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THE WOMEN PROBLEM. WHO IS WINNING THE BATTLE FOR BRITAIN'S FEMALE VOTE <br />
TECHNICAL SUBMISSION <br />
LEGAL NOTICE <br />
© 2013 Ipsos MORI – all rights reserved. <br />
The contents of this proposal constitute <strong>the</strong> sole and exclusive property of Ipsos MORI. <br />
Ipsos MORI retains all right, title and interest, including without limitation copyright, in or to any Ipsos MORI <br />
trademarks, technologies, methodologies, products, analyses, software and know-‐how included or arising out <br />
of this proposal or used in connection with <strong>the</strong> preparation of this proposal. No license under any copyright is <br />
hereby granted or implied. <br />
The contents of this proposal are of a commercially sensitive and confidential nature and intended solely for <br />
<strong>the</strong> review and consideration of <strong>the</strong> person or entity to which it is addressed. No o<strong>the</strong>r use is permitted and <br />
<strong>the</strong> addressee undertakes not to disclose all or part of this proposal to any third party (including but not <br />
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CONTENTS <br />
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1 <br />
2015: THE BATTLE FOR THE FEMALE VOTE ................................................. 4 <br />
THE STATISTICS............................................................................................ 8 <br />
BEHIND THE STATISTICS: MUMSNET USERS SPEAK UP ............................. 23 <br />
Author: <br />
Anushka Asthana, political correspondent at Sky News <br />
and previously chief political correspondent at <strong>the</strong> Times <br />
and policy editor at <strong>the</strong> The Observer. <br />
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1 <br />
INTRODUCTION <br />
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INTRODUCTION <br />
If <strong>the</strong>re is one long-‐term trend that Prime Minister David Cameron is unlikely to have missed it is <br />
this: his party’s historic popularity with women has been waning over time. <br />
In 1992, <strong>the</strong> Conservatives attracted more female votes than male ones; by 2010 – in a political <br />
battle dubbed by <strong>the</strong> press <strong>the</strong> “<strong>Mumsnet</strong> election” – this had ceased to be <strong>the</strong> case. <br />
Mr Cameron polled a 10 point lead over Labour among men in that General Election. With women <br />
<strong>the</strong> gap was halved – to just five points. <br />
But what drives that gender difference And why is it that in subsequent years critics have branded <br />
<strong>the</strong> Prime Minister and his party as anti-‐women in both substance and style <br />
First came <strong>the</strong> claims that <strong>the</strong> axe of Government cuts was poised to fall disproportionately on <strong>the</strong> <br />
nation’s women. And <strong>the</strong>n that infamous “calm down, dear” moment – in which Mr Cameron <br />
emulated Michael Winner when addressing a female opposition MP. <br />
Those three words flung across <strong>the</strong> House of Commons’ chamber left <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister accused of <br />
being “sexist, patronising and insulting”. <br />
Key advisers have insisted to journalists that he is no such thing, describing him instead as a <br />
feminist. <br />
Yet one fact is undeniable: as Mr Cameron gears up for his penultimate party conference before <strong>the</strong> <br />
next General Election, he and his party’s so-‐called “women-‐problem” has yet to subside. With <br />
female voters, Labour is well ahead – ei<strong>the</strong>r because it is success<strong>full</strong>y attracting women, or because <br />
<strong>the</strong> parties of Government are driving <strong>the</strong>m away. <br />
Fresh research and analysis carried out by <strong>Mumsnet</strong> and Ipsos MORI, presented in this <strong>report</strong>, lays <br />
bare <strong>the</strong> scale of <strong>the</strong> challenge. <br />
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If things seemed bad in 2010 – <strong>the</strong>y are worse in 2013. This study reveals current levels of public <br />
opinion: <br />
• Mr Cameron’s party trails <strong>the</strong> Opposition by 13-‐points among female voters –three times <strong>the</strong> <br />
gap among men (four points). <br />
• 42% of women would back Labour compared to just 29% who would vote Conservative, <br />
according to Ipsos MORI’s aggregation of all interviews between January and July 2013. <br />
While <strong>the</strong> Conservative share among men (31%) is similar to that among women, men are <br />
less likely to back Labour (35%). <br />
• Among younger women – aged 18-‐34 – <strong>the</strong> gap widens to a hefty 25-‐point lead for Labour. <br />
Even with those aged 35 to 54 it is 21-‐points. <br />
• The opposition are also ahead among <strong>the</strong> groups of women <strong>the</strong> Conservatives might expect <br />
to attract: <strong>the</strong> most affluent women in top level professional and executive roles, those <br />
working in <strong>the</strong> private sector and households with mortgages. The fact is that men in <br />
similar circumstances are more likely to vote Tory <br />
• Moreover, six out of ten women are dissatisfied with <strong>the</strong> way Mr Cameron is doing his job as <br />
Prime Minister -‐ and even more are unhappy with <strong>the</strong> Government overall. <br />
• And when asked which party has <strong>the</strong> best policies on <strong>the</strong> economy, unemployment, <br />
education and health more women say Labour than <strong>the</strong> Conservatives. As do <strong>the</strong>y when <br />
asked which party best looks after women’s interests. <br />
Could ano<strong>the</strong>r result help explain what is going on Mr Cameron is seen as by far <strong>the</strong> most “out of <br />
touch” with ordinary people of all <strong>the</strong> political leaders among both men and women. <br />
