The Market for Aviation Turbofan Engines - Forecast International
The Market for Aviation Turbofan Engines - Forecast International
The Market for Aviation Turbofan Engines - Forecast International
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<strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Product Code #F640<br />
A Special Focused <strong>Market</strong> Segment Analysis by:
<strong>Aviation</strong> Gas Turbine <strong>Forecast</strong><br />
Analysis 1<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong><br />
<strong>Engines</strong><br />
2011-2020<br />
Table of Contents<br />
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................2<br />
Introduction................................................................................................................................................................2<br />
Trends..........................................................................................................................................................................3<br />
<strong>Market</strong> Focus .............................................................................................................................................................3<br />
Competitive Environment.......................................................................................................................................4<br />
Figure 1 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Unit Production 2011 - 2020 (Bar Graph) .................................................................................7<br />
Figure 2 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Value of Production 2011 - 2020 (Bar Graph)...........................................................................7<br />
Manufacturers Review.............................................................................................................................................8<br />
<strong>Market</strong> Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................10<br />
Table 1 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ................................................11<br />
Table 2 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020.................................................23<br />
Figure 3 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Unit Production % <strong>Market</strong> Share by Type 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart) ........................................35<br />
Figure 4 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Value Statistics % <strong>Market</strong> Share by Type 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart).........................................35<br />
Table 3 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Unit Production % <strong>Market</strong> Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020 ....................................36<br />
Table 4 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Value Statistics % <strong>Market</strong> Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020.....................................38<br />
Figure 5 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Unit Production % <strong>Market</strong> Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart) ......................................................40<br />
Figure 6 - <strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Value Statistics % <strong>Market</strong> Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart).......................................................40<br />
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................41<br />
* * *<br />
©2011 September 2011
Product Code F640<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
PROGRAMS<br />
<strong>The</strong> following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.)<br />
Aviadvigatel JSC <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> CFM56<br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> LEAP-X<br />
Engine Alliance GP7000<br />
Eurojet EJ200<br />
GE Honda HF120<br />
General Electric CF6-80C2/E1<br />
General Electric CF34<br />
General Electric F110<br />
General Electric F404/F414<br />
General Electric GE90<br />
General Electric GEnx<br />
General Electric/Rolls-Royce F136<br />
Honeywell HTF7000<br />
Honeywell TFE731<br />
<strong>International</strong> Aero <strong>Engines</strong> V2500<br />
Motor Sich/Progress (ZMKB) <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
PowerJet SaM146<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada JT15D<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW300 Series<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW500<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW600<br />
Pratt & Whitney F100<br />
Pratt & Whitney F117<br />
Pratt & Whitney F119<br />
Pratt & Whitney F135<br />
Pratt & Whitney PW1000G<br />
Pratt & Whitney PW4000<br />
Rolls-Royce AE 3007<br />
Rolls-Royce BR700 Series<br />
Rolls-Royce RB211/Trent<br />
Rolls-Royce Tay<br />
Rolls-Royce Turbomeca Adour<br />
Saturn <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
Snecma M88<br />
Volvo/GE RM12<br />
Williams <strong>International</strong> FJ33/FJ44<br />
©2011 September 2011
Product Code F640<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Aviation</strong> <strong>Turbofan</strong> <strong>Engines</strong><br />
This analysis explores the market <strong>for</strong>ces influencing the<br />
aero-turbine engine market and indicates the direction in<br />
which the aero-turbine industry is headed over the next<br />
