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CONFERENCE PREVIEW - Predictive Analytics World

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part of<br />

MARCH 4 - 10, 2012 ● SAN FRANCISCO, CA<br />

<strong>CONFERENCE</strong> <strong>PREVIEW</strong><br />

www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012<br />

KEYNOTE SPEAKERS<br />

Piyanka Jain<br />

CEO, Aryng.com<br />

Former PayPal Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />

Anne Robinson<br />

Director of Supply Chain Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Verizon Wireless<br />

Eric Siegel<br />

Conference Chair<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />

PRODUCED BY


An Invitation<br />

Dear Analytical Innovators and Practitioners,<br />

I invite you to join us this March in San Francisco for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>, the business-focused event, loaded with<br />

predictive analytics case studies, expertise and resources. This conference brings professionals and experts together in<br />

order to keep predictive analytics deployment moving forward, strengthening the impact it delivers and establishing new<br />

opportunities.<br />

PAW’s San Francisco 2012 program features over 40 sessions across two tracks - an “All Audiences” and an “Expert/<br />

Practitioner” track -- so you can witness how predictive analytics is applied at enterprises such as Altos Research, Alberta<br />

Motor Association, Broadspire, CompassLabs , Hewlett Packard, Interclick, Kelley Blue Book, LinkedIn, MLB, NFL, NBA,<br />

Pfizer, Sisters of Mercy Health Systems, Social Media Research Foundation, University of Phoenix, Volunteers of America,<br />

Wells Fargo, Yahoo!, YMCA, ZZAlpha, California General Underwriters Insurance Company, an IT support firm and a<br />

sales workforce, real-world examples in Financial Services, Emergency Response, true-to-life anecdotes based on misc.<br />

enterprise successes plus insights from projects for Anheuser-Busch, Dept. Homeland Security, and US Postal Service<br />

Office of Inspector General.<br />

PAW’s March agenda covers hot topics and advanced methods such as agile analytics, behavior-based advertising,<br />

blackbox trading, branch location assessment, churn modeling, clinical healthcare, cloud analytics, crowdsourcing predictive<br />

analytics, econometric indicators, education, enterprise-wide analytics, forecasting, HR analytics, insurance, list sourcing,<br />

non-profits, online marketing, real estate market scoring, risk management, social data, sports analytics, targeting direct<br />

marketing, uplift modeling, and other innovative applications that benefit organizations in new and creative ways..<br />

Join PAW and access our premier keynotes, sessions, workshops, exposition, expert panel, live demos, networking coffee<br />

breaks, and reception.<br />

Eric Siegel Ph.D.<br />

Program Chair<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />

New to <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

If you’re new to the field, kicking off a new initiative, or exploring new ways to position it at your organization, there’s<br />

no better place to get your bearings than <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>. See what other companies are doing, witness<br />

vendor demos, participate in discussions with the experts, network with your colleagues and weigh your options!<br />

Access the free online <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> Guide: www.pawcon.com/guide<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 1 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Agenda Overview<br />

for all levels<br />

for expert/Practitioners<br />

Sunday, March 4, 2012<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

Full-Day Workshop<br />

R for <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling: A Hands-On Introduction s<br />

Max Kuhn, Director, Nonclinical Statistics, Pfizer<br />

DAY 1: Monday, March 5, 2012<br />

8:00-9:00am<br />

9:00-9:45am<br />

9:45-10:05am<br />

10:05-10:10am<br />

10:10-10:40am<br />

Registration & Breakfast<br />

Keynote<br />

Persuasion by the Numbers: Optimize Marketing Influence by Predicting It<br />

Eric Siegel, Program Chair, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />

Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

Track 1: All Levels<br />

Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />

10:40-11:00am<br />

11:05-11:25am<br />

Case Study: Five Growth Scenarios<br />

for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud l<br />

James Taylor, Decision Management Solutions<br />

Crowdsourcing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Wikipedia l<br />

Solving the Last Mile:<br />

Focusing Global Intelligence on Your Data<br />

Mehul Patel, Kaggle<br />

Case Study from<br />

s<br />

Dean Abbott, Abbott <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

11:30am-<br />

12:15pm<br />

Special Plenary Session<br />

Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Dept. Homeland Security,<br />

& US Postal Service Office of Inspector General<br />

Becoming an Ace with a Robot as your Wingman<br />

John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc.<br />

12:15-12:20pm<br />

12:20-12:40pm<br />

12:40-1:40pm<br />

1:40-2:25pm<br />

2:25-2:35pm<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor Presentations<br />

Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />

Special Plenary Session<br />

Consumer Applications Identity Wars: The Battle to Control Personal Data<br />

Andreas Weigend, weigend.com, Former Chief Scientist, Amazon.com<br />

Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 2 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Agenda Overview<br />

2:35-2:45pm<br />

Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />

2:50-3:10pm<br />

3:15-3:35pm<br />

Track 1: All Levels<br />

Thought Leadership<br />

Case Study: CA General Underwriters Insurance l<br />

Seize the Competitive Future through a<br />

Shared Vision for Value Creation,<br />

Quality Management & Collaboration<br />

Arnold Goodman, Collaborative Data Solutions<br />

& Stephanie Behnke, CA General<br />

Underwriters Insurance<br />

Insurance<br />

Case Study: Alberta Motor Association l<br />

Insurance Pricing Models using<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Richard Boire, Boire Filler Group<br />

Insurance<br />

Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />

Real Estate Market Scoring<br />

Case Study: Altos Research s<br />

There & Back Again: Model Interpretability<br />

in Real Estate Market Scoring<br />

Ben Gimpert, Altos Research<br />

Branch Location Assessment<br />

Case Study: YMCA s<br />

Using Probabilistic Computing<br />

to Optimize YMCA Branch Site Locations<br />

Bill Lazarus, Seer<strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Sponsored Lab<br />

3:40-4:00pm<br />

4:00-4:35pm<br />

4:35-4:55pm<br />

5:00-5:20pm<br />

5:25-5:45pm<br />

5:50-6:10pm<br />

6:10-7:30pm<br />

7:30-10:00pm<br />

Case Study: Broadspire l<br />

The First 24 Hours: Understanding New Claims<br />

Gary Anderberg, Broadspire<br />

& Sergo Grigalashvili, Crawford & Company<br />

Econometric Indicators<br />

Case Study: LinkedIn l<br />

Econometric Applications & Extracting<br />

Economic Insights from the LinkedIn Dataset<br />

Scott Nicholson, LinkedIn<br />

Forecasting<br />

Case Study: Wells Fargo Securities<br />

Macroeconomic Forecasting, Consensus &<br />

Individual Forecaster: A Real-Time Approach l<br />

Azhar Iqbal, Wells Fargo Securities<br />

Social Data<br />

Case Study: Social Media Research Foundation l<br />

Crowd Photography for Social Media<br />

Marc Smith, Social Media Research Foundation<br />

Social Data<br />

Case Study: Real-world examples in<br />

Financial Services, Emergency Response l<br />

Exploring Social Data: Use Cases for<br />

Real-<strong>World</strong> Application<br />

Chris Moody, Gnip<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

Reception / Exhibits<br />

Bay Area SAS Users Group Meeting<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo s<br />

