Broadband Wireless Opportunities - Wireless Communications ...

Broadband Wireless Opportunities
Eric Zimits
Managing Director
Hambrecht & Quist Research
February 23, 1999

H&Q Has a Clear Mission:
To help entrepreneurs and investors identify and
capitalize on growth opportunities generated by
the New Economy
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H&Q's Clients. . .
. . .Are Driving the New Economy
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Wireless Industry Phenomenal Growth
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Row
Japan
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Americas
U.S
200,000
100,000
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
H&Q Estimates
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Massive Shift in Market Share
Voice from wireline to wireless
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The Magnitude of Voice Market Suggests a Vast
Market for IP Communications
$ Billions
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Worldwide Voice Market
IP Communications
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The Internet’s Impact is only Beginning. . .
Basic access
The The Internet as as Media
media
E-Commerce drives market share shifts
Explosive proliferation of new applications
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Hottest Concepts in Communications
➤ Broadband
➤ Packet Switching
➤ Data/IP
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Bad News:
Today wireless is NONE OF THESE
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Good News:
It doesn’t have to be that way
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Major Market Opportunities for Broadband Wireless
➤ Mobile
➤ Local loop
➤ In-building
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Mobile – Where Are We Today
➤ 2-way paging
➤ Circuit switched cellular
➤ Packet cellular (CDPD and 2.5G)
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What Are The Problems
➤ Network coverage
➤ Network performance
➤ Service too expensive
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What Used To Be Problems
➤ Lack and cost of subscriber devices
➤ No applications
These Things are Fixed
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Is 3G the Answer to the Remaining Problems
Wrong Departure Point
➤ Make it backward compatible
➤ Protect intellectual property
➤ Will 3G answer the cost issue
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Build Data-Enabled Network
➤ New spectrum allocations
➤ New technology
➤ Should compete with wireline
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What is the Role for 3G
➤ Force data into voice-optimized architecture
➤ Provide limited data capabilities in mobile environment
➤ Compete as wireless local loop alternative
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Broadband Fixed Wireless
➤ Point-to-point (PTP)
➤ Point-to-multipoint (PTM)
There is a Need for Both
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Broadband Technologies
➤ High order modulation
➤ Component integration
➤ Semiconductor process technology
➤ Learning curve economies of scale
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PTP Applications
➤ High capacity spurs off fiber rings
➤ SONET rings
➤ Fiber overlays
➤ PTM backhaul
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PTM Applications
➤ Local loop competition
➤ Broadband data services for business
➤ Internet access
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Credibility From Major Systems Vendors . . .
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. . . But Innovation From Entrepreneurs
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Home Networking
➤ Multi-PC homes
➤ Broadband access
➤ Laptop/mobility
Consumers Can Drive Business Market
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What Are The Wireless Growth Opportunities
➤ Broadband a major growth opportunity
➤ Join the data revolution
➤ “Internet Protocol” not “Intellectual Property”
➤ Get wireless on equal footing with wireline
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