Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
Scenario planning â how to find the right strategy at ... - Roland Berger
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<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
06/2012<br />
Study<br />
In-depth knowledge for decision makers<br />
High vol<strong>at</strong>ility on s<strong>to</strong>ck markets: MSCI emerging market index<br />
with significant vari<strong>at</strong>ions (market capitaliz<strong>at</strong>ion, USD billion)<br />
8,000<br />
7,20 0<br />
6,600<br />
5,200<br />
3,500<br />
2006<br />
2008 2009 2011 2012<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> – <strong>how</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>find</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>right</strong> <strong>str<strong>at</strong>egy</strong> <strong>at</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>right</strong> time in emerging markets<br />
global <strong>to</strong>pics<br />
8 billion<br />
Emerging markets promise substantial new business<br />
opportunities. But <strong>the</strong>y require management <strong>to</strong> navig<strong>at</strong>e<br />
increasingly vol<strong>at</strong>ile markets th<strong>at</strong> gre<strong>at</strong>ly complic<strong>at</strong>e<br />
economic forecasting. To help executives make more accur<strong>at</strong>e<br />
str<strong>at</strong>egic decisions, this public<strong>at</strong>ion describes a very<br />
successful and vers<strong>at</strong>ile str<strong>at</strong>egic scenario <strong>planning</strong> <strong>to</strong>ol.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong>s <strong>planning</strong> can improve <strong>the</strong> forecasting of company-relevant<br />
trends in highly vol<strong>at</strong>ile markets like <strong>the</strong> au<strong>to</strong>motive industry.
Study 3<br />
global <strong>to</strong>pics<br />
8 billion<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> – <strong>how</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>find</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>right</strong> <strong>str<strong>at</strong>egy</strong><br />
<strong>at</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>right</strong> time in emerging markets<br />
Introduction<br />
Guidance in uncertain times –<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> step by step<br />
Conclusion<br />
p 4<br />
p 8<br />
p 20
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
introduction<br />
Highly sensitive, linked and vol<strong>at</strong>ile emerging markets<br />
complic<strong>at</strong>e forecasting considerably
Study 5<br />
"In emerging markets, vol<strong>at</strong>ility is <strong>the</strong> new normality.<br />
We cannot look more than three years ahead in <strong>the</strong>se countries."<br />
Siegfried Gänßlen, CEO of Hansgrohe, a leading German<br />
sanitary and fittings company<br />
Signs of more vol<strong>at</strong>ility are everywhere. The s<strong>to</strong>ck markets of<br />
emerging countries are one good example. Over <strong>the</strong> last five years,<br />
for instance, <strong>the</strong> Shanghai Composite moved between 1,500 and<br />
6,000 points, and EGX, Egypt's leading share price index, swung<br />
between 12,000 and 5,000 points. During this same period, oil<br />
prices fluctu<strong>at</strong>ed from USD 40 <strong>to</strong> 140 a barrel – a range exceeding<br />
250%. O<strong>the</strong>r commodities, such as raw m<strong>at</strong>erials from emerging<br />
markets and <strong>the</strong> developing world, also s<strong>how</strong> large price<br />
swings. For example, aluminum prices over <strong>the</strong> same five years<br />
ranged between USD 1,400 and 3,300 a <strong>to</strong>n, a difference of<br />
more than 100%.<br />
Vol<strong>at</strong>ility is found not only in <strong>the</strong> economic sphere, but in politics<br />
as well. A prime example here is <strong>the</strong> Arab world. Since <strong>the</strong><br />
Arab Spring began in January 2011, one country after <strong>the</strong> next has<br />
experienced some degree of upheaval. Foreign companies are<br />
uncertain about <strong>the</strong> consequences for <strong>the</strong>ir Middle East business<br />
and investments, which recently <strong>to</strong>taled USD 15 billion annually.<br />
f1 Given this vol<strong>at</strong>ility, managers <strong>find</strong> it increasingly difficult <strong>to</strong><br />
anticip<strong>at</strong>e <strong>how</strong> changes and trends could impact <strong>the</strong>ir business.<br />
Traditional foreign investment <strong>planning</strong> cycles of ten years or<br />
more are no longer feasible. Plans must be reviewed and revised<br />
<strong>at</strong> much shorter intervals.<br />
f2<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> are successful companies<br />
doing differently<br />
As this book seeks <strong>to</strong> s<strong>how</strong>, emerging markets have enormous<br />
business potential. Emerging countries plan <strong>to</strong> invest a <strong>to</strong>tal<br />
of nearly USD 30 trillion in <strong>the</strong>ir B2B and B2C sec<strong>to</strong>rs over <strong>the</strong> next<br />
20 years, according <strong>to</strong> <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> estim<strong>at</strong>es. These immense<br />
disbursements will improve <strong>the</strong> lives of millions of citizens across<br />
<strong>the</strong> world. But leveraging <strong>the</strong> full potential of <strong>the</strong>se investments<br />
can be achieved only by companies th<strong>at</strong> correctly position <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
str<strong>at</strong>egies.<br />
Companies must adapt skillfully <strong>to</strong> market movements. Rapid<br />
economic growth in China, for example, is turning many people<br />
in<strong>to</strong> millionaires. The number of Chinese households worth<br />
<strong>at</strong> least USD 1 million leapt by over 60% in 2010. China recorded<br />
1.1 million millionaire households th<strong>at</strong> year, considerably more<br />
than <strong>the</strong> 670,000 it had in 2009. Many of <strong>the</strong>se new millionaires<br />
prefer products th<strong>at</strong> c<strong>at</strong>er <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir unique cultural tastes.<br />
