Digital Recruitment: The Hottest Markets in 2020 - Evenbase

Digital Recruitment
The Hottest Markets in 2020

2 Contents
Introduction 3
Introduction
Contents
3 Introduction
4 The hottest markets in 2020
The top 10 countries to watch as digital recruitment evolves
6 Size matters
They’re all getting bigger, but some markets will grow faster than others
8 Pay perspectives
High wages drive competition, often in unexpected places
10 Tapping into talent
Employment dynamics are changing rapidly, but real talent is scarce
12 Online opportunities
Everyone’s moving to the web, but some countries are blazing ahead
14 An appetite for apps
Smartphones are in the ascendancy, especially among younger workers
16 The people network
Social media slowly but surely comes of age in the recruitment world
18 The state of agencies
Competition is getting fiercer, but significant new markets are emerging
19 Summary
If globalisation has been one of the
key trends of the 21st century, it has
also been one of the most potentially
misleading ones. National boundaries
may indeed have become more
porous in the last decade, but many
cultural barriers remain; a fact that
many businesses are discovering to their
cost as they attempt to deploy truly
global strategies.
Recruitment is no exception. The
world’s largest and newly accessible
labour markets may look immensely
appealing from the outside, but closer
inspection reveals that all is not
necessarily what it appears.
Globalisation may be levelling some
playing fields, but national identities
remain complex; the models that work
in Belgium will probably not work in
Brazil. Languages, legal and regulatory
environments, social and political
instability and some deeply entrenched
cultural elements all conspire to make
global strategies a lot harder to
implement than they may look at first
glance. The rewards for getting them
right are clearly substantial; but the
Globalisation levels some
playing fields, but national
identities remain complex –
models that work in Belgium will
probably not work in Brazil
penalties for getting them wrong will be
harsh, and perhaps permanent.
With these factors in mind, Evenbase
commissioned an in-depth survey to
compare and contrast the recruitment
markets in 12 countries. We looked at
many different variables that affect the
receptiveness of a market to digital
recruitment, from raw GDP growth
potential to earnings trends, cultural
phenomena, mobile and social internet
usage and much more.
On their own, these metrics are
limited in their value. Viewed as a
whole, though, they provide a platform
for fresh thinking and conversations
around digital recruitment, and a new
lens through which to view the global
recruitment industry. We present a
snapshot of the findings here to inspire
further debate and discussion.
Keith Potts
CEO, Evenbase
March 2013

4 Hot markets
Hot markets 5
1.
Brazil
Young,
confident, ambitious and digitally innovative,
with growth potential on many levels
2. India
Sheer
economic growth potential makes India an
exceptionally interesting market. Only serious
development imbalances keep it from the top slot
The hottest markets in 2020
9
3.
China
Growth performance and destiny as the world’s
largest
economy make it attractive, but significant
political and cultural challenges remain
4. US
Still a dynamic, innovative economic powerhouse
anddi
driver of change in digital recruitment, and
expected e to stay that way over the next decade
5. Australia
Another confident and ambitious AsiaPac country,
with skill shortage issues making it ripe for innova-
tionin in digital recruitment
4
7
10
1
10
8
2
3
6
5
6.
Japan
A massive, s technologically innovative economy,
undergoing cultural change after years of stagnation
7. Canada
a
Small l in
size but fast to adopt new ideas, with a
range of unique opportunities for the introduction of
new digital recruitment offerings
8. Germany
The European economic powerhouse for the
foreseeable future, undergoing significant labour
market
changes
9.
Russia
A wild card, beset by deep political and economic
problems but with a range of opportunities to
unlock
its untapped potential
10.
= Mexico / UK
Mexico
is another wild card – highly problematic at
present, but with the potential to suddenly take off
and become the new Brazil. The UK has significant
economic growth issues but has always been one
ofth
the world’s largest recruitment markets
Analysis criteria
The 2020 Hot Markets list is a
summary of the most interesting
markets to watch as digital
recruitment evolves towards the
year 2020. Created in response to
a great many queries and
conversations about global
markets with partners and
customers over the last few years,
the list is not a predictive or
definitive one. Instead, it is an
attempt by Evenbase to provide
some fresh thinking about the
factors and forces that will really
shape the digital recruitment
industry in the next few years.
Many factors were considered
in the creation of this list. Some of
them are familiar ones, based on
the traditional industry metrics
that have governed the evolution
of recruitment trends over the last
two decades. Others are less
tangible but equally critical ones
based on culture, language and
regulation, among much else. The
result is a list that Evenbase
believes is based on a complete
view of the real trends underlying
global recruitment, not just
another conventional view based
on one-dimensional data. The
factors we considered in creating
the Hot Markets List include:
● Growth potential, in terms of
the economy itself, but also
with particular reference to
underpenetrated niches and
high marginal revenue potential
● Size of labour pool, based on
working-age population
● Innovation potential, including
factors such as social media
and recruiting
● Advertising revenue potential,
based on an index measuring
the cost of placing online ads
across international markets
● Ease of hiring, summarising
the difficulty of filling jobs by
country
● Ease of entry, taking into
account language and cultural
barriers, the regulatory/legal
environment, and the risk of
political or social instability.
Note that this analysis is from
the perspective of a Western
business; views of the same
data may be interpreted
differently in other regions.

