A Macro-Fiscal Modeling Framework for Forecasting and Policy ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Output and Expenditure Variables 2.2 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Capital and Investment 2.3 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Export and Import 2.4 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Price Variables 2.5 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Monetary Variables 2.6 Testing for Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Fiscal Variables 2.7 Structural Break Dates 3.1 List of Exogenous Variables 4.1 Private Consumption Expenditure 4.2 Private Investment Expenditure 4.3 Government Consumption Expenditure 4.4 Agricultural Output 4.5 Industrial Output 4.6 Output of Services Sector 4.7 Investment in Agriculture 4.8 Investment in Industries 4.9 Investment in Services 4.10 Demand for Imports 4.11 Exports 4.12 Demand for Broad Money 4.13 Supply of Broad Money 4.14 Long Term Interest Rate 4.15 Implicit Price Deflator of GDP at Market Prices 4.16 Implicit Price Deflator of GDP at Factor Cost 4.17 Unit Value of Import 4.18 Unit Value of Exports 4.19 Implicit Price Deflator of Investment 4.20 Income Tax Revenue 4.21 Corporation Tax Revenue 4.22 Union Excise Duties 4.23 Import Duties 4.24 Central Effective Interest Rate 4.25 State Sales Taxes 4.26 State Other Indirect Taxes 4.27 State Effective Interest Rate 4.28 Testing for First Order Serial Correlation in the Estimated Equation Residuals 5.1 Real Output: Summary Indicators of Performance 5.2 Monetary and Price Variables: Summary Indicators of Performance 5.3 External Sector Variables: Summary Indicators of Performance xiii
5.4 Selected Tax Revenues: Summary Indicators of Performance 5.5 Selected Fiscal Variables: Summary Indicators of Performance 6.1 Forecasts of Macro Indicators: Growth Rates 6.2 Forecasts of Macro Indicators: Relative to GDP 6.3 Interest Rates: Nominal 6.4 Central Finances: Tax Revenues 6.5 Central Finances: Revenue Receipts 6.6 Central Finances: Expenditures 6.7 Central Finances: Deficits and Debt 6.8 State Finances: Revenue Receipts 6.9 State Finances: Expenditures 6.10 State Finances: Deficits and Debt 6.11 Combined Finances: Revenue Receipts 6.12 Combined Finances: Deficits and Debt 6.13 Forecasts of Macro Indicators: Growth Rates: Scenario 1 6.14 Central Finances: Deficits and Debt: Scenario 1 6.15 State Finances: Deficits and Debt: Scenario 1 6.16 Combined Finances: Deficits and Debt: Scenario 1 6.17 Forecasts of Macro Indicators: Growth Rates: Scenario 2 6.18 Central Finances: Deficits and Debt: Scenario 2 6.19 State Finances: Deficits and Debt: Scenario 2 6.20 Combined Finances: Deficits and Debt 2 7.1 Forecast of Major Macro Economic Variables: Average Growth Rates: 2010-11 to 2014-15 7.2 Forecasts of Major Fiscal Indicators: Centre Average Growth Rates: 2010-11to 2014-15: Selected Fiscal Variables 7.3 Forecasts of Major Fiscal Indicators: Debt and Deficit Relative to GDP at Market Prices in the Base Scenario 7.4 Average Growth Rates: 2010-11 to 2014-15: Selected Variables 7.5 Alternative Scenarios: Key Fiscal Parameters LIST OF CHARTS 1.1 Growth Rates of GDP (real) at Factor Cost and Real GDP (real) at Market Prices 1.2 Sectoral Growth Rates (Real) 1.3 Private Consumption and Investment (Current Prices) as % of GDP 1.4 Broad Money (M3) and Reserve Money (M0) as % of GDP 1.5 Inflation Rates with respect to Implicit Price Deflators of GDP (at Market Prices) and Investment 1.6 Interest Rates: Long-term and Short-term xiv
Page 1 and 2: MONOGRAPH 22/2012 A Macro-Fiscal Mo
Page 3 and 4: MONOGRAPH 22/2012 May 2012 Rs.200/-
Page 5 and 6: Overview and Rationale EXECUTIVE SU
Page 7 and 8: centre‟s and states‟ (taken col
Page 9 and 10: to nearly fully replicate the growt
Page 11 and 12: sustained stimulus to the economy c
Page 13: CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgements E
Page 18 and 19: Chapter 1 1.1 Background INTRODUCTI
Page 20 and 21: elativities or shares of provinces
Page 22 and 23: (VECM) as well as structural cointe
Page 24 and 25: (a) First Phase: Models up to Sixti
Page 26 and 27: short-term variations around long-t
Page 28 and 29: investment) have separate equations
Page 30 and 31: (i) Output Growth The output growth
Page 32 and 33: Chart 1.3: Private Consumption and
Page 34 and 35: Chart 1.6: Interest Rates: Long-ter
