Projected Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Information - Mobile MPO
Projected Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Information - Mobile MPO
Projected Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Information - Mobile MPO
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Task 2: Climate <strong>Information</strong><br />
<strong>Projected</strong> <strong>Sea</strong>-<strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong> <strong>Information</strong><br />
1
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>Storm</strong>s<br />
• <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> (SLR)<br />
• Potential inundation from three sea level rise<br />
scenarios spanning range of recent scientific estimates<br />
• Accounting for l<strong>and</strong> subsidence<br />
• <strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong> (SS) Modeling<br />
• ADCIRC model<br />
• Scenarios (see subsequent slide)<br />
• Output includes surge distribution <strong>and</strong> depth<br />
• Local guidance provided by South Coast Engineers<br />
• Wave Modeling<br />
• STWAVE Model<br />
• Inputs from ADCIRC output <strong>and</strong> boundary conditions<br />
• Outputs include key aspects of wave energy<br />
• GIS analysis<br />
• Exposure of transportation systems to SLR, SS/wave action<br />
2
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
• <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> Scenarios:<br />
Based on state-of-the-art underst<strong>and</strong>ing of SLR (post-IPCC), e.g., NRC (2010)<br />
• 30cm by 2050<br />
• 75cm by 2100<br />
• 200cm by 2100<br />
• L<strong>and</strong> Subsidence<br />
Accounting for l<strong>and</strong> subsidence using InSAR <strong>and</strong> survey data. Data provided by<br />
USGS.<br />
3
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
TO BE<br />
REPLACED BY A<br />
FIGURE FROM<br />
CHRIS ON<br />
MONDAY<br />
4
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
5
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
6
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
7
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
<strong>Storm</strong> Scenarios<br />
Hurricane Georges<br />
Natural Path, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Natural Path, 30 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Natural Path, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Natural Path, 200 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Hurricane Katrina<br />
Natural Path, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Natural Path, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Shifted, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Shifted, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Shifted, Intensified, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Shifted, Intensified, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
Shifted, Intensified, Pressure Reduced, 75 CM<br />
<strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
8
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Georges: Simulation vs. Observation<br />
Dauphin Isl<strong>and</strong><br />
9
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina: Simulation vs. Observation<br />
Dauphin Isl<strong>and</strong><br />
10
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Georges Natural Path, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Georges Natural Path, 30 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Georges Natural Path, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Georges Natural Path, 200 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Natural Path, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Natural Path, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
Shifting the Hurricane Katrina Path<br />
17
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Shifted, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Shifted, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Shifted, Constant Max Winds, No <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Shifted, Max Winds Constant, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Katrina Shifted, Pressure Reduced, 75 CM <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong>
Observations at <strong>Mobile</strong> State Docks Tidal<br />
Station<br />
• Nearby ADCIRC Node: 347,463<br />
• Original Elevation, 2.538 Meters Above <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong><br />
ADCIRC Model<br />
Maximum Elevation in Meters<br />
Hurricane Georges Natural Path 3.4301<br />
Hurricane Katrina Natural Path 3.7556<br />
Georges Natural Path with 75 cm <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> 4.1192<br />
Katrina Natural Path with 75 cm <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> 4.5897<br />
Shifted Hurricane Katrina Path 5.8795<br />
Hurricane Katrina Shifted Path with 75 cm <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> 6.8915<br />
Shifted Intensified Katrina 8.3831<br />
Shifted Intensified Katrina with 75 cm <strong>Sea</strong> <strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong> 9.4044<br />
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<strong>Projected</strong> Climate Data—<strong>Sea</strong>-<strong>Level</strong> <strong>Rise</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>Storm</strong> <strong>Surge</strong><br />
Any questions on projected data sea-level rise or<br />
storm surge<br />
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