Mitchell</strong> systems in Q1-2009 was $2,481—<br />
$53 less than the previous year’s Q1-2008 appraisal average of $2,534.<br />
However, when applying the prescribed development factor of 2.5% to these data, it<br />
produces an anticipated average appraisal value of $2,545.*<br />
Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age<br />
All APD Line Coverages<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$12,655<br />
$12,818<br />
$13,016<br />
$12,738<br />
$12,316<br />
$11,630<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
UltraMate<br />
UltraMate ® is <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s advanced estimating<br />
system, combining database accuracy,<br />
automated calculations, and repair<br />
procedure pages to produce estimates that<br />
are comprehensive, verifiable, and accepted<br />
throughout the collision industry. UltraMate<br />
is a central component of <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s all-inone<br />
estimating, imaging, and claims workflow<br />
management solution, UltraMate Premier<br />
Suite. For more information on UltraMate<br />
and UltraMate Premier Suite, visit <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s<br />
website at www.mitchell.com.<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$2,440<br />
$2,525<br />
$2,450<br />
$2,534<br />
$2,492<br />
$2,481/<br />
2,545<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
5.91<br />
5.89<br />
5.98<br />
6.01<br />
6.20<br />
6.29<br />
Appraisals<br />
ACV’s<br />
*NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 16
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Collision Losses<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Q1-2009 data reflect an initial average gross Collision appraisal value of $2,839—<br />
$70 less than this same period last year. Applying the indicated development factor of 3%<br />
suggests a final Q1-2009 average gross collision appraisal value will be $2,927.<br />
On average, Actual Cash Value (ACV) of vehicles appraised for Collision losses during<br />
Q1-2009 was $12,253—$1,171 less than in Q1-2008, reflecting the lowered value of<br />
today’s older vehicle mix.*<br />
Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age<br />
Collision Coverage*<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$13,398<br />
$13,553<br />
$14,176<br />
$13,424<br />
$13,021<br />
$12,253<br />
Automobile Milestones:<br />
Facts At-A-Glance…<br />
• Bicycle makers Charles and Frank<br />
Duryea built the first gasoline<br />
powered automobile in America in<br />
1893.<br />
• Founded in 1908, General<br />
Motors was the largest vehicle<br />
manufacturer from 1932 to 2008—<br />
76 years!<br />
• In 1922, Tokyo Ishikawajima<br />
Shipbuilding & Engineering Company<br />
built its version of the British Wolseley<br />
A9—making it the first passenger<br />
car ever made in Japan.<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$2,831<br />
Q3 2006<br />
$2,917<br />
Q1 2007<br />
$2,791<br />
Q3 2007<br />
$2,909<br />
Q1 2008<br />
$2,831<br />
Q3 2008<br />
$2,839/<br />
2,927<br />
Q1 2009<br />
• In November of 1982, the first<br />
American-produced Honda Accord<br />
rolled off the assembly line at the<br />
Marysville, Ohio, Auto Plant.<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
5.58<br />
5.60<br />
Comprehensive Losses<br />
5.64<br />
In Q1-2009, the average initial gross appraisal value for Comprehensive coverage<br />
estimates processed through our servers was $2,302, compared to $2,242 in Q1-2008.<br />
Applying the prescribed development factor of 3% for this data set produces an adjusted<br />
value of $2,359—a $117 increase from this same period last year. Q1-2009’s average<br />
appraised vehicle value (ACV) for comprehensive losses was $11,783—a decrease of<br />
$1,381 under vehicles appraised during this same period in 2008.*<br />
5.63<br />
5.78<br />
Appraisals<br />
5.88<br />
ACV’s<br />
• The Chinese automobile industry<br />
officially began on September 28,<br />
1958, when it produced its first<br />
vehicle—the Shanghai Phoenix.<br />
• China’s automakers produced 8.88<br />
million motor vehicles in 2007,<br />
making this nation the 3rd largest<br />
producer of motor vehicles after<br />
Japan and the United States.<br />
Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age<br />
Comprehensive Losses<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$12,634<br />
$13,397<br />
$12,968<br />
$13,164<br />
$12,385<br />
$11,783<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$2,101<br />
$2,096<br />
$2,191<br />
$2,242<br />
$2,358<br />
$2,302/<br />
2,359<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
6.22<br />
6.09<br />
6.26<br />
6.18<br />
6.37<br />
6.40<br />
Appraisals<br />
ACV’s<br />
*NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 17
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Third Party Property Damage<br />
In Q1-2009, our industry initial average gross Third-party Property Damage appraisal was<br />
$2,211 compared to $2,269 in Q1-2008—reflecting a $58 initial decrease between these<br />
respective periods. Adding the prescribed development factor of 2.5% for this coverage<br />
type yields a Q1-2009 adjusted appraisal value of $2,245—an overall 1% increase over<br />
Q1-2008.*<br />
Average Appraisal Values, ACVs and Age<br />
Auto Physical Damage APD<br />
$12,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$11,958<br />
$12,078<br />
$11,976<br />
$12,047<br />
$11,703<br />
$11,058<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$2,145<br />
$2,246<br />
$2,194<br />
$2,269<br />
$2,230<br />
$2,211/<br />
2,245<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
6.03<br />
6.04<br />
6.13<br />
6.24<br />
6.39<br />
6.55<br />
Appraisals<br />
ACV’s<br />
Supplements<br />
Editors Note: As it generally takes at least three months following the original date of<br />
appraisal to accumulate most supplements against an original estimate of repair, we report<br />
(and recommend viewing supplement information) three months’ after-the-fact, to obtain<br />
the most accurate view of these data.<br />
In Q1-2009, 30.01% of all original estimates prepared by <strong>Mitchell</strong>-equipped estimators<br />
during that period were supplemented one or more times. In this same period, the pure<br />
supplement frequency (supplements to estimates), was 52.59%—reflecting a 2.60 pt, or<br />
6% relative increase, from that same period in 2008. The average combined supplement<br />
variance for this quarter was $556.00—$88.75 lower than in Q1-2008.<br />
Average Supplement Frequency and Severity<br />
Date<br />
% Est. Supplement<br />
% Supplement<br />
Avg. Combined Supp. Variance<br />
% Supplement $<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Pt/$ Change % Change<br />
34.39 35.31 33.41 35.26 32.9 30.01 -5.25 -16%<br />
47.66 50.77 46.46 49.99 46.46 52.59 2.6 6%<br />
633.27 641.92 626.59 644.75 648.51 556 -88.75 -14%<br />
25.96 25.43 25.57 25.45 26.03 22.41 -3.04 -12%<br />
*NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 18
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Average Appraisal Make-up<br />
This chart compares the average appraisal make-up as a percentage of dollars, constructed<br />
by <strong>Mitchell</strong>-equipped estimators. These data points reflect a slight decrease in the use of<br />
parts, while the percentage of paint material and labor dollars used in the average appraisal<br />
have increased between these respective periods.<br />
% Average Appraisal Dollars by Type<br />
Date<br />
% Average Part $<br />
% Average Labor $<br />
% Paint Material $<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Pt/$ Change % Change<br />
44.38 45.87 44.32 44.99 42.61 44.13 -0.86 -2%<br />
44.68 43.39 44.75 44.09 46.1 44.5 0.41 1%<br />
9.48 9.32 9.65 9.64 10.24 10.26 0.62 6%<br />
Parts Analysis<br />