6 Market growth
Market growth 7
Size matters
Conventional macro-economic
factors will clearly dictate many
domestic growth trends in the global
recruitment markets. GDP growth, in
particular, remains a key indicator for
strong recruitment markets, generating
churn and increasing hiring difficulties.
China is clearly the player to watch
here. Its GDP growth will far exceed that
of most other nations in the next
decade or so and its growth potential is
clearly vast, not least because of its
immature recruitment industry. But
cultural, language and regulatory
barriers are significant, and potential
investors or market entrants are likely to
benefit from partnerships rather than a
solo approach in the short term. In other
countries such as Mexico and Russia,
economic growth forecasts are good
but operational risk is relatively high, a
trade-off that many businesses will be
reluctant to make.
in the intermediated recruitment
markets, both traditional and digital.
Some of those markets are already
extremely crowded, making many of
these decisions much easier. In Japan,
for example, the number of
employment agency branches is more
than three times that of its nearest
competitor - 83,000 compared to 26,000
in the USA (and just 16 in Greece).
Opportunity knocks
While few other territories show such
extremes of competitiveness, most
markets in Europe and the OECD
countries remain challenging for growth
and expansion. Further afield, more
Real GDP growth
5.0
4.0
3.0
%
2.0
1.0
2010-15
Japan
Germany
US
2016-26
Mexico
France
Canada
UK
Euro Area OECD
Source: OECD Economic Outlook Volume 2011/1
significant opportunities exist. In Brazil,
for example, only 1.1% of the total
workforce is hired through agencies,
revealing considerable potential for
growth in this sector.
Excellent prospects
Brazil and India may be safer bets, both
showing excellent prospects despite
very different cultural and regulatory
environments, skill levels and industry
strengths. Both countries rate highly for
growth potential, with GDP growth
forecasts exceeding 10% over the next
five to ten years.
GDP alone only tells part of the story,
however. Much scope exists for growth
Snapshot
● Only 1.1% of Brazilians are engaged via
agencies
● Mexico’s real GDP growth is forecast to be
around twice that of the Eurozone countries
between 2010 and 2026
● By 2025, China will account for 20% of the
world’s output

8 Wages
Wages 9
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Index of hourly wages, 2011 (US$ weighted, US = 100)
US
Mexico Brazil East Asia (excl. Japan)
UK
Japan
Australia
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011
Pay perspectives
Understanding how workers are
compensated is clearly vital in any
market. High wages and high wage
in this respect. Brazilian executives in
Sao Paolo are among the most highly
paid in the world, for example, often
around $59,000 USD, while imported
talent earns more than $138,000 USD.
The story is rather different at the other
end of the scale, particularly in
countries with strong manufacturing
hourly earnings upwards, with wages at
state-owned employers around 30%
higher than the average (and those at
privately owned companies
correspondingly lower).
growth are generally beneficial for the
earning more than their counterparts in
industries. In China, currently the world’s
Their wages are still less than half of
recruitment industry, not least in the
New York or Hong Kong. A Brazilian CFO
manufacturing powerhouse, the 2008
those in Mexico, however, where nearly
digital sector. These factors create
with 12 or more years experience can
Labour Law has slowly forced average
30% of workers are now part of the
competition for employees and ensure
expect to earn between $400,000 and
informal labour force rather than in
that average costs per hire will also be
high, creating significant opportunities
for digital recruitment.
A close examination of international
markets reveals some important trends
$500,000 USD, compared to around
$125,000 in the USA. Meanwhile, workers
in the Russian oil and gas industries get
paid according to where they come
from. Native workers get paid salaries of
Brazilian executives in Sao
Paolo are among the most highly
paid in the world, often earning
more than their counterparts in
New York or Hong Kong
formal employment and manufacturing
workers are paid among the world’s
lowest hourly rates; not a great
indicator for digital recruitment
potential.

