New Scientist - 31 May 2014.bak

FOUR FUTURES FOR SCOTLAND
Israel’s example Scotland has
fewer people – about 5.3 million –
but it already has the start of a
healthy tech scene. In 2006,
Edinburgh had just three
incubators – offices where startups
can rent desk space, network
and hold workshops. Now there
are 17. Glasgow is not far behind.
“It’s a pretty vibrant environment,”
says Danny Helson of Informatics
Ventures, a support network set
up to work with start-ups spun
out from the University of
Edinburgh’s School of Informatics.
The biggest challenge, many
involved agree, is scraping
together the funding to help
companies really take off. What
Scotland needs is for a few homegrown
firms to make it big.
“There is nothing like a couple of
exemplar projects to encourage
“ The biggest challenge is
scraping together the
funding to help companies
really take off”
CHRIS RUBEY/GETTY
venture capitalists,” says Tom
Ogilvie of Edinburgh Research and
Innovation, the commercialisation
arm of the university.
In Israel, trendsetters include
Waze, the traffic app bought by
Google for $1.1 billion last year.
Edinburgh-based Skyscanner,
the flight comparison site, is the
closest to aping that success. Last
year the company’s estimated
value was about $800 million.
Letting private investors
shoulder the risk seems to work.
Government funding kick-started
Israel’s tech scene in the early
1990s, but that has since been
taken over by private industry,
SHETLAND
ISLANDS
says Naomi Krieger Carmy,
director of the UK-Israel Tech Hub
at the British embassy in Tel Aviv.
“The government was able to
assume some of the risk, but to a
large degree it left the reward to
the entrepreneurs,” she says.
To emulate this, some want
an independent Scotland to scrap
Scottish Enterprise, the main
provider of public-sector money
to Scottish firms. Without this
investment competition from the
public sector, the thinking goes,
entrepreneurs might be keener to
invest in Scottish start-ups. Israel’s
example also highlights the
economic importance of aligning
research with industry. Nearly
80 per cent of research in Israel is
done by businesses; in Scotland
Wind will power
the figure is closer to 35 per cent.
In the meantime, there are
Scotland’s
other things Scotland could do to
imitate Israel, such as strengthen green ambitions
connections with the US and
Canada, says Jamie Coleman,
SCOTLAND is arguably one of the
managing director of Codebase, greenest countries in Europe. It
a tech incubator in Edinburgh. produces 40 per cent of Scottish
Codebase occupies the top
electricity demand from renewable
floors of an otherwise empty
sources, and models suggest this
government building and has could rise to 67 per cent by 2018.
plans to extend downwards. By That’s closing in on the government’s
the end of the year, it wants to be goal of producing enough green
the biggest incubator in Europe. power to supply the equivalent of
If Scotland can mature into a all of Scottish demand by 2020.
start-up nation, the benefits could Some fear that independence
be huge. “If you can get global means this goal will be too expensive
companies established then that for Scotland because offshore wind is
leads to economic development expensive. “It’s silly to say it’s going to
for Scotland,” says Helson. ■
be expensive,” says David Toke of the
University of Aberdeen, “when in fact
it can be done pretty cheaply onshore.”
Toke and his colleagues published
estimates last year suggesting that
independence would ruin Scotland’s
chances of hitting its green goal. But
later that year the team made a U-turn:
they now say that it will be cheaper
for Scotland to pursue its 2020 target
as an independent nation.
What changed Newly announced
nuclear power stations will need
funding in the UK and new financial
policies heavily favour nuclear over
–Edinburgh, start-up central– wind power. So it now makes more
Scotland is packed with onshore
wind farms and power companies
have ambitious plans to build more
Installed/operating
Application made
Site under consideration
14.8 TWh
Total renewable
generation 2012
8.3 TWh
Onshore wind
generation 2012
*Terawatt-hours
Estimated onshore wind
generation 2018
17.5 TWh*
sense for a green Scottish consumer
to vote for independence, says Toke.
Electricity bills will still go up – by about
7 per cent, he claims – and this will pay
for onshore wind power. In the UK,
bills would rise by 8 to 10 per cent to
pay for new nuclear, Toke says.
An independent Scotland will need
a close electrical alliance with England
and Wales. A power-sharing market
that allows all those involved to
navigate the peaks and troughs of
supply and demand is a tricky business.
This balancing act is particularly tough
when fickle renewables are involved,
but there is a precedent in Scandinavia.
Nord Pool is a power-sharing market on
a grid that runs largely on renewables.
Accordingly, the incumbent Scottish
National Party (SNP) has proposed an
“energy partnership” with the UK.
Don’t be fooled by all this green
ambition – Scotland won’t be kicking
the oil habit. Its target is to produce
the equivalent of 100 per cent of
Scottish demand with renewables,
but the country will remain a big
energy exporter. The excess will come
largely from its traditional fossil fuel
and nuclear power resources.
But the SNP says emphasis will be
placed on developing carbon dioxide
capture and storage for its fossil fuel
power stations. It’s not easy being
green, but independence might make
it a little easier. Catherine Brahic ■
SOURCE: SCOTTISH NATURAL HERITAGE
14 | NewScientist | 31 May 2014