t - Regional Climate Group

Precipitation occurrence processes (cont.)
The transition probabilities for Cambridge, UK are as follows
dry-to-wet (p 01 ) = 0.291
wet-to-wet (p 11 ) = 0.654
Therefore it follows (for a two state model) that
dry-to-dry (p 00 ) = 1 - p 01 = 0.709
wet-to-dry (p 10 ) = 1 - p 11 = 0.346
This approach may be extended from a first-order to n th -order model
by considering transitions that depend on states on days t-1, t-2…...t-n
(as in Gregory et al., 1993).
Göteborg University http://www.gvc2.gu.se/rcg Regional Climate Group
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