CONFERENCE PREVIEW - Predictive Analytics World
CONFERENCE PREVIEW - Predictive Analytics World
CONFERENCE PREVIEW - Predictive Analytics World
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part of<br />
MARCH 4 - 10, 2012 ● SAN FRANCISCO, CA<br />
<strong>CONFERENCE</strong> <strong>PREVIEW</strong><br />
www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012<br />
KEYNOTE SPEAKERS<br />
Piyanka Jain<br />
CEO, Aryng.com<br />
Former PayPal Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />
Anne Robinson<br />
Director of Supply Chain Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Verizon Wireless<br />
Eric Siegel<br />
Conference Chair<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />
PRODUCED BY
An Invitation<br />
Dear Analytical Innovators and Practitioners,<br />
I invite you to join us this March in San Francisco for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>, the business-focused event, loaded with<br />
predictive analytics case studies, expertise and resources. This conference brings professionals and experts together in<br />
order to keep predictive analytics deployment moving forward, strengthening the impact it delivers and establishing new<br />
opportunities.<br />
PAW’s San Francisco 2012 program features over 40 sessions across two tracks - an “All Audiences” and an “Expert/<br />
Practitioner” track -- so you can witness how predictive analytics is applied at enterprises such as Altos Research, Alberta<br />
Motor Association, Broadspire, CompassLabs , Hewlett Packard, Interclick, Kelley Blue Book, LinkedIn, MLB, NFL, NBA,<br />
Pfizer, Sisters of Mercy Health Systems, Social Media Research Foundation, University of Phoenix, Volunteers of America,<br />
Wells Fargo, Yahoo!, YMCA, ZZAlpha, California General Underwriters Insurance Company, an IT support firm and a<br />
sales workforce, real-world examples in Financial Services, Emergency Response, true-to-life anecdotes based on misc.<br />
enterprise successes plus insights from projects for Anheuser-Busch, Dept. Homeland Security, and US Postal Service<br />
Office of Inspector General.<br />
PAW’s March agenda covers hot topics and advanced methods such as agile analytics, behavior-based advertising,<br />
blackbox trading, branch location assessment, churn modeling, clinical healthcare, cloud analytics, crowdsourcing predictive<br />
analytics, econometric indicators, education, enterprise-wide analytics, forecasting, HR analytics, insurance, list sourcing,<br />
non-profits, online marketing, real estate market scoring, risk management, social data, sports analytics, targeting direct<br />
marketing, uplift modeling, and other innovative applications that benefit organizations in new and creative ways..<br />
Join PAW and access our premier keynotes, sessions, workshops, exposition, expert panel, live demos, networking coffee<br />
breaks, and reception.<br />
Eric Siegel Ph.D.<br />
Program Chair<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />
New to <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
If you’re new to the field, kicking off a new initiative, or exploring new ways to position it at your organization, there’s<br />
no better place to get your bearings than <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>. See what other companies are doing, witness<br />
vendor demos, participate in discussions with the experts, network with your colleagues and weigh your options!<br />
Access the free online <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> Guide: www.pawcon.com/guide<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 1 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Agenda Overview<br />
for all levels<br />
for expert/Practitioners<br />
Sunday, March 4, 2012<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
Full-Day Workshop<br />
R for <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling: A Hands-On Introduction s<br />
Max Kuhn, Director, Nonclinical Statistics, Pfizer<br />
DAY 1: Monday, March 5, 2012<br />
8:00-9:00am<br />
9:00-9:45am<br />
9:45-10:05am<br />
10:05-10:10am<br />
10:10-10:40am<br />
Registration & Breakfast<br />
Keynote<br />
Persuasion by the Numbers: Optimize Marketing Influence by Predicting It<br />
Eric Siegel, Program Chair, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />
Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
Track 1: All Levels<br />
Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />
10:40-11:00am<br />
11:05-11:25am<br />
Case Study: Five Growth Scenarios<br />
for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud l<br />
James Taylor, Decision Management Solutions<br />
Crowdsourcing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Wikipedia l<br />
Solving the Last Mile:<br />
Focusing Global Intelligence on Your Data<br />
Mehul Patel, Kaggle<br />
Case Study from<br />
s<br />
Dean Abbott, Abbott <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
11:30am-<br />
12:15pm<br />
Special Plenary Session<br />
Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Dept. Homeland Security,<br />
& US Postal Service Office of Inspector General<br />
Becoming an Ace with a Robot as your Wingman<br />
John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc.<br />
12:15-12:20pm<br />
12:20-12:40pm<br />
12:40-1:40pm<br />
1:40-2:25pm<br />
2:25-2:35pm<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor Presentations<br />
Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />
Special Plenary Session<br />
Consumer Applications Identity Wars: The Battle to Control Personal Data<br />
Andreas Weigend, weigend.com, Former Chief Scientist, Amazon.com<br />
Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 2 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Agenda Overview<br />
2:35-2:45pm<br />
Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />
2:50-3:10pm<br />
3:15-3:35pm<br />
Track 1: All Levels<br />
Thought Leadership<br />
Case Study: CA General Underwriters Insurance l<br />
Seize the Competitive Future through a<br />
Shared Vision for Value Creation,<br />
Quality Management & Collaboration<br />
Arnold Goodman, Collaborative Data Solutions<br />
& Stephanie Behnke, CA General<br />
Underwriters Insurance<br />
Insurance<br />
Case Study: Alberta Motor Association l<br />
Insurance Pricing Models using<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Richard Boire, Boire Filler Group<br />
Insurance<br />
Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />
Real Estate Market Scoring<br />
Case Study: Altos Research s<br />
There & Back Again: Model Interpretability<br />
in Real Estate Market Scoring<br />
Ben Gimpert, Altos Research<br />
Branch Location Assessment<br />
Case Study: YMCA s<br />
Using Probabilistic Computing<br />
to Optimize YMCA Branch Site Locations<br />
Bill Lazarus, Seer<strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Sponsored Lab<br />
3:40-4:00pm<br />
4:00-4:35pm<br />
4:35-4:55pm<br />
5:00-5:20pm<br />
5:25-5:45pm<br />
5:50-6:10pm<br />
6:10-7:30pm<br />
7:30-10:00pm<br />
Case Study: Broadspire l<br />
The First 24 Hours: Understanding New Claims<br />
Gary Anderberg, Broadspire<br />
& Sergo Grigalashvili, Crawford & Company<br />
Econometric Indicators<br />
Case Study: LinkedIn l<br />
Econometric Applications & Extracting<br />
Economic Insights from the LinkedIn Dataset<br />
Scott Nicholson, LinkedIn<br />
Forecasting<br />
Case Study: Wells Fargo Securities<br />
Macroeconomic Forecasting, Consensus &<br />
Individual Forecaster: A Real-Time Approach l<br />
Azhar Iqbal, Wells Fargo Securities<br />
Social Data<br />
Case Study: Social Media Research Foundation l<br />
Crowd Photography for Social Media<br />
Marc Smith, Social Media Research Foundation<br />
Social Data<br />
Case Study: Real-world examples in<br />
Financial Services, Emergency Response l<br />
Exploring Social Data: Use Cases for<br />
Real-<strong>World</strong> Application<br />
Chris Moody, Gnip<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
Reception / Exhibits<br />
Bay Area SAS Users Group Meeting<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo s<br />
Net Lift Modeling<br />
Case Study: Market Share Partners s<br />
Response Modeling is the Wrong Modeling:<br />
Maximize Impact With Uplift Modeling<br />
Kim Larsen, Market Share Partners<br />
Behavior-Based Advertising<br />
Case Study: Yahoo! s<br />
How to Get the Exact Same Online<br />
Display Advertising Results with<br />
Only 55% of the Spending<br />
Liwei Ma, Big Fish Games<br />
Behavior-Based Advertising<br />
Case Study: CompassLabs s<br />
Prediction and Optimization Models<br />
for Online Display Advertising<br />