As a general observation, recent data show that parts make up 44.3% of the average value<br />
per repairable vehicle appraisal, about (.6) points more than the average allocation of labor<br />
dollars. In addition, the current trend reflects a continued decrease in the use of new OEM<br />
parts, likely as a result of the increases in collision parts taken by the manufacturers to<br />
offset increased delivery and storage expenses.<br />
Editor’s Note: While there isn’t a perfect correlation between the types of parts specified<br />
by estimators and those actually used during the course of repairs, we feel that the<br />
following observations to be directionally accurate for both the insurance and auto body<br />
repair industries. This segment illuminates the percentage of dollars allocated to each<br />
unique part-type.<br />
Parts Type Definitions<br />
• Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM): Parts produced directly by the vehicle<br />
manufacturer or their authorized supplier, and delivered through the manufacturer's<br />
designated and approved supply channels. This category covers all automotive parts,<br />
including sheet metal and mechanical parts.<br />
• Aftermarket: Parts produced and/or supplied by firms other than the Original Equipment<br />
Manufacturer’s designated supply channel. This may also include those parts originally<br />
manufactured by endorsed OEM suppliers, which have later followed alternative<br />
distribution and sales processes. While this part category is often only associated with<br />
crash replacement parts, the automotive aftermarket also includes a large variety of<br />
mechanical and custom parts as well.<br />
• Non-New/Remanufactured: Parts removed from an existing vehicle that are cleaned,<br />
inspected, repaired and/or rebuilt, usually back to the original equipment manufacturer’s<br />
specifications, and re-marketed through either the OEM or alternative supply chains.<br />
While commonly associated with mechanical hard parts such as alternators, starters and<br />
engines, remanufactured parts may also include select crash parts such as urethane and<br />
TPO bumpers, radiators and wheels as well.<br />
• Like Kind and Quality (LKQ): Parts removed from a salvaged vehicle and re-marketed<br />
through private or consolidated auto parts recyclers. This category commonly includes all<br />
types of parts and assemblies, especially body, interior and mechanical parts.<br />
Editor’s Note: It is commonly understood within the collision repair and insurance industries that a<br />
very large number of LKQ “parts” are actually “parts-assemblies” (such as doors, which in fact include<br />
numerous attached parts and pieces). Thus, attempting to make discrete comparisons between the<br />
average number of LKQ and any other parts types used per estimate may be difficult and inaccurate.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
Alternate<br />
Parts Program<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Alternate Parts Program (MAPP)<br />
offers automated access to nearly 30,000,000<br />
Remanufactured, Aftermarket, and OEM<br />
Discount parts from over 1,500 suppliers,<br />
ensuring shops get the parts they need<br />
from their preferred vendors. MAPP is fully<br />
integrated with UltraMate for total ease-of-use.<br />
Designated company administrators are also<br />
provided the MAPP Matrix Manager application<br />
free of charge—allowing clients the ability<br />
to manage their MAPP matrices, run four<br />
different matrix reports, add new suppliers/<br />
parts, all from their local platform without the<br />
need for <strong>Mitchell</strong> support/intervention.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
Quality<br />
Recycled<br />
Parts (QRP)<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Quality Recycled Parts (QRP) is<br />
the most comprehensive source for finding<br />
recycled parts. It gives online access to a parts<br />
database compiled from a growing network of<br />
more than 2,500 of the highest quality recyclers<br />
in North America and Canada, covering more<br />
than 400 part categories representing access<br />
to nearly 44,000,000 parts from recyclers’<br />
parts inventories—updated daily. QRP is fully<br />
integrated with UltraMate for total ease-of-use.<br />
In addition, for selected QRP parts, UltraMate<br />
automatically applies <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Assembly Time<br />
Guide labor allowances and P-pages specific to<br />
LK parts replacement.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 19
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Parts Use in Dollars<br />
In Q1-2009, OEM parts represented 71.09% of all parts dollars specified by <strong>Mitchell</strong>equipped<br />
estimators. These data reflect a 2.75 point relative decrease from Q1-2008. Likely<br />
influences include the fact that many OEM parts makers increased prices in the last year,<br />
resulting in alternate parts becoming more attractive because of their lower prices.<br />
OEM Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal<br />
73.8%<br />
74.2% 74.8% 73.8% 73.9% 71.1%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Aftermarket Parts Use in Dollars<br />
In Q1-2009, 11.58% of all parts dollars recorded on <strong>Mitchell</strong> appraisals were attributed to<br />
Aftermarket sources—up less than a point from Q1-2008. Though up slightly, aftermarket<br />
parts have not seen much of an increase because of the OEM parts price increase. LKQ<br />
parts have seen more of an increase in utilization.<br />
Aftermarket Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal<br />
10.2%<br />
10.5% 9.9% 10.7% 10.2% 11.6%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Remanufactured Parts Use in Dollars<br />
Currently listed as “Non-New” parts in our estimating platform and reporting products,<br />
Remanufactured parts currently represent 5.16% of the average gross parts dollars used<br />
in <strong>Mitchell</strong> appraisals during Q1-2009. This reflects a 0.4 point relative increase over this<br />
same period in 2008.<br />
Non-New/Remanufactured Parts, as a % of<br />
Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal<br />
4.9%<br />
4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Like Kind and Quality Parts Use in Dollars<br />
LKQ parts constituted 12.18% of the average parts dollars used per appraisal during<br />
Q1-2009—reflecting a 1.46 point relative increase from this same period last year.<br />
LKQ Parts, as a % of Total Parts Dollars per Appraisal<br />
11.2%<br />
10.6% 10.6% 10.7% 11.1% 12.2%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 20
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Understanding <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC:<br />
Sorting Out the Myths &<br />
Learning the Facts<br />
BY GREG HORN<br />
Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong> Relations, <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC (Refinishing Materials Calculator) may be the most misunderstood product<br />
that <strong>Mitchell</strong> produces—yet potentially the most powerful.<br />
The accuracy and utility of <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC and similar paint and materials cost calculator<br />
products as alternatives to the standard hourly reimbursement formula have been<br />
recognized by various state regulatory agencies, and <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC is endorsed by<br />
many shop associations, which is why it is so beneficial for all industry participants to<br />
understand exactly what <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC is and what it does. It’s equally as important to<br />
dispel misunderstandings about what the product does not do in order to understand how<br />
it can go to work for you.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC is an electronic materials calculation tool that provides complete job-specific<br />
