SE-ASIA-opium-poppy-2014-web

Regional Overview
Figure 7: Estimated area under opium poppy cultivation in Lao PDR (Hectares), 1992‐2014
30,000
26,800
25,000
21,600
20,000
19,200
19,100
17,300
15,000
10,000
5,000
14,000
12,000
6,600
1,800 2,500 1,500 1,600 1,900
3,000 4,100 6,800
3,900
6,200
0
1992
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
Hectares
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Cultivation
95% confidence interval
Sources: 1990‐1991, 1993‐1995: US Department of State; 1992, 1996‐1999: UNODC; since 2000: National Illicit
Crop Monitoring System supported by UNODC.
Risk area and survey approach
The risk area describes the geographical area considered in the area survey. It is defined based
upon reports from the field on poppy cultivation, as well as results from previous surveys. The
sampling frame is the set of all 5 km x 5 km segments that can be chosen randomly for obtaining
satellite imagery. For this purpose a 5 km x 5 km regular grid is superimposed on the risk area.
In 2014, the estimated area under opium poppy cultivation in Lao PDR was calculated based on a
sampling frame that included potential areas for opium poppy cultivation in Bokeo, Houaphan,
Louang Namtha, Louangphrabang, Oudomxai, Phongsali, Xiangkhoang and the northern part of
Xaignabouri. Taking into account the results of previous surveys as well as information from the
Government and UNODC projects, it can be assumed that opium poppy cultivation outside this
risk area was negligible. The results presented here therefore only refer to this risk area and do
not include potential poppy cultivation outside its limits.
The area under cultivation was estimated/surveyed in two ways. Firstly, a sampling approach was
used in which 70 segments each measuring 5 km x 5 km, spread around the risk areas in the eight
provinces, were selected. Secondly, due to its high concentration of poppy cultivation, one
particular area in Phongsali was analysed separately from the rest of the survey area and was
fully covered using a census approach to allow for full mapping and precise estimation of the
area under cultivation. This Phongsali “hotspot” was fully covered with 19 satellite images
measuring 5 km x 5 km, which were not part of the sampling frame, and the sampled areas in all
the poppy‐growing provinces were visited by helicopter and analysed with very detailed satellite
images. Additional GPS data and photographs were taken as ground truth data for the posterior
satellite image interpretations.
Opium poppy fields were found in 24 of the 70 randomly targeted segments, whereas 18 of the
19 segments in the Phongsali hotspot contained opium poppy.
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