Mahesh Kumar, Tiger <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Behavior-Based Advertising<br />
Case Study: Interclick Data s<br />
Data, Data Everywhere: Navigating the<br />
Digital Ecosystem with <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Yuan Ren, Interclick<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 3 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Agenda Overview<br />
8:00-9:00am<br />
9:00-9:45am<br />
9:45-10:05am<br />
10:05-10:35am<br />
10:35-11:20am<br />
11:20-11:40am<br />
11:45am-12:30pm<br />
12:30-1:30pm<br />
1:30-2:15pm<br />
2:15-2:20pm<br />
2:20-2:25pm<br />
2:30-2:50pm<br />
DAY 2: Tuesday, March 6, 2012<br />
Registration & Breakfast<br />
Keynote<br />
Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />
Anne Robinson, Director of Supply Chain Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />
Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
Expert Panel<br />
Wise Enterprise: Best Practices for Managing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor Presentations<br />
Track 1: All Levels<br />
Sponsored Lab<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo l<br />
Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />
Keynote<br />
The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />
Sponsored Lab<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo s<br />
Piyanka Jain, CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />
Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Major League Baseball l<br />
MLB Pitchers: A Look at the Numbers<br />
Bartev Vartanian, Dataspora<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
Retaining Subscribers<br />
Case Study: True-to-Life Anecdotes Based on<br />
Misc. Enterprise Successes Subscription s<br />
Survival Modeling for Fun & Profit<br />
Jim Porzak, Viadeo<br />
2:55-3:15pm<br />
Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: NFL, MLB, & NBA l<br />
Competing & Winning with Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Benjamin Alamar, Menlo College<br />
HR <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: An IT Support Firm &<br />
a Sales Workforce s<br />
Creating an Engaged Workforce<br />
using Statistical Learning<br />
Salman Taherian, Kasra Technologies<br />
3:15-3:55pm<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 4 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Agenda Overview<br />
3:55-4:15pm<br />
4:20-4:40pm<br />
4:45-5:05pm<br />
5:10-5:30pm<br />
Track 1: All Levels<br />
Enterprise-Wide <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Hewlett Packard Global <strong>Analytics</strong> l<br />
Institutionalization of Enterprise Wide<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong> to Help Organizations Make Better<br />
Decisions, Faster<br />
Rohit Tandon, Hewlett Packard<br />
Education<br />
Case Study: University of Phoenix l<br />
Predicting Student Success<br />
Rebecca Barber, University of Phoenix<br />
Agile <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Kelley Blue Book l<br />
Agile <strong>Analytics</strong>: Model Development in<br />
an Agile Environment<br />
Shawn Hushman, Kelley Blue Book<br />
Non-Profit<br />
Case Study: Volunteers of America, Chesapeake l<br />
Turning Operational Outcome Metrics into<br />
an Actionable <strong>Predictive</strong> Forecasting Model<br />
Shyam Desigan, Volunteers of America, Chesapeake<br />
Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />
Healthcare <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Pfizer s<br />
Right Medicine Right Patient<br />
Max Kuhn, Pfizer<br />
Clinical Healthcare<br />
Case Study: Sisters of Mercy Health Systems s<br />
Framework for Detection of Clinical<br />
States & Disease Onset Using Electronic<br />
Health Record (EHR) Data<br />
Jeni Fan, Booz Allen Hamilton<br />
Fraud Detection<br />
TBA Session on Fraud Detection s<br />
Antonia de Medinaceli, Elder Research, Inc.<br />
Blackbox Trading<br />
Case Study: ZZAlpha s<br />
Effective Market Forecasting<br />
in 5 Key Dimensions<br />
Kevin Pratt, ZZAlpha<br />
Wednesday, March 7, 2012<br />
Full-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
The Best & the Worst of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>:<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling Methods & Common Data Mining Mistakes s<br />
John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc<br />
Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />
Full-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am–4:30pm<br />
Business Friendly Data Mining with Decision Management l<br />
James Taylor, CEO, Decision Management Solutions<br />
Friday, March 9 and Saturday, March 10, 2012<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
Two-Day Workshop<br />
Net Lift Models: Optimizing the Impact of Your Marketing s<br />
Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical Insights, Market Shares Partners<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 5 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
Monday, March 5, 2012<br />
9:45am-7:30pm<br />
Exhibit Hall Open<br />
8:00-9:00am<br />
Registration & Breakfast<br />
9:00-9:45am<br />
Keynote<br />
Persuasion by the Numbers:<br />
Optimize Marketing Influence by<br />
Predicting It<br />
Data driven marketing decisions are meant to maximize<br />
impact - right Well, the only way to optimize marketing<br />
influence is to predict it. The analytical method to do this<br />
is called uplift modeling. This is a completely different<br />
animal from what most models predict: customer<br />
behavior. Instead, uplift models predict the influence on<br />
customer behavior gained by choosing one marketing<br />
action over another. The good news is case studies show<br />
ROI going where it has never gone before. The bad<br />
news You need a control set... But you should have<br />
been using one anyway! The crazy part is that “marketing<br />
influence” can never be observed for any one customer,<br />
since it literally involves the inner workings of the<br />
customer’s central nervous system. If influence can’t be<br />
observed, how can we possibly model and predict it<br />
Speaker: Eric Siegel, Program Chair, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
<strong>World</strong><br />
9:45-10:05am<br />
Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />
10:05-10:10am<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
10:15-10:40am<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
for all levels<br />
for expert/Practitioners<br />
10:40-11:00am<br />
l Track 1: <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />
Case Study: Five Growth Scenarios<br />
for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> analytics and cloud technologies are hot topics<br />
individually, but how can you use them together In this<br />
session industry expert James Taylor will discuss the use<br />
cases for predictive analytics in the cloud. He will show<br />
how companies at every stage of analytic sophistication<br />
can use cloud-based predictive analytic approaches,<br />
discuss the value propositions of the different use cases,<br />
outline the pros and cons of predictive analytics in<br />
the cloud, and present results from a recent survey on<br />
people’s attitudes to these exciting technologies.<br />
Speaker: James Taylor, CEO, Decision Management<br />
Solutions<br />
10:40-11:25am<br />
s Track 2: Case Study<br />
Speaker: Dean Abbott, President, Abbott <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
11:05-11:25am<br />
l Track 1: Crowdsourcing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Wikipedia<br />
Solving the Last Mile: Focusing<br />
Global Intelligence on Your Data<br />
As companies gather and collect more and more data<br />
across their organizations, the “last mile” of actionable<br />
insights based on that data has become increasingly<br />
crucial to success. Public contests provide a potent,<br />
rapidly expanded means to facilitate vastly better<br />
predictions for your companies, by accessing over 16,000<br />
leading data scientists around the world who compete<br />
to produce the best results for any given data problem.<br />
By correcting the existing mismatch between companies<br />
needing better predictions and data scientists wanting<br />
access to the most challenging problems and real world<br />
data, public competition proves over and over to be a<br />
“win-win-win”.<br />
Speaker: Mehul Patel, Chief Operating Officer, Kaggle<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 6 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
11:30am-12:15pm<br />
Special Plenary Session<br />
Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Dept.<br />
Homeland Security, & US Postal<br />
Service Office of Inspector General<br />
Becoming an Ace with a Robot as<br />
your Wingman<br />
Humans and computers have strengths that are more<br />
complementary than alike – to the point where a<br />
sophisticated algorithm may be the best “2nd person”<br />
to put on a complex task. By contrasting natural and<br />
artificial intelligence we will explore how to optimize the<br />
man/machine partnership.<br />
Speaker: John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc.<br />
12:15-12:20pm<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
12:20-12:40pm<br />
Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor<br />
Presentations<br />
12:40-1:40pm<br />
Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />
1:40-2:25pm<br />
Special Plenary Session - Consumer<br />
Applications<br />
Identity Wars: The Battle to Control<br />
Personal Data<br />
Personal data is the doppelganger of the consumer,<br />
her very identity as a commercial being. Open the<br />
floodgates, as most of the vast quantities of enterprise<br />
data generated each day is - one way or another –<br />
personal; data that’s transactional, social, local, mobile<br />
and on and on.<br />
As the leading players jockey for position, control is the<br />
name of the game, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.<br />
We are early in the process of establishing a consumer<br />
identity ecosystem, standing on the cusp of major<br />
developments. New paradigms will be established and<br />
astounding enterprise power stands to be gained. Does<br />
anyone own consumer identity data What precisely does<br />
“ownership” of personal data mean In any case, the<br />
objective is not to own the transaction but to control the<br />
data it generates. Facebook and Google are central, but<br />
dozens of established enterprises and innovative startups<br />
are in the game.<br />
In this special plenary session, Dr. Andreas Weigend will<br />
illuminate where identity data is, where it’s going, and<br />
how to leverage it.<br />
Speaker: Andreas Weigend, weigend.com, Former Chief<br />
Scientist, Amazon.com<br />
2:25-2:35pm<br />
Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />
2:35-2:45pm<br />
Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />
2:50-3:10pm<br />
l Track 1: Thought Leadership<br />
Case Study: CA General Underwriters<br />
Insurance<br />
Seize the Competitive Future through<br />
a Shared Vision for Value Creation,<br />
Quality Management & Collaboration<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> facilitates “anticipating future needs<br />
so we can actively create the future” (Drucker). Enrich<br />
it and your organization by creating more value from<br />
predictions, managing prediction quality and genuine<br />
collaboration among stakeholder teams. Stakeholders<br />
include your prediction financiers, owners and users<br />
plus analytics developers, implementers and insurers.<br />
Explore “what to do and how to do it” for collaboration,<br />
quality management and value creation plus appreciate<br />
Drucker’s Philosphies, Deming’s Principles, Juran’s<br />
Processes and Ackoff’s Pitfalls. Tribal cultures and their<br />
immune systems are primary inhibitors of collaboration.<br />
To ensure competitive future success of <strong>Predictive</strong><br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>, we need to selectively relax them.<br />
Speakers: Arnold Goodman Arnold Goodman, Founder<br />
& Principal, Collaborative Data Solutions & Stephanie<br />
Behnke, President, California General Underwriters<br />
Insurance Company<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 7 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
s Track 2: Real Estate Market Scoring<br />
Case Study: Altos Research<br />
There & Back Again: Model<br />
Interpretability in Real Estate<br />
Market Scoring<br />
Seasoned predictive analytics practitioners understand<br />
that simple “accuracy” is the beginning of model<br />
validation not the end. Perfect accuracy on your own<br />
training data is trivial. How confident are we in our<br />
predictions during truly unprecedented scenarios The<br />
business builds confidence and optimizes “variance” by<br />
involving itself in the gritty modeling process. Black boxes<br />
are difficult for the business to interpret so improving<br />
robustness often means going back to more transparent<br />
models. Ben will present a case study in local residential<br />
real estate market scoring when non-parametric<br />
ensemble methods were left behind for marginally less<br />
accurate but interpretable linear models.<br />
Speaker: Ben Gimpert Director of Quantitative<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>, Altos Research<br />
3:15-3:35pm<br />
l Track 1: Insurance<br />
Case Study: Alberta Motor Association<br />
Insurance Pricing Models using<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
The use of predictive analytics solutions as a pricing<br />
tool for insurance is a very recent phenomenon<br />
amongst actuaries. This case study examines what<br />
tools were used in the past and what has led to the<br />
adoption of predictive analytics solutions within the<br />
actuarial discipline. Particular emphasis is devoted to<br />
the significant data challenges which are unique to the<br />
insurance pricing sector. At the same time, attendees<br />
will learn the process that was adopted in building these<br />
tools. More importantly, attendees will understand how<br />
to demonstrate the value or benefit of predictive analytics<br />
solutions over existing actuarial tools.<br />
Speaker: Richard Boire, Partner, Boire Filler Group<br />
s Track 2: Branch Location Assessment<br />
Case Study: YMCA<br />
Using Probabilistic Computing to<br />
Optimize YMCA Branch Site Locations<br />
The YMCA operates a network of 2000+ branches,<br />
each of which is a $10M+ special-purpose investment.<br />
Predicting viability of new branch sites and benchmarking<br />
performance potential of existing sites is a high-value<br />
challenge which Seer <strong>Analytics</strong> has worked closely with<br />
the YMCA to tackle.<br />
Seer recently evaluated probabilistic computing models<br />
for retail site location analysis. Seer’s probabilistic models<br />
were developed in a week and were as predictive as a<br />
dedicated suite of logistic regression models developed<br />
over 18 months for the YMCA. The probabilistic models<br />
also generated per-estimate confidence intervals,<br />
offering unique insight into the risk associated with each<br />
prediction.<br />
Speaker: Bill Lazarus, President & CEO, Seer<strong>Analytics</strong><br />
3:40-4:00pm<br />
l Track 1: Insurance<br />
Case Study: Broadspire<br />
The First 24 Hours: Understanding<br />
New Claims<br />
Broadspire, a claim administrator, gets thousands of new<br />
workers’ compensation claims every week. Our internal<br />
methodology uses an expert research database, an<br />
intelligent interview process, and a sophisticated scoring<br />
tool to predict outcomes and resource needs for these<br />
claims as we conduct our three point interviews within 24<br />
hours of the first report. We will present the high dollar<br />
business problem that this method addresses, examine<br />
the development of the system through five years of real<br />
world use, and show the ways in which it has improved<br />
the claim handling process and the bottom line for<br />
Broadspire and its clients.<br />
Speakers: Gary Anderberg, Practice Leader of <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
& Outcomes, Broadspire & Sergo Grigalashvili, Vice<br />
President of Architecture, <strong>Analytics</strong>, Information &<br />
Communication Technology, Crawford & Company<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 8 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
s Track 2: Sponsored Lab<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />
4:35-4:55pm<br />
l Track 1: Econometric Indicators<br />
Case Study: LinkedIn<br />
Econometric Applications & Extracting<br />
Economic Insights from the LinkedIn<br />
Dataset<br />
Using examples from the LinkedIn dataset, this talk<br />
will highlight how applied economic intuition can be a<br />
valuable tool in extracting value from big data. We will<br />
discuss how econometric techniques expand the toolkit<br />
of data scientists, especially when trying to pull causation<br />
out of correlation in observational data. For example,<br />
what site activities are predictive of future engagement<br />