But this is no time for Ed Miliband to begin <strong>the</strong> celebrations. The electoral boost is directed at his <br />
political party, and not him. Half of women describe <strong>the</strong>mselves as dissatisfied with <strong>the</strong> way Mr <br />
Miliband is doing his job as Labour leader. Only a third (33%) of women are satisfied with <strong>the</strong> <br />
Labour leader – in line with satisfaction with <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister. Women are also more likely to <br />
actually like Mr Cameron than Mr Miliband. Perhaps most significantly Mr Miliband is seen as <strong>the</strong> <br />
less “capable” of <strong>the</strong> two men among women as well as men. <br />
And <strong>the</strong> results of additional qualitative <strong>Mumsnet</strong> research, drawing on <strong>the</strong> in-‐depth views of <br />
around 100 women, may be uneasy reading for Mr Miliband. Time and again <strong>the</strong> Labour politician is <br />
criticised for a poor leadership style – or described as someone who has made little impression at <br />
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all. Could it be that his party’s lead is more about women turning away from <strong>the</strong> Tories and Lib <br />
Dems and less about a positive step towards Labour <br />
As for Nick Clegg, <strong>the</strong> Lib Dem Deputy Prime Minister, <strong>the</strong> data paints a difficult road ahead. His <br />
most acute problem is <strong>the</strong> loss of young voters, according to <strong>the</strong> analysis. But <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users who <br />
backed <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems are frustrated too, arguing that Mr Clegg has failed to maintain <strong>the</strong> one <br />
characteristic <strong>the</strong>y hold most dear in a party leader – integrity. <br />
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2 <br />
2015: THE BATTLE FOR THE <br />
FEMALE VOTE <br />
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2015: THE BATTLE FOR THE FEMALE VOTE <br />
<strong>Mumsnet</strong> users who took part in this study say <strong>the</strong>y deplore complacency among political leaders. <br />
Labour may be ahead in voting intentions, but <strong>the</strong> focus groups throw up an overwhelming sense <br />
that many remain undecided. <br />
If politicians draw one lesson from this research it should be that large swa<strong>the</strong>s of women are <br />
willing to listen and waiting to be convinced. <br />
In 2015, <strong>the</strong> female vote will be at <strong>the</strong> heart of <strong>the</strong> electoral battle once more. <br />
It is clear that all <strong>the</strong> parties know that. Why else has Labour has worked relentlessly to take <br />
advantage of what some call <strong>the</strong> Tories’ Achilles’ heel – its perception among female voters. <br />
The idea that Government cuts come down most harshly on women has become <strong>the</strong> party’s mantra <br />
– with Yvette Cooper determined to embed <strong>the</strong> idea into <strong>the</strong> mind of <strong>the</strong> electorate. Rachel Reeves <br />
– now a shadow Cabinet member – scored a political coup early on, forcing a U-‐turn by <br />
demonstrating how pension reforms would hit women in <strong>the</strong>ir late 50s most of all. <br />
Internal polling shows <strong>the</strong> Conservatives are aware of <strong>the</strong> problem. And it is not just about policies <br />
but delivery too. Mr Cameron’s slip in <strong>the</strong> Commons was followed by ano<strong>the</strong>r incident in which he <br />
described a backbench woman MP as ‘frustrated’. <br />
Attempts to counteract <strong>the</strong> negative image are underway. Tory MPs determined to reach out to <br />
women have set up a special forum, meant to act as a sounding board for ministers on how female <br />
voters might react to policy. Strategists, meanwhile, have worked up plans to emulate Bill Clinton’s <br />
mid-‐90s drive to win “soccer moms” by focusing on <strong>the</strong> issues <strong>the</strong>y most care about. Out came <br />
reforms on adoption, sexualisation of children and safety on <strong>the</strong> Internet. <br />
And as part of <strong>the</strong> drive <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister appointed a special adviser specifically tasked with <strong>the</strong> <br />
job of boosting female support. Her inbox has now widened to include education and childcare, an <br />
issue that has caused political wrangling between <strong>the</strong> Coalition partners. <br />
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It was this policy that Mr Clegg waded into recently in an attempt to boost his party’s standing with <br />
women. He blocked Tory attempts to reduce staff ratios claiming it would not cut childcare costs. <br />
Why Because <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems believe that pursuing family-‐friendly policies could be key to winning <br />
women back. <br />
These statistics also deliver a fur<strong>the</strong>r warning not to ignore <strong>the</strong> success of Nigel Farage’s UKIP party. <br />
Although more popular among men, he has attracted a small but significant following among <br />
women voters. <br />
This research pulls toge<strong>the</strong>r two key studies: a quantitative analysis of voting intentions split by <br />
gender and women’s views on political leaders carried out by Ipsos MORI; and qualitative data from <br />
five focus groups in which around 100 <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users provided in-‐depth answers and debate <br />
relating to <strong>the</strong> political leaders and parties. <br />
It provides a wealth of information that takes us into <strong>the</strong> minds of women up and down <strong>the</strong> <br />
country. It illustrates what issues female voters care most about; how <strong>the</strong>y feel <strong>the</strong> parties and <strong>the</strong>ir <br />