Net Lift Modeling<br />

Case Study: Market Share Partners s<br />

Response Modeling is the Wrong Modeling:<br />

Maximize Impact With Uplift Modeling<br />

Kim Larsen, Market Share Partners<br />

Behavior-Based Advertising<br />

Case Study: Yahoo! s<br />

How to Get the Exact Same Online<br />

Display Advertising Results with<br />

Only 55% of the Spending<br />

Liwei Ma, Big Fish Games<br />

Behavior-Based Advertising<br />

Case Study: CompassLabs s<br />

Prediction and Optimization Models<br />

for Online Display Advertising<br />

Mahesh Kumar, Tiger <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Behavior-Based Advertising<br />

Case Study: Interclick Data s<br />

Data, Data Everywhere: Navigating the<br />

Digital Ecosystem with <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Yuan Ren, Interclick<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 3 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Agenda Overview<br />

8:00-9:00am<br />

9:00-9:45am<br />

9:45-10:05am<br />

10:05-10:35am<br />

10:35-11:20am<br />

11:20-11:40am<br />

11:45am-12:30pm<br />

12:30-1:30pm<br />

1:30-2:15pm<br />

2:15-2:20pm<br />

2:20-2:25pm<br />

2:30-2:50pm<br />

DAY 2: Tuesday, March 6, 2012<br />

Registration & Breakfast<br />

Keynote<br />

Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />

Anne Robinson, Director of Supply Chain Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />

Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

Expert Panel<br />

Wise Enterprise: Best Practices for Managing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor Presentations<br />

Track 1: All Levels<br />

Sponsored Lab<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo l<br />

Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />

Keynote<br />

The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />

Sponsored Lab<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo s<br />

Piyanka Jain, CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />

Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Major League Baseball l<br />

MLB Pitchers: A Look at the Numbers<br />

Bartev Vartanian, Dataspora<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

Retaining Subscribers<br />

Case Study: True-to-Life Anecdotes Based on<br />

Misc. Enterprise Successes Subscription s<br />

Survival Modeling for Fun & Profit<br />

Jim Porzak, Viadeo<br />

2:55-3:15pm<br />

Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: NFL, MLB, & NBA l<br />

Competing & Winning with Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Benjamin Alamar, Menlo College<br />

HR <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: An IT Support Firm &<br />

a Sales Workforce s<br />

Creating an Engaged Workforce<br />

using Statistical Learning<br />

Salman Taherian, Kasra Technologies<br />

3:15-3:55pm<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 4 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Agenda Overview<br />

3:55-4:15pm<br />

4:20-4:40pm<br />

4:45-5:05pm<br />

5:10-5:30pm<br />

Track 1: All Levels<br />

Enterprise-Wide <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Hewlett Packard Global <strong>Analytics</strong> l<br />

Institutionalization of Enterprise Wide<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong> to Help Organizations Make Better<br />

Decisions, Faster<br />

Rohit Tandon, Hewlett Packard<br />

Education<br />

Case Study: University of Phoenix l<br />

Predicting Student Success<br />

Rebecca Barber, University of Phoenix<br />

Agile <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Kelley Blue Book l<br />

Agile <strong>Analytics</strong>: Model Development in<br />

an Agile Environment<br />

Shawn Hushman, Kelley Blue Book<br />

Non-Profit<br />

Case Study: Volunteers of America, Chesapeake l<br />

Turning Operational Outcome Metrics into<br />

an Actionable <strong>Predictive</strong> Forecasting Model<br />

Shyam Desigan, Volunteers of America, Chesapeake<br />

Track 2: Expert/Practitioners<br />

Healthcare <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Pfizer s<br />

Right Medicine Right Patient<br />

Max Kuhn, Pfizer<br />

Clinical Healthcare<br />

Case Study: Sisters of Mercy Health Systems s<br />

Framework for Detection of Clinical<br />

States & Disease Onset Using Electronic<br />

Health Record (EHR) Data<br />

Jeni Fan, Booz Allen Hamilton<br />

Fraud Detection<br />

TBA Session on Fraud Detection s<br />

Antonia de Medinaceli, Elder Research, Inc.<br />

Blackbox Trading<br />

Case Study: ZZAlpha s<br />

Effective Market Forecasting<br />

in 5 Key Dimensions<br />

Kevin Pratt, ZZAlpha<br />

Wednesday, March 7, 2012<br />

Full-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

The Best & the Worst of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>:<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling Methods & Common Data Mining Mistakes s<br />

John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc<br />

Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />

Full-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am–4:30pm<br />

Business Friendly Data Mining with Decision Management l<br />

James Taylor, CEO, Decision Management Solutions<br />

Friday, March 9 and Saturday, March 10, 2012<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

Two-Day Workshop<br />

Net Lift Models: Optimizing the Impact of Your Marketing s<br />

Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical Insights, Market Shares Partners<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 5 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

Monday, March 5, 2012<br />

9:45am-7:30pm<br />

Exhibit Hall Open<br />

8:00-9:00am<br />

Registration & Breakfast<br />

9:00-9:45am<br />

Keynote<br />

Persuasion by the Numbers:<br />

Optimize Marketing Influence by<br />

Predicting It<br />

Data driven marketing decisions are meant to maximize<br />

impact - right Well, the only way to optimize marketing<br />

influence is to predict it. The analytical method to do this<br />

is called uplift modeling. This is a completely different<br />

animal from what most models predict: customer<br />

behavior. Instead, uplift models predict the influence on<br />

customer behavior gained by choosing one marketing<br />

action over another. The good news is case studies show<br />

ROI going where it has never gone before. The bad<br />

news You need a control set... But you should have<br />

been using one anyway! The crazy part is that “marketing<br />

influence” can never be observed for any one customer,<br />

since it literally involves the inner workings of the<br />

customer’s central nervous system. If influence can’t be<br />

observed, how can we possibly model and predict it<br />

Speaker: Eric Siegel, Program Chair, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

<strong>World</strong><br />

9:45-10:05am<br />

Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />

10:05-10:10am<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

10:15-10:40am<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

for all levels<br />

for expert/Practitioners<br />

10:40-11:00am<br />

l Track 1: <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />

Case Study: Five Growth Scenarios<br />

for <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> in the Cloud<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> analytics and cloud technologies are hot topics<br />

individually, but how can you use them together In this<br />

session industry expert James Taylor will discuss the use<br />

cases for predictive analytics in the cloud. He will show<br />

how companies at every stage of analytic sophistication<br />

can use cloud-based predictive analytic approaches,<br />

discuss the value propositions of the different use cases,<br />

outline the pros and cons of predictive analytics in<br />

the cloud, and present results from a recent survey on<br />

people’s attitudes to these exciting technologies.<br />

Speaker: James Taylor, CEO, Decision Management<br />

Solutions<br />

10:40-11:25am<br />

s Track 2: Case Study<br />

Speaker: Dean Abbott, President, Abbott <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

11:05-11:25am<br />

l Track 1: Crowdsourcing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Wikipedia<br />

Solving the Last Mile: Focusing<br />

Global Intelligence on Your Data<br />

As companies gather and collect more and more data<br />

across their organizations, the “last mile” of actionable<br />

insights based on that data has become increasingly<br />

crucial to success. Public contests provide a potent,<br />

rapidly expanded means to facilitate vastly better<br />

predictions for your companies, by accessing over 16,000<br />

leading data scientists around the world who compete<br />

to produce the best results for any given data problem.<br />

By correcting the existing mismatch between companies<br />

needing better predictions and data scientists wanting<br />

access to the most challenging problems and real world<br />

data, public competition proves over and over to be a<br />

“win-win-win”.<br />

Speaker: Mehul Patel, Chief Operating Officer, Kaggle<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 6 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

