DGMT COC Recommendations ... - The DG Murray Trust
DGMT COC Recommendations ... - The DG Murray Trust
DGMT COC Recommendations ... - The DG Murray Trust
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Presented to: David Harrison, CEO: <strong>DG</strong> <strong>Murray</strong> <strong>Trust</strong> , Date: 12 March 2013<br />
<strong>DG</strong> <strong>Murray</strong> <strong>Trust</strong><br />
<strong>Recommendations</strong><br />
Report<br />
Reducing the Cost of<br />
Communications in South Africa: An<br />
Ecosystem Perspective<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee
Contents Page<br />
1. Abstract ................................................................................................................................<br />
4<br />
2. Executive Summary ................................................................................................<br />
....................................................... 5<br />
3. Research Background and Results ................................................................................................<br />
8<br />
3.1. Research Drivers ................................................................................................<br />
....................................................... 8<br />
3.2. Research Approach ................................................................................................<br />
9<br />
3.3. Research Context ................................................................................................<br />
......................................................11<br />
3.4. Research Results ................................................................................................<br />
......................................................12<br />
4. Industry Ecosystems ................................................................................................<br />
......................................................13<br />
5. Industry Models Overview ................................................................................................<br />
...............................................15<br />
6. Industry Stakeholders Collaboration ................................................................................................<br />
.....................................16<br />
7. Technology Research Background ................................................................................................<br />
.......................................16<br />
7.1. Current and Future Trends ................................................................................................<br />
............................................16<br />
7.2. Developing Economy Adoption Curve ..............................................................................................<br />
..............................21<br />
7.3. Digital Divide ................................................................................................<br />
.........................................................22<br />
7.4. Painting the picture within South Africa: ................................................................<br />
............................................................24<br />
8. Technical Solution Strategy Overview ................................................................................................<br />
..................................25<br />
9. Technology Matrix................................<br />
................................................................................................<br />
........................................................26<br />
9.1. TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS ................................................................................................<br />
.....................................27<br />
10. Key <strong>Recommendations</strong> ................................................................................................<br />
...................................................35<br />
11. Further Work ..............................................................................................................................<br />
..............................36<br />
12. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................<br />
................................39<br />
13. Glossary ................................................................................................................................<br />
...................................41<br />
14. Appendices ................................................................................................................................<br />
................................42<br />
Appendix 1 – Industry Contact List ................................................................................................<br />
..............................................42<br />
Appendix 2 – Stakeholders Interviewed ................................................................................................<br />
..........................................42<br />
Appendix 3 – Research References ................................................................................................<br />
...............................................42<br />
Appendix 4 – External Web References................................<br />
................................................................................................<br />
..........................................43<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
List of Figures<br />
Figure 1: Ecosystem View ................................................................................................<br />
...................................................... 6<br />
Figure 2: Collaboration Activity View ................................................................................................<br />
8<br />
Figure 3: Objectives Concept Map ................................................................................................<br />
9<br />
Figure 4: Research Approach ................................................................................................<br />
10<br />
Figure 5: BoP/RoP Mobile Usage (Worldbank Report: Mobile Usage at the Base of the Pyramid in<br />
South Africa) ................................................................................................................................<br />
11<br />
Figure 6: Results and <strong>Recommendations</strong> Context ................................................................<br />
12<br />
Figure 7: Research Results Snapshot ................................................................................................<br />
13<br />
Figure 8: Ecosystem Analysis ................................................................................................<br />
14<br />
Figure 9: Expanded Ecosystem analysis ...............................................................................................<br />
15<br />
Figure 10: Operational Ecosystem Model ................................................................<br />
............................................................ 16<br />
Figure 11:Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2012 ................................................................<br />
17<br />
Figure 12: Technology Diffusion Curve ...............................................................................................<br />
18<br />
Figure 13:Value innovation versus technology Innovation ................................................................<br />
19<br />
Figure 14: Segmentation of market drivers for reduction in access costs. ............................................ 19<br />
Figure 15:Internet usage in South Africa ..............................................................................................<br />
20<br />
Figure 16: Growth Trends of Data ................................................................................................<br />
21<br />
Figure 17: Mobile Broadband Growth in Africa ................................................................<br />
22<br />
Figure 18: Mobile Social Network status for those who have access ................................................... 23<br />
Figure 19: BoP/RoP Divide ................................................................................................<br />
23<br />
Figure 20: Broadband in South Africa ................................................................................................<br />
24<br />
Figure 21: Broadband Penetration at SA public facilities ................................................................<br />
24<br />
Figure 22: Solutions Cost-Benefit-Effect-Complexity Positioning Model ........................................... 25<br />
Figure 23: Solutions Matrix cluster ................................................................................................<br />
26<br />
Figure 24: High Level Cost Model ................................................................................................<br />
26<br />
Figure 25: NPO Aggregator ISP ................................................................................................<br />
27<br />
Figure 26: Social Service Communications Compliance model ........................................................... 28<br />
Figure 27: NPO WASP Model ................................................................................................<br />
29<br />
Figure 28: Zero Rated/Reverse Billed Mobile APP APN model .......................................................... 30<br />
Figure 29: Informal retail broadband model ................................................................<br />
......................................................... 31<br />
Figure 30: MVNO model ................................................................................................<br />
...................................................... 31<br />
Figure 31: Solar Wireless Router ................................................................................................<br />
