Climate change and Rural Livelihoods in Northern Ethiopia

Outline
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Climate change-induced hazards
4. Impacts
5. Responses
6. Suggested strategies
7. Implications/policy and institutional
interventions

1. Introduction:
The problem in general
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The problem in particular
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Objectives of the study
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Methodology and approach
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Region Zone Wereda Sample Kebeles Sample Size
Amhara North Wello Meket
Tigray Debubawi Zone Raya Azebo
Mesfina (024) 55
Dibeko (026) 50
Ade-Halga 60
Hawelti 58
Total 2 Zones 2 Weredas 4 Kebeles 223
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Data sources and sampling
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Literature and conceptual framework
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Rainfall Variability:
National, Tigray & Arsi
Mean annual rainfall and C.V. in
drought-prone & non-drought
prone areas (1980-2001)

Profile of Meket and Raya Azebo
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Seasonal cropping calendar (Raya Azebo)

Seasonal cropping calendar (Meket)

Profile of Respondents
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Sample Household Size
Zone Wereda Kebele
Male Female Total
No % No % No %
024 (Mesfina) 37 24 15 22 52 23
N.Wello
Meket
026 (Dibeko) 40 26 14 20 54 24
D. Tigray Raya Azebo
Ade Halga 35 23 25 36 60 27
Hawelti 42 27 15 22 57 26
Total 2 weredas 4 kebeles 154 100 69 100 223 100

Family Size and Education
Study Wereda
Family Size
Meket Raya Azebo Total
No % No % No %
1-3 16 15.1 13 11.1 29 13.0
4-6 61 57.5 67 57.3 128 57.4
7-9 25 23.6 34 29.0 59 26.5
10-15 4 3.8 3 2.6 7 3.1
Total 106 100.0 117 100.0 223 100.0
Educational status Meket Raya Azebo Total
No. % No. % No. %
Illiterate 53 50.0 49 41.9 102 45.7
Read & write 22 20.8 17 14.5 39 17.5
Primary (Grades 1-6) 24 22.6 40 34.2 64 28.7
Post-primary 7 6.6 11 9.4 18 8.1
Total 106 100.0 117 100.0 223 100.0

Livelihood Activities
Study wereda
Livelihood sources
Meket Raya Azebo Total
No % No % No %
Crop cultivation 103 97.2 111 94.8 214 96.0
Livestock selling/fattening 21 19.8 31 26.5 52 23.3
Selling livestock products 39 36.8 18 15.4 57 25.6
Bee keeping 16 15.1 34 29.1 50 22.4
Production/selling of vegetables, fruits 14 13.2 44 37.6 58 26.0
Making and selling of charcoal 13 12.3 11 9.4 24 10.8
Selling firewood/cattle dung /fodder 39 36.8 30 25.6 69 30.9
Selling water 16 15.1 15 12.8 31 13.9
Incense and natural gum 7 6.6 7 6.0 14 6.3
Collection/sell of wild leaves and fruits 11 10.4 17 14.5 29 24.8
Extraction/selling minerals 2 1.9 9 7.7 11 4.9
Petty rural trade 67 63.2 33 28.2 100 44.8
Seasonal labor migration/casual jobs 79 74.5 58 49.6 137 61.4
Total 427 402.8 418 357.3 845 378.9

Land Holding…
Do you own land
Study wereda
Meket Raya Azebo Total
No. % No. % No. %
Yes 103 97.2 111 94.9 214 96.0
No 3 2.8 6 5.1 9 4.0
Total 106 100.0 117 100.0 223 100.0
Average size of cultivated land
Mean S.D Mean S.D. Mean S.D.
0.76 0.704 1.48 0.501 1.15 0.603
Do U have enough land for cultivation Meket Raya Azebo Total
Yes 21 20.4 50 45.0 71 33.2
No 82 79.6 61 55.0 143 66.8
Total 103 100.0 111 100.0 214 100.0
Use irrigation for growing crops Meket Raya Azebo Total
Yes 13 12.6 27 24.3 40 18.7
No 90 87.4 84 75.7 174 81.3
Total 103 100.0 111 100.0 214 100.0