10 Employment dynamics
Employment dynamics 11
Tapping into talent
Unemployment levels clearly have a
substantial impact on recruitment
businesses. More people out of work
inevitably means more competition,
often for fewer jobs. Countries such as
Mexico, where unemployment rates are
around half of those in Eurozone
countries, may therefore seem more
attractive prospects than countries
where high unemployment levels are
forecast.
There are many other domestic
employment dynamics to consider.
Brazil, for example, widely seen as a
market with great potential, is one of
the most difficult countries in the world
to fill a job, where a mismatch between
supply and demand means that 71% of
employers have trouble finding suitable
employees. This is more than twice the
global average of 34%, and much
higher than other countries such as
China and India to which it is often
compared. Those countries have
problems of their own, however; in
India, there are over a million vacancies
for the country’s most prestigious
government jobs, including nearly
700,000 vacancies in the police and
defence forces. At the same time, its
much-vaunted IT industry is also
struggling to fill vacancies in an
extremely competitive market for
suitably qualified talent.
Filling up
It’s worth noting that trends like these
are not restricted to developing
markets. In Australia, for example, it
takes an average of 66 days to fill
science and engineering jobs, more
than twice as long as it takes to fill IT
jobs. Meanwhile, the Canadian
petroleum industry is facing a severe
shortage of workers in the coming
decade, with as many as 130,000 new
Percentage of employers having trouble filling jobs, by country
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
Japan Brazil Australia US India Mexico
Germany France Canada China UK
hires potentially needed if oil and gas
prices stay high.
Territories with labour shortages such
as those seen in these examples are
clearly ripe for potential digital
recruitment solutions. So too are
countries with niche opportunities, such
as Russia’s oil and gas industries. As
always, though, such potential must be
balanced against other factors; in
particular the future trends that will
govern a country’s recruitment industry.
In China, a third of the workforce will
retire in the next 20 years and nearly a
quarter of the working population will
Source: Manpowergroup Talent Shortage Survey 2012
be over 65 by 2030 (compared to just
12% in India); a fact which will shape
many recruitment decisions over the
next decade.
Snapshot
● A third of the Chinese workforce will
retire in the next 20 years
● 71% of Brazilian employers have
trouble filling jobs
● There are over a million vacancies for
government jobs in India

12 Online recruitment
Online recruitment 13
Online
opportunities
Wherever you are in the world, job
boards and other online
recruitment tools matter. Four out of ten
hires made by in-house recruiters in
Australia come from job boards; in
India, job boards comfortably outstrip
other recruitment channels, accounting
for 50% more hires than either
recruitment agencies or direct/word-ofmouth
references.
Russian revolution
Some countries clearly have a greater
appetite for online services and content
than others. Canadians are among the
most avid internet consumers in the
world, spending nearly double the
amount of time online than the world
average and 13% more than the US. On
average Canadians spend the same
amount of time online as they do
watching TV, and thus represent a clear
target for online recruitment
development activity. Nonetheless,
potential digital entrants must consider
that such mature markets offer little
opportunity for additional user growth
and migration from other channels.
Further east, European online trends
are inevitably complex ones. In 2011,
Russia overtook Germany as the
European territory with the highest
number of unique visitors to websites –
over 50m, comfortably ahead of
France (42 million) and the UK (37
million). Whether that makes it a good
place to do good online business is
another matter. Advertising on one
leading job board costs well over 20
times more in Germany than it does in
Russia (and around five times more than
in the US), a factor that will make
anyone looking for immediate revenue
streams think hard before investing
there.
Canadians spend nearly
double the amount of time online
than the world average, and 13%
more than the US
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
Boosting the brand
Beyond the job ads themselves,
countries also differ in their levels of
engagement with other online tools.
Businesses in Germany, Australia and
Canada are heavy users of branding
tools and techniques that help boost
their image as good employers, for
example, with percentage usage levels
in the high 30s.
In Brazil, by contrast, such tools are in
use by only 5% of companies, with only
another 5% planning to use them in the
future. Indeed, many Brazilian
companies eschew online activity
altogether; one in four of them get
more than 30% of their hires from
employee referrals, compared to just
one in 20 companies in France.
European internet usage by country, June 2012
(millions of unique visitors)
Russian Federation Germany France UK
Italy Netherlands Sweden Ireland
Source: comScore MMX