32<br />
Figure 32:Wimax Implementation Environment ................................................................<br />
33<br />
Figure 33:Mini Satellite Earth Station model ................................................................<br />
....................................................... 34<br />
Figure 34: Generic Evolving Model Operating Structure ................................................................<br />
34<br />
Figure 35: Key Solutions and Barriers ................................................................................................<br />
36<br />
Figure 36: Open Access MNO ................................................................................................<br />
39<br />
Figure 37: Solutions Roadmap ................................................................................................<br />
40<br />
List of Tables<br />
Table 1: Change Drivers and Restrainer Results ................................................................<br />
7<br />
Table 2: Solution Context ................................................................................................<br />
14<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
1. Abstract<br />
Developing nations globally realise that promoting access to communications, and lowering their<br />
costs, serves as a catalyst for economic growth and social upliftment.<br />
One of the core components required in any healthy Telecommunications industry is Appropriate<br />
Governance that promotes market competition (i.e. Policy, Legislation & Regulation) whilst at the<br />
same time aligning the telecommunications industry to serve national interests and the needs of the<br />
countries citizens. Another important factor is the development of a robust Network Infrastructure<br />
for national, regional, and local connectivity involving things such as; GSM, Microwave, WIMAX and<br />
Satellite Base Stations for OTA i.e. Over the Air communications, Long Distance Fibre for National<br />
Connectivity, Metro Ethernet and Fibre for what is termed “Last Mile” in terms of regional<br />
connectivity. <strong>The</strong> final leg to a healthy Telecommunications industry involves delivering the<br />
communications services to the end user via effective localised Communications Infrastructure<br />
which uses Technology such as Wi-fi Mesh’s, 3G Broadband Routers, ADSL Routers and GSM<br />
Handsets in order to deliver Voice, Texting, and Rich Multimedia Services such as Video and Audio to<br />
end user devices. Value Added Services such as Mobile Applications, USSD, IVR and Interactive Web<br />
Applications are also delivered and enabled through the Network and Communications<br />
Infrastructure.<br />
<strong>The</strong>re are many conversations and initiatives abound in South Africa related to “Reducing the Cost<br />
of Communications”. . Some of these are “upstream” conversations which revolve around creating a<br />
Policy and Regulatory Environment that Promotes cost reduction through encouraging a more<br />
competitive environment, or the introduction of improved national and international connectivity<br />
such as Cables, Satellite and Fibre Connectivity, and industry specific initiatives such as lowering the<br />
Mobile Operator interconnect rates.<br />
<strong>The</strong> “downstream” conversations and initiatives revolve around the Development of<br />
Communications Infrastructure such as Wireless Mesh’s or WIMAX Networks within Rural and<br />
Underserviced areas for people classified as “Base of the Pyramid” in order to promote access to<br />
communications, or for the delivery of limited connectivity to small groups of people for a limited<br />
social upliftment purpose such wireless connectivity to select schools s and clinics. <strong>The</strong>re is also a fair<br />
amount of downstream activity happening in delivering and attempting to enable Value Added<br />
Services such as free access to Google, Facebook and Wikipedia on Mobile, specialised competitive<br />
“Tariffing” by the MNO’s such as unlimited on-net net calls and Closed User Groups (CUG) Call plans, and<br />
other services such as educational, career and health related mobile applications, mobile websites,<br />
and mobile data services.<br />
Despite these initiatives, and the fact that the Telecommunications industry in South Africa’s<br />
infrastructure ranks as 13th in the world, the cost of communication in SA ranks as one of the<br />
highest globally. SA ranks 30 th in Africa, Mobile prices are cheaper in over 30 African countries than<br />
they are in South Africa with prices in Kenya, Mauritius, Egypt and Namibia only a fraction of the<br />
price of even the lowest priced services in South Africa. South African prepaid mobile prices are three<br />
times more expensive than in Namibia. (Source: Research ICT Africa - 2012, Policy Brief No. 1, A<br />
Gilwald et al).<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
This report provides recommendations to reduce the cost of communication in South Africa through<br />
an exploration of the various ecosystems involved in the Telecommunications Industry. <strong>The</strong> report is<br />
based upon market research with various policy, business, research, infrastructure and other<br />
industry stakeholders, and will provide the reader with insights into the various technical, policy,<br />
regulatory, research and commercial interventions that could reduce the costs of communications in<br />
SA.<br />
2. Executive Summary<br />
South Africa’s Telecommunications Industry is made up of plethora of participants, all of which have<br />
a vested interest of a different kind within the industry. <strong>The</strong>re are various contradictions and<br />
tensions within the stakeholder groups, and between stakeholder groups in terms of their interests,<br />
focus areas, and objectives.<br />
According to the “Cost of Communication in SA” Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio<br />
Committee on Communications Public Hearing Cape Town, 29 November 2012, the following are the<br />
statistics of the local market;<br />
• Total connections in South Africa, the country has a 138% mobile penetration (operator<br />
supply side information). ion). When looking at individual subscribers, the figure is at 66% of the<br />
population. (GSMA 2012)<br />
• RIA 2011 and Census closer to 85%<br />
• 15% duplicate SIMs (RIA 2011)<br />
• Inhibiting factor for those without services is price<br />
• Price is an inhibiting factor in limiting usage<br />
• 8% of income at national but bottom of pyramid closer to 18%<br />
• Substitution for Mobile;<br />
o 1.0 - Voice fixed to mobile;<br />
o 2.0 - voice to text SMS, Mxit<br />
o 3.0 - Text to data - social networking platforms<br />
<strong>The</strong> market research conducted has indicated that the current and present technologies,<br />
infrastructure, and industry value chain are more than adequate in order to realise a reduction in the<br />
cost of communications. ns. <strong>The</strong> proposed interventions discussed herein are realistic and achievable,<br />
and able to deliver measureable socio-economic value. In saying this, it is important to note that<br />
this objective to date has not been achieved as a result of the various contradictory objectives, and<br />
tensions, between industry participants. <strong>The</strong>re are not only tensions within stakeholder interests<br />
and objectives different industry ecosystem, but within stakeholders of the same ecosystem.<br />
It has been found that in order to execute any solution effectively, different Ecosystem participants<br />
need to come together in different capacities. <strong>The</strong> Ecosystems being referred to can be seen in<br />
Figure 1 below, and some conflicts that exist within them are described further;<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Consumer<br />
Ecosystem<br />
Industry<br />
Participants<br />
Ecosystem<br />
Solutions for<br />
Reducing the<br />
Cost of<br />
Communications<br />
in SA<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Ecosystem<br />
Technology<br />
and<br />
Innovation<br />
Ecosystem<br />
Regulatory<br />
Ecosystem<br />
Figure 1: Ecosystem View<br />
• Consumer Ecosystem i.e.(Rural, Urban, Bottom/Roof of Pyramid etc)<br />
o Choosing consumers to serve in terms of maximum profitability/social benefit<br />
o Applying limited funding and resources effectively<br />
o Multitude of Social objectives to pursue eg. Education, Health etc<br />
o<br />
Developing VAS Services as Opposed to Network Connectivity Services<br />
o<br />
Enhancing and Developing Access, Improving QOS, and/or Reducing Costs<br />
• Industry Participants Ecosystem (MNO’s, ISP’s, ECNS etc)<br />
o Risk of non-compliance versus cost of Compliance of CSI Objectives<br />
o<br />
Profitability Objectives versus Corporate Social Investment objectives<br />
o<br />
Business Viability, and Commercial Sustainability<br />
o Trade-off between Disruptive and Profitable Technology and Services<br />
o<br />
Market Dynamics i.e. Competition, Product’s, Barriers etc<br />
• Technology and Innovation Ecosystem (eg. WIMAX, Satellite, GSM, 3G, Wi-Fi, LTE, VAS etc)<br />
o<br />
Availability of Handsets, Devices and CPE (Customer Premises Equipment)<br />
o<br />
Usage of Licensed versus Unlicensed Spectrum<br />
o<br />
Investment in Current or Future Technologies<br />
o<br />
Range and Penetration of Technologies<br />
o<br />
Logistics, Distribution and Management of Networks/Systems and VAS<br />
• Regulatory Ecosystem (ICASA, DTI, DOC, Government and Political)<br />
o<br />
Cost of funding for Market Reviews in order to support change initiatives<br />
o<br />
Compliance Monitoring and Evaluation Skills, Knowledge and Resources<br />
o<br />
Social Upliftment Obligations versus Trade Stimulation Objectives<br />
o<br />
Governmental and Political Influences in licensing allocation<br />
o<br />
Social Delivery Mandate Interpretation and implementation<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
• Infrastructure Ecosystem<br />
o<br />