leaders are performing; and what it will take to persuade <strong>the</strong>m to deliver <strong>the</strong>ir vote in a particular <br />
direction. <br />
The analysis offered by <strong>the</strong> <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users who have taken part suggests <strong>the</strong>y are politically astute <br />
and motivated. These are <strong>the</strong> views of a wide range of women in very different circumstances: from <br />
single professionals to stay-‐at-‐home-‐mo<strong>the</strong>rs to lone parents and working mums all trying to <br />
balance <strong>the</strong> competing demands of <strong>the</strong>ir lives. <br />
Of course, <strong>the</strong>y are not one homogenous group who are planning to vote en masse. But <strong>the</strong>re are <br />
policies and issues that <strong>the</strong>y are more likely to care about and pay interest to. <br />
This is a chance for politicians to listen to <strong>the</strong>ir views. Over <strong>the</strong> next two years <strong>the</strong>re will be many <br />
opportunities to engage fur<strong>the</strong>r. It would be astute for <strong>the</strong>m to do so. <br />
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3 <br />
THE STATISTICS <br />
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THE STATISTICS <br />
This section of <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong> is based on analysis of Ipsos MORI polling research available in August <br />
2013, consisting mostly of Political Monitor polls conducted between 2010-‐2013. Where relevant, <br />
data on voting intentions and some o<strong>the</strong>r attitudes measured regularly (satisfaction with <strong>the</strong> <br />
leaders) has been aggregated over several months to allow for more robust measurement of sub-populations<br />
1 . Estimates of voting and turnout at <strong>the</strong> 2010 General Election are based on <strong>the</strong> <br />
aggregation of all Ipsos MORI polls during <strong>the</strong> campaign, weighted at regional level to <strong>the</strong> final <br />
outcome. <br />
1 – Overall voting trends, from 2010 to 2013 <br />
a) How women and men voted in 2010… <br />
1 The Ipsos MORI January-July 2013 Political Monitor aggregate combines all 7,084 interviews Ipsos<br />
MORI conducted by telephone with British adults 18+ between January and July 2013 on its monthly<br />
Political Monitor survey. Data are weighted to match <strong>the</strong> profile of <strong>the</strong> population. The aggregate data<br />
allows for better analysis by demographic groups due to <strong>the</strong> greater base sizes involved.<br />
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b) How women and men would vote now… <br />
The most dramatic shift since 2010 is not <strong>the</strong> Conservative’s share of women’s vote (which has <br />
fallen by seven points exactly <strong>the</strong> same as among men) but <strong>the</strong> gap between its position and that of <br />
Labour. This has been driven in part by Labour’s 11-‐point boost from 31% to 42%. <br />
In <strong>the</strong> 2010 General Election Mr Cameron had a five-‐point lead with <strong>the</strong> female vote. The <br />
aggregated data across all of Ipsos MORI’s interviews in 2013 suggests <strong>the</strong> Conservatives lag 13 <br />
points behind Labour in <strong>the</strong> polls among women. That is around three times <strong>the</strong> four-‐point gap for <br />
male voters, who are still more likely to back Mr Miliband’s party but by a much smaller margin. <br />
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2 – An age-‐old problem <br />
The Conservative gender issue becomes much starker when broken down by age. Less than a <br />
quarter (23%) of female voters under 34 say <strong>the</strong>y would back Mr Cameron’s party, while almost half <br />
(48%) would vote Labour. That is a massive 25-‐point lead for <strong>the</strong> opposition among young women. <br />
Even <strong>the</strong> middle, 35 to 54 years, group is strongly in favour of Mr Miliband’s party with a large 21-‐<br />
point gap. Once again, Labour’s advantage among men is much less pronounced across <strong>the</strong> board. <br />
These statistics will be extremely concerning for Tory strategists (even when considering <strong>the</strong> <br />
differential turnout between older and younger women 2 ) who will want to understand how <strong>the</strong>y <br />
can lure <strong>the</strong>se voters away from Labour. <br />
2 In 2010 turnout was: 39% among women aged 18-‐24, 54% for those aged 25-‐34, 67% for 35-‐54, <br />
73% for 55+ <br />
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3 – A different class <br />
Breaking down votes by social class again highlights a gender split. The Conservatives have a clear <br />
disadvantage with women across all socioeconomic groups, trailing by 10 points (31% to Labour’s <br />
41%) among female executives, professionals and managers (known as ABs), and 12-‐points for <br />
o<strong>the</strong>r supervisory and more junior managerial roles known as C1s (29% to 41%). That is a very <br />
different picture than for men in equivalent jobs. They are more likely to back Mr Cameron’s party. <br />
Lower skilled workers, <strong>the</strong> unemployed and those on benefits are all more likely to vote Labour <br />
whatever <strong>the</strong>ir sex. <br />
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4 – Public v Private <br />
Mr Cameron can take comfort in <strong>the</strong> fact that while all public sector workers – male and female – <br />
are more likely to back Labour, his party is neck-‐and-‐neck with private (and voluntary) sector male <br />
workers on 33%. Yet once again, Labour is well ahead with <strong>the</strong> same group of women. Although <br />
30% of <strong>the</strong>m say <strong>the</strong>y would vote Tory – a hefty 40% would back Mr Miliband’s party. That is a solid <br />
10-‐point lead for Labour with female private and voluntary sector workers. <br />
