The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems - Forecast International

The Market for UAV
Reconnaissance Systems
Product Code #F662
A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
Analysis 1
The Market for
UAV Reconnaissance Systems
2011-2020
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................2
Introduction................................................................................................................................................................4
Trends..........................................................................................................................................................................6
Competitive Environment.....................................................................................................................................11
Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................13
Table 1 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020 ................................................28
Table 2 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2011 - 2020.................................................42
Figure 1 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production 2011 - 2020 (Bar Graph) ...............................................................................56
Figure 2 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value of Production 2011 - 2020 (Bar Graph).........................................................................56
Table 3 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020 ....................................57
Table 4 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2011 - 2020.....................................59
Figure 3 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production % Market Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart) ......................................................61
Figure 4 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value Statistics % Market Share 2011 - 2020 (Pie Chart).......................................................61
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................62
* * *
©2011 October 2011

Product Code F662
The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
PROGRAMS
The following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.)
Amber/Gnat
BREVEL
Eagle Eye
Fire Scout VTUAV
German VTOL UAVs
HALE UAVs
Hellstar
Hunter
Hypersonic Drones
Indian UAVs
J/AQM-2 & J/AQM-4
KG-135 Sky Robot
Korean UAV Programs
Mirach Series
Pioneer
Predator
Ranger ADS 95
Raven
RQ-3A Darkstar
RQ-4A Global Hawk
Searcher
Shadow 200 TUAV
Sky Warrior
South African UAVs
SPERWER
Swedish UAV Programs
Watchkeeper
©2011 October 2011

Product Code F662
The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
In the Beginning. The first use of remotely operated
vehicles (RPVs) by a military occurred more than 1,500
years ago. These RPVs were kites that dropped bombs,
checked weather and wind changes, and signaled to
other elements indications of a widely dispersed army.
The first unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) in the modern
sense appeared during the First World War. In 1914, a
British engineer tried to build a rad io-controlled
airplane, designed to reduce casualties over France. This
project met with little success.
Near the end of the war, the Kettering Bug de buted.
This was a fl ying bomb made from a r econfigured
biplane. The bug was very rudimentary. The U.S. built
about 50 of these systems, but the war ended before
they could be used in combat.
During World War II, each side e xperimented with
unmanned air vehicles. G ermany developed attack
drones launched from aircraft and flown to the target via
remote control.
The allies experimented with remotely controlled B-17
bombers under the Aphrodite Project. These aircraft, no
longer suitable for combat missions, were packed with
high explosives, flown to a d esignated position over
Europe, and then c rashed into a ta rget by an
accompanying control aircraft. The allies launched 11
of these remotely controlled bombers during the war.
None were very successful and they proved easy to
shoot down.
Some B-17s were c onverted to DB-17Ps and ser ved
with the 3215th Drone Squadron at Patrick Air Force
Base in Florida. During "Operation Greenhouse," a
series of atm ospheric nuclear weapon tests conducted
by the U.S. in the spring of 1951 with radio-controlled
B-17 aircraft measured bl ast and the rmal effects a nd
collected radioactive cloud samples.
Not for another two decades and an other war w ould
unmanned air vehicles once more be called into combat
service.
The U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War provided the
impetus for the large-scale deployment of UA Vs. T o
reduce the risk to air cre ws, the U.S. began to employ
UAVs to reconnoiter potential targets proximate to
heavy air defense sites. During the U.S. involvement in
Southeast Asia, the Teledyne Ryan Model 147
performed a to tal of 3,435 operational sorties over
North Vietnam, with an 84 percent survival rate.
Despite the undisputed success of the UAV over North
Vietnam, at the end of the war, the U.S. concluded such
Introduction
operations and relegated these systems to (then) more
traditional roles as airborne targets and simulators.
Once combat operations ended, the pressure on the U.S.
military to reduce casualties disappeared and so did the
desire for UAVs. Unmanned air vehicles suffered from
low reliability and a lack of visibility among important
leaders within the government and military.
Furthermore, many aviators within the U.S. military saw
UAVs as a threat to t heir existence, fearing that
machines would replace them in the cockpit.
In 1981, a U.S. Gov ernment Accountability Office
(GAO) report noted, "Remotely piloted vehicles seem to
suffer from the attitude of users and n ot from
technological drawbacks or unfeasible systems."
Furthermore, some in the services sa w unmanned air
vehicles competing with aircraft for funding.