Integration into existing network versus setting up infrastructure<br />
o<br />
Cost/Benefit of Infrastructure Investment and Syndication of players<br />
o<br />
Complexity and Feasibility of Last mile Implementation<br />
o<br />
Open/Closed Access Network Licensing and regulation<br />
o<br />
Long term Network Maintenance and Sustainability<br />
Our research - after having analysed the various ecosystems through stakeholder interviews, and<br />
high level industry analysis, and market review and research, has identified an overall set of drivers<br />
and restrainers of reducing the cost of communication in SA. After using a constant comparison<br />
method, key drivers and restrainers were identified as listed in the following table;<br />
Table 1: Change Drivers and Restrainer Results<br />
Drivers and Restrainers<br />
ICASA interventions<br />
DOC Policy<br />
Industry Player Willingness<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Technology<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
Funds<br />
Over <strong>The</strong> Top Services<br />
Coordination and leadership<br />
Industry Knowledge and Skills<br />
Research & Information availability<br />
Product Development, Marketing & Distribution<br />
Key Drivers<br />
Co-Ordination and Leadership<br />
Funds<br />
Research & Information availability<br />
Technology<br />
Industry Knowledge and Skills<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Key Restrainers<br />
Funds<br />
Research & Information availability<br />
Industry Knowledge and Skills<br />
As mentioned previously, the technology and infrastructure exists in order to reduce the costs of<br />
communications in SA. <strong>The</strong> research has indicated that irrespective of whichever Technology idea or<br />
intervention is pursued, a common platform that has the funds - and knowledge and skills, to<br />
explore, analyse and pursue infrastructure, technology and commercial projects, and which can<br />
provide government and regulatory authorities with the relevant information, insights and reports<br />
to craft policy and deliver impactful regulations, will be in a position to successfully address the<br />
restrainers that are holding back progress.<br />
<strong>The</strong> research has also thus far established that within the “concerned parties” community of the<br />
Telecommunication industry involving various PBO’s and NPO’s, there is a high level of awareness<br />
and interest in reducing the cost of communication in SA – albeit they hold different views about<br />
how to go about achieving it. A Plethora of initiatives exist ranging from Technological, Regulatory<br />
and Infrastructure, to the delivery of Social Services via Mobile, Satellite and TV Whitespace. This<br />
community displays characteristics of a fragmented front, and our research has also uncovered a<br />
need for strong leadership and co-ordination within the “concerned parties” community.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Whilst similarly concerned parties sometimes work at cross purposes, each one holds different skills<br />
sets and knowledge resources, which if pooled and co-ordinated ordinated could represent a powerful<br />
platform that could give real effect to change, resulting in measures that reduce the cost of<br />
communication in SA.<br />
In order to address this fragmentation, a key and very powerful intervention would be to create a<br />
common platform for the parties to share resources, knowledge, expertise and skills as shown in the<br />
diagram below;<br />
Figure 2: Collaboration Activity View<br />
This report will therefore go on further to explain the various Industry, Technological and Regulatory<br />
solutions and interventions within the context of a collaborative environment.<br />
3. Research Background and Results<br />
3.1. Research Drivers<br />
In South Africa, approximately 50% of the population live below the poverty line (+-R432 pm) with<br />
limited or no access to health, education and social services. Many of these people live in<br />
communities far removed from the opportunities that South Africa offers. To most of them, these<br />
opportunities are out of their grasp. We have come a long way since our 1994 Democracy, and<br />
whilst living conditions may have improved for a great number of people, there are masses of people<br />
who do not enjoy the benefits of this democracy. Whilst each person holds a democratic right to<br />
vote, and can theoretically enjoy equal rights as enshrined within our most progressive constitution,<br />
they are not at liberty to exercise these rights due to huge imbalances of a monumental scale that<br />
impedes their ability to improve their living conditions, and their lives in general.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Central to improving this is access to these opportunities through education, job opportunities,<br />
health services, social services, and social support. One such impediment to social upliftment is the<br />
cost of communication in South Africa.<br />
<strong>The</strong> World Bank has found that in low- and middle-income income countries every 10 percentage point<br />
increase in broadband penetration accelerates economic growth by 1.38 percentage points—more<br />
than in high-income income countries and more than for other telecommunications services (figure 1.1). In a<br />
similar study, McKinsey & Company estimates that “a 10 percent increase in broadband’s household<br />
penetration delivers a boost to a country’s GDP that ranges from 0.1 percent to 1.4 percent”<br />
(Buttkereit and others 2009, 4). Booz & Company.<br />
Figure 3: Objectives Concept Map<br />
3.2. Research Approach<br />
Mobile Communication and Technologies were chosen as the focal point of this research due to<br />
their ubiquitous nature. Mobile Communications, Platforms, and Services are key means of<br />
delivering social services and creating and improving access to opportunities for those who feel most<br />
marginalised in South Africa i.e. “Base of the Pyramid”. <strong>The</strong> solutions focused on in this report will<br />
target this segment of the market because this is where maximum social benefit can be derived<br />
through reduction in the cost of communications.<br />
“More than 75 percent of those 15 years or older in the BoP own a mobile phone, a rate only 14<br />
percent lower than ownership at the RoP. Of those who own a mobile phone, 98.5 percent have a<br />
prepaid SIM card.” (Worldbank Report: Mobile Usage at the Base of the Pyramid in South Africa)<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Key areas of upliftment that is possible via mobile include, health, water & sanitation, education and<br />
the ability of non skilled workers to up-skill, train and earn income.<br />
Mobile mediums also have the ability and potential to deliver the much needed social value that<br />
they are ideally positioned for. This is not occurring despite :<br />
• the highest levels of subscriber penetration amongst all communication mediums<br />
• the ability to cross deep divides between geographic and living standard chasms<br />
• offering a multitude of services and communication possibilities;<br />
all of which can be used as a springboards for social development in a manner that uplifts<br />
communities and people through various initiatives such education, health and employment.<br />
Because of the dynamic nature of the industry and the limited duration within which the research<br />
project was conducted, a constant comparison approach was chosen to ensure maximum relevancy .<br />
Constant Comparison Research Approach<br />
Stakeholder<br />
Interviews,<br />
Market Data<br />
Gathering<br />
• Technology<br />
• Investment<br />
• Willingness<br />
• Regulation<br />
• Commercial<br />
Market & Literature<br />
Review<br />
Market Analysis<br />
Testing <strong>The</strong>ories,<br />
Evaluating Restrainers, and<br />
Formulating<br />
<strong>Recommendations</strong><br />
Figure 4: Research Approach<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
3.3. Research Context<br />
In South Africa presently, there is a plethora of mobile value added services initiatives and platforms<br />
aimed at social upliftment in various forms. <strong>The</strong>se services range from :<br />
• Mobile Websites (Mobisite) that rely on Mobile Data such as 3G and GPRS,<br />
• Mobile Originating (MO) Shortcode SMS Services,<br />
• Mobile Terminating (MT) Bulk SMS Services,<br />
• Mobile Voice Services, and<br />
• Services such as USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) –<br />
all collectively known as “Bearers” because they bear different types of data. <strong>The</strong> level of uptake,<br />
impact of usage, and ultimately the success of these mobile driven social development services to<br />
achieve their social objectives lies in the cost charged by mobile operators to access the Bearers that<br />
these initiatives and platforms rely on. Coupled with the bearers the value added content needs to<br />
be attractive and beneficial. Most services in place, provide for a single one way communication.<br />
Figure 5: BoP/RoP Mobile Usage (Worldbank Report: Mobile Usage at the Base of the Pyramid in South Africa)<br />
Figure 5 above shows usage of mobile in SA, it is interesting to note that despite there been a wide<br />
range of social services accessible via mobile, it becomes clear that although Mobile is an ideal and<br />
effective medium to reach out to and develop underprivileged people of South Africa, its effective<br />
usage for Social Development purposes is impeded by Bearer costs that are too high for those most<br />
in need of accessing the desired services.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Central to these high costs are the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) in South Africa’s pursuit for<br />
consistently higher profits and returns. Whilst the MNOs are readily prepared to reduce the costs of<br />
access to mobile services such as costs of SIM Cards and Mobile Handsets in order to drive the<br />
growth of their market share and services penetration, they are not amenable to reducing the costs<br />
