Willis Latest Model Development - Willis Research Network
Willis Latest Model Development - Willis Research Network
Willis Latest Model Development - Willis Research Network
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WILLIS RESEARCH<br />
NETWORK<br />
NATURAL HAZARDS SEMINAR<br />
18 th June 2013
AGENDA<br />
• INTRODUCTION TO THE WRN<br />
• INCREASING FREQUENCIES OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONES &<br />
EVALUATING HURRICANE SEASON PREDICTIONS<br />
• FOCUS ON UNMODELLED PERILS<br />
• The <strong>Willis</strong> Data Mart<br />
• Event Response<br />
• Global Flood Hazard<br />
• WILLIS LATEST MODEL DEVELOPMENT<br />
• South Africa Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Thailand Flood <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Central & Eastern European Flood <strong>Model</strong><br />
• CLOSING COMMENTS
Hélène Galy, Dr John Alarcon, Paul Jones, Matthew Eagle<br />
WILLIS LATEST MODEL<br />
DEVELOPMENT
<strong>Model</strong> development update<br />
2012 Q4<br />
2013 Q2<br />
2013 Q1<br />
2012 Q4<br />
Thailand Flood (JBA)<br />
2013 Q1<br />
Kuala Lumpur Flood<br />
South Africa Earthquake<br />
Global Flood Hazard Layers (Deltares)<br />
India Flood<br />
Australia Bushfire (Rating <strong>Model</strong>)<br />
2013 Q2<br />
Central and Eastern Europe Flood<br />
(CZ, AT, PL)<br />
Central and Eastern Europe Flood<br />
(HU, SK, SI, RO)<br />
European Hail<br />
<strong>Model</strong>s listed in BLUE indicates a model upgrade<br />
<strong>Model</strong>s listed in ORANGE indicates a new model<br />
4
John Alarcon<br />
EARTHQUAKE
<strong>Willis</strong> proprietary models -<br />
Earthquake
<strong>Willis</strong> proprietary models -<br />
Earthquake<br />
Proprietary <strong>Model</strong>s<br />
• Switzerland Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Turkey Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• South Africa Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Algeria Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Tunisia Earthquake <strong>Model</strong><br />
• Papua New Guinea Earthquake <strong>Model</strong>
Earthquake model for Algeria
Earthquake model for Tunisia
Earthquake model for South Africa
Earthquake model for South Africa<br />
Ground Motion Intensity
Paul Jones<br />
THAILAND FLOOD
Flooding in Thailand:<br />
Context<br />
Floods in Thailand in Oct – Dec 2011<br />
Mainly caused by monsoonal rains throughout<br />
the Chao-Phraya basin combined with typhoons<br />
Monthly totals for September and October were<br />
up to 2x 30-yr monthly means<br />
Issues of water management have been<br />
suggested as well<br />
Large number of industrial sites flooded<br />
despite “flood defences”<br />
Industry Loss Estimate: ~15bn USD
<strong>Willis</strong> Thailand Flood <strong>Model</strong><br />
Developed to meet <strong>Willis</strong> client needs to<br />
quantify the loss potential in Thailand due<br />
to flood<br />
JBA hydrological and hydraulic analysis<br />
(WRN Associate Member)<br />
<strong>Willis</strong> Built Environment <strong>Model</strong><br />
<strong>Willis</strong> custom flood vulnerability functions<br />
<strong>Willis</strong> modelling system eQUIP<br />
Flood risk view unique to <strong>Willis</strong>
Hydrological & Hydraulic<br />
Analyses<br />
JBA Risk Management responded to floods by<br />
developing a stochastic event set and hazard<br />
layers for Thailand<br />
Driven by their proprietary 2D modelling software<br />
JFLOW+<br />
Royal Thailand Irrigation Department maintains<br />
~850 flow gauges; 139 used on JBA hazard<br />
module<br />
Events are driven by volume of water rather than<br />
peak flows and represent the full 3-month<br />
monsoon season
Built Environment <strong>Model</strong><br />
During the 2011 floods, it was clear that most<br />
insurers did not have a good understanding of<br />
geocoding in Thailand<br />
Significant proportion of Overseas Incidental<br />
Exposures in established industrial estates<br />
<strong>Willis</strong> have undertaken a dedicated program to<br />
geocode these industrial estates<br />
Current engineering consultancy to map flood<br />