11:30am-12:15pm<br />

Special Plenary Session<br />

Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Dept.<br />

Homeland Security, & US Postal<br />

Service Office of Inspector General<br />

Becoming an Ace with a Robot as<br />

your Wingman<br />

Humans and computers have strengths that are more<br />

complementary than alike – to the point where a<br />

sophisticated algorithm may be the best “2nd person”<br />

to put on a complex task. By contrasting natural and<br />

artificial intelligence we will explore how to optimize the<br />

man/machine partnership.<br />

Speaker: John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research, Inc.<br />

12:15-12:20pm<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

12:20-12:40pm<br />

Lightning Round of 2-Minute Sponsor<br />

Presentations<br />

12:40-1:40pm<br />

Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />

1:40-2:25pm<br />

Special Plenary Session - Consumer<br />

Applications<br />

Identity Wars: The Battle to Control<br />

Personal Data<br />

Personal data is the doppelganger of the consumer,<br />

her very identity as a commercial being. Open the<br />

floodgates, as most of the vast quantities of enterprise<br />

data generated each day is - one way or another –<br />

personal; data that’s transactional, social, local, mobile<br />

and on and on.<br />

As the leading players jockey for position, control is the<br />

name of the game, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.<br />

We are early in the process of establishing a consumer<br />

identity ecosystem, standing on the cusp of major<br />

developments. New paradigms will be established and<br />

astounding enterprise power stands to be gained. Does<br />

anyone own consumer identity data What precisely does<br />

“ownership” of personal data mean In any case, the<br />

objective is not to own the transaction but to control the<br />

data it generates. Facebook and Google are central, but<br />

dozens of established enterprises and innovative startups<br />

are in the game.<br />

In this special plenary session, Dr. Andreas Weigend will<br />

illuminate where identity data is, where it’s going, and<br />

how to leverage it.<br />

Speaker: Andreas Weigend, weigend.com, Former Chief<br />

Scientist, Amazon.com<br />

2:25-2:35pm<br />

Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />

2:35-2:45pm<br />

Platinum Sponsor Presentation<br />

2:50-3:10pm<br />

l Track 1: Thought Leadership<br />

Case Study: CA General Underwriters<br />

Insurance<br />

Seize the Competitive Future through<br />

a Shared Vision for Value Creation,<br />

Quality Management & Collaboration<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> facilitates “anticipating future needs<br />

so we can actively create the future” (Drucker). Enrich<br />

it and your organization by creating more value from<br />

predictions, managing prediction quality and genuine<br />

collaboration among stakeholder teams. Stakeholders<br />

include your prediction financiers, owners and users<br />

plus analytics developers, implementers and insurers.<br />

Explore “what to do and how to do it” for collaboration,<br />

quality management and value creation plus appreciate<br />

Drucker’s Philosphies, Deming’s Principles, Juran’s<br />

Processes and Ackoff’s Pitfalls. Tribal cultures and their<br />

immune systems are primary inhibitors of collaboration.<br />

To ensure competitive future success of <strong>Predictive</strong><br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>, we need to selectively relax them.<br />

Speakers: Arnold Goodman Arnold Goodman, Founder<br />

& Principal, Collaborative Data Solutions & Stephanie<br />

Behnke, President, California General Underwriters<br />

Insurance Company<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 7 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

s Track 2: Real Estate Market Scoring<br />

Case Study: Altos Research<br />

There & Back Again: Model<br />

Interpretability in Real Estate<br />

Market Scoring<br />

Seasoned predictive analytics practitioners understand<br />

that simple “accuracy” is the beginning of model<br />

validation not the end. Perfect accuracy on your own<br />

training data is trivial. How confident are we in our<br />

predictions during truly unprecedented scenarios The<br />

business builds confidence and optimizes “variance” by<br />

involving itself in the gritty modeling process. Black boxes<br />

are difficult for the business to interpret so improving<br />

robustness often means going back to more transparent<br />

models. Ben will present a case study in local residential<br />

real estate market scoring when non-parametric<br />

ensemble methods were left behind for marginally less<br />

accurate but interpretable linear models.<br />

Speaker: Ben Gimpert Director of Quantitative<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>, Altos Research<br />

3:15-3:35pm<br />

l Track 1: Insurance<br />

Case Study: Alberta Motor Association<br />

Insurance Pricing Models using<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

The use of predictive analytics solutions as a pricing<br />

tool for insurance is a very recent phenomenon<br />

amongst actuaries. This case study examines what<br />

tools were used in the past and what has led to the<br />

adoption of predictive analytics solutions within the<br />

actuarial discipline. Particular emphasis is devoted to<br />

the significant data challenges which are unique to the<br />

insurance pricing sector. At the same time, attendees<br />

will learn the process that was adopted in building these<br />

tools. More importantly, attendees will understand how<br />

to demonstrate the value or benefit of predictive analytics<br />

solutions over existing actuarial tools.<br />

Speaker: Richard Boire, Partner, Boire Filler Group<br />

s Track 2: Branch Location Assessment<br />

Case Study: YMCA<br />

Using Probabilistic Computing to<br />

Optimize YMCA Branch Site Locations<br />

The YMCA operates a network of 2000+ branches,<br />

each of which is a $10M+ special-purpose investment.<br />

Predicting viability of new branch sites and benchmarking<br />

performance potential of existing sites is a high-value<br />

challenge which Seer <strong>Analytics</strong> has worked closely with<br />

the YMCA to tackle.<br />

Seer recently evaluated probabilistic computing models<br />

for retail site location analysis. Seer’s probabilistic models<br />

were developed in a week and were as predictive as a<br />

dedicated suite of logistic regression models developed<br />

over 18 months for the YMCA. The probabilistic models<br />

also generated per-estimate confidence intervals,<br />

offering unique insight into the risk associated with each<br />

prediction.<br />

Speaker: Bill Lazarus, President & CEO, Seer<strong>Analytics</strong><br />

3:40-4:00pm<br />

l Track 1: Insurance<br />

Case Study: Broadspire<br />

The First 24 Hours: Understanding<br />

New Claims<br />

Broadspire, a claim administrator, gets thousands of new<br />

workers’ compensation claims every week. Our internal<br />

methodology uses an expert research database, an<br />

intelligent interview process, and a sophisticated scoring<br />

tool to predict outcomes and resource needs for these<br />

claims as we conduct our three point interviews within 24<br />

hours of the first report. We will present the high dollar<br />

business problem that this method addresses, examine<br />

the development of the system through five years of real<br />

world use, and show the ways in which it has improved<br />

the claim handling process and the bottom line for<br />

Broadspire and its clients.<br />

Speakers: Gary Anderberg, Practice Leader of <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