materials costing for imported and domestic vehicles according to year, make, and paint<br />
code and offers an accurate automated itemization of the refinisher’s costs for primers,<br />
colors, clear coats, additives, and other materials needed to restore vehicles to preaccident<br />
condition. Additionally, RMC calculations accurately reflect the translucency of<br />
various paint materials by measuring the amount of material needed to achieve complete<br />
coverage.<br />
Myth No. 1: RMC establishes retail prices for paint and materials.<br />
Fact: <strong>Mitchell</strong> has absolutely no role in establishing paint and materials pricing, as each<br />
individual paint manufacturer is responsible for setting its own pricing. <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC does<br />
use the pricing information provided by paint manufacturers to calculate an aggregate<br />
average for refinisher pricing. While RMC—by no means—reflects or has a role in<br />
establishing retail prices, mark ups to RMC’s calculated prices may be necessary in order<br />
to reflect a normal profit. It is also important to note that RMC pricing does not reflect<br />
possible volume discounts that may be available to large buyers of refinish materials.<br />
Myth No. 2: RMC does not take different paint colors into account.<br />
Fact: RMC uses a database containing over 8,500 specific paint codes to provide paintspecific<br />
materials cost calculations based on a vehicle’s specific paint type and color<br />
rather than using the traditional flat dollar-per-hour costing method. To ensure precise<br />
calculations, RMC categorizes every paint code into one of six levels to determine an<br />
accurate average cost.<br />
Myth No. 3: RMC can only be used in conjunction with <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
Fact: Contrary to popular belief, RMC can actually be used in several different ways.<br />
While it is available as an integrated value-added feature of <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate, it is also<br />
available as a stand-alone Windows ® -based application that can be utilized alongside other<br />
Windows-based estimating platforms.<br />
Myth No. 4: RMC only calculates paint costs and does not incorporate<br />
other materials used in the refinish process.<br />
Fact: RMC calculations are accurate and complete because they include allowances<br />
for solvents, reducers, primers/sealers, catalysts, sanding discs and sanding paper/scuff<br />
pads, tack cloths, masking tape and paper, just to name a few.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
Refinishing<br />
Materials<br />
Calculator<br />
(RMC)<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Refinishing Materials Calculator<br />
(RMC) provides accurate calculations for<br />
refinishing materials costs by incorporating a<br />
database of over 8,500 paint codes from eight<br />
paint manufacturers. It provides job-specific<br />
materials costing according to color and type<br />
of paint, plus access to the only automated,<br />
accurate, field-tested, and industry-accepted<br />
breakdown of actual costs of primers, colors,<br />
clear coats, additives, and other materials<br />
needed to restore vehicles to preaccident<br />
condition. RMC is also fully integrated with<br />
UltraMate and UltraMate Premier Suite for<br />
total ease of use. For more information on<br />
RMC, visit www.mitchell.com.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 21
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Myth No. 5: RMC cannot calculate waterborne paint costs.<br />
Fact: RMC uses waterborne paint tables to accurately calculate and display both solvent<br />
and waterborne paint materials costs.<br />
Myth No. 6: RMC favors one side of the industry more than the other.<br />
Fact: All industry participants—from collision repair facilities and paint companies to<br />
insurance companies, appraisers and independent claims adjusters—can benefit from<br />
RMC’s paint code specific calculations that help write estimates that accurately reflect<br />
refinish materials costs. Because of its paint code specific accuracy, RMC is designed for<br />
this wide range of users who want to accurately reflect refinish materials costs. In fact, RMC<br />
is endorsed by multiple shop associations and paint manufacturers and is increasingly<br />
accepted by insurers as an alternative to flat-rate approximations.<br />
Myth No. 7: RMC pricing isn’t accurate because refinish materials prices<br />
change too quickly for RMC to keep up with.<br />
Fact: <strong>Mitchell</strong> provides the industry with accurate and up-to-date refinish materials costs<br />
by analyzing pricing data on a monthly basis and instituting a “trigger” that activates an<br />
RMC data update when the aggregate paint price data received from manufacturers<br />
changes by more than three percent. Additionally, <strong>Mitchell</strong> also reviews paint offerings and<br />
eliminates lines that are no longer commonly used by refinishers in order to ensure that<br />
RMC includes only the most relevant product lines used in the industry.<br />
They say you learn something new everyday…today we hope these examples have<br />
helped you learn the facts about <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC while dispelling any myths that you may<br />
have heard about this solution. In today’s increasingly competitive marketplace, the entire<br />
collision repair industry is faced with many challenges, including the paramount need for<br />
estimate accuracy in a constantly changing refinish materials environment. <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC<br />
can help meet these industry-wide challenges. See for yourself and sample the power of<br />
the industry’s most accurate paint and materials calculator.<br />
To order your free <strong>Mitchell</strong> RMC 30-day trial software, click here, or call (800) 238-9111.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 22
9.5% $25.17<br />
9.3%<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Collision Repair <strong>Industry</strong> Data (con't.)<br />
Paint and Materials<br />
During Q1-2009, Paint and Materials made up nearly 10.26% of our average appraisal<br />
value—representing a .62-point relative increase from Q1-2008. Represented differently,<br />
the average paint and materials rate—achieved by dividing the average paint and materials<br />
allowance per estimate by the average estimate refinish hours—yielded a rate of $27.97<br />
per refinish hour in this period, compared to $26.48 in Q1-2008.<br />
Editor’s note: The chart shown now excludes comprehensive estimates in the calculations<br />
to avoid seasonal hail related swings in the data reported.<br />
Paint and Materials, by Quarter<br />
$26.48<br />
10.2%<br />
$27.40<br />
10.3%<br />
$27.97<br />
$25.49<br />
9.7% $25.93 9.6%<br />
Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009<br />
% of Appraisal $ Rate = Average P&M $/Average Refinish Hours/Estimate<br />
Labor Analysis<br />
Average body labor rates have risen in all of our sample states<br />
compared to the same time period last year. We have added the<br />
state of New Hampshire with its mix of urban and rural areas to<br />
the sample to better gauge changes in New England states.<br />
% Average Labor Dollars by Type<br />
Refinish (33.9%)<br />
Parts Replacement (25.9%)<br />
Parts Repair (40.2%)<br />
Average Body Labor Rates and Change by State<br />
Arizona<br />
California<br />
Florida<br />
Hawaii<br />
Illinois<br />
Michigan<br />
New Hampshire<br />
New Jersey<br />
New York<br />
Ohio<br />
Texas<br />
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Pt/$ %<br />
Change Change<br />
45.11 46.00 $0.89 2.0%<br />
47.54 48.76 $1.22 2.6%<br />
40.80 41.31 $0.51 1.3%<br />
42.74 43.20 $0.46 1.1%<br />
45.90 46.45 $0.55 1.2%<br />
40.59 40.95 $0.36 0.9%<br />