The second part of the talk will show how big data helps<br />
us understand the effects of economic events, especially<br />
with regard to the recent financial crisis. We will discuss<br />
predicting economic indicators and uncover other insights<br />
related to the economy.<br />
Speaker: Scott Nicholson, Senior Data Scientist,<br />
LinkedIn<br />
s Track 2: Net Lift Modeling<br />
Case Study: Market Share Partners<br />
Response Modeling is the Wrong<br />
Modeling: Maximize Impact With<br />
Net Lift Modeling<br />
The true effectiveness of a marketing campaign isn’t<br />
response rate! It’s the incremental impact - that is,<br />
additional revenue directly attributable to the campaign<br />
that would not otherwise have been generated. Yet<br />
traditional targeting criteria are often designed to find<br />
clients that are interested in the product, but would have<br />
bought it whether or not they received a promotion. In<br />
such cases, the incremental impact is insignificant and<br />
the marketing dollars could have been spent elsewhere.<br />
Net Lift Models are designed to maximize incremental<br />
impact by targeting the undecided clients that can be<br />
motivated by marketing. These “swing customers” are<br />
akin to the swing states of a presidential election; data<br />
miners could learn a lot from presidential campaigns.<br />
Beyond targeted marketing, Net Lift methodology delivers<br />
tremendous performance improvements for deployed<br />
churn models - retaining “savables” while avoiding the<br />
adverse “reverse” affects retention outreach triggers for<br />
some customers - as well as other innovative business<br />
applications of this advanced analytical method.<br />
This keynote will demonstrate how to build Net Lift<br />
Models (also referred to as Uplift or Incremental Lift) that<br />
optimize the incremental impact of marketing campaigns,<br />
discussing the pros and cons of multiple core analytical<br />
approaches.<br />
Speaker: Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical<br />
Insights, Market Share Partners<br />
4:00-4:35pm<br />
Break / Exhibits<br />
5:00-5:20pm<br />
l Track 1: Forecasting<br />
Case Study: Wells Fargo Securities<br />
Macroeconomic Forecasting,<br />
Consensus & Individual Forecaster:<br />
A Real-Time Approach<br />
This study provides a real-time short-term<br />
macroeconomic forecasting approach that offers several<br />
advantages over conventional short-term forecasting<br />
procedures. The approach produces more accurate<br />
real-time forecasts compared to those of the Bloomberg<br />
real-time consensus forecast, on average, for major<br />
macroeconomic variables.<br />
This study sheds light on five important areas of<br />
macroeconomic forecasting.<br />
Speaker: Azhar Iqbal, Vice President & Econometrician,<br />
Wells Fargo Securities<br />
s Track 2: Behavior-Based Advertising<br />
Case Study: CompassLabs<br />
Prediction and Optimization Models<br />
for Online Display Advertising<br />
According to eMarketer, the internet’s share of total<br />
media spending will continue to rise, from 15% in<br />
2010 to 20% in 2014 and the growth in online display<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 9 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
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advertising will outpace total online ad spending through<br />
2014. The trend indicates greater online ad competition<br />
and the weaker and slowly improving economy<br />
means more spending pressure, so how to deliver the<br />
stronger ROI becomes a key success factor for all online<br />
marketers. Today I am introducing a strategy which will<br />
let you get the exact same online display advertising<br />
results with only 55% of the spending.<br />
Speaker: Liwei Ma, Senior Director or <strong>Analytics</strong> &<br />
Insights, Big Fish Games<br />
5:25-5:45pm<br />
l Track 1: Social Data<br />
Case Study: Social Media Research<br />
Foundation<br />
Crowd Photography for Social Media<br />
Crowds of people gather in social media around many<br />
products, services, businesses, and events but they can be<br />
difficult to see and understand. With new free and open<br />
tools, it is now possible to map and measure social media<br />
spaces, capturing the sub-groups and key people within<br />
and between them. Learn how to capture social media<br />
data and quickly generate a visual map of the crowd.<br />
With maps in hand, we will discuss ways they guide a<br />
journey to the key influencers and concepts in the crowd.<br />
Speaker: Marc Smith, Chief Social Scientist, Social Media<br />
Research Foundation<br />
s Track 2: Behavior-Based Advertising<br />
Case Study: CompassLabs<br />
Prediction and Optimization Models<br />
for Online Display<br />
A challenging task in online advertising is to identify a<br />
combination of the right advertisement to right customer<br />
on right website at right time. In this talk, I will present<br />
a data-driven approach we developed to estimate the<br />
likelihood that a user would click an online display<br />
advertisement based on a set of user and webpage<br />
characteristics. We used this model to identify the optimal<br />
campaign and its bid price for an ad space available<br />
for purchase on a real-time ad-exchange. Our model is<br />
currently being used by a startup company in providing<br />
online advertising solutions to Fortune 500 companies.<br />
Speaker: Mahesh Kumar, CEO, Tiger <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
5:50-6:10pm<br />
l Track 1: Social Data<br />
Case Study: Real-world Examples in<br />
Financial Services, Emergency Response<br />
Exploring Social Data: Use Cases for<br />
Real-<strong>World</strong> Application<br />
With billions of social activities passing through the evergrowing<br />
real-time social web each day, companies are<br />
beginning to harness the power of social data. However, in<br />
today’s social data economy, not all social data is created<br />
equal. While all social media data can be valuable, it is a<br />
matter of discovering which type of social data is best suited<br />
for each specific use case. Through this session, participants<br />
will learn from real-world case studies in Financial Services,<br />
Emergency Response, Brand <strong>Analytics</strong> and other industries<br />
about how businesses are applying social data to their<br />
operations to drive value.<br />
Speaker: Chris Moody, President & COO, Gnip<br />
s Track 2: Behavior-Based<br />
Advertising Case Study: Interclick<br />
Data, Data Everywhere: Navigating<br />
the Digital Ecosystem with <strong>Predictive</strong><br />
<strong>Analytics</strong><br />
In today’s digital ecosystem, the challenge marketer’s face<br />
isn’t access, but it is determining the application and value<br />
of data. This presentation will demonstrate how interclick<br />
has pioneered data-driven advertising technologies to find<br />
applicable online audiences to meet digital campaign goals.<br />
Our challenges are testing multiple predictive modeling<br />
techniques on Big Data to build effective audiences and<br />
making algorithms align with multiple goals.<br />
Utilizing statistical data mining techniques such as hypothesis<br />
testing, collaborative filtering, and model ensemble,<br />
we have developed cutting-edge analytics products that<br />
recommend effective audiences with higher response rates<br />
in shorter time. Real results will be presented.<br />
Speaker: Yuan Ren, Data Mining Scientist, Interclick<br />
6:10-7:30pm<br />
Reception / Exhibits<br />
7:30-10:00pm<br />
Bay Area SAS User Group Meeting<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 10 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
Tuesday, March 6, 2012<br />
8:00-9:00am<br />
Registration & Breakfast<br />
9:00-9:45am<br />
Keynote<br />
Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />
Speaker: Anne Robinson, Director of Supply Chain<br />
Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />
9:45-10:05am<br />
Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />
10:05-10:35am<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
10:35-11:20am<br />
Expert Panel<br />
Wise Enterprise: Best Practices for<br />
Managing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Expert Panelists: TBA<br />
11:20-11:40am<br />
Lightning Round of 2-Minute<br />
Sponsor Presentations<br />
11:00-11:20am<br />
Sponsored Lab Session<br />
11:45-12:30pm<br />
l Track 1: Sponsored Lab<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />
s Track 2: Sponsored Lab<br />
Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />
12:30-1:30pm<br />
Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />
1:30-2:15pm<br />
Keynote<br />
The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> is powerful, it can help you predict an<br />
event or a behavior at a an individual customer level. It<br />
can help you spot golden nuggets from the deep-widebig<br />
data ocean; But is also one of the techniques which is<br />
not very well understood. With all the recent buzz about<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>, it does seems like a new technique<br />
in the tool box. Is that so In this keynote, we will ground<br />
ourselves in the reality of building and maintaining an<br />
impactful <strong>Predictive</strong> Model and explore questions like<br />
• Is <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> new<br />
• Is it a crystal ball<br />
• Is it perfect<br />
• Can it be built quickly and cheaply<br />
• Is it going to solve all my business problems<br />
• Does it always work<br />
• Can anybody learn how to build a model<br />
Speaker: Piyanka Jain, CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal<br />
Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />
2:15-2:20pm<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
2:20-2:25pm<br />
Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />
2:30-2:50pm<br />
l Track 1: Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Major League Baseball<br />
MLB Pitchers: A Look at the Numbers<br />
Baseball enthusiasts and statisticians have found common<br />
ground in the field of Sabermetrics – the application of<br />
statistics to baseball. Since the installation of the PITCHf/x<br />
tracking system in major league ballparks, data has been<br />
generated on the type, velocity, and displacement for<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 11 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
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every pitch thrown in the MLB. We present the findings<br />
from an investigation focused on MLB pitchers leveraging<br />
this treasure trove of information.<br />
In this presentation we investigate how pitchers generate<br />
value. We discuss methods that explore pitching speed<br />
and control data simultaneously. We also identify the<br />
factors that are most important in determining value<br />
generation.<br />
Speaker: Bartev Vartanian, Principal, Dataspora<br />
s Track 2: Retaining Subscribers<br />
Case Study: True-to-Life Anecdotes<br />
Based on Misc. Enterprise<br />
Successes Subscription Survival<br />
Modeling for Fun & Profit<br />
Survival analysis started in reliability engineering and<br />
medical research. More recently it has been used by<br />
marketers to better understand customers in subscription<br />
based businesses. While the basic math doesn’t<br />
change, there are practical differences when applied to<br />
marketing. First, N is huge. Secondly, there are generally<br />
many cohorts driven by marketing questions around<br />
product, offer, price, acquisition source, and various<br />
subscriber properties. In a series of case studies, you will<br />
learn the basic ideas behind subscription survival and<br />
how to calculate average lifetime, LTV, compare cohorts,<br />
and answer what-if questions. The data and code used<br />
are given to participants.<br />
Speaker: Jim Porzak, Senior Data Scientist, Viadeo<br />
2:55-3:15pm<br />
l Track 1: Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: NFL, MLB, & NBA<br />
Competing & Winning with<br />
Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
The field of sports analytics ties together the tools of<br />
data management, predictive modeling and information<br />
systems to provide sports organization a competitive<br />
advantage. The field is rapidly developing based on<br />
new and expanded data sources, greater recognition<br />
of the value, and past success of a variety of sports<br />
organizations. Teams in the NFL, MLB, NBA, as well as<br />
other organizations have found a competitive edge with<br />
the application of sports analytics. The future of sports<br />
analytics can be seen through drawing on these past<br />
successes and the developments of new tools.<br />
Speaker: Benjamin Alamar, Professor of Sports<br />
Management, Menlo College<br />
s Track 2: HR <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: An IT Support Firm<br />
and a Sales Workforce<br />
Creating an Engaged Workforce<br />
Using Statistical Learning<br />
Top-performing organizations consider employee<br />
engagement as a key performance driver. Interviews<br />
and questionnaires are widely used to measure this<br />
engagement, yet results are often unreliable, discrete,<br />
and non-actionable. In this talk, we demonstrate how<br />
statistical learning can be used to estimate engagement<br />
from individuals’ low-level activity data. Using prior<br />
knowledge and Bayesian frameworks, we have built<br />
a probabilistic model that incrementally learns every<br />
employee’s true level of engagement. Results have<br />
helped organizations (an IT support firm and a sales<br />
workforce to date) to form cohesive teams that are more<br />
productive and engaged at the workplace.<br />
Speaker: Salman Taherian, CFO & CIO, Kasra<br />
Technologies<br />
3:15-3:55pm<br />
Breaks / Exhibits<br />
3:55-4:15pm<br />
l Track 1: Enterprise-Wide <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Hewlett Packard,<br />
Global <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Institutionalization of Enterprise<br />
Wide <strong>Analytics</strong> to Help Organizations<br />
Make Better Decisions, Faster<br />
The presentation will talk about how organizations can<br />
leverage the structured and unstructured data within<br />
the enterprise and outside the enterprise to mine the<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 12 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Full Agenda<br />
insights and influence decision making across various<br />
functions. The speakers will share real life application of<br />
enterprise wide analytics in Hewlett Packard and how it<br />
drives business growth and improves profitability for the<br />
corporation. The presentation will demonstrate some<br />
of the cutting edge analytics that helps HP in better<br />
customer targeting, optimize the supply chain, improve<br />
customer experience, leverage the power of social media<br />
analytics, forecasting future scenarios for the business to<br />
win in the marketplace.<br />
Speaker: Rohit Tandon, Vice President of Global<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>, Hewlett Packard<br />
s Track 2: Healthcare <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Pfizer<br />
Right Medicine, Right Patient<br />
Can predictive modeling improve patient care A wealth<br />
of data exists in large healthcare databases on patient<br />
disease characteristics and their response to specific<br />
treatments. Max will discuss some of the technical and<br />
non-technical issues in providing care providers with<br />
quantitative results related to how individual patients<br />
might response to therapies.<br />
Speaker: Max Kuhn, Director of Nonclinical Statistics,<br />
Pfizer<br />
4:20-4:40pm<br />
l Track 1: Education<br />
Case Study: University of Phoenix<br />
Predicting Student Success<br />
With courses of 5-6 weeks in length, there is a narrow<br />
window in which to intervene when a student begins to<br />
struggle with a course. This project used data about a<br />
student’s classroom and online interactions, prior courses<br />
and demographic characteristics to create a system<br />
that prioritizes students based on their likelihood of<br />
successfully completing their current class. Advisers can<br />
use this prioritization to identify students most in need of<br />
academic, time-management, or financial-management<br />
coaching. Challenges and solutions will be discussed, as<br />
will next steps.<br />
Speaker: Rebecca Barber, Manager of Academic<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>, University of Phoenix<br />
s Track 2: Clinical Healthcare<br />
Case Study: Sisters of Mercy Health<br />
Systems<br />
Framework for Detection of Clinical<br />
States & Disease Onset Using<br />
Electronic Health Record (EHR) Data<br />
This case study describes the application of predictive<br />
analytics to the detection of disease onset and clinical<br />
states through the use of electronic health records<br />
(EHR). The framework presented here aims to improve<br />
prediction of a patient’s risk for developing severe sepsis<br />