of the actual Bearer services used for communication by the users themselves – unless they are able<br />
to make a higher profit by doing so.<br />
3.4. Research Results<br />
<strong>The</strong> research results are aligned to the recommendations in terms of possible options to reduce the<br />
cost of communications in SA. <strong>The</strong>re are various ecosystem contexts from which to view the<br />
recommendations, these are explained further. <strong>The</strong> main contexts this report and its<br />
recommendations deals with are;<br />
a) Technology Context<br />
b) Regulatory Context, and<br />
c) Industry Context<br />
Figure 6: Results and <strong>Recommendations</strong> Context<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
What follows is a high level view of the various recommendations which will be detailed later on in<br />
this document;<br />
Industry<br />
- Non Profit/Advertising Driven MVNO/MVNE<br />
-Non Profit GSM MNO<br />
-Non Profit WASP<br />
-Reverse Billed Mobile Application<br />
-Bundle Carry Over Minutes/Texts Donation Service<br />
-Community Connectivity Solution eg. Satellite, 3G<br />
Regulatory<br />
ICASA<br />
- Regulation for NPO Services Costs<br />
- ECNS License Application<br />
- NPO Interconnect Rate Regulation<br />
-Consumer Protection Regulation<br />
-Open Access Network Regulation<br />
DOC<br />
- Social Services GSM Spectrum<br />
- Open Access Network Policy Directive<br />
-Monitoring and Compliance Directive<br />
Technology<br />
Wi-Fi Community Mesh<br />
Fibre/Microwave Backhaul<br />
Free Social Service Apps<br />
Social Services Register<br />
MVNO/MVNE/MNO<br />
Consumer VAS Solutions<br />
Research Results Snapshot<br />
Figure 7: Research Results Snapshot<br />
Figure 7 shows various solutions that were explored within the different contexts, this will be<br />
detailed further in this report.<br />
4. Industry Ecosystems<br />
Within the Telecommunications industry, there appears to be 5 distinct ecosystems which drive or<br />
restrain change – none of which do so in isolation of the other. In order for true disruption to occur,<br />
a collaboration of various ecosystems are required.<br />
<strong>The</strong> 5 Industry Ecosystems are;<br />
- Technology and Innovation<br />
- Regulatory<br />
- Infrastructure<br />
- Industry Players<br />
- Customer<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Figure 8: Ecosystem Analysis<br />
<strong>The</strong> diagram above displays the key players within the ecosystems, and the level of overlap between<br />
them that is required in order to deliver a solution;<br />
Table 2: Solution Context<br />
Solution Domain<br />
Industry Solutions<br />
Access/Infrastructure Solutions<br />
Regulatory Solutions<br />
Impacting Ecosystems<br />
Consumer, Technology and Innovation, and Industry Player<br />
Infrastructure Ecosystem<br />
Regulatory Ecosystem<br />
It is important to note that different solutions proposed herein is driven from, resides within,<br />
disrupts, supports, or collaborates with various ecosystem participants in order to be executed<br />
successfully. A dynamic capabilities approach needs to be taken by any organisation wishing to<br />
pursue any of the solutions recommended herein.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
5. Industry Models Overview<br />
In terms of the various industry ecosystems, the following operating models exist;<br />
• MNO – Mobile Network Operator eg. MTN, Vodacom, Cell C, 8ta<br />
• MVNO/E – Mobile Virtual Network Operator/Enabler eg. Virgin Mobile, Hello World etc<br />
• ECNS – Electronic Communication Network Supplier eg. MWEB, Vox, DiData etc<br />
• WASP/WDP – Wireless Application Service Provider/Data Provider eg. Integrat, AAT etc<br />
• VAS – Value Added Service eg. MXIT, Cell –Life etc<br />
A combination of these models can give effect to reducing the cost of communications in SA. <strong>The</strong>y<br />
however require elements from different ecosystems to a different extent in order to enable the<br />
solutions proposed herein.<br />
Figure 8 below shows 5 Core elements affecting the cost of communications on the outer rim, with a<br />
further 12 elements that drive and or restrain cost reduction initiatives. It aims to display that any<br />
solution to reduce cost is driven and/or restrained by one or more of the 12 areas within the inner<br />
rim, which could be further driven and/or restrained further by the 5 core Ecosystems within the<br />
outer rim.<br />
Figure 9: Expanded Ecosystem analysis<br />
An appreciation for this dynamic, and forward planning for the associated complexities could make<br />
new initiatives, and many of the present initiatives a lot more successful in reducing the cost of<br />
communications.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
6. Industry Stakeholders Collaboration<br />
Due to the high level of complexity involved in reducing the cost of communication in SA, and<br />
despite there being very feasible technology solutions, and effective fective intervention strategies, the<br />
cost reductions have not happened. It is clear that for any solution to work, there needs to be a<br />
collaborative operating model in place that can deal with the complexity that the challenge<br />
presents.<br />
Figure 11 below depicts an ideal operationally collaborative model that deals with this<br />
complexity;<br />
Figure 10: Operational Ecosystem Model<br />
7. Technology Research Background<br />
7.1. Current and Future Trends<br />
Mobile operators started gaining their revenue from voice taffic. <strong>The</strong>reafter interconnect<br />
and roaming voice traffic became new key revenue generators. Historically, mobile<br />
operators have been using the Value Added Services (VAS) channel to increase their access<br />
into the market and thus creating additional revenue streams. <strong>The</strong> complacency with high<br />
revenues and high EBITDA targets from the shareholders forced operators to hold onto their<br />
rates, and aim for consistently higher margins.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Subsequently once GPRS and data was introduced, the opportunity for new applications and<br />
alternate and low cost voice mediums (VOIP) surfaced. This posed and still poses a threat to<br />
operators, however a non-adoption of data technologies meant a dwindling subscriber base.<br />
In trying to grow data streams, a compromise needed to be reached and hence the<br />
introduction of WASPS to help facilitate the growth. Data caught on fast and the build of<br />
applications upon this layer was an inflection ion point for driving new technology trends.<br />
Within the operator old technologies are still key and rates will only drop when there is a<br />
drastic drop in revenue from the particular bearer. Hence as long as there is a need and<br />
purpose, tariffs and rates will take a longer time to be reduced. Thus there has to always be<br />
a driver, either a new regulation, a disruptive technology or some key factor that will force a<br />
change in lower costs of communications.<br />
<strong>The</strong> current and future technology trends as depicited by the Gartner Hype Cycle is a<br />
reflection of the ability of technology to evolve but not necessarily drive the cost of access to<br />
data and information to be reduced.<br />
Figure 11:Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2012<br />
From a subscriber’s perspective, a subscriber would ideally like to have everything for free.<br />
To understand this thought, one can compare accessing information via a radio. All that a<br />
subscriber does is buy radio. By tuning his radio he can access news, music, various audio<br />
content, jokes etc. He does not pay a subscription or a fee or is bound by any contract.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
It does not matter what new radio he buys, he can still access the same content for free –<br />
the only difference being is if he has state of the art radio he can record music and radio<br />
shows for later playback. <strong>The</strong> question then arises, why can’t the same model be applied to<br />
accessing the internet <strong>The</strong> answer to this is business profit. As long as there is a business<br />
profit margin required year-on-year, year, access to data cannot be made free.<br />
<strong>The</strong>re are three basic models in VAS:<br />
1) An old model which uses, SMS, voicemail, IVR and USSD etc<br />
2) A new model that bases the access to application, content & information via<br />
GPRS/E<strong>DG</strong>E/3G/LTE etc<br />
3) A blended d model that extracts basic model services and combines them with services<br />
and applications from the new model.<br />
<strong>The</strong> continuous reviewing of these models, and associated technologies then become the<br />
guide as the next inflexion point for technology changes. This repetive e behaviour is reflected<br />
in the diffusion curve shown in Figure 2.<br />
Figure 12: Technology Diffusion Curve<br />
Innovation is defined as being the development of of new values that meet new<br />
requirements, or meeting old customer market needs in value adding ways. Expressed<br />
differently, the process of translating an idea or invention into a good or service that creates<br />
value, or for which customers will pay, is considered innovative.<br />
When doing a comparison between value innovation versus technology innovation, one sees<br />
that without innovation, the value of a product is incremental. Hence costs needs to be<br />
lowered and innovation increased to enable Value Creation. This ensuing rollout is a “Blue<br />
Ocean Strategy.”<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Figure 13:Value innovation versus technology Innovation<br />
<strong>The</strong> sequencing undertaken by the team to outline the models, incorporated using the Blue<br />
Ocean Strategy. This approach helped develop and create the various ideas adopted in this<br />
proposal.<br />
<strong>The</strong> models selected are based on the various budget tiers. <strong>The</strong>se models have been rated<br />