14 Mobile
Mobile 15
An appetite for apps
Of all the global trends affecting the
business world, smartphone
adoption – and the extraordinary
change it is catalysing across sectors
and disciplines – is arguably the most
significant. Understanding ownership
and usage patterns is particularly vital
for recruitment professionals, who are
currently wrestling with a complex mix
of online and offline channels for
reaching candidates.
Despite the global upwelling in
smartphone usage, making sense of
mobile trends is harder than it looks.
Australia has the second-highest
smartphone penetration in the world
behind Singapore, and use more apps
than Americans or Britons. At the end of
2012, it was estimated that more than
50% of Australian adults were using
smartphones. But familiarity with mobile
devices is no guarantee of overall
digital literacy. Australia’s adoption of
social media for recruitment, for
example, is significantly slower than in
other major recruitment markets (see
page 12).
In terms of usage, UK consumers are
ahead of the pack when it comes to
downloading data on their mobiles and
50
40
% 30
20
10
Age demographics of smartphone users, by country
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+
US UK France Germany Japan
Source: Google Global Smartphone Users survey, February 2012
tablets. In late 2012, Ofcom reported
that the average UK mobile connection
used 424 megabytes of data in
December 2011 – more than any other
major country, pushing long-time leader
Japan into second place and the US
into sixth. Elsewhere in the world, it’s also
worth noting that Indian mobile internet
usage exceeded desktop traffic for the
first time in May 2012 – a clear
indication of the massive potential of
the Indian market.
Digital demographics
Perhaps the most important metrics in
the smartphone world relate to the
demographics of the users themselves,
which are remarkably consistent across
countries. Everywhere you look, the
highest percentage of smartphone
users are between 25 and 34 years old,
a demographic that creates enormous
potential opportunities for digital
business to create innovative mobile
tools and recruitment strategies.
Snapshot
● Australians use more smartphone
apps than Americans or Britons
● Indian mobile internet usage
exceeded desktop traffic for the first
time in May 2012
● The 25-34 age group is consistently the
largest group of smartphone users
across countries

16 Social media
Social media 17
not yet be a hotbed of social media
activity, but it is notable that 25% of
agency-hired workers there are under
21 – a good place, perhaps, to start
looking for new digital opportunities.
Some unexpected trends may turn
out to be important ones in some
countries. Networking is a fundamental
aspect of Chinese culture, for example,
and business networking thus has a lot
of potential. While Facebook and
Twitter are banned, LinkedIn is not, and
there are already several other
professional social networks such as
Tianji in operation.
The people network
Whatever the social media mavens
may tell us, the majority of job
seekers are still not using social networks
as a primary tool for finding work. In
Australia, 86% of people don’t use
social media sites at all for job hunting.
For businesses, however, they are
establishing themselves as important
tools. In the US, where professional
social networking is relatively wellestablished,
nearly one in three
recruiters consider social networks a
major source of hires. Elsewhere,
though, they remain a lower priority,
even in markets where other
technologies such as mobile internet
are growing rapidly.
Social networks are not widely used
by Brazilian companies, for example,
with only 14% considering it a major
source of hires despite mobile surfing
growing at almost 100% a year from
2010-11. In France, the number rating
social networks as major sources of hires
is just 13%, despite the fact that 91% of
recruiters say that they use LinkedIn.
Overall, though, underlying social
recruitment trends are upward across
most countries, especially those where
younger people are already wellconnected
socially via technology.
Elsewhere, transitions to digital
recruitment may take longer. Brazil may
Some unexpected trends may
turn out to be important ones
for recruiters considering social
media strategies
Use of social networking for recruitment, by country (%)
100
90
80 27 29
70
60
% 50 61 59
40
30
20
10
Major source of hires Minor source of hires
23
18 13 22
14
13
65
60 62
60 59
55
Canada US Germany India Australia UK Brazil China
Source: LinkedIn Global Recruiting Trends survey, 2011