42.24 43.03 $0.79 1.9%<br />
44.53 44.63 $0.10 0.2%<br />
44.87 45.45 $0.58 1.3%<br />
40.89 42.42 $1.53 3.7%<br />
40.76 41.69 $0.93 2.3%<br />
Adjustments<br />
The percentage of overall adjustments to estimates decreased significantly in the first<br />
quarter of 2009, as did the percentage estimates where betterment was taken.<br />
Appearance allowances and prior damage estimates written increased slightly during the<br />
quarter, with betterment dollars decreasing slightly.<br />
Adjustment $ and %’s<br />
Date<br />
% Adjustments Est<br />
% Betterment Est<br />
% Appear Allow Est<br />
% Prior Damage Est<br />
Avg. Betterment $<br />
Avg. Appear Allow $<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Pt$/Change % Change<br />
4.62 4.29 4.03 3.79 3.15 1.99 -1.8 -57%<br />
3.55 3.36 3.19 3.02 2.29 1.19 -1.83 -80%<br />
0.6 0.55 0.58 0.55 0.59 0.56 0.01 2%<br />
4.81 4.57 4.67 4.43 4.77 4.96 0.53 11%<br />
111.81 104.28 117.89 110.53 129.62 104.8 -5.73 -4%<br />
181 164.28 170.61 169.5 186.26 174.93 5.43 3%<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 23
Total Loss<br />
The charts below illustrate the total loss data for both vehicle age and actual cash value of total loss vehicles<br />
processed through <strong>Mitchell</strong> servers. We can see the effect of dismal new car sales, which is aging the overall fleet<br />
of vehicles on the road in the U.S.<br />
Average Vehicle Age in Years<br />
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1<br />
Vehicles 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009<br />
Convertible 9.76 9.48 9.94 9.67 10.24 10.00<br />
Coupe 10.00 9.92 10.24 10.10 10.41 10.38<br />
Hatchback 10.70 10.74 10.56 10.11 9.97 9.70<br />
Sedan 9.18 9.22 9.34 9.30 9.48 9.56<br />
Wagon 9.44 9.30 9.00 8.63 8.75 8.53<br />
Other Passenger 10.55 10.54 10.84 11.08 11.10 10.24<br />
Pickup 9.83 9.67 9.83 9.74 10.01 9.77<br />
Van 9.58 9.53 9.69 9.58 9.84 9.69<br />
SUV 8.02 8.07 8.26 8.30 8.38 8.52<br />
Average Vehicle Actual Cash Value<br />
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1<br />
Vehicles 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009<br />
Convertible $10,101.14 $9,850.28 $10,076.15 $10,270.07 $10,613.47 $9,144.12<br />
Coupe $5,833.18 $5,970.69 $6,091.30 $6,196.31 $5,993.13 $6,012.40<br />
Hatchback $4,631.78 $4,795.36 $5,437.27 $5,622.45 $5,741.52 $5,992.35<br />
Sedan $5,951.45 $5,916.96 $6,116.83 $6,177.32 $6,092.01 $6,038.30<br />
Wagon $6,759.21 $6,868.27 $7,367.90 $7,469.35 $7,209.46 $7,242.08<br />
Other Passenger $12,754.02 $15,650.49 $13,431.56 $13,715.01 $14,189.14 $16,982.02<br />
Pickup $8,897.34 $8,951.20 $9,055.35 $9,326.98 $9,145.00 $8,404.60<br />
Van $5,866.42 $5,632.00 $5,679.35 $5,798.50 $5,576.61 $5,152.27<br />
SUV $9,806.50 $9,239.94 $9,337.48 $9,353.88 $9,253.72 $7,963.58<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Product Solution:<br />
WorkCenter Total Loss<br />
WorkCenter Total Loss is a state-of-the-art, loss vehicle valuation system designed to: 1) Improve policyholder<br />
satisfaction with the settlement process, 2) Automate Department of Insurance regulation compliance, and 3)<br />
Improve efficiency, reduce settlement time, and manage settlement costs. WorkCenter Total Loss’s valuations are<br />
reliable and easy-to-understand. They’re reliable because they’re based on vehicles recently sold or advertised in the<br />
same area as the vehicle owner. Valuations are easy-to-understand because they are intuitive, and reports include<br />
details on comparable vehicles used in a valuation. WorkCenter Total Loss incorporates a leading-edge analytic<br />
model developed through a partnership with J.D. Power and Associates ® —widely recognized and respected for<br />
their expertise and impartiality. You and your policyholders can be confident that valuations are fair and accurate.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 24
Canadian Collision Summary<br />
At the request of our customers and friends in Canada, we are pleased to provide the following<br />
Canada-specific statistics, observations, and trends. All dollar-figures appearing in this<br />
section are in CDN$. As a point of clarification, these data are the product of upload activities<br />
from Body Shop, Independent Appraisers and Insurance personnel, more accurately<br />
depicting insurance-paid loss activity, rather than consumer direct or retail market pricing.<br />
Average Appraisal Values<br />
The average gross appraisal value, calculated by combining initial data from all first- and<br />
third-party repairable vehicle appraisals uploaded through <strong>Mitchell</strong> Canadian systems<br />
in Q1-2009 was $3,005—a $64 decrease from Q1-2008. However, when applying the<br />
prescribed development factor of .2% yields an anticipated average appraisal value of<br />
$3,072—a $3 decrease from Q1-2008.*<br />
W<br />
Editors Note: All dollar-figures<br />
appearing in this section are in CDN$.<br />
As a point of clarification, these data<br />
are the product of upload activities from<br />
Body Shop, Independent Appraisers and<br />
Insurance personnel, more accurately<br />
depicting insurance-paid loss activity,<br />
rather than consumer direct or retail<br />
market pricing.<br />
Canada—Severity Overall<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$13,292<br />
$12,858<br />
$13,317<br />
$13,140<br />
$12,714<br />
$12,021<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$3,007<br />
$3,088<br />
$3,062<br />
$3,069<br />
$3,120<br />
$3,005/<br />
3,072<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
5.77<br />
5.58<br />
5.57<br />
5.42<br />
5.37<br />
5.31<br />
Collision Losses<br />
Appraisals<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Q1-2009 data reflects a Canadian average initial gross collision severity of<br />
$3,105—a $61 decrease from Q1-2008. But when we apply the prescribed development<br />
factor, we obtain an estimated final value of $3,175—reflecting a $9 increase.*<br />
Canada—Severity Collision<br />
ACV’s<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$13,198<br />
$12,898<br />
$13,194<br />
$13,207<br />
$12,668<br />
$12,088<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$3,122<br />
$3,217<br />
$3,082<br />
$3,166<br />
$3,095<br />
$3,105/<br />
3,175<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
5.60<br />
5.44<br />
5.46<br />
5.35<br />
5.29<br />
5.27<br />
Appraisals<br />
ACV’s<br />
*NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 25
Canadian Collision Summary (con't.)<br />
Comprehensive Losses<br />
In Q1-2009, the average gross Canadian initial appraisal value for comprehensive<br />
coverage estimates processed through our servers was $2,706—or $96 lower than in<br />
Q1-2008. Applying the prescribed development factor of .1%, the anticipated average<br />
appraisal value will be $2,744.*<br />
$14,000<br />
$12,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
Canada—Severity Comprehensive<br />
$2,717<br />
Q3 2006<br />
6.30<br />
$13,547<br />
$2,563<br />
Q1 2007<br />
5.99<br />
$13,357<br />
$3,140<br />
Q3 2007<br />
5.79<br />
$13,931<br />
Third Party Property Damage<br />
Q1 2008<br />
In Q1-2009, our Canadian industry initial average gross third-party property damage<br />
appraisal was $2,516—a decrease of $94 from Q1-2008 on vehicles that were slightly<br />
newer, but slightly lower valued.*<br />
$2,802<br />
5.65<br />
$13,714<br />
$3,425<br />
Q3 2008<br />
5.44<br />
$13,664<br />
Appraisals<br />
$2,706/<br />
2,744<br />
Q1 2009<br />
5.38<br />
$12,527<br />
ACV’s<br />
W<br />
About <strong>Mitchell</strong> in Canada…<br />
For more than 17 years, <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s<br />
dedicated Canadian operations have<br />
focused specifically and entirely on<br />
the unique needs of collision repairers<br />
and insurers operating in the Canadian<br />
marketplace. Our Canadian team<br />
is known for making itself readily<br />