according to the impact it will have on the objective of reducing the cost of communications<br />
in SA. Costs are roughly estimated so as to provide a platform from which to upscale. <strong>The</strong><br />
architectures and plans are devised from existing products in the market and does not cater<br />
for the evolution of technology due to uncertainty and short durations that these<br />
technologies are in existence.<br />
Based on the global current and future trends, the areas identified as points of leverage for<br />
lowering the cost of communications are shown in Figure 15. With the subscriber uptake<br />
playing an influential role in the cost reduction:<br />
POLICY & REGULATION<br />
CUSTOMER<br />
Regulator<br />
Fixed<br />
and/or<br />
Mobile<br />
BROADBAND<br />
VOICE<br />
Mobile<br />
Fixed<br />
Wireless<br />
Mobile<br />
Fixed<br />
Figure 14: Segmentation of market drivers for reduction in access costs.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
According to the UMTS forum, the major trends and drivers that will shape the world of<br />
until 2020 are perceived as:<br />
• Mobile voice was overtaken by mobile data at the end of 2009. Data was the<br />
number one service category at the beginning of 2010 in terms of traffic generated<br />
on mobile networks. Mobile voice traffic growth is expected to remain limited<br />
compared to the explosive growth in data traffic until 2020.<br />
• Currently mobile data traffic drastically reaches very high figures for mobile<br />
broadband subscribers. In November 2010, one Scandinavian operator indicated<br />
that the average 3G smart phone user consumed 375 MB/month of data. <strong>The</strong><br />
average 3G broadband user consumed 5 GB/month, largely through HSPA-data<br />
cards. But the average LTE consumer (all data cards) used 14 GB – 15 GB/month of<br />
data. In the USA, one operator announced an average of 7 GB per month of data for<br />
a base of 2 million subscribers in July 2010.<br />
• Growing number of mobile devices such as tablets, dongles, smartphones and<br />
connected devices are being used.<br />
• <strong>The</strong> LTE ecosystem is developing rapidly as LTE took off in 2010 in Scandanavian and<br />
Europena countries whilst LTE-Advanced is planned for 2015 according to time and<br />
to market expectations.<br />
• In 2010, the machine-to-machine (M2M) market already represented 53 million<br />
modules. M2M will continue to grow significantly. However in the future, the main<br />
contribution for mobile traffic will come from other devices.<br />
• Small cells and Femtocells are becoming the solutions of choice for increasing<br />
network capacity.<br />
• Social networking has become very important for mobile users and now represents<br />
new consumption patterns and generates significant traffic.<br />
• Video has become increasingly important and is the No.1 source of data traffic. TV<br />
content provision by Internet also generates data traffic on mobile networks<br />
Within the South African context, the usage of internet in South Africa is low and by<br />
leveraging of the various segments identified and making use of the established models as<br />
per segment division, the cost of communications will be reduced.<br />
According to statistics from the Internet World Statistics forum, South Africa has a very low<br />
internet penetration rate of 17.4%<br />
Figure 15:Internet usage in South Africa<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
7.2. Developing Economy Adoption Curve<br />
Data is king. As much as this is a cliché, at any point if data is introduced into a network, there will<br />
be an increase in revenue. This is substantiated by research done in Europe. Figure 15 shows a<br />
typical data day in Europe.<br />
Figure 16: Growth Trends of Data<br />
Hence adopting a suitable model and providing data at different leverage points will systematically<br />
guide and grow the adoption curve of technology. Influencing factors such as the uptake in similar<br />
markets abroad will play a vital role in the growth. Hence on one end of the scale we have a growth<br />
in technology and a simulated market need, on the other hand the basic requirements to access this<br />
currently and in the short term future is not in place within the South African context.<br />
Further to this, trying to replicate models that have functioned well in Europe may and probably<br />
could fail in South Africa. <strong>The</strong> team is of the opinion that the models selected that can help the<br />
evolution of technology must and will be based on a local need of the target segment. <strong>The</strong> marketing<br />
and advertising leverage points should be kept further away from the subscriber so that the costs<br />
are lowered and the subscriber is not afraid or deterred from exploring within the new cost<br />
paradigms set by the interventions in South Africa.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
7.3. Digital Divide<br />
A digital divide is an economic inequality between groups in terms of access to, use of or<br />
knowledge of ICT. Overcoming the digital divide requires that an individual must be able to<br />
connect in order to achieve enhancement of social and cultural capital as well as achieve<br />
mass economic gains in productivity.<br />
Looking into the current status of Africa, which a population of about 1.2 billion there are<br />
only 60 million broadband connections reflecting and approximate 5% penetration rate. This<br />
however is counteracted by an 80% annual growth<br />
Figure 17: Mobile Broadband Growth in Africa<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Within South Africa, the mobile social networking environment is also growing, however for<br />
a population of 50 million, very few have a social networking status. This is mainly<br />
contributed to the access costs and the availability of affordable Smartphones as shown in<br />
Figure 17.<br />
Figure 18: Mobile Social Network status for those who have access<br />
A Key components of this Divide is shown in the different between the BoP, and RoP per<br />
figure 19 below. Some noteworthy points are the difference in Postpaid, Internet<br />
Capabilities and Handset Charging venues;<br />
Figure 19: BoP/RoP Divide<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
7.4. Painting the picture within South Africa:<br />
As of March 2012, there were around 3.5 million broadband connections in South Africa,<br />
with around 850,000 of these being ADSL (26%), over 2.5 million being 3G/HSPA (69%). 93%<br />
of households had mobile phones in 2011, but only 15% had fixed lines, and 10% had<br />
broadband internet access.<br />
Figure 20: Broadband in South Africa<br />
Most public facilities are connected to the Internet. Still more than one-quarter of schools<br />
do not have broadband coverage.<br />
Figure 21: Broadband Penetration at SA public facilities<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
8. Technical Solution Strategy Overview<br />
Guided by the strategy, there is an array of models that will help facilitate the reduction in costs of<br />
data transfer. Some models overlap and a blend of a few models could further catapult a change in<br />
the industry.<br />
It stands to reason that regulatory approval is imperative for crucial solutions where ICASA<br />
intervention is required. This could be a delaying factor pending on the lobbying and regulatory<br />
target dates. Where satellite, MVNO or MNO model is selected, licence costs for spectrum usage will<br />
be dictated by ICASA unless there can be government intervention considering that the project is<br />
primarily geared for NPOs.<br />
Each model has the innate ability to generate revenue. However the question that is raised is at<br />
what point does revenue become an influencing factor considering that the sponsor is seeking to<br />
reduce costs.<br />
Every model caters for the end consumer, and with zero-rated rated applications and models in mind, the<br />
poorest man, woman or child with a mobile phone will have the ability to access the internet. Figure<br />
22 displays a high level view of all the solutions explored within the following criteria;<br />
• Cost of Implementation<br />
• Effect on Reducing the Cost of Communication<br />
• Ease of Implementation<br />
• Technology Readiness<br />
Figure 22: Solutions Cost-Benefit-Effect-Complexity Positioning Model<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9. Technology Matrix<br />
Figure 23: Solutions Matrix cluster<br />
Each project has been categorised within a context of Technology, Cost, Effect and Feasibility as<br />
shown in Figure 23 and 24.<br />
Figure 24: High Level Cost Model<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1. TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS<br />
9.1.1. WAPA (Aggregator ISP)<br />
<strong>The</strong> approach in this model is for a new entity to be established similar to WAPA (Wireless<br />
Access Application Providers) but aligned to them. WAPA is a body that collectively represents<br />
wireless operators in South Africa. <strong>The</strong> goal of an aggregator ISP will be to ensure that all<br />
network bound traffic is directed via the newly formed body. This eliminates the need for the<br />
NPOs to pay or incur high costs when connecting through an existing service provider.<br />
Current<br />
Proposed<br />
NPO 1<br />
NPO 2<br />
NPO 2<br />
NPO n<br />
NPO pays a<br />
fee<br />
Wireless<br />
Access<br />
Provider<br />
NPO n<br />
NPO 1<br />
MNO<br />
NO<br />
fee<br />
Aggregator ISP<br />
Provider pays a<br />
fee to MNO but<br />
@ discounted<br />
rate<br />
MNO<br />
Negotiated or<br />
zero-rated<br />
MNO<br />
Figure 25: NPO Aggregator ISP<br />
Through the hosting of all ISP Data Services, the NPO Aggregator could negotiate through a<br />
consolidated front for ZERO rated data services. Also, this organisation could reach economies<br />
of scale that puts it in a strong bargaining position with industry players where the cost of<br />