and septic shock through a risk score generated as a<br />
function of measurements of patient vitals over time. A<br />
risk score threshold of 0.71 was found to yield the highest<br />
sensitivity while minimizing false negatives in the patient<br />
database. This predictive model can also be generalized<br />
to predict outcomes of other application domains.<br />
Speaker: Jeni Fan, Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton<br />
4:45-5:05pm<br />
l Track 1: Agile <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Case Study: Kelley Blue Book<br />
Agile <strong>Analytics</strong>: Model Development<br />
in an Agile Environment<br />
Technology organizations have been using Agile<br />
development for more than 10 years to promote adaptive<br />
planning, development and delivery of software. In this<br />
session, discover how the Kelley Blue Book predictive<br />
analytics organization leverages agile analytics to<br />
increase team collaboration, reduced spin and improve<br />
cross-functional communication/relationships. Agile<br />
analytics has imparted structure in a seemingly<br />
unstructured development process, improved overall<br />
model performance and increased business owner<br />
acceptance. Discussion will provide analysts and analytics<br />
leadership with an effective framework to improve model<br />
efficiency, accuracy and applicability.<br />
Speaker: Shawn Hushman, Vice President of Advanced<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>, Kelley Blue Book<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 13 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
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s Track 2: Fraud Detection<br />
TBA Session on Fraud Detection<br />
Speaker: Antonia de Medinaceli, Senior Business<br />
Analyst, Elder Research, Inc.<br />
5:10-5:30pm<br />
l Track 1: Non-Profit<br />
Case Study: Volunteers of America,<br />
Chesapeake<br />
Turning Operational Outcome<br />
Metrics into an Actionable <strong>Predictive</strong><br />
Forecasting Model<br />
Analysis of program operation/case management<br />
outcomes often involved weeks of labor to decipher<br />
relationships and identify those that had a meaningful<br />
impact on organizations financial forecast. Nimble<br />
human service non-profits and social service agencies<br />
are starting to leverage the power of open-source<br />
Analytic tools like R and the native algorithms available<br />
to build robust <strong>Predictive</strong> modeling within their budgeting<br />
process. Already committed to a cloud computing<br />
platform and having a limited budget, learn how VOA<br />
leveraged cloud services and open-source components to<br />
create a robust dashboard and reporting solution for our<br />
executive management team.<br />
Speaker: Shyam Desigan, CFO, Volunteers of America,<br />
Chesapeake<br />
s Track 2: Blackbox Trading<br />
Case Study: ZZAlpha<br />
Effective Market Forecasting<br />
in 5 Key Dimension<br />
We demonstrate that a machine learning technique<br />
predicts relative future price in five key dimensions of<br />
the US equities market. The price forecasts answer key<br />
investment questions: In or Out of the market, Value or<br />
Growth style, Large or Small cap, Which is best sector,<br />
and What is the direction of the economic core. Forecasts<br />
are implemented using large ETFs. Returns exceed<br />
benchmarks and risk is reduced. Large Monte Carlo<br />
simulations confirm statistical confidence exceeding 3<br />
sigma (99.7%).<br />
Speaker: Kevin Pratt, Founder & Chief Scientist, ZZAlpha<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 14 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Workshops<br />
Sunday, March 4, 2012<br />
s Full-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
R for <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling: A Hands-On<br />
Introduction<br />
Instructor: Max Kuhn, Director, Nonclinical Statistics,<br />
Pfizer<br />
Intended Audience: Practitioners who wish to learn<br />
how to execute on predictive analytics by way of the<br />
R language; anyone who wants “to turn ideas into<br />
software, quickly and faithfully.”<br />
Knowledge Level: Either hands-on experience with<br />
predictive modeling (without R) or hands-on familiarity<br />
with any programming language (other than R) is<br />
sufficient background and preparation to participate in<br />
this workshop.<br />
Workshop Description: This one-day session provides a<br />
hands-on introduction to R, the well-known open-source<br />
platform for data analysis. Real examples are employed<br />
in order to methodically expose attendees to best<br />
practices driving R and its rich set of predictive modeling<br />
packages, providing hands-on experience and knowhow.<br />
R is compared to other data analysis platforms, and<br />
common pitfalls in using R are addressed.<br />
The instructor, a leading R developer and the creator of<br />
CARET, a core R package that streamlines the process<br />
for creating predictive models, will guide attendees on<br />
hands-on execution with R, covering:<br />
• A working knowledge of the R system<br />
• The strengths and limitations of the R language<br />
• Preparing data with R, including splitting, resampling<br />
and variable creation<br />
• Developing predictive models with R, including<br />
decision trees, support vector machines and ensemble<br />
methods<br />
• Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and<br />
tools that persuade<br />
• Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift<br />
curves, variable importance and avoiding overfitting<br />
Hardware: Bring Your Own Laptop<br />
Each workshop participant is required to bring their<br />
own laptop running Windows or OS X. The software<br />
used during this training program, R, is free and readily<br />
available for download.<br />
Attendees receive an electronic copy of the course<br />
materials and related R code at the conclusion of the<br />
workshop.<br />
Schedule:<br />
• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />
• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />
• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />
• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />
• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />
Wednesday, March 7, 2012<br />
s Full-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
The Best & the Worst of <strong>Predictive</strong><br />
<strong>Analytics</strong>: <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling<br />
Methods & Common Data Mining<br />
Mistakes<br />
Instructor: John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research,<br />
Inc.<br />
Intended Audience: Interested in the true nuts and bolts<br />
Knowledge Level: Familiar with the basics of predictive<br />
modeling.<br />
Attendees will receive an electronic copy of the course notes<br />
via USB drive.<br />
Workshop Description: <strong>Predictive</strong> analytics has proven<br />
capable of enormous returns across industries – but, with so<br />
many core methods for predictive modeling, there are some<br />
tough questions that need answering:<br />
• How do you pick the right one to deliver the greatest<br />
impact for your business, as applied over your data<br />
• What are the best practices along the way<br />
• And how do you avoid the most treacherous pitfalls<br />
This one-day session surveys standard and advanced<br />
methods for predictive modeling.<br />
Dr. Elder will describe the key inner workings of leading<br />
algorithms, demonstrate their performance with business<br />
case studies, compare their merits, and show you how to<br />
pick the method and tool best suited to each predictive<br />
analytics project. Methods covered include classical<br />
regression, decision trees, neural networks, ensemble<br />
methods, uplift modeling and more.<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 15 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Workshops<br />
The key to successfully leveraging these methods is to avoid<br />
“worst practices”. It’s all too easy to go too far in one’s<br />
analysis and “torture the data until it confesses” or otherwise<br />
doom predictive models to fail where they really matter: on<br />
new situations.<br />
Dr. Elder will share his (often humorous) stories from realworld<br />
applications, highlighting the Top 10 common, but<br />
deadly, mistakes. Come learn how to avoid these pitfalls by<br />
laughing (or gasping) at stories of barely averted disaster.<br />
If you’d like to become a practitioner of predictive analytics<br />