Foreign companies now need <strong>to</strong> design and deliver products<br />
<strong>to</strong> s<strong>at</strong>isfy a more diverse cus<strong>to</strong>mer base.<br />
A good example is Hansgrohe, which wins plaudits for intern<strong>at</strong>ional<br />
competitiveness based on high-style, high-quality minimalist
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
F1<br />
A consequence of <strong>the</strong> high vol<strong>at</strong>ility is<br />
th<strong>at</strong> traditional <strong>planning</strong> cycles are no<br />
longer any good. Forecasts of business<br />
experts also differ significantly<br />
Global GDP growth, 2000 -2011 (%)<br />
4.8<br />
IMF<br />
4.5<br />
IMF<br />
5.4<br />
IMF<br />
2007<br />
2000<br />
2005<br />
2011<br />
3.9<br />
IMF<br />
2001<br />
2.9<br />
Consensus<br />
2.4<br />
IMF<br />
Time horizons of traditional corpor<strong>at</strong>e <strong>planning</strong>, 2000 – 2011<br />
Str<strong>at</strong>egic <strong>planning</strong><br />
Traditional organiz<strong>at</strong>ional structure<br />
Medium-term <strong>planning</strong><br />
Oper<strong>at</strong>ional <strong>planning</strong><br />
10 years<br />
5-7 years<br />
3-5 years<br />
1 year<br />
2009<br />
-0.6<br />
IMF<br />
Source: IMF, <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong>
Study 7<br />
F2<br />
Emerging countries plan <strong>to</strong> invest a <strong>to</strong>tal of nearly USD 30 trillion<br />
in <strong>the</strong>ir B2B and B2C sec<strong>to</strong>rs over <strong>the</strong> next 20 years, according<br />
<strong>to</strong> <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> estim<strong>at</strong>es<br />
USD<br />
30,000,<br />
000,000,000<br />
faucet designs. But after entering China, <strong>the</strong> company soon<br />
discovered th<strong>at</strong> Chinese homeowners do not favor sleek and trim<br />
faucets. They want very visible, substantial handles and bodies.<br />
After some in-house soul-searching, Hansgrohe designed a line of<br />
heavyweight mixers exclusively for China. These b<strong>at</strong>hroom fixtures<br />
are now marketed very successfully <strong>to</strong> Chinese homeowners, but<br />
<strong>the</strong>y don't fe<strong>at</strong>ure in <strong>the</strong> product c<strong>at</strong>alog outside China.<br />
When <strong>planning</strong> <strong>to</strong> enter emerging markets, successful companies<br />
respond <strong>to</strong> trends outside <strong>the</strong>ir core industry. Siemens serves as<br />
an excellent example of <strong>how</strong> <strong>to</strong> derive <strong>str<strong>at</strong>egy</strong> from meg<strong>at</strong>rends.<br />
The company set up a dedic<strong>at</strong>ed department for sustainable urban<br />
development. By tracking and analyzing broad long-term trends,<br />
such as popul<strong>at</strong>ion change and urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion, Siemens became a<br />
global pioneer in sustainable urban development, especially<br />
among emerging and developing countries. Siemens also bet on<br />
higher emerging market demand for cheap and easy <strong>to</strong> use SMART<br />
products: Simple, Maintenance-friendly, Affordable, Reliable<br />
and Timely <strong>to</strong> market. With <strong>the</strong>se design principles, <strong>the</strong>y design<br />
products pitched <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> needs of newly industrializing and<br />
developing countries. A good example is portable X-ray equipment,<br />
which is now indispensable for doc<strong>to</strong>rs in Africa practicing in<br />
clinics distributed across a large geographical area.<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> are <strong>the</strong> risks<br />
However, if executives do not correctly interpret emerging and<br />
developing economy market conditions, companies may<br />
experience difficulties. According <strong>to</strong> <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> estim<strong>at</strong>es,<br />
German companies investing in emerging markets with <strong>the</strong> wrong<br />
<strong>str<strong>at</strong>egy</strong> miss potential revenues of several USD 100 million<br />
a year. Wh<strong>at</strong>'s more, industrialized countries will <strong>find</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
innov<strong>at</strong>ive edge quickly dulled if <strong>the</strong>y miss <strong>to</strong>morrow's trends.<br />
Asia's au<strong>to</strong>motive industry has already leapt over several<br />
development stages in a single bound <strong>to</strong> domin<strong>at</strong>e b<strong>at</strong>tery<br />
technology, a critical e-mobility component. Chinese, Indian and<br />
Arab companies increasingly bid for European and American<br />
acquisitions. In 2011, for <strong>the</strong> first time, Europe was <strong>the</strong> <strong>to</strong>p<br />
destin<strong>at</strong>ion for Chinese direct investment, <strong>to</strong>taling<br />
USD 10.4 billion.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
Guidance in uncertain<br />
times – <strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong><br />
step by step<br />
An approach th<strong>at</strong> guides companies <strong>to</strong> str<strong>at</strong>egic success
Study 9<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> approach can guide companies<br />
<strong>to</strong> success in uncertain times<br />
Changes in <strong>the</strong> macro environment outside of a company's<br />
industry, such as political, social, ecological, economic or<br />
technological developments, often play a decisive role in <strong>the</strong><br />
success of <strong>the</strong> company's business model. A holistic perspective<br />
is <strong>the</strong>refore strongly recommended <strong>to</strong> incorpor<strong>at</strong>e macroenvironment<br />
fac<strong>to</strong>rs in a flexible str<strong>at</strong>egic plan.<br />
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants collabor<strong>at</strong>ed with HHL Leipzig<br />
<strong>to</strong> design a scenario <strong>planning</strong> methodology th<strong>at</strong> can give companies<br />
faster and earlier warning about important macroenvironment<br />
events, trends and changes. This analytical method<br />
works like radar <strong>to</strong> track movements far beyond a company and<br />
its industry. The methodology can detect "weak signal" influences<br />