available, for being flexible in its<br />
approach to improving claims and<br />
repair processes, and for its ‘second<br />
to no one’ commitment to customer<br />
support. Headquartered in Toronto,<br />
with offices across Canada, <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
Canada delivers state-of-the-art, multilingual<br />
collision estimating and claims<br />
workflow solutions (including hardware,<br />
networks, training, and more), worldclass<br />
service, and localized support.<br />
To learn more about <strong>Mitchell</strong> Canada<br />
and its solutions and services, contact:<br />
Mike Jerry<br />
Vice President and General Manager–<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Canada<br />
t: 888.209.4338<br />
f: 416.733.1633<br />
Canada—Severity Third Party<br />
$12,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$12,478<br />
$11,669<br />
$12,336<br />
$11,893<br />
$12,279<br />
$11,043<br />
$8,000<br />
$6,000<br />
$4,000<br />
$2,000<br />
$2,932<br />
$2,357<br />
$2,388<br />
$2,610<br />
$3,312<br />
$2,516/<br />
2,618<br />
Q3 2006<br />
Q1 2007<br />
Q3 2007<br />
Q1 2008<br />
Q3 2008<br />
Q1 2009<br />
Avg. Unit Age<br />
6.65<br />
6.53<br />
6.09<br />
6.24<br />
5.78<br />
6.07<br />
Appraisals<br />
ACV’s<br />
*NOTE: Values provided from Guidebook benchmark averages, furnished through <strong>Mitchell</strong> UltraMate ® .<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 26
Canadian Collision Summary (con't.)<br />
Supplements<br />
In Q1-2009, 35.54% of original estimates prepared by Canadian <strong>Mitchell</strong> equipped<br />
estimators during that period were supplemented one or more times. In the same period,<br />
the pure supplement frequency (supplements to estimates) was 63.41%—reflecting a<br />
7.76% increase over the same period last year. At $295.26, the average supplement<br />
variance was $75.76—(20.4%) lower than the same period in 2008.<br />
W<br />
Supplement %’s<br />
Date<br />
% Est Supplements<br />
% Supplements<br />
Avg Combined Supp Variance<br />
% Supplement $<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Pt Change % Change<br />
25.79 31.86 37.15 41.62 39.59 35.54 -6.08 -15%<br />
17.33 53.56 47.81 55.65 44.29 63.41 7.76 18%<br />
458.83 384.15 350.96 371.02 348.6 295.26 -75.76 -22%<br />
15.26 12.44 11.46 12.09 11.17 9.83 -2.26 -20%<br />
Average Appraisal Make-up<br />
This chart compares the average appraisal make-up as a percentage of dollars, constructed<br />
by <strong>Mitchell</strong>-equipped estimators. These data points reflect an increase in Paint Materials<br />
dollars, with no change in labor dollars. The percentage parts has declined between these<br />
respective periods.<br />
% Average Appraisal Dollars by Type<br />
Date<br />
% Average Part $<br />
% Average Labor $<br />
% Paint Material $<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09 Pt/$ Change % Change<br />
43.19 45.8 42.16 44.07 39.02 43.61 -0.46 -1%<br />
44.33 43.22 46.58 44.48 49.02 44.71 0.23 0%<br />
8.44 8.14 8.57 8.64 8.97 8.94 0.3 3%<br />
Labor Analysis<br />
All data reflect the percentage of labor-type dollars utilized in the construction of <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
appraisals by Canadian estimators. Labor rates rose in all Provinces and Territories; with<br />
Alberta and the Northwest Territories having the biggest increases.<br />
% Average Labor Dollars by Type<br />
Average Body Labor Rates and Changes by Province<br />
Refinish (35.9%)<br />
Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Pt Change % Change<br />
Remove/Replace (24.75%)<br />
Repair (39.35%)<br />
CANADA<br />
ALBERTA<br />
BRITISH COLUMBIA<br />
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR<br />
NOVA SCOTIA<br />
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES<br />
ONTARIO<br />
QUEBEC<br />
YUKON TERRITORY<br />
53.66 55.49 $1.83 3%<br />
63.27 67.63 $4.36 7%<br />
64.14 66.67 $2.53 4%<br />
54.06 56.63 $2.57 5%<br />
52.64 54.17 $1.53 3%<br />
72.57 78.11 $5.54 8%<br />
50.93 52.15 $1.22 2%<br />
43.47 44.85 $1.38 3%<br />
79.83 78.33 $1.50 -1.9%<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 27
Canadian Collision Summary (con't.)<br />
Parts Analysis<br />
As a general observation, recent data show that parts make up 44.9% of the average<br />
value per repairable vehicle appraisal, about 0.63 points more than the average allocation<br />
of labor dollars. In addition, the overall trend now reflects a stabilized level of OEM parts<br />
use, an increasing volume of Aftermarket and Remanufactured parts dollars used by<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>-equipped estimators, and declining LKQ (recycled) parts use.<br />
W<br />
Editor’s Note: While there isn’t a perfect correlation between the types of parts specified<br />
by estimators and those actually used during the course of repairs, we feel the following<br />
observations to be directionally accurate for both the insurance and auto body repair<br />
industries. This segment illuminates the percentage of dollars allocated to each unique<br />
part-type.<br />
For Parts Types Definitions, see page 18.<br />
Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Parts Use in Dollars<br />
In Q1-2009, Canadian OEM parts use declined ever so slightly compared to Q1-2008<br />
and is in line with the trend in the U.S. on new OE parts use.<br />
Canada—OEM<br />
73.7%<br />
74.0% 75.9% 75.0% 76.2% 74.6%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Aftermarket Parts Use in Dollars<br />
Canada—Aftermarket<br />
Aftermarket parts use in Canada rose slightly compared to Q1-2008 but has remained<br />
fairly consistent for over two years.<br />
10.9%<br />
10.7% 10.2% 11.0% 10.7% 11.3%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Remanufactured Parts Use in Dollars<br />
Canada—Non-New/Remanufactured<br />
Remanufactured parts use in Canada was 3.5% for Q1-2009, compared to 3.38% in<br />
Q1-2008.<br />
3.6%<br />
3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.5%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
Like Kind and Quality Parts Use in Dollars<br />
LKQ parts use in Canada have rebounded slightly in the first quarter of 2009.<br />
Canada—LKQ<br />
11.9%<br />
11.7% 10.6% 10.6% 10.0% 10.6%<br />
Q3/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q1/09<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 28
Casualty Statistics<br />
Personal Injury Protection (PIP)<br />
During the fourth quarter of 2008, the 12-month rolling average for countrywide Personal<br />
Injury Protection claims (as calculated from the percentage of such claims reported per 100<br />
insured exposures) was 1.35, and the average claim severity was $8,517.<br />
2.0%<br />
1.5%<br />
1.0%<br />
0.5%<br />
0%<br />
$8,500<br />
$8,000<br />
$7,500<br />
$7,000<br />
$6,500<br />
$6,000<br />
$5,500<br />
$5,000<br />
$4,500<br />
Bodily Injury<br />
As of the fourth quarter of 2008, the 12-month rolling average for countrywide bodily injury<br />
paid claim frequency was .91—up from the previous 12-month rolling total of .90 and yet<br />
still lower than the other reported quarters in 2007.<br />
0.96%<br />
0.95%<br />
0.94%<br />
0.93%<br />
0.92%<br />
0.91%<br />
0.90%<br />
0.89%<br />
0%<br />
Countrywide PIP Frequency<br />
1.44 1.41 1.38 1.31 1.35<br />
Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008<br />
Countrywide PIP Severity<br />
$7,767 $7,837 $8,036 $8,397<br />
Countrywide BI Frequency<br />
0.96<br />
0.95<br />
0.94<br />
0.90<br />
$8,517<br />
Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008<br />
0.91<br />
Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008<br />
Editors Note: All information depicted<br />
here is based on the most recent and<br />
available ISS (formerly PCIAA) Fast<br />
Track data, reported one quarter in<br />
arrears.<br />
About <strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical…<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Medical division has<br />