– or if you already are, and would like to hone your<br />
knowledge across methods and best practices, this workshop<br />
is for you!<br />
What you will learn:<br />
• The tremendous value of learning from data<br />
• How to create valuable predictive models for your<br />
business<br />
• Best Practices by seeing their flip side: Worst Practices<br />
Schedule:<br />
• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />
• First AM Break from 10:00-10:15am<br />
• Second AM Break from 11:15-11:30am<br />
• Lunch from 12:30-1:15pm<br />
• First PM Break: 2:00-2:15pm<br />
• Second PM Break: 3:15-3:30pm<br />
• Workshops ends at 4:30pm<br />
A free copy of John Elder’s book Statistical Analysis and<br />
Data Mining Applications is included.<br />
Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />
l Full-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
Business Friendly Data Mining<br />
with Decision Management<br />
Instructor: James Taylor, CEO, Decision<br />
Management Solutions<br />
How to talk so your business team will listen, how to listen so<br />
your business team will talk.<br />
Intended Audience: Analytic, business and IT<br />
professionals interested in improving their business with<br />
advanced analytics.<br />
Attendees receive a free copy each of James Taylor’s<br />
books “Decision Management Systems: A Practical Guide<br />
to Business Rules and <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>”, and “PMML in<br />
Action: Unleashing the Power of Open Standards for Data<br />
Mining and <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>”, a course materials book,<br />
and an official certificate of completion at the conclusion of<br />
the workshop.<br />
Workshop Description: There is a real opportunity to<br />
use predictive analytics to address key business challenges<br />
like fraud detection, risk management, customer next<br />
best activity, customer retention, validation, marketing<br />
segmentation, eligibility and more. Organizations that are<br />
more sophisticated with analytics are three times more<br />
likely to be in the top 17% of top business performers*.<br />
But too often there are gaps in understanding between<br />
business, IT and analytics teams. Gaps in building business<br />
understanding lead to analytic models that don’t have<br />
business value and gaps in implementation lead to models<br />
that take months or years to adopt or never get adopted at<br />
all. Wasted effort and “good” models that just sit on the shelf<br />
gathering dust are the result.<br />
This one day workshop on business friendly data mining with<br />
Decision Management will show you how to:<br />
• Improve business/analytics/IT collaboration and<br />
understanding<br />
• Clarify the data mining goals<br />
• Enable rapid deployment of models in IT/operational<br />
systems<br />
James Taylor will cover the principles of Decision<br />
Management, its application to critical business challenges,<br />
and the appropriate use of available technology to deliver<br />
business friendly data mining in your organization.<br />
You’ll see how identifying and prioritizing the operational<br />
decisions that drive your organization’s success creates a<br />
common language and collaboration environment between<br />
business, IT and the analytics team. You’ll learn how to<br />
model and understand these decisions and so clarify and<br />
focus the problem statements that drive your analytic efforts.<br />
This focus on decisions and the effective use of business rules<br />
and in-database technology also enables rapid deployment<br />
of analytic models in operational systems, to automate<br />
and improve these decisions for sustainable competitive<br />
advantage.<br />
Data miners working with the approach have said:<br />
“Clearly an effective way to get more understanding of a<br />
problem prior to modeling”<br />
“Great interaction with the business team.”<br />
“Much more interactive than our current process to gather<br />
requirements.”<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 16 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Workshops<br />
Schedule:<br />
• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />
• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />
• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />
• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />
• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />
This workshop is focused squarely on solving business<br />
problems. It is vendor-neutral and is for business, IT and<br />
analytic professionals responsible for best practices and<br />
improving the business with analytics<br />
Friday, March 9: Afternoon &<br />
Saturday, March 10, 2012<br />
s Two-Day Workshop<br />
9:00am-4:30pm<br />
Net Lift Models: Optimizing the<br />
Impact of Your Marketing<br />
Instructor: Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical<br />
Insights, Market Shares Partners<br />
Intended Audience: Statisticians, business analysts,<br />
and market researchers who build predictive models for<br />
marketing and retention campaigns.<br />
Workshop Description: The true effectiveness of a<br />
marketing campaign isn’t response rate, it is the incremental<br />
impact - that is, additional revenue directly attributable<br />
to the campaign that would not otherwise have been<br />
generated. Yet traditional targeting criteria are often<br />
designed to find clients that are interested in the product,<br />
but would have bought it anyway, whether or not they<br />
received a promotion. In such cases, the incremental impact<br />
is insignificant and the marketing dollars could have been<br />
spent elsewhere.<br />
Net Lift Models are designed to maximize incremental<br />
impact by targeting the undecided clients that can be<br />
motivated by marketing. These “swing customers” are akin<br />
to the swing states of a political election; data miners could<br />
learn a lot from political campaigns.<br />
Beyond targeted marketing, Net Lift methodology delivers<br />
tremendous performance improvements for deployed churn<br />
models - retaining “savables” while avoiding the adverse<br />
“reverse” affects retention outreach triggers for some<br />
customers - as well as other innovative business applications<br />
of this advanced analytical method.<br />
This workshop demonstrates how to build Net Lift Models<br />
that optimize the incremental impact of marketing<br />
campaigns, covering the pros and cons of various core<br />
analytical approaches.<br />
You will learn how to:<br />
• Build net lift models that maximize the difference in<br />
response rates between the clients who receive the offer<br />
and those that do not (the control group)<br />
• Identify good incremental lift predictive variables<br />
• Build net lift models using a variety of techniques<br />
• Evaluate and deploy net models<br />
Specific topics covered include:<br />
• Net lift models versus propensity models<br />
• Example net lift models in action<br />
• Comparison of net lift modeling approaches, including<br />
regression- and non-regression-based methods, and the<br />
Generalized Naive Bayes Classifier<br />
Access to working code and real examples. In order to<br />
illustrate net lift modeling in action and provide options for<br />
“take-home” usage, the instructor will provide 1) example<br />
datasets and 2) examples of code implementing incremental<br />
lift modeling methods, including the following SAS macros:<br />
INCREMENTAL, INFORMATION, GNBCREG, NWOE (net<br />
weight of evidence), and NIV (net information value).<br />
While very advanced attendees may optionally bring their<br />
own laptop and software to try out net lift modeling during<br />
the workshop, this concentrate topics course does not<br />
include enough time for guided hands-on instruction; it is<br />
not designed or intended as a “hands-on” training program.<br />
Schedule:<br />
• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />
• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />
• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />
• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />
• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />
This workshop is offered in cooperation and special<br />
arrangement with SAS Institute.<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 17 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Keynote Bios<br />
Piyanka Jain<br />
CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal<br />
Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />
Piyanka Jain’s interest lies in deriving actionable insights<br />