th<strong>at</strong> typically only become evident in <strong>the</strong> long run. "Blind spots"<br />
th<strong>at</strong> are hidden in companies preoccupied by internal perspectives<br />
become transparent. To develop this holistic view, our scenario<br />
<strong>planning</strong> analytic techniques take in<strong>to</strong> account <strong>the</strong> opinions of<br />
many internal and external stakeholders.<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> is an appropri<strong>at</strong>e <strong>to</strong>ol for global companies in<br />
all industries – whe<strong>the</strong>r au<strong>to</strong>motive or pharmaceuticals, manufacturing<br />
or services, avi<strong>at</strong>ion or energy utilities – th<strong>at</strong> wish <strong>to</strong><br />
position <strong>the</strong>mselves successfully in emerging and developing<br />
countries.<br />
Our method for developing key future scenarios involves<br />
five core steps.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
1. Defining<br />
<strong>the</strong> scope<br />
The first step defines <strong>the</strong> project focus, <strong>the</strong> markets <strong>to</strong> develop<br />
scenarios for and <strong>the</strong> time frame. To illustr<strong>at</strong>e in general<br />
terms <strong>how</strong> <strong>the</strong> process works, we will use a recent scenario<br />
<strong>planning</strong> study from <strong>the</strong> global manufacturing industry.<br />
"Manufacturing industry" here refers <strong>to</strong> a wide spectrum of<br />
sec<strong>to</strong>rs, from mining and chemicals <strong>to</strong> metals manufacturing<br />
and m<strong>at</strong>erials fabric<strong>at</strong>ion.<br />
f3 Manufacturing sec<strong>to</strong>rs are surging ahead in many emerging<br />
economies. Over <strong>the</strong> past five years, <strong>the</strong>ir share of global<br />
manufacturing output climbed from 30% <strong>to</strong> 50%. Annual revenues<br />
now reach around USD 20 trillion. 1 Emerging economy governments<br />
recognize <strong>the</strong> special importance of a manufacturing base.<br />
Not only does industry employ a significant share of <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
labor force, but it also supplies str<strong>at</strong>egically important products<br />
<strong>to</strong> improve critical sec<strong>to</strong>rs such as <strong>the</strong> n<strong>at</strong>ional infrastructure.<br />
How a country's manufacturing industry will evolve is clearly<br />
str<strong>at</strong>egically relevant <strong>to</strong> foreign producers and suppliers seeking<br />
<strong>to</strong> enter and expand in emerging markets. But manufacturing's<br />
diversity presents a challenge for developing coherent manufacturing<br />
industry scenarios. To tackle this challenge, <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong><br />
Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants has defined a set of scenarios and<br />
appropri<strong>at</strong>e business opportunities within <strong>the</strong> general manufacturing<br />
industry. The concept development was grounded in <strong>the</strong><br />
cus<strong>to</strong>mer and industry needs and trends of 2020 and fac<strong>to</strong>red in<br />
input from internal stakeholders and external experts.<br />
F3<br />
Manufacturing sec<strong>to</strong>rs are surging ahead in many<br />
emerging economies. Over <strong>the</strong> past five years, <strong>the</strong>ir share<br />
of global manufacturing output climbed from 30% <strong>to</strong> 50%<br />
2012<br />
50%<br />
2007<br />
30%<br />
1) IHS Global Insight (2012) Source: IHS Global Insight
Study 11<br />
2. Selecting<br />
stakeholders<br />
3. Conducting<br />
<strong>the</strong> survey<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> can help companies better anticip<strong>at</strong>e <strong>how</strong><br />
macro-environment events could affect future performance and<br />
business opportunities. A key initial step is <strong>to</strong> canvass <strong>the</strong> views<br />
and opinions of <strong>the</strong> most important internal stakeholders, such<br />
as board members, <strong>to</strong>p executives, key str<strong>at</strong>egic and managerial<br />
staff, and industry experts. When assessing emerging country<br />
markets, we also identify appropri<strong>at</strong>e external stakeholders and<br />
market experts, such as politicians, members of <strong>the</strong> chamber of<br />
commerce or local cus<strong>to</strong>mers and suppliers. Identifying and<br />
accessing <strong>the</strong> most knowledgeable individuals may not proceed<br />
as efficiently as in familiar or advanced markets, but <strong>the</strong>ir voices<br />
are critically important. It's also advisable <strong>to</strong> interview people<br />
who work <strong>at</strong> competi<strong>to</strong>rs. One leading German electronics group,<br />
for example, always <strong>at</strong>tempts <strong>to</strong> talk with local competi<strong>to</strong>rs' staff<br />
before launching oper<strong>at</strong>ions in a newly industrializing country.<br />
Plant visits can also offer valuable insights in<strong>to</strong> local conditions.<br />
In our survey, we approach a broad range of stakeholders and<br />
generally 40 <strong>to</strong> 50 respondents particip<strong>at</strong>e.<br />
To illustr<strong>at</strong>e <strong>how</strong> we conduct <strong>the</strong> survey and apply its <strong>find</strong>ings <strong>to</strong><br />
cre<strong>at</strong>e key scenarios, we'll refer <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> previously mentioned<br />
global manufacturing industry study. We start by using <strong>Roland</strong><br />
<strong>Berger</strong>'s "360° stakeholder feedback questionnaire" <strong>to</strong> identify<br />
those fac<strong>to</strong>rs most likely <strong>to</strong> affect <strong>the</strong> global manufacturing<br />
industry. First, we list influencing fac<strong>to</strong>rs along <strong>the</strong> so-called STEEP<br />
dimensions – Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and<br />
Political/legal – and develop a questionnaire about <strong>the</strong>m. We <strong>the</strong>n<br />
distribute this questionnaire <strong>to</strong> internal stakeholders (across<br />
functions) and external experts (e.g. from local industry, think<br />