defences<br />
Built Environment <strong>Model</strong> built using recent<br />
Thailand Census data and satellite imagery
<strong>Willis</strong> Thailand Flood <strong>Model</strong><br />
Combines WRN research associate members expertise with <strong>Willis</strong><br />
proprietary modelling experience<br />
Quantifies the risk from catastrophic flooding losses in Thailand - only<br />
available to <strong>Willis</strong> clients<br />
Can be used to design reinsurance to mitigate natural catastrophe losses<br />
due to flooding in Thailand<br />
Used to contribute to discussions on natural catastrophe risk with<br />
reinsurers and rating agencies using <strong>Willis</strong> expertise<br />
Provides inputs to the <strong>Willis</strong> Re proprietary financial analysis platform iFM ®<br />
to assist in pricing and ERM applications
Matthew Eagle<br />
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN<br />
FLOOD
<strong>Model</strong> Vintage<br />
Flood events in 1997, 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2013 highlighted the need for a<br />
robust flood model across CEE<br />
The large flood event in 2002 changed the market<br />
2009<br />
Initial model<br />
release for AT &<br />
CZ<br />
2011<br />
Release of Pan-<br />
European Rainfall<br />
<strong>Model</strong> to account<br />
for localised losses<br />
2010<br />
Extension of<br />
model domain to<br />
include PL<br />
2012<br />
Upgrade to include<br />
demountable flood<br />
defence structures in<br />
Prague
<strong>Model</strong> Upgrade &<br />
Extension<br />
In Q2 2013, <strong>Willis</strong> will release an upgrade and<br />
extension to the current CEE Flood <strong>Model</strong> that will:<br />
Increase the modelled river and gauging station networks<br />
in Austria, Czech Republic and Poland<br />
Extend the model domain to Danube River basin<br />
• Bosnia, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia &<br />
Romania<br />
Inclusion of demountable and permanent defence<br />
structures<br />
Significant data and expertise input from WRN partners<br />
FLUVIUS, University of Bristol and Newcastle University
Hazard<br />
WRN member Dr Francesco Serinaldi at<br />
Newcastle University has created a stochastic<br />
rainfall model for Danube River catchment<br />
<strong>Willis</strong> using techniques developed by Dr Serinaldi to<br />
develop stochastic event set for modelling entire<br />
region<br />
Using HEC-RAS modelling software to explicitly<br />
model flood extents and depths for all<br />
catchments >50km 2<br />
HEC-RAS 1D modelling software developed by<br />
USACE allows modelling over large areas<br />
Significantly increase the modelled river network<br />
from previous model releases
Flood Defences<br />
Influence of permanent and mountable defences across Austria, Czech<br />
Republic is significant<br />
During 2013 event, many mountable flood defence structures were surveyed for<br />
inclusion in the model
<strong>Model</strong> Validation<br />
Detailed model validation using historical flood events<br />
Satellite-derived flood extents (e.g. PERILS extent 2013)<br />
Historical market and client losses (e.g. AXCO)<br />
Historical Flood Events in Central and Eastern<br />
Europe<br />
Country Year Date Insured loss<br />
Austria 2002 Aug USD 337 mn<br />
Czech Republic 2002 Aug USD 1,130 mn<br />
Romania 2005 4 events USD 20 mn<br />
Slovenia 2010 17-19 Sept USD 20-26 mn<br />
Slovakia 2010 May & June >USD 50 mn<br />
Poland 2010 May & June USD 540 mn<br />
Hungary 2010 May - Sept USD 120 mn
CONTACT US<br />
<strong>Willis</strong> <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Network</strong><br />
Rowan Douglas - Chairman of the WRN<br />
Hélène Galy – Managing Director, WRN<br />
helene.galy@willis.com<br />
Nigel Davis - Managing Director, WRN<br />
nigel.davis@willis.com<br />
Stuart Calam - Programme Manager, WRN<br />
stuart.calam@willis.com<br />
Dr. Tim Fewtrell - Chief Hydrologist, WRN<br />
Timothy.fewtrell@willis.com<br />
Geoff Saville – Chief Meteorologist, WRN<br />
Geoffrey.saville@willis.com<br />
www.willisresearchnetwork.com
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