from data to enable informed trade-offs and decision<br />
making. She enjoys problem solving and finds herself<br />
driven towards empowering business professionals<br />
to make better data driven business decision through<br />
Aryng’s “Data to Decisions” framework she teaches.<br />
With Aryng, she is creating an organization to drive<br />
business transformation through the power of analytics.<br />
Before founding Aryng, she was heading the NA Business<br />
<strong>Analytics</strong> at PayPal, leading strategic analytics, managing<br />
and setting agenda for the team, defining strategic<br />
roadmap to find NA business drivers. At PayPal, she and<br />
her team have delivered several high impact projects<br />
including product portfolio analysis, merchant lifecycle<br />
analysis, Voice of Customer analysis, Next Best Product<br />
Model for Merchant with $84+ mm revenue impact.<br />
Prior to this, Piyanka drove direct measurable revenue<br />
impact of $18 mm through Strategic/Marketing<br />
analytics in partnership with Adobe Product Marketing<br />
and Relationship Marketing team. Within Marketing<br />
Operations and <strong>Analytics</strong> department, her role was to<br />
lead the organization into learning more about their<br />
products and customers through establishing appropriate<br />
engagement model with BU and rigorous mining of<br />
data. Within Relationship Marketing, Piyanka and her<br />
team’s role involved designing and analyzing campaigns,<br />
creating and executing appropriate segmentation and<br />
targeting strategy, Fine tuning messaging, creatives and<br />
offers by Test & Control and improving targeting and<br />
increasing marketable universe by building response<br />
models and propensity models.<br />
Anne Robinson<br />
Director of Supply Chain Strategy<br />
& <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />
Bio is forthcoming.<br />
Keynote: Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />
Keynote: The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 18 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Keynote Bios<br />
Eric Siegel<br />
Program Chair,<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />
The president of Prediction Impact, Inc., Eric Siegel<br />
is an expert in predictive analytics and data mining<br />
and a former computer science professor at Columbia<br />
University, where he won the engineering school’s award<br />
for teaching, including graduate-level courses in machine<br />
learning and intelligent systems - the academic terms<br />
for predictive analytics. After Columbia, Dr. Siegel cofounded<br />
two software companies for customer profiling<br />
and data mining, and then started Prediction Impact in<br />
2003, providing predictive analytics services and training<br />
to mid-tier through Fortune 100 companies.<br />
Dr. Siegel is the instructor of the acclaimed training<br />
program, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> for Business, Marketing<br />
and Web, and the online version, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />
Applied. He has published over 20 papers and articles in<br />
data mining research and computer science education,<br />
has served on 10 conference programme committees,<br />
has chaired a AAAI Symposium held at MIT, and is the<br />
founding chair of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>.<br />
Keynote: Persuasion by the Numbers: Optimize<br />
Marketing Influence by Predicting It<br />
For more speaker bio’s please visit<br />
www.predictiveanalyticworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012/speakers.php<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 19 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Registration<br />
www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/register.php<br />
2 Day Conference Pass<br />
Monday 3/5 and Tuesday 3/6<br />
2 Day PAW / TAW Combo Pass<br />
Monday 3/5 to Wednesday 3/7<br />
2 Day PAW / 3 Day eMetrics Combo Pass<br />
Monday 3/5 to Wednesday 3/7<br />
Social Networking Pass<br />
Monday 3/5 or Tuesday 3/6 (Access to Exhibit Hall and Keynotes Only)<br />
Early Bird<br />
ENDS JAN 20<br />
Regular<br />
Price<br />
ENDS MAR 2<br />
Onsite Price<br />
$1,690 $1,890 $2,090<br />
$2,180 $2,380 $2,580<br />
$2,540 $2,790 $3,090<br />
$150 $150 $150<br />
Exhibit Hall Only Passes $25 $25 $45<br />
PAW Workshops (see Overview)<br />
Hands-On Intro to R<br />
Sunday 3/4 – full day<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling Methods<br />
Wednesday 3/7 - full day<br />
Early Bird<br />
ENDS JAN 20<br />
Regular<br />
Price<br />
ENDS MAR 2<br />
Onsite Price<br />
$895 $995 $995<br />
$895 $995 $995<br />
Business Friendly Data Mining<br />
Thursday 3/8 - full day<br />
$895 $995 $995<br />
Net Lift Modeling<br />
Friday 3/9 – Saturday 3/10 (2 day)<br />
eMetrics Marketing Optimization Summit Workshops<br />
These workshops, co-located with PAW, cover hot topics in web analytics<br />
and online marketing optimization, but may not include content on<br />
predictive analytics. You may register for these workshops as part of the PAW<br />
registration process.<br />
$1,295 $1,495 $1,495<br />
Early Bird<br />
ENDS JAN 20<br />
Regular<br />
Price<br />
ENDS MAR 2<br />
Onsite Price<br />
Introduction to Web <strong>Analytics</strong> 101 $850 $900 $1,000<br />
Applying Web <strong>Analytics</strong> 102 $850 $900 $1,000<br />
Pimp Your Reports $850 $900 $1,000<br />
Roadmap to Online: <strong>Analytics</strong> Success $850 $900 $1,000<br />
Google <strong>Analytics</strong> Users’ Great Event<br />
This GA users’ conference, co-located with PAW, cover hot topics in web<br />
analytics, but may not include content on predictive analytics. You may<br />
register for these workshops as part of the PAW registration process.<br />
User Conference<br />
Day 1 - Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />
Training Workshops<br />
Day 2 - Friday, March 8, 2012<br />
Both Days<br />
March 8 & 9, 2012<br />
Early Bird<br />
ENDS JAN 20<br />
Regular<br />
Price<br />
ENDS MAR 2<br />
Onsite Price<br />
$445 $495 $595<br />
$445 $495 $595<br />
$795 $895 $995<br />
Includes breakfasts, lunches, priceless networking during coffee breaks, the PAW Reception, and full access to program sessions and sponsor expositions.<br />
Bring the Team Offer<br />
Each additional attendee from the same company registered at the same time receives an extra $200 off the Two Day Pass.<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 20 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012
Hotel & Location<br />
Hotel Rooms and Location:<br />
<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />
San Francisco Marriott Marquis<br />
55 Fourth Street<br />
San Francisco, CA 94103<br />
Reservations: 1-800-228-9290<br />
Phone: 1-703-845-1010<br />
Fax: 1-703-820-6425<br />
There are a limited number of rooms at the San<br />
Francisco Marriott Marquis which can be booked at<br />
the <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong> Group Rate of $249<br />
plus taxes for a single or double room. To guarantee<br />
the group rate, reservations must be completed by<br />
February 13. Reservations can be made by calling 800-<br />
228-9290 and referencing Data Driven Business Week.<br />
Reservations must be received on or before<br />
February 13th, 2012 to guarantee the group rate.<br />
Hotel Highlights<br />
Rising 39 stories high in the skyline, the magnificent<br />
Marriott Marquis San Francisco Hotel exudes an<br />
essence of modern luxury and the convenience of an<br />
extraordinary downtown San Francisco hotel. Just<br />
south of Market Street, this San Francisco, California<br />
hotel next to the Moscone Convention Center is<br />
steps away from the Yerba Buena Gardens, renowned<br />
museums and cultural attractions, world-class shopping<br />
on Union Square, and AT&T Park, home of the<br />
San Francisco Giants. Enjoy inspiring penthouse views<br />
and cocktails at The View Lounge or the finest contemporary<br />
cuisine at Mission Grille before retiring to<br />
luxuriously appointed San Francisco hotel rooms and<br />
suites. Renowned as a meeting hotel in San Francisco,<br />
California, this business hotel provides flexible and<br />
expansive event venues to accommodate both grand<br />
and intimate San Francisco hotel receptions. Whether<br />
in town for business or pleasure, experience San Francisco<br />
at the Marriott Marquis hotel in San Francisco,<br />
CA where you’re sure to leave your heart.<br />
© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 21 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012