Livestock holding
Wereda
Meket
Raya
Azebo
Wealth
category
Livestock wealth
Oxen
Cows Calves Shoats
Donkeys
&
Horses
Camels
TLU
Poor 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.93
Middle 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 3.0
Better-off 2.0 1.7 2.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 4.90
Poor 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.37
Middle 2.8 2.1 2.1 4.5 0.3 0.0 4.30
Better-off 2.6 3.2 2.8 5.1 0.7 2.0 6.39

Patterns of the local climate
Temperature variability and trends

Rainfall variability and trends
Number of rainy days

Perceptions of climate variability and change

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Local perceptions: FGDs
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Impacts of climate change-induced hazards
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Hazard type
Number of Affected households
Drought 22,810
Pest/locust infestation 8,622
Hailstorms/frost 6,415
Snow 3161
Total affected 41,008

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Crop harvest in 2008/09 compared to 2007/08
Sample wereda
Meket (n=103)
Raya Azebo (n=111)
Good 5.8 13.5
Normal 10.7 14.4
Poor 63.2 56.8
Complete crop failure 18.4 8.1
Did not farm at the time 1.9 7.2
Total 100.0 100.0
2008/09 harvest compared to the harvest 5 years before (in 2004/05) Meket Raya Azebo
Good 6.8 8.0
Normal 12.6 15.9
Poor 51.5 53.0
Complete crop failure 18.4 8.1
Did not farm at the time 10.7 15.0
Total 100.0 100.0
2008/09 harvest compared to your harvest 10 years ago (1998/99) Meket Rsaa Azebo
Good 2.9 4.4
Normal 6.8 7.1
Poor 58.3 62.7
Complete crop failure 18.4 8.1
Did not farm at the time 13.6 17.7
Total 100.0 100.0
2008/09 harvest compared to your harvest 20 years ago Meket Raya Azebo
Good 2.9 6.2
Normal 1.9 5.3
Poor 50.6 53.0
Complete crop failure 18.4 8.1
Did not farm at the time 26.2 27.4
Total 100.0 100.0

Labor availability at times of drought and major
food insecurity
Sample Weredas
Meket (N=106) Raya Azebo (N=117)
Increases - 12
Decreases 100.0 86.3
Remain same - 1.7
Total 100.0 100.0
The occurrence and duration of drought and food and
water insecurity in your locality with time Meket (N=106) Raya Azebo (N=117)
Intensified (got worse) 84.9 79.5
Declined (got better) 9.4 19.6
Remained same 5.7 0.9
Total 100.0 100.0
Number of food insecure households
Year (E.C.) Meket Raya Azebo
2001 52,293 (23%) 59,733 (43.9%)
2000 57,535 67,733
1999 59,505 59,733
1998 51,300 62,000
1997 49,582 82,000

Impacts on animal health and productivity
Average livestock possession
Livestock species
in each wereda
Oxen Cows Calves Shoats Camels Equines
Meket
Average livestock possession per 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 - 0.3
household (as of August 2010)
Average livestock possession per 0.5 0.7 2.4 3.1 - 0.7
household in 2005/06
Average livestock possession per 2.3 1.3 1.2 2.4 - 1.2
household in 2000/01
Average livestock possession per 2.4 2.8 2.3 7.1 - 1.6
household 20 years ago
Average livestock possession in
Oxen Cows Calves Shoats Camels Equines
Raya Azebo
Average livestock possession per 0.5 0.7 0.4 3.7 0.2 0.2
household (as of August 2010)
Average livestock possession per 1.1 1.6 2.2 3.7 0.1 0.2
household in 2005/06
Average livestock possession per 2.4 2.1 1.5 3.7 0.1 0.2
household in 2000/01
Average livestock possession per 2.7 2.8 2.2 9.6 - 0.4
household 20 years ago