Although these are examples from U.S. experie nce,
similar reactions have occurred from services in Europe
and elsewhere. This view ha s turned up time and tim e
again, but its prevalence is slowly diminishing.
The unmanned air vehicle is not a rep lacement for
manned aircraft, but a supplement to these formations.
The proper use of UAVs is to take the human element
one step further back from actual combat. The UAV
adds one more layer of weaponry between human
soldiers and their opponents. Unmanned air vehicles
would accompany human-piloted flights to deal with
targets of opportunity or to lead an attack in order to
absorb some of that which is th rown up by the air
defense systems in the area. They would be used to take
out air defense radars (both fixed and mobile) and to
attack armored columns, marshaling yards, railroad
stations, and bridges. Where possible, these systems are
to perform missions too dangerous for manned
platforms or, m ore accurately, that are a waste of
valuable human resources. Furt hermore, companies
design and market these systems as capable of operation
by individuals with little or no aviation experience and,
thereby, no longer a threat to pilots.
Combat Experiences. Unmanned air vehicles played a
significant role in Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon
(Operation Peace for Galilee). Syria's SAM batteries in
the Bekaa Valley caused c onsiderable problems for
Israeli aircraft.
To counter this threat, the Israelis used unmanned air
vehicles as decoys. The UAVs were sent in ahead of a
flight of Wild Weasel-type aircraft to trick the Syrians
Continued…
©2011

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
Watchkeeper
Outlook
Production under way
More delays push back Watchkeeper program
Hermes 450 supporting British troops in Afghanistan as
an interim UAV solution
Watchkeeper to be operational before end of 2011
U.K. interested in a long-endurance UAV system
British troops growing dependent on UAVs to perform
reconnaissance missions
25
20
15
10
5
Unit Production Forecast
2011-2020
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Units 23 24 25 23 22 8 0 0 0 0
Units
Orientation
Description. Unmanned air vehicle.
Sponsor. U.K. Ministry of Defence.
Status. In development. A single Watchkeeper
contractor team – Thales – was selected in 2004 over
Northrop Grumman.
Total Produced. Approximately 10 WK 450
Watchkeeper UAVs were completed by the end of
2010. The U.K. had wanted to have a preliminary
Watchkeeper UAV system in service by 2006, but this
might not occur until late 2011.
The Watchkeeper UAVs will initially be fielded with
the 32nd Royal Artillery Regiment, which had operated
the Phoenix UAV system.
Application. To perform reconnaissance and
surveillance missions, as well as target location and
designation, both day and night and through heavy
cloud cover.
Price Range. The complete Watchkeeper UAS may
cost $18.5 million, with the air vehicle having a unit
price of $800,000.
Contractors
Prime
Thales Holding UK Ltd
http://www.thalesgroup.com/uk, 2 Dashwood Lang Rd, The Bourne Business Park,
Addlestone, KT15 2NX Surrey, United Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1932 824 800,
Fax: + 44 1932 824 948, Email: uk.enquiries@thalesgroup.com, Prime
Subcontractor
ABSL Power Solutions Ltd
APPH (Bolton) Ltd
http://www.abslpower.com, Denchi House, Thurso Business Park, Thurso, KW14 7XW
Caithness, United Kingdom, Tel: + 44 0 1865 408 761, Email: enquiries@abslpower.com
(Emergency Backup Battery)
http://www.apph.co.uk, Great Bank Rd, Windgates Ind. Park, Westhoughton, Bolton, BL5
3XN Lancashire, United Kingdom, Tel: + 44 44 1942 851900, Fax: + 44 44 1942 851901,
Email: sales@apphboltonltd.co.uk (Landing Gear)
©2011 July 2011

Page 2
Watchkeeper
Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
Bental Industries Ltd http://www.bental.co.il, Kibbutz Merom Golan, 12436 Israel, Tel: + 972 4 6960199,
Fax: + 972 4 6960187, Email: motion@bental.co.il (Starter-Generators)
Cobham plc
Cubic Communications Data Link
Systems
Elop Electro-Optics Ltd