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5 – Home ownership <br />
Across all <strong>the</strong> analysis <strong>the</strong>re is only one sub-‐group of women who favour Mr Cameron’s party over <br />
Labour– and it is those who own <strong>the</strong>ir homes outright (ra<strong>the</strong>r than paying on a mortgage), while <br />
<strong>the</strong>ir male counterparts are split evenly between Labour and <strong>the</strong> Tories. The Conservatives are <br />
however ahead among male voters who hold a mortgage. With female mortgage holders, <strong>the</strong> <br />
Conservative share has slumped to 27% (from 34% in 2010). With Labour on 47% that gives Mr <br />
Miliband’s party a bold 20-‐point lead. That stretches to a massive 37-‐point for women who are <br />
renting. Just 15% of <strong>the</strong>m are prepared to vote Tory. <br />
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6 – The Switchers: those who have changed <strong>the</strong>ir vote since 2010 <br />
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These figures will make grim reading for Mr Clegg, whose party is by far <strong>the</strong> biggest loser. More <br />
than six out of ten women who backed <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems in 2010 say <strong>the</strong>y are no longer supporters (<strong>the</strong> <br />
same is true of men who voted for <strong>the</strong> Liberal Democrats in 2010). A fur<strong>the</strong>r one in eight still back <br />
<strong>the</strong> party but are not certain to vote. Just under half of those deserting <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems say <strong>the</strong>y now <br />
support Labour. <br />
In comparison seven in ten women who voted Conservative in 2010 still describe <strong>the</strong>mselves as <br />
supporters of <strong>the</strong> party, with 52% who say <strong>the</strong>y are certain to vote. Some good news for Mr <br />
Cameron, <strong>the</strong>n, but he still has to address why 28% of women who voted for <strong>the</strong> Conservatives in <br />
2010 are planning to switch – 10% opting for UKIP. And he faces a Labour party in a stronger <br />
position. Eight out of 10 of its 2010 female voters are still backing <strong>the</strong> party – and six out of ten <br />
saying <strong>the</strong>y are certain to vote. But opposition strategists will still want to understand why almost <br />
one in six say <strong>the</strong>y are no longer Labour. <br />
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7 –The political leaders <br />
These results will not please any of <strong>the</strong> leaders. Respondents were asked if <strong>the</strong>y were satisfied or <br />
dissatisfied with how each man was doing <strong>the</strong>ir job. A net satisfaction rating is reached by simply <br />
subtracting <strong>the</strong> proportion dissatisfied from those satisfied. <br />
The Prime Minister’s net satisfaction ratings are worse among both men and women than those of <br />
Mr Miliband. While women are equally satisfied with both leaders (33%) significantly more women <br />
are dissatisfied with <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister than his opposite number. <br />
Mr Clegg’s results are poor all round, with a net rating of -‐37 among women and -‐39 among men. <br />
The figures suggest that it could be that women are most unhappy with <strong>the</strong> Coalition Government <br />
overall. Asked to score <strong>the</strong> Government <strong>the</strong>y give -‐43, compared to men’s -‐32. But <strong>the</strong>se statistics <br />
also provide some insight into Labour’s leadership problems. While <strong>the</strong> party is polling well with <br />
women overall, Mr Miliband’s satisfaction rating is -‐14 among women (dropping to -‐19 for men). <br />
Can he lead <strong>the</strong> Labour party to victory with such a poor personal rating Certainly Margaret <br />
Thatcher, Tony Blair and even David Cameron, who failed to secure a majority, were polling better <br />
in <strong>the</strong> years before 1979, 1997 and 2010, according to historic Ipsos MORI data. <br />
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Moreover, Mr Miliband is seen as inferior to <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister in some key areas… <br />
It must be worrying for <strong>the</strong> Labour party that its leader is seen as significantly less capable than <strong>the</strong> <br />
Prime Minister by women and less able to understand or deal with <strong>the</strong> challenges facing Britain. A <br />
higher proportion of women – 43% -‐ say <strong>the</strong>y like <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister than <strong>the</strong> Labour leader who <br />
scores 34% along with Mr Clegg. <br />
They may take comfort in <strong>the</strong> fact that at least Mr Miliband is seen as more normal. Mr Cameron is <br />
described as <strong>the</strong> most out of touch leader by 46% of women and 49% of men. <br />
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8 – It’s <strong>the</strong> economy… stupid <br />
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If you are wondering why women are so unhappy with <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister and his Deputy <strong>the</strong>n it <br />
may be worth taking a closer look at <strong>the</strong> issue <strong>the</strong>y care most about: <strong>the</strong> economy. When asked, in <br />
March 2013, which political party had <strong>the</strong> best policies on managing <strong>the</strong> economy a clear gender <br />
divide emerges. Women back Labour, and men prefer <strong>the</strong> Conservatives. Could it be that <strong>the</strong> cuts <br />
agenda has turned away female voters from <strong>the</strong> ruling parties If so, Labour’s attack of this policy as <br />
hitting women hardest may be having more impact than Mr Cameron would like. <br />
Moreover, women rate Labour more highly on <strong>the</strong>ir second priority of unemployment, and give it a <br />