& Outcomes, Broadspire & Sergo Grigalashvili, Vice<br />

President of Architecture, <strong>Analytics</strong>, Information &<br />

Communication Technology, Crawford & Company<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 8 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

s Track 2: Sponsored Lab<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />

4:35-4:55pm<br />

l Track 1: Econometric Indicators<br />

Case Study: LinkedIn<br />

Econometric Applications & Extracting<br />

Economic Insights from the LinkedIn<br />

Dataset<br />

Using examples from the LinkedIn dataset, this talk<br />

will highlight how applied economic intuition can be a<br />

valuable tool in extracting value from big data. We will<br />

discuss how econometric techniques expand the toolkit<br />

of data scientists, especially when trying to pull causation<br />

out of correlation in observational data. For example,<br />

what site activities are predictive of future engagement<br />

The second part of the talk will show how big data helps<br />

us understand the effects of economic events, especially<br />

with regard to the recent financial crisis. We will discuss<br />

predicting economic indicators and uncover other insights<br />

related to the economy.<br />

Speaker: Scott Nicholson, Senior Data Scientist,<br />

LinkedIn<br />

s Track 2: Net Lift Modeling<br />

Case Study: Market Share Partners<br />

Response Modeling is the Wrong<br />

Modeling: Maximize Impact With<br />

Net Lift Modeling<br />

The true effectiveness of a marketing campaign isn’t<br />

response rate! It’s the incremental impact - that is,<br />

additional revenue directly attributable to the campaign<br />

that would not otherwise have been generated. Yet<br />

traditional targeting criteria are often designed to find<br />

clients that are interested in the product, but would have<br />

bought it whether or not they received a promotion. In<br />

such cases, the incremental impact is insignificant and<br />

the marketing dollars could have been spent elsewhere.<br />

Net Lift Models are designed to maximize incremental<br />

impact by targeting the undecided clients that can be<br />

motivated by marketing. These “swing customers” are<br />

akin to the swing states of a presidential election; data<br />

miners could learn a lot from presidential campaigns.<br />

Beyond targeted marketing, Net Lift methodology delivers<br />

tremendous performance improvements for deployed<br />

churn models - retaining “savables” while avoiding the<br />

adverse “reverse” affects retention outreach triggers for<br />

some customers - as well as other innovative business<br />

applications of this advanced analytical method.<br />

This keynote will demonstrate how to build Net Lift<br />

Models (also referred to as Uplift or Incremental Lift) that<br />

optimize the incremental impact of marketing campaigns,<br />

discussing the pros and cons of multiple core analytical<br />

approaches.<br />

Speaker: Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical<br />

Insights, Market Share Partners<br />

4:00-4:35pm<br />

Break / Exhibits<br />

5:00-5:20pm<br />

l Track 1: Forecasting<br />

Case Study: Wells Fargo Securities<br />

Macroeconomic Forecasting,<br />

Consensus & Individual Forecaster:<br />

A Real-Time Approach<br />

This study provides a real-time short-term<br />

macroeconomic forecasting approach that offers several<br />

advantages over conventional short-term forecasting<br />

procedures. The approach produces more accurate<br />

real-time forecasts compared to those of the Bloomberg<br />

real-time consensus forecast, on average, for major<br />

macroeconomic variables.<br />

This study sheds light on five important areas of<br />

macroeconomic forecasting.<br />

Speaker: Azhar Iqbal, Vice President & Econometrician,<br />

Wells Fargo Securities<br />

s Track 2: Behavior-Based Advertising<br />

Case Study: CompassLabs<br />

Prediction and Optimization Models<br />

for Online Display Advertising<br />

According to eMarketer, the internet’s share of total<br />

media spending will continue to rise, from 15% in<br />

2010 to 20% in 2014 and the growth in online display<br />

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Full Agenda<br />

advertising will outpace total online ad spending through<br />

2014. The trend indicates greater online ad competition<br />

and the weaker and slowly improving economy<br />

means more spending pressure, so how to deliver the<br />

stronger ROI becomes a key success factor for all online<br />

marketers. Today I am introducing a strategy which will<br />

let you get the exact same online display advertising<br />

results with only 55% of the spending.<br />

Speaker: Liwei Ma, Senior Director or <strong>Analytics</strong> &<br />

Insights, Big Fish Games<br />

5:25-5:45pm<br />

l Track 1: Social Data<br />

Case Study: Social Media Research<br />

Foundation<br />

Crowd Photography for Social Media<br />

Crowds of people gather in social media around many<br />

products, services, businesses, and events but they can be<br />

difficult to see and understand. With new free and open<br />

tools, it is now possible to map and measure social media<br />

spaces, capturing the sub-groups and key people within<br />

and between them. Learn how to capture social media<br />

data and quickly generate a visual map of the crowd.<br />

With maps in hand, we will discuss ways they guide a<br />

journey to the key influencers and concepts in the crowd.<br />

Speaker: Marc Smith, Chief Social Scientist, Social Media<br />

Research Foundation<br />

s Track 2: Behavior-Based Advertising<br />

Case Study: CompassLabs<br />

Prediction and Optimization Models<br />

for Online Display<br />

A challenging task in online advertising is to identify a<br />

combination of the right advertisement to right customer<br />

on right website at right time. In this talk, I will present<br />

a data-driven approach we developed to estimate the<br />

likelihood that a user would click an online display<br />

advertisement based on a set of user and webpage<br />

characteristics. We used this model to identify the optimal<br />

campaign and its bid price for an ad space available<br />

for purchase on a real-time ad-exchange. Our model is<br />

currently being used by a startup company in providing<br />

online advertising solutions to Fortune 500 companies.<br />

Speaker: Mahesh Kumar, CEO, Tiger <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

5:50-6:10pm<br />

l Track 1: Social Data<br />

Case Study: Real-world Examples in<br />

Financial Services, Emergency Response<br />

Exploring Social Data: Use Cases for<br />

Real-<strong>World</strong> Application<br />

With billions of social activities passing through the evergrowing<br />

real-time social web each day, companies are<br />

beginning to harness the power of social data. However, in<br />

today’s social data economy, not all social data is created<br />

equal. While all social media data can be valuable, it is a<br />

matter of discovering which type of social data is best suited<br />

for each specific use case. Through this session, participants<br />

will learn from real-world case studies in Financial Services,<br />

Emergency Response, Brand <strong>Analytics</strong> and other industries<br />

about how businesses are applying social data to their<br />

operations to drive value.<br />

Speaker: Chris Moody, President & COO, Gnip<br />

s Track 2: Behavior-Based<br />

Advertising Case Study: Interclick<br />

Data, Data Everywhere: Navigating<br />

the Digital Ecosystem with <strong>Predictive</strong><br />

<strong>Analytics</strong><br />

In today’s digital ecosystem, the challenge marketer’s face<br />

isn’t access, but it is determining the application and value<br />

of data. This presentation will demonstrate how interclick<br />

has pioneered data-driven advertising technologies to find<br />

applicable online audiences to meet digital campaign goals.<br />

Our challenges are testing multiple predictive modeling<br />

techniques on Big Data to build effective audiences and<br />

making algorithms align with multiple goals.<br />

Utilizing statistical data mining techniques such as hypothesis<br />

testing, collaborative filtering, and model ensemble,<br />

we have developed cutting-edge analytics products that<br />

recommend effective audiences with higher response rates<br />

in shorter time. Real results will be presented.<br />

Speaker: Yuan Ren, Data Mining Scientist, Interclick<br />

6:10-7:30pm<br />

Reception / Exhibits<br />

7:30-10:00pm<br />

Bay Area SAS User Group Meeting<br />

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Full Agenda<br />

Tuesday, March 6, 2012<br />

8:00-9:00am<br />

Registration & Breakfast<br />

9:00-9:45am<br />

Keynote<br />

Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />

Speaker: Anne Robinson, Director of Supply Chain<br />

Strategy & <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />

9:45-10:05am<br />

Diamond Sponsor Presentation<br />

10:05-10:35am<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

10:35-11:20am<br />

Expert Panel<br />

Wise Enterprise: Best Practices for<br />

Managing <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Expert Panelists: TBA<br />