LogicaCMG
Marshall Specialist Vehicles Ltd
Rockwell Collins Control
Technologies
Silver Arrow LP
Supacat Ltd
UAV Engines Ltd
Xcel Power Systems Ltd
http://www.cobham.com, Brook Rd, Wimborne, BH21 2BJ Dorset, United Kingdom,
Tel: + 44 1 202 822 020, Fax: + 44 1 202 849 401 (Antenna and Composite Materials)
http://www.cubic.com, 9333 Balboa Ave, San Diego, CA 92123 United States,
Tel: + 1 (858) 277-6780, Fax: + 1 (858) 505-1523 (Datalink)
http://www.el-op.com, Advanced Technology Park, PO Box 1165, Rehovot, 76111 Israel,
Tel: + 972 8 938 6211, Fax: + 972 8 938 6237, Email: info@el-op.co.il (Optical Payload)
http://www.logicacmg.com, 75 Hampstead Rd, Stephenson House, London, NW1 2PL
United Kingdom, Tel: + 44 20 7637 9111, Fax: + 44 20 7468 7006 (Command and
Battlespace Management)
http://www.marshallsv.com, The Airport, Newmarket Rd, Cambridge, CB5 8RX United
Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1223 373900, Fax: + 44 1223 373064, Email: info@marshallsv.com
(Shelter)
http://www.rockwellcollins.com, 3721 Macintosh Dr, Vint Hill Tech Park, Warrenton, VA
20187 United States, Tel: + 1 (540) 428-3300, Fax: + 1 (540) 428-3301,
Email: jdotan@athenati.com (Flight Control Unit)
http://www.elbitsystems.com, 24 Einstein St, Advanced Technology Park, Nes Ziyona,
75706 Israel, Tel: + 972 8 9306 111, Fax: + 972 8 9306 112 (Air Vehicle)
http://www.supacat.com, The Airfield, Dunkeswell Honiton, Devon, EX14 4LF United
Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1 404 891 777, Fax: + 44 1 404 891 776, Email: call@supacat.com
(Ground Vehicles)
http://www.uavenginesltd.co.uk, Lynn Ln, Shenstone, Lichfield, WS14 0DT United
Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1 543 4 81819, Fax: + 44 1 543 487393,
Email: uav@uavenginesltd.co.uk (Engine)
Brunswick Rd, Cobbs Wood, Ashford, TN23 1EB United Kingdom,
Tel: + 44 1233 623404, Fax: + 44 1233 641777, Email: xcelpower@compuserve.com
(Power Supply Units)
NOTE(S): Thales will base its UAV business in the United Kingdom. The air vehicle will be built in the U.K. by Thales and Silver
Arrow, a subsidiary of Elbit Systems, at a facility in Leicester. Boeing is responsible for making Watchkeeper interoperable with U.S.
forces. Flight Refuelling Ltd, a subsidiary of Cobham, is supporting this program, along with FR HiTEMP, Chelton, Chelton
Radomes, Slingsby Aviation, and ERA Technology. Thales and Elbit established UAV Tactical Systems Ltd (U-TacS) to work on the
Watchkeeper program.
Praxis High Integrity Systems is taking the lead on systems safety engineering, providing safety program management and systems
and human factors safety consultancy. Vega Group plc is responsible for the training program. Rolls-Royce supplies the electric
power generators for the Watchkeeper GCS. The GCS is mounted on a platform provided by Marshall Specialist Vehicles Ltd.
Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International's "International Contractors" series. For a detailed description,
go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800.
Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown,
CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@forecast1.com
Technical Data
Metric Metric U.S. U.S.
Hermes 180 Hermes 450 Hermes 180 Hermes 450
Dimensions
Length 4.43 m 6.1 m 14.5 ft 20 ft
Wingspan 6 m 10.5 m 19.7 ft 34.4 ft
Launch weight (max) 195 kg 450 kg 430 lb 992 lb
Max payload 32 kg 150 kg 70.6 lb 330.8 lb
July 2011

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast Page 3
Watchkeeper
Metric Metric U.S. U.S.
Hermes 180 Hermes 450 Hermes 180 Hermes 450
Performance
Max speed 105 kt 95 kt 105 kt 95 kt
Cruise speed 71 kt 70 kt 71 kt 70 kt
Combat radius 100+ km 200 km 62+ mi 124 mi
Altitude 4,575 m 5,490 m 15,000 ft 18,000 ft
Endurance 10+ hr 20 hr 10+ hr 20 hr
Propulsion. A single UEL 52-horsepower
AR-80-1010 rotary engine powers the Hermes 450. The
air vehicle uses a pusher propeller. The Hermes 180
used a 38-horsepower rotary engine provided by UEL.
The WK 450 uses two UEL AR 741 engines with 38
horsepower apiece.