10 years.<br />
<strong>The</strong> programs reviewed <strong>for</strong> this analysis are covered in<br />
depth in the reports found in the <strong>Aviation</strong> Gas Turbine<br />
<strong>Forecast</strong>. <strong>The</strong>se programs are:<br />
Aviadvigatel PS-90A<br />
CFM56<br />
CFM LEAP-X<br />
Engine Alliance GP7200<br />
Eurojet EJ200<br />
General Electric CF6<br />
General Electric CF34<br />
General Electric F110<br />
GE/Rolls-Royce F136<br />
General Electric F404<br />
General Electric F414<br />
General Electric GE90<br />
General Electric GEnx<br />
HAL GTX-35VS<br />
Honeywell HTF7000<br />
Honeywell TFE731<br />
<strong>International</strong> Aero <strong>Engines</strong> V2500<br />
Motor Sich/Progress D-18T<br />
Motor Sich/Progress D-436, D-436T<br />
Klimov RD-33<br />
Introduction<br />
* * *<br />
Klimov RD-35<br />
Klimov RD-93<br />
PowerJet SaM146<br />
Pratt & Whitney F100<br />
Pratt & Whitney F117<br />
Pratt & Whitney F119<br />
Pratt & Whitney F135<br />
Pratt & Whitney PW1000G<br />
Pratt & Whitney PW4000<br />
Pratt & Whitney PW6000<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada JT15D<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW300<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW500<br />
Pratt & Whitney Canada PW600<br />
Rolls-Royce AE 3007<br />
Rolls-Royce BR700<br />
Rolls-Royce RB211<br />
Rolls-Royce Tay<br />
Rolls-Royce Trent<br />
RR/Turbomeca Adour<br />
Saturn AL-31F/FN<br />
Saturn AL-55 F/I<br />
Snecma M88<br />
Volvo/GE RM12<br />
Williams <strong>International</strong> FJ33<br />
Williams <strong>International</strong> FJ44<br />
©2011
<strong>Aviation</strong> Gas Turbine <strong>Forecast</strong><br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> LEAP-X<br />
Outlook<br />
<br />
<br />
LEAP-X is being offered on Airbus's A320neo family<br />
3D woven resin transfer molding composite technology<br />
used in front fan<br />
First demonstrator core testing completed in 2010<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
Unit Production <strong>Forecast</strong><br />
2011-2020<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020<br />
Units 0 0 1 2 34 211 466 589 677 719<br />
Units<br />
Orientation<br />
Description. Twin-spool, high-bypass ratio advanced<br />
technology aviation turbofan engine.<br />
Sponsor. <strong>The</strong> LEAP-X is being developed by CFM<br />
<strong>International</strong> (a GE and Snecma partnership) and<br />
several other manufacturers.<br />
Power Class. 20,000-30,000 lbst (88.9-133.4 kN)<br />
Status. In development <strong>for</strong> the Airbus A320neo and<br />
Comac C919.<br />
Total Produced. As of March 2011, one<br />
demonstrator core was assembled. A second core is in<br />
assembly <strong>for</strong> 2011 testing, and a third core will run in<br />
2012. First engine to test is expected in 2013, and flight<br />
testing will begin later that year.<br />
Application. <strong>The</strong> LEAP-X is in development <strong>for</strong><br />
Airbus's A320neo and Comac's C919 narrowbody<br />
airliners.<br />
Price Range. List price estimated at $9,500,000 (in<br />
2011 U.S. dollars).<br />
Contractors<br />
Prime<br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> Inc<br />
http://www.cfm56.com, 111 Merchant St, PO Box 15514, Mail Drop Y11, Cincinnati, OH<br />
45215 United States, Tel: + 1 (513) 552-3272, Fax: + 1 (513) 552-3329,<br />
Email: geae.csc@ae.ge.com, Prime<br />
Comprehensive in<strong>for</strong>mation on Contractors can be found in <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>International</strong>'s "<strong>International</strong> Contractors" series. For a detailed description,<br />
go to www.<strong>for</strong>ecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800.<br />
Contractors are invited to submit updated in<strong>for</strong>mation to Editor, <strong>International</strong> Contractors, <strong>Forecast</strong> <strong>International</strong>, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown,<br />
CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@<strong>for</strong>ecast1.com<br />
©2011 May 2011
Page 2<br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> LEAP-X<br />
<strong>Aviation</strong> Gas Turbine <strong>Forecast</strong><br />
Technical Data<br />
Design Features. <strong>The</strong> LEAP-X turbofan leverages technologies from GE's GE90 and GEnx engines, and also<br />
from CFM partner Snecma. Engine bypass ratio is 10:1, with a pressure ratio of greater than 20:1.<br />
Fan. <strong>The</strong> LEAP-X has 18 composite fan blades, and a fan diameter that is approximately 75 inches, depending on<br />
the application. <strong>The</strong> fan is made from a 3D woven resin transfer molding process. <strong>The</strong> fan case is built from<br />
advanced composites.<br />
LP Compressor. Third-generation, 3D aero designed. Number of stages TBA.<br />
HP Compressor. 10-stage.<br />
Combustor. GE's Twin-Annular Pre-Swirl (TAPS2).<br />
HP Turbine. Two-stage, with advanced coatings <strong>for</strong> heat resistance. Ceramic matrix composite (CMC) shrouds are<br />
being evaluated.<br />
LP Turbine. Number of stages TBA.<br />
LEAP-X. <strong>The</strong> baseline LEAP-X engine will power the<br />
Airbus A320neo family of narrowbody aircraft.<br />
CFM's LEAP-X began as the LEAP56 technology<br />
development program in conjunction with parent<br />
companies Snecma and General Electric. <strong>The</strong> company<br />
used the existing CFM56-5B and -7B engines as a<br />
baseline, targeting improvements of 10-15 percent<br />