tanks, academia, etc.) across critical manufacturing sec<strong>to</strong>rs<br />
and geographical loc<strong>at</strong>ions. The respondents identify 40 <strong>to</strong> 50<br />
separ<strong>at</strong>e influencing fac<strong>to</strong>rs, which are <strong>the</strong>n clustered in a second<br />
survey <strong>to</strong> score each fac<strong>to</strong>r in terms of two key criteria:<br />
Impact – How significant<br />
is <strong>the</strong> influencing fac<strong>to</strong>r<br />
in a global context<br />
Certainty – Wh<strong>at</strong> is <strong>the</strong><br />
probability <strong>the</strong> influencing<br />
fac<strong>to</strong>r will occur
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
4.<br />
Detecting weak signals<br />
and blind spots<br />
The next step is <strong>to</strong> compare internal and external stakeholders'<br />
assessments and consolid<strong>at</strong>e <strong>find</strong>ings. All fac<strong>to</strong>rs th<strong>at</strong> s<strong>how</strong><br />
potentially significant influence are identified, paying particular<br />
<strong>at</strong>tention <strong>to</strong> "weak signals" and "blind spots".<br />
"Weak signals" are trends only a few stakeholders mention in <strong>the</strong><br />
first survey, but nearly all second-round respondents r<strong>at</strong>e as<br />
fac<strong>to</strong>rs th<strong>at</strong> could become highly relevant <strong>to</strong> a company's future<br />
performance. For example, <strong>the</strong> global manufacturing study<br />
detected th<strong>at</strong> companies gre<strong>at</strong>ly underestim<strong>at</strong>e <strong>the</strong> importance<br />
of securing access <strong>to</strong> rare earth metals. Future demand will be<br />
enormous. The industry already uses around 130,000 <strong>to</strong>ns per<br />
year of <strong>the</strong>se rare metals worldwide. Neodymium and yttrium, for<br />
example, are particularly important in electric car b<strong>at</strong>teries and<br />
engines. Rising use of <strong>the</strong>se m<strong>at</strong>erials is also boosted by<br />
electronic equipment like fl<strong>at</strong>-screen televisions and industrial<br />
superconduc<strong>to</strong>rs. Analysts predict th<strong>at</strong> demand will reach<br />
190,000 <strong>to</strong>ns in 2015. To meet th<strong>at</strong> demand, Europe is highly<br />
dependent on maintaining good rel<strong>at</strong>ionships with supplier<br />
countries, notably China.<br />
"Blind spots" are differences in <strong>how</strong> internal and external<br />
stakeholders interpret a fac<strong>to</strong>r's importance. For example,<br />
our pharmaceutical and au<strong>to</strong>motive sec<strong>to</strong>r studies s<strong>how</strong><br />
th<strong>at</strong> when management gives excessive <strong>at</strong>tention <strong>to</strong> internal<br />
perceptions and preoccup<strong>at</strong>ions, important market<br />
opportunities may be missed.<br />
A recent pharmaceutical industry survey of all stakeholders<br />
detected insufficient in-house appreci<strong>at</strong>ion of biosimilars. These<br />
are bioengineered follow-on drugs officially approved after <strong>the</strong><br />
original drug's p<strong>at</strong>ent has expired. Experts predict <strong>the</strong> biosimilar<br />
market, with <strong>to</strong>tal sales of USD 400 million in 2010, will grow in<br />
four years <strong>to</strong> USD 2 or 3 billion. 2 The reason why biosimilars are<br />
an exciting option for <strong>the</strong> pharmaceutical industry is th<strong>at</strong><br />
more and more emerging countries will demand and have <strong>the</strong><br />
resources <strong>to</strong> pay for improved healthcare. The trends are already<br />
apparent. Over <strong>the</strong> past five years, per capita health spending<br />
in <strong>the</strong> BRIC countries rose by USD 87. In absolute terms,<br />
this means people purchased an additional USD 252 billion 3<br />
in healthcare services.<br />
Our survey of <strong>the</strong> au<strong>to</strong>motive sec<strong>to</strong>r discovered ano<strong>the</strong>r blind spot:<br />
some managers severely underestim<strong>at</strong>e <strong>the</strong> market potential of<br />
simpler, more affordable vehicles. In India, small or economy<br />
cars account for over 70% of all new vehicle registr<strong>at</strong>ions. Ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
internal misperception was a failure <strong>to</strong> appreci<strong>at</strong>e emerging<br />
economy manufacturers' competitive strengths. Over <strong>the</strong> last five<br />
years, passenger car production in developed countries decreased<br />
by 2% annually <strong>to</strong> 32 million, but in developing countries, car<br />
assembly doubled from 16 <strong>to</strong> 32 million cars. Emerging market<br />
manufacturers now also venture in<strong>to</strong> European terri<strong>to</strong>ry:<br />
Gre<strong>at</strong> Wall Mo<strong>to</strong>rs will be <strong>the</strong> first Chinese au<strong>to</strong>maker <strong>to</strong><br />
assemble cars in <strong>the</strong> European Union when <strong>the</strong> company opens<br />
a car manufacturing plant in Bulgaria. The plant will have an<br />
annual production capacity of 50,000 units and assemble four<br />
different models – a sports utility vehicle (SUV), a pickup and<br />
two passenger car models – which are all expected <strong>to</strong> be sold in<br />
<strong>the</strong> European Union.<br />
Qoros, a Chinese brand previously unknown in Germany, recently<br />
announced plans <strong>to</strong> sell cars in Europe. Starting in mid-2013,<br />
some 150,000 vehicles will roll off Qoros production lines and<br />
capacity will ramp up <strong>to</strong> double <strong>the</strong> output within <strong>the</strong> next few<br />
years. The company intends <strong>to</strong> earn half its revenue in Europe.<br />
These examples s<strong>how</strong> <strong>how</strong> European-based companies may<br />
miss market opportunities and lose revenue if <strong>the</strong>y concentr<strong>at</strong>e<br />
<strong>to</strong>o intently on internal opinions and priorities.<br />
2) Global Industry Analysts (2010) 3) Euromoni<strong>to</strong>r (2011)
Study 13<br />
5. Deriving<br />
scenarios<br />