11:20-11:40am<br />

Lightning Round of 2-Minute<br />

Sponsor Presentations<br />

11:00-11:20am<br />

Sponsored Lab Session<br />

11:45-12:30pm<br />

l Track 1: Sponsored Lab<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />

s Track 2: Sponsored Lab<br />

Lab Session: Live Topical Demo<br />

12:30-1:30pm<br />

Birds of a Feather Lunch / Exhibits<br />

1:30-2:15pm<br />

Keynote<br />

The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> is powerful, it can help you predict an<br />

event or a behavior at a an individual customer level. It<br />

can help you spot golden nuggets from the deep-widebig<br />

data ocean; But is also one of the techniques which is<br />

not very well understood. With all the recent buzz about<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>, it does seems like a new technique<br />

in the tool box. Is that so In this keynote, we will ground<br />

ourselves in the reality of building and maintaining an<br />

impactful <strong>Predictive</strong> Model and explore questions like<br />

• Is <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> new<br />

• Is it a crystal ball<br />

• Is it perfect<br />

• Can it be built quickly and cheaply<br />

• Is it going to solve all my business problems<br />

• Does it always work<br />

• Can anybody learn how to build a model<br />

Speaker: Piyanka Jain, CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal<br />

Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />

2:15-2:20pm<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

2:20-2:25pm<br />

Gold Sponsor Presentation<br />

2:30-2:50pm<br />

l Track 1: Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Major League Baseball<br />

MLB Pitchers: A Look at the Numbers<br />

Baseball enthusiasts and statisticians have found common<br />

ground in the field of Sabermetrics – the application of<br />

statistics to baseball. Since the installation of the PITCHf/x<br />

tracking system in major league ballparks, data has been<br />

generated on the type, velocity, and displacement for<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 11 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

every pitch thrown in the MLB. We present the findings<br />

from an investigation focused on MLB pitchers leveraging<br />

this treasure trove of information.<br />

In this presentation we investigate how pitchers generate<br />

value. We discuss methods that explore pitching speed<br />

and control data simultaneously. We also identify the<br />

factors that are most important in determining value<br />

generation.<br />

Speaker: Bartev Vartanian, Principal, Dataspora<br />

s Track 2: Retaining Subscribers<br />

Case Study: True-to-Life Anecdotes<br />

Based on Misc. Enterprise<br />

Successes Subscription Survival<br />

Modeling for Fun & Profit<br />

Survival analysis started in reliability engineering and<br />

medical research. More recently it has been used by<br />

marketers to better understand customers in subscription<br />

based businesses. While the basic math doesn’t<br />

change, there are practical differences when applied to<br />

marketing. First, N is huge. Secondly, there are generally<br />

many cohorts driven by marketing questions around<br />

product, offer, price, acquisition source, and various<br />

subscriber properties. In a series of case studies, you will<br />

learn the basic ideas behind subscription survival and<br />

how to calculate average lifetime, LTV, compare cohorts,<br />

and answer what-if questions. The data and code used<br />

are given to participants.<br />

Speaker: Jim Porzak, Senior Data Scientist, Viadeo<br />

2:55-3:15pm<br />

l Track 1: Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: NFL, MLB, & NBA<br />

Competing & Winning with<br />

Sports <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

The field of sports analytics ties together the tools of<br />

data management, predictive modeling and information<br />

systems to provide sports organization a competitive<br />

advantage. The field is rapidly developing based on<br />

new and expanded data sources, greater recognition<br />

of the value, and past success of a variety of sports<br />

organizations. Teams in the NFL, MLB, NBA, as well as<br />

other organizations have found a competitive edge with<br />

the application of sports analytics. The future of sports<br />

analytics can be seen through drawing on these past<br />

successes and the developments of new tools.<br />

Speaker: Benjamin Alamar, Professor of Sports<br />

Management, Menlo College<br />

s Track 2: HR <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: An IT Support Firm<br />

and a Sales Workforce<br />

Creating an Engaged Workforce<br />

Using Statistical Learning<br />

Top-performing organizations consider employee<br />

engagement as a key performance driver. Interviews<br />

and questionnaires are widely used to measure this<br />

engagement, yet results are often unreliable, discrete,<br />

and non-actionable. In this talk, we demonstrate how<br />

statistical learning can be used to estimate engagement<br />

from individuals’ low-level activity data. Using prior<br />

knowledge and Bayesian frameworks, we have built<br />

a probabilistic model that incrementally learns every<br />

employee’s true level of engagement. Results have<br />

helped organizations (an IT support firm and a sales<br />

workforce to date) to form cohesive teams that are more<br />

productive and engaged at the workplace.<br />

Speaker: Salman Taherian, CFO & CIO, Kasra<br />

Technologies<br />

3:15-3:55pm<br />

Breaks / Exhibits<br />

3:55-4:15pm<br />

l Track 1: Enterprise-Wide <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Hewlett Packard,<br />

Global <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Institutionalization of Enterprise<br />

Wide <strong>Analytics</strong> to Help Organizations<br />

Make Better Decisions, Faster<br />

The presentation will talk about how organizations can<br />

leverage the structured and unstructured data within<br />

the enterprise and outside the enterprise to mine the<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 12 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Full Agenda<br />

insights and influence decision making across various<br />

functions. The speakers will share real life application of<br />

enterprise wide analytics in Hewlett Packard and how it<br />

drives business growth and improves profitability for the<br />

corporation. The presentation will demonstrate some<br />

of the cutting edge analytics that helps HP in better<br />

customer targeting, optimize the supply chain, improve<br />

customer experience, leverage the power of social media<br />

analytics, forecasting future scenarios for the business to<br />

win in the marketplace.<br />

Speaker: Rohit Tandon, Vice President of Global<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>, Hewlett Packard<br />

s Track 2: Healthcare <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Pfizer<br />

Right Medicine, Right Patient<br />

Can predictive modeling improve patient care A wealth<br />

of data exists in large healthcare databases on patient<br />

disease characteristics and their response to specific<br />

treatments. Max will discuss some of the technical and<br />

non-technical issues in providing care providers with<br />

quantitative results related to how individual patients<br />

might response to therapies.<br />

Speaker: Max Kuhn, Director of Nonclinical Statistics,<br />

Pfizer<br />

4:20-4:40pm<br />

l Track 1: Education<br />

Case Study: University of Phoenix<br />

Predicting Student Success<br />

With courses of 5-6 weeks in length, there is a narrow<br />

window in which to intervene when a student begins to<br />

struggle with a course. This project used data about a<br />

student’s classroom and online interactions, prior courses<br />

and demographic characteristics to create a system<br />

that prioritizes students based on their likelihood of<br />

successfully completing their current class. Advisers can<br />

use this prioritization to identify students most in need of<br />

academic, time-management, or financial-management<br />

coaching. Challenges and solutions will be discussed, as<br />

will next steps.<br />

Speaker: Rebecca Barber, Manager of Academic<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>, University of Phoenix<br />

s Track 2: Clinical Healthcare<br />

Case Study: Sisters of Mercy Health<br />

Systems<br />

Framework for Detection of Clinical<br />

States & Disease Onset Using<br />

Electronic Health Record (EHR) Data<br />

This case study describes the application of predictive<br />

analytics to the detection of disease onset and clinical<br />

states through the use of electronic health records<br />

(EHR). The framework presented here aims to improve<br />

prediction of a patient’s risk for developing severe sepsis<br />

and septic shock through a risk score generated as a<br />

function of measurements of patient vitals over time. A<br />

risk score threshold of 0.71 was found to yield the highest<br />

sensitivity while minimizing false negatives in the patient<br />

database. This predictive model can also be generalized<br />

to predict outcomes of other application domains.<br />

Speaker: Jeni Fan, Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton<br />

4:45-5:05pm<br />

l Track 1: Agile <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Case Study: Kelley Blue Book<br />

