Paper - Initiative for Policy Dialogue

10
GDPGrowthRegionalComparision
9.00%
8.00%
7.49%
8.17%
7.33%
GDPGrowthRate(%)
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
2.94%
4.63%
3.52%
2.50%
5.45%
5.89%
3.88%
2.50% 2.55%
1.00%
0.00%
19602006 19802006 19952006
SubSaharanAfrica EastAsia&Pacific SouthAsia LatinAmerica&Caribbean
III. Global Experience: The Cases and Ingredients of Success
Africa’s poor performance is especially disturbing when seen in a global perspective.
The period of African stagnation corresponded to a period of rapid growth in East Asia.
The causes of that growth have been the subject of extensive discussion, including an
important study by the World Bank itself, The East Asian Miracle.
A more recent study, the Growth or Spence Commission (as it is often referred to and
what we label as GSC) has revisited the issues on a global scale and seeks to extract
policy lessons from the experience of 13 countries which achieved annual growth rates of
7% or more for at least 25 years. 9
The countries and their periods of sustained growth at the rates that GSC concerns
itself with are as follows: Botswana 1960-2005; Brazil 1950-80; China 1961-2005;
Hong Kong 1960-97; Indonesia 1966-97; Malaysia 1967-97; Japan 1950-83; S. Korea
9 Whilst GSC devotes a chapter to country contexts in which it looks at the implications of its analysis
for Sub-Saharan Africa; small economies and those rich in natural resources; it does so in a rather broad
brush manner (e.g. only 7 pages on Africa) especially in comparison with its carefully detailed and nuanced
general discussion of growth issues. The Report does not aim to fully engage directly with the growth
debate in Africa, for example on the role of geography it simply notes that many countries are landlocked
with a muted suggestion that that is part of the reason for Africa’s disappointing growth performance but
does not examine the issue in any detail (we examine this issue later). This reflects the fact that its focus is
broad, ambitious and general or at any rate considerably more so than that of the Africa Task Force. The
Commission’s report is mindful of the dangers of excessive or excessively rapid capital account
liberalization but does not pay much attention to other aspects of the financial sector (e.g. domestic
financial restraint; directed credit or the role of DFIs).