Page 36 and 37: On the other hand, during 1950-51 t
Page 38 and 39: Chart 1.11: Revenue Deficits as % o
Page 40: 1.6 Summary In this Chapter we have
Page 43 and 44: (1987). Many economists thought tha
Page 45 and 46: equation, the trend and structural
Page 47 and 48: Papell (1997), and Morimune and Nak
Page 49 and 50: F T ( 1 , 2 , ...., k ; q) = (1/T)
Page 51 and 52: 7. Hatekar-Dongre (2005) argue that
Page 53 and 54: we need to test whether the time se
Page 55 and 56: used to select the optimal number o
Page 57 and 58: 83, and 1997-98. KRS has three brea
Page 59 and 60: IDR has four break dates in the yea
Page 61 and 62: Structural Variables Names Break Da
Page 63 and 64: The real and external sectors are l
Page 65 and 66:
Government investment expenditure i
Page 67 and 68:
compensation of employees to the re
Page 69 and 70:
36. Union Excise Duties: LUDR = f {
Page 71 and 72:
CBKE = CBFDO+CBNDKR-CBRD 64. Combin
Page 73 and 74:
(b) Exogenous Variables Exogenous v
Page 75 and 76:
interest payments; it arises mainly
Page 77 and 78:
the structural break dummy D81, all
Page 79 and 80:
eak dummies (D64, D88 and D99) for
Page 81 and 82:
Table 4.5: Industrial Output Depend
Page 83 and 84:
Table 4.7: Investment in Agricultur
Page 85 and 86:
4.5 External Sector Demand for Impo
Page 87 and 88:
Table 4.12: Demand for Broad Money
Page 89 and 90:
Table 4.14: Long Term Interest Rate
Page 91 and 92:
Table 4.16: Implicit Price Deflator
Page 93 and 94:
Table 4.18 Unit Value of Exports De
Page 95 and 96:
Table 4.20: Income Tax Revenue Depe
Page 97 and 98:
Table 4.22: Union Excise Duties Dep
Page 99 and 100:
Table 4.24: Central Effective Inter
Page 101 and 102:
Table 4.26: State Other Indirect Ta
Page 103 and 104:
Table 4.28: Testing for First Order
Page 105 and 106:
larger the error, the larger will b
Page 107 and 108:
c. Limitations of Comparisons betwe
Page 109 and 110:
The terms thus provide information
Page 111 and 112:
5.3 Investment Variables Table 5.1
Page 113 and 114:
all these variables accurately. The
Page 116 and 117:
Chapter 6 FORECASTS: BASE AND REFOR
Page 118 and 119:
a. Macro Indicators The average gro
Page 120 and 121:
Year Income Tax (ITR) Table 6.4: Ce
Page 122 and 123:
Year Revenue Expenditures (CRE) Tab
Page 124 and 125:
Year Table 6.8: State Finances: Rev
Page 126 and 127:
throughout the period 2010-11 to 20
Page 128 and 129:
Year Table 6.12: Combined Finances:
Page 130 and 131:
On the state finances, there will o
Page 132 and 133:
Year Table 6.16: Combined Finances:
Page 134 and 135:
Year Table 6.17: Forecasts of Macro
Page 136 and 137:
Year Table 6.19: State Finances: De
Page 138:
provided for in order to stimulate
Page 141 and 142:
In order to identify whether the In
Page 143 and 144:
with a balance of payment identity.
Page 145 and 146:
model-forecasts are taken as condit
Page 147 and 148:
Table 7.3: Forecasts of Major Fisca
Page 149 and 150:
In Scenario 2, the following are th
Page 151 and 152:
Commission. This is because of the
Page 153 and 154:
Balakrishnan, P and K. Pushpagandan
Page 155 and 156:
Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979)
Page 157 and 158:
Krishnamurty, K. (1984), “Macroec
Page 159 and 160:
Pandit, V. and B.B. Bhattacharya (1
Page 161 and 162:
Yule, G.U. (1927), “On a Method o
Page 163 and 164:
No. Name Description Unit Source (B
Page 165 and 166:
No. Name Description Unit Source (B
Page 167 and 168:
Exogenous Variables Appendix A3.2 L
Page 169 and 170:
Appendix A4.1 TESTING FOR SERIAL CO
Page 171 and 172:
11 Dependent Variable: RSLEXPR Samp
Page 173 and 174:
21 Dependent Variable: RSLSSR Sampl
Page 175 and 176:
1. Variables YR and YN Appendix A5.
Page 177 and 178:
3. Variables RSN and RLN Years RSN
Page 179 and 180:
5. Variables ITR and CPTR Years ITR
Page 181 and 182:
7. Variables CRR and CRE Years CRR
Page 183 and 184:
9. Variables SRR and SRE Years SRR
Page 185 and 186:
11. Variable YSR Years YSR Forecast
Page 187 and 188:
for 3 years is based on projection
Page 189 and 190:
12. SS: Share of States in Centre
Page 191 and 192:
Appendix A6.2 FORECAST FOR SELECTED
Page 193 and 194:
Years IDR IG CBOBB CBFDO IIR IMPR 2
Page 195 and 196:
Years SKE SOITR SRD SRE SRR SSR 200
Page 197:
MSE Monographs * Monograph 9/2010 F
show all

A Macro-Fiscal Modeling Framework for Forecasting and Policy ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?