Control & Guidance. The Hermes 180 and 450 both
feature fully redundant avionics and a fully autonomous
flight, line-of-sight (LOS), and/or satellite
communication datalink. These air vehicles share a
common ground control station (GCS), datalink, and
avionics with the entire Hermes family.
The CoMPASS electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) turret
will be provided by Thales, in cooperation with Elop of
Israel. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) payloads are
being offered by General Atomics (APY-8 Lynx),
Thales (I-MASTER), and Elta (EL/M-2055D) for use in
the Watchkeeper UAV program. Payloads will include
a ground moving target indicator (GMTI).
Additional payloads could be added in the future
(signals intelligence, communications relays, etc.).
Launcher Mode. The Hermes 180 was launched
either by catapult or by runway. The Hermes 450 can
take off from a conventional runway.
Recovery. The Hermes 180 and Hermes 450 can be
recovered by parachute/airbag or via a conventional
landing on a runway.
Warhead. The Watchkeeper will carry armaments in
the future, perhaps including the Thales Lightweight
Multirole Missile (LMM).
Upgrades are expected to be incorporated into the air
vehicles selected to meet the Watchkeeper requirement.
These air vehicles are to carry new payloads in the
future. Performance enhancements could be added to
the air vehicles. The Watchkeeper program originally
Watchkeeper UAV
Source: Thales UK
Variants/Upgrades
included two air vehicles: the WK 180, based on the
Hermes 180, and the WK 450, based on the
Hermes 450.
Other British UAVs include the Kestrel, a blended-wing
design developed by BAE Systems in collaboration with
©2011 July 2011

Page 4
Watchkeeper
Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
Cranfield University. The Raven is a delta-wing UAV
demonstrator developed by BAE Systems. This air
vehicle flew in 2003. The Corax is a modular UAV
Background. The United Kingdom wants to widen
the use of unmanned air vehicles by its armed forces.
Both land-based and maritime systems could be
procured by the U.K.
The British Army is interested in acquiring a small
vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) UAV for use by its
smaller combat units (possibly company and below).
The system would provide these units with an organic
reconnaissance capability for localized missions.
There is growing interest by both the Royal Air Force
and the Royal Navy in using these systems in several
roles, including reconnaissance, surveillance, and target
acquisition.
The U.K.'s main UAV effort is known as Watchkeeper,
which started out as two separate programs known as
Sender and Spectator.
Operations in Afghanistan and Iraq Increase
British Interest in UAVs
The Sender was to be a small tactical UAV for use by
battalion-size units. This system would work in
conjunction with the new Tracked Reconnaissance
Armored Combat Equipment Requirements (TRACER)
vehicle. The air vehicle is expected to have a range of
30 to 50 kilometers. The U.K. issued an Invitation to
Tender for this program in late 1999. A 12-month
assessment phase commenced in 2000. The companies
involved were:
BAE Systems with Bell Helicopter and General
Atomics (offering the Eagle Eye tiltrotor air
vehicle)
Northrop Grumman with Logicon, INRI-UK, Smith
Group, and Ultra Electronics
Lockheed Martin U.K. Government Systems with
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, Hunting
Engineering, and the U.K. Defence Evaluation and
Research Agency (DERA)
Racal Defence Systems with Silver Arrow, Elbit
Systems, DERA, and Cransfield Aerospace
London had planned for the Sender to enter service
around 2008.
The Spectator was to provide a UAV for use by
brigades and division-size units. The Spectator would
be outfitted with a moving-target indicator or SAR and
Program Review
design. The demonstrator project built on the Raven
and other BAE Systems projects.
have a range of 150 kilometers. An Invitation to Tender
for the Spectator's risk-reduction phase was issued in
January 2000. The U.K. wanted this system in service
by 2008.
The Sender and Spectator programs could have added a
further 400 air vehicles to the U.K.'s inventory.
However, the U.K. decided in mid-2000 to merge these
separate requirements into a single program known as
Watchkeeper.
Watchkeeper. The Watchkeeper program is defined as
an intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and
reconnaissance (ISTAR) unmanned system that will
deliver battlefield intelligence to British Army unit
commanders. Watchkeeper will be an important part of
a complementary suite of ISTAR systems, such as
ASTOR and manned reconnaissance aircraft.
The New Chapter of the Strategic Defence Review
highlighted the key role that UAVs will play in
contributing to network capability. Unmanned air
vehicles will improve the U.K.'s ability to find, identify,
and act decisively against a designated enemy. The
UAVs will be linked with "strike" systems, including
artillery, army attack helicopters, or ground attack
aircraft.