huge advantage on <strong>the</strong>ir third most important issue of healthcare. Even men give Mr Cameron’s <br />
party a very low score on <strong>the</strong> NHS – suggesting campaigns claiming that it is being dismantled have <br />
hit home. Even on <strong>the</strong> next priority for women – immigration – <strong>the</strong> two parties are tied, with <strong>the</strong> <br />
Tories only taking a lead on crime. And faced with <strong>the</strong> direct questions ‘which party would be best <br />
at looking after <strong>the</strong> needs of women’, male and female voters agree that it must be Labour. <br />
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9 -‐ Do <strong>the</strong> leaders care about women like you And how would <strong>the</strong>y manage on your budget <br />
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Half or less of women believe that <strong>the</strong> three leaders are interested in <strong>the</strong> concerns and opinions of <br />
ordinary women: 49% say Mr Miliband is interested, 45% say Mr Cameron is interested and 43% say <br />
<strong>the</strong> same of Mr Clegg. This is likely to concern Liberal Democrat party officials who have tried hard <br />
to place <strong>the</strong>ir leader at <strong>the</strong> heart of issues believed to be seen as important to women, such as <br />
childcare. <br />
As for whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> men could take on women's own household finances, no one receives a <br />
thumping endorsement. Mr Miliband is again slightly ahead but half of all women still believe he <br />
would not be able to do it well. This reflects <strong>the</strong> findings of <strong>the</strong> qualitative discussion with <strong>Mumsnet</strong> <br />
users set out in <strong>the</strong> next chapter that suggests women see problems with all of <strong>the</strong> leaders, and not <br />
one of <strong>the</strong>m has a significantly better image than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs. <br />
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4 <br />
BEHIND THE STATISTICS <br />
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BEHIND THE STATISTICS: MUMSNET USERS SPEAK UP <br />
To try to understand a little more about what it is that party political leaders are doing right and <br />
wrong, <strong>Mumsnet</strong> spoke in depth to around 100 of its members 3 . The women were divided into five <br />
focus groups based upon stated likely voting intention in a new election. There were Conservatives, <br />
Labour and Lib Dems as well as o<strong>the</strong>rs who voted for UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru, independents or were <br />
undecided. <br />
An undertone of dissatisfaction runs throughout <strong>the</strong> comments, with far more women expressing <br />
negative views of <strong>the</strong> party leaders than positive. Comments describe Government policy as <br />
unthinking (“his lack of compassion for women in caring roles is despicable”… “what he doesn’t get <br />
is me – <strong>the</strong> squeezed middle”… “I feel lost at <strong>the</strong> moment”). And behaviour is seen as unbecoming. <br />
A “gang of braying donkeys” is how one woman describes MPs in <strong>the</strong> House of Commons. <br />
Some of <strong>the</strong> women object to female voters being grouped toge<strong>the</strong>r, insisting that <strong>the</strong>ir interests <br />
are no different to men’s. O<strong>the</strong>rs concede that <strong>the</strong>y are more focused on those policies most <br />
relevant to <strong>the</strong>ir families – such as childcare, health and education. All three are highlighted as key <br />
policy areas by lots of <strong>the</strong> women – although <strong>the</strong> economy still tops <strong>the</strong> list. <br />
The <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users also launched into a debate about whe<strong>the</strong>r a politician’s background really <br />
matters. For many <strong>the</strong> answer is yes. David Cameron’s privileged past irks <strong>the</strong>m. Similar to <strong>the</strong> Ipsos <br />
MORI results, <strong>the</strong>y believe his journey from Eton to Oxford to Parliament leaves him “out of touch” <br />
with <strong>the</strong>ir lives. O<strong>the</strong>rs claim that his schooling should be irrelevant, adding that all political leaders <br />
inhabit a different planet. <br />
3 Please note <strong>the</strong> names of <strong>Mumsnet</strong> members in this <strong>report</strong> are not <strong>the</strong>ir real names in order to protect <br />
<strong>the</strong>ir identity. <br />
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So just what lies behind <strong>the</strong> Conservative’s women-‐problem <br />
The Tory switchers and child benefit… <br />
Lyn: “I don’t think he understands any issues relating to normal (not super rich) people, let alone <br />
women.” <br />
Tanya: He does “bugger all” for women like me. <br />
Carmen: “I think <strong>the</strong> Conservatives have regressed to <strong>the</strong> old-‐Etonian / Oxbridge elite style of <br />
leadership with <strong>the</strong> odd woman thrown into <strong>the</strong> mix.” <br />
Edith: “I’m not sure I’m going to vote next time.” <br />
Lyn, Tanya, Carmen and Edith are four <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users who voted Conservative in 2010 but are not <br />
sure <strong>the</strong>y can back Mr Cameron’s party again. Listening to <strong>the</strong>ir views provides a little insight into <br />
Mr Cameron’s predicament. <br />
It is perhaps worth noting that at least two of <strong>the</strong>se mo<strong>the</strong>rs have been put off <strong>the</strong> Conservatives by <br />
<strong>the</strong> same policy decision: to strip back on child benefit. Both Tanya and Carmen are stay-‐at-‐home-mo<strong>the</strong>rs<br />
who feel <strong>the</strong>ir role (which <strong>the</strong>y describe as “<strong>full</strong>-‐time unpaid work”) is undervalued. These <br />