hosting, data and other services are involved.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1.2. Social Service Communications Compliance (SSCC)<br />
This in essence is a newly formed industry recognized body that overlooks all activity<br />
pertaining to NPOs, social and economic upliftment via the use of mobile telephony and<br />
projects overseeing the drive to reduce the costs of telecommunications. This administrative<br />
body would require a complete database infrastructure mostly controlling document<br />
management. It will incorporate a web portal for registration and access to information.<br />
Figure 26: Social Service Communications Compliance model<br />
This body would require the collaboration of all NPO’s, and will need to be function as a public<br />
benefit organisation that is sanctioned by ICASA, the Department of Communications, and the<br />
National Government. Its main purpose will be Stakeholder Co-Ordination, Public Advocacy,<br />
Industry and Government Lobbying, Compliance Monitoring, Strategic Support to Public<br />
Organisations, and the Commissioning and Delivery of Research Reports and Information to<br />
the Decision Making authorities.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1.3. NPO WASP (Wireless Application Service provider)<br />
In this model the tendency is to lean towards forming a new and independent WASP,<br />
supported by the <strong><strong>DG</strong>MT</strong>, with the goal of only dealing with NPOs<br />
NPO<br />
NPO 2<br />
NPO n<br />
NPO 1<br />
MNO 2<br />
NO fee<br />
WASP<br />
Negotiated or<br />
zero-rated<br />
MNO 1<br />
Etc…<br />
Figure 27: NPO WASP Model<br />
<strong>The</strong> newly formed WASP then has complete management and control of all NPOs seeking<br />
assistance. <strong>The</strong> benefits will be;<br />
• Zero Rated USSD Tariff’s<br />
• Zero Rated SMS MO<br />
• 100% Revenue Share<br />
• Zero Rated IVR Lines<br />
• Zero Rated NPO Mobile and Website Traffic<br />
This model requires regulatory approval in the form of an ICASA intervention to Oblige the<br />
Mobile Network Operators to Zero Rate all Social Services pertaining to bona-fide Non-Profit<br />
Organisations and will need to be justified to the MNO’s on the basis of their “License to<br />
Operate” CSI Mandate.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1.4. Access Point Node/Name Application (APN APP)<br />
APNs deployed via the packet infrastructure on a mobile network eg. GPRS, Edge, 3G, HSDPA<br />
& HSUPA are widely used in various business. <strong>The</strong>y have a vast range of applications enabling<br />
mobile users and various others. From cost benefits to ease of deployment, APNs provide a<br />
fast alternative in the arena of Wide-area networking.<br />
<strong>The</strong> APN service can either function with standard contract SIMs or via a cheaper data bundle<br />
deployed across multiple SIMs and multiple remote sites.<br />
<strong>The</strong> rationale behind the APN APP is to first work with the networks to load the APN on their<br />
environment so that any subscriber who has the APN loaded on their profile will have access<br />
to a specific environment – more specifically an application that enables them to chat, access<br />
the internet and communicate in general. This APN is then either zero-rated rated or sponsored thus<br />
providing the accessibility to subscribers who cannot afford basic access.<br />
APPLICATION<br />
WASP or ISP<br />
Liv<br />
e<br />
NETWORKI<br />
NG CLOUD<br />
FIREWALL<br />
&<br />
GATEWAYS<br />
MNO<br />
APN on subs<br />
profile<br />
Normal<br />
subscriber<br />
Figure 28: Zero Rated/Reverse Billed Mobile APP APN model<br />
9.1.5. NPO Data – reverse billing<br />
<strong>The</strong> main focus of this model is use an existing ISP or create a new service provider or third<br />
party whereby reverse billing is applied to all transactions and traffic related to NPOs. A<br />
register will be kept by the ISP or third party and will manage all associated mobile<br />
applications and sites. <strong>The</strong> third party will be responsible for coordinating with the various<br />
MNOs. <strong>The</strong> ISP will be dedicated to NPOs and the <strong><strong>DG</strong>MT</strong> will finance the ISP as well as<br />
negotiated or zero-rated rated traffic rates provided by either a single MNO or all MNOs.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1.6. Informal retail broadband environment<br />
<strong>The</strong> model deals with broadband being available at spaza- shops where cards are sold to<br />
customers and connectivity then enabled for the customers. <strong>The</strong> spaza-shops shops become Wifi<br />
hotspots and provide the beacon of connectivity for the surrounding area.<br />
Figure 29: Informal retail broadband model<br />
This solution has multiple objectives and the potential to stimulate entrepreneurship, whilst at<br />
the same time, reducing the cost of communications.<br />
It is envisaged that technology devices would need to be installed, with POS i.e. Point of Sale,<br />
and LAN i.e. Local Area Networks in the form of “Wireless Mesh’s” in order to enable the<br />
solution. A critical success factor here would be getting a cost effective “last mile” partner either<br />
providing fibre, satellite or 3G connectivity.<br />
9.1.7. MVNO<br />
<strong>The</strong> mobile virtual network operator has a roaming agreement with an existing operator.<br />
Depending on the nature of the MVNO, different products and varying services can be<br />
offered.<br />
Figure 30: MVNO model<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
A entity can be setup to develop wholesale arrangements with the Network Operators eg. Virgin<br />
Mobile, Redbull Mobile, and “Piggy Back” of one of the existing networks infrastructure for<br />
Data, SMS, MMS, USSD etc.<br />
a. As a not for profit entity, a strong brand can be created linked to social upliftment<br />
i. This positioning will support subscriber growth i.e. giving back whilst you<br />
speak<br />
b. An infrastructure will need to be in place for billing, customer service etc<br />
c. <strong>The</strong> MVNO can Develop/Brand Simcards and airtime etc<br />
d. Margins can be low and advertising revenue stimulated<br />
e. Public Sector and Social Responsible firms can be canvassed for contrac<br />
This option has huge potential to be disruptive and extremely effective, however, the costs are very<br />
high and the venture risky. If interconnect rates come down further, even just for NPO’s, this model<br />
will prove to be an ideal option.<br />
9.1.8. SOLAR ROUTER DEVICE<br />
<strong>The</strong> device will contain a SIM card enabled with data and a battery that will be charged via a<br />
solar panel. It will enable the user to also charge his handset, power four light emmitting<br />
diode (LED) lights and act as a WiFi unit for the customer to<br />
solution should be enabled to only work via the mobile operators thus creating an additional<br />
revenue stream whilst forcing a reduction in the costs of data by being partially subsidised to<br />
the customer.
9.1.9. MVNE<br />
<strong>The</strong> MVNE model is similar to the MVNO but without the Sales and marketing functions. As an<br />
MVNE, the entity can sign up retail partners as MVNO’s eg. Spar, Shoprite etc.<br />
Thus sales, marketing and the branding is carried by the Partner. <strong>The</strong> role that the MVNE will<br />
play is being able to reach the untapped and lower end markets which the operators can release<br />
themselves from managing them. <strong>The</strong> focus of the MVNE is the back-end enablement whilst<br />
concurrently not interacting with the end user customers.A representation of the MVNE is<br />
shown in the figure below :<br />
Figure 30: MVNE Model<br />
9.1.10. WIMAX<br />
<strong>The</strong> model is to build an entire Wimax network by providing or leasing the necessary<br />
infrastructure. An ECNS licence wil need to be acquired from ICASA and the necessary CPEs<br />
subsidised into the market to enable a steady network rollout.<br />
Figure 32:Wimax Implementation Environment<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
9.1.11. Mini- Earth Stations<br />
Here the proposal is to gain access to a satellite service provider and negotiate reduced costs<br />
in exchange for lower bandwidth and grade of service.<br />
Infrastructure that will be needed will be the mini earth stations at the home similar to<br />
satellite receivers and the corresponding satellite dishes.<br />
Figure 33:Mini Satellite Earth Station model<br />
Within each model a vary team is required – however the structure to grow the organisation and<br />
evolve as the models mature will require a dedicate team as shown in Figure 34.<br />
CEO<br />
ASSISTANT<br />
CFO<br />
COO<br />
CSO & CBDO<br />
CTO<br />
CMO<br />
Account and<br />
Invoices<br />
Support Manager<br />
Account Manager<br />
Web developer<br />
Brand specialist<br />
Account and<br />
Invoices<br />
Specialist Support<br />
Account Manager<br />
Database specialist<br />
Marketing specialist<br />
Specialist Support<br />
Account Manager<br />
Lead developer<br />
Specialist Support<br />
Junior developer<br />
Specialist Support<br />
BI Specialist<br />
Figure 34: Generic Evolving Model Operating Structure<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
10. Key <strong>Recommendations</strong><br />
<strong>The</strong> solutions proposed cannot work in isolation and require many other factors in order to<br />
successfully reduce the cost of communications, below figure 33 describes the recommended<br />
regulatory interventions, and technology and industry solutions that the <strong><strong>DG</strong>MT</strong> should pursue;<br />
<strong>Recommendations</strong> Matrix<br />
Industry Solutions<br />
MVNO/E<br />
Technology Solutions<br />
Open Access MNO<br />
(GSM/WIMAX etc)<br />
Reverse Billed Mobile<br />
Social Networking &<br />
Services Application<br />
Regulatory Interventions<br />
NPO WASP<br />
Informal Retail<br />
Broadband Solution<br />
NPO Data<br />
Service<br />
Regulation<br />
Open<br />
Access GSM<br />
Network<br />
License<br />
ECN NPO<br />
