IMFS_2009_to_2013_web

Orphanides compared the ways European governments acted in
former crises with the current crisis. In the past, politicians usually
worked towards a solution that also advanced the European
project. Today, they do not immediately address problems even
if these were recognized. According to Orphanides, the reason
is a crisis of European political leadership. Governments prefer to
postpone decisions that involve political costs - especially shortly
before elections. With always having an election in one country
of the Eurozone, there is risk of a permanent blockade. Only the
threat of an imminent collapse could encourage politicians to
incur the political costs. He regrets in this regard that during the
current crisis interventions of the ECB diffused the pressure on
political leaders to solve upcoming problems.
In the end, Michael Burda presented three scenarios of how
Europe could look like in ten years. He gave an optimistic, a
pessimistic and a realistic outlook. He considered as realistic that
the Euro remains the common currency in all Euro countries,
but transfer payments will continue to be made within the
EU. Furthermore, Burda assumed that Greece receives a debt
reduction but doesn’t continue with its reform efforts. Finally, he
warns the European governments that they should go back to
the no-bailout principle and be no longer liable for the debt of
other member countries.
As last speaker, the honored Stefan Gerlach took the opportunity
to stress the importance of the interdisciplinary research
conducted by the IMFS. The symposium was closed by the
Managing Director of the IMFS, Volker Wieland.
Registered participants: 170, Registered journalists: 21
30.11. – 01.12.2012
4 th Workshop on Money,
Macro and Finance in East Asia
Organized by
Peter Tillmann (University of Giessen and IMFS)
Heinz Hermann (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Michael Funke (University of Hamburg)
The 4 th Workshop on Money, Macro and Finance in East Asia was
organized jointly by the IMFS, the Deutsche Bundesbank, and
the University of Hamburg and took place in the Bundesbank’s
training center in Eltville. The workshop traditionally brings
together researchers from universities and central banks who
deal with current macroeconomic and financial developments
in East Asia. The topics discussed in 2012 included: China’s role
in the development of global inflation; global imbalances from a
regional perspective using Chinese regions as an example; liberalization
of capital accounts in China and its effects on Renminbi
exchange rates; demographic factors for determining real interest
rates in Japan; modeling macroprudential policy for Hong
Kong and Korea and the monetary policy regime in Singapore.
The tremendous relevance of East Asia’s economies for the international
economic development increasingly shifts the focus of
economic research on macroeconomic and monetary issues
toward the region. The economic policy experience from this
region, such as the application of macroprudential measures, is
particularly relevant for European economies.
The workshop’s highlight was the keynote by Andrew Filardo
(Bank for International Settlements), who discussed the challenges
for the international monetary system in the context of
international spillover effects and focused on the implications for
Asian economies. Andrew Filardo also discussed the geopolitical
reactions to “tail risks”, the effects of volatile international capital
flows, and the perspectives of economic policy coordination in
East Asia.
Registered participants: 30
29.11.2012
Monetary and Fiscal Challenges in the United States
and the Euro Area
Organized by Helmut Siekmann and Volker Wieland
In November 2012, the IMFS and the House of Finance jointly
organized a lunchtime conference on “Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Challenges in the United States and the Euro Area”. Richard W.
Fisher, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, started off the conference with a speech on the
current monetary and fiscal challenges in the United States, which
was both entertaining and interesting.
Fisher called on the U.S. government to provide the necessary
conditions for job creation. He argued that monetary policy had
already done its homework. “We filled up the tank, now we’re
just waiting for the signal to go.” He explained that now it was
fiscal policy’s turn. Fisher particularly emphasized the need to
avoid the “fiscal cliff” – the simultaneous increase in tax rates and
decrease of government spending through sequestration – at
the end of the year. He claimed that if businesses do not trust
long-term fiscal policy, they would not create jobs. He argued that
monetary policymakers must realize that they are reaching their
limits in terms of the job market.
Following the speech by Fisher, Volker Wieland presented current
research based on a model developed by the European Central
Bank. According to this model, states facing consolidation pressure
should give preference to spending cuts over increasing taxes,
especially income taxes, as tax increases have negative short and
long-term effects on the economy.
The conference was concluded with a Q&A session with the audience
and journalists.
Registered participants: 110, Registered journalists: 183
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