A Macro-Fiscal Modeling Framework for Forecasting and Policy ...

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1.7 Exports and Imports at Current Prices as % of GDP 1.8 Primary Revenue Expenditure and Gross Tax Revenues of Centre as % of GDP 1.9 Primary Revenue Expenditure and Tax Revenues of States as % of GDP 1.10 Primary Revenue Expenditure and Tax Revenues of both Centre and States as % of GDP 1.11 Revenue Deficits as % of GDP 1.12 Fiscal Deficits as % of GDP 1.13 Government Debt as % of GDP 5.1 Errors of Bias and Slope List of Appendices A3.1 List of Variables and Data Sources A3.2 List of Exogenous Variables A4.1 Testing for Serial Correlation: Residuals A5.1 In Sample Estimation: Values of Variables A6.1 Forecast of Exogenous Variables A6.2 Forecast for Selected Variables under Reform Scenario: 2008-09 to 2019-20 xv
Page 1 and 2: MONOGRAPH 22/2012 A Macro-Fiscal Mo
Page 3 and 4: MONOGRAPH 22/2012 May 2012 Rs.200/-
Page 5 and 6: Overview and Rationale EXECUTIVE SU
Page 7 and 8: centre‟s and states‟ (taken col
Page 9 and 10: to nearly fully replicate the growt
Page 11 and 12: sustained stimulus to the economy c
Page 13 and 14: CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgements E
Page 15: 5.4 Selected Tax Revenues: Summary
Page 19 and 20: formulation of the recommendations
Page 21 and 22: The contemporary economic situation
Page 23 and 24: It is important to incorporate expe
Page 25 and 26: carry forward the analysis of polic
Page 27 and 28: Equations are estimated after testi
Page 29 and 30: deficit and debt for the centre and
Page 31 and 32: During 2000-01 to 2002-03, agricult
Page 33 and 34: (iv) Rate of Inflation and Rate of
Page 35 and 36: (v) External Sector Chart 1.7 shows
Page 37 and 38: Chart 1.10: Primary Revenue Expendi
Page 39 and 40: Chart 1.12: Fiscal Deficits as % of
Page 42 and 43: Chapter 2 STATIONARITY AND STRUCTUR
Page 44 and 45: we want to test the hypothesis that
Page 46 and 47: have developed some useful tests fo
Page 48 and 49: In the case of a pure structural ch
Page 50 and 51: 2.6 Structural Breaks in Indian Mac
Page 52 and 53: annual average growth rate of outpu
Page 54 and 55: (23) RLN: Nominal long-term interes
Page 56 and 57: YR (=GDP at factor cost at 1999-00
Page 58 and 59: 1960-61, 1968-69 and 1993-94 and fo
Page 60 and 61: 1988-89). IPR has two breaks. LCKR
Page 62 and 63: Chapter 3 MODEL SPECIFICATION The E
Page 64 and 65: LIPR=f{(c, T, D1,..,Dn,S1,..,Sn), L
Page 66 and 67:
13. Net Fixed Capital Stock in Indu
Page 68 and 69:
The demand for M3 depends on income
Page 70 and 71:
LSSR = f {(c, T, D1,..,Dn, S1,..,Sn
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ate on state debt and state debt is
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COBB: This is centre‟s net off-bu
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Chapter 4 MODEL ESTIMATION In this
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Private Investment Expenditure The
Page 80 and 81:
Table 4.4: Agricultural Output Depe
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interaction term (structural break
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Investment in Industries We need to
Page 86 and 87:
Table 4.11: Exports Dependent Varia
Page 88 and 89:
Table 4.13: Supply of Broad Money D
Page 90 and 91:
Table 4.15: Implicit Price Deflator
Page 92 and 93:
Table 4.17: Unit Value of Import De
Page 94 and 95:
Table 4.19: Implicit Price Deflator
Page 96 and 97:
Table 4.21: Corporation Tax Revenue
Page 98 and 99:
Table 4.23: Import Duties Dependent
Page 100 and 101:
Table 4.25: State Sales Taxes Depen
Page 102 and 103:
Table 4.27: State Effective Interes
Page 104 and 105:
Chapter 5 MODEL VALIDATION: IN-SAMP
Page 106 and 107:
accuracy. These properties imply th
Page 108 and 109:
Chart 5.1: Errors of Bias and Slope
Page 110 and 111:
fully replicate the growth rates of
Page 112 and 113:
variables accurately. The systemati
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Table 5.5: Selected Fiscal Variable
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Table 6.1 and forecasts of these va
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Table 6.3 shows that the short and
Page 121 and 122:
Year Table 6.5: Central Finances: R
Page 123 and 124:
Year Table 6.7: Central Finances: D
Page 125 and 126:
For the states, the sales tax/state
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alance on revenue account is achiev
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fall in revenue deficit will also b
Page 131 and 132:
Year Table 6.15: State Finances: De
Page 133 and 134:
6.3 Scenario 2: GST and Fiscal Cons
Page 135 and 136:
Year Table 6.18: Central Finances:
Page 137 and 138:
Year Table 6.20: Combined Finances:
Page 140 and 141:
Chapter 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS T
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ToR. Basically this is a structural
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Current account surplus (CAS), Inco
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Table 7.2 indicates that during the
Page 148 and 149:
consider certain policy changes to
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Table 7.5: Alternative Scenarios: K
Page 152 and 153:
REFERENCES Agarwala, R. (1970), An
Page 154 and 155:
Bosworth, B and S Collins (2003):
Page 156 and 157:
Hansen, Henrik and Tarp, Finn (2001
Page 158 and 159:
Morimune, K. and Mitsuru Nakagawa (
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Shapiro, Matthew D (1988), "The Sta
Page 162 and 163:
Appendix A3.1 VARIABLES USED IN THE
Page 164 and 165:
No. Name Description Unit Source (B
Page 166 and 167:
No. Name Description Unit Source (B
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Exogenous Variables Intercept Dummi
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6 Dependent Variable: RSLYSR Sample
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16 Dependent Variable: RSLPEXP Samp
Page 174 and 175:
26 Dependent Variable: RSLM3 Sample
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2. Variables YAR and YIR Years YAR
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4. Variables PYN and PI Years PYN F
Page 180 and 181:
6. Variables UDR and IDR Years UDR
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8. Variables SSR and SOITR Years SS
Page 184 and 185:
10. Variables CBDEBT and SDEBT Year
Page 186 and 187:
Appendix A6.1 FORECASTS OF EXOGENOU
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excise duties. The sample for servi
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evenues, state sales tax revenue, s
Page 192 and 193:
Years CGTR CIP CKE CPR CPTR CRD 200
Page 194 and 195:
Years PEXP PI PIMP PVDYR PYN PYR 20
Page 196 and 197:
MSE Working Papers Recent Issues *
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