Initial Gate approval for Watchkeeper was given in
2000, and the Main Gate decision was expected in
mid-2004. Four companies (Thales, Northrop
Grumman, BAE Systems, and Lockheed Martin) were
invited to undertake the first stage of the assessment
phase and to propose tenders for the second stage.
Northrop Grumman ISS International and Thales (U.K.)
were selected to continue through to the second stage.
These teams included:
Thales (U.K.) team – Aerosystems International,
Elbit Systems Ltd, and QinetiQ
Northrop Grumman ISS International team –
BAE Systems, Detica Ltd, General Dynamics
UK Ltd, STAYSYS Ltd, and Ultra Electronics Ltd
The Thales bid included air vehicles derived from Elbit
Systems' Hermes 180 (WK 180) and Hermes 450
(WK 450).
Northrop Grumman's proposal also offered a
combination of UAVs: the fixed-wing Ranger UAV and
the RQ-8 Fire Scout vertical takeoff and landing tactical
UAV (VTUAV). The Northrop Grumman team
July 2011

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast Page 5
Watchkeeper
includes General Dynamics UK Ltd, BAE Systems,
Ultra Electronics, Detica, STAYSYS, HVR Consulting,
QinetiQ, and RUAG Aerospace.
Thales was selected as the preferred bidder for
Watchkeeper in June 2004 (although the official
announcement was not made until July). The
Watchkeeper UAV was to be flying by 2006, with the
system achieving Full Operational Capability in 2009,
but this did not occur.
Budget shortfalls and rising program costs caused the
U.K. to make changes to Watchkeeper's schedule. A
GBP800 million development and production (Main
Gate) contract was to have been signed in September
2004, but was delayed to April 2005 and then to August
2005. The Watchkeeper UAV will not achieve Initial
Operational Capability until late 2010. A fully
operational system could be available in 2010, but
might slip to 2011. The Watchkeeper is to go to
Afghanistan in 2011.
British officials have cut the number of air vehicle types
to be procured as part of this program from two to one.
The Hermes 180 was dropped in favor of the
Hermes 450. Once the Watchkeeper UAV is fielded,
the U.K. is said to be interested in arming some of these
new air vehicles. An option is for the Watchkeeper to
carry Thales' Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM),
which is based on the Starstreak.
The delay in the arrival of the Watchkeeper UAV
pushed the U.K. to acquire an interim system from
Israel. Elbit Systems has provided its Hermes 450 UAV
to the British Army, which is now operational in Iraq.
The Watchkeeper will initially operate in parallel with
the Thales-led H-450 UAS program.
HERTI. The United Kingdom is working on other
unmanned air vehicle programs. BAE Systems has long
worked on various UAV projects, but with no
production contracts.
BAE Systems is working on the HERTI (High
Endurance Rapid Technology Insertion) UAV program.
This is to be an autonomous system. The first flight of
this UAV was in December 2004 at the Australian
Woomera test range.
Technical Data
Length
5 m
Wingspan 12 m
Weight, Takeoff 450 kg
Weight, Payload 150 kg
Speed
120 kt
Altitude
20,000 ft
Endurance 20 hr
Engine Rotax 914
The production version of the HERTI UAV will weigh
750 kilograms.
In November 2007, the British government confirmed
the participation of the HERTI UAV during its
operations in Afghanistan. These "operational trials"
took place in the Helmand region of Afghanistan. The
HERTI UAV flew in support of deployed British forces.
Some of these flights took place from the British force's
Camp Bastion. These trials were part of the Royal Air
Force Air Warfare Center's Project Morrigan. This
project will assist in the development of the HERTI.
The HERTI UAV has flown equipped with
electro-optical sensor payloads. BAE Systems is aiming
to offer HERTI to meet British operational
requirements. BAE Systems delivered the second
HERTI ground control station (GCS) in July 2008.
BAE Systems mentioned plans to arm the HERTI in
2006. The armed version is the Fury. BAE Systems
announced this version in June 2008.
Mantis. Another British UAV program is Mantis. The
twin-engine Mantis is to be a fully autonomous UAV
capable of performing reconnaissance missions and
attacking certain ground targets. The rollout of the
prototype took place in early 2009. Mantis made its
maiden flight in Woomera, South Australia, in October
2009.