To illustr<strong>at</strong>e this step, we return <strong>to</strong> our study of <strong>the</strong> global<br />
manufacturing industry. Based on stakeholder evalu<strong>at</strong>ions, <strong>the</strong><br />
fac<strong>to</strong>rs th<strong>at</strong> influence global manufacturing can be alloc<strong>at</strong>ed<br />
in<strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> following c<strong>at</strong>egories:<br />
F4<br />
Influencing fac<strong>to</strong>rs are c<strong>at</strong>egorized<br />
by potential impact and certainty<br />
High<br />
Critical uncertainties<br />
or weak signals (low certainty but highest<br />
impact on <strong>the</strong> scenarios)<br />
Definite trends*<br />
(high certainty, high impact)<br />
Potential<br />
impact<br />
Secondary elements<br />
These elements elements are elimin<strong>at</strong>ed<br />
(low impact)<br />
LOW<br />
LOW<br />
Certainty<br />
high<br />
*<br />
Definite trends:<br />
Growth of developing countries as end-use<br />
markets (e.g. China and India)<br />
Use of nanotechnology, mini<strong>at</strong>uriz<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
and microelectronics<br />
Transition <strong>to</strong> lightweight m<strong>at</strong>erials (e.g. composites)<br />
Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong>
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
F5<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> building process following<br />
a step-by-step approach<br />
Long list of relevant<br />
uncertainties<br />
Uncertain<br />
Yes Cluster by<br />
Yes Build scenario<br />
Trends<br />
Yes<br />
common<br />
m<strong>at</strong>rix using key<br />
stable in<br />
<strong>the</strong>me<br />
uncertainties<br />
each future<br />
Move <strong>to</strong> trend<br />
No No No<br />
Check importance<br />
of "un-clustered"<br />
uncertainty<br />
Important uncertainty<br />
Re-cut dimensions<br />
Re-cut common<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes & scenario<br />
dimensions<br />
Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong><br />
We found th<strong>at</strong> resource intensity and economic protectionism are<br />
<strong>the</strong> major key uncertainties likely <strong>to</strong> have <strong>the</strong> largest impact<br />
across <strong>the</strong> entire industrial sec<strong>to</strong>r. These uncertainties become<br />
<strong>the</strong> scenario m<strong>at</strong>rix axes pictured in figures 5 and 6.<br />
M<strong>at</strong>rix dimension: resource intensity<br />
Resource intensity refers <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> level of n<strong>at</strong>ural resource<br />
consumption, such as <strong>the</strong> use of metals or w<strong>at</strong>er. Government<br />
subsidies and regul<strong>at</strong>ions can substantially determine an<br />
in dustrial economy's resource intensity, and consumer pre f-<br />
erences for green and sustainable products play a role as well.<br />
Impact of <strong>the</strong> resource intensity dimension<br />
Resource intensity exerts considerable influence on product<br />
development, production processes and end-product handling.<br />
New altern<strong>at</strong>ive m<strong>at</strong>erials and more economical production<br />
technologies may ease future resource constraints. But this<br />
possibility doesn't neg<strong>at</strong>e <strong>the</strong> substantial his<strong>to</strong>rical and continuing<br />
investment in large-scale manufacturing using conventional<br />
technologies and energy sources.
Study 15<br />
F6<br />
Four major future scenarios for <strong>the</strong> global<br />
manufacturing industry<br />
High protectionism<br />
Protectionism<br />
(incl. trade blocs)<br />
Compliance with green<br />
regul<strong>at</strong>ions but no level<br />
playing field<br />
Cus<strong>to</strong>mer-driven mfg.<br />
aligned with domestic<br />
demand<br />
Low resource intensity<br />
I<br />
Antagonistic<br />
age<br />
II<br />
Polarized<br />
world<br />
High resource intensity<br />
Globaliz<strong>at</strong>ion restrained<br />
by n<strong>at</strong>ional interests<br />
Poor compliance with<br />
green/waste regul<strong>at</strong>ions<br />
Manufacturing close<br />
<strong>to</strong> demand<br />
Free movement<br />
of goods and ideas<br />
Collective emphasis<br />
on sustainability and<br />
waste reduction<br />
Modular mfg. with made<strong>to</strong>-order<br />
products<br />
IV<br />
Green<br />
capitalism<br />
III<br />
Squandering<br />
society<br />
Free trade, incl. thre<strong>at</strong>s<br />
of dumping<br />
Low sustainability<br />
awareness – focus on<br />
personal utility<br />
Mass production with<br />
homogeneous products<br />
Source: <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong><br />
Low protectionism<br />
M<strong>at</strong>rix dimension: protectionism<br />
Protectionism refers <strong>to</strong> market-dis<strong>to</strong>rting mechanisms, such as<br />
duties, tariffs and foreign ownership restrictions th<strong>at</strong> n<strong>at</strong>ions and<br />
regions apply <strong>to</strong> advance <strong>the</strong>ir own trade interests and economic<br />
agendas. These techniques seek <strong>to</strong> preserve critical resources and<br />
can extend <strong>to</strong> intellectual property, p<strong>at</strong>ent protection and, more<br />
dram<strong>at</strong>ically, industrial espionage.<br />
These two key uncertainties, protectionism and resource<br />
intensity, let us explore comprehensive scenario s<strong>to</strong>rylines. We<br />
will now consider four plausible scenarios by valid<strong>at</strong>ing trends and<br />
describing scenario dimensions in more detail, with particular<br />
<strong>at</strong>tention <strong>to</strong> <strong>how</strong> companies in developed countries might enter<br />
emerging markets.<br />
Impact of <strong>the</strong> protectionism dimension<br />
Economic protectionism significantly influences global markets,<br />
and frequently complic<strong>at</strong>es production and logistics.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
An antagonistic age of low resource<br />
intensity and high protectionism<br />
In this vision of <strong>the</strong> future, countries with abundant raw m<strong>at</strong>erials<br />
focus on production technologies, while those without, such<br />
as those in Western Europe, design or develop altern<strong>at</strong>ives. Novel<br />
