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Impact Of Climate Change On Structures<br />

On Permafrost<br />

Presented by Igor Holubec 2007 PMC<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Topics To Be Covered<br />

• Air temperature changes<br />

• Ground temperatures & permafrost<br />

• Permafrost<br />

• Dams & wastes on permafrost<br />

• Building <strong>foundations</strong><br />

• Effect of climate warming on <strong>foundations</strong><br />

• Foundation design options for climate<br />

warming<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Climate Warming In Northern<br />

Canada<br />

Air temperature changes<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Recent and Predicted Global<br />

Climate Warming<br />

IPCC 2007<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Global Mean Air Temperature Rise Trend<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Climate Warming In Inuvik<br />

-2<br />

INUVIK (68° 18' N, 133° 28'W, 68m<br />

Me ean Annual Air Temperat ture, deg C<br />

-4<br />

-6<br />

-8<br />

-10<br />

-12<br />

y = 0.0746x - 156.8<br />

Air temp -7.2°C<br />

Ground temp ~ - 2.8°C<br />

Ground temperature<br />

at 0°C<br />

Temperatures<br />

Ground=Air + 4.4ºC<br />

-14<br />

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Temperatures In Permafrost<br />

• Mean annual ground temperature is about<br />

4.4ºC warmer than<br />

mean annual air temperature<br />

• Present ground temperatures & its changes<br />

• Climate & ground temperature warming<br />

• Permafrost<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


2006 MAGT from MAAT<br />

<br />

-6.0°<br />

-11.2°<br />

<br />

-2.8°<br />

<br />

-0.3°<br />

-2.4° <br />

<br />

-8.6°<br />

-5.0 50°<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

+1.0°<br />

-4.9°<br />

<br />

-6.3°<br />

-5.5°<br />

-9.4° -2.3°<br />

<br />

<br />

-2.9°<br />

+0.9 9°<br />

<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

CONTINUOUS PERMAFROST<br />

EXTENSIVE PERMAFROST<br />

SPORADIC PERMAFROST<br />

NRC Permafrost Map<br />

MCR 4177FF, 1995<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


As Permafrost Warms<br />

Permafrost warms >-2ºC<br />

• Weak ground – instability<br />

• Pile <strong>foundations</strong> heave & settle<br />

• Dams without thermosyphon will start to seep<br />

Permafrost ≥ 0ºC<br />

• Slope sloughing & instability<br />

• Ice melts – thaw settlement<br />

• Ice melts<br />

– seepage through sands, gravels<br />

and rock fractures<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Temperature Changes<br />

0<br />

-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12<br />

2<br />

4<br />

Dep pth, m<br />

6<br />

8<br />

10<br />

12<br />

14<br />

Jun o1<br />

Jul-01<br />

Aug-01<br />

Sep-01<br />

Oct-01<br />

Nov-01<br />

Dec-01<br />

Mean Annual<br />

Jan-02<br />

Feb-02<br />

Ground Temperature<br />

Mar-02<br />

16<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Temperatures At Inuvik<br />

Air temperature, deg C<br />

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4<br />

0<br />

2<br />

4<br />

6<br />

Depth, m<br />

8<br />

10<br />

12<br />

19-Nov-06<br />

10-Feb-07<br />

09-Mar-07<br />

11-Jun-07<br />

14<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Time Relation Between Air & Ground<br />

Temperature<br />

14 20<br />

C<br />

Ground tem mperature, deg<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

-6<br />

<br />

-3.3°C<br />

+13°C<br />

Ground temperature<br />

at 3.5m depth<br />

Mean monthly air temperature<br />

<br />

-1.2°C<br />

<br />

-26°C<br />

6-May-02 5-Jul-02 3-Sep-02 2-Nov-02 1-Jan-03 2-Mar-03 1-May-03<br />

10<br />

0<br />

-10<br />

-20<br />

-30<br />

, deg C<br />

r temperature,<br />

Mea an monthly ai<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Forms Of Ice Permafrost<br />

ICE WEDGES<br />

ICE RICH SOIL<br />

PALSAS<br />

MASSIVE<br />

ICE LENSES<br />

ICE IN<br />

ROCK FRACTURES<br />

ICE FORMS<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Permafrost Terrain Types<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Excavation at Aurora College, Inuvik<br />

2.6m<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Climate Warming Rate<br />