BAE Systems' team includes:
Rolls-Royce - Integrated propulsion system &
engine clearance
QinetiQ - Flight termination system and
communication system
GE Aviation - Electrical power system and primary
flight control actuation
Meggitt - Electrical braking system
SELEX Galileo - Future mission systems and
sensor requirements.
The Mantis is similar in concept to the MQ-9 Reaper
UAV. The air vehicle has a wingspan of 20 meters and
an endurance of 204+ hours. The Mantis is a
technology demonstrator, but the British government
will need more money for further development work.
The second phase of this project will involve work on a
sensor suite, datalinks, and other technologies. This
phase will include the construction of a second air
vehicle.
The British government displayed the UAV at an Indian
defense show in 2009 to help generate interest in
Mantis. London is hoping to win foreign assistance in
developing this UAV. With the British defense budget
©2011 July 2011

Page 6
Watchkeeper
under serious pressure, London will need foreign money
to push Mantis forward. Potential interest in Mantis is
coming from India, as well as Australia, Canada, and
elsewhere.
British newspapers speculated in late 2009 that London
would soon kill the Mantis program as part of a defense
austerity plan. The British Ministry of Defence is
questioning the capabilities of this UAV and is
considering alternatives.
Taranis. Yet another British UAV program is Taranis.
This is a demonstrator program. The Taranis air vehicle
will be capable of delivering weapons on a battlefield
and will operate at a high level of autonomy.
The British government announced the Taranis contract
award to BAE Systems in December 2006. This
Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
contract is worth GBP124 million. Taranis is a
four-year project (2007 to 2010).
Technical Data
Length
11.35 m
Height 3.98
Wingspan 9.94 m
Weight, Takeoff 8,000 kg
Engine Adour 951
The Taranis air vehicle has a delta-wing shape and
tricycle-type landing gear. Assembly of the first
demonstrator began in September 2007 and ground
testing began in early 2009. Test flights are to take
place in 2010. The Taranis has internal weapons bays.
The other members of this team are Rolls-Royce,
QinetiQ, and Smiths Aerospace.
Related News
Watchkeeper UAV Runs into More Delays – More problems are hitting the United Kingdom's Watchkeeper
unmanned air vehicle program. This UAV is aimed at gathering intelligence for the Royal Artillery, but technical
problems will delay its service entry, again. The UAV was to arrive in February, eight months later than originally
specified by the contract. Now, the Watchkeeper UAV will not arrive until near the end of 2011. (The Register,
3/11)
WATCHKEEPER Makes First U.K. Flight – The Watchkeeper unmanned air system flew for the first time in
the U.K. on April 14, Thales UK announced. Watchkeeper took off from dedicated facilities at Parc Aberporth in
West Wales for a 20-minute flight. The Parc Aberporth facilities, managed by QinetiQ through the West Wales
UAV Center, are the premier test facilities for UAVs in the U.K.
The flight marks the first milestone in a long-term program to demonstrate that the Watchkeeper system meets the
safety and airworthiness criteria required to fly UAVs initially on ranges and segregated airspace in the United
Kingdom.
The Watchkeeper system's capabilities will enable commanders to detect and track targets for many hours without
the need to deploy troops into potentially sensitive or dangerous areas. The system is capable of rapid deployment
and operations anywhere in the world and will support the information requirements of all three services. (Thales,
4/10)
Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the on-line E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at
www.forecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.
Funding
The British program to acquire unmanned air vehicles avoided the budget axe for now. The British government is
reducing defense spending by 8 percent over the next four years and cut the strength of its armed forces by
10 percent. The British government had been considering a 10-20 percent cut. One report said the British Army
will see the number of Watchkeeper UAVs in service increase. Both the British and American militaries use UAVs
in Afghanistan to perform intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) missions. The
United Kingdom uses Hermes 450 and leased Reaper UAVs.
Once, the Watchkeeper development and production contract was worth GBP1 billion ($1.78 billion) to GBP3
billion. The IOC Watchkeeper regiment will deploy 12 WK 450 UAVs (a regular regiment will have 16). The
regiment will operate four batteries, each supporting a brigade and two battlegroup field headquarters. An entire
system is deployable on a single C-130 aircraft and can be ready for operation in 24 hours.
July 2011

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast Page 7
Watchkeeper
British newspaper reports in late 2007 said the U.K. Ministry of Defence planned to procure 54 Watchkeeper
unmanned aircraft. The MoD had been reluctant to reveal the number of air vehicles it would acquire. Along with
these air vehicles, the MoD will acquire 13 ground control stations (GCS).
