Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...
Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...
Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...
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<strong>Chang<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Tree</strong> <strong>Species</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> <strong>Kootenays</strong><br />
Resilience and Climate Change: Adaptation Potential for Ecological Systems and<br />
Forest Management <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> <strong>Kootenays</strong> Managers Workshop<br />
Nelson, BC May 18, 2011<br />
www.kootenayresilience.org<br />
Greg Utzig, PAg<br />
Kutenai Nature<br />
Investigations Ltd.
Climate Information Sources<br />
• Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) - U<br />
of Victoria<br />
q<br />
Trevor Murdoch - Climate Scientist<br />
• Climate <strong>West</strong>ern North America (ClimateWNA) <br />
MoFLPR, UBC Forestry, U of A - Edmonton<br />
q<br />
q<br />
Dave Spittlehouse - Climate Scientist<br />
Dave Roberts, Laura Gray and Andeas Hamann<br />
• Climate Impacts Group (CIG) U of WA<br />
• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<br />
2
<strong>Tree</strong> <strong>Species</strong> Climate Envelopes<br />
• <strong>Species</strong> distribution and frequency<br />
based on forest cover mapp<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
ecosystem units<br />
• Shifts based on ecosystem units and<br />
Random Forest classification<br />
• 18 GCM/ scenario comb<strong>in</strong>ations<br />
• Degree of agreement between GCM/<br />
scenario comb<strong>in</strong>ations used as an<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicator of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty<br />
3
Bioclimatic Envelopes and Climate Change<br />
climate variable 2<br />
climate variable 1<br />
Fundamental Niche<br />
Potential climatic amplitude of a given<br />
species may not be fully occupied at<br />
any given time<br />
Realized Niche<br />
Actual climatic amplitude occupied by a<br />
given species at one po<strong>in</strong>t <strong>in</strong> time <br />
reduced from <strong>the</strong> fundamental niche by<br />
competition, soil conditions, pests,<br />
disturbance regimes and o<strong>the</strong>r factors<br />
In <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g slides, current mapp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
shows realized niches based on recent<br />
forest cover mapp<strong>in</strong>g. Future locations<br />
show potential spatial shifts <strong>in</strong> realized<br />
niches based on projected climate changes<br />
- <strong>the</strong>y do not take <strong>in</strong>to account potential<br />
changes <strong>in</strong> factors o<strong>the</strong>r than climate.<br />
Adapted from: Laura Gray 2010<br />
4
Habitat projections for Douglas-fir<br />
Current<br />
Average<br />
Frequency<br />
Adapted from:<br />
L. Gray and<br />
A. Hamann 2010<br />
Average<br />
Frequency<br />
2020s<br />
Model<br />
Agreement<br />
For <strong>the</strong> left two maps<br />
use <strong>the</strong> frequency<br />
legend; for <strong>the</strong> right<br />
map <strong>the</strong> presence<br />
/absence legend. Red<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicates all GCM<br />
comb<strong>in</strong>ations project<br />
Douglas-fir absence;<br />
blue <strong>in</strong>dicates <strong>the</strong>y<br />
all project presence,<br />
but may differ with<br />
regard to frequency.<br />
Left map shows average frequency of Douglas-fir based on forest cover and ecosystem mapp<strong>in</strong>g; middle map<br />
shows projected shifts <strong>in</strong> climate envelopes and associated frequencies for <strong>the</strong> 2020s, averaged from <strong>the</strong> 18<br />
GCM/ scenario comb<strong>in</strong>ations; <strong>the</strong> right map shows <strong>the</strong> degree of agreement between <strong>the</strong> GCM comb<strong>in</strong>ations<br />
regard<strong>in</strong>g presence and absence of Douglas-fir (a general <strong>in</strong>dication of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty). Orig<strong>in</strong>al maps were<br />
completed for W. North America, <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g maps focus on <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> <strong>Kootenays</strong>.<br />
5
Habitat projections for Douglas-fir<br />
2020s<br />
Current<br />
6<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Douglas-fir<br />
2050s<br />
Current<br />
7<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Douglas-fir<br />
2080s<br />
Current<br />
8<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Ponderosa P<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Current<br />
2020s<br />
9<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Ponderosa P<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Current<br />
2050s<br />
10<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Ponderosa P<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Current<br />
2080s<br />
11<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Hemlock<br />
Current<br />
2020s<br />
12<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Hemlock<br />
Current<br />
2050s<br />
13<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Hemlock<br />
Current<br />
2080s<br />
14<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Larch<br />
Current<br />
2020s<br />
15<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Larch<br />
Current<br />
2050s<br />
16<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Larch<br />
Current<br />
2080s<br />
17<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Geographic and Elevation Shifts<br />
Canadian Rocky Mounta<strong>in</strong>s<br />
<strong>Species</strong><br />
Average Projected Shift<br />
[Distance (km) /Direction/ Elevation (m) ]<br />
2020s 2050s 2080s<br />
Douglas-fir 166 / N / 79 309 / NNW / 161 449 / NNE / 213<br />
<strong>West</strong>ern Redcedar 141 /NNW /106 250 / NW / 218 382 / N / 252<br />
<strong>West</strong>ern Larch 104 / N / 133 254 / NNE / 177 345 / NNE / 243<br />
From: Laura Gray 2010<br />
18
Local Population Shifts – <strong>West</strong>ern Larch<br />
Projections for <strong>the</strong><br />
1961-90 normals<br />
(tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g data)<br />
1961-1990 1997-2006<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010<br />
Projections for <strong>the</strong><br />
1997-2006 average<br />
(observed climate change)<br />
19
Local Population Shifts – <strong>West</strong>ern Larch<br />
1961-1990 2050s<br />
Projections for <strong>the</strong><br />
1961-90 normals<br />
(tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g data)<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010<br />
Consensus projections<br />
for <strong>the</strong> 2050s based on<br />
18 GCM/ scenarios<br />
20
Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce<br />
Current<br />
2020s<br />
21<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce<br />
Current<br />
2050s<br />
22<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for Engelmann Spruce<br />
Current<br />
2080s<br />
23<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Redcedar<br />
Current<br />
2020s<br />
24<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Redcedar<br />
Current<br />
2050s<br />
25<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
Habitat projections for <strong>West</strong>ern Redcedar<br />
Current<br />
2080s<br />
26<br />
From:<br />
Laura Gray 2010
www.kootenayresilience.org<br />
Thank You<br />
"We are now faced with <strong>the</strong> fact that tomorrow is today.<br />
We are confronted with <strong>the</strong> fierce urgency of now……….<br />
Over <strong>the</strong> bleached bones and jumbled residue of numerous<br />
civilizations are written <strong>the</strong> pa<strong>the</strong>tic words: 'Too late.’”<br />
Mart<strong>in</strong> Lu<strong>the</strong>r K<strong>in</strong>g, Jr.<br />
27
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