m<strong>at</strong>erials are designed for specific applic<strong>at</strong>ions and scientists<br />
cre<strong>at</strong>e a new periodic table of nanom<strong>at</strong>erials. Industrialized and<br />
high-tech regions of Western Europe, North America and Australia<br />
benefit most from <strong>the</strong>se developments because <strong>the</strong>y can leverage<br />
and exchange <strong>the</strong>ir valuable expertise and skills for commodities.<br />
This defines trade flows with such emerging markets as China and<br />
Brazil. Winning industries include energy, especially those<br />
companies th<strong>at</strong> can produce green energy, due <strong>to</strong> rising demand<br />
for renewables from equipment manufacturers. Micro-gener<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
and co-gener<strong>at</strong>ion technologies are particularly important.<br />
High protectionist barriers make it very difficult for European hightech<br />
companies <strong>to</strong> penetr<strong>at</strong>e emerging markets. The au<strong>to</strong>motive<br />
industry sees a boost in demand for electric cars. But as cars are<br />
no longer sold globally, major car exporting n<strong>at</strong>ions like Germany<br />
and <strong>the</strong> US lose substantial market share across Asia and L<strong>at</strong>in<br />
America. Resource constraints and environmental protection hit<br />
<strong>the</strong> cement and energy sec<strong>to</strong>rs particularly hard.<br />
Complying with regional environmental standards<br />
<strong>to</strong> s<strong>at</strong>isfy regul<strong>at</strong>ions<br />
Securing access <strong>to</strong> n<strong>at</strong>ural resources<br />
(or cooper<strong>at</strong>ing with organiz<strong>at</strong>ions for indirect access)<br />
Leveraging expert know-<strong>how</strong> and innov<strong>at</strong>ive<br />
technologies <strong>to</strong> develop substitute m<strong>at</strong>erials<br />
Attracting and retaining well-educ<strong>at</strong>ed human capital<br />
with emerging market expertise<br />
Forging str<strong>at</strong>egic trade rel<strong>at</strong>ions with local<br />
emerging market suppliers
Study 17<br />
A polarized world with high resource<br />
intensity and high protectionism<br />
Enterprises in resource-rich countries prosper <strong>at</strong> <strong>the</strong> expense of<br />
large multin<strong>at</strong>ionals. This shift in economic power leaves resourcepoor<br />
economies such as Western Europe and Japan scrambling<br />
<strong>to</strong> source raw m<strong>at</strong>erials. Countries with n<strong>at</strong>ural resources focus on<br />
production technologies, while resource-poor countries design<br />
and develop altern<strong>at</strong>ive m<strong>at</strong>erials. Resource-rich regions,<br />
especially those with large regional markets and technologically<br />
advanced economies, flourish. These include North America, China,<br />
India, Russia, Brazil, Australia and <strong>the</strong> Middle East. But Japan<br />
and Western Europe lose out in this future vision because high<br />
protectionism inhibits trade in resources.<br />
Developing regions' demand for steel and cement soars as<br />
countries pursue ambitious agendas <strong>to</strong> modernize infrastructures<br />
and c<strong>at</strong>ch up with <strong>the</strong> developed world. Substantial chemical<br />
production shifts <strong>to</strong> China, Russia and <strong>the</strong> Middle East as<br />
manufacturers move closer <strong>to</strong> cus<strong>to</strong>mers and markets. Due <strong>to</strong><br />
high protectionism, developed n<strong>at</strong>ion manufacturers <strong>find</strong> it<br />
difficult <strong>to</strong> install production facilities in <strong>the</strong> new emerging<br />
markets.<br />
Energy remains a core industry domin<strong>at</strong>ed by fossil fuels. The<br />
mining sec<strong>to</strong>r invests in underground extraction as minerals<br />
become harder and harder <strong>to</strong> <strong>find</strong>. The au<strong>to</strong>motive sec<strong>to</strong>r suffers<br />
from market fragment<strong>at</strong>ion, and protectionism signals <strong>the</strong> end<br />
of global brand cars like <strong>the</strong> Ford Focus. European manufacturers<br />
lose significant market share as emerging countries focus on<br />
regional car brands.<br />
Securing access <strong>to</strong> n<strong>at</strong>ural resources<br />
(or cooper<strong>at</strong>ing with organiz<strong>at</strong>ions for indirect access)<br />
Optimizing costs by exploiting resources cost-effectively<br />
<strong>to</strong> ensure competitively priced products<br />
Restructuring oper<strong>at</strong>ions (incl. small-scale plants)<br />
<strong>to</strong> supply local/regional markets<br />
Forging str<strong>at</strong>egic rel<strong>at</strong>ions with local emerging market<br />
suppliers <strong>to</strong> provide technologies and services for<br />
<strong>the</strong> booming infrastructure sec<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Taking marketing actions <strong>to</strong> establish a regional brand<br />
among emerging market suppliers
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
A squandering society with high resource<br />
intensity and low protectionism<br />
Developed n<strong>at</strong>ions can potentially profit by supporting emerging<br />
n<strong>at</strong>ions' efforts <strong>to</strong> mass-produce low-cost goods. A particularly<br />
apt example is Siemens' SMART product line. In this scenario,<br />
more global <strong>at</strong>tention is paid <strong>to</strong> "reverse innov<strong>at</strong>ion", inventions<br />
cre<strong>at</strong>ed in developing countries and dissemin<strong>at</strong>ed <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
industrialized world. An example is <strong>the</strong> T<strong>at</strong>a Nano au<strong>to</strong>mobile,<br />
upgraded for Western markets and marketed as T<strong>at</strong>a Europe.<br />
Gigantic, complex supply chains cre<strong>at</strong>e immense business value<br />
for companies th<strong>at</strong> have <strong>the</strong> capability <strong>to</strong> orchestr<strong>at</strong>e <strong>the</strong>se<br />
chains and delay cus<strong>to</strong>miz<strong>at</strong>ion. Technology companies th<strong>at</strong> can<br />