women, whose partners earn above £50,000, lose out on at least some of <strong>the</strong> benefit while dual-workers<br />
earning up to £100,000 toge<strong>the</strong>r do not. <br />
Tanya, who is in her late 30s and lives with her family in <strong>the</strong> west Midlands, says she admires Mr <br />
Cameron’s courage to stick to his convictions but is “appalled” by <strong>the</strong> lack of thought before policy <br />
is put into place. <br />
Carmen goes fur<strong>the</strong>r saying all <strong>the</strong> party leaders are “completely dismissive” of women like her. “I <br />
am a professional, educated woman who has chosen to stay at home with my children who are <br />
small. The party leaders talk about respecting those parents who make <strong>the</strong> same choice but <strong>the</strong>n in <br />
<strong>the</strong> next moment turn around and completely dismiss <strong>the</strong>m. It seems you are only valued if you go <br />
to work.” <br />
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It seems a fairly common thread throughout <strong>the</strong> discussions. <br />
Out of touch… <br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r is that Mr Cameron is seen as out of touch with women’s lives. The Ipsos MORI data and <br />
<strong>the</strong> focus groups suggest that many agree with <strong>the</strong> view of Nadine Dorries – <strong>the</strong> outspoken and <br />
controversial backbench Tory MP – who described Mr Cameron and George Osborne as “two <br />
arrogant posh boys” who would not know <strong>the</strong> price of milk in a supermarket. Does that matter <br />
Carmen thinks that all <strong>the</strong> political leaders would have a “wake up call” if forced to live on her <br />
family’s budget while also trying to save up to buy a home in sou<strong>the</strong>ast England. The deposit for <br />
even a “modest house is ridiculous”, she says, leaving <strong>the</strong> family with funds for just one five day <br />
break a year in <strong>the</strong> UK so “no sunshine holiday”. “Never mind multiple trips a year,” she adds – even <br />
before <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister is pictured on his fourth holiday of <strong>the</strong> year. <br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs – who did not vote Conservative in 2010 – are more forthright about Mr Cameron’s <br />
background with some claiming he does not have “any understanding of life beyond his”. Rosie, a <br />
Labour supporter in her late 30s, argues that a good Prime Minister has had “some kind of a normal <br />
life”. Sharon, part-‐time worker in her 40s with two children in <strong>the</strong> west Midlands, agrees. “Rich, <br />
privileged, public school educated – what has he got in common with 99% of voters” Carla, who <br />
voted Lib Dem in 2010 and lives in <strong>the</strong> south-‐east with her twin sons, says he is “so deeply <br />
entrenched in <strong>the</strong> old Etonian mould” that he can’t relate to people like her. Josephine adds that as <br />
a nor<strong>the</strong>rn, working class mo<strong>the</strong>r in <strong>the</strong> public sector <strong>the</strong>ir worlds could not be fur<strong>the</strong>r apart. <br />
But o<strong>the</strong>rs disagree. It should be “irrelevant” according to some. Gemma, a Conservative voter, <br />
believes <strong>the</strong> comments are based on “envy” saying she doesn’t care where <strong>the</strong> leaders went to <br />
school. In fact, ano<strong>the</strong>r old-‐Etonian, <strong>the</strong> London Mayor Boris Johnson, receives <strong>the</strong> support of more <br />
than one respondent as a potential future party leader. And o<strong>the</strong>rs point out that Mr Clegg has a <br />
similarly privileged background – while Mr Miliband’s state schooling hardly means he has <br />
experienced financial struggles through his life. <br />
Crystal calls on all <strong>the</strong> leaders to attempt to live on <strong>the</strong> £65 a week that she survives on. “If anyone <br />
would give it a go for a year – I’d vote for <strong>the</strong>m!” <br />
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Opposed to austerity… <br />
The o<strong>the</strong>r issue that has upset some mo<strong>the</strong>rs is <strong>the</strong> cuts. And while welfare is highlighted as an <br />
issue that many feel needs reform, fears are expressed by women about <strong>the</strong> Coalition playing <br />
different groups off against each o<strong>the</strong>r. More than one woman believes that those on benefits are <br />
being unfairly demonised. <br />
Nancy, a woman in her late 20s living in <strong>the</strong> south-‐east, says she voted Conservative in 2005 <br />
because as a married mo<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> party’s policies suited her. “By 2010 I was a single parent in social <br />
housing” and Labour seemed <strong>the</strong> right choice because of apparent Tory dismissal of women like <br />
her. Now – she just isn’t sure. <br />
Monica is in her early 30s with three children, including one with special needs. She is a stay-‐at-home-‐mo<strong>the</strong>r<br />
with a family income between £20,000 and £35,000. She believes Mr Cameron has <br />
“betrayed” parents of disabled children. “He said he understood; he said he had been <strong>the</strong>re; he said <br />
he’d look after us; he lied.” <br />
Mr Cameron can take heart, however, from <strong>the</strong> more positive response from <strong>Mumsnet</strong> users who <br />
are planning to back his party. Liz believes he is “impressive” in Prime Minister’s Questions, <br />
“arrogant, even, but not misplaced”. <br />
But not everyone enjoys <strong>the</strong> House of Commons weekly fracas. <br />
Commons behaviour <br />
Olivia, a former Labour voter in her 40s who is now undecided, says she despairs at <strong>the</strong> “old boys <br />
club” that gets underway in <strong>the</strong> House of Commons each week. She describes it as a “wasteland” as <br />
far as women are concerned because she cannot think of anything worse than being a female in <br />