20+ years experience delivering<br />
successful technology, database, and<br />
service solutions for collision-injury<br />
claim handling that are accurate and<br />
efficient. <strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical is proud to<br />
serve many of the top P&C Insurers<br />
using both enterprise-wide and<br />
standalone implementations.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical Decision Point ®<br />
facilitates 1st and 3rd party claimhandling<br />
by automating vital tasks,<br />
thus streamlining claim processing.<br />
Applying carrier-specific business<br />
procedures, claimant-specific<br />
treatment protocols, and <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s<br />
industry acumen, the majority of<br />
claims are handled without human<br />
intervention from first notice of loss<br />
through payment. Exceptions are<br />
handled via automated assignment to<br />
the appropriate subject matter expert<br />
(nurse reviewer, special investigator,<br />
experienced adjuster). Decision Point<br />
monitors compliance with federal<br />
and state regulations, and includes<br />
powerful analytic capabilities for<br />
predictive modeling and performance<br />
management.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical’s extensive customer<br />
service infrastructure provides clients<br />
with training, plus systems, content,<br />
regulatory, and litigation support,<br />
process consulting, and outsource<br />
service options.<br />
$12,500<br />
$12,000<br />
$11,500<br />
$11,000<br />
$10,500<br />
$10,000<br />
$9,500<br />
$9,000<br />
$8,500<br />
$8,000<br />
$7,500<br />
$7,000<br />
Countrywide BI Severity<br />
$11,215 $11,373 $11,510 $12,028 $12,434<br />
Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008<br />
To learn more about <strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical<br />
and its casualty solutions, visit<br />
www.mitchell.com, or contact:<br />
Jeff Pirino<br />
Vice President of Casualty Sales<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical<br />
Jeff.Pirino@mitchell.com<br />
t: 858-368-8381<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 29
About <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
9889 Willow Creek Rd. – San Diego, CA 92131 – 858.368.7000<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc., founded in 1946 and headquartered in San Diego, California,<br />
is a leading provider of information and workflow solutions to the automotive insurance<br />
and collision repair industries, serving carriers, shops, and other commercial participants in<br />
the physical damage, auto-related and workers’ compensation medical claims processes.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> facilitates millions of electronic transactions between more than 25,000 business<br />
partners each month to enhance their productivity, profitability, and customer satisfaction.<br />
From the moment policyholders notify their insurance companies of a vehicle claim,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s state-of-the-art solutions go into action throughout the entire claims and repair<br />
cycle. <strong>Mitchell</strong> provides the information and workflow management expertise insurers and<br />
collision repair shops rely upon to serve their customers. From initial damage appraisal to<br />
helping collision repairers return vehicles to pre-accident condition, from shop management<br />
to salvage, claims review to subrogation, <strong>Mitchell</strong> is there to ensure every aspect of the<br />
industry has the tools it needs to get the job done.<br />
All <strong>Mitchell</strong> collision solutions are backed by <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s industry-leading Parts & Labor<br />
Database—the most accurate and comprehensive source for vehicle information available<br />
anywhere—which also includes specialty lines such as motorcycles, recreational vehicles,<br />
and watercraft. The <strong>Mitchell</strong> Database stands as a critical point of connectivity between<br />
shops and insurers, an unbiased resource referenced by all industry participants as a basis<br />
for resolving collision claims consistently and accurately.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> is a privately-held company, owned primarily by the Aurora Capital<br />
Group. Aurora Capital is a Los Angeles-based investment firm formed in 1991 that acquires<br />
and builds companies in partnership with operating management. The firm currently<br />
manages approximately $2 billion in capital and is committed to investing in companies<br />
with unique, defensible market positions. Aurora is dedicated to generating long-term value<br />
principally through investing the time and resources necessary to enhance the fundamentals<br />
of each of its businesses.<br />
For more information on <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, visit www.mitchell.com.<br />
For more information on Aurora Capital, please visit its website: www.auroracap.com.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 30
<strong>Mitchell</strong> News Releases Q1-2009<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> 2009 Auto Collision Road Show Kicks Off In Los Angeles Area and<br />
Includes Additional Cities<br />
This year’s Road Show includes practical insight to help shops increase business<br />
performance in today’s challenging economic climate<br />
San Diego, CA – March 18, 2009 – <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> Inc., a leading provider of<br />
information, workflow, and performance management solutions to the collision claims and<br />
repair industries, today announced that its fifth annual Road Show will be held from March<br />
24th to October 7th. The 2009 Road Show will visit 12 cities, making its first stop in the<br />
greater Los Angeles area on March 24th, followed by Dallas, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Chicago,<br />
Denver, Detroit, St. Louis, San Diego, Fort Lauderdale, Caguas (Puerto Rico), and Toronto<br />
(Canada).<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Road Show is designed to educate autobody repair shops on the latest trends,<br />
best practices, tools, and techniques for optimizing business performance. Every year, the<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> team puts together a roster of timely and informative programs, which includes<br />
the most sought after guest speakers who discuss topics that are top of mind for collision<br />
repairers and offer insight to help repair shops provide quality services, increase customer<br />
satisfaction and grow their business. The Road Show event is a once-a-year opportunity<br />
for shop owners and managers to network, share best practices and hear from respected<br />
industry experts and several of <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s business partners. This year’s Road Show events<br />
will include sessions from select <strong>Mitchell</strong> paint partners.<br />
“The Road Show events play a key role in our commitment to the collision repair industry—a<br />
practice were proud to continue,” said Jason Bertellotti, <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s Vice President of Repair<br />
Solutions. “In these challenging economic times, the demand to operate more efficiently<br />
is more intense than ever, and we’re confident that repairers will benefit from the industryspecific<br />
knowledge discussed at these sessions.”<br />
Commenting on last year’s Road Show event, Dennis Carrillo, owner of Foothill Auto Body<br />
in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., said, “The <strong>Mitchell</strong> Road Show gave me a chance to learn<br />
how some of the market trends are affecting our industry, the things I can do to address<br />