"glue" <strong>the</strong> manufacturing economy <strong>to</strong>ge<strong>the</strong>r will increasingly<br />
capture value. Large-scale fossil fuel power plants still domin<strong>at</strong>e<br />
<strong>the</strong> energy sec<strong>to</strong>r, driving open-pit mining for coal and more<br />
exploit<strong>at</strong>ion of resources in Africa. Gas guzzlers domin<strong>at</strong>e<br />
<strong>the</strong> au<strong>to</strong>motive landscape. Millions of first-time car buyers in<br />
<strong>the</strong> emerging markets of China and India crave prestige cars<br />
from <strong>the</strong> West. Western manufacturers are able <strong>to</strong> exploit<br />
this lucr<strong>at</strong>ive market. Electric vehicle technology transfers<br />
from developed <strong>to</strong> developing countries, only <strong>to</strong> languish in a<br />
niche existence. Industrialized n<strong>at</strong>ions' renewable energy<br />
solutions take a backse<strong>at</strong>, as do micro energy gener<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
technologies.<br />
Setting up local R&D facilities <strong>to</strong> fulfill cus<strong>to</strong>mer needs<br />
and ensure know-<strong>how</strong> transfer<br />
Guaranteeing access <strong>to</strong> well-educ<strong>at</strong>ed personnel with local<br />
market know-<strong>how</strong> <strong>to</strong> develop innov<strong>at</strong>ive products and solutions<br />
Developing mass production capabilities <strong>to</strong> address<br />
emerging market demand<br />
Optimizing costs <strong>to</strong> offer competitively priced products<br />
Setting up a global supply chain <strong>to</strong> guarantee delivery<br />
of Western products like prestige cars <strong>to</strong> emerging markets<br />
and also <strong>to</strong> market reverse innov<strong>at</strong>ions back <strong>to</strong><br />
industrialized n<strong>at</strong>ions
Study 19<br />
Capitalism goes green with low resource<br />
intensity and low protectionism<br />
Developed economies pursue strong market opportunities in a<br />
low protectionist environment conducive <strong>to</strong> foreign direct<br />
investment and knowledge transfer. There is high uptake in <strong>the</strong><br />
renewable energy sec<strong>to</strong>r, which benefits developed country<br />
providers and equipment manufacturers. Micro energy gener<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
technologies are widespread. With <strong>the</strong> required infrastructure<br />
in place, electric vehicles are prevalent. Western companies have<br />
<strong>the</strong> opportunity <strong>to</strong> export <strong>the</strong>ir car technologies <strong>to</strong> emerging<br />
markets. Novel m<strong>at</strong>erials are designed for specific uses and<br />
environments. Additive manufacturing moves out of niche<br />
applic<strong>at</strong>ions in<strong>to</strong> mainstream manufacturing. Increased use of<br />
steel and glass, especially in buildings, lowers demand for cement.<br />
A potentially large market develops for Western construction<br />
companies. The regional winners will be Western Europe, North<br />
America, Japan, Brazil, India and China.<br />
This future also sees an end <strong>to</strong> rising energy demand as fossil fuel<br />
power gener<strong>at</strong>ion declines. Traditional Middle East fossil fuel<br />
economies are <strong>the</strong> losers in this scenario. Western dependence<br />
on oil-exporting countries such as Iran decreases significantly.<br />
Green capitalism stresses <strong>the</strong> mining industry as substitutes are<br />
found and consumers lobby against excessive and destructive<br />
mining practices.<br />
Complying with environmental standards <strong>to</strong> s<strong>at</strong>isfy<br />
regul<strong>at</strong>ions and consumer requirements<br />
Setting up local R&D facilities <strong>to</strong> fulfill cus<strong>to</strong>mer needs<br />
and ensure know-<strong>how</strong> transfer<br />
Securing access <strong>to</strong> well-educ<strong>at</strong>ed personnel <strong>to</strong> develop<br />
innov<strong>at</strong>ive products and solutions, such as lightweight<br />
m<strong>at</strong>erials and biodegradable components<br />
Instituting a green product life cycle, including a<br />
green global supply chain<br />
Adopting a modular manufacturing philosophy with<br />
made-<strong>to</strong>-order production
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
Conclusion<br />
How <strong>to</strong> benefit from <strong>the</strong> different scenarios
Study 21<br />
Trying <strong>to</strong> identify business opportunities in an uncertain future is<br />
a <strong>to</strong>ugh challenge. But <strong>the</strong> scenario <strong>planning</strong> designed by HHL<br />
Leipzig and <strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> helps str<strong>at</strong>egic planners and decisionmakers<br />
identify <strong>the</strong> most relevant future scenarios in specific<br />
industries and regions.<br />
Each of <strong>the</strong> four scenarios described for <strong>the</strong> global manufacturing<br />
industry represents an extreme vision of <strong>the</strong> future. The world may<br />
never resemble any of <strong>the</strong>se positions exactly, but <strong>the</strong> trends and<br />
issues identified in each will shape <strong>the</strong> eventual outcomes.<br />
Industries in any region could exhibit characteristics from different<br />
scenarios depending on <strong>how</strong> protectionism and resource intensity<br />
affect industry-specific dynamics. Companies from developed<br />
n<strong>at</strong>ions will succeed if <strong>the</strong>y can identify opportunities th<strong>at</strong> cut<br />
across several scenarios and, with a little tweaking, <strong>find</strong> str<strong>at</strong>egies<br />
<strong>to</strong> capture <strong>the</strong> full potential of any possible scenario.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
Author<br />
Bernd Brunke<br />
Partner and Member of <strong>the</strong><br />
Global Executive Committee, Berlin<br />
bernd.brunke@rolandberger.com<br />
Benno van Dongen<br />
Partner, Amsterdam<br />
benno.dongen@rolandberger.com<br />
William Downey<br />
Partner, New York<br />
william.downey@rolandberger.com<br />
Co-Authors<br />
Chris<strong>to</strong>phe Angoulvant<br />
Partner, Paris<br />