Impacts on human health and nutrition
Year
(E.C.)
Number of people
affected by malaria
Common diseases (2002 E.C.)
Raya Azebo Meket Diseases Raya Meket
Azebo
2001 10,881 4005 Malaria 6620 5685
2000 23,583 - Diarrhea 4192 2911
1999 62,764 - Parasite 2932 4005
1998 113,609 5685 Respiratory 10,401 7285
1997 61,267 - Skin diseases 4655 2831

Gendered impacts
Wereda
During drought season
Meket
Raya Azebo
To fetch water To collect
firewood
To fetch water To collect
firewood
During the last 5 years 10.2 16.1 6.9 12.7
During the last 10 years 12.9 12.3 11.2 9.6
During the Derg period 16.3 8.2 13.1 8.7
Meket
Raya Azebo
During non-drought years To fetch water To collect
firewood
To fetch water To collect
firewood
During the last 5 years 6.1 8.7 4.7 9.4
During the last 10 years 7.3 9.3 7.1 7.9
During the Derg period 4.8 6.1 11.8 6.1

FGDs and interview results:
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Impacts on the local environment
Wereda
Change in forest woodland/grassland cover
with time
Meket (N=106)
RayaAzebo
(N=117)
Decreased 89.6 51.3
Increased 8.5 41.9
No much change 1.9 6.8
Total 100.0 100.0
Compared to the past, problem of soil erosion Meket (N=102) Raya Azebo
(N=114)
Decreased 39.2 67.3
Increased 58.9 32.7
Remained same 1.9 -
Total 100.0 100.0
Compared to the past, availability and Meket (N=103)
volume of water
Decreased 82.4 53.4
Increased 12.6 39.7
Remained same 4.9 6.9
Total 100.0 100.0
Raya Azebo
(N=116)

Impacts of climate change on key livelihood resources
Key livelihood resources
Natural capital
Impacts
• Soil erosion
• Gulley formation
• Deforestation
• Loss of indigenous tree and grass species
• Formation of localized deserts
Physical capital
• Drying up of springs, ponds….
• Destruction of physical infrastructure
• Decrease in river run-off
• Decrease in energy production
• Flood and drought impacts
Loss of income from crops (crop damage, failure, reduced productivity)
• Loss of income from livestock (decreased market price, decreased
productivity, emaciation and death)
• Expanding crop diseases
• Financial capital Loss of income from crops (crop damage, failure, reduced productivity)
•
Human capital Out-migration of adults
• Increased age dependency
• Increased workload on women and young people
• Impacts on education, health and well-being
• Poor housing and sanitation
• Expansion of malaria to highland areas
Displacement
•
Social capital Out-migration
• Family dislocation, separation, divorce
• Weakening social ties
• Erosion of institutions

Non-climate stressors affecting rural livelihoods
• Poverty and food insecurity
• Environmental degradation
• Population pressure
• Land hunger (scarcity, fragmentation, security issues)
• Poor health condition
• Limited economic opportunities/social infrastructural services
• Lack of access to relevant and up-to-date information and technology
• Local power relations and marginalization of some groups in access to credit,
extension services, social networks
• Discrimination based on gender and generation (age and sex)
• Out-migration of young and able-bodied men (and women)
• Land use conflicts

Current pressures & climate change threats to the ecosystem
Baseline Pressures
• Landlessness
• Minuscule plots
• Resource degradation
Climate Change Pressures
•Increasing temperature (impacts on
soil moisture, crop growth,
vegetation type, water stress)
•Increasing erosion (drought/flood)
•Siltation
•Flood-indeced landslide
•Inequitable access to
land and water resources
•Cyclical drought/frost
•Frost/hailstorms
•Landslides
•Lack of early warning
systems
•Reduced water quality & availability
(drought/flood/pollution)
•Changing seasonal water
distribution
•Siltation, salinization
•Intensifying drought/hail
•Severe flood/drought
•Novel disasters (diseases, pests…)

