Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...

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Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...

Changing Tree Species

in the West Kootenays

Resilience and Climate Change: Adaptation Potential for Ecological Systems and

Forest Management in the West Kootenays Managers Workshop

Nelson, BC May 18, 2011

www.kootenayresilience.org

Greg Utzig, PAg

Kutenai Nature

Investigations Ltd.


Climate Information Sources

• Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) - U

of Victoria

q

Trevor Murdoch - Climate Scientist

• Climate Western North America (ClimateWNA)

MoFLPR, UBC Forestry, U of A - Edmonton

q

q

Dave Spittlehouse - Climate Scientist

Dave Roberts, Laura Gray and Andeas Hamann

• Climate Impacts Group (CIG) U of WA

• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

2


Tree Species Climate Envelopes

Species distribution and frequency

based on forest cover mapping and

ecosystem units

• Shifts based on ecosystem units and

Random Forest classification

• 18 GCM/ scenario combinations

• Degree of agreement between GCM/

scenario combinations used as an

indicator of uncertainty

3


Bioclimatic Envelopes and Climate Change

climate variable 2

climate variable 1

Fundamental Niche

Potential climatic amplitude of a given

species may not be fully occupied at

any given time

Realized Niche

Actual climatic amplitude occupied by a

given species at one point in time

reduced from the fundamental niche by

competition, soil conditions, pests,

disturbance regimes and other factors

In the following slides, current mapping

shows realized niches based on recent

forest cover mapping. Future locations

show potential spatial shifts in realized

niches based on projected climate changes

- they do not take into account potential

changes in factors other than climate.

Adapted from: Laura Gray 2010

4


Habitat projections for Douglas-fir

Current

Average

Frequency

Adapted from:

L. Gray and

A. Hamann 2010

Average

Frequency

2020s

Model

Agreement

For the left two maps

use the frequency

legend; for the right

map the presence

/absence legend. Red

indicates all GCM

combinations project

Douglas-fir absence;

blue indicates they

all project presence,

but may differ with

regard to frequency.

Left map shows average frequency of Douglas-fir based on forest cover and ecosystem mapping; middle map

shows projected shifts in climate envelopes and associated frequencies for the 2020s, averaged from the 18

GCM/ scenario combinations; the right map shows the degree of agreement between the GCM combinations

regarding presence and absence of Douglas-fir (a general indication of uncertainty). Original maps were

completed for W. North America, the following maps focus on the West Kootenays.

5


Habitat projections for Douglas-fir

2020s

Current

6

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Douglas-fir

2050s

Current

7

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Douglas-fir

2080s

Current

8

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

Current

2020s

9

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

Current

2050s

10

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Ponderosa Pine

Current

2080s

11

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Hemlock

Current

2020s

12

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Hemlock

Current

2050s

13

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Hemlock

Current

2080s

14

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Larch

Current

2020s

15

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Larch

Current

2050s

16

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Larch

Current

2080s

17

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Geographic and Elevation Shifts

Canadian Rocky Mountains

Species

Average Projected Shift

[Distance (km) /Direction/ Elevation (m) ]

2020s 2050s 2080s

Douglas-fir 166 / N / 79 309 / NNW / 161 449 / NNE / 213

Western Redcedar 141 /NNW /106 250 / NW / 218 382 / N / 252

Western Larch 104 / N / 133 254 / NNE / 177 345 / NNE / 243

From: Laura Gray 2010

18


Local Population Shifts – Western Larch

Projections for the

1961-90 normals

(training data)

1961-1990 1997-2006

From:

Laura Gray 2010

Projections for the

1997-2006 average

(observed climate change)

19


Local Population Shifts – Western Larch

1961-1990 2050s

Projections for the

1961-90 normals

(training data)

From:

Laura Gray 2010

Consensus projections

for the 2050s based on

18 GCM/ scenarios

20


Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce

Current

2020s

21

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce

Current

2050s

22

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce

Current

2080s

23

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Redcedar

Current

2020s

24

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Redcedar

Current

2050s

25

From:

Laura Gray 2010


Habitat projections for Western Redcedar

Current

2080s

26

From:

Laura Gray 2010


www.kootenayresilience.org

Thank You

"We are now faced with the fact that tomorrow is today.

We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now……….

Over the bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous

civilizations are written the pathetic words: 'Too late.’”

Martin Luther King, Jr.

27

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