lower specific fuel consumption, a 15-25 percent<br />
reduction in maintenance costs, a 25 percent increase of<br />
Variants/Upgrades<br />
Program Review<br />
LEAP-X1C. <strong>The</strong> LEAP-X1C variant of the base engine<br />
is being developed <strong>for</strong> Comac's C919.<br />
on-wing time, and a 50 percent decrease in NOx<br />
emissions. <strong>The</strong> key to these goals has been leveraging<br />
technologies from GE's GE90 and GEnx engines, as<br />
well as composite fan technology being developed by<br />
Snecma. Other technologies being implemented are new<br />
super-alloys, 3D resin transfer molding, ceramic matrix<br />
composites, and next-generation 3D aerodynamics.<br />
Related News<br />
Airbus Selects CFM's LEAP-X Engine <strong>for</strong> A320neo – Airbus has selected CFM <strong>International</strong>'s advanced<br />
LEAP-X engine as part of its offering <strong>for</strong> the new A320neo (new engine option). <strong>The</strong> new airplane/engine<br />
combination could enter commercial service by spring 2016. CFM launched the new LEAP-X engine as a totally<br />
new centerline engine in 2008. Since then, the company has held extensive discussions with potential customers<br />
around the globe, both airlines and leasing companies, to help define LEAP-X engine configuration to ensure that it<br />
meets their fundamental requirements: reliability, fuel efficiency, maintenance costs, and environmental<br />
per<strong>for</strong>mance. (CFM, 12/10)<br />
<strong>Market</strong> Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the online E-<strong>Market</strong> Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at<br />
www.<strong>for</strong>ecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.<br />
Timetable<br />
Month Year Major Development<br />
2006 CFM launches LEAP56 technology development program<br />
2008 CFM launches LEAP-X engine program<br />
Nov 2010 LEAP-X1C launched on C919<br />
Dec 2010 Airbus offers LEAP-X on A320neo<br />
2010 eCore Demonstrator 1 testing completed<br />
May 2011
<strong>Aviation</strong> Gas Turbine <strong>Forecast</strong> Page 3<br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> LEAP-X<br />
Month Year Major Development<br />
Mid- 2011 eCore Demonstrator 2 testing scheduled to begin<br />
2012 eCore Demonstrator 3 testing scheduled to begin<br />
2013 First engine to test, and flight testing to begin<br />
<strong>Forecast</strong> Rationale<br />
CFM's LEAP-X engine is in development to power<br />
narrowbody aircraft from Airbus and China's Comac.<br />
<strong>The</strong> Airbus A320neo (new engine option) is essentially<br />
a re-powering of the existing airframes with a few<br />
aerodynamic tweaks, whereas the C919 is a clean-sheet<br />
design. <strong>The</strong> new engine is intended to replace the<br />
CFM56 series, which by all accounts has been a hugely<br />
successful program <strong>for</strong> parent companies General<br />
Electric and Snecma.<br />
Continuing High Engine Production<br />
As of November 2010, 21,000 CFM56 engines were<br />
delivered – a testament to the strong demand <strong>for</strong> the<br />
engine powering Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320. Since<br />
2007, CFM has been delivering over 1,200 engines<br />
annually.<br />
In December 2010, Airbus announced it had selected<br />
the LEAP-X as an engine option <strong>for</strong> the A320neo and<br />
that it could enter service by spring 2016. <strong>The</strong> C919 is<br />
also expected to enter service that same year.<br />
Boeing Narrowbody Strategy<br />
Since the 737-300 entered service in 1994, Boeing's 737<br />
series has used the CFM56 exclusively on it and<br />
subsequent models. <strong>The</strong> company has yet to announce<br />
whether it will offer next-generation engines on the<br />
existing 737NG airframe or redesign the aircraft<br />
completely. Whichever direction Boeing takes with its<br />
popular narrowbody, our assumption is that it will<br />
follow suit with Airbus and offer both the LEAP-X and<br />
the competing Pratt & Whitney PW1000 series geared<br />
turbofan as power options.<br />
In total, we estimate LEAP-X production at 2,699<br />
engines during the 10-year <strong>for</strong>ecast period.<br />
Ten-Year Outlook<br />
ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION<br />
Designation or Program High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative<br />
Thru 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total<br />
CFM <strong>International</strong> Inc<br />
LEAP-X A319Neo<br />
LEAP-X A320Neo<br />
LEAP-X A321Neo<br />
0 0 0 0 0 0 8 35 50 55 57 205<br />
0 0 0 1 2 32 187 378 452 498 507 2,057<br />
0 0 0 0 0 1 11 40 56 60 61 229<br />
LEAP-X C919<br />
0 0 0 0 0 1 5 13 31 64 94 208<br />
Subtotal 0 0 0 1 2 34 211 466 589 677 719 2,699<br />
Total 0 0 0 1 2 34 211 466 589 677 719 2,699<br />
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All products provided on DVD or CD, or in Real-Time, are sold and licensed<br />
<strong>for</strong> single-site, single-user applications. Multi-site, multi-user licensing is<br />
available. Call 203.270.0633 or contact sales@<strong>for</strong>ecast1.com to discuss<br />
your requirements.<br />
22 Commerce Road, Newtown, CT 06470 USA • Phone: 203.426.0800 • Fax: 203.426.0223<br />
Toll-Free (U.S. and Canada): 800.451.4975 • E-mail: sales@<strong>for</strong>ecast1.com • Website: www.<strong>for</strong>ecastinternational.com
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