• Not an exact science<br />

Two methods<br />

• Computer models – related to<br />

estimates of future green house gases<br />

projections<br />

• Extend recent linear air temperature<br />

trends<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Summary of MAGT & its Warming<br />

based on linear trends<br />

Region<br />

Western Arctic & Arctic<br />

Mackenzie Valley<br />

Central Mainland Arctic<br />

2006 MAGT Mean warming<br />

Range rate deg C°/10<br />

deg C<br />

yr<br />

1 to -3 0.6<br />

-5 to -6 a 11<br />

Eastern Arctic 1 to -3 17<br />

Arctic Islands -8 to -12 9<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


As Permafrost Warms<br />

Permafrost warms >-2ºC<br />

• Weak ground – instability<br />

• Pile <strong>foundations</strong> heave & settle<br />

• Dams without thermosyphon will start to seep<br />

Permafrost ≥ 0ºC<br />

• Slope sloughing & instability<br />

• Ice melts – thaw settlement<br />

• Ice melts<br />

– seepage through sands, gravels<br />

and rock fractures<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


DESIGN CRITERIA IN PERMAFROST<br />

GROUND TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT<br />

For dams<br />

Frozen <strong>foundations</strong><br />

Maximum ground temperature - 2ºC<br />

For Pile Foundation<br />

Maximum ground temperature - 2ºC<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Vulnerability of Structures on<br />

Permafrost<br />

Type<br />

Mine Wastes<br />

Dams<br />

Degree & Time<br />

High – 40 to 80 years<br />

High – 20 to 50 years<br />

Building Foundations Medium – present &<br />

near future<br />

Roads & Pipelines Medium to low –<br />

present & near future<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Dams & Waste Storage<br />

• Design<br />

• Impact of climate warming<br />

• Potential ti modifications<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Dam Design On Frozen Ground<br />

LINER<br />

ROCKFILL<br />

DAM<br />

THAWED<br />

GROUND<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

PERMAFROST<br />

THERMOSYPHON COOLING<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Selected Dams in NU & NT<br />

Lupin Mine (1981)<br />

Ekati Mine, Outlet Dam (1998)<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

Diavik Mine, Sediment Pond (2000)<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Dam Failures & Dump Erosion<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Dam Design Concepts<br />

LINER<br />

••••<br />

FROZEN<br />

THERMOSYPHON PIPES<br />

PERMAFROST REGIONS<br />

NO SEEPAGE<br />

FILL<br />

CLAY ZONE<br />

DRAINAGE<br />

BLANKET<br />

SEEPAGE<br />

WARM REGIONS<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Solid Waste Storage In Permafrost<br />

Tailings<br />

Landfills<br />

Mine rock dumps<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Short-term Design<br />

Preserve frozen foundation<br />

Some Long-term Design<br />

• Dams – breach or design for non-permafrost<br />

condition<br />

• Buildings – Dismantle at end of life span<br />

• Mine and municipal wastes – Durable slow<br />

erosion covers – minimize surface water<br />

erosion<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Foundations in Permafrost<br />

• Historic foundation designs<br />

• Temp design criterion<br />

• Performance<br />

• Design options for <strong>foundations</strong> in<br />

warming/thawing permafrost<br />

– Thick granular pad<br />

– Deep <strong>foundations</strong><br />

– <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> passive cooling<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Historic Foundations<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Slurry Pile In Frozen Ground<br />

Drill hole<br />

Install pile<br />

Place wet sand<br />

and allow to freeze<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Common Foundation Design<br />

BUILDING<br />

PILES<br />

AIR SPACE<br />

PERMAFROST<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Pile Foundation Failures As<br />

Permafrost Warms<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Annual Ground Temperature Fluctuations<br />

0<br />

-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12<br />

2<br />

4<br />

De epth, m<br />

6<br />

8<br />

10<br />

12<br />

14<br />

Jun o1<br />

Jul-01<br />

Aug-01<br />

Sep-01<br />

Oct-01<br />

Nov-01<br />

Dec-01<br />

Jan-02<br />

Feb-02<br />

Mar-02<br />

16<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Critical Ground Temperature Profiles<br />

Ground temperatures, deg C<br />

-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8<br />

0<br />

2<br />

4<br />

Max'm<br />

heave<br />

e<br />

potential<br />

Max'm<br />

settlement<br />

potential<br />

Depth,<br />

m<br />

6<br />

8<br />

10<br />

Oct-01<br />

Dec-01<br />

Maxium Design<br />

Groung Temp<br />

-2.0ºC<br />

12<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Slurry Pile In Frozen Ground<br />

September<br />

SETTLEMENT<br />

Thawed<br />

zone<br />

November<br />

HEAVE<br />

‘Cold’<br />

High strength<br />

ground<br />

heaves<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

‘Warm’<br />

Low strength<br />

Permafrost<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Distress Signs – Walls & Doors<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Settlement, Pile Extension<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Pile Heave, Bending Of Beams<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Settlement Adjustments<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Foundations For Climate Warming<br />

• Thick granular pads<br />

• Deep piles into low ice soil<br />

• <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> <strong>foundations</strong><br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Granular Pad Foundation<br />

Spoil<br />

organic layer<br />

Re-use thawed<br />

Drained soil<br />

~3 to 4m<br />

Thawed<br />

& refrozen<br />

zone<br />

~1m<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Deep Pipe Foundation<br />