License<br />
NPO<br />
Termination<br />
Rate Policy<br />
Consumer<br />
Bundle<br />
Donation<br />
Policy<br />
<strong>Recommendations</strong> Matrix<br />
<strong>The</strong> recommended regulatory inventions are high leverage points and should be pursued<br />
concurrently with short term technology and industry solutions being the OTT Mobile<br />
Application Service, and the NPO WASP Service.<br />
Medium term solutions that have merit and should be explored further are the MVNO,<br />
MVNE, and Informal Retail Broadband Environments.<br />
<strong>The</strong> longer term solution that is a definitive game changer, and extremely disruptive is a<br />
hybrid Open Access MNO using a blend of GSM, WIMAX, Satellite and Fibre technologies for<br />
connectivity and backhaul connectivity. This longer term solution requires policy directive,<br />
spectrum allocation, infrastructure and collaboration amongst and between all ecosystems<br />
and will hence take a long time to implement.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
11. Further Work<br />
<strong>The</strong> diagram below describes the regulatory and other barriers in order to implement the<br />
key recommended solutions, these are explained in further detail below;<br />
Figure 35: Key Solutions and Barriers<br />
Regulation<br />
<strong>The</strong> regulatory interventions are an extremely important area, and irrespective of whether<br />
any industry or technology solutions are pursued, it is imperative that further work be done<br />
in this arena. ICASA, DOC and DTI should be lobbied further in order to develop a level of<br />
awareness around the interventions and their impact.<br />
A barrier to applying relevant regulation is the lack of ICASA funding in order to conduct<br />
market reviews so that representations can be made in parliament. According to ICASA, each<br />
market review costs +- ZAR 5 million. <strong>The</strong> following market reviews would be beneficial to<br />
conduct in collaboration oration with ICASA;<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
• Impact Measurement/Assessment of Social Service Register Regulation on<br />
Education, Domestic Abuse, HIV, Crime etc<br />
• Mobile Bundle Trends i.e. Usage, Carried Over & Lost Minutes/SMS’s/Data<br />
• Model for GSM Spectrum License Allocation for Social Services<br />
Technology Solution<br />
a) Reverse Billed Mobile Application<br />
Further research into the design, costs and feasibility of developing a Free Reverse Billed<br />
Mobile Application should be undertaken. This should be able to provide the following<br />
information;<br />
• Functional Specification of Service<br />
• Design and Content Management<br />
• Development, Management and Ongoing Maintenance and Data Costs<br />
• Rollout, Marketing and Uptake<br />
• Revenue Generation Possibilities and Forecasts<br />
b) Information Retail Broadband Solution<br />
Although this solution is a bit of a mid-term one because it is highly infrastructure driven,<br />
further work in this regard should be done with infrastructure players in order to develop<br />
feasible models that will reducing the cost of communications whilst at the same time<br />
generating income for owners of informal retail stores i.e. Spaza shops. Further work here<br />
involves;<br />
• Researching Costs, Budgets and Feasibility<br />
• Designing a Commercial Business Model<br />
• Researching and Developing Appropriate Equipment<br />
• Identifying Possible Sites, Technologies and Rollout Plans<br />
• Negotiating Costs of Backhaul Services<br />
• Designing Operating Model and Data Subsidies and Prices<br />
Industry Solution<br />
a) NPO WASP<br />
<strong>The</strong> business case and feasibility for the setting up of an NPO WASP should be researched<br />
further. This solution although powerful, requires either industry MNO player willingness,<br />
and/or regulatory intervention by ICASA in terms of the Social Service Compliance Model<br />
suggested herein. Further work in this regard would be to;<br />
• Lobby ICASA Further and Assess Time and Costs of Intervention<br />
• Support the Process through Research and Stakeholder Management<br />
• Design Operating Model and Strategy<br />
• Device Budgets and Management Plans<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
) MVNO/MVNE<br />
<strong>The</strong> MVNO/MVNE Models eg. Virgin Mobile is a mid-term model as they are highly complex<br />
in that they are challenging to make sustainable – even more so as a low cost/cheap/free<br />
carrier. <strong>The</strong> cost of setup, subscriber management, and ongoing business management and<br />
support is extremely high. This model is a highly commercial one that requires careful<br />
business planning and consideration, and high level negotiations and support from an<br />
incumbent MNO which we have obtained. Further work here will involve;<br />
• Commercial Contracts/Options and Case Study Reviews<br />
• Value Added Service, Tarriffing, Product Design and Revenue Forecasting<br />
• Advertising and Revenue Generating Business Development<br />
• Integrated Marketing Strategy Development<br />
• Subscriber Planning and Cost Subsiding<br />
• Channel Distribution, Supply Chain and Logistic<br />
• Financial Planning and Modelling<br />
• Partnerships and Stakeholder Relationship Development<br />
• Business Operations and Management Design<br />
• Technical Planning and Implementation Roadmap Development<br />
• Funding and Sustainability Planning<br />
c) Open Access MNO<br />
This option has been earmarked as a long term solution as it requires an ECNS license in<br />
terms of the communication network it will need to implement, as well as a GSM Spectrum<br />
license if it is to use the GSM Frequency. Essentially, this model has 3 types of complexity i.e.<br />
1) Customer Connectivity Mechanisms to Network eg. Wi-fi/GSM etc, 2) Network<br />
Connectivity to Exchange/Presence i.e. Last Mile eg. Microwave, Wimax etc, and 3) Backhaul<br />
Connectivity to WWW i.e. Satellite, Fibre, DSL etc.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Figure 36: Open Access MNO<br />
It is very possible to setup an MNO, however, getting these 3 components in sync is a real<br />
challenge. Further work here should involve;<br />
• Lobby DOC and ICASA for GSM License<br />
• Investigate Application for ECNS License<br />
• Explore Interim Backhaul Pilot using WIMAX/Satellite Technologies<br />
Once these 2 licensing areas are addressed, further work can be done here in terms of<br />
business planning.<br />
12. Conclusion<br />
<strong>The</strong> Telecommunications industry is currently geared for change and there is ample activity<br />
aimed at reducing the cost of communication in SA. <strong>The</strong>re is a general feeling that the MNO’s<br />
and other commercial stakeholders are too “powerful”, and that they are collectively able to<br />
block any initiatives or technologies that disrupt their business models through their strategic<br />
positioning, commercial means, and Beaurocracy. <strong>The</strong> industry sentiment is also that ICASA is<br />
not as committed, resourced, skilled and/or well funded enough to effectively drive meaningful<br />
change in cost reduction, and that there are influential forces within national government that<br />
work at cross-purposes with interested parties willing to effect change.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Whilst there is merit in many of these feelings and sentiments, research has shown some<br />
evidence to the contrary where opportunities exist to effect change. More work is required to<br />
explore these in order to evaluate various options and possibilities.<br />
It was also found that a single solution to reducing the cost of communication does not stand<br />
out since from an Ecosystem Perspective it may only affect a small group of consumers. In order<br />
to create the impact required, many interventions are required over time to effectively meet the<br />
objectives. <strong>The</strong> interventions suggested however are all good candidates for change, and can<br />
collectively be pursued over time per the figure below;<br />
Figure 37: Solutions Roadmap<br />
Interestingly, despite the extent of “noise” in the industry related to reducing the cost of<br />
communications in SA, and the plethora of initiatives in the marketplace, there does not seem to be<br />
a local South African Non-Profit and Non-Governmental organisation ion in SA that is dedicated<br />
exclusively to this purpose, and within the context of this report.<br />
A roadmap model per Figure 37 could be a good way of pursuing the various options over time.<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
13. Glossary<br />
APN: An Access Point Name (APN) is the name of a gateway between a GPRS (or 3G, etc) mobile network and another computer network,<br />
frequently the public Internet.<br />
CUG: Closed User Groups are groups of GSM mobile telephone subscribers who can only make calls and receive calls from group members<br />
Downstream: In a telecommunications network or computer network, downstream refers to data sent from a network service provider to<br />
a customer.<br />
GSM: Global System for Mobile Communications, is a standard set developed by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute<br />
(ETSI) to describe protocols for second generation (2G) digital cellular networks used by mobile phones.<br />
ICASA: : <strong>The</strong> Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) is the regulator for the South African communications,<br />
broadcasting and postal services sector.<br />
ISPA: : <strong>The</strong> Internet Service Providers' Association is a South African Internet industry body not for gain.<br />
Interactive voice response (IVR) is a technology that allows a computer to interact with humans through the use of voice and DTMF tones<br />
input via keypad.<br />
Metro Ethernet: A metropolitan-area area Ethernet, Ethernet MAN, or metro Ethernet network is a metropolitan area network (MAN) that is<br />
based on Ethernet standards. It is commonly used to connect subscribers to a larger service network or the Internet. Businesses can also<br />