Agile <strong>Analytics</strong>: Model Development<br />

in an Agile Environment<br />

Technology organizations have been using Agile<br />

development for more than 10 years to promote adaptive<br />

planning, development and delivery of software. In this<br />

session, discover how the Kelley Blue Book predictive<br />

analytics organization leverages agile analytics to<br />

increase team collaboration, reduced spin and improve<br />

cross-functional communication/relationships. Agile<br />

analytics has imparted structure in a seemingly<br />

unstructured development process, improved overall<br />

model performance and increased business owner<br />

acceptance. Discussion will provide analysts and analytics<br />

leadership with an effective framework to improve model<br />

efficiency, accuracy and applicability.<br />

Speaker: Shawn Hushman, Vice President of Advanced<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>, Kelley Blue Book<br />

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Full Agenda<br />

s Track 2: Fraud Detection<br />

TBA Session on Fraud Detection<br />

Speaker: Antonia de Medinaceli, Senior Business<br />

Analyst, Elder Research, Inc.<br />

5:10-5:30pm<br />

l Track 1: Non-Profit<br />

Case Study: Volunteers of America,<br />

Chesapeake<br />

Turning Operational Outcome<br />

Metrics into an Actionable <strong>Predictive</strong><br />

Forecasting Model<br />

Analysis of program operation/case management<br />

outcomes often involved weeks of labor to decipher<br />

relationships and identify those that had a meaningful<br />

impact on organizations financial forecast. Nimble<br />

human service non-profits and social service agencies<br />

are starting to leverage the power of open-source<br />

Analytic tools like R and the native algorithms available<br />

to build robust <strong>Predictive</strong> modeling within their budgeting<br />

process. Already committed to a cloud computing<br />

platform and having a limited budget, learn how VOA<br />

leveraged cloud services and open-source components to<br />

create a robust dashboard and reporting solution for our<br />

executive management team.<br />

Speaker: Shyam Desigan, CFO, Volunteers of America,<br />

Chesapeake<br />

s Track 2: Blackbox Trading<br />

Case Study: ZZAlpha<br />

Effective Market Forecasting<br />

in 5 Key Dimension<br />

We demonstrate that a machine learning technique<br />

predicts relative future price in five key dimensions of<br />

the US equities market. The price forecasts answer key<br />

investment questions: In or Out of the market, Value or<br />

Growth style, Large or Small cap, Which is best sector,<br />

and What is the direction of the economic core. Forecasts<br />

are implemented using large ETFs. Returns exceed<br />

benchmarks and risk is reduced. Large Monte Carlo<br />

simulations confirm statistical confidence exceeding 3<br />

sigma (99.7%).<br />

Speaker: Kevin Pratt, Founder & Chief Scientist, ZZAlpha<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 14 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Workshops<br />

Sunday, March 4, 2012<br />

s Full-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

R for <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling: A Hands-On<br />

Introduction<br />

Instructor: Max Kuhn, Director, Nonclinical Statistics,<br />

Pfizer<br />

Intended Audience: Practitioners who wish to learn<br />

how to execute on predictive analytics by way of the<br />

R language; anyone who wants “to turn ideas into<br />

software, quickly and faithfully.”<br />

Knowledge Level: Either hands-on experience with<br />

predictive modeling (without R) or hands-on familiarity<br />

with any programming language (other than R) is<br />

sufficient background and preparation to participate in<br />

this workshop.<br />

Workshop Description: This one-day session provides a<br />

hands-on introduction to R, the well-known open-source<br />

platform for data analysis. Real examples are employed<br />

in order to methodically expose attendees to best<br />

practices driving R and its rich set of predictive modeling<br />

packages, providing hands-on experience and knowhow.<br />

R is compared to other data analysis platforms, and<br />

common pitfalls in using R are addressed.<br />

The instructor, a leading R developer and the creator of<br />

CARET, a core R package that streamlines the process<br />

for creating predictive models, will guide attendees on<br />

hands-on execution with R, covering:<br />

• A working knowledge of the R system<br />

• The strengths and limitations of the R language<br />

• Preparing data with R, including splitting, resampling<br />

and variable creation<br />

• Developing predictive models with R, including<br />

decision trees, support vector machines and ensemble<br />

methods<br />

• Visualization: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA), and<br />

tools that persuade<br />

• Evaluating predictive models, including viewing lift<br />

curves, variable importance and avoiding overfitting<br />

Hardware: Bring Your Own Laptop<br />

Each workshop participant is required to bring their<br />

own laptop running Windows or OS X. The software<br />

used during this training program, R, is free and readily<br />

available for download.<br />

Attendees receive an electronic copy of the course<br />

materials and related R code at the conclusion of the<br />

workshop.<br />

Schedule:<br />

• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />

• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />

• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />

• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />

• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />

Wednesday, March 7, 2012<br />

s Full-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

The Best & the Worst of <strong>Predictive</strong><br />

<strong>Analytics</strong>: <strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling<br />

Methods & Common Data Mining<br />

Mistakes<br />

Instructor: John Elder, CEO & Founder, Elder Research,<br />

Inc.<br />

Intended Audience: Interested in the true nuts and bolts<br />

Knowledge Level: Familiar with the basics of predictive<br />

modeling.<br />

Attendees will receive an electronic copy of the course notes<br />

via USB drive.<br />

Workshop Description: <strong>Predictive</strong> analytics has proven<br />

capable of enormous returns across industries – but, with so<br />

many core methods for predictive modeling, there are some<br />

tough questions that need answering:<br />

• How do you pick the right one to deliver the greatest<br />

impact for your business, as applied over your data<br />

• What are the best practices along the way<br />

• And how do you avoid the most treacherous pitfalls<br />

This one-day session surveys standard and advanced<br />

methods for predictive modeling.<br />

Dr. Elder will describe the key inner workings of leading<br />

algorithms, demonstrate their performance with business<br />

case studies, compare their merits, and show you how to<br />

pick the method and tool best suited to each predictive<br />

analytics project. Methods covered include classical<br />

regression, decision trees, neural networks, ensemble<br />

methods, uplift modeling and more.<br />

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Workshops<br />

The key to successfully leveraging these methods is to avoid<br />

“worst practices”. It’s all too easy to go too far in one’s<br />

analysis and “torture the data until it confesses” or otherwise<br />

doom predictive models to fail where they really matter: on<br />

new situations.<br />

Dr. Elder will share his (often humorous) stories from realworld<br />

applications, highlighting the Top 10 common, but<br />

deadly, mistakes. Come learn how to avoid these pitfalls by<br />

laughing (or gasping) at stories of barely averted disaster.<br />

If you’d like to become a practitioner of predictive analytics<br />

– or if you already are, and would like to hone your<br />

knowledge across methods and best practices, this workshop<br />

is for you!<br />

What you will learn:<br />

• The tremendous value of learning from data<br />

• How to create valuable predictive models for your<br />

business<br />

• Best Practices by seeing their flip side: Worst Practices<br />

Schedule:<br />

• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />

• First AM Break from 10:00-10:15am<br />

• Second AM Break from 11:15-11:30am<br />

• Lunch from 12:30-1:15pm<br />

• First PM Break: 2:00-2:15pm<br />

• Second PM Break: 3:15-3:30pm<br />

• Workshops ends at 4:30pm<br />

A free copy of John Elder’s book Statistical Analysis and<br />

Data Mining Applications is included.<br />

Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />

l Full-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

Business Friendly Data Mining<br />

with Decision Management<br />

Instructor: James Taylor, CEO, Decision<br />

Management Solutions<br />

How to talk so your business team will listen, how to listen so<br />

your business team will talk.<br />

Intended Audience: Analytic, business and IT<br />

professionals interested in improving their business with<br />

advanced analytics.<br />

Attendees receive a free copy each of James Taylor’s<br />

books “Decision Management Systems: A Practical Guide<br />

to Business Rules and <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>”, and “PMML in<br />