the challenges I face, and valuable insight into where <strong>Mitchell</strong> is going. I highly recommend<br />
attending.”<br />
Collision repairers who would like more information or are interested in attending, are<br />
encouraged to visit www.mitchellroadshow.com.<br />
The 2009 Road Show will cover a range of topics, including:<br />
• Managing for Profit<br />
• <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
• New <strong>Mitchell</strong> Solutions and Innovation<br />
• A Look Inside the <strong>Mitchell</strong> Database<br />
• Estimating for Accuracy<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Moves On and Moves Ahead!<br />
Company is energized and focused on providing solutions that promote collaboration<br />
among industry partners<br />
San Diego, CA – March 13th, 2009 – <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc., a leading provider of<br />
information, workflow and performance management solutions to the Property & Casualty<br />
claims and vehicle repair industries, today announced its path forward after discontinuing<br />
the merger review proceedings with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).<br />
“Our team is excited to expand upon the momentum we have created in the market,” said<br />
Alex Sun, President and CEO of <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>. “We delivered a number of exciting<br />
new products in 2008 and have even more in store for 2009 as we continue to execute our<br />
THE 2009 ROAD SHOW SCHEDULE IN<br />
CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:<br />
Tuesday, March 24th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Los Angeles Area<br />
Dave and Buster’s, The Block at Orange<br />
Wednesday, April 8th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Dallas, TX<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Central Dallas<br />
Thursday, April 23rd, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Pittsburgh, PA<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Homestead<br />
Wednesday, May 6th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Atlanta, GA<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Marietta<br />
Tuesday, May 12th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Chicago, IL<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Goldcoast<br />
Tuesday, June 9th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Denver, CO<br />
Dave and Buster’s<br />
Thursday, June 18th, 6:00-9:00 p.m.<br />
Detroit, MI<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Utica<br />
Wednesday, July 15th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
St. Louis, MO<br />
Dave and Buster’s<br />
Tuesday, July 21st, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
San Diego, CA<br />
Dave and Buster’s<br />
Wednesday, September 16th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Ft. Lauderdale, FL<br />
Dave and Buster’s, Hollywood<br />
Wednesday, September 23rd, 6:00-9:00 p.m.<br />
Caguas, Puerto Rico<br />
Four Points by Sheraton Caguas Real Hotel<br />
& Casino<br />
Wednesday, October 7th, 6:00-10:00 p.m.<br />
Toronto, Canada<br />
Dave and Buster’s Concord<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 31
<strong>Mitchell</strong> News Releases Q1-2009 (con’t.)<br />
vision of enabling partners to more easily connect and collaborate both inside and outside<br />
their traditional boundaries.”<br />
Over the past year, top tier insurance carriers have selected <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s WorkCenter <br />
to unify core components of their claims process—from assignment and dispatching to<br />
estimating and uploading of claims for review, to performing total loss valuations and reinspections,<br />
and finally, approving claims for payment. The WorkCenter provides a single<br />
unified workspace built upon next generation technologies that allow carriers to seamlessly<br />
interact and streamline workflows. “We are encouraged that the <strong>Mitchell</strong> WorkCenter is<br />
receiving such a positive reception from our customers and we are excited to expand upon<br />
this success with major enhancements planned across all modules in 2009,” said Marc<br />
Brungger, Executive Vice President, Auto Physical Damage, <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>.<br />
With respect to the collision repair market, <strong>Mitchell</strong> will launch UltraMate ® 7 and a new<br />
version of ABS Enterprise. Each of these new releases will deliver dramatic improvement<br />
in product usability and shop efficiency. The company is also announcing the launch of the<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> RepairCenter —a next generation repair-focused collaborative workspace—at<br />
NACE 2009. <strong>Mitchell</strong> intends to share RepairCenter with select customers in the coming<br />
months.<br />
In terms of casualty products, <strong>Mitchell</strong> continues to lead the auto casualty and workers<br />
compensation industries with its Decision Point ® , SmartAdvisor and ClaimIQ suite of<br />
solutions. “We are intensely focused on developing solutions that address the full spectrum<br />
of casualty claims,” said Dave Torrence, Senior Vice President, <strong>Mitchell</strong> Medical. <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
will launch next generation versions of Decision Point and ClaimIQ, and has been selected<br />
by several large insurers for its fully compliant e-billing and payment solution to ensure<br />
compliance in states, such as Minnesota. It has also recently expanded its suite of provider<br />
network services to create the most comprehensive network coverage across the country.<br />
These development plans are the product of an invigorated company that is investing<br />
aggressively in research and development on the heels of the company’s best financial<br />
performance in its 63-year history. “<strong>Mitchell</strong> is as strong as ever, and I attribute that to<br />
maintaining great relationships with our valued partners,” remarked Sun. “Our product teams<br />
are extremely energized about executing our vision, and as always, our sales and service<br />
teams are committed to upholding our proud tradition of service excellence,” he added.<br />
Mercury Insurance Signs Multi-Year Contract Extension with <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
Top insurer extends relationship and migrates to <strong>Mitchell</strong> WorkCenter to improve claims<br />
efficiency and policyholder satisfaction<br />
San Diego, CA – March 03, 2009 – <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> Inc., a leading provider of<br />
information, workflow and performance management solutions to the collision claims and<br />
repair industries, today announced that Mercury Insurance has extended and expanded<br />
its relationship with <strong>Mitchell</strong> to provide claims processing solutions. Under terms of the<br />
deal, Mercury will migrate to <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s next generation physical damage claims processing<br />
solution, WorkCenter , which includes Total Loss Valuation, claims management and<br />
reporting components.<br />
“<strong>Mitchell</strong> has been a valuable strategic partner of Mercury’s for over 15 years, and we<br />
are pleased to expand our relationship to include the WorkCenter suite of solutions,” said<br />
Mike Hall, Mercury’s Vice President of Material Damage.”WorkCenter will help streamline<br />
the claims and settlement processes, allowing us to provide an even better customer<br />
experience.”<br />
“We are excited to continue our relationship with Mercury Insurance on this expanded basis,”<br />
said Alex Sun, <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “WorkCenter is a highly<br />
flexible and configurable solution that will allow claims personnel to efficiently complete their<br />
tasks through a single work space.”<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 32