that environment. Mr Cameron’s “calm down, dear” comments have “destroyed any credibility he <br />
had with respect to women”, she adds. <br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs feel that <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister was joking. But <strong>the</strong>re is a clear agreement that <strong>the</strong> overall tone <br />
of <strong>the</strong> Commons is unpleasant. <br />
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Ruby – a former Lib Dem voter – says <strong>the</strong> behaviour would not be acceptable in any o<strong>the</strong>r form of <br />
employment. “Heck, even a class of very small children would not be allowed to heckle or ridicule <br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r in that way our politicians carry on.” <br />
Meanwhile, Mr Cameron is not <strong>the</strong> only leader to get a pounding. <br />
Labour’s leadership woes <br />
A hesitant endorsement… <br />
Charlotte: “He [Ed Miliband] should try to get more women on board as he does sometimes speak <br />
sense.” <br />
Toni: “Out of <strong>the</strong> three I think he has slightly more understanding but I’m not sure he truly gets it.” <br />
Josephine: “I think he will have a better understanding of how <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r half live.” <br />
Nancy: “He seems to be <strong>the</strong> most open-‐minded.” <br />
Barbara: “I think Ed Miliband is probably a feminist.” <br />
It may be worrying for Mr Miliband that in detailed responses by more than 100 women including a <br />
number of Labour supporters those are <strong>the</strong> five most positive comments about him. <br />
Some credit him as <strong>the</strong> most “normal” of <strong>the</strong> three leaders – in line with <strong>the</strong> Ipsos MORI data -‐ but <br />
far more are put off by his style, dislike <strong>the</strong> fact that he took on his own bro<strong>the</strong>r to reach <strong>the</strong> <br />
position or – perhaps most worryingly – say <strong>the</strong>y know nothing about him at all. <br />
An all out rejection… <br />
The worst comments, unsurprisingly, come from Conservative supporters like Jasmine who calls him <br />
“hard to like and weak at times”. She would have preferred to see his bro<strong>the</strong>r, David, in charge, or a <br />
younger MP like Chuka Umunna. “Just can’t imagine Ed and Ed running <strong>the</strong> country.” <br />
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Sophie goes fur<strong>the</strong>r saying “…I don’t think <strong>the</strong>y have had a decent family policy for years”. Liz says <br />
he is ill equipped to deal with <strong>the</strong> barrage of boos he faces in <strong>the</strong> House of Commons that “conjures <br />
up images of playground bullying”. “Creepy”, “faceless” and “not a contender” are o<strong>the</strong>r comments. <br />
A number complain that <strong>the</strong>y only ever hear <strong>the</strong> Labour leader complaining and criticising instead of <br />
presenting alternative policies. “Honestly, we could have an act-‐of-‐God disaster and he would find a <br />
way of making it Cameron’s fault,” says Liz. <br />
Even Labour supporters are uncharitable. <br />
Maddie says she voted Labour in 2010 but doesn’t want to join <strong>the</strong> party now in case “I become a <br />
membership statistic that appears to endorse <strong>the</strong> leadership”. She thinks every sound bite sounds <br />
like it has been prepared by a team of policy wonks. “Everything he says feels like it has been <br />
hashed over by a committee to come up with a bollocks word like pre-‐distribution that will make no <br />
sense to <strong>the</strong> average voter.” <br />
She says <strong>the</strong> whole thing makes her think of <strong>the</strong> satire, <strong>the</strong> Thick of It, with “10 Ollie Reeders” <br />
agonising over every <strong>full</strong> stop. <br />
Tammy says she will stay loyal to Labour “despite <strong>the</strong> wrong Miliband taking centre stage”. <br />
Ed who <br />
And <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong>re are those who find him invisible: <br />
Nadia, “I cannot get any sort of feel for him” <br />
Deirdre, “he doesn’t raise his voice enough” <br />
Amy, “he is <strong>the</strong> one I should like <strong>the</strong> most but I barely know him” <br />
Leah, “I struggle to distinguish between him and his bro<strong>the</strong>r” <br />
Elizabeth, “I have no idea what he stands for” <br />
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Tracy, “who even is he” <br />
And on and on… <br />
Yes Labour are doing well with women according to <strong>the</strong> headline statistics, but <strong>the</strong>re is an <br />
underlying issue with <strong>the</strong> leader that needs to be addressed. Many think he lacks charisma – a <br />
characteristic <strong>the</strong>y think is important in a party leader and crucial in a Prime Minister. Too many feel <br />
<strong>the</strong>y can’t see Mr Miliband in that key position. <br />
The comments would suggest that some of Labour’s boost in <strong>the</strong> polls is an anti-‐Tory and anti-‐Lib <br />
Dem vote instead of a more positive decision in favour of <strong>the</strong> party. Many say that all <strong>the</strong> party <br />
leaders fail to understand <strong>the</strong> issues facing women like <strong>the</strong>m. And although <strong>the</strong>y think Labour is <br />
most likely to look after <strong>the</strong> interests of women, <strong>the</strong>y can’t name <strong>the</strong> policies through which <strong>the</strong> <br />
party will be able to do that. However, many do praise Mr Miliband for boosting <strong>the</strong> female <br />
presence in his shadow cabinet. And <strong>the</strong>y compare it with <strong>the</strong> poor efforts by Mr Cameron and Mr <br />
Clegg – with more than one saying <strong>the</strong>y cannot name a single female Lib Dem MP. <br />
And <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems… <br />