Action: Unleashing the Power of Open Standards for Data<br />

Mining and <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong>”, a course materials book,<br />

and an official certificate of completion at the conclusion of<br />

the workshop.<br />

Workshop Description: There is a real opportunity to<br />

use predictive analytics to address key business challenges<br />

like fraud detection, risk management, customer next<br />

best activity, customer retention, validation, marketing<br />

segmentation, eligibility and more. Organizations that are<br />

more sophisticated with analytics are three times more<br />

likely to be in the top 17% of top business performers*.<br />

But too often there are gaps in understanding between<br />

business, IT and analytics teams. Gaps in building business<br />

understanding lead to analytic models that don’t have<br />

business value and gaps in implementation lead to models<br />

that take months or years to adopt or never get adopted at<br />

all. Wasted effort and “good” models that just sit on the shelf<br />

gathering dust are the result.<br />

This one day workshop on business friendly data mining with<br />

Decision Management will show you how to:<br />

• Improve business/analytics/IT collaboration and<br />

understanding<br />

• Clarify the data mining goals<br />

• Enable rapid deployment of models in IT/operational<br />

systems<br />

James Taylor will cover the principles of Decision<br />

Management, its application to critical business challenges,<br />

and the appropriate use of available technology to deliver<br />

business friendly data mining in your organization.<br />

You’ll see how identifying and prioritizing the operational<br />

decisions that drive your organization’s success creates a<br />

common language and collaboration environment between<br />

business, IT and the analytics team. You’ll learn how to<br />

model and understand these decisions and so clarify and<br />

focus the problem statements that drive your analytic efforts.<br />

This focus on decisions and the effective use of business rules<br />

and in-database technology also enables rapid deployment<br />

of analytic models in operational systems, to automate<br />

and improve these decisions for sustainable competitive<br />

advantage.<br />

Data miners working with the approach have said:<br />

“Clearly an effective way to get more understanding of a<br />

problem prior to modeling”<br />

“Great interaction with the business team.”<br />

“Much more interactive than our current process to gather<br />

requirements.”<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 16 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Workshops<br />

Schedule:<br />

• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />

• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />

• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />

• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />

• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />

This workshop is focused squarely on solving business<br />

problems. It is vendor-neutral and is for business, IT and<br />

analytic professionals responsible for best practices and<br />

improving the business with analytics<br />

Friday, March 9: Afternoon &<br />

Saturday, March 10, 2012<br />

s Two-Day Workshop<br />

9:00am-4:30pm<br />

Net Lift Models: Optimizing the<br />

Impact of Your Marketing<br />

Instructor: Kim Larsen, Vice President of Analytical<br />

Insights, Market Shares Partners<br />

Intended Audience: Statisticians, business analysts,<br />

and market researchers who build predictive models for<br />

marketing and retention campaigns.<br />

Workshop Description: The true effectiveness of a<br />

marketing campaign isn’t response rate, it is the incremental<br />

impact - that is, additional revenue directly attributable<br />

to the campaign that would not otherwise have been<br />

generated. Yet traditional targeting criteria are often<br />

designed to find clients that are interested in the product,<br />

but would have bought it anyway, whether or not they<br />

received a promotion. In such cases, the incremental impact<br />

is insignificant and the marketing dollars could have been<br />

spent elsewhere.<br />

Net Lift Models are designed to maximize incremental<br />

impact by targeting the undecided clients that can be<br />

motivated by marketing. These “swing customers” are akin<br />

to the swing states of a political election; data miners could<br />

learn a lot from political campaigns.<br />

Beyond targeted marketing, Net Lift methodology delivers<br />

tremendous performance improvements for deployed churn<br />

models - retaining “savables” while avoiding the adverse<br />

“reverse” affects retention outreach triggers for some<br />

customers - as well as other innovative business applications<br />

of this advanced analytical method.<br />

This workshop demonstrates how to build Net Lift Models<br />

that optimize the incremental impact of marketing<br />

campaigns, covering the pros and cons of various core<br />

analytical approaches.<br />

You will learn how to:<br />

• Build net lift models that maximize the difference in<br />

response rates between the clients who receive the offer<br />

and those that do not (the control group)<br />

• Identify good incremental lift predictive variables<br />

• Build net lift models using a variety of techniques<br />

• Evaluate and deploy net models<br />

Specific topics covered include:<br />

• Net lift models versus propensity models<br />

• Example net lift models in action<br />

• Comparison of net lift modeling approaches, including<br />

regression- and non-regression-based methods, and the<br />

Generalized Naive Bayes Classifier<br />

Access to working code and real examples. In order to<br />

illustrate net lift modeling in action and provide options for<br />

“take-home” usage, the instructor will provide 1) example<br />

datasets and 2) examples of code implementing incremental<br />

lift modeling methods, including the following SAS macros:<br />

INCREMENTAL, INFORMATION, GNBCREG, NWOE (net<br />

weight of evidence), and NIV (net information value).<br />

While very advanced attendees may optionally bring their<br />

own laptop and software to try out net lift modeling during<br />

the workshop, this concentrate topics course does not<br />

include enough time for guided hands-on instruction; it is<br />

not designed or intended as a “hands-on” training program.<br />

Schedule:<br />

• Workshop starts at 9:00am<br />

• Morning Coffee Break at 10:30-11:00am<br />

• Lunch provided at 12:30-1:15pm<br />

• Afternoon Coffee Break at 2:30-3:00pm<br />

• End of the Workshop: 4:30pm<br />

This workshop is offered in cooperation and special<br />

arrangement with SAS Institute.<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 17 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Keynote Bios<br />

Piyanka Jain<br />

CEO, Aryng.com, Former PayPal<br />

Business <strong>Analytics</strong> Head<br />

Piyanka Jain’s interest lies in deriving actionable insights<br />

from data to enable informed trade-offs and decision<br />

making. She enjoys problem solving and finds herself<br />

driven towards empowering business professionals<br />

to make better data driven business decision through<br />

Aryng’s “Data to Decisions” framework she teaches.<br />

With Aryng, she is creating an organization to drive<br />

business transformation through the power of analytics.<br />

Before founding Aryng, she was heading the NA Business<br />

<strong>Analytics</strong> at PayPal, leading strategic analytics, managing<br />

and setting agenda for the team, defining strategic<br />

roadmap to find NA business drivers. At PayPal, she and<br />

her team have delivered several high impact projects<br />

including product portfolio analysis, merchant lifecycle<br />

analysis, Voice of Customer analysis, Next Best Product<br />

Model for Merchant with $84+ mm revenue impact.<br />

Prior to this, Piyanka drove direct measurable revenue<br />

impact of $18 mm through Strategic/Marketing<br />

analytics in partnership with Adobe Product Marketing<br />

and Relationship Marketing team. Within Marketing<br />

Operations and <strong>Analytics</strong> department, her role was to<br />

lead the organization into learning more about their<br />

products and customers through establishing appropriate<br />

engagement model with BU and rigorous mining of<br />

data. Within Relationship Marketing, Piyanka and her<br />

team’s role involved designing and analyzing campaigns,<br />

creating and executing appropriate segmentation and<br />

targeting strategy, Fine tuning messaging, creatives and<br />

offers by Test & Control and improving targeting and<br />

increasing marketable universe by building response<br />

models and propensity models.<br />

Anne Robinson<br />

Director of Supply Chain Strategy<br />

& <strong>Analytics</strong>, Verizon Wireless<br />

Bio is forthcoming.<br />

Keynote: Influencers, Skeptics, and Data Geeks<br />

Keynote: The Five Myths of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 18 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Keynote Bios<br />