18 Agency trends
Summary 19
The state of agencies
One key area of
interest for
recruitment
organisations in the
Agency worker age demographics, by country (%)
50
40
coming years is the
30
agency market, an %
increasingly
important part of the
20
10
overall global
recruitment mix. Lots
< 21 21-25 26-30 31-45 >45
of agencies means a
China France US Germany
big customer base
Japan Mexico Brazil
for a range of digital
Source: Eurociett global agency work industry survey, 2012
recruitment offerings;
and high levels of agency
intermediation ensure that there is a lot
of money being spent with agencies,
which can potentially be captured by
digital alternatives.
Japan leads the world in agency
market saturation, but competition is
also fierce in Europe. Average
temporary placements in Germany are
substantially longer than in other
Eurozone (and most other) countries, for
example, close to those in Japan. At
agency workers are under 21 – fully 15%
more than in Mexico, next in the table
of countries studied in this report. This
relatively large percentage illustrates a
potential opportunity to reach a
significant proportion of the workforce
via social recruiting methods, which
typically work most effectively among
younger demographics; a big
difference from countries such as the
USA, where more than two-thirds of the
workforce is over 30.
the same time, the great majority of
agency workers in Germany and
France – both countries with a strong Snapshot
industrial presence – are men, in
contrast to service-oriented markets
such as Australia and Japan where
women dominate the mix.
Other countries have less well-known
● Japan is the world’s most saturated
agency market, with 83,000 branches
● 70% of agency workers in France and
Germany are male
stories to tell. In Brazil, a quarter of
Summary
Even the most cursory glance at the
highlights from this report make one
thing very clear; employers and
recruiters are going to need some new
ideas as they consider their move into
global markets. Many apparently
attractive traditional markets are going
to be very hard places to do business
over the next decade; a fact which will
force the recruitment sector to focus on
new models in new places based on
new metrics, not just find ways to
maintain old revenue streams.
Our Hot Markets list is just one view of
the way that the digital recruitment
landscape will evolve, but its central
message is a universally important one.
Making good decisions about where
and how to grow your business will
require some innovative thinking, and
not a little courage. China may be the
business world’s current favourite target,
but it may not be an ideal place for a
first solo foray into the global
marketplace. Language barriers are
high, wages are rising and local cultural
phenomena are hard to assimilate into
Western models. Will copies of existing
digital recruitment models transfer
directly in markets like these, or will new
models spring up That question must
be front of mind for anyone looking to
develop new digital businesses there.
For many European and North
American businesses looking to expand
into the vast Asian markets, India may
be a smarter bet in the short term
thanks to better language
compatibility, a more familiar focus on
service industries and a less restrictive
regulatory landscape. And so it goes
on; ideas like these permeate all the
way through the global recruitment
markets, and the most successful global
employers and recruiters will be well
versed in the trends we’ve noted in this
report. Instead of reacting to
conventional metrics and meta-trends,
they will take full account of people,
culture and technology; and they will
tailor new models accordingly, not
simply adapt to old ones. At Evenbase,
we are already doing just that; and we
look forward to helping our business
partners do the same.

About this report
This report is based on research conducted by MBA & Company in late 2012. Commissioned
by Evenbase, it was a combination of primary research through interviews with subject
matter experts and extensive secondary research.
This snapshot of findings is not definitive, and provides just one view of the way the digital
recruitment landscape will evolve. Our intent is to provide a fresh perspective on the forces
that will shape the industry in the next five to ten years. We hope you’ll share your views and
help us continue the debate.
Evenbase
Evenbase is a global digital recruitment group. Our aim is to revolutionise the matching of
talent with opportunity and make the recruitment process better for everyone involved.
As one of the world’s top 4 digital recruitment brands, the Evenbase portfolio includes the
flagship job board brands Jobsite and Oilcareers, the leading multi-poster and unified
search provider Broadbean, Jobrapido (one of the world’s largest job search aggregators)
and recruitment partnerships with brands such as 02 Active and the UK’s National Health
Service (NHS). The Evenbase portfolio spans 55 countries, includes a network of over 60
recruitment sites and employs more than 400 people.
Web: www.evenbase.com
Twitter: @evenbase
Blog: www.evenbase.com/evenmore
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/evenbase
MBA & Company
MBA & Company is a global community of MBAs, PhDs and professors from the world’s
leading business schools such as Harvard, London Business School, Wharton, INSEAD and MIT.
It was recently selected as a New York City Venture Fellow by Mayor Bloomberg and Sir
Martin Sorrell as well as being selected as one of the Top 10 Future Brands in the UK.
Web: www.mbaandco.com
Twitter: @mbaandcompany
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