Mr Clegg’s party fares poorly in both <strong>the</strong> polling and <strong>the</strong> focus groups. Many of <strong>the</strong> women taking <br />
part backed <strong>the</strong> Lib Dems in 2010 but feel betrayed. They say Mr Clegg persuaded <strong>the</strong>m brilliantly in <br />
<strong>the</strong> televised leaders’ debates that took place ahead of <strong>the</strong> elections. “Confident speeches, recalling <br />
<strong>the</strong> names of questioners, great intonation and authoritative body language,” says Liz. But she and <br />
o<strong>the</strong>rs now believe <strong>the</strong> party put forward a manifesto that was financially impossible to see <br />
through. <br />
A typically harsh view is expressed by Monica, who describes <strong>the</strong> Lib Dem leader as a “snake in <strong>the</strong> <br />
grass [who] sacrificed his integrity to get a place in <strong>the</strong> leadership”. His party will suffer as a result, <br />
she adds. <br />
Some say <strong>the</strong>y believe Mr Clegg did <strong>the</strong> best he did in a difficult position. “He was forced into that <br />
tiny opening between a rock and a hard place,” says Caz, insisting he had no choice on tuition fees. <br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs are unsympa<strong>the</strong>tic. “Damaged goods in terms of integrity,” says Morwenna. <br />
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They can manage <strong>the</strong> economy … but what about your household budget <br />
Women were asked how each leader might cope with <strong>the</strong>ir household finances. The answers were <br />
mixed, with a few saying <strong>the</strong>y would all cope fine. The Tory’s message of Labour profligacy had <br />
worked on some, who claimed Mr Miliband would splurge <strong>the</strong> money on day one and <strong>the</strong>n turn to <br />
payday loans. <br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs thought Mr Cameron would be shocked by <strong>the</strong>ir daily struggles. “He might have to give up <br />
all his holidays to Ibiza and go on £9.50 trips to Skegness like we’ve had to” says Chris. Food <br />
shopping might bring a “reality check” for all <strong>the</strong> leaders, according to Zoe. <br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs agree. “The problem is that whatever <strong>the</strong>ir experiences once <strong>the</strong>y get into Government <strong>the</strong>y <br />
have a salary and lifestyle that is hugely different to that which most people in <strong>the</strong> country have,” <br />
says Crystal. It is inevitable that <strong>the</strong>y become out of touch, she argues. <br />
Syria <br />
We asked <strong>the</strong> women taking part in <strong>the</strong> focus groups some additional questions on Syria. They are <br />
largely united in a reluctance to see military strikes in Syria. A typical comment is "I don't know how <br />
we can sit by and watch while awful things happen... but I'm not sure starting ano<strong>the</strong>r war is <strong>the</strong> <br />
answer ei<strong>the</strong>r". <br />
Both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband gain credit. Even Labour supporters admit <strong>the</strong>y appreciate <strong>the</strong> <br />
Prime Minister taking <strong>the</strong> issue to a vote in <strong>the</strong> House of Commons. "As much as I despise Cameron, <br />
I have to say he has gone up in my estimation and I respect him for putting <strong>the</strong> decision to <strong>the</strong> <br />
vote," says one. <br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r, who backs <strong>the</strong> Tories, says her views are closest to Mr Miliband's because she is against <br />
"going to war on 'hearsay'." <br />
There is no real consensus about who showed <strong>the</strong> best leadership during <strong>the</strong> debate about Syria. <br />
Some respondents credit both men. O<strong>the</strong>rs feel that nei<strong>the</strong>r did <strong>the</strong> right thing. One woman was <br />
against <strong>the</strong> strikes but thought <strong>the</strong> Prime Minister too quickly ruled out any action in any <br />
circumstances after losing <strong>the</strong> vote. "No one was asking for him to say that. I don't think anyone's <br />
covered <strong>the</strong>mselves in glory here." <br />
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Towards <strong>the</strong> election <br />
So what do women want as we edge towards 2015 Primarily, it seems, for <strong>the</strong>ir political leaders to <br />
comprehend and respond to <strong>the</strong> day-‐to-‐day struggles <strong>the</strong>y face. <br />
Mr Cameron, Mr Clegg and Mr Miliband may not be able to erase <strong>the</strong>ir upbringings but can <strong>the</strong>y <br />
convince women voters that <strong>the</strong>y can relate to a typical British family feeling <strong>the</strong> strain of <strong>the</strong> <br />
recession The women questioned speak of rising food and gas bills, <strong>the</strong> sacrifice of holidays <br />
abroad, <strong>the</strong> challenges of securing childcare and <strong>the</strong> constant demands to balance family and work <br />
life. Many accept that in <strong>the</strong> current economic climate tough decisions are inevitable, but can those <br />
decisions be compassionate and fair <br />
The polls show that Labour has a strong lead among female voters overall, as well as on <strong>the</strong> key <br />
territories of <strong>the</strong> economy, unemployment, education and health. <br />
So Mr Cameron has a significant task on his hands if he’s to close <strong>the</strong> gap and win <strong>the</strong> hearts and <br />
minds of British women. On <strong>the</strong> plus side for him, many women remain as yet unconvinced by Ed <br />
Miliband’s abilities. With 20 months to go, it’s all to play for. <br />
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About Ipsos MORI’s Social Research Institute <br />
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