Eric Siegel<br />

Program Chair,<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />

The president of Prediction Impact, Inc., Eric Siegel<br />

is an expert in predictive analytics and data mining<br />

and a former computer science professor at Columbia<br />

University, where he won the engineering school’s award<br />

for teaching, including graduate-level courses in machine<br />

learning and intelligent systems - the academic terms<br />

for predictive analytics. After Columbia, Dr. Siegel cofounded<br />

two software companies for customer profiling<br />

and data mining, and then started Prediction Impact in<br />

2003, providing predictive analytics services and training<br />

to mid-tier through Fortune 100 companies.<br />

Dr. Siegel is the instructor of the acclaimed training<br />

program, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> for Business, Marketing<br />

and Web, and the online version, <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong><br />

Applied. He has published over 20 papers and articles in<br />

data mining research and computer science education,<br />

has served on 10 conference programme committees,<br />

has chaired a AAAI Symposium held at MIT, and is the<br />

founding chair of <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong>.<br />

Keynote: Persuasion by the Numbers: Optimize<br />

Marketing Influence by Predicting It<br />

For more speaker bio’s please visit<br />

www.predictiveanalyticworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012/speakers.php<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 19 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Registration<br />

www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/register.php<br />

2 Day Conference Pass<br />

Monday 3/5 and Tuesday 3/6<br />

2 Day PAW / TAW Combo Pass<br />

Monday 3/5 to Wednesday 3/7<br />

2 Day PAW / 3 Day eMetrics Combo Pass<br />

Monday 3/5 to Wednesday 3/7<br />

Social Networking Pass<br />

Monday 3/5 or Tuesday 3/6 (Access to Exhibit Hall and Keynotes Only)<br />

Early Bird<br />

ENDS JAN 20<br />

Regular<br />

Price<br />

ENDS MAR 2<br />

Onsite Price<br />

$1,690 $1,890 $2,090<br />

$2,180 $2,380 $2,580<br />

$2,540 $2,790 $3,090<br />

$150 $150 $150<br />

Exhibit Hall Only Passes $25 $25 $45<br />

PAW Workshops (see Overview)<br />

Hands-On Intro to R<br />

Sunday 3/4 – full day<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> Modeling Methods<br />

Wednesday 3/7 - full day<br />

Early Bird<br />

ENDS JAN 20<br />

Regular<br />

Price<br />

ENDS MAR 2<br />

Onsite Price<br />

$895 $995 $995<br />

$895 $995 $995<br />

Business Friendly Data Mining<br />

Thursday 3/8 - full day<br />

$895 $995 $995<br />

Net Lift Modeling<br />

Friday 3/9 – Saturday 3/10 (2 day)<br />

eMetrics Marketing Optimization Summit Workshops<br />

These workshops, co-located with PAW, cover hot topics in web analytics<br />

and online marketing optimization, but may not include content on<br />

predictive analytics. You may register for these workshops as part of the PAW<br />

registration process.<br />

$1,295 $1,495 $1,495<br />

Early Bird<br />

ENDS JAN 20<br />

Regular<br />

Price<br />

ENDS MAR 2<br />

Onsite Price<br />

Introduction to Web <strong>Analytics</strong> 101 $850 $900 $1,000<br />

Applying Web <strong>Analytics</strong> 102 $850 $900 $1,000<br />

Pimp Your Reports $850 $900 $1,000<br />

Roadmap to Online: <strong>Analytics</strong> Success $850 $900 $1,000<br />

Google <strong>Analytics</strong> Users’ Great Event<br />

This GA users’ conference, co-located with PAW, cover hot topics in web<br />

analytics, but may not include content on predictive analytics. You may<br />

register for these workshops as part of the PAW registration process.<br />

User Conference<br />

Day 1 - Thursday, March 8, 2012<br />

Training Workshops<br />

Day 2 - Friday, March 8, 2012<br />

Both Days<br />

March 8 & 9, 2012<br />

Early Bird<br />

ENDS JAN 20<br />

Regular<br />

Price<br />

ENDS MAR 2<br />

Onsite Price<br />

$445 $495 $595<br />

$445 $495 $595<br />

$795 $895 $995<br />

Includes breakfasts, lunches, priceless networking during coffee breaks, the PAW Reception, and full access to program sessions and sponsor expositions.<br />

Bring the Team Offer<br />

Each additional attendee from the same company registered at the same time receives an extra $200 off the Two Day Pass.<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 20 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012


Hotel & Location<br />

Hotel Rooms and Location:<br />

<strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong><br />

San Francisco Marriott Marquis<br />

55 Fourth Street<br />

San Francisco, CA 94103<br />

Reservations: 1-800-228-9290<br />

Phone: 1-703-845-1010<br />

Fax: 1-703-820-6425<br />

There are a limited number of rooms at the San<br />

Francisco Marriott Marquis which can be booked at<br />

the <strong>Predictive</strong> <strong>Analytics</strong> <strong>World</strong> Group Rate of $249<br />

plus taxes for a single or double room. To guarantee<br />

the group rate, reservations must be completed by<br />

February 13. Reservations can be made by calling 800-<br />

228-9290 and referencing Data Driven Business Week.<br />

Reservations must be received on or before<br />

February 13th, 2012 to guarantee the group rate.<br />

Hotel Highlights<br />

Rising 39 stories high in the skyline, the magnificent<br />

Marriott Marquis San Francisco Hotel exudes an<br />

essence of modern luxury and the convenience of an<br />

extraordinary downtown San Francisco hotel. Just<br />

south of Market Street, this San Francisco, California<br />

hotel next to the Moscone Convention Center is<br />

steps away from the Yerba Buena Gardens, renowned<br />

museums and cultural attractions, world-class shopping<br />

on Union Square, and AT&T Park, home of the<br />

San Francisco Giants. Enjoy inspiring penthouse views<br />

and cocktails at The View Lounge or the finest contemporary<br />

cuisine at Mission Grille before retiring to<br />

luxuriously appointed San Francisco hotel rooms and<br />

suites. Renowned as a meeting hotel in San Francisco,<br />

California, this business hotel provides flexible and<br />

expansive event venues to accommodate both grand<br />

and intimate San Francisco hotel receptions. Whether<br />

in town for business or pleasure, experience San Francisco<br />

at the Marriott Marquis hotel in San Francisco,<br />

CA where you’re sure to leave your heart.<br />

© 2012 Rising Media, Inc. 21 www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/sanfrancisco/2012

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