Livelihood (Vulnerability) profiling
Highly Vulnerable
Livelihood Groups
• Landless
• Small and marginal farmers
• Handicrafts
• Petty traders
• Agricultural wage laborers
Viable /Less Vulnerable
Livelihood Groups
• Urban based farmers/traders
• Rural livestock and commodity traders
• ‘Rich’/large farmers
• Households with diversified income
sources

Vulnerability and livelihood analysis
-Farm and non-farm workers
-Agriculture based wage laborers
Viable groups
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Asset bases of livelihood groups
Vulnerable groups
Viable groups

Adaptive responses by livelihood groups
Landless and
marginal farmers
• Smoothing/adjusting
consumption
• Eating wild/famine food
• Seeking food aid/cash transfers
• Begging/borrowing from relatives
• Public works (food-for- work)
• Herding livestock of other
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• Farming on sharecropping
arrangements
• Sell of charcoal/firewood
• Dung cake preparation and
selling
• Sell of fodder and grasses
• Casual labor
• Selling water
• Desperate out-migration
Agriculture-based
off-farm workers
• Modifying farming practices
• Water harvesting/storage
• Irrigation agriculture
• Combining multiple occupations
• Livestock husbandry and poultry
• Migration (seasonal and cyclical)
• Homestead gardening
• Bee-keeping
• Petty trade
• Crafts work
• Livestock fattening
• Early selling of weak and sick
livestock
• Diversifying livelihood activities
• Savings and credit
• Invest in the education of children
• Tree planting
Viable groups
• Combining multiple occupations
• Mortgaging properties
• Retail trade
• Investing in soil and water
conservation
• Homestead gardening
• Mortgaging properties
• Sell of business/seed money
• Cash crop production
• Saving grains
• Borrowing money to poor
households (with high interest)
• Modifying livestock diversity
(Switching from grazers to
browsers)
• Savings and credit
• Investing in education

Vulnerability of female headed households
Major cause of drought, famine and food insecurity
Wereda
Meket
(N=29)
Raya
(N=40)
Total
(N=69)
Rain failure/erraticity/heat waves 37.9 52.5 46.4
Intensive rain/hailstorm/frost/snow 13.8 5.0 8.7
Diseases and pests 6.9 17.5 13.1
Land degradation//soil erosion/deforestation 20.7 12.5 15.9
Socio-economic and political factors 13.8 7.5 10.1
God’s order 6.9 5.0 5.8
Total 100 100 100
Vulnerability factors/for FHHs
Climate (rainfall, temperature, hailstorm) 34.5 50.0 43.5
Nature (natural disasters, God’s will) 17.2 12.5 14.5
Human (household characteristics) and institutional factors 6.9 10.0 8.7
Socio-cultural 10.3 2.5 5.8
Economic limitations (financial, technological, land, livestock) 31.1 25.0 27.5
Total 100 100 100
Meket Raya Meket
(N=106) (N=117) (N=223)
Most vulnerable groups
1. The landless 34.9 27.4 30.9
2. Those with few or no livestock 28.3 35.0 31.8
3. Those with large family/high age dependency 12.2 18.0 15.2
4. Women/female headed households (lack of male labour) 18.9 16.2 17.6
5. Others 5.7 3.4 4.5
Total 100 100 100

Responses and coping strategies
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Limitations of indigenous coping strategies
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Determinants and barriers to local adaptation
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Barriers
Wereda
Barriers
Meket
Raya Azebo
Male Female Male Female
Financial 55.3 72.9 58.1 67.8
Natural (land and water shortages, poor soil, slope…) 53.5 44.5 37.5 38.7
Agricultural inputs, farm size) 31.1 5.7 24.3 21.5
Technological 23.5 7.6 10.4 12.3
Infrastructural/socio-economic services 21.2 12.8 11.6 3.5
Personal and household (information, education, 12.1 37.5 9.6 21.3
family size, networks)
Socio-cultural & political 11.5 21.4 3.9 5.6
Others 8.3 10.6 2.1 7.3
Total 226.5 213.0 157.5 178.0

Suggested strategies for responding to climate change
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Institutional and policy responses
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Implications
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