~ 10m<br />

‘End’ bearing into<br />

low or non<br />

ice rich soil<br />

Grouted<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Thaw In Warm Permafrost<br />

Region<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


<strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundations<br />

• <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Probes<br />

• Thermopiles<br />

• Sloped thermosyphon<br />

• Flat loop thermosyphon<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Flat Loop <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundation<br />

Cambridge Bay School<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


<strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundation Types<br />

BUILDING<br />

BUILDING<br />

BUILDING<br />

b) Sloping evaporator<br />

thermosyphon<br />

c) Flat looped evaporator<br />

thermosyphon<br />

a) Thermopile<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


<strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Concept<br />

Gas<br />

HEAT OUT<br />

AIR<br />

cold<br />

GROUND<br />

warm<br />

COND<br />

DENSATE FLOW<br />

VAPOUR<br />

FLOW<br />

EVAPORA<br />

ATIO COND<br />

DENSATION<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

HEAT IN<br />

Liquid<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Flat Loop <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Concept<br />

HEAT OUT<br />

CONDENSER<br />

(RADIATOR)<br />

CONDENSATE<br />

FLOW<br />

VAPOUR FLOW<br />

FLUID<br />

EVAPORATOR PIPE<br />

VAPOUR<br />

HEAT IN<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Design Components Of Flat Loop<br />

Slab-on-grade <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> h Foundation<br />

RADIATOR<br />

CONDENSOR PIPE<br />

EVAPORATOR PIPE<br />

<br />

VALVE<br />

CONCRETE SLAB<br />

GRANULAR<br />

RIGID<br />

INSULATION<br />

BEDDING<br />

NON-FROST SUSCEPTIBLE<br />

GRANULAR BASE<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Flat Loop <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundation<br />

THERMOSYPHON<br />

COOLING<br />

BUILDING<br />

INSULATION<br />

PERMAFROST<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Design Options<br />

RADIATORS<br />

FLOOR<br />

FLOOR<br />

GROUND<br />

BEAM<br />

CRAWL SPACE<br />

GRANULAR<br />

EVAPORATOR<br />

PIPES<br />

INSULATION<br />

a) Slab-on-grade b) Crawl-space<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Flat Loop <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundation<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Solution - <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundation<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Inuvik Hospital – Crawl Space Design<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Aurora College, Inuvik, NT<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Temperatures With Time<br />

10<br />

Aurora College T5<br />

5<br />

2002<br />

2003 2004<br />

Ground tem mperature, deg C<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

Depth<br />

0<br />

10m 1.0m<br />

2.0m<br />

3.0m<br />

4.0m<br />

6.0m<br />

-20<br />

3-Jun-02 2-Sep-02 2-Dec-02 3-Mar-03 2-Jun-03 1-Sep-03 1-Dec-03 1-Mar-04 31-May-04 30-Aug-04<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Ground Temperatures With Time<br />

Ground temperature, deg C<br />

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8<br />

0<br />

1<br />

Depth below evap portor pipes, m<br />

2<br />

3<br />

4<br />

5<br />

6<br />

19-Jul-02<br />

17-Sep-02<br />

20-Oct-02<br />

11-Dec-02<br />

07-Jan-03<br />

03<br />

17 May-03"<br />

15 Jul-03<br />

09-Dec-03<br />

Granular<br />

Fill<br />

Natural<br />

Ground<br />

Aurora College, T5<br />

7<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Number Of <strong>Thermosyphon</strong>s Installed<br />

In Canada Since 1985<br />

Region<br />

Number<br />

Nunavut 52<br />

Northwest Territory 41<br />

Manitoba 15<br />

Quebec 10<br />

Yukon 8<br />

Ontario 1<br />

Total 127<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


PIEVC <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> Foundations<br />

In Warm Permafrost Study<br />

Assess performance of<br />

• Four case histories in Inuvik<br />

• Other case histories in Iqaluit,<br />

Pangnirtung, Kuujjuaq, Rankin Inlet<br />

and others<br />

Evaluate their potential as a<br />

foundation design for climate<br />

warming<br />

Performance risks during 50 year<br />

design live<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Conclusions<br />

• <strong>Thermosyphon</strong> design developed as a<br />

foundation for warm permafrost.<br />

• In general, they have been performing well<br />

and provided intended results.<br />

• There have been some problems.<br />

• Problems are related to un-coordinated<br />

design and poor construction schedule and<br />

control.<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Conclusions<br />

• There is a need to refine design for<br />

<strong>foundations</strong> for structure with design life of<br />

50 years and in climate warming scenario.<br />

• There is a need for guidelines in several<br />

areas.<br />

• There is a need to monitor the performance<br />

and likely periodic maintenance over the 50<br />

years design life of this type of foundation.<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC


Thaw will ruin their ride<br />

Igor Holubec<br />

2007 Yellowknife PMC

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