chris<strong>to</strong>phe.angoulvant@rolandberger.com<br />
Duce Go<strong>to</strong>ra<br />
Project Manager, London<br />
duce.go<strong>to</strong>ra@rolandberger.com<br />
Dr. Wilfried Aulbur<br />
Partner, Mumbai<br />
wilfried.aulbur@rolandberger.com<br />
Carolin Griese-Michels<br />
Principal, Hamburg<br />
carolin.griese@rolandberger.com<br />
Andreas Bauer<br />
Partner, Munich<br />
andreas.bauer@rolandberger.com<br />
Maren Hauptmann<br />
Partner, Munich<br />
maren.hauptmann@rolandberger.com
Study 23<br />
Daniel Himmel<br />
Project Manager, Berlin<br />
daniel.himmel@rolandberger.com<br />
Per I. Nilsson<br />
Partner, S<strong>to</strong>ckholm<br />
per-i.nilsson@rolandberger.com<br />
Nicklas Holgersson<br />
Project Manager, London<br />
nicklas.holgersson@rolandberger.com<br />
Dr. Verena Reichl<br />
Senior Expert, Munich<br />
verena.reichl@rolandberger.com<br />
Fabian Huhle<br />
Principal, Munich<br />
fabian.huhle@rolandberger.com<br />
Tina Wang<br />
Partner, Beijing<br />
tina.wang@rolandberger.com<br />
Dr. Johannes Klein<br />
Principal, Berlin<br />
johannes.klein@rolandberger.com<br />
Dr. Tim Zimmermann<br />
Partner, Munich<br />
tim.zimmermann@rolandberger.com<br />
Frank L<strong>at</strong>eur<br />
Principal, Brussels<br />
frank.l<strong>at</strong>eur@rolandberger.com<br />
Dr. Michael Zollenkop<br />
Principal, Stuttgart<br />
michael.zollenkop@rolandberger.com
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
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F. Pearce (2011)<br />
The coming popul<strong>at</strong>ion crash – And our planet's surprising future<br />
Popul<strong>at</strong>ion Resource Center (2008)<br />
Popul<strong>at</strong>ion and <strong>the</strong> food crisis<br />
C. K. Prahalad (2006)<br />
The innov<strong>at</strong>ion paradox
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
I. Razak (2009)<br />
The correl<strong>at</strong>ion between popul<strong>at</strong>ion and<br />
economic growth in Malaysia<br />
P. Reddy (2008)<br />
Global innov<strong>at</strong>ion in emerging economies –<br />
Implic<strong>at</strong>ions for o<strong>the</strong>r developing countries<br />
Q. M. Robinson and H. J. Park (2006)<br />
Examining <strong>the</strong> link between diversity and firm performance:<br />
The effects of diversity reput<strong>at</strong>ion and leader racial diversity<br />
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
– Au<strong>to</strong>motive Landscape 2025 (2011)<br />
– Corpor<strong>at</strong>e headquarters study (2005, 2008, 2010)<br />
– Frugal products (2012)<br />
– Manufacturing futures – Using scenario <strong>planning</strong> <strong>to</strong> identify<br />
opportunities in a multi-sec<strong>to</strong>r industry (2011)<br />
– Modular products – How <strong>to</strong> leverage modular product kits<br />
for growth and globaliz<strong>at</strong>ion (2012)<br />
– Organizing and managing R&D in high-tech industries (2011)<br />
– think: act CONTENT – Diversity and inclusion <strong>to</strong>o soft a subject<br />
Not <strong>at</strong> all (2010)<br />
– think: act CONTENT – <strong>Scenario</strong> <strong>planning</strong> (2009)<br />
– think: act STUDY – Chinese consumer report (2009)<br />
– think: act STUDY – Delivering financial services in<br />
sub-Saharan Africa (2011)<br />
– Trend Compendium 2030 (2011)<br />
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> School of Str<strong>at</strong>egy and Economics (2012)<br />
<strong>Scenario</strong> upd<strong>at</strong>e 2012<br />
Saleschase (2012)<br />
Why mobile marketing in emerging markets is <strong>the</strong> next big thing<br />
F. Siebdr<strong>at</strong>, M. Hoegl and H. Ernst (2009)<br />
How <strong>to</strong> manage virtual teams<br />
L. Taylor (2011)<br />
Diabetes - pharma's fastest-growing market<br />
The German Found<strong>at</strong>ion for World Popul<strong>at</strong>ion (2011, 2012)<br />
Online project: 7 billion<br />
United N<strong>at</strong>ions Conference on Trade and Development<br />
(2010, 2011)<br />
World Investment Report<br />
United N<strong>at</strong>ions (1960, 2009, 2010, 2011)<br />
The future growth of <strong>the</strong> world popul<strong>at</strong>ion (1960)<br />
World Popul<strong>at</strong>ion Prospects – The 2009 and 2010 Revision<br />
World Urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion Prospects – The 2009 and 2011 Revision<br />
W. W. Weber (2008)<br />
Managing complexity – Lessons from Peter Drucker and<br />
Niklas Luhmann<br />
T. Yasuyuki and S. Hi<strong>to</strong>shi (2011)<br />
Effects of CEOs' characteristics on intern<strong>at</strong>ionaliz<strong>at</strong>ion of<br />
small and medium enterprises in Japan<br />
W. Zhang (2011)<br />
Understanding China's economic trajec<strong>to</strong>ry<br />
World Bank (2011)<br />
The Ease of Doing Business Index<br />
World Economic Forum et al. (2010)<br />
Stimul<strong>at</strong>ing economies through fostering talent mobility<br />
World Economic Forum (2012)<br />
WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2011/2012<br />
WorldPay (2012)<br />
Global Online Shopping Report<br />
Simon Kucher (2011)<br />
Dax Management: Sehr intern<strong>at</strong>ional aber kaum weiblich<br />
Spiegel Magazine (44/2011)<br />
Das große Schrumpfen<br />
Süddeutsche Zeitung (6/2012)<br />
Die digitale Revolution erobert Afrika
Study 27<br />
Credits<br />
Pages 2: sinopictures/viewchina<br />
Special thanks <strong>to</strong><br />
Our interviewees:<br />
Siegfried Gänßlen, CEO Hansgrohe AG<br />
Manfred Grundke, General Partner Knauf Gips KG<br />
Ruth Schaefer, CEO Ruth Schaefer Intercultural
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
Global Topics<br />
project description<br />
With our GLOBAL TOPICS initi<strong>at</strong>ive, we<br />
assess <strong>the</strong> most pressing issues for<br />
leaders in society, business and politics<br />
and outline possible solutions.
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants<br />
For more inform<strong>at</strong>ion, please visit:<br />
www.rolandberger.com/global<strong>to</strong>pics<br />
If you have any questions, please contact us <strong>at</strong>:<br />
global_<strong>to</strong>pics@rolandberger.com<br />
<strong>Roland</strong> <strong>Berger</strong> Str<strong>at</strong>egy Consultants GmbH<br />
HighLight Towers, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str. 6, 80807 Munich, Germany
Study 30