<strong>Mitchell</strong> News Releases Q1-2009 (con’t.)<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> Achieves Record Revenues in 2008<br />
Company’s strong performance achieves record revenues and customer wins and sets new<br />
performance benchmarks<br />
San Diego, CA – February 24, 2009 – <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong> Inc., a leading provider of<br />
information, workflow and performance management solutions to the property and casualty<br />
claims and collision repair industries, today announced record business performance<br />
results for 2008. <strong>Mitchell</strong> grew revenue by over 15% on a year-over-year basis and is on<br />
pace to achieve similar growth in 2009—with sales expected to exceed a quarter of a billion<br />
dollars ($250 million). Moreover, <strong>Mitchell</strong> made substantial gains in new customer additions<br />
who chose <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s industry-leading solutions to boost operational efficiency, enhance<br />
customer service, and improve productivity. As an example, in 2008 alone <strong>Mitchell</strong> added<br />
over 2,500 new collision repair shops to its network.<br />
“We are proud of our strong performance in 2008—especially given the challenges<br />
presented by the economy,” said Alex Sun, President and CEO, <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>. “The<br />
fact that <strong>Mitchell</strong> achieved balanced growth across its key business lines was especially<br />
encouraging.” <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s physical damage business benefitted from a number of product<br />
lines—WorkCenter Total Loss, WorkCenter Dispatch and ABS Enterprise each more<br />
than doubled revenue year over year, and AutocheX grew by 20%. On the Casualty side,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> continued its history of success of high double-digit growth with adoption of its 3rd<br />
party (ClaimIQ) and payment solutions. Sun added, “As our business results demonstrate,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> was, and is, firing on all cylinders—with even more powerful momentum and results<br />
expected in 2009.”<br />
In 2008 <strong>Mitchell</strong> also maintained an ambitious pace of investment in product development to<br />
fulfill its vision of elevating the level of collaboration between insurance carriers and collision<br />
repairers and introducing innovations for claims automation and performance. “Thanks to<br />
the tireless efforts of our over 1,300 dedicated colleagues and the continued support of our<br />
customer base, <strong>Mitchell</strong> is stronger than it has ever been,” added Sun.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 33
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Brand Advertising at Work<br />
Over the last year, <strong>Mitchell</strong> has been delivering significant product enhancements—as well<br />
as new product innovations—that continue to delight and meet the needs of our customers.<br />
During that time, we never took our eyes off our vision to propel our customers to the next<br />
level of success with our next generation solutions, like <strong>Mitchell</strong> WorkCenter for example.<br />
With the merger behind us, it’s time to let the market know this is the best time to be a<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> customer and what “MOVING AHEAD” with <strong>Mitchell</strong> really means. This is the first<br />
in a series of advertisements appearing in both insurance and collision repair publications.<br />
MITCHELL. MOVING AHEAD.<br />
THE MITCHELL “BREAKAWAY” SEQUENCE<br />
HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY ENGAGED.<br />
We’re propelling our loyal customers, along with the entire<br />
marketplace, on an accelerated ride of innovation and partnership<br />
that has one ultimate destination — your success.<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> is the company delivering product innovations<br />
in 2009 that are guaranteed to blow your hair back!<br />
Move On. Move Ahead. This is the best time to be a <strong>Mitchell</strong> customer.<br />
(866) 655-2544 or mitchell.com<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 34
<strong>Mitchell</strong> Brand Advertising at Work (con’t.)<br />
Supporting the <strong>Mitchell</strong> SmartAdvisor Solutions presence at the RIMS 2009 Annual<br />
Conference & Exhibition in Orlando on April 19-23, (Risk and Insurance Management<br />
Society, Inc. ® ), are a series of advertisements that ask a simple question (“SMART?”) about<br />
whether it’s “smart” to use any other solution than <strong>Mitchell</strong>’s SmartAdvisor for your<br />
workers’ compensation medical bill review and processing needs. As you can see below,<br />
the shark feeder is being very smart when SmartAdvisor is the solution. The ad series and<br />
the <strong>Mitchell</strong> exhibit booth use imagery of some of the most risky job professions.<br />
S MART S O LUTI O N S FO R WO R KE R S’ C O M PE N SATI O N M E D I CAL B I LL R EVI EW & PR O C E SS I N G<br />
SMART?<br />
It’s smart when SmartAdvisor from <strong>Mitchell</strong> is<br />
your workers’ compensation solution.<br />
Take a huge chomp out of your savings leakage<br />
with this high-performance workers’ comp solution.<br />
It’s simply an efficient, waste-killing machine. Get<br />
SmartAdvisor—now from <strong>Mitchell</strong>.<br />
Visit <strong>Mitchell</strong> SmartAdvisor at Booth #129 at the RIMS 2009 Conference in Orlando, April 19-23, 2009.<br />
<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> SmartAdvisor<br />
Contact <strong>Mitchell</strong> SmartAdvisor for workers’ compensation solutions: (800) 421-6705 or at mitchell.com<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report 35
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
Report<br />
Volume Nine Number Two<br />
Q2 2009<br />
Published by <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
The <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report is a quarterly snapshot<br />
of the auto physical damage collision and casualty<br />
industries. Just inside—the economy, industry<br />
highlights, plus illuminating statistics and measures,<br />
and more. Stay informed on ongoing and emerging<br />
trends impacting the industry, and you, with the<br />
<strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report!<br />
Questions or comments about the <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong><br />
Report may be directed to:<br />
Greg Horn<br />
Editor in Chief, Vice President of <strong>Industry</strong> Relations<br />
greg.horn@mitchell.com<br />
For distribution and circulation questions, or requests<br />
for back issues, please contact:<br />
Regina Merkey<br />
Managing Editor, Sr. Marketing Communications<br />
Specialist<br />
Distribution and Circulation<br />
(858) 368-7790<br />
e-mail: regina.merkey@mitchell.com<br />
For data analytics, please contact:<br />
Gail Sloan<br />
Sr. Director of Business Development and Licensing<br />
(858) 368-7869<br />
e-mail: gail.sloan@mitchell.com<br />
The <strong>Industry</strong> <strong>Trends</strong> Report is published by <strong>Mitchell</strong><br />
<strong>International</strong>, Inc.<br />
The information contained in this publication was<br />
obtained from sources deemed reliable. However,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc. cannot guarantee the<br />
accuracy or completeness of the information provided.<br />
Original Cover Photography<br />
Jennifer Therieau, Senior Graphic Designer,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
Layout and Design<br />
Larry Barnett, Creative Director,<br />
<strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong><br />
©2009 <strong>Mitchell</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Inc. All rights reserved.