use metropolitan-area area Ethernet to connect their own offices to each other.<br />
MNO: Mobile Network Operator (ie MTN, Vodacom)<br />
MVNE: A Mobile Virtual Network Enabler (or MVNE) is a company that provides services to mobile virtual network operators, such as<br />
billing, network element provisioning, administration, operations, support of business support systems and operations support systems,<br />
and provision of back end network elements, to enable provision of mobile network services like cellular phone connectivity.<br />
MVNO: A mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) is a wireless communications services provider that does not own the radio spectrum<br />
or wireless network infrastructure over which the MVNO provides services to its customers. An MVNO enters into a business agreement<br />
with a mobile network operator to obtain bulk access to network services at wholesale rates, then sets retail prices independently. An<br />
MVNO may use its own customer service and billing support systems, marketing and sales personnel or it may employ the services of a<br />
Mobile Virtual Network Enabler (MVNE)<br />
OTA: Over <strong>The</strong> Air -Wireless communication is the transfer of information between two or more points that are not connected by an<br />
electrical conductor.<br />
Upstream :In computer networking, upstream refers to the direction in which data can be transferred from the client to the server<br />
USAASA: : <strong>The</strong> Universal Service and Access Agency of South Africa (USAASA) is a State Owned Entity of government established through<br />
the Electronic Communications Act, No 36 of 2005, to ensure that "every man, woman and child whether living in the remote areas of the<br />
Kalahari or in urban areas of Gauteng can be able to connect, speak, explore and study using ICT's.<br />
USSD: (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data) is a protocol used by GSM cellular telephones to communicate with the service<br />
provider's computers. USSD can be used for WAP browsing, prepaid callback service, mobile-money money services, location-based content<br />
services, menu-based information services, and as part of configuring the phone on the network.<br />
VAS: A value-added added service is a popular telecommunications industry term for non-core services, or in short, all services beyond standard<br />
voice calls and fax transmissions<br />
WAPA: : <strong>The</strong> Wireless Access Providers’ Association (WAPA), established in 2006, is a non-profit IRB (industry representative body) acting as<br />
a collective voice for independent wireless operators in South Africa.<br />
Wi-Fi is a popular technology that allows an electronic device to exchange data wirelessly (using radio waves) over a computer network,<br />
including high-speed Internet connections.<br />
WIMAX: WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) is a wireless communications standard designed to provide 30 to 40<br />
megabit-per-second data rates.<br />
USAL: Under-Serviced Area Licence<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
14. Appendices<br />
Appendix 1 – Industry Contact List<br />
(REMOVED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY REASONS)<br />
Appendix 2 – Stakeholders Interviewed<br />
(REMOVED FOR CONFIDENTIALITY REASONS)<br />
Appendix 3 – Research References<br />
- Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Kim, Yongsoo. (Building broadband :<br />
strategies and policies for the developing world / Yongsoo Kim)<br />
- OECD (2012), “Developments in Mobile Termination”,OECD Digital Economy Papers, No. 193,<br />
OECD Publishing. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k9f97dxnd9r-en)<br />
- Research ICT Africa - 2012, Policy Brief No. 1, A Gilwald et al<br />
- “Cost of Communication in SA” - Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on<br />
Communications Public Hearing Cape Town, 29 November 2012, A Gilwald<br />
- Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) (2010), Call Termination<br />
Regulations, Government Gazette No. 33698, 29 October 2010.<br />
- Farsan Madjdi, Stefan Hüsig, (2011),"<strong>The</strong> heterogeneity of incumbents' perceptions and<br />
response strategies in the face of potential disruptions", foresight, Vol. 13 Iss: 5 pp. 14 – 33<br />
- From virtual operations strategy to building infrastructure(2007): <strong>The</strong> case of Tele2 in the<br />
competitive landscape of telecommunications", Strategic Direction, Vol. 23 Iss: 11 pp. 23- 25<br />
- Simon Forge,Colin Blackman, Erik Bohlin, (2006),"Constructing and using scenarios to<br />
forecast demand for future mobile communications services", foresight, Vol. 8 Iss:3 pp.36-54<br />
- J.P. Singh, Sarah M. Gilchrist, (2002),"Three layers of the electronic commerce network:<br />
challenges for the developed and developing worlds", info, Vol. 4 Iss: 2 pp. 31 – 41<br />
- Kenneth Lap Chi Liu (MIT, 2011), Supply Chain for Mobile Network Operators<br />
- Djamal-Eddine Meddour, Tinku Rasheed, and Yvon Gourhant, On the Role of Infrastructure<br />
sharing for Mobile Network Operators in Emerging Markets<br />
- Regulatory Guide for the Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) operating on the<br />
Romanian electronic communications market (May 2012)<br />
- Telecom Regulatory Authority of India <strong>Recommendations</strong> On Mobile Virtual Network<br />
Operator (MVNO) (New Delhi, 6 August 2008), Mahanagar Doorsanchar Bhawan, Jawahar<br />
Lal Nehru Marg<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
- Aalto University School of Science, Rushil Dave: Mobile Virtual Network Operator Systems<br />
on Cloud: An Architectural and Cost-benefit Study (2011)<br />
- South African ICT Sector Performance Review 2009/2010: Steve Esselaar, Alison Gillwald,<br />
Mpho Moyo and Kammy Naidoo, Towards Evidence-based ICT Policy and Regulation, Volume<br />
Two , Policy Paper 6, 2010<br />
- Independent Communication Authority of South Africa (ICASA), Cost to Communicate In<br />
South Africa, 29 th November 2012<br />
- James Hodge & Nicolas <strong>The</strong>opold, School of Economics, University of Cape Town:<br />
Competition and Regulation in the Telecommunications Industry in South Africa (Prepared<br />
for the Competition Commission), March 2001<br />
- United Nations Foundation, Access to Communication Publication Series Volume 2:<br />
Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in Mobile Use by NGOs<br />
- GSMA, African Mobile Observatory 2011: Driving Economic and Social Development<br />
through Mobile Services<br />
- HSRC Press: Mapping ICT Access in South Africa, Chapter 5 – Underserviced<br />
Area Licensing<br />
- InfoDev: Mobile Usage at the Base of the Pyramid in South Africa, December 2012 (Research<br />
ICT Africa and Intelecon)<br />
Appendix 4 – External Web References<br />
External Web Reference Links<br />
Convergence Strategies for non profit organisations<br />
• Welfare & non-profit organizations ICT for the not-for-profit sector | T-Systems<br />
• Mobile-Value-Added-Services-digital-report.pdf (application/pdf Object)<br />
• What is Solavei and How Can You Profit from Social Commerce - YouTube<br />
Telecom Expense Management Software for non profit organizations<br />
• Convergence Strategies - Telecom Expense Management Software For Nonprofit<br />
Organizations<br />
.<br />
Non-profit-organisations organisations in the telecom market<br />
• Peru: Non-profit-organisations organisations in the telecom market | ICT Regulation Toolkit<br />
• <strong>The</strong> Mobile Nonprofit —<br />
New technologies for organizations to do the most good.<br />
• Creating a Mobile Marketing Strategy for Your Nonprofit Organization | NetSquared<br />
• Cause.it for Nonprofits on Vimeo<br />
• For Non-Profit Organizations – Power of Mobile Giving « Mobile Giving<br />
Digital Trends in South Africa / Africa<br />
• Google's 'Free Zone' brings Internet to feature phone users in emerging markets | Digital<br />
Trends<br />
• Petition: SMS fundraising | NGO Pulse<br />
Advertising based Revenue ( incl MVNO)<br />
• Australian Firm SMSpup Launches Ad Subsidized Mobile Phone Service — paidContent<br />
• NetZero launches free mobile broadband service based on Clear's 4G network - TechSpot<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
• VAS | Prepaid MVNO<br />
WASP Aggregators<br />
• Vodacom<br />
• http://www.mtn.co.za/partners/wasps/WASP%20Partners/Pages/WASPsPartnersOverview.as<br />
pxstart=0&end=zz<br />
•<br />
Agencies that assist with driving Government<br />
• WAPA | Wireless Access Providers' Association of South Africa<br />
• WAPA calls on ICASA to implement lite-licensing licensing in the local wireless access market | WAPA<br />
• USAASA - Universal Service and Access Agency of South Africa<br />
• Parliament of South Africa<br />
APNs (Forward and Reverse Billed)<br />
• MTN Forward Billed APN's<br />
• MTN Reverse Billed APNs<br />
Rural Broadband & Wifi<br />
• Chasing the elusive dream of rural wireless broadband - FierceBroadbandWireless<br />
• Village Telco<br />
• Tellumat - Wireless Solutions - Niche Solutions - Rural Broadband Wireless Access -<br />
Municipal Broadband Project<br />
• <strong>The</strong> rise of 5GHz wifi<br />
• <strong>The</strong> surprising truth about wifi services in SA<br />
Research and Incubabtion hubs<br />
• Praekelt Foundation<br />
• CSIR : Information and Communications<br />
TV White Spaces<br />
• <strong>The</strong> Cape Town TV White Spaces Trial — TENET<br />
• BBC News - TV's white spaces connecting rural Africa<br />
Solar Power Inititatives<br />
• Vodacom solar powers rural village | News24<br />
South African Mobile Internet Costs Comparison<br />
• South African mobile internet data cost comparison<br />
• Mobile data rates under the microscope<br />
• Mobile Cost hike inevitable<br />
Wikipedia for free<br />
• Jimmy Wales | Free knowledge for free minds<br />
South African school-goers lobby mobile operators for free Wikipedia access<br />
Author: Ahmed Kajee<br />
12 March 2013
Author: Ahmed Kajee 12 March 2013