In 2009, the British MoD delayed the Watchkeeper program. The first Watchkeeper platform was to arrive in
October 2010 before entering service a few months later. Additional delays mean the first Watchkeeper will not
enter service until late this year (2011).
British Defense Budget Figures
FY09 FY09 FY10 FY10 FY11 FY11 FY12 FY12
QTY AMT QTY AMT QTY AMT QTY AMT
U.S. dollars - 55.29 - 56.40 - 53.02 - 48.52
British Pounds - 35.34 - 36.80 - 34.60 - 31.66
All values are in billions.
Contracts/Orders & Options
On Oct 24, 2010, the U.K. Ministry of Defence awarded UAS Tactical Systems Ltd (U-TacS) an 18-month
extension to its current contract to supply the British military in Afghanistan with ISTAR support services. Under
this contract, worth $70 million, the contractor will provide and support Hermes 450 UAV systems, training and
maintenance, logistics support, and management services.
In Apr 2010, the U.K. Ministry of Defence awarded Thales UK an initial three-year support contract for the
Watchkeeper UAS program, for which Thales UK is also prime systems integrator. Specifically, Thales will
provide contractor logistics support, providing spares and repairs, technical support, and use of the Watchkeeper
training facility. Thales will deliver this service with the support of its key partners and supply chain, established
during the Watchkeeper development and production program. This contract covers the entire Watchkeeper system,
comprising over 160 entities (including unmanned air vehicles, ground control stations, and support vehicles), and
includes operator/user training. It is the first step in Thales UK's provision of cost-effective, through-life support to
Watchkeeper. The Watchkeeper Service Management Team will be based in the U.K., with joint MoD/Thales
service delivery and training teams based in Abbey Wood, Bristol, Larkhill, and Salisbury, assisted by service
support organizations at Thales' facilities in both Leicester and Crawley.
On Dec 10, 2007, the U.K. MoD awarded two contracts related to its Watchkeeper program. QinetiQ received a
GBP5 million contract to perform flight testing and ground base work. ABSL Power Solutions Ltd will provide the
emergency backup battery for the Watchkeeper air vehicle.
In Jun 2007, Elbit Systems Ltd announced that Thales UK had awarded UAV Tactical Systems Ltd (U-TacS) a
contract worth approximately $110 million. This contract calls for the provision of an urgent ISTAR support
capability for the U.K. armed forces. The contract includes the provision of Hermes 450 UAV systems, as well as
training of the U.K. MoD staff in use and maintenance of the system, and the provision of contractor logistics
support and program management services. Work will be managed from the U-TacS facility in Leicester, U.K.
U-TacS also provides the core UAV systems for the Thales UK Watchkeeper UAV system.
On May 2, 2007, the U.K. MoD awarded Hagglunds a contract for 21 BvS10 Viking all-terrain armored vehicles.
These vehicles will be used to transport equipment for the British Army's Watchkeeper UAS. The value of this
contract was not disclosed.
In Mar 2007, Thales UK and Elbit Systems were in negotiations to meet a British Army urgent operational
requirement (UOR) for tactical unmanned air vehicles (TUAVs). The contract is worth GBP50 million. The British
Army will receive the Hermes 450 UAV.
In Jan 2007, Thales UK awarded a contract of undisclosed value to Athena Technologies Inc to supply its Guidestar
integrated INS/GPS and air data sensor suite for the Watchkeeper system.
©2011 July 2011

Page 8
Watchkeeper
Unmanned Vehicles Forecast
In Nov 2006, APPH Ltd was awarded a contract to provide landing gear for the WK 450 Watchkeeper UAV. The
company was contracted by Elbit Systems Ltd, and the work is part of a GBP317 million order from U-TacS, the
joint venture in charge of program production.
In Apr 2006, Thales UK awarded Praxis High Integrity Systems a GBP3 million contract as part of the Watchkeeper
program. Praxis is part of Thales UK's Watchkeeper team and is tasked with taking the lead on systems safety
engineering.
In Feb 2006, Thales UK awarded Vega Group plc an initial GBP650,000 training contract for Watchkeeper. Vega is
part of Thales UK's Watchkeeper team and has been engaged to complete a training needs analysis and
risk-reduction study in advance of the full training design contract.
Timetable
Year
Major Development
1999 U.K. issues an Invitation to Tender for UAV programs
2000 U.K. merges Sender and Spectator programs
Sender and Spectator become Watchkeeper
2004 Thales selected as single Watchkeeper contractor
Aug 2005 Full-scale development contract awarded
Sep 2005 WK 450 first flight
2007 Hermes 450 operational with British troops in Iraq
2010(a)
Delivery of the first Watchkeeper UAV
Apr 2011 First production Watchkeeper UAV flies in Wales
Watchkeeper UAV enters service
2011-2012(a) British Army deploys Watchkeeper UAV to Afghanistan
(a) Estimate
Worldwide Distribution/Inventories
Watchkeeper will initially operate in parallel with the Thales-led H-450 UAV. The British MoD began contracting
for UAS services in June 2007. By early 2010, the H-450 had flown more than 30,000 operational hours in support
of current British military operations. The large British contingent in Afghanistan relies on unmanned air vehicles.
The British MoD did say its UAVs do suffer from failures and require about 100 personnel to ensure they function
properly.
The British Army operates UAVs within its 32 and 47 Regiments, Royal Artillery. These units will receive the
Watchkeeper.
A modified version of the WK 450 will be offered to France. This UAV could meet its Systeme de Drone Tactique
Terrestre (SDTT) requirement.
User Country. The United Kingdom will be the initial operator of the Watchkeeper. In addition to the British
Army, the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy are also interested in Watchkeeper.
British troops in Afghanistan are dependent on
unmanned aircraft to provide intelligence on the
movements of hostile forces. Unmanned air vehicles
spend countless hours in the air gathering information.
So far, the fact that UAV programs escaped the budget
axe is an indicator of the importance placed on these
systems by the British government.
The United Kingdom is increasing its unmanned aircraft
fleet. The British Army has U.S.-built MQ-9 Reaper
Forecast Rationale
UAVs supporting its troops in Afghanistan. Soon, the
British military will add the new Watchkeeper UAVs to
its fleet.
Problems with the Watchkeeper continue. The British
government announced in 2009 that Watchkeeper would
not enter service as planned. According to a report by
the National Audit Office, the Watchkeeper UAV was
six months behind schedule. This pushed back first
deliveries to late 2010. More delays will push the
July 2011

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast Page 9
Watchkeeper
service entry of the Watchkeeper to late 2011. To meet
immediate needs, the British MoD is using the
Hermes 450 system, which arrived in mid-2007. The
air vehicle and sensors of the Hermes 450 have
similarities with those used by Watchkeeper.
Some of Watchkeeper's problems were not of its own
creation. For too long, the British government refused
to admit it just does not have enough money to cover all
ongoing and planned defense programs. The British
Ministry of Defence can no longer ignore this situation
and must face the fact that not all programs will survive.
Cancellation of the Watchkeeper is not in open
discussion. The United Kingdom needs to expand its
intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and
reconnaissance (ISTAR) capability. Programs under
threat are all the other UAV types the British military
wants to field. The British government may not be able
to pursue projects like Mantis and others without
foreign cooperation.
Thales sees Watchkeeper as a significant boost to its
UAV strategy. The company hopes to win export
orders for this system, possibly from other countries in
Europe, as well as Middle East and Pacific Rim nations.
This first export order could come in the near future.
Thales is already eyeing ways to expand its cooperation
with Elbit Systems Ltd.
The United Kingdom has revealed its
Watchkeeper UAS procurement plan. Originally, the
Thales proposal involved two air vehicles: the WK 180,
based on the Hermes 180, and the WK 450, a version of
the Hermes 450. London later reduced the types of
UAVs it will purchase from two to one. The British
Army plans to purchase 54 Watchkeeper air vehicles.
The MoD did not say if this figure includes attrition and
training air vehicles. This decision does not preclude
the U.K. from procuring a tactical UAV in the future,
but British officials have said that the growing cost of
operations in Iraq could delay any such contracts
until 2015.
Ten-Year Outlook
ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION
Designation or Program High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative
Thru 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
Thales Holding UK Ltd
WK 450 Watchkeeper United Kingdom
10 10 10 10 10 10 3 0 0 0 0 53
Watchkeeper GCS United Kingdom
4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 12
Watchkeeper Payload United Kingdom
10 10 11 12 11 11 5 0 0 0 0 60
Subtotal 24 23 24 25 23 22 8 0 0 0 0 125
Total 24 23 24 25 23 22 8 0 0